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TimHarford_2011G-_试验，排除错误和万能神力_
It's the Second World War, a German prison camp , and this man, 这是二战期间, 一个德国集中营, 这个人,
prison camp:n.集中营;战俘营;
Archie Cochrane, is a prisoner of war and a doctor, and he has a problem. 阿奇·卡克伦, 是战俘也是一名医生, 他遇到了一个问题,
Archie:n.高射炮(等于archibald); prisoner of war:n.战俘;俘虏;
The problem is that the men under his care are suffering from an excruciating and debilitating condition that Archie doesn't really understand. 这个问题是他看护的人们 正在承受 病痛和衰弱的煎熬。 阿奇不明白是怎么回事。
excruciating:adj.折磨人的;极痛苦的;极坏的;v.折磨;使受酷刑;(excruciate的现在分词) debilitating:adj.使衰弱的;v.使虚弱(debilitate的ing形式);
The symptoms are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin. 这种症状是 皮肤下面有可怕水肿。
symptoms:n.症状;征候;征兆;(symptom的复数) horrible:可怕的,极讨厌的, swelling:n.膨胀;肿胀;肿胀处;v.膨胀;肿胀;(使)鼓出;(使)增加;(swell的现在分词) fluids:n.液体;流体;液;(fluid的复数)
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection , whether it's to do with malnutrition . 他不知道这是一种感染,还是营养不良造成的。
infection:n.感染;传染;(身体某部位的)感染;传染病; malnutrition:n.营养失调,营养不良;
He doesn't know how to cure it. 他不知道怎样提供治疗。
And he's operating in a hostile environment. 他是在一个充满敌意的环境里工作。
hostile:adj.敌意的; n.敌对分子;
And people do terrible things in wars. 而人们常常在战争期间做可怕的事情。
The German camp guards, they've got bored . 德国集中营的守卫无聊的时候。
bored:adj.无聊的;厌倦的;烦闷的;v.使厌烦;钻,凿,挖;(bore的过去分词和过去式)
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random for fun. 他们会对着集中营随意扫射 来寻开心。
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地;
On one particular occasion, one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners lavatory while it was full of prisoners. 特别是有一次, 一个守卫朝犯人的厕所里扔了枚手榴弹, 里面满是犯人。
grenade:n.手榴弹;灭火弹;v.扔手榴弹;用催泪弹攻击; lavatory:n.厕所,盥洗室;
He said he heard suspicious laughter. 他说他听到了可疑的笑声。
suspicious:adj.可疑的;怀疑的;多疑的;
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor, was one of the first men in to clear up the mess . 而阿奇·卡克伦,作为集中营的医生, 是第一个进去 处理惨状的人。
mess:n.混乱;餐厅;杂乱;肮脏;v.使不整洁;弄脏;弄乱;随地便溺;
And one more thing: 另外,
Archie was suffering from this illness himself. 阿奇自己也受着这个疾病的困扰,
So the situation seemed pretty desperate . 所以情况是非常危急。
desperate:adj.不顾一切的;令人绝望的;极度渴望的;
But Archie Cochrane was a resourceful person. 但是阿奇·卡克伦 是一个足智多谋的人。
resourceful:adj.资源丰富的;足智多谋的;机智的;
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp, and now he managed to get hold of supplies of marmite on the black market . 他已经将维生素C带到了集中营, 现在他又想办法 从黑市上弄到了 一些马麦。
smuggled:v.走私;私运;偷运(smuggle的过去分词和过去式) vitamin:n.维生素;维他命; get hold of:把握;抓住;得到; marmite:n.酸制酵母;砂锅;大型有盖汤锅; black market:在黑市卖;做黑市交易;
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is. 你们中的一些人也许会问马麦是什么,
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British. 马麦英国人热爱的早餐面包酱,
beloved:adj.心爱的;挚爱的;n.心爱的人;亲爱的教友;
It looks like crude oil. 它看上去象天然油。
crude:adj.粗略的;简略的;大概的;粗糙的;n.原油;石油;
It tastes ... 味道
zesty . 很浓
zesty:adj.兴致很高的;vt.给…增兴趣;
And importantly, it's a rich source of vitamin B12. 更重要的是, 它含有丰富的 维他命B12。
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can into two equal groups. 所以阿奇就把他的病人平分 成两组人。
He gives half of them vitamin C. 他给其中的一半维他命C。
He gives half of them vitamin B12. 他给另一半维他命B12。
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results in an exercise book . 他非常小心谨慎把他的结果 记录在一个练习簿上。
meticulously:adv.细致地;一丝不苟地;拘泥地; exercise book:n.练习本;练习册;作业本;
And after just a few days, it becomes clear that whatever is causing this illness, marmite is the cure. 几天以后 结果显然表明 不管是病因是什么 马麦能帮助治愈这个病。
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp. 所以卡克伦跑去跟管理集中营的德国人说。
Now you've got to imagine at the moment -- forget this photo, imagine this guy with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair. 你想象一下那一刻, 别看这张照片, 你想象一下这个家伙 一下巴淡黄色大胡子,一头刺眼的红发
ginger:n.生姜;姜;姜黄色;adj.姜黄色的;v.使更有生气;鼓舞;刺激
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure. 他好久没有修面,有点象比利·康诺利那个样子
shave:v.刮胡子;(尤指)刮脸;(少量地)削减;n.修面;刮脸;剃须;
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans in this Scottish accent -- in fluent German, by the way , but in a Scottish accent -- and explains to them how German culture was the culture that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world. 卡克伦开始数落那些德国人, 带着苏格兰口音, 其实他讲着一口流利的德语,只是带点苏格兰口音 他对他们说他无法理解 能够为世界带来席勒和歌德的
ranting:n.吼闹;v.咆哮;激昂地说(rant的ing形式); accent:n.口音;重音;强调;特点;重音符号;v.强调;重读;带…口音讲话; fluent:adj.流畅的,流利的;液态的;畅流的; by the way:顺便说一下; Schiller:n.青铜色光泽;
And he can't understand how this barbarism can be tolerated . 德国文化怎么可以容忍 如此的野蛮。
barbarism:n.野蛮;原始;未开化;暴虐; tolerated:v.容许;忍受;包容;有耐受性;(tolerate的过去式和过去分词)
And he vents his frustrations . 他发了一通牢骚
vents:n.[矿业]通风孔(vent的复数);排空(气)阀;通风管;管乐类; frustrations:n.沮丧;受阻;阻止;挫败;(frustration的复数)
And then he goes back to his quarters, breaks down and weeps because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless. 然后就回到了他的住处, 倒头哭泣 因为他认为这个状况无可救药。
weeps:vi.哭泣; vt.哭泣; n.哭泣; convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式)
But a young German doctor picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book and says to his colleagues , "This evidence is incontrovertible . 但是另一个年轻的德国医生 拿起了阿奇·卡克伦的练习簿 对他的同僚说 这个证据是不用质疑的
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; incontrovertible:adj.无可争议的;无疑的;明白的;
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners, it's a war crime ." “如果我们不给犯人提供维生素 这是战争犯罪”。
vitamins:n.[生化]维生素;[生化]维他命; war crime:n.战争罪行(违反国际战争公约的战时行为);
And the next morning, supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp, and the prisoners begin to recover. 第二天早上, 含维他命B12的物资被送到了集中营, 犯人开始恢复。
Now I'm not telling you this story because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude , although Archie Cochrane is a dude. 我现在跟你们讲这个故事, 不是因为我认为阿奇·卡克伦是个人物, 虽然阿奇·卡克伦本来就是个人物。
dude:n.男人,小伙子;(非正式)花花公子;
I'm not even telling you the story because I think we should be running more carefully controlled randomized trials in all aspects of public policy , although I think that would also be completely awesome . 我跟你说这个故事也不是 因为我认为我们应该更小心地 随机抽样试验。 在公共政策的各个方面 虽然我觉得这样做完全会很好。
randomized:adj.[数]随机化的,随机的;v.使随机化;做任意排列(randomize的过去分词); aspects:n.方面;相位;面貌(aspect的复数); policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; awesome:adj.令人敬畏的;使人畏惧的;可怕的;极好的;
I'm telling you this story because Archie Cochrane, all his life, fought against a terrible affliction . 我告诉你这个故事 是因为阿奇·卡克伦的一生, 都在与一种可怕的痛苦做斗争。
affliction:n.苦难;苦恼;折磨;
And he realized it was debilitating to individuals and it was corrosive to societies. 而且他认识到这是一种削弱个人 和腐蚀社会的东西。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); corrosive:adj.腐蚀的;侵蚀性的;n.腐蚀物;
And he had a name for it. 他为它取了个名字,
He called it the God complex . 他把它称为:万能神力（自以为有能力解决复杂问题的本事）
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily. 现在我可以来描述万能神力的症状
describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
So the symptoms of the complex are, no matter how complicated the problem, you have an absolutely overwhelming belief that you are infallibly right in your solution . 它的症状是: 无论问题多么复杂 你还是绝对彻底相信 你的解决方案是准确无误的
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式) absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; overwhelming:adj.势不可挡的; v.压倒; (overwhelm的现在分词) infallibly:adv.绝无错误的; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
Now Archie was a doctor. 阿奇是个医生
So he hung around with doctors a lot. 他一直和医生们在一起
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot. 医生就常常患有这种毛病
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor, but I see the God complex around me all the time in my fellow economists. 我是个经济学家, 我不是医生 我在我周围也一直看到这种“万能神力”的症状 出现在我的经济学家伙伴中
I see it in our business leaders. 我看见它存在于我们的商业领袖身上
I see it in the politicians we vote for -- people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world, are nevertheless absolutely convinced that they understand the way that the world works. 我们看见它存在于我们推选的政客身上。 这些人面对这及其复杂的世界 仍然绝对坚信 他们知道这个世界是怎样运作的
politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数) in the face of:面对; incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; nevertheless:adv.然而,不过;虽然如此;conj.然而,不过;
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about, the world is simply far too complex to understand in that way. 而你们知道,我们在这里听到的未来的数十亿人的种种 用那种方法来理解这个复杂 的世界显然是太简单化了
Well let me give you an example. 让我来给你们一个例子
Imagine for a moment that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you, there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs. 你们想象一下 现在如果站在你们面前的不是我 而是汉斯·罗斯林在展示他的图表
You know Hans: the Mick Jagger of TED. 你们知道汉斯: TED的米克·贾格尔
Mick:n.米克(男子名);(贬)爱尔兰人; Jagger:n.有齿的凿子;刻锯齿者;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics , these amazing animations . 他给你们展示了这些神奇的数据 神奇的动画
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数) animations:n.[电影]动画片(animation的复数);
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work. 它们很出色,很棒的研究结果
But a typical Hans Rosling graph: think for a moment, not what it shows, but think instead about what it leaves out. 但是汉斯的图表: 想一下,不是那些已经展示的 而是想一下那些没有被展示的。
typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的;
So it'll show you GDP per capita , population, longevity , that's about it. 是,里面包括了人均国内生产总值 人口,寿命 就这些
per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; longevity:n.长寿,长命;寿命;
So three pieces of data for each country -- three pieces of data. 每个国家三个数据 三个数据
Three pieces of data is nothing. 三个数据什么都不是
I mean, have a look at this graph. 我是说,请看一下这张图
have a look at:看一看,看一眼;
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo . 这张图是物理学家塞萨尔·伊达尔戈制作的
physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者; Cesar:n.恺撒,古罗马帝王; Hidalgo:n.西班牙的绅士(低于最高贵族,大公);西班牙的下级贵族;
He's at MIT. 他在麻省理工工作
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it, but this is what it looks like. 你一个字也不懂 但是它看上去是这个样子的
Cesar has trolled the database of over 5,000 different products, and he's used techniques of network analysis to interrogate this database and to graph relationships between the different products. 塞萨尔用数据库搜索 5000个不同的产品, 他用网络分析的技术 提取分析数据 并用图表来表示不同产品间的关系
trolled:vt.轮唱,使转动; vi.参加轮唱; n.轮唱; techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数) analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; interrogate:v.讯问;审问;盘问;查询;
And it's wonderful, wonderful work. 那是非常非常好的工作
You show all these interconnections , all these interrelations . 展示了所有这些互相的关系和链接
interconnections:n.相互连接;彼此连系; interrelations:n.相互关系;
And I think it'll be profoundly useful in understanding how it is that economies grow. 我想这些对理解经济怎样增长 是极其有用的
profoundly:adv.深刻地;深深地;极度地; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Brilliant work. 是杰作
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for the New York Times magazine explaining how this works. 塞萨尔和我试着想要给纽约时代杂志 写一篇稿子描述这个工作
And what we learned is Cesar's work is far too good to explain in the New York Times magazine. 我们发现 塞萨尔的研究成果远不是一篇 纽约时代杂志的文章可以描述得清楚的
5,000 products -- that's still nothing. 5000个产品 这还没什么
5,000 products -- imagine counting every product category in Cesar Hidalgo's data. 5000个产品 想象我们来数塞萨尔·伊达尔戈数据 中的每个产品的目录
category:n.种类,分类;[数]范畴;
Imagine you had one second per product category. 想象你每一秒钟 听到一个产品种类的名字
In about the length of this session , you would have counted all 5,000. 大约用这段会议的时间 你可以数完5000个产品
session:n.会议;(法庭的)开庭;(议会等的)开会;学期;讲习会;
Now imagine doing the same thing for every different type of product on sale in Walmart . 现在你再想象去数各种 不同的在沃尔玛销售的产品
Walmart:n.沃尔玛(世界连锁零售企业);
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day. 那有10万种, 那大概需要一天才能数完
Now imagine trying to count every different specific product and service on sale in a major economy such as Tokyo, London or New York. 现在你想象去数 在主要经济体中销售的 每种不同的特殊产品和服务 比如,东京, 伦敦,或者纽约
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan . 在爱丁堡就更难了 因为你得数所有的威士忌和格子呢绒
Edinburgh:n.爱丁堡(英国城市名); whisky:n.威士忌酒;adj.威士忌酒的; tartan:n.格子呢(苏格兰);adj.格子呢的;
If you wanted to count every product and service on offer in New York -- there are 10 billion of them -- it would take you 317 years. 如果你要数在纽约提供的 产品和服务 那就有100亿种 你得数317年
This is how complex the economy we've created is. 这就是我们创造的复杂的经济体
And I'm just counting toasters here. 而我这只是在这里数烤面包机而已
toasters:n.烤箱;烤面包器;
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem. 我没想去解决中东问题
Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部);
The complexity here is unbelievable . 所以问题的复杂性是不可思议的
complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 unbelievable:adj.(非正式)难以置信的;不可信的
And just a piece of context -- the societies in which our brains evolved had about 300 products and services. 我再提供一个背景数据 我们大脑演变的社会 具有300多种产品和服务
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; evolved:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成;(evolve的过去分词和过去式)
You could count them in five minutes. 你可以在5分钟里数完他们
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us. 所以这就是我们所处的环境的复杂性
This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting . 这也许也是为什么 我们发现“万能神力”很有吸引力
tempting:adj.吸引人的;诱惑人的;v.引诱;(tempt的现在分词);
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture, we can post some graphs, we get it, we understand how this works." 我们喜欢退一步说:“我们可以来画一个图, 我们可以贴一些图表, 我们知道这是怎么运作的。”
retreat:v.撤退;退却;后退;退缩;n.撤退;退却;退缩;退避;
And we don't. 但是我们不知道
We never do. 我们从来都不知道。
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here. 我不是要在这里传递一个虚无主义的信息
nihilistic:adj.虚无主义的;无政府主义的;
I'm not trying to say we can't solve complicated problems in a complicated world. 我不是想说我们不能在 复杂的世界里解决复杂的问题
We clearly can. 我们显然是可以的
But the way we solve them is with humility -- to abandon the God complex and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works. 但是我们需要用一种 谦逊的态度来解决问题 要抛弃“万能神力”的态度 而是用一个实际可行的解决问题的手法。
humility:n.谦卑,谦逊; abandon:n.狂热;放任;v.遗弃;放弃; problem-solving:adj.问题解决的;n.解决问题;找出问题的答案;
And we have a problem-solving technique that works. 我们有一个实际可行的解决问题的手法
Now you show me a successful complex system, and I will show you a system that has evolved through trial and error. 你给我举一个 成功的复杂系统 我就能显示给你看 这个系统是如何在试验和排除错误中不断演进的。
Here's an example. 这里有一个例子
This baby was produced through trial and error. 这个孩子是通过试验和排除错误而产生的
I realize that's an ambiguous statement . 我知道这是一个模糊的说法
ambiguous:adj.模糊不清的;引起歧义的; statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单;
Maybe I should clarify it. 也许我应该澄清
clarify:v.澄清;阐明;得到澄清;得到净化;
This baby is a human body: it evolved. 这个孩子是人类的身体:它进化了。
What is evolution ? 什么是进化？
evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
Over millions of years, variation and selection , variation and selection -- trial and error, trial and error. 经历了几百万年的变种和选择 变种和选择 试验和排除错误 试验和排除错误
variation:n.变异;变体;变奏;变种; selection:n.选择;选拔;挑选;被挑选的人(或物);
And it's not just biological systems that produce miracles through trial and error. 这不只是生物系统 在试验和排除错误中缔造神奇
biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品; miracles:n.奇迹;奇人;不平凡的事;(miracle的复数)
You could use it in an industrial context. 你可以把它用于产业环境中
industrial:adj.工业的,产业的; n.工业股票;
So let's say you wanted to make detergent . 比如你要生产清洁剂
detergent:n.清洁剂;去垢剂;
Let's say you're Unilever and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool . 你是联合利华 你要在利物浦旁边的一家工厂生产清洁剂
Liverpool:n.利物浦;
How do you do it? 你怎么做呢？
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent. 你有这么一大池子的液体清洁剂
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle . 你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴
pump:n.抽水机;泵;打气筒;v.用泵输送;涌出;奔流;快速摇动; nozzle:n.喷嘴;管口;鼻;
You create a spray of detergent. 你制造了清洁剂喷雾
spray:n.喷雾; v.喷;
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder . 喷雾干燥后就成了粉末
powder:n.粉末;细面;扑面粉;美容粉;v.傅粉;抹粉;
It falls to the floor. 掉在地板上,
You scoop it up. you put it in cardboard boxes. 你将它铲起,放入一个纸板盒子里。
scoop:n.勺;铲子;一勺(的量);独家新闻;v.用勺儿舀;用铲儿铲;捡起;抢先报道; cardboard:n.[纸]硬纸板;纸板箱;卡纸板;adj.不真实的;硬纸板制的;
You sell it at a supermarket. 你到超市去卖,
You make lots of money. 你可以赚好多钱。
How do you design that nozzle? 你怎么设计喷嘴
It turns out to be very important. 结果这个很重要
Now if you ascribe to the God complex, what you do is you find yourself a little God. 如果你倾向于用万能神力来解决这个问题 你会觉得自己是个小上帝
ascribe:vt.归因于;归咎于;
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist -- somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid. 你会发现自己是个数学家,物理学家 是一个懂得液体动态的专家
dynamics:n.动力学,力学;
And he will, or she will, calculate the optimal design of the nozzle. 他或者她会 计算管口的最佳设计方案
optimal:adj.最佳的;最理想的;
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work -- too complicated. 联合利华这么做了,但是失败了 太复杂了
Even this problem, too complicated. 即使是这样的问题,也太复杂了
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem -- trial and error, variation and selection. 但是遗传学家史蒂文琼斯教授 讲述了联合利华其实是怎样解决这个问题的 试验和失败 改变和选择
geneticist:n.遗传学者; describes:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;(describe的第三人称单数)
You take a nozzle and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle. 你拿一个管口 你随机地做出10个不同的管口
variations:n.变奏曲,变更;[生物]变种(variation的复数形式);
You try out all 10, you keep the one that works best. 你测试这10个管口,你把最好的那个保留下来
You create 10 variations on that one. 你再拿这个做基础再做10个不同的管口
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best. 你测试这10个,你把最好的保留下来
You try out 10 variations on that one. 你再这个基础上测试10个
You see how this works, right. 你知道这是怎么做出来的了吧？
And after 45 generations, you have this incredible nozzle. 经过45轮测试后 你们就得到了这个很好的喷嘴管口
incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
It looks a bit like a chess piece -- functions absolutely brilliantly . 这个看上去有点象国际象棋棋子 工作起来绝对高效
brilliantly:adv.灿烂地;辉煌地;光亮地;
We have no idea why it works, no idea at all. 我们不知道 为什么它那么高效 根本不知道
And the moment you step back from the God complex -- let's just try to have a bunch of stuff; let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not -- you can solve your problem. 当你不再认为自己有万能神力 而是开始尝试一些东西 用一个系统的办法来决定什么办法行什么办法不行 你就能解决你的问题
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; systematic:adj.系统的;体系的;有系统的;[图情]分类的;一贯的,惯常的; determining:v.查明;测定;准确算出;决定;支配;裁决;(determine的现在分词)
Now this process of trial and error is actually far more common in successful institutions than we care to recognize . 这个过程就是试验和排除错误的过程 事实上这是成功机构的一个很大的共性 只是我们认识得很不够
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;
And we've heard a lot about how economies function. 我们听过很多经济是如何运作的言论
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy. 美国的经济仍然是世界上最好的经济体
How did it become the world's greatest economy? 它怎么变成世界上最好的经济体的呢？
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures about the U.S. economy, but I think the most salient one is this: 10 percent of American businesses disappear every year. 我可以给你很多事实和数字 关于美国经济的 但是我想最突出的是这点: 每年10%的美国企业 会消失
salient:adj.显著的;突出的;跳跃的;n.凸角;突出部分; disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在;
That is a huge failure rate. 这是很高的失败率
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans. 这个失败率比美国人的失败率要高
10 percent of Americans don't disappear every year. 美国人并没有以10%的比率每年消失
Which leads us to conclude 所以我们可以总结说
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定)
American businesses fail faster than Americans, and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans. 美国企业比美国人消失得更快 因此美国企业比美国人进化得要快
evolving:v.(使)逐渐形成,逐渐演变;进化形成;(evolve的现在分词)
And eventually , they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection that they will make us all their pets -- 而最终, 他们进化到了完美的顶端 他们会把我们都变成他们的宠物
eventually:adv.最后,终于; peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; perfection:n.完善;完美;
(Laughter) （笑声）
if, of course, they haven't already done so. 如果,他们还没有这么做的话
I sometimes wonder. 我有时会想
But it's this process of trial and error that explains this great divergence , this incredible performance of Western economies. 但是试验和排除错误的过程 解释了这巨大的差异 西方经济的出色的表现。
divergence:n.分歧; performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演;
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge. 它的发生不是因为你让一些特别聪明的人掌管了一切
It's come through trial and error. 它是从试试验和排除错误中得来的
Now I've been sort of banging on about this for the last couple of months, and people sometimes say to me, "Well Tim, it's kind of obvious . 在过去的几个月里, 我反复 在讨论这个问题 有人有时跟我说 “提姆,这不是很显然么
banging:v.猛敲;砸;(把…)砰的关上;猛摔;砰地一扔;(bang的现在分词) obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
Obviously trial and error is very important. 很显然试验和排除错误很重要
Obviously experimentation is very important. 很显然尝试很重要
experimentation:n.实验;试验;
Now why are you just running around saying this obvious thing?" 你为什么到处讲这个显然的事情呢？”
So I say, okay, fine. 所以我说,好啊
You think it's obvious? 你认为这个很显然是吗？
I will admit it's obvious when schools start teaching children that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer. 我也会承认这个很显然 当学校 开始告诉孩子们 有时问题不总是有正确答案的时候
Stop giving them lists of questions every single one of which has an answer. 不再给他们一系列问题 每个问题都有一个答案
And there's an authority figure in the corner behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers. 而老师的桌子背后的角落里总是站着 一个知道所有答案的权威
authority:n.权威;权力;当局;
And if you can't find the answers, you must be lazy or stupid. 如果你找不到答案 你不是懒惰就是愚蠢
When schools stop doing that all the time, 当学习停止这么做时
I will admit that, yes, it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing. 我愿意承认 试验和排除错误显然是好事
When a politician stands up campaigning for elected office and says, "I want to fix our health system. 当政客们站出来 竞选公职时 他们说:“我想治理我们的健康系统
I want to fix our education system. 我想治理我们的教育体系
I have no idea how to do it. 我还不知道怎么做
I have no idea:我没有头绪…;
I have half a dozen ideas. 但是我又很多想法
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail. 我们会测试这些想法, 我们可能失败
Then we'll test some other ideas out. 然后我们会再测试其他想法
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those. 我们会发现有些有效的办法,然后在那个基础上继续建设
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." 我们会抛弃那些无效的做法。“
When a politician campaigns on that platform , and more importantly, when voters like you and me are willing to vote for that kind of politician, then I will admit that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you. 当政治家在那样的平台上竞选 更重要的是,象你我这样的选举人 愿意投票给这样的政治家 那我就承认 测试和排除错误显然是有效的,而那时, 我会对你们说:谢谢
platform:n.平台; v.把…放在台上[放在高处;
(Applause) （掌声）
Until then, until then 直到那个时候, 直到那个时候
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error and why we should abandon the God complex. 我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题 和为什么我们需要抛弃“万能神力”态度
Because it's so hard to admit our own fallibility . 因为我们很难 我们自己是很容易犯错的
fallibility:n.易误;不可靠;出错性;
It's so uncomfortable. 这令人感到很不舒服
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody. 阿奇·卡克伦和其他人一样理解这一点
as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且;
There's this one trial he ran many years after World War II. 这是他做的一个试验 那时在二战很多年后
He wanted to test out the question of, where is it that patients should recover from heart attacks? 他想要测试出 病人心脏病发作后 应该在哪里 康复
patients:n.接受治疗者,病人;(patient的复数)
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital, or should they recover at home? 他们是应该在医院的心脏科康复 还是在家康复
specialized:adj.专业的; v.专门研究(或从事); (specialize的过去式和过去分词) cardiac:n.强心剂;强胃剂;adj.心脏的;心脏病的;贲门的;
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down. 所有心脏科医生都想要把他挡在门外
They had the God complex in spades . 他们完全摆出拥有万能的神力的样子
spades:v.用铲挖(spade的三单形式);n.锹;铲;(纸牌中的)黑桃;(spade的复数)
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients. 他们知道医院才是病人康复的地方
And they knew it was very unethical to run any kind of trial or experiment. 他们觉得做任何试验都是 不道德的
unethical:adj.不道德的;缺乏职业道德的;
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this. 无论如何,阿奇得到了试验的许可
He ran his trial. 他进行了试验
And after the trial had been running for a little while, he gathered together all his colleagues around his table, and he said, "Well, gentlemen, we have some preliminary results. 试验进行了一阵后 他把他所有的同事召集起来 在他的桌子旁, 他说:“先生们, 我们已经有了初步的结果。
preliminary:n.准备;预赛;初步措施;adj.初步的;开始的;预备的;
They're not statistically significant . 这些数据在统计学上并不可观
statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上; significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
But we have something. 但是我们有了些数据
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong. 结果表明你们是正确的我是错的
It is dangerous for patients to recover from heart attacks at home. 让心脏病人在家 康复是危险的
They should be in hospital." 他们应该留在医院里。 ”
And there's this uproar , and all the doctors start pounding the table and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie. 这引起了一片吵嚷, 医生们开始拍桌子 说:“我们一直说阿奇你这样做是不道德的”
uproar:n.骚动;喧嚣;
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now. 你用你的临床试验在杀人,你应该现在就停止。
clinical:adj.临床的;诊所的;
Shut it down at once." 马上停止。“
And there's this huge hubbub . 阿奇等这一阵大声的吵嚷
hubbub:n.喧哗;骚动;
Archie lets it die down. 安静下来后
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen, because when I gave you the table of results, 说:“先生们, 真是很有意思, 因为当我给你们看结果的时候,
I swapped the two columns around. 我互换了这两行资料
swapped:交换;调换; columns:n.柱:(通常为)圆形石柱:(书,报纸印刷页上的)栏(column的复数)
It turns out your hospitals are killing people, and they should be at home. 其实结果证明你们的医院在杀人, 病人应该在家恢复。
Would you like to close down the trial now, or should we wait until we have robust results?" 你们还想让我停止试验呢 还是希望等我们得到更确切的结果？”
close down:关闭;停止播音; robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的;
Tumbleweed rolls through the meeting room. 会议室如风滚草 卷过一般安静下来
Tumbleweed:n.[植]风滚草;
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing. 阿奇喜欢做这样的事情
And the reason he would do that kind of thing is because he understood it feels so much better to stand there and say, "Here in my own little world, 他喜欢这么做的原因是 他知道 大家更喜欢 站在那里说: “ 在我的小世界里,
I am a god, I understand everything. 我是上帝, 我懂得一切
I do not want to have my opinions challenged. 我不希望有人挑战我的观点。
I do not want to have my conclusions tested." 我不需要有人来测试我的结论。”
conclusions:n.结论,总结;决定;(conclusion的复数)
It feels so much more comfortable simply to lay down the law . 简单地定下法则 然人感到很自在。
lay down the law:发号施令;立法;
Cochrane understood that uncertainty , that fallibility, that being challenged, they hurt. 阿奇懂得 他们对那种不肯定的, 易错的 被挑战的感觉感到不爽
uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that. 而有的时候我们需要把这种感觉震落掉
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy. 我不想假装这是件容易的事情
It isn't easy. 这并不容易
It's incredibly painful . 它会是个痛苦的过程
painful:adj.痛苦的;疼痛的;令人不快的;
And since I started talking about this subject and researching this subject, 当我开始谈论这个话题 研究这个话题
I've been really haunted by something a Japanese mathematician said on the subject. 我脑海里一直环绕着 一个日本数学家在这个话题上说的话
mathematician:n.数学家;善作数字计算的人;
So shortly after the war, this young man, Yutaka Taniyama, developed this amazing conjecture called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture. 战争一结束 这个年轻人,谷山丰 提出了惊人的推测 谷山-志村猜想
conjecture:n.推测;猜想;v.推测;揣摩;;
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental many decades later in proving Fermat's Last Theorem . 结果几十年后 为证明费马最后定理 奠定了基础
instrumental:n.工具格;器乐曲;工具词;adj.起重要作用;用乐器演奏的;为乐器谱写的; Theorem:n.[数]定理;原理;
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent to proving Fermat's Last Theorum. 事实,它和费马最后定理是 同等的
equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
You prove one, you prove the other. 你证明了一个,就证明了另一个
But it was always a conjecture. 但是它只是一个猜想
Taniyama tried and tried and tried and he could never prove that it was true. 谷山丰试了一遍又一遍 但是他不能证明它是正确的
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958, 1958年他刚刚过了30岁后
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself. 谷山丰结束了自己的生命
His friend, Goro Shimura -- who worked on the mathematics with him -- many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life. 他的朋友,志村五郎 和他一起研究数学 几十年后回顾谷山丰的生平时
mathematics:n.数学;数学运算; reflected:adj.反射的;得自他人的;v.反射;思考;(reflect的过去式和过去分词)
He said, "He was not a very careful person as a mathematician. 他说 “他不是一个很仔细的人 作为一个数学家
He made a lot of mistakes. 他犯了很多错误
But he made mistakes in a good direction. 但是他能朝好的方向犯错
I tried to emulate him, but I realized it is very difficult to make good mistakes." 我想效仿他 但是我发现 能朝好的方向犯错 很难。”
emulate:vt.仿真;模仿;尽力赶上;同…竞争;n.仿真;仿效;
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) （掌声）