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ThomasPiketty_2014S-_有关二十一世纪资本论的新观点_
It's very nice to be here tonight. 从所看到的史料中
So I've been working on the history of income and wealth distribution for the past 15 years, and one of the interesting lessons coming from this historical evidence is indeed that, in the long run , 过去15年来,我一直致力于研究 收入和财富分配的历史, 从所看到的史料中 我分析得出的一个有意思的现象是 从长远来看
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销; historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; in the long run:长远;终究;
there is a tendency for the rate of return of capital to exceed the economy 's growth rate, and this tends to lead to high concentration of wealth. 趋势是资本的收益率 超过经济增长率, 这将会导致财富的高度集中。
tendency:n.倾向,趋势;癖好; exceed:v.超过(数量);超越(法律、命令等)的限制; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; concentration:n.浓度;含量;集中;专心;
Not infinite concentration of wealth, but the higher the gap between r and g, the higher the level of inequality of wealth towards which society tends to converge . 但并不是财富的无限集中, 而是r(资本收益率)和g(经济增长率)之间比例的极不均衡, 以及财富分配的极不平等 这似乎是社会的发展走向。
infinite:adj.无限的,无穷的; n.无限; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; converge:vt.使汇聚;vi.聚集;靠拢;收敛;
So this is a key force that I'm going to talk about today, but let me say right away that this is not the only important force in the dynamics of income and wealth distribution, and there are many other forces that play an important role in the long-run dynamics of income and wealth distribution. 这是我今天将要谈的关键内容 但是我得明确一下 这不是唯一的 在收入和财富分配的变化中起到关键作用的因素 另外还有很多因素 在不断发展变化的收入和财富分配的过程中起到 重要作用。
right away:立刻; dynamics:n.动力学,力学; long-run:adj.长远的;长期;长跑;长时间操作;
Also there is a lot of data that still needs to be collected. 同时,还有 许多数据需要收集。
We know a little bit more today than we used to know, but we still know too little, and certainly there are many different processes — economic , social, political — that need to be studied more. 相比以前,现今我们对这个问题 了解的更多了,但是我们还是知之甚少, 另外,还应该在相关的不同领域, 例如经济,社会,政治等 投入更多的研究。
processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
And so I'm going to focus today on this simple force, but that doesn't mean that other important forces do not exist. 所以虽然今天我主要讨论的是关键因素 但并不是说其他重要因素 不存在了
So most of the data I'm going to present comes from this database that's available online: the World Top Incomes Database. 今天我大部分数据都 基于一个数据库 大家可以在网上找到: “世界顶级收入数据库“
So this is the largest existing historical database on inequality, and this comes from the effort of over 30 scholars from several dozen countries. 这是现有最大的 表现收入不平均的数据库, 其的建成有赖于 几十个国家的30个学者的努力。
scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数);
So let me show you a couple of facts coming from this database, and then we'll return to r bigger than g. 下面我们来看一下几个基于 数据库的事实, 然后我们再回到关于r > g的话题。
So fact number one is that there has been a big reversal in the ordering of income inequality between the United States and Europe over the past century. 事实一: 过去的一个世纪中 在美国和欧洲 收入的不平等的排名有了逆转。
reversal:n.逆转;[摄]反转;[法]撤销; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
So back in 1900, 1910, income inequality was actually much higher in Europe than in the United States, whereas today, it is a lot higher in the United States. 让我们回到1900-1910年间, 在这段时间里欧洲收入不平等远比美国严重, 而今天美国却远比欧洲严重的多。
whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之;
So let me be very clear: 所以我们可以清楚的得出结论:
The main explanation for this is not r bigger than g. 其中主要的原因不是 r 大于 g.
It has more to do with changing supply and demand for skill, the race between education and technology , globalization , probably more unequal access to skills in the U.S., where you have very good, very top universities 而是更多的跟技能的供给的改变有关, 在美国,教育和科技上的竞赛、 全球化的因素,可能导致更多的在技能获取方面的 不平等性, 在美国有非常好的,顶尖的大学
supply and demand:n.供求关系; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; globalization:n.全球化; unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的;n.不等同的事物;
but where the bottom part of the educational system is not as good, so very unequal access to skills, and also an unprecedented rise of top managerial compensation of the United States, which is difficult to account for just on the basis of education. 但是教育系统中的下层 就不是那么好了, 所以可以看到技能获取处于非常不平等的状态, 而且在美国管理层薪酬 空前高涨, 这个很难说是仅仅基于教育所造成的
educational:adj.教育的;有关教育的;有教育意义的 unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的; managerial:adj.经理的;管理的; compensation:n.补偿;报酬;赔偿金; account for:对…负有责任;对…做出解释;说明…的原因;导致;(比例)占; on the basis of:根据;基于…;
So there is more going on here, but I'm not going to talk too much about this today, because I want to focus on wealth inequality. 而是有多方面的因素 但是今天我不会过多地讨论这方面的问题, 因为我想关注的是财富的不平等。
So let me just show you a very simple indicator about the income inequality part. 所以我们就简单看看 不平等部分的指标。
indicator:n.指示器;[试剂]指示剂;[计]指示符;压力计;
So this is the share of total income going to the top 10 percent. 这个指数是顶级收入 占10%的数字
So you can see that one century ago, it was between 45 and 50 percent in Europe and a little bit above 40 percent in the U.S., so there was more inequality in Europe. 一个世纪之前 这个数字在欧洲是在45%到50%之间 在美国稍稍多于40% 所以看来当时欧洲处于更不平等的状态
Then there was a sharp decline during the first half of the 20th century, and in the recent decade, you can see that the U.S. has become more unequal than Europe, and this is the first fact I just talked about. 接下来这个数字的急剧的下降 时间是在20世纪中期 在最近的十年,您可以看到 跟欧洲相比,美国显得更不平等, 这就是我刚才讲提到的第一个事实。
sharp:锋利的,尖的 decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
Now, the second fact is more about wealth inequality, and here the central fact is that wealth inequality is always a lot higher than income inequality, and also that wealth inequality, although it has also increased in recent decades, is still less extreme today than what it was a century ago, although the total quantity of wealth relative to income has now recovered from the very large shocks caused by World War I, the Great Depression , 第二个事实更多的是在于财富的不平等, 事实的核心就是财富的不平等的比率 更高于收入不平等的比率, 而且尽管财富不平等 在近几十年中又有所增长 但是现在依然 低于一个世纪以前, 尽管现今的财富总量 与收入总量相比 已经从大冲击中恢复过来了, 这些冲击来自第一次世界大战、经济大萧条
extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额; relative:adj.相对的;有关系的;成比例的;n.亲戚;相关物;[语]关系词;亲缘植物; Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
World War II. 和第二次世界大战。
So let me show you two graphs illustrating fact number two and fact number three. 现在我们来看两个图表 用来说明事实二和事实三。
illustrating:图解;
So first, if you look at the level of wealth inequality, this is the share of total wealth going to the top 10 percent of wealth holders , so you can see the same kind of reversal between the U.S. and Europe that we had before for income inequality. 首先,如果你看一下所显示的财富不均等的数字, 总财富指数显示 财富集中于10%的富裕人群中 同类型的的逆转也存在于 我们刚才提到的美国和欧洲 并体现在收入的不平等上
holders:n.[专利]持有人(holder的复数);
So wealth concentration was higher in Europe than in the U.S. a century ago, and now it is the opposite. 所以就一个世纪前财富的集中度来说 欧洲比美国高, 而现在却相反了。
But you can also show two things: 可是你也可以看到两个事实:
First, the general level of wealth inequality is always higher than income inequality. 第一,财富不平等的整体水平 总是高于收入不平等。
So remember, for income inequality, the share going to the top 10 percent was between 30 and 50 percent of total income, whereas for wealth, the share is always between 60 and 90 percent. 所以要提醒大家的事,收入不平等中 前10%高收入者所占份额 占收入总量的30%-50%, 与此对照,前10%的财富持有者 占财富总量的60%-90%
Okay, so that's fact number one, and that's very important for what follows. 好了,这是事实一 这对于下面要讲的非常重要。
Wealth concentration is always a lot higher than income concentration. 财富集中度总是 远高于收入集中度。
Fact number two is that the rise in wealth inequality in recent decades is still not enough to get us back to 1910. 事实二是 近几十年来财富不平等加剧 还没有达到1910年水平。
So the big difference today, wealth inequality is still very large, with 60, 70 percent of total wealth for the top 10, but the good news is that it's actually better than one century ago, where you had 90 percent in Europe going to the top 10. 今天最大的区别是 财富不平等还非常严重, 前10%的高财富持有者占财富总量的60%-70% 不过好消息是现在 好于一个世纪以前, 当时欧洲10%的高财富持有者占财富总量的90%
So today what you have is what I call the middle 40 percent, the people who are not in the top 10 and who are not in the bottom 50, and what you can view as the wealth middle class that owns 20 to 30 percent of total wealth, national wealth, whereas they used to be poor, a century ago, when there was basically no wealth middle class. 今天您可以看到 中间40%的人, 就是除了前10% 和底层50%以外的人 您可以视之为财富中产阶级 占财富总量、国民财富的 20%-30%, 一个世纪前,他们更穷些, 那时基本上没有财富中产阶级。
middle class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
So this is an important change, and it's interesting to see that wealth inequality has not fully recovered to pre-World War I levels, although the total quantity of wealth has recovered. 这是一个重要的变化, 有意思的是财富不平等 没有恢复到一战前水平, 尽管财富总量已经恢复。
Okay? So this is the total value of wealth relative to income, and you can see that in particular in Europe, we are almost back to the pre-World War I level. 这是财富相对于收入的 总额 您可以看到特别在欧洲, 我们差不多回到了一战前水平。
in particular:尤其,特别;
So there are really two different parts of the story here. 这个件事有两个不同 的部分。
One has to do with the total quantity of wealth that we accumulate , and there is nothing bad per se , of course, in accumulating a lot of wealth, and in particular if it is more diffuse and less concentrated . 其一为, 我们积累财富的总量 这本身不是坏事, 我们积累了大量财富, 特别分布更平均 不那么集中。
accumulate:vi.累积;积聚;vt.积攒; per se:adv.本身;本质上; accumulating:n.[数]累加;v.积累(accumulate的ing形式); diffuse:adj.弥漫的;散开的;v.扩散;传播;漫射; concentrated:adj.决心要做的; v.集中(注意力); (concentrate的过去式和过去分词)
So what we really want to focus on is the long-run evolution of wealth inequality, and what's going to happen in the future. 这里我们关注 财富不平等的长期演化, 以及未来将要发生什么。
How can we account for the fact that until World War I, wealth inequality was so high and, if anything, was rising to even higher levels, and how can we think about the future? 我们如何解释,第一次世界大战前 财富不平等如此高 没有一战的话还会更高 我们如何设想未来？
So let me come to some of the explanations and speculations about the future. 让我来讲解和推测一下 未来。
speculations:n.投机;推测;思索;投机买卖;
Let me first say that probably the best model to explain why wealth is so much more concentrated than income is a dynamic, dynastic model where individuals have a long horizon and accumulate wealth for all sorts of reasons. 让我先说说 最好解释财富集中度高于 收入集中度 的动态模型 是一个动态模型 由于各种原因个人有长期 的财富积累期。
dynastic:adj.王朝的;朝代的; individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); horizon:n.地平线;(欲望、知识或兴趣的)范围;
If people were accumulating wealth only for life cycle reasons, you know, to be able to consume when they are old, then the level of wealth inequality should be more or less in line with the level of income inequality. 如果人们只为 生命周期积累财富, 这样就可以 老有所依, 这种情况下, 财富不平等应该和 收入不平等差不多。
life cycle:n.生命周期;寿命(产品等从开发到使用完毕的一段时间); consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁; more or less:或多或少; in line with:符合;与…一致;
But it will be very difficult to explain why you have so much more wealth inequality than income inequality with a pure life cycle model, so you need a story where people also care about wealth accumulation for other reasons. 但这很难解释 为什么财富不平等 更甚于收入不平等 如果仅用生命周期模型的话, 这里需要一个理由 人们还需要 关注财富积累的其他理由。
accumulation:n.积聚,累积;堆积物;
So typically , they want to transmit wealth to the next generation, to their children, or sometimes they want to accumulate wealth because of the prestige , the power that goes with wealth. 典型的是,人们想 为下一代积累财富,给他们的儿孙, 有时候人们积累财富 是为了随财富而来的威望和权力。
typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; transmit:v.传送;发射;播送;传播;传染; prestige:n.威望,声望;声誉;
So there must be other reasons for accumulating wealth than just life cycle to explain what we see in the data. 还有其他原因 不只是仅为老有所依而积累财富 来解释我们看到的数据。
Now, in a large class of dynamic models of wealth accumulation with such dynastic motive for accumulating wealth, you will have all sorts of random , multiplicative shocks. 如今,在一个大型的财富积累的 动态模型中 有动态积累财富的动机 且可进行所有随机的 乘法运算。
motive:n.动机; adj.发动的; v.同"motivate"; random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地; multiplicative:adj.[数]乘法的;增加的;n.乘法;倍数词;
So for instance , some families have a very large number of children, so the wealth will be divided. 例如,一些家庭 孩子很多 财富就会分散
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例;
Some families have fewer children. 一些家庭孩子少
You also have shocks to rates of return. 还要算上收益率的冲击。
Some families make huge capital gains . 一些家庭获得巨额资本收益
capital gains:n.(尤指出售固定资产所得的)资本收益;
Some made bad investments . 另一些投资失败
investments:n.[经]投资,投资的财产;投资学;(investment的复数)
So you will always have some mobility in the wealth process. 这样财富有更多的 流动性。
mobility:n.移动性;机动性;[电子]迁移率;
Some people will move up, some people will move down. 有些人变富有些人变穷。
The important point is that, in any such model, for a given variance of such shocks, the equilibrium level of wealth inequality will be a steeply rising function of r minus g. 重点是 这些模型 给定方差的冲击, 财富不平等的均衡水平将是 一个(r - g)急剧上升的函数。
variance:n.变异;变化;不一致;分歧;[数]方差; equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力; steeply:adv.陡峭地;险峻地; minus:prep.减,减去;n.负号,减号;不足;负数;adj.减的;负的;
And intuitively , the reason why the difference between the rate of return to wealth and the growth rate is important is that initial wealth inequalities will be amplified at a faster pace with a bigger r minus g. 直觉上说, 财富的回报率 和增长率之间的差距是由于 初始财富不平等造成的 将以更快的速度被放大 r - g。
intuitively:adv.直观地;直觉地; initial:adj.最初的; n.(名字的)首字母; v.用姓名的首字母作标记(或签名)于; inequalities:n.[数]不等式;不均等,不平衡;不平坦(inequality的复数形式); amplified:v.放大;详述(amplify的过去分词);adj.放大的;扩充的;
So take a simple example, with r equals five percent and g equals one percent, wealth holders only need to reinvest one fifth of their capital income to ensure that their wealth rises as fast as the size of the economy. 举个简单的例子, r为5%,g为1%, 财富持有者只需要再投资 资产中的五分之一 就可以保证他们的财富 可以和经济等速增长。
reinvest:vt.再投资于;再授给;vi.再投资; ensure:vt.保证,确保;使安全;
So this makes it easier to build and perpetuate large fortunes because you can consume four fifths, assuming zero tax, and you can just reinvest one fifth. 这就使得 财富保值更容易 零税率的情况下 你可以消费另外的五分之四, 你只需要五分之一用以再投资。
perpetuate:vt.使不朽;保持;adj.长存的; fortunes:n.命运,机遇(fortune复数形式); v.给…以大宗财富(fortune的第三人称单数形式); assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
So of course some families will consume more than that, some will consume less, so there will be some mobility in the distribution, but on average, they only need to reinvest one fifth, so this allows high wealth inequalities to be sustained . 当然有些家庭消费多些, 有些则少些, 这样分配就有了流动性, 平均来说,他们只需要五分之一财富由于再投资 这会导致财富不平等的持续。
sustained:adj.持续的; v.维持; (sustain的过去分词和过去式)
Now, you should not be surprised by the statement that r can be bigger than g forever, because, in fact, this is what happened during most of the history of mankind . 您不要惊讶 r 会永远大于 g的说法 因为,这是 人类大部分历史的情况。
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; mankind:n.人类;男性;
And this was in a way very obvious to everybody for a simple reason, which is that growth was close to zero percent during most of the history of mankind. 每个人都应该清楚 原因很简单, 人类历史上 大部分时间增长率都接近0。
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
Growth was maybe 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 percent, but very slow growth of population and output per capita , whereas the rate of return on capital of course was not zero percent. 人口增长缓慢 人均产出 资本回报率 当然不是0%。
output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出; per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; rate of return on capital:资本利润率;
It was, for land assets , which was the traditional form of assets in preindustrial societies, it was typically five percent. 土地资产 传统上的 工业化前社会, 一般为5%。
assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数) traditional:传统的,惯例的, preindustrial:adj.工业化前的;未工业化的;
Any reader of Jane Austen would know that. 对于作家简·奥斯汀的读者应该知道,
If you want an annual income of 1,000 pounds, you should have a capital value of 20,000 pounds so that five percent of 20,000 is 1,000. 如果你想每年收入1000英镑, 你得有2万英镑的 本钱 这样2万的5%为1000。
annual:n.年报;年鉴;年刊;adj.每年的;年度的;一年的;
And in a way, this was the very foundation of society, because r bigger than g was what allowed holders of wealth and assets to live off their capital income and to do something else in life than just to care about their own survival . 某种程度上来说, 这是以往社会的基础, 因为r > g 这样财富和资产的持有者可以 依靠资本收益生活 而且可以干点儿别的 不只是关注与如何生存。
foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立; survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
Now, one important conclusion of my historical research is that modern industrial growth did not change this basic fact as much as one might have expected. 一个重要推论 是依据我的历史研究 当代工业增长没有改变 这一基本事实。
conclusion:n.结论;结局;推论;
Of course, the growth rate following the Industrial Revolution rose, typically from zero to one to two percent, but at the same time , the rate of return to capital also rose so that the gap between the two did not really change. 当然,增长率 随着工业革命提升 从0%增长到2%, 但是同时,资本回报率 也增加了 这样两者之间的差距 并没有改变。
Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时;
So during the 20th century, you had a very unique combination of events. 20世纪 有一个非常独特的事件汇总影响。
unique:adj.独特的,稀罕的;[数]唯一的;n.独一无二的人或物; combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合;
First, a very low rate of return due to the 1914 and 1945 war shocks, destruction of wealth, inflation , bankruptcy during the Great Depression, and all of this reduced the private rate of return to wealth to unusually low levels between 1914 and 1945. 首先,由于战争1914-1945 资本回报率非常低 财富的损失,贬值 大萧条时的破产, 这都降低了 个人的财富收益率 到了一个低水平 在1914-1945。
destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁; inflation:n.膨胀;通货膨胀;夸张;自命不凡; bankruptcy:n.破产; unusually:adv.非常;异乎寻常地;显著地;
And then, in the postwar period, you had unusually high growth rate, partly due to the reconstruction . 战后, 增长率通常很高, 部分原因是重建。
postwar:adj.战后的;n.战后时期;adv.战后;在战后; reconstruction:n.再建,重建;改造;复兴;
You know, in Germany, in France, in Japan, you had five percent growth rate between 1950 and 1980 largely due to reconstruction, and also due to very large demographic growth, the Baby Boom Cohort effect. 德国,法国,日本, 从1950-1980 有5%的增长率 就是由于战后重建。 同样由于人口大量增长 婴儿潮世代效应。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的; Baby Boom:n.婴儿潮;生育高峰; Cohort:n.一群人,一批人;同伙;支持者;
Now, apparently that's not going to last for very long, or at least the population growth is supposed to decline in the future, and the best projections we have is that the long-run growth is going to be closer to one to two percent 1%-2% rather than four to five percent. 显然这不能持续很久, 至少人口增长率 在未来会下降, 最佳的推测是 长期增长率接近 而不是4%-5%
apparently:adv.显然地;似乎,表面上; supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数)
So if you look at this, these are the best estimates we have of world GDP growth and rate of return on capital, average rates of return on capital, so you can see that during most of the history of mankind, the growth rate was very small, much lower than the rate of return, and then during the 20th century, it is really the population growth, very high in the postwar period, and the reconstruction process that brought growth to a smaller gap with the rate of return. 仔细审视, 我们得到的最佳估计是 世界GDP增长 和资本回报率 平均资本回报率, 您可以看到 人类历史大部分时间 增长率非常小 低于回报率, 在20世纪 战后 人口快速增长 以及战后重建 带来了增长 缩小了增长率和回报率之间的差距。
estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数)
Here I use the United Nations population projections, so of course they are uncertain . 这里我引用联合国人口预测, 当然这并不是最准确的数字
United Nations:n.联合国; uncertain:adj.无常的;含糊的;靠不住的;迟疑不决的;
It could be that we all start having a lot of children in the future, and the growth rates are going to be higher, but from now on , these are the best projections we have, and this will make global growth decline and the gap between the rate of return go up. 但是我们未来可能 都会有很多小孩, 增长率变得更高, 但是今后 这是我们最后好的预测, 这会导致全球增长 下滑和回报率的差距 会加大。
from now on:从今以后;从现在起;
Now, the other unusual event during the 20th century was, as I said , destruction, taxation of capital, so this is the pre-tax rate of return. 还有其他不同的事件 在20世纪 如我所说 财产破坏,资本税 这是税前收益率
as I said:正如我所说的 taxation:n.课税,征税;税款; pre-tax:adj.纳税前的;
This is the after-tax rate of return, and after destruction, and this is what brought the average rate of return after tax, after destruction, below the growth rate during a long time period. 这是税后收益率 破坏后的收益率, 这是结果 税后平均回报率 破坏后, 低于增长率。
after-tax:adj.税后;纳税后的;
But without the destruction, without the taxation, this would not have happened. 如果没有破坏, 没有税的话,这就不会发生。
So let me say that the balance between returns on capital and growth depends on many different factors that are very difficult to predict : technology and the development of capital-intensive techniques . 让我说一下 资本回报率经济增长之间的 平衡取决于不同的因素, 很难预测: 技术和开发 资本密集型技术
factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; predict:v.预报;预言;预告; techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数)
So right now, the most capital-intensive sectors in the economy are the real estate sector, housing, the energy sector, but it could be in the future that we have a lot more robots in a number of sectors and that this would be a bigger share of the total capital stock that it is today. 当下,资本密集型行业 在经济中主要是房地产行业, 能源行业,但是未来 更多的机器人应用在大量行业 这会占更大的 总发行股本。
sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形; real estate:n.房地产;不动产; stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的;
Well, we are very far from this, and from now, what's going on in the real estate sector, the energy sector, is much more important for the total capital stock and capital share. 当然,我们还距此很远, 今后, 房地产行业,能源行业 更重要总发行股本 和资本股
The other important issue is that there are scale effects in portfolio management , together with financial complexity , financial deregulation , that make it easier to get higher rates of return for a large portfolio, and this seems to be particularly strong for billionaires , large capital endowments . 其他重要问题是 投资管理的规模效应, 加上金融复杂性, 金融自由化, 这获得更高回报率变得更容易 大型投资组合 使得亿万富翁,大型资本捐增资金 变得非常强大。
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; portfolio:n.公文包;文件夹;证券投资组合;部长职务; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 deregulation:n.违反规定,反常;撤消管制规定; particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; billionaires:亿万富翁(billionaire的复数); endowments:n.禀赋;才能(endowment的复数);
Just to give you one example, this comes from the Forbes billionaire rankings over the 1987-2013 period, and you can see the very top wealth holders have been going up at six, seven percent per year in real terms above inflation, whereas average income in the world, average wealth in the world, have increased at only two percent per year. 举个例子, 从福布斯排行榜 在1987-2013间公布的数据来看, 顶级财富持有者 每年提高6%-7%。 实际高于通货膨胀, 世界平均收入 世界平均财富, 增长每年只有2%。
Forbes:n.福布斯(美国著名财经杂志);福布斯(美国出版及媒体集团);福布斯(姓氏); rankings:n.排名;排行(ranking的复数);
And you find the same for large university endowments — the bigger the initial endowments, the bigger the rate of return. 同样 大型大学捐增资金 初始捐增资金越大 回报率越高。
Now, what could be done? 怎么办？
The first thing is that I think we need more financial transparency . 首先我认为我们需要 更高的财务透明度。
transparency:n.透明,透明度;幻灯片;有图案的玻璃;
We know too little about global wealth dynamics, so we need international transmission of bank information. 我们对全球财富动力学知之甚少, 我们需要国际间传递 银行信息。
We need a global registry of financial assets, more coordination on wealth taxation, and even wealth tax with a small tax rate will be a way to produce information so that then we can adapt our policies to whatever we observe . 我们需要一个全球性的金融资产注册表 更多的财富税, 即使低的财富税税率 会产生相关资产信息 以便根据我们观察 调整政策。
registry:n.注册;登记处;挂号处;船舶的国籍; coordination:n.协调,调和;对等,同等; wealth tax:na.财产税; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应; policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) observe:v.观察;看到;庆祝;监视;
And to some extent , the fight against tax havens and automatic transmission of information is pushing us in this direction. 某种程度上, 打击避税天堂 自动传输信息 可以把我们推向这个方向。
extent:n.程度;范围;长度; havens:避难所;港口(haven的复数);安置…于港中;庇护; automatic transmission:n.(机动车的)自动变速器;
Now, there are other ways to redistribute wealth, which it can be tempting to use. 还有其他的财富再分配方法, 也可以一试。
redistribute:vt.重新分配;再区分; tempting:adj.吸引人的;诱惑人的;v.引诱;(tempt的现在分词);
Inflation: it's much easier to print money than to write a tax code, so that's very tempting, but sometimes you don't know what you do with the money. 通货膨胀: 印钱 比拟定一部税法简单,很有诱惑力, 但有时你不知道如何花钱。
This is a problem. 这是个问题。
Expropriation is very tempting. 没收也不错。
Expropriation:n.征收,征用;没收;
Just when you feel some people get too wealthy, you just expropriate them. 如果觉得某些人太富了, 就没收他们。
expropriate:vt.没收,征用;剥夺;
But this is not a very efficient way to organize a regulation of wealth dynamics. 不过这不是对财富动态监管的 有效方法。
efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的; organize:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理;
So war is an even less efficient way, so I tend to prefer progressive taxation, history will invent its own best ways, and it will probably involve a combination of all of these. 战争效率更低, 我更倾向于累进税, 历史会创造最好的方法, 可能是 上述方法的组合。
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; progressive:adj.进步的;先进的;开明的;稳步的;n.进步人士;开明人士;改革派; involve:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) （掌声）
Bruno Giussani: Thomas Piketty. Thank you. 布鲁诺·朱萨尼:托马斯·皮克迪,谢谢。
Thomas, I want to ask you two or three questions, because it's impressive how you're in command of your data, of course, but basically what you suggest is growing wealth concentration is kind of a natural tendency of capitalism , and if we leave it to its own devices , it may threaten the system itself, so you're suggesting that we need to act to implement policies that redistribute wealth, including the ones we just saw: progressive taxation, etc. 托马斯,我想问你两三个问题, 你的数据令人印象深刻 但是基本上你建议 财富集中度提高 是资本主义的自然趋势, 如果任由发展, 可能会危及系统本身, 所以您建议采取 一些政策对财富再分配, 包括 累进税,等等。
impressive:adj.感人的;令人钦佩的;给人以深刻印象的; capitalism:n.资本主义; devices:n.[机][计]设备;[机]装置;[电子]器件(device的复数); implement:v.实施;执行;贯彻;使生效;n.工具;
In the current political context , how realistic are those? 当下政治环境下 如何实现？
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; realistic:adj.现实的;现实主义的;逼真的;实在论的;
How likely do you think that it is that they will be implemented ? 您认为 如何执行？
implemented:v.使生效;贯彻;执行;实施;(implement的过去式和过去分词)
Thomas Piketty: Well, you know, I think if you look back through time, the history of income, wealth and taxation is full of surprise. 托马斯·皮凯迪:当然,我认为 如果你看看过去, 收入的历史,财富和税 充满了不确定性。
So I am not terribly impressed by those who know in advance what will or will not happen. 我不会惊讶于 谁会提前知道 会发生什么。
impressed:adj.印象深刻; v.使钦佩; (impress的过去分词和过去式) in advance:adv.预先,提前;
I think one century ago, many people would have said that progressive income taxation would never happen and then it happened. 一个世纪前, 很多人会说 不会征收累进所得税 结果征了。
And even five years ago, many people would have said that bank secrecy will be with us forever in Switzerland, that Switzerland was too powerful for the rest of the world, and then suddenly it took a few U.S. sanctions against Swiss banks for a big change to happen, and now we are moving toward more financial transparency. 5年前, 很多人会说 瑞士会一直坚持银行保密法, 瑞士太强大了 相对于世界其他地方, 然而美国的几个对瑞士银行的制裁 就导致了巨变, 此后 金融透明度更高了。
secrecy:n.保密;秘密;隐蔽; sanctions:n.制裁; v.许可; (sanction的第三人称单数和复数)
So I think it's not that difficult to better coordinate politically . 我认为 更好的政治协调并不难。
coordinate:n.坐标; v.协调; adj.同等的; politically:adv.政治上;
We are going to have a treaty with half of the world GDP around the table with the U.S. and the European Union , so if half of the world GDP is not enough to make progress on financial transparency 我们会和表格上 半数的世界GDP贡献国 和美国、欧盟谈判 如果世界一半GDP不够 改善金融透明性
treaty:n.条约,协议;谈判; European Union:n.欧洲联盟;
and minimal tax for multinational corporate profits , what does it take? 为跨国企业利润收最少的税, 需要做什么？
minimal:adj.最低的;最小限度的; multinational:adj.跨国公司的;多国的;n.跨国公司; corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; profits:n.利润; v.获益; (profit的第三人称单数和复数)
So I think these are not technical difficulties. 我认为这些技术上不困难。
technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
I think we can make progress if we have a more pragmatic approach to these questions and we have the proper sanctions on those who benefit from financial opacity . 我认为会取得进展的 如果我们有对这些问题更实用的方法 我们制裁 从金融不透明中获益的人。
pragmatic:adj.实际的;实用主义的;国事的; approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理; opacity:n.不透明;不传导;暧昧;
BG: One of the arguments against your point of view is that economic inequality is not only a feature of capitalism but is actually one of its engines. 布鲁诺·朱萨尼:反对您观点的 一个争论就是 经济不平等 这不仅是资本主义的特色也是驱动引擎。
point of view:观点;见地;立场;
So we take measures to lower inequality, and at the same time we lower growth, potentially . 我们要是采取措施降低不平等, 同时我们会不经意间降低增长与潜能。
potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地;
What do you answer to that? 您怎么看？
TP: Yeah, I think inequality is not a problem per se. 托马斯·皮凯迪:是的,不平等 本身不是一个问题。
I think inequality up to a point can actually be useful for innovation and growth. 我认为某种程度上 不平等有利于革新和增长。
innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
The problem is, it's a question of degree. 问题是,问题的度。
When inequality gets too extreme, then it becomes useless for growth and it can even become bad because it tends to lead to high perpetuation of inequality over time and low mobility. 不平等太大了, 增长就没有意义 会更糟 因为它会导致 不平等的固化 降低流动性。
perpetuation:n.不朽,永存;
And for instance, the kind of wealth concentrations that we had in the 19th century and pretty much until World War I in every European country was, I think, not useful for growth. 例如,像19世纪那样的 财富集中度 这个集中情况一直持续到一战前 且遍布每个欧洲国家 我认为,对增长没用。
concentrations:n.关注点;[土壤]浓聚物(concentration的复数);
This was destroyed by a combination of tragic events and policy changes, and this did not prevent growth from happening. 这种情况被一系列 悲剧事件和政策改变了, 没有阻碍增长的发生。
tragic:adj.悲剧的;悲痛的,不幸的; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
And also, extreme inequality can be bad for our democratic institutions if it creates very unequal access to political voice, and the influence of private money in U.S. politics , I think, is a matter of concern right now. 同样,极端不平等 对我们的民主制度不好 它创造了非常不平等的政治声音, 美国政治中的 私人资金的影响力 现在就是需要关注的问题。
democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; politics:n.政治;钩心斗角;政治观点;v.(贬)从事政治活动;(politic的第三人称单数) a matter of concern:焦点;忧虑之事;
So we don't want to return to that kind of extreme, pre-World War I inequality. 我们不想回到类似 一战前那种极端不平等。
Having a decent share of the national wealth for the middle class is not bad for growth. 中产阶级占有适当的 国家财富对增长有利。
decent:adj.正派的;得体的;相当好的;
It is actually useful both for equity and efficiency reasons. 实际上 有利于平等和效率。
equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值; efficiency:n.效率;效能;功效;
BG: I said at the beginning that your book has been criticized . 布鲁诺·朱萨尼:我开头说的 您的书被批评。
at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始; criticized:v.批评;挑剔;指责;评论;评价;(criticize的过去式和过去分词)
Some of your data has been criticized. 您的一些数据被批评。
Some of your choice of data sets has been criticized. 一些您所选择的数据集被批评。
You have been accused of cherry-picking data to make your case. What do you answer to that? 您被指责刻意挑选数据作论据 您怎么回答？
accused:v.控告;控诉;谴责;(accuse的过去分词和过去式) cherry-picking:n.作最良好或最适宜选择的行为或习惯;v.挑选(cherry-pick的ing形式);
TP: Well, I answer that I am very happy that this book is stimulating debate . 托马斯·皮凯迪:我的回答是 我很高兴,这本书激起辩论。
stimulating:adj.激励人的; v.促进; (stimulate的现在分词) debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑;
This is part of what it is intended for. 这正是我想要的。
intended:adj.预定的;计划的;v.打算;计划;想要;(intend的过去分词和过去式)
Look, the reason why I put all the data online with all of the detailed computation is so that we can have an open and transparent debate about this. 看,我把数据放到网上 带着计算的细节 我们可以公开透明 探讨。
computation:n.估计,计算; transparent:adj.透明的;显然的;坦率的;易懂的;
So I have responded point by point to every concern. 我逐一回复 每个关注。
responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词)
Let me say that if I was to rewrite the book today, 如果我今天重写此书,
I would actually conclude that the rise in wealth inequality, particularly in the United States, has been actually higher than what I report in my book. 我会断定 财富不平等增加了, 特别是在美国, 比我写书时更不平等。
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定)
There is a recent study by Saez and Zucman showing, with new data which I didn't have at the time of the book, that wealth concentration in the U.S. has risen even more than what I report. 最近经济学家伊曼纽尔·赛斯(Emmanuel Saez)和加布里埃尔·祖克曼(Gabriel Zucman) 用我写书时没有的新数据 表明, 美国的财富不平等加剧 比我写的还要严重。
And there will be other data in the future. 将来还会有其他数据。
Some of it will go in different directions. 有些将引向不同的方向。
Look, we put online almost every week new, updated series on the World Top Income Database and we will keep doing so in the future, in particular in emerging countries, and I welcome all of those who want to contribute to this data collection process. 要知道,每周我们上线 新的、更新的世界顶级收入数据库(World Top Incomes Database) 将来我们也会坚持这样做, 特别是新兴国家, 我欢迎所有收集数据过程 提供帮助的人。
updated:adj.更新的;现代化的;v.使现代化;更新;(update的过去分词和过去式) series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) contribute to:有助于;捐献;
In fact, I certainly agree that there is not enough transparency about wealth dynamics, and a good way to have better data would be to have a wealth tax with a small tax rate to begin with so that we can all agree about this important evolution and adapt our policies to whatever we observe. 事实上,我同意 财富动力学的透明度 不够, 还有一个办法就是 征收财富税 从低税率开始 这样我们都会同意 这一重要演进 根据我们的观察调整政策。
So taxation is a source of knowledge, and that's what we need the most right now. 征税是一个知识信息源, 是我们现在最需要的。
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料;
BG: Thomas Piketty, merci beaucoup . 布鲁诺·朱萨尼:托马斯·皮凯迪,非常感谢。
merci:int.谢谢(法语); beaucoup:非常多的;
Thank you. TP: Thank you. (Applause) 谢谢。托马斯.皮凯迪:谢谢。(掌声)