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WillMacAskill_2018-_在我们的时代中，最重要的道德问题是什么？_
This is a graph that represents the economic history of human civilization . 这是一张图, 图上的是人类文明的经济历史。
represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明;
[World GDP per capita over the last 200,000 years] 【过去二十万年的 世界人均国内生产总额】
per capita:adj.每人的;人均的;
There's not much going on, is there. 图上没多少东西。
For the vast majority of human history, pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day, and not much changed. 人类历史大部分的时期, 几乎人人都是一天 用一块美金在过日子, 没有很大的改变。
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
But then, something extraordinary happened: the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions . 接着,不凡的事发生了: 科学和工業革命。
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; Scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; Industrial:adj.工业的,产业的; n.工业股票; Revolutions:n.革命,转数(revolution的复数形式);
And the basically flat graph you just saw transforms into this. 各位刚刚看到几乎是平坦的图形 转变成这样。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; transforms:v.[数][电]变换; n.语法转化规则;
What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world, we live in an unprecedented time in human history, and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact. 这张图的意义是, 就改变世界的力量来说, 我们处在人类历史上 前所未见的时代, 且我认为我们的伦理领会 还没有赶上这些发展。
unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的; ethical:adj.伦理的;道德的;凭处方出售的;n.处方药;
The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions transformed both our understanding of the world and our ability to alter it. 科学和工業革命 转变了我们对世界的了解 及我们改变世界的能力。
transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式) alter:v.更改;修改(衣服使更合身);
What we need is an ethical revolution so that we can work out how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources to improve the world. 我们需要的是伦理革命, 这样我们才能想出 我们要如何使用这么丰富的资源 来改善世界。
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; bounty:n.慷慨; vt.发给…奖金等; vi.以赏金等形式发放; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); improve:v.改进;改善;
For the last 10 years, my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program that we call effective altruism . 在过去十年间, 我和我同事在开发 一个哲学和研究的计画, 我们称它为「有效利他主义」。
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); philosophy:n.哲学;哲理;人生观; effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; altruism:n.利他;利他主义;
It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world, uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question: 这个计画是在尝试对世界上的 这些极端改变做出应变, 使用证据和谨慎的推论 来试着回答这个问题:
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
How can we do the most good? 我们要如何做至善的善事？
Now, there are many issues you've got to address if you want to tackle this problem: whether to do good through your charity or your career or your political engagement , what programs to focus on, who to work with. 你需要处理许多议题, 才能解决这个问题: 是否透过慈善事業、 职業或参与政治来行善, 要投入什么计画,要和谁合作。
issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) tackle:v.处理; n.用具; charity:n.慈善;施舍;慈善团体;宽容;施舍物; career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; engagement:n.婚约;约会;交战;诺言;n.参与度;
But what I want to talk about is what I think is the most fundamental problem. 但我想要谈的 是我认为最基本的问题。
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
Of all the many problems that the world faces, which should we be focused on trying to solve first? 世界所面临的这么多问题当中, 我们应该聚焦优先解决哪一个？
Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question, and the framework is very simple. 我要提供各位一个架构, 用来思考这个问题, 且这个架构很简单。
A problem's higher priority , the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is. 优先顺序高的迫切问题是 大的、容易解决的,和被忽视的。
priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事; solvable:adj.可以解决的;可以解的;可溶的; neglected:adj.被忽略的; v.忽略; (neglect的过去分词和过去式)
Bigger is better, because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem. 越大越好, 因为若能解决这个问题, 我们就能得到比较多。
More easily solvable is better because I can solve the problem with less time or money. 比较容易解决比较好, 因为我可以花费较少的时间 和金钱来解决这个问题。
And most subtly , more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns. 最微妙的一点是, 越被忽视越好,理由是报酬递减。
subtly:adv.精细地;巧妙地;敏锐地; diminishing:v.减少; adj.逐渐缩小的;
The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem, the harder it will be to make additional progress. 已经投入来解决 这个问题的资源越多, 就越难再做出额外的进展。
invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式) additional:adj.附加的,额外的;
Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework, so that you can think for yourself what are the highest global priorities . 我想要留给各位的关键, 就是这个架构, 这样各位就可以自己想想, 全球最高优先顺序的事是哪些。
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; priorities:n.优先事项;优先权;重点;(priority的复数)
But I and others in the effective altruism community have converged on three moral issues that we believe are unusually important, score unusually well in this framework. 但我和有效利他主义社区中的其他人 已经有共识,我们认为 有三项道德议题是特别重要的, 在这个架构中得到的分数特别高。
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; converged:adj.收敛的;聚合的;v.聚集,使会聚(converge的过去式); moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的; unusually:adv.非常;异乎寻常地;显著地;
First is global health. 第一是全球健康。
This is supersolvable . 这个议题是超级可以解决的。
supersolvable:用法,发音,音标,搭配,同义词,反义词和例句等在线英语服务。;
We have an amazing track record in global health. 关于全球健康,我们有 很惊人的过去记录资料。
track record:n.径赛成绩记录;过去的成绩或成就;
Rates of death from measles , malaria , diarrheal disease are down by over 70 percent. 麻疹、霍乱、痢疾的死亡率 下降了超过 70%。
measles:n.[内科]麻疹;风疹; malaria:n.[内科]疟疾;瘴气; diarrheal:adj.腹泻的; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox . 1980 年,我们根绝了天花。
eradicated:adj.画着根的;v.摆脱;擦掉;连根拔起(eradicate的过去分词); smallpox:n.[内科]天花;
I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives. 依我估计,这就拯救了 超过六千万条性命。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本; thereby:adv.从而,因此;在那附近;在那方面;
That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace in that same time period. 就算能在那个时期达成世界和平, 也救不了这么多人。
On our current best estimates , we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets for just a few thousand dollars. 依我们目前最佳的估计, 只要能发放用杀虫剂处理过的 持久性蚊帐就能拯救一条性命, 成本不过几千美元。
estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数) distributing:v.分发;分配;分销;使散开;使分布;分散;(distribute的现在分词) long-lasting:adj.持续时间长的;
This is an amazing opportunity. 这是一个很棒的机会。
The second big priority is factory farming. 第二个优先议题,是工厂化养殖。
This is superneglected. 这个议题被严重忽略了。
There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food, and the vast majority of them are factory farmed, living in conditions of horrific suffering. 每年,有五百亿只陆地动物被食用, 牠们绝大多数都是工厂化养殖的, 生活条件非常恶劣、痛苦。
horrific:adj.可怕的;令人毛骨悚然的;
They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet, and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives for just pennies per animal. 牠们可能是地球上最不幸的生物, 在许多案例中,我们都可以 大幅改善牠们的生活, 每只动物只要几分钱即可。
creatures:n.生物;动物;(具有某种特征的)人(creature的复数) significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地;
Yet this is hugely neglected. 但这个议题却被严重忽视。
There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms than there are stray pets, but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding . 工厂化养殖的动物数量 但工厂化养殖得到的慈善资金 却只有五十分之一。
stray:v.迷路; adj.走失的; n.走失的宠物(或家畜); fiftieth:num.第五十;五十分之一;adj.第五十的;五十分之一的; philanthropic:adj.博爱的;仁慈的; funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词)
That means additional resources in this area could have a truly transformative impact . 这就意味着,在这个领域 若有额外的资源, 就能产生真正带来改变的影响。
transformative:adj.变化的,变形的;有改革能力的; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most, and that's the category of existential risks: events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic that could permanently derail civilization or even lead to the extinction of the human race . 第三个领域是我最想要拿来谈的, 就是生存风险这个类别: 像核武战争或全球流行病这类事件, 能够让文明永久脱轨, 或甚至导致人类的灭绝。
category:n.种类,分类;[数]范畴; existential:adj.存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的; pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病; permanently:adv.永久地,长期不变地; derail:v.(火车)使出轨;出轨;n.脱轨;[铁路]脱轨器; extinction:n.绝种; human race:n.人类;
Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority in terms of this framework. 让我用这个架构 来解释为什么我认为 这是个高优先的议题。
First, size. 首先,大小。
How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe ? 如果真的发生了 攸关生死存亡的大灾难会多糟？
catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败;
Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet and that means you and everyone you know and love. 嗯, 包括你和你认识、你爱的所有人。
involve:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;
That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size. 这个悲剧大到无法想像。
tragedy:n.悲惨的事;不幸;灾难;悲剧作品; unimaginable:adj.不可思议的;难以想像的;
But then, what's more, it would also mean the curtailment of humanity 's future potential , and I believe that humanity 's potential is vast. 但,还不只如此, 它也意味着人类未来的 潜能会被限制, 而我相信人类的潜能很大。
curtailment:n.缩减;削减;缩短;紧缩; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
The human race has been around for about 200,000 years, and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species , she would last for about two million years. 人类已经存在有大约二十万年了, 如果人类能活得跟典型的 哺乳动物物种一样久, 就能活大约两百万年。
as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然; typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的; mammalian:adj.哺乳类动物的;n.哺乳类; species:n.[生物]物种;种类;
If the human race were a single individual , she would be just 10 years old today. 如果把整体人类看成是单一个体, 人类现在才只有十岁而已。
individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的;
And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species. 此外,人类并不是 典型的哺乳动物物种。
There's no reason why, if we're careful, we should die off after only two million years. 如果我们够小心, 我们不可能只存在 两百万年就绝种。
The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come. 在接下来的五亿年, 地球都仍然会是适合居住的。
habitable:adj.可居住的;适于居住的;
And if someday, we took to the stars, the civilization could continue for billions more. 若有一天,我们能到其他星球, 文明就还可以再延续数十亿年。
So I think the future is going to be really big, but is it going to be good? 所以我认为未来将会非常大, 但未来会很好吗？
Is the human race even really worth preserving ? 人类真的值得保护吗？
preserving:n.保留,保存;
Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse, but I think that when we take the long run, things have been getting radically better. 嗯,我们总是听到有人说 事物变得更糟糕, 但我认为,从长期来看, 一切都彻底地变好了。
radically:adv.根本上;彻底地;以激进的方式;
Here, for example, is life expectancy over time. 比如,这是各时期的预期寿命。
life expectancy:预期寿命;
Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty . 这是非处于极度贫穷 生活条件的人口比例。
proportion:n.比例;部分;份额;均衡;v.摊派;使相称; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality . 这是各时期让同性恋 合法化的国家数目。
decriminalized:vt.使合法化;非刑事化(等于decriminalise); homosexuality:n.同性恋;
Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic . 这是各时期民主国家的数目。
democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的;
Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again. 当我们看向未来,会发现 还有好多可以获得的。
We'll be so much richer, we can solve so many problems that are intractable today. 我们会富有许多, 我们能够解决许多现今的棘手问题。
intractable:adj.棘手的;难治的;倔强的;不听话的;
So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed in terms of total human flourishing over time, well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like. 如果就全人类随时间 而过得更好的层面上来看, 这张图算是某种人类进步图, 那么我们预期未来进步 会是像这样子的。
flourishing:adj.繁荣的;繁茂的;v.繁荣;兴旺;茁壮成长;(flourish的现在分词)
It's vast. 它很广大。
Here, for example, is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty. 以这一点为例, 我们预期到这时候就没有人 会过着极度贫穷的生活。
Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off than the richest person alive today. 在这里,我们预期人人都会 比现今最富有的人过得更好。
Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws that govern our world. 也许在这里,我们会 发现管理我们世界的 基本自然法则。
Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art, a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear. 也许在这里,我们会 发现全新的艺术形式, 我们目前没有办法听见的音乐形式。
currently:adv.当前;一般地;
And this is just the next few thousand years. 这只是接下来的几千年。
Once we think past that, well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach. 一旦我们想到更远的时间, 我们甚至无法想像 人类的成就能够有多高。
accomplishment:n.成就;完成;技艺,技能;
So the future could be very big and it could be very good, but are there ways we could lose this value? 所以,未来可能是非常大, 也可能是非常好的, 但我们会不会 以某些方式失去这价值？
And sadly, I think there are. 很不幸,我认为有可能。
The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress, but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war and the possibility of extreme climate change. 过去两个世纪, 发生了很巨大的技术进步, 但也带来了核武战争的全球风险, 以及极端气候改变的可能性。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的;
When we look to the coming centuries, we should expect to see the same pattern again. 当我们看向接下来的几世纪, 我们应该会预期 再次看到同样的模式。
And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon . 我们能看到一些 极强大的技术即将问世。
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); horizon:n.地平线;(欲望、知识或兴趣的)范围;
Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality . 合成生物学可能让我们能创造出 具有前所未见感染力 和致命度的病毒。
Synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的;n.合成物; biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; contagiousness:n.接触传染性; lethality:n.杀伤力;致命性;毁坏性;
Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate. 地球工程可能让我们 能大大改变地球的气候。
Geoengineering:地质工程;岩土工程; dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地;
Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents with abilities greater than our own. 人工智慧可能让我们能创造出
Artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的 agents:n.代理人,经纪人;原动力;(agent的复数)
Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely, but when there's so much at stake , even small probabilities matter a great deal. 我并不是说上述这些风险 特别有可能发生, 但当赌注有这么高的时候, 即使很低的机率也是非常要紧的。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; stake:n.桩,棍子;赌注;火刑;奖金;v.资助,支持;系…于桩上;把…押下打赌; probabilities:可能性;[统计]概率(probability的复数);
Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous, and the pilot reassures you by saying, "There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry." 想像一下,如果你要 上飞机,且你蛮紧张的, 而驾驶员说了 这样的话来向你保证: 「坠机的机会只有 一千分之一。别担心。」
reassures:vt.使…安心,使消除疑虑;
Would you feel reassured ? 你会觉得安心吗？
reassured:adj.使消除疑虑的;使放心的;v.使安心;再次保证(reassure的过去式);
For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity is among the most important problems that we currently face. 基于这些理由, 我认为保护人类的未来 是我们目前所面临 最重要的问题之一。
But let's keep using this framework. 但,咱们继续用这个架构吧。
Is this problem neglected? 这个问题有被忽视吗？
And I think the answer is yes, and that's because problems that affect future generations are often hugely neglected. 我认为答案是「有」, 那是因为会影响未来世代的问题 通常被严重忽视。
Why? 为什么？
Because future people don't participate in markets today. 因为未来的人并没有 参与现今的市场。
participate:v.参加;参与;
They don't have a vote. 他们没有投票权。
It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests of those born in 2300 AD. 并没有一个游说团会代表 2300 年出生者的利益。
lobby:n.大堂;门厅;民众接待厅;游说;v.游说(从政者或政府); representing:v.代表;维护…的利益;等于;相当于;(represent的现在分词)
They don't get to influence the decisions we make today. 他们无法影响我们现今所做的决策。
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
They're voiceless . 他们无法发声。
voiceless:adj.无声的;清音的;沉默的;
And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues: nuclear nonproliferation , geoengineering, biorisk , artificial intelligence safety. 那就表示,我们在 这些议题上投入非常少: 防止核武器扩散、 地球工程、生物危险、 人工智慧安全性。
paltry:adj.不足取的;无价值的;琐碎的;卑鄙的; nonproliferation:n.防扩散;防止(核)扩散; biorisk:生物风险;
All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars of philanthropic funding every year. 所有这些议题每年都只得到 几千万美元的慈善资金。
That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars that's spent on US philanthropy in total. 这个数字相对很小, 因为美国的总慈善金额 为三千九百亿美元。
compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) philanthropy:n.博爱,慈善;慈善事业;
The final aspect of our framework then: 接着,架构的最后一个面向:
aspect:n.方面;层面;外观;方位;
Is this solvable? 它是可解决的吗？
I believe it is. 我相信是的。
You can contribute with your money, your career or your political engagement. 你可以贡献你的金钱、 你的职業,或你的政治参与。
contribute:v.贡献,出力;投稿;捐献;
With your money, you can support organizations that focus on these risks, like the Nuclear Threat Initiative , which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert , 若你投入金钱,你可以资助组织, 让它们着重这些风险, 比如「核威胁倡议」, 它在做的是不要让核武 处在一触即发的警戒状态,
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构; Initiative:n.倡议;主动性;积极性;主动权;adj.起始的; hair-trigger:adj.一触即发的;n.微扣扳机; alert:n.警报; adj.警觉的; v.向…报警;
or the Blue Ribbon Panel , which develops policy to minimize the damage from natural and man-made pandemics , or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable . 或「蓝丝带小组」, 它在做的是开发政策, 或「人类相容人工智慧中心」, 它是在做技术研究, 确保人工智慧系统的安全可靠。
Ribbon:n.丝带; v.用丝带装饰; Panel:n.镶板;仪表盘;钣金;(衣服上的)镶条;v.镶板(用木或玻璃板等镶嵌或装饰); policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; minimize:v.使减少到最低限度;降低;贬低;使显得不重要; man-made:adj.人造的;人工的;合成的; pandemics:大流行;流行病; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的; ensure:vt.保证,确保;使安全; reliable:adj.可信赖的;可依靠的;真实可信的;可靠的;
With your political engagement, you can vote for candidates that care about these risks, and you can support greater international cooperation . 若你投入的是政治参与, 你可以投票给在乎 这些风险的候选人, 你也可以支持更大的国际合作。
cooperation:n.合作;配合;
And then with your career, there is so much that you can do. 若你投入的是职業, 你能做的非常多。
Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders, but just as importantly, we also need accountants and managers and assistants to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems. 当然,我们需要科学家、 政策制订者,和组织领导人, 但,同样重要的, 我们也需要会计师、经理人和助理, 在这些能够处理 这些问题的组织中工作。
policymakers:n.决策人;(policymaker的复数) accountants:n.会计;会计师;(accountant的复数) tackling:n.装备,用具;扭住;v.处理;抓住;(tackle的现在分词);
Now, the research program of effective altruism is still in its infancy , and there's still a huge amount that we don't know. 有效利他主义的研究专案 还在初期阶段, 还有很多我们不知道的。
infancy:n.初期;婴儿期;幼年;
But even with what we've learned so far, we can see that by thinking carefully and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected, we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world for thousands of years to come. 但,就我们目前所知道的来说, 我们可以看到,若能谨慎思考, 并把焦点放在那些可解决、 被忽视的大问题上, 我们就能在接下来的数千年, 真正造成很大的不同,改变世界。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）