返回首页

TaliSharot_2012-_乐观的偏见_
I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- or more precisely, the optimism bias . 准确的说,乐观的偏见。
optimism:n.乐观;乐观主义; bias:adv.使有偏见;n.偏见;偏心;偏爱;v.使有偏见;使偏向;adj.斜的;[电]偏动的;
It's a cognitive illusion that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years, and 80 percent of us have it. 过去的几年中 百分之八十的人都有这种乐观偏见。
cognitive:adj.认知的,认识的; illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰;
It's our tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. 低估坏事发生的几率。
tendency:n.倾向,趋势;癖好; overestimate:v.高估;n.过高的评估; likelihood:n.可能性,可能; underestimate:v.低估;看轻;n.低估;
So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer , being in a car accident. 遭遇车祸的几率。
cancer:n.癌症;恶性肿瘤;
We overestimate our longevity , our career prospects .
longevity:n.长寿,长命;寿命; career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; prospects:n.可能性; v.探矿; (prospect的第三人称单数和复数)
In short, we're more optimistic than realistic , but we are oblivious to the fact. 简而言之,我们过于乐观,不够现实
optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; realistic:adj.现实的;现实主义的;逼真的;实在论的; oblivious:adj.遗忘的;健忘的;不注意的;不知道的;
Take marriage for example.
In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.
divorce:n.离婚;分离;v.与某人离婚;使分离;
That means that out of five married couples, two will end up splitting their assets . 有两对最终要闹到分割财产。
assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数)
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, they estimate it at zero percent. 但是如果你问新婚夫妇他们离婚的几率是多少的话, 他们的估计是百分之零。
newlyweds:n.新婚夫妇;新婚的人(newlywed的复数);
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce. 而且就连应该对这个问题有清醒认识的离婚律师 也会严重低估他们自己离婚的几率。
So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce, but they are more likely to remarry . 但再婚的几率比较高。
optimists:n.乐观主义者;乐天派; remarry:v.再婚;
In the words of Samuel Johnson, " Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience." “再婚是希望战胜了经验。”
Remarriage:n.再婚; triumph:v.战胜;成功;打败;n.巨大成功;重大成就;伟大胜利;喜悦;
(Laughter)
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids. 结婚之后很可能会生孩子。
And we all think our kids will be especially talented.
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
This, by the way , is my two-year-old nephew, Guy. 顺便一提,这是我两岁的侄子Guy。
by the way:顺便说一下;
And I just want to make it absolutely clear that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias, because he is in fact uniquely talented. 我必须强调 用他来证明乐观偏见是一个非常糟糕的选择, 因为事实上他确实拥有与众不同的才华。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; uniquely:adv.独特地;珍奇地;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And I'm not alone.
Out of four British people, three said that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. 四个英国人中有三个表示 他们对自己家庭的未来感到乐观。
That's 75 percent.
But only 30 percent said that they thought families in general are doing better than a few generations ago. 不过只有百分之三十的人表示 他们认为现在的家庭 比几十年前的家庭过的更好。
in general:总之,通常;一般而言;
And this is a really important point, because we're optimistic about ourselves, we're optimistic about our kids, we're optimistic about our families, but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, and we're somewhat pessimistic about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. 因为我们对自己, 自己的孩子 然而对于坐在我们旁边的人,我们就没有那么乐观了,
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微; pessimistic:adj.悲观的,厌世的;悲观主义的;
But private optimism about our own personal future remains persistent .
personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词; persistent:adj.固执的,坚持的;持久稳固的;
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so. 这并不意味着我们认为事情会变魔术一样莫名奇妙的顺利解决。
magically:adv.用魔法地;如魔法般地;
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. 我是科学家,我做实验。
So to show you what I mean,
I'm going to do an experiment here with you.
So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics , and I want you to think for each of these abilities where you stand relative to the rest of the population. 我会列出一些能力和性格特点, 我希望你们对照这个清单思考一下 自己的每一项能力处于人群中的什么位置。
characteristics:n.特征;特点;品质;(characteristic的复数) relative:adj.相对的;有关系的;成比例的;n.亲戚;相关物;[语]关系词;亲缘植物;
The first one is getting along well with others.
Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. 好的,一千五百个人里面大概有十个人举手。
Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?
That's most of us here. 大多数人都举手了。
Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.
How interesting are you? 你有趣吗？
How attractive are you? 你迷人吗？
attractive:adj.吸引人的;有魅力的;引人注目的;
How honest are you? 你诚实吗？
And finally , how modest are you? 最后一个问题,你谦虚吗？
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的;
So most of us put ourselves above average on most of these abilities. 高于平均水平。
Now this is statistically impossible.
statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上;
We can't all be better than everyone else. 不可能所有人都比其他人优秀。
(Laughter) （笑声）
But if we believe we're better than the other guy, well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married, because we're more social, more interesting. 但是如果我们相信自己比别人更优秀, 这也就意味着我们认为自己更应该得到升职,婚姻美满, 因为我们性格更有趣,更善于与人交往。
And it's a global phenomenon . 这是一个国际性的现象。
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
The optimism bias has been observed in many different countries -- in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures, in females and males, in kids, in the elderly . 无论他来自西方文化还是非西方文化,
observed:adj.观察的;观测的;v.观察;遵守;注意到(observe的过去分词形式); non-Western:adj.非西方的;非西方社会的; elderly:adj.上了年纪的;过了中年的;稍老的;
It's quite widespread . 这种现象相当普遍。
widespread:adj.普遍的,广泛的;分布广的;
But the question is, is it good for us? 然而问题是,乐观偏见对我们有益吗？
So some people say no. 有人认为没有好处。
Some people say the secret to happiness is low expectations . 有人认为快乐的秘密就是
expectations:n.预料;预期;期待;希望;指望;(expectation的复数)
I think the logic goes something like this: 他们的逻辑大概是这样的:
logic:n.逻辑;逻辑学;逻辑性;adj.逻辑的;
If we don't expect greatness , if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful, well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen. 如果我们不期待成就什么伟业, 我们得不到这些东西的时候也不会特别失望。
greatness:n.伟大;巨大;
And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, we will be happy. 如果好事没有到来我们却不失望 那么好事发生的时候我们就得到了一个惊喜, 应该很开心。
pleasantly:adv.愉快地;和蔼地,亲切地;友好地;
So it's a very good theory, but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons. 但其实是错误的,原因有以下三点。
Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, people with high expectations always feel better. 期望高的人都更加快乐。
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month depends on how we interpret that event. 我们感觉如何取决于我们如何解读这一事件。
dumped:v.丢弃,扔掉;丢下;抛弃;倾销,抛售;(dump的过去分词和过去式) interpret:v.诠释;说明;口译;把…理解为;
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown studied students with high and low expectations.
psychologists:n.[心理]心理学家(psychologist的复数形式); high and low:到处;高低贵贱;
And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, they attribute that success to their own traits . 他们认为是自己的能力造就了这样的结果。
attribute:n.属性;象征;v.把…归因于;认为…属于;认为某人(某物)具有某种特性; traits:n.特性,特质,性格(trait的复数);
'"I'm a genius , therefore I got an A, therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."
genius:n.天才;天资;才能,本领; again and again:adv.再三地,反复地;
When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb , but because the exam just happened to be unfair.
dumb:adj.哑的,无说话能力的;不说话的,无声音的;
Next time they will do better. 下一次他们一定会考好。
People with low expectations do the opposite. 期望值低的人的思维正好相反。
So when they failed it was because they were dumb, and when they succeeded it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. 成功则是 因为考试恰巧特别简单。
Next time reality would catch up with them. 下次他们就没这么幸运了。
catch up with:赶上,追上;逮捕;处罚;
So they felt worse.
Number two: Regardless of the outcome , the pure act of anticipation makes us happy. 第二:无论结果如何, 心怀期待的感觉就让我们感到快乐。
Regardless:adj.不管的; v.不顾后果地; outcome:n.结果,结局;成果; anticipation:n.希望;预感;先发制人;预支;
The behavioral economist George Lowenstein asked students in his university to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity , any celebrity. 想象和一位名人激情接吻,任何名人都可以。
behavioral:adj.行为的; passionate:adj.热情的;热烈的,激昂的;易怒的; celebrity:n.名人;名声;
Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay to get a kiss from a celebrity if the kiss was delivered immediately, in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, in one year, in 10 years? 你愿意付多少钱？ 一年后呢？十年后呢？“
He found that the students were willing to pay the most not to get a kiss immediately, but to get a kiss in three days. 他发现,三天后接吻, 而非立刻接吻,
They were willing to pay extra in order to wait. 他们愿意为等待承担额外的费用。
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外:
Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; no one wants an aging celebrity. 没人希望亲吻一个人老珠黄的名人。
But three days seemed to be the optimum amount. 不过三天似乎就是最合适的等待时间。
optimum:adj.最适宜的;n.最佳效果;最适宜条件;
So why is that?
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with. 如果立刻就得到这个吻,美妙的时刻马上就结束了。
But if you get the kiss in three days, well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait. 如果你三天后才会得到这个吻, 这三天你都会因为期待而惴惴不安,因为等待而激动不已。
jittery:adj.神经过敏的;战战兢兢的;紧张不安的; thrill:n.兴奋感;兴奋;激动;v.使非常兴奋;使非常激动;
The students wanted that time to imagine where is it going to happen, how is it going to happen. 学生们希望能有时间 想象接吻的方式 和发生的场景。
Anticipation made them happy.
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday. 顺便一提,相较于周日人们更喜欢周五也是同样的道理。
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升;
It's a really curious fact, because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure, so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, but they don't. 这个现象非常有趣, 因为周五是工作日,周日是休息日, 所以人们似乎应该更喜欢周日, 然而事实却不是这样。
curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的; assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现;
It's not because they really, really like being in the office and they can't stand strolling in the park or having a lazy brunch . 这并不是因为大家都喜欢呆在办公室里, 不能忍受在公园散步 或者享受一顿慵懒的早午餐。
strolling:adj.巡回演出的;消闲散步的;v.散步;闲逛;(stroll的现在分词) brunch:n.早午餐(早午两餐并作一餐);
We know that, because when you ask people about their ultimate favorite day of the week, surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, then Friday, then Sunday. 最喜欢一周之中的哪一天, 其次是周五,再其次才是周日。
ultimate:adj.最终的;极限的;根本的;n.终极;根本;基本原则;
People prefer Friday because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead, all the plans that you have. 人们喜欢周五是因为 以及你的周末计划充满期待。
On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to is the work week. 而周日你所能期待的只有
look forward to:盼望,期待;
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, more strolls in the park.
strolls:n.漫步鞋(stroll的复数);v.闲逛,漫步(stroll的第三人称单数);
And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing .
enhances:提高(enhance的第三人称单数); wellbeing:n.幸福;福利;安乐;
In fact, without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed . 事实上,如果没有乐观偏见,
slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地; depressed:adj.沮丧的; v.使抑郁; (depress的过去式和过去分词)
People with mild depression , they don't have a bias when they look into the future. 展望未来的时候没有偏见。
mild:adj.温和的; n.(英国的一种)淡味麦芽啤酒; depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals . 事实上,他们比健康的人更加现实。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
But individuals with severe depression, they have a pessimistic bias.
severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
So they tend to expect the future to be worse than it ends up being. 比实际更糟糕。
So optimism changes subjective reality. 因此乐观可能改变主观现实。
subjective:adj.主观的;个人的;自觉的;
The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it. 我们对世界的期待改变我们对世界的看法。
But it also changes objective reality. 但它也会改变客观现实。
objective:n.目标; adj.客观的;
It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy . 是一种可能因为人们的主观想法而客观实现的预言。
self-fulfilling:adj.实现自己抱负的,自我实现的; prophecy:n.预言;预言书;预言能力;
And that is the third reason why lowering your expectations will not make you happy. 这也就是降低期待不会让你快乐的
Controlled experiments have shown that optimism is not only related to success, it leads to success. 对照试验表明
Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics . 在学术界、体坛和政坛,乐观能都带来成功。
academia:n.学术界;学术生涯; politics:n.政治;钩心斗角;政治观点;v.(贬)从事政治活动;(politic的第三人称单数)
And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.
If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced. 对美好未来的期待 可以舒缓压力、缓解焦虑。
anxiety:n.焦虑;渴望;挂念;令人焦虑的事;
So all in all , optimism has lots of benefits. 因此,乐观益处多多。
all in all:总而言之;头等重要的东西;
But the question that was really confusing to me was, how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? 我们如何在现实面前保持乐观的心态？
confusing:adj.令人困惑; v.使糊涂; (confuse的现在分词) maintain:v.维持;保持;维修;保养;坚持(意见); in the face of:面对;
As an neuroscientist , this was especially confusing, because according to all the theories out there, when your expectations are not met, you should alter them. 作为一位神经学家这个问题尤其难以理解, 如果期望没有成真的话,人会做出相应的调整。
neuroscientist:n.神经系统科学家; according to:根据,据说; alter:v.更改;修改(衣服使更合身);
But this is not what we find. 然而我们的发现却不是这样。
We asked people to come into our lab in order to try and figure out what was going on. 为了了解这一切的原理 我们请普通人走进实验室参与实验。
We asked them to estimate their likelihood of experiencing different terrible events in their lives. 在生活中经历各种不幸的几率。
So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer? 比如,你得癌症的几率是多大？
And then we told them the average likelihood of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes . 然后我们告诉他,和他各方面条件相似的人
misfortunes:不幸;
So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent. 比如说,得癌症的几率是百分之三十。
And then we asked them again, "How likely are you to suffer from cancer?" 然后我们请他们再次估计自己患病的几率, “你得癌症的几率是多少？”
What we wanted to know was whether people will take the information that we gave them to change their beliefs. 我们希望了解的是 并调整他们的想法。
And indeed they did -- but mostly when the information we gave them was better than what they expected. 但主要是在我们给他们的数据优于
So for example, if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 50 percent," 如果人一个人说,“我得癌症的几率 大约是百分之五十,”
and we said, "Hey, good news. 然而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"
the next time around they would say, "Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent." 下一次再问他的时候他会说,
So they learned quickly and efficiently .
efficiently:adv.有效地;效率高地(efficient的副词形式);
But if someone started off saying, "My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent," 但是如果有人开始说, “我患癌症的几率大约是百分之十,”
and we said, "Hey, bad news. 然而我们告诉他,“嗨,坏消息。
The average likelihood is about 30 percent," 平均患病几率是百分之三十,“
the next time around they would say, "Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent." 第二次被问到的时候他会说, “好。我还是觉得在百分之十一左右。”
(Laughter) （笑声）
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did -- but much, much less than when we gave them positive information about the future. 因此他们并不是完全不接受新信息—— 他们只是更愿意接受
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them; everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer is about 30 percent and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent. 每个人都记得患癌症的平均几率是 百分之三十左右 离婚率是百分之四十左右。
But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them. 但他们不认为这些数据与自己有关。
What this means is that warning signs such as these may only have limited impact .
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
What I wanted to know was what was going on inside the human brain that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally . 我想了解的是 人脑中到底发生了什么 以至于我们无法把预警信号与自身联系起来。
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言;
But at the same time , when we hear that the housing market is hopeful, we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price." 但是
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
To try and figure that out,
I asked the participants in the experiment to lie in a brain imaging scanner .
participants:n.参与者(participant的复数形式); imaging:n.[物]成像;造像;v.反映;想像;作…的像;象征;(image的现在分词形式) scanner:n.[计]扫描仪;扫描器;光电子扫描装置;
It looks like this. 看起来就像这样。
And using a method called functional MRI, we were able to identify regions in the brain that were responding to positive information. 通过功能性核磁成像,
functional:adj.功能的; identify:v.识别:鉴定:确认:发现: regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数) responding:v.响应;作出反应;反应灵敏;(respond的现在分词)
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus .
inferior:adj.较差的; n.不如别人的人; frontal:adj.额的;正面的,前面的;n.额骨,额部;房屋的正面; gyrus:n.[解剖]脑回(形成大脑半球的组织);回转;
So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"
and we said, "Hey, good news. 而我们告诉他,“嗨,好消息。
Average likelihood is 30 percent," 平均几率是百分之三会,“
the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely . 左额下回就会有明显的反应。
fiercely:adv.猛烈地;厉害地;
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist or slightly pessimistic, everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus was functioning perfectly well, whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen. 还是轻度悲观, 无论是你是巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）还是伍迪·艾伦（Woody Allen）, 每个人的左额下回 都运转正常。
extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; Woody:adj.木质的;多树木的;木头似的;
On the other side of the brain, the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news. 在大脑的另外一侧, 右额下回负责对坏消息做出反应。
On the other side:另一面;在另一边;
And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job. 问题就是处在这里:右额下回没能尽忠职守。
The more optimistic you were, the less likely this region was to respond to unexpected negative information. 你越乐观, 这一区域 对意外的消极信息的反应就越迟钝。
unexpected:adj.意外的,想不到的; negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝;
And if your brain is failing at integrating bad news about the future, you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on. 如果你的大脑 无法接受有关未来的坏消息, 你对世界的看法一直都会比实际美好。
integrating:v.(使)合并,成为一体;(使)加入,融入群体;(integrate的现在分词) constantly:adv.不断地;时常地; rose-tinted:adj.玫瑰色的;希望的;乐观的; spectacles:n.眼镜;精彩的表演;大场面;(spectacle的复数)
So we wanted to know, could we change this? 因此,我们希望进一步了解,我们可以改变这种现象吗？
Could we alter people's optimism bias by interfering with the brain activity in these regions? 我们时候可以通过干涉这些区域的脑部活动 来改变人们的乐观偏见呢？
interfering:adj.管闲事的;v.干涉;干预;介入;(interfere的现在分词)
And there's a way for us to do that. 我们确实有办法做到。
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.
collaborator:n.[劳经]合作者;勾结者;通敌者;
And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse through the skull of the participant in our study into their inferior frontal gyrus. 通过研究参与者的头骨 传达到他们的额下回。
magnetic:adj.像磁铁的;有磁性的;磁的;富有吸引力的; pulse:n.脉冲;脉搏;脉率;强劲的音乐节拍;v.搏动;跳动;震动;洋溢着; skull:n.头盖骨,脑壳;
And by doing that, he's interfering with the activity of this brain region for about half an hour. 这样做 他可以影响该区域的脑活动
After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you. 此后一切恢复正常,我保证。
assure:vt.保证;担保;使确信;弄清楚;
(Laughter) （笑声）
So let's see what happens.
First of all , I'm going to show you the average amount of bias that we see. 一般的偏见水平。
First of all:adv.首先;
So if I was to test all of you now, this is the amount that you would learn more from good news relative to bad news. 就比坏消息多这么多。
Now we interfere with the region that we found to integrate negative information in this task, and the optimism bias grew even larger. 接受消极信息的区域 乐观偏见就变得更加严重。
interfere:v.干涉;干预;介入; integrate:v.成为一体;(使)加入;adj.完全的;
We made people more biased in the way that they process information. 我们加重了人们处理信息时的偏见。
biased:adj.有偏见的;结果偏倚的,有偏的; in the way:妨碍;挡道; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
Then we interfered with the brain region that we found to integrate good news in this task, and the optimism bias disappeared . 接受好消息的区域, 随后乐观偏见就消失了。
interfered:v.干涉;干预;介入;(interfere的过去分词和过去式) disappeared:adj.消失的;消失了的;v.消失,失踪;(disappear的过去式和过去分词)
We were quite amazed by these results because we were able to eliminate a deep-rooted bias in humans. 这样的结果让我们十分震惊
eliminate:v.消除;排除; deep-rooted:adj.根深蒂固的;
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves, would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits? 将乐观偏见彻底摧毁是一件好事吗？
shatter:n.碎片;碎块;落花(叶等);v.(使)破碎,碎裂;粉碎,破灭;给予极大打击;
If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away? 如果可以实现,我们要夺走人们的乐观偏见吗？
Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias, which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.
hold onto:抓紧
But there are, of course, pitfalls , and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them. 当然,乐观偏见也有它的缺陷, 而且忽略这些缺陷是十分不明智的。
pitfalls:n.危险;困难;(尤指)陷阱,隐患;(pitfall的复数) ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬;
Take for example this email I recieved from a firefighter here in California.
firefighter:n.消防队员;
He says, " Fatality investigations for firefighters often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,' even when all of the available information was there to make safe decisions." 然而事实上根据当时已有的信息 已经可以做出安全的决定了。“
Fatality:n.死亡;宿命;致命性;不幸;灾祸; investigations:n.调查(investigation的复数); firefighters:n.消防队员;(firefighter的复数)
This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias to try to explain to the firefighters why they think the way they do, to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans. 这位队长希望用我们有关乐观偏见的研究结果 让他们意识到人类的这种乐观偏见。
findings:n.调查发现;判决;裁决;(finding的复数) acutely:adv.尖锐地;剧烈地;
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior, to financial collapse , to faulty planning.
unrealistic:adj.不切实际的;不实在的; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭; faulty:adj.有错误的;有缺点的;
The British government, for example, has acknowledged that the optimism bias can make individuals more likely to underestimate the costs and durations of projects. 例如,英国政府 承认乐观偏见 会让人
durations:期间;持久;
So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias. 他们考虑乐观偏见以后 调整了2012年奥运会的预算。
adjusted:adj.调整过的,调节了的;v.调整;校正(adjust的过去分词); budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的;
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks has done the same for his wedding budget. 他也因为同样的原因调整了婚礼的预算。
And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce, he said he was quite sure it was zero percent. 顺便一提,当我问他,他离婚的几率大概是多少时,
So what we would really like to do, is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful, benefiting from the many fruits of optimism. 保持内心充满希望的状态,
And I believe there's a way for us to do that. 我相信我们可以做到这一点。
The key here really is knowledge. 知识是这个问题的关键。
We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases .
innate:adj.先天的;固有的;与生俱来的; biases:n.偏差,偏见(bias的复数形式);v.偏见(bias的三单形式);
These have to be identified by scientific investigation. 科学研究可以帮助我们识别这些偏见。
identified:v.确认;认出;找到;发现;说明身份;(identify的过去式和过去分词) scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias does not shatter the illusion. 并不会破坏这种错觉。
It's like visual illusions , in which understanding them does not make them go away. 就像视觉错觉一样,
visual:adj.视觉的,视力的;栩栩如生的; illusions:n.幻想;错觉;幻觉;幻影(illusion的复数)
And this is good because it means we should be able to strike a balance, to come up with plans and rules to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful. 值得欣慰的是, 我们可以找到平衡 制定计划和规则 不让自己成为不切实际的乐观的受害者,
come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely .
portrays:vt.描绘;扮演; nicely:adv.细致地;有吸引力;令人满意;令人愉快;adj.强健的;
Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there who just does not believe they can fly, you certainly never will. 如果你是上面那些悲观的企鹅 那你肯定永远也飞不起来。
penguins:n.企鹅;(penguin的复数)
Because to make any kind of progress, we need to be able to imagine a different reality, and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. 我们必须有能力想象与现实不同的未来,
But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best , you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. 听天由命的直接跳下悬崖, 落地的时候场面恐怕不大好看。
blindly:adv.盲目地;轻率地;摸索地; for the best:出于好意; mess:n.混乱;餐厅;杂乱;肮脏;v.使不整洁;弄脏;弄乱;随地便溺;
But if you're an optimistic penguin who believes they can fly, but then adjusts a parachute to your back just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, you will soar like an eagle, even if you're just a penguin. 然而如果你是一只相信自己能飞 以防事情的发展没有你想象的那么顺利, 你就会如雄鹰一般遨游天际, 尽管你不过是只企鹅。
adjusts:(改变…以)适应,调整,校正(adjust的第三人称单数); parachute:n.降落伞;vi.跳伞;空投; just in case:以防万一;作为准备; soar:v.翱翔;高飞;猛增;高耸;n.翱翔;上升高度;高飞范围;
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause)