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TEDEd_PlanForZero_2021E-_为什么好点子会被困在死亡之谷中，以及如何拯救它们_
They’ve passed every test, cleared every hurdle , jumped through every hoop . 它们通过了每场测试、 突破了所有障碍,跨越了每道坎。
Now, all that remains is to unleash them on the world. 接下来所要做的一切就是 将它们公诸于世。
Ah, yes, there’s one more challenge. They must now across the valley of death. 噢,对,还有一个挑战。
All new products must pass through here before they reach the market. 所有新产品在推向市场前的 必经之地。
hurdle:n.障碍;栏;跳栏;vt.克服;vi.克服;跳过; hoop:n.箍;环;圈;(篮球)篮圈,篮框; unleash:vt.发泄;突然释放;使爆发; pass through:穿过;经历;经验;遭受;
Many never make it out, and sometimes that’s OK— if they don’t work, don’t fill a need, or for any number of other reasons. 许多产品在此跌倒后再没成功, 有时候,这是可以理解的—— 比如有的产品不可用、没有满足需求, 或者是其它一些原因。
But inventions that could help address massive global issues also face this risk. 但那些能帮助解决世界难题的研发产品 也同样会面临类似的窘境。
That’s because a technology’s potential isn’t the only factor that determines whether it will succeed. 因为技术潜力并不是决定 产品能否成功的唯一因素。
The valley of death is especially risky for innovations involving complex physical objects as opposed to software, and for those in highly regulated industries, like medicine, building materials, and transportation . 死亡谷尤为危险, 尤其是不同于软件, 包含复杂物理元件的发明, 以及一些受到严格监管的行业, 比如医疗、建材以及交通运输。
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入; determines:v.查明;测定;准确算出;决定;裁决;安排;(determine的第三人称单数) especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革; involving:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;(involve的现在分词) complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查; opposed:adj.强烈反对; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的过去分词和过去式) highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; regulated:v.约束,控制,管理;(regulate的过去式和过去分词) transportation:n.运输;运输系统;运输工具;流放;
Regulations and other obstacles aren’t inherently bad— they’re often designed to keep people safe— but they do tend to scare off investors, and that’s what traps good ideas in the valley of death: their funding dries up before they can become profitable . 监管以及其它障碍的本意 并不是阻挠新发明, 而是为保障人类安全所设计的。 但确实它们会吓跑一些投资人, 而这也是造成好点子 最后夭折于死亡谷的原因: 在研发产品开始盈利前 筹集的资金已消耗殆尽。
One of the fields where this problem is most pressing today is zero-carbon technologies . 现在受此现象影响较大的领域之一 是零碳技术。
They’re essential to our future because they will help us eliminate greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize our climate. 它们对我们未来的发展非常重要, 因为它们能够减少温室气体的排放, 稳定地球气候。
Regulations:n.章程;规则;法规;管理,控制;(regulation的复数) obstacles:n.障碍;障碍物;阻碍;(obstacle的复数形式) inherently:adv.内在地;固有地;天性地; traps:n.陷阱,捕捉器; v.使落入险境; (trap的第三人称单数和复数) funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词) profitable:adj.有利可图的;赚钱的;有益的; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); essential:n.要点;要素;实质;必需品;adj.完全必要的;必不可少的;极其重要的;本质的; eliminate:v.消除;排除; greenhouse gas:n.温室气体(尤指二氧化碳); emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数) stabilize:vt.使稳固,使安定;vi.稳定,安定;
But they also have features that make them particularly vulnerable in the valley of death. 但是零碳技术本身 在面对死亡谷的时候, 也有致命弱点。
Let’s look at why that is, and how we can change it. 让我们探究一下为何会出现如此现象, 以及我们如何去改善这些薄弱点。
All new technologies must go through a development phase before they can become profitable. 所有的新兴技术在开始盈利前 都会经过一个开发阶段。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的; phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做;
For zero-carbon technologies, the costs of this phase are high, the timelines are long, and, in spite of the good they can do, demand is often low because they can require big changes in both infrastructure and consumer behavior. 对于零碳技术来讲, 在开发阶段里 投入成本很高、耗时长, 而且除了技术对环境的正面影响, 市场需求其实很小, 因为它们对于基础设施 以及消费习惯的要求, 市场需要做出极大改变。
For example, electric heat pumps don’t burn fossil fuels and, when you factor in savings on energy use, are cost-competitive with gas furnaces , but homeowners only change their heating and cooling systems every few decades. 比如,电热泵不燃烧化石燃料, 而且从能源使用节省的角度考虑时, 电热泵与燃烧煤气的成本相似, 但是对居民而言, 加热和制冷系统往往几十年才更换一次。
timelines:n.时间线;大事记(timeline的复数); in spite of:尽管;不管,不顾; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者; electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的; pumps:n.[机]泵; v.用泵送; fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的; savings:n.节省物;节省;节约;储蓄金;存款;(saving的复数) cost-competitive:有成本竞争力的; furnaces:n.炉子,[炉窑]熔炉(furnace复数形式); homeowners:n.私房屋主;自己拥有住房者;
Direct air capture technologies, meanwhile , remove CO2 directly from the atmosphere . 而此时,直接空气捕获技术 能够直接把二氧化碳从大气中移除。
We need these technologies to reach our emissions goals, and several of them have already been proven to work, but they’re at risk of getting trapped in the valley of death because they're expensive. 我们需要这些技术 去达成我们的排放目标, 有些技术也已经被证实有效, 但因为费用高昂, 但它们仍有可能被腰斩在死亡谷里。
capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 meanwhile:adv.同时,其间;n.其间,其时; directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; trapped:adj.受困的;受限制的;v.使落入险境;使陷入困境;(trap的过去分词和过去式)
This creates a vicious cycle because the best way to lower costs is by, well, practicing: making more of a product and refining it. 这就形成了一个恶性循环, 因为降低成本的最佳方式是实践: 充分挖掘一个产品 并且不断对其进行改进。
But high initial costs scare off investors, and without their money, companies can’t continue to develop their technologies— and can't ultimately decrease costs. 但是高昂的启动资金会吓跑投资者, 没有了他们的投资, 于是这些公司就无法继续 研发它们的技术—— 因此最终的产品使用成本 也不会降低。
vicious:adj.恶毒的;恶意的;堕落的;有错误的;品性不端的;剧烈的; refining:v.精炼;提纯;去除杂质;改进;(refine的现在分词) initial:adj.最初的; n.(名字的)首字母; v.用姓名的首字母作标记(或签名)于; ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置;
Fortunately , there’s a way to break this cycle: governments can help close the gap , when private investors won’t fund technologies with such a high potential for social benefit. 但是幸运的是,有一个方法 可以打破这个循环: 政府可以介入来填平这个坑, 尤其是当私人投资人不会对 具有高社会回报率的技术 进行投资的时候。
This isn’t just theoretical : in the 1990s, functioning solar panels existed, but weren’t widely adopted because of their cost. 这并不仅存在于理论层面: 在上世纪 90 年代, 功能太阳能电池板问世, 但是由于它们的使用成本高, 市场渗透率很低。
To change this, Germany offered government loans to companies creating solar panels, and legally obligated utility companies to buy electricity produced using renewable energy. 为改善这一情况,德国政府 向制造这些太阳能电池板的公司提供贷款, 并且在法律上强制公用事业企业 去购买这些利用可再生能源 产生的电力。
Fortunately:adv.幸运地; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; theoretical:adj.理论的;理论上的;假设的;推理的; panels:n.面板(panel的复数); v.嵌镶(panel的第三人称单数形式); adopted:adj.被收养的;被采用的;v.采用;接受;(adopt的过去式和过去分词); obligated:adj.有义务的,有责任的,必须的; v.使负有义务; (obligate的过去式和过去分词) utility:n.公用事业;实用;实用程序;adj.多用途的;多效用的; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的;n.再生性能源;
The U.S. and China followed suit by financing major solar panel projects. 美国与中国政府也随之 资助大型太阳能电池板项目。
The cost of solar has dropped almost 90% since 2009, making it much easier to adopt. 从 2009 年开始, 太阳能的成本下降了近乎 90% , 从而促进太阳能的推广。
A similar thing happened for wind energy: during the oil crisis of the 1970s, Denmark invested in wind power and started taxing winds’ fossil fuel-based competitors. 这同样也适用于风能: 在上世纪 70 年代的石油危机中, 丹麦投资了风能 并且向风能的竞争者 化石燃料征税。
solar panel:n.太阳能电池板; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式)
Other countries took similar steps, and as more wind power was generated worldwide , the costs of this technology dropped dramatically . 其它的国家也采取了类似举措, 于是世界上越来越多的地方 开始生产风能, 这项技术的成本也大幅下降。
These success stories tell us that government initiatives work— initiatives like boosting spending on research and development , offering tax and loan incentives to startups that want to develop zero-carbon technologies and consumers who want to buy them, and putting a price on carbon emissions. 这些成功案例告诉我们 政府的积极倡议是有用的。 比如增加对于研发的开支; 面向开发零碳技术的创业公司 以及有购买需求的消费者 提供税收和贷款优惠政策;
generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地; initiatives:n.积极性;主动权(initiative的复数);创始; boosting:n.助推,局部通风;升压加力;v.推进(boost的现在分词形式); research and development:n.研究和开发; incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施; startups:n.创业(startup的复数);开办; consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数) carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的;
We need governments to do what they did for solar and wind for many more innovations. 我们需要政府为更多的创新发明 做出它们推广太阳能和风能时的举措。
At the end of the day, ideas and inventions alone can’t solve our most daunting problems— policies and markets have to be shaped so the most promising technologies can succeed. 到头来,单凭创意和发明本身 不能解决现今最艰巨的问题。 要使最具潜力的技术获得成功, 塑造适宜的政策和市场环境 为当务之急。
daunting:adj.令人生畏的:令人胆怯的:v.使胆怯:使失去信心;(daunt的现在分词) policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数)