返回首页

VittorioLoreto_2017S-_需要新想法吗？从已知领域的边缘开始吧_
We have all probably wondered how great minds achieved what they achieved, right? 我们可能都纳闷过, 有才智的人如何达成 他们的成就,对吧？
And the more astonishing their achievements are, the more we call them geniuses , perhaps aliens coming from a different planet, definitely not someone like us. 他们的成就越是惊人, 我们就越会称他们为天才, 抑或外星人, 来自不同星球的, 肯定不是像我们这样的人。
astonishing:adj.令人十分惊讶的;v.使十分惊讶;使吃惊;(astonish的现在分词) geniuses:n.天才;天资;才能,本领;(genius的复数) definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
But is that true? 但真的如此吗？
So let me start with an example. 让我从一个例子说起。
You all know the story of Newton 's apple, right? OK. 你们都听过牛顿的苹果 这个故事,对吧？好。
Newton:n.牛顿(英国科学家);牛顿(力的单位);
Is that true? Probably not. 那是真的吗？可能不是。
Still, it's difficult to think that no apple at all was there. 但,很难想像那里根本没有苹果。
I mean some stepping stone , some specific conditions that made universal gravitation not impossible to conceive . 我是指具备某些垫脚石, 某些特定条件, 才有可能让万有引力被构想出来。
stepping stone:n.踏脚石;方法,手段; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; gravitation:n.重力;万有引力;地心吸力; conceive:v.想出;想象;构想;设想;怀孕;
And definitely this was not impossible, at least for Newton. 这个肯定不是不可能的, 至少对牛顿而言。
It was possible, and for some reason, it was also there, available at some point, easy to pick as an apple. 它是可能的, 基于某种理由,它也在那里, 在某个时点是可得的, 就像苹果一样容易摘取。
Here is the apple. 这里有个苹果。
And what about Einstein? 那爱因斯坦呢？
Was relativity theory another big leap in the history of ideas no one else could even conceive? 相对论是想法史上的另一个大跃进, 没有其他人能想出来？
relativity:n.相对论;相关性;相对性; leap:n.跳越;跳跃;跳高;骤变;v.跳;跳跃;跳越;猛冲;
Or rather, was it again something adjacent and possible, to Einstein of course, and he got there by small steps and his very peculiar scientific path? 或者同样的,那是某种 有前后关联、有可能的东西吗？ 对爱因斯坦而言当然是如此, 他靠着小步伐和他非常奇特的 科学路径而到达那里。
adjacent:adj.邻近的,毗连的; peculiar:adj.特殊的;独特的;奇怪的;罕见的;n.特权;特有财产; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
Of course we cannot conceive this path, but this doesn't mean that the path was not there. 当然,我们无法设想出这条路径, 但这并不表示路径不在那里。
So all of this seems very evocative , but I would say hardly concrete if we really want to grasp the origin of great ideas and more generally the way in which the new enters our lives. 这一切似乎都非常有感召力, 但我会说,算不上实在, 如果我们真的想要了解 伟大想法的源头, 或更一般化地去了解新想法 进入我们生活的方式。
evocative:adj.唤起的;唤出的; concrete:n.混凝土;adj.混凝土制的;确实的,具体的;vt.用混凝土覆盖 grasp:n.抓住;理解;控制;v.抓住;领会; origin:n.起源;起因;源头;出身; generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
As a physicist , as a scientist, 身为物理学家,身为科学家,
physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者;
I have learned that posing the right questions is half of the solution . 我学到一件事,问对问题, 就已经完成一半的解答了。
posing:v.造成;引起;产生;提问;摆好姿势;(pose的现在分词) solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
But I think now we start having a great conceptual framework to conceive and address the right questions. 但我认为,现在我们开始 有很伟大的概念架构, 来设想并处理对的问题。
conceptual:adj.概念上的;
So let me drive you to the edge of what is known, or at least, what I know, and let me show you that what is known could be a powerful and fascinating starting point 让我带各位到已知领域的边缘, 至少是我已知的领域, 让我展示给各位看,已知事物 可以是个非常强大且迷人的起始点,
fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词) starting point:n.出发点;基础;
to grasp the deep meaning of words like novelty , innovation , creativity perhaps. 来了解像是新颖、创新, 也许还有创意,这类字词的 深刻意义。
novelty:n.新奇;新奇的事物;新颖小巧而廉价的物品; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
So we are discussing the "new," 所以,我们要讨论「新事物」,
and of course, the science behind it. 当然,还有它背后的科学。
The new can enter our lives in many different ways, can be very personal , like I meet a new person, 新事物可藉由许多不同 方式进入我们的生活, 可能是非常个人化的, 就像我新结识一个人,
personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词;
I read a new book, or I listen to a new song. 我读了一本新书, 或我听了一首新歌。
Or it could be global , 也可能是全球性的,
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
I mean, something we call innovation. 我指的是我们所谓的创新。
It could be a new theory, a new technology , but it could also be a new book if you're the writer, or it could be a new song if you're the composer . 可能是一个新理论、一种新技术, 但也可能是一本新书, 若你是作家的话, 也可能是一首新歌, 若你是作曲家的话。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; composer:n.作曲家;作家,著作者;设计者;
In all of these global cases, the new is for everyone, but experiencing the new can be also frightening , so the new can also frighten us. 在所有这些全球性的例子中, 新的事物是给所有人的, 但体验新的事物也可能很吓人, 所以新的事物也可能会吓坏我们。
frightening:adj.可怕的;骇人的;引起恐惧的;v.使惊吓;使惊恐(frighten的现在分词)
But still, experiencing the new means exploring a very peculiar space, the space of what could be, the space of the possible, the space of possibilities. 但,体验新的事物仍然 意味着探索一个奇特的空间, 「可能是怎样」的空间, 「可能之事物」的空间, 「可能性」的空间。
exploring:v.探索:考察:探查;(explore的现在分词)
It's a very weird space, so I'll try to get you through this space. 它是个非常怪异的空间, 所以我会试着带各位穿过它。
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神;
So it could be a physical space. 它可能是个实体空间。
physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查;
So in this case, for instance , novelty could be climbing Machu Picchu for the first time, as I did in 2016. 比如,在这个例子中, 「新颖」有可能是 初次爬上马丘比丘, 像我在 2016 年的体验一样。
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例;
It could be a conceptual space, so acquiring new information, making sense of it, in a word, learning. 它也可能是个概念空间, 取得新资讯,从中找出道理, 一言以蔽之,就是学习。
acquiring:n.捕获,探测;习得;瞄准;v.获得;(acquire的现在分词);
It could be a biological space. 它有可能是个生物空间。
biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品;
I mean, think about the never-ending fight of viruses and bacteria with our immune system . 想想看,我们的免疫系统 对抗病毒和细菌的战争, 永无止境。
never-ending:adj.不停的;无限的; bacteria:n.[微]细菌; immune system:n.免疫系统;
And now comes the bad news. 现在坏消息来了。
We are very, very bad at grasping this space. 我们非常非常不擅长了解这个空间。
grasping:adj.贪婪的;紧紧抓住的;v.理解,领会;抓紧,抓牢;(grasp的现在分词形式)
Think of it. Let's make an experiment. 想想这一点。咱们来做个实验。
Try to think about all the possible things you could do in the next, say, 24 hours. 比如,试想在接下来的 24 小时, 所有你有可能会做的事情。
Here the key word is "all." 这里的关键字是「所有」。
Of course you can conceive a few options , like having a drink, writing a letter, also sleeping during this boring talk, if you can. 当然,你可以想出几个可能选项, 比如喝杯酒、写封信, 或是在这场无聊的演讲中睡一觉, 如果你能的话。
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
But not all of them. 但你无法想出所有选项。
So think about an alien invasion , now, here, in Milan, or me -- I stopped thinking for 15 minutes. 所以,想想外星人入侵, 现在,在这里,在米兰, 或是我──我停止思考 15 分钟。
invasion:n.武装入侵;侵略;侵犯;涌入;干预;
So it's very difficult to conceive this space, but actually we have an excuse. 所以,要想出这个空间 是非常困难的, 但其实,我们有一个藉口。
So it's not so easy to conceive this space because we are trying to conceive the occurrence of something brand new , so something that never occurred before, so we don't have clues . 所以,要想出这个空间并不很容易, 因为我们在试着想出 全新事物的发生, 以前从来没有发生过的事物, 所以我们会没头绪。
occurrence:n.发生;出现;存在;发生的事情; brand new:adj.崭新的;最近获得的; occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式) clues:n.(调查,研究等的)线索;迹象;(故事的)关键情节;(clue的复数)
A typical solution could be looking at the future with the eyes of the past, so relying on all the time series of past events and hoping that this is enough to predict the future. 典型的解决方案可能是, 用过去的眼睛来看未来, 所以,仰赖所有 过去事件的时间序列, 希望这些资讯足以预测未来。
typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的; relying:v.依赖;信任;指望(rely的现在分词); series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; predict:v.预报;预言;预告;
But we know this is not working. 但我们知道这行不通。
For instance, this was the first attempt for weather forecasts , and it failed. 比如,第一次天气预测的 尝试就失败了。
attempt:n.企图,试图;攻击;v.企图,试图;尝试; forecasts:n.[气象][通信]预测; v.预言;
And it failed because of the great complexity of the underlying phenomenon . 之所以会失败,是因为 这背后现象的复杂度太高。
complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 underlying:adj.根本的; v.构成…的基础; (underlie的现在分词) phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
So now we know that predictions had to be based on modeling, which means creating a synthetic model of the system, simulating this model and then projecting the system into the future through this model. 所以,现在我们知道, 预测必须要立基在模型上, 那就表示,创造出 一个系统的合成模型, 模拟这个模型,接着把这个系统透过 这个模型投射到未来。
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的;n.合成物; simulating:n.模拟;假装;
And now we can do this in a lot of cases with the help of a lot of data. 在许多情况下我们都能做到这一点, 只要能有大量资料的幫忙。
Looking at the future with the eye of the past could be misleading also for machines. 用过去的眼睛看未来, 对于机器来说也有可能会造成误导。
misleading:adj.误导的;引入歧途的;v.误导;引入歧途;使误信;(mislead的现在分词)
Think about it. 想想这一点。
Now picture yourself for a second in the middle of the Australian Outback . 试想一下,你身处澳洲内陆中间。
Outback:n.内地;adv.在内地;往内地;adj.内地的;
You stand there under the sun . 你站在太阳底下。
under the sun:天下;究竟;
So you see something weird happening. 你看到奇怪的事情发生。
The car suddenly stops very, very far from a kangaroo crossing the street. 车突然停下来, 离正在过街的袋鼠非常非常远。
kangaroo:袋鼠
You look closer and you realize that the car has no driver. 你靠近些看, 你发现那台车没有人驾驶。
It is not restarting , even after the kangaroo is not there anymore. 它没有重新启动, 即使袋鼠已经不在那里了。
restarting:n.重新起动;再引弧;v.重新启动(restart的ing形式);
So for some reasons, the algorithms driving the car cannot make sense of this strange beast jumping here and there on the street. 基于某些理由, 负责开车的演算法无法理解 这只奇怪的野兽在街上跳来跳去。
make sense of:搞清…的意思; here and there:各处,到处;
So it just stops. 所以它停下来了。
Now, I should tell you, this is a true story. 我可以告诉各位,这是真实故事。
It happened a few months ago to Volvo's self-driving cars in the middle of the Australian Outback. 这是几个月前富豪自动驾驶车 在澳洲内陆中碰到的状况。
self-driving:自驾;
(Laughter) （笑声）
It is a general problem, and I guess this will affect more and more in the near future artificial intelligence and machine learning. 这是个一般性的问题, 我猜这对于未来的 人工智慧和机器学习 会有越来越多的影响。
artificial intelligence:n.人工智能;
It's also a very old problem, I would say 17th century, but I guess now we have new tools and new clues to start solving it. 这也是个很古老的问题, 我会说是 17 世纪, 但我想现在我们有新的工具 和新的线索可以开始解决它。
So let me take a step back, five years back. 所以,让我先退后一步, 回到 5 年前。
Italy. Rome. Winter. 义大利。罗马。冬天。
So the winter of 2012 was very special in Rome. 2012 年罗马的冬天非常特别。
Rome witnessed one of the greatest snowfalls of its history. 那次降雪量在罗马史上名列前茅。
witnessed:v.当场看到,目击;见证;作证;(witness的过去式和过去分词) snowfalls:n.降雪;降雪量;
That winter was special also for me and my colleagues , because we had an insight about the possible mathematical scheme -- again, possible, possible mathematical scheme, to conceive the occurrence of the new. 那年冬天对我 和我同事而言也很特别, 因为我们对于一项可能的 数学方法有了洞见── 同样,只是「可能的」数学方法, 能构想出新事物的发生。
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); insight:n.洞察力;洞悉; mathematical:adj.数学的,数学上的;精确的; scheme:n.计划;方案;体系;体制;阴谋;v.密谋;图谋;想;认为;
I remember that day because it was snowing, so due to the snowfall, we were blocked, stuck in my department, and we couldn't go home, so we got another coffee, we relaxed and we kept discussing. 我记得那天,是因为在下雪, 因为降雪,我们被困在 我的系所里,走不了, 我们无法回家, 所以我们再喝了一杯咖啡,放轻鬆, 我们持续讨论。
relaxed:adj.轻松的;冷静的;v.放松;休息;宽慰;(relax的过去分词和过去式)
But at some point -- maybe not that date, precisely -- at some point we made the connection between the problem of the new and a beautiful concept proposed years before by Stuart Kauffman, the adjacent possible. 但在某个时点── 精确来说也许不是那天── 在某个时点,我们建立了连结, 把新事物的问题连结到 几年前提出的一个美丽概念, 由斯图亚特考夫曼提出的 「相邻可能」。
proposed:adj.建议的;推荐的;v.提议;建议;计划;求婚;(propose的过去分词和过去式) Stuart:斯图亚特王室的;
So the adjacent possible consists of all those things. 相邻可能包含了所有这些东西。
consists:v.由…构成;由…组成(consist的三单形式);
It could be ideas, it could be molecules , it could be technological products that are one step away from what actually exists, and you can achieve them through incremental modifications and recombinations of the existing material. 可能是想法,可能是分子, 可能是技术产品, 它们都距离真正存在的事物 还有一步之差, 你可以达成它们, 只要透过对既有素材做 渐增的修正以及重新组合。
molecules:n.[化学]分子,微粒;[化学]摩尔(molecule的复数); technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; incremental:adj.增加的,增值的; modifications:n.修改;改进;改变;(modification的复数) recombinations:n.[遗]重组; (recombination的复数);
So for instance, if I speak about the space of my friends, my adjacent possible would be the set of all friends of my friends not already my friends. 比如,如果我说到我朋友的空间, 我的相邻可能就是「我朋友的朋友中 还没成为我朋友的那些人」 所形成的集合。
I hope that's clear. 我希望这样够清楚。
But now if I meet a new person, say Briar , all her friends would immediately enter my adjacent possible, pushing its boundaries further. 但若我新结识一个人, 比如布莱儿, 她所有的朋友就马上会 进入到我的相邻可能, 把其边界进一步向外推。
Briar:n.荆棘;石南;用石南根制成之烟斗; boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数)
So if you really want to look from the mathematical point of view -- 所以,如果你想要从 数学的角度来看──
point of view:观点;见地;立场;
I'm sure you want -- you can actually look at this picture. 我相信你们想── 你们可以看看这张图。
So suppose now this is your universe. 假设这是你的宇宙。
suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想:
I know I'm asking a lot. 我知道我要求很多。
I mean, this is your universe. Now you are the red spot. 这是你的宇宙,你是那个红点。
And the green spot is the adjacent possible for you, so something you've never touched before. 绿点是你的相邻可能, 它是你以前没碰过的东西。
So you do your normal life. 你过着你的正常生活。
You move. You move in the space. 你移动,你在空间中移动。
You have a drink. You meet friends. You read a book. 你去喝杯酒。你去见朋友。 你读一本书。
At some point, you end up on the green spot, so you meet Briar for the first time. 在某个时点,你会到达绿点, 你会初次见到布莱儿。
And what happens? 会发生什么事？
So what happens is there is a new part, a brand new part of the space, becoming possible for you in this very moment, even without any possibility for you to foresee this before touching that point. 发生的事是,会有一个新的部分, 这空间会有一个全新的部分, 在此时刻变成是对你来说有可能的, 即使你在接触这个点之前 不可能预见此事。
foresee:vt.预见;预知;
And behind this there will be a huge set of points that could become possible at some later stages. 这背后就是许多的点, 在后续某些阶段就会成为可能。
So you see the space of the possible is very peculiar, because it's not predefined . 所以,可能性的空间是非常奇特的, 因为它不是预先定义的。
predefined:adj.[计]预先定义的;v.预先确定(predefine的过去式);
It's not something we can predefine. 它不是能被预先定义的。
It's something that gets continuously shaped and reshaped by our actions and our choices. 它是会因为我们的行为和选择而不断 持续形成和重塑的东西。
continuously:adv.连续不断地; reshaped:vt.改造;再成形;
So we were so fascinated by these connections we made -- scientists are like this. 我们做的这些连结, 让我们非常着迷── 科学家就像这样。
And based on this, we conceived our mathematical formulation for the adjacent possible, 20 years after the original Kauffman proposals . 根据这个, 我们想出了相邻可能的数学方程式, 在考夫曼最初 提出这概念的 20 年后。
conceived:v.构思;设想;(conceive的过去式); formulation:n.构想,规划;公式化;简洁陈述; original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的; proposals:n.建议书(Proposal的复数);求婚;
In our theory -- this is a key point -- 在我们的理论中──这是一项关键──
I mean, it's crucially based on a complex interplay between the way in which this space of possibilities expands and gets restructured , and the way in which we explore it. 很重要的是,它是立基在 复杂的相互影响上, 可能性空间扩张和被重新架构的方式, 与我们探索它的方式, 两者间的相互影响。
crucially:adv.关键地;至关重要地; interplay:n.相互影响,相互作用;vi.相互影响,相互作用; expands:v.展开; (expand的第三人称单数) restructured:v.改组;调整;重组结构(restructure的过去分词); explore:v.探索:探测:探险:
After the epiphany of 2012, we got back to work, real work, because we had to work out this theory, and we came up with a certain number of predictions to be tested in real life. 在 2012 年的主显节之后, 我们回到工作状态,真正的工作, 因为我们得发展出这理论, 我们做出了一些预测, 在真实人生中测试。
epiphany:对事物真谛的顿悟;
Of course, we need a testable framework to study innovation. 当然,我们需要一个可测试的架构 才能研究创新。
testable:adj.可试验的;有资格立遗嘱的;可根据遗嘱处理的;有资格作证人的;
So let me drive you across a few predictions we made. 让我带各位看看我们做的几个预测。
The first one concerns the pace of innovation, so the rate at which you observe novelties in very different systems. 第一个和创新的步调有关, 也就是你观察不同系统中 新奇之处的速度。
concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式); observe:v.观察;看到;庆祝;监视; novelties:n.新奇礼品;纪念品;新奇产品;新奇事物(novelty的复数);
So our theory predicts that the rate of innovation should follow a universal curve , like this one. 我们的理论预测, 创新率应该会遵循一种通用的曲线, 像这种。
predicts:vt.预报,预言;预知;vi.作出预言;作预料,作预报; curve:n.曲线;弯曲;曲面;弧线;v.(使)沿曲线移动;呈曲线形;
This is the rate of innovation versus time in very different conditions. 这是在不同情况下 随时间变化的创新率。
versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
And somehow , we predict that the rate of innovation should decrease steadily over time. 我们预测出的创新率 会随着时间稳定下降。
somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地; decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置; steadily:adv.稳定地;稳固地;有规则地;
So somehow, innovation is predicted to become more difficult as your progress over time. 所以我们预测,随时间进展, 创新会变得越来越困难。
predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式)
It's neat . It's interesting. It's beautiful. We were happy. 它很棒。它很有趣。 它很美好。我们很开心。
neat:adj.整洁的;整齐的;有序的;有条理的;
But the question is, is that true? 但问题是,那是真的吗？
Of course we should check with reality. 当然,我们要确认现实状况。
So we went back to reality and we collected a lot of data, terabytes of data, tracking innovation in Wikipedia , Twitter, the way in which we write free software, even the way we listen to music. 所以,我们回到现实, 我们收集了许多资料, 几兆位元组的资料, 追踪在维基百科、推特的创新, 我们撰写免费软体的方式, 甚至我们听音乐的方式。
terabytes:n.兆兆字节(信息量度单位,terabyte的复数); tracking:n.追踪,跟踪;v.跟踪;(track的现在分词) Wikipedia:维基百科;
I cannot tell you, we were so amazed and pleased and thrilled to discover that the same predictions we made in the theory were actually satisfied in real systems, many different real systems. 我无法告诉各位我们有 多么惊讶、开心,和兴奋, 因为我们发现, 我们在理论上做的预测, 实际上也符合真实系统, 许多不同的真实系统。
thrilled:adj.非常兴奋; v.使非常兴奋; (thrill的过去分词和过去式) satisfied:adj.满意的:满足的:v.使满意:使满足;(satisfy的过去分词和过去式)
We were so excited. 我们好兴奋。
Of course, apparently , we were on the right track, but of course, we couldn't stop, so we didn't stop. 当然,显然,我们的方向是对的, 但当然,我们无法停止, 所以我们没有停止。
apparently:adv.显然地;似乎,表面上;
So we kept going on, and at some point we made another discovery that we dubbed " correlated novelties." 我们持续下去, 在某个时点,我们有了另一个发现, 我们称之为「相关新奇」。
dubbed:v.把…戏称为; (dub的过去分词和过去式) correlated:v.相互关联影响;相互依赖;(correlate的过去式和过去分词)
It's very simple. 它非常简单。
So I guess we all experience this. 我想我们都经历过。
So you listen to "Suzanne" by Leonard Cohen, and this experience triggers your passion for Cohen so that you start frantically listening to his whole production. 如果你听了李欧纳柯恩的歌《苏珊》, 这体验触发了你对柯恩的热情, 所以你开始疯狂地听他的所有作品。
triggers:n.[电子]触发器;触发物(trigger的复数);v.引起(trigger的单三形式);引爆; passion:n.激情;热情;酷爱;盛怒; frantically:adv.疯狂似地;狂暴地;
And then you realize that Fabrizio De André here recorded an Italian version of "Suzanne," 接着,你发现法布里奇奥德安德烈 录制了《苏珊》的义大利版本,
and so on and so forth. 诸如此类。
So somehow for some reason, the very notion of adjacent possible is already encoding the common belief that one thing leads to another in many different systems. 所以,基于某种原因, 相邻可能的概念已经被编写在 「一件事会导致另一件事」的 这个一般看法中, 在许多不同系统中皆是如此。
notion:n.观念;信念;理解; encoding:n.[计]编码;v.[计]编码(encode的ing形式);
But the reason why we were thrilled is because actually we could give, for the first time, a scientific substance to this intuition and start making predictions about the way in which we experience the new. 但我们很兴奋的原因, 是因为这是第一次,我们能够赋予 这种直觉一个科学本质, 并开始做出预测, 预测我们会如何体验新事物。
substance:n.物质;实质;主旨;物品; intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识;
So novelties are correlated. 所以,新奇的事物是相关联的。
They are not occurring randomly . 它们不是随机发生的。
occurring:n.事件;事故;事变; randomly:adv.随便地,任意地;无目的,胡乱地;未加计划地;
And this is good news, because it implies that impossible missions might not be so impossible after all, if we are guided by our intuition, somehow leading us to trigger a positive chain reaction . 这是好消息, 因为这意味着,不可能的任务 归根结底,也许不是那么不可能, 如果我们让直觉引导我们, 带领我们去触发 一种正向的连锁反应。
implies:v.意味着(imply的第三人称单数);蕴含;暗指; missions:n.任务; v.给…交代任务; (mission的复数) positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; chain reaction:连锁反应;
But there is a third consequence of the existence of the adjacent possible that we named "waves of novelties." 但相邻可能的存在 会有第三项后果, 我们称之为「新奇波浪」。
consequence:n.结果;重要性;推论;
So just to make this simple, so in music, without waves of novelties, we would still be listening all the time to Mozart or Beethoven , which is great, but we don't do this all the time. 简单来说,在音乐方面, 若没有新奇波浪, 我们都还会一直在听 莫札特和贝多芬, 他们的音乐很棒, 但我们不会一直听。
Beethoven:n.贝多芬(德国作曲家);
We also listen to the Pet Shop Boys or Justin Bieber -- well, some of us do. 我们也会听宠物店男孩 或小贾斯汀──嗯,有些人会。
(Laughter) （笑声）
So we could see very clearly all of these patterns in the huge amounts of data we collected and analyzed . 我们可以在我们收集 并分析的大量资料中, 清楚看到所有这些模式。
analyzed:v.分析(analyze的过去式和过去分词);检讨;
For instance, we discovered that popular hits in music are continuously born, you know that, and then they disappear , still leaving room for evergreens . 比如,我们发现, 音乐中的流行热门歌曲 不断产生出来,你们知道这点, 接着它们就消失了,留下空间 给不褪流行的长青歌曲。
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在; evergreens:n.常青树(evergreen的复数);
So somehow waves of novelties ebb and flow while the tides always hold the classics . 所以,新奇波浪会退潮和流动, 而潮流会一直留住经典。
ebb:n.衰退;退潮;衰落;vi.衰退;减少;衰落;潮退; tides:n.[海洋]潮汐(tide的复数);v.随潮水漂浮(tide的第三人称单数); classics:n.经典;名著;杰作;(classic的复数)
There is this coexistence between evergreens and new hits. 长青歌曲和新热门曲之间 有这种共存现象。
coexistence:n.共存;和平共处;并立;
Not only our theory predicts these waves of novelties. 我们的理论不只是 预测这些新奇波浪。
This would be trivial . 这没什么。
trivial:adj.不重要的,琐碎的;琐细的;
But it also explains why they are there, and they are there for a specific reason, because we as humans display different strategies in the space of the possible. 而是它也解释了为什么它们会出现, 它们的出现是有特殊理由的, 因为我们人类在可能性的空间中 展现出不同的策略。
display:n.显示;炫耀;vt.显示;表现;陈列;vi.[动]作炫耀行为;adj.展览的;陈列用的; strategies:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;(strategy的复数)
So some of us tend to retrace already known paths. 我们有些人会倾向折返已知的路径。
retrace:v.沿原路返回;折回;追溯;找出;回顾;
So we say they exploit . 我们说他们是在「利用」。
exploit:v.利用…为自己谋利;剥削;压榨;运用;发挥;
Some of us always launch into new adventures. 有些人总是要展开新的冒险。
launch into:进入,投入;
We say they explore. 我们说他们是在「探索」。
And what we discovered is all the systems we investigated are right at the edge between these two strategies, something like 80 percent exploiting , 20 percent exploring, something like blade runners of innovation. 我们发现,所有被我们研究的系统, 都在这两项策略间的边缘上, 比如 80% 的利用,20% 的探索, 像是创新的「银翼杀手」（电影）。
investigated:v.侦查;调查;研究;(investigate的过去分词和过去式) exploiting:v.利用…为自己谋利;剥削;压榨;运用;发挥;(exploit的现在分词) blade:n.叶片;刀片,刀锋;剑;
So it seems that the wise balance, you could also say a conservative balance, between past and future, between exploitation and exploration , is already in place and perhaps needed in our system. 似乎,明智的平衡, 你也可以说是保守的平衡, 在过去和未来间、 在利用和探索间的平衡, 已经就位了, 且是我们的系统所需要的。
conservative:adj.保守的;n.保守派,守旧者; exploitation:n.开发,开采;利用;广告推销; exploration:n.探索;勘探;探险;[医]探查术;
But again the good news is now we have scientific tools to investigate this equilibrium , perhaps pushing it further in the near future. 但同样的,好消息是 我们现在有科学工具 在研究这种均衡, 也许能将它再推展到不远的将来。
equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力;
So as you can imagine, 不难想像,
I was really fascinated by all this. 我深深着迷于这一切。
Our mathematical scheme is already providing cues and hints to investigate the space of possibilities and the way in which all of us create it and explore it. 我们的数学方法已经 在提供提示和暗示, 来探究可能性空间, 以及我们所有人创造它、 探索它的方式。
cues:n.开端,线索;提示,关键;球杆;诱因(cue的复数形式); hints:n.暗示,提示(hint的复数形式);v.暗示,示意(hint的单三形式);
But there is more. 但不只如此。
This, I guess, is a starting point of something that has the potential to become a wonderful journey for a scientific investigation of the new, but also I would say a personal investigation of the new. 我想,这只是个起始点,它还有潜力 能变成美好的旅程, 对于新事物做科学的研究, 还有对于新事物做个人的研究。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
And I guess this can have a lot of consequences and a huge impact in key activities like learning, education, research, business. 我想,这可能会有很多后果, 在关键活动中也会有重大影响, 比如学习、教育、研究、商業。
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
So for instance, if you think about artificial intelligence, 举例来说,想想人工智慧,
I am sure -- I mean, artificial intelligence, we need to rely in the near future more and more on the structure of the adjacent possible, to restructure it, to change it, but also to cope with the unknowns of the future. 我很确定──我是说,人工智慧, 在不远的将来,我们会 越来越需要依赖相邻可能的结构, 来重新架构它、改变它, 同时也要应对未来的未知。
cope:v.处理;n.大圆衣;
In parallel , we have a lot of tools, new tools now, to investigate how creativity works and what triggers innovation. 同样的,我们有很多工具, 新工具,可用来探究 创意是如何运作的, 以及是什么触发了创新。
parallel:adj.平行的; v.与…相似; n.极其相似的人(或情况、事件等);
And the aim of all this is to raise a generation of people able to come up with new ideas to face the challenges in front of us. 这一切的目标, 是要提升一个世代的人, 让他们能提出新的点子, 来面对我们眼前的挑战。
come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
We all know. 我们都知道。
I think it's a long way to go, but the questions, and the tools, are now there, adjacent and possible. 我认为还有很长的路要走, 但问题以及工具都具备了, 是相邻的,也是可能的。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）