StevenPinker.2018-.世界是在变好还是变糟？让数字说话吧.；TED演讲稿

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StevenPinker_2018-_世界是在变好还是变糟？让数字说话吧_
Many people face the news each morning with trepidation and dread .	许多人每天早上起床看新闻时, 总带着不安和恐惧的心情。
trepidation:n.恐惧;惊恐;忧虑;颤抖; dread:n.恐惧;可怕的人(或物);vi.惧怕;担心;vt.惧怕;担心;adj.可怕的;
Every day, we read of shootings, inequality, pollution, dictatorship , war and the spread of nuclear weapons.	每天,我们都会获悉关于枪击、不平等、污染、独裁、战争,以及核武散布的资讯。
dictatorship:n.专政;独裁权;独裁者职位; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
These are some of the reasons that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever."	2016 年之所以被称为「史上最糟的一年」背后是有原因的。
Until 2017 claimed that record --	直到 2017 年又更胜一筹抢下这头衔──
claimed:v.宣称;声称;断言;索取;认领;索要(claim的过去分词和过去式)
(Laughter)	（笑声）
and left many people longing for earlier decades, when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.	让许多人渴望能回到早期的年代, 回到世界似乎比较安全、比较干净,且比较平等的年代。
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition in the 21st century?	但在 21 世纪,用这样的方式来了解人类的条件,合理吗？
sensible:adj.明智的; n.可感觉到的东西;
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory."	如富兰克林·皮尔斯·亚当斯所言: 「对于过去的好日子, 最需要负起责任的, 就是不好的记忆。」
Pierce:v.穿透;扎;刺破;穿过;n.皮尔斯; responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的;
(Laughter)	（笑声）
You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare bleeding headlines of the present with rose-tinted images of the past.	你总是可以自欺欺人地看到衰落, 如果你把当前流血的头条拿来和过去染上玫瑰色的影像相比。
decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降; compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较; bleeding:n.出血;渗色;adj.流血的;同情的;v.出血;渗出;(bleed的现在分词) rose-tinted:adj.玫瑰色的;希望的;乐观的; images:n.印象;声誉;形象;画像;雕像;(image的第三人称单数和复数)
What does the trajectory of the world look like when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick ?	世界的轨道看起来会是什么模样, 如果我们用衡常不变的标准来测量不同时间的幸福指数？
trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道; well-being:n.幸福;康乐; yardstick:n.码尺;
Let's compare the most recent data on the present with the same measures 30 years ago.	让我们拿最近的现代资料和 30 年前同样的测量值做比较。
Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, had seven percent of their citizens in poverty and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter and four million tons of sulfur dioxide .	去年,美国人自相残杀的比率是每十万人就有 5.3 人, 贫穷公民的比率是 7%, 排放了 2100 万吨的微粒状物质, 以及 400 万吨的二氧化硫。
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; emitted:adj.射出的;v.排放(emit的过去分词);发散; particulate:adj.微粒的;n.微粒,微粒状物质; sulfur:vt.用硫磺处理;n.硫磺;硫磺色; dioxide:n.二氧化物;
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand, poverty rate was 12 percent and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.	但 30 年前,谋杀案的比率为每十万人有 8.5 人, 贫穷比率则是 12%, 我们排放了 3500 万吨微粒状物质, 以及 2000 万吨的二氧化硫。
homicide:n.杀人;杀人犯;
What about the world as a whole ?	整个世界的状况又如何？
as a whole:总的来说;
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 60 autocracies , 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.	去年世上有 12 场战事未歇, 60 个独裁政体, 世界有 10% 的赤贫人口, 和超过一万件核武。
ongoing:n.发展; adj.持续存在的; autocracies:n.独裁政治;专制政治;独裁政府;独裁统治的国家; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.	但 30 年前,有 23 场战争, 85 个独裁政体, 37% 的赤贫人口, 和超过六万件核武。
True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths, but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.	的确,就西欧的恐怖主义来说, 去年是很糟的一年, 造成 238 人死亡, 但 1988 年更糟,有 440 人死亡。
terrorism:n.恐怖主义;
What's going on?	怎么回事？
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?	1988 年是特别不好的一年吗？
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, gets better over time?	或者,这些改善其实是个征兆, 显示在所有的困难议题上, 世界随时间变得更好？
improvements:n.改善;改进;改善的事物;(improvement的复数)
Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress?	是不是甚至能承认,我们符合了「进步」这个老式观念呢？
invoke:vt.调用;祈求;引起;恳求; admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地; old-fashioned:adj.老式的;过时的;守旧的; notion:n.观念;信念;理解;
To do so is to court a certain amount of derision , because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.	这么做,其实会受到相当的嘲笑, 因为我发现,知识分子讨厌进步。
derision:n.嘲笑;嘲笑的对象; intellectuals:n.[劳经]知识分子(intellectual的复数);
(Laughter)	（笑声）
(Applause)	（掌声）
And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.	自称进步分子的知识分子其实很讨厌进步。
progressive:adj.进步的;先进的;开明的;稳步的;n.进步人士;开明人士;改革派;
(Laughter)	（笑声）
Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you.	请注意,这并不是说他们讨厌进步的果实。
Most academics and pundits would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it.	大部分的学者和权威者在手术时偏好用麻醉的还是多于不用麻醉的。
academics:n.学术水平;学术知识;专业学者; pundits:权威(pundit的复数); would rather:宁愿,宁可; surgery:n.外科;外科手术;手术室;诊疗室; anesthesia:n.麻醉;麻木(等于anaesthesia);
It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class.	是「进步」这个想法让这个喋喋不休的阶层感到痛苦。
rankles:vi.化脓;怨恨;发炎;vt.使怨恨;使疼痛;使痛苦; chattering:n.[机]颤振,震颤;颤动;v.唠叨;震颤(chatter的现在分词);
If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told, that means that you have a blind faith and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition	有人告诉我,如果相信人类可以改善命运, 那就表示你的信念盲目, 你对过时的迷信有宗教般的信仰,
faith:n.信心;信任;宗教信仰; outmoded:adj.过时的,不流行的;v.使不流行(outmode的过去分词); superstition:n.迷信;
and the false promise of the myth of the onward march of inexorable progress.	而且你对未来的进展神话怀抱着虚假的希望。
myth:n.神话;虚构的人,虚构的事; onward:adj.向前的;前进的;adv.向前;在前面; inexorable:adj.无情的;不屈不挠的;不可阻挡的;无法改变的;
You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism, with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology ,	你盲从地喝采美国通俗的「做得到主义」、会议室的意识形态、
cheerleader:n.拉拉队队员; vulgar:adj.粗俗的;通俗的;本土的;n.平民,百姓; rah-rah:adj.为己方大声叫好的; n."好哇"的欢呼声; boardroom:n.会议室;交换场所; ideology:n.意识形态;思想意识;观念学;
Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce .	硅谷和商会。（注:对资本主义信仰者的侮辱说法）
Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地); Chamber of Commerce:n.商会;
You are a practitioner of Whig history, a naive optimist , a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss, alluding to the Voltaire character who declared, "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."	你是辉格党历史的实践者、（注:英国历史上的一个政党）天真的乐观者、乐天派, 当然,也是班格罗斯博士, 指的是伏尔泰笔下的角色,他宣称: 「在最好的世界中,一切的发生都是为了最好的结果。」
practitioner:n.开业者,从业者,执业医生; naive:adj.天真的,幼稚的; optimist:n.乐观主义者;乐天派; Pollyanna:n.盲目乐观的人; alluding:v.间接提到;暗指;影射;(allude的现在分词) Voltaire:n.伏尔泰(法国启蒙思想家,哲学家,作家,历史学家); for the best:出于好意;
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist .	好巧不巧,班格罗斯博士是位悲观主义者。
pessimist:n.悲观主义者;
A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds than the one we have today.	真正的乐观主义者相信有比现今世界好得多的世界存在。
But all of this is irrelevant , because the question of whether progress has taken place is not a matter of faith or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full.	但这些都不相干, 因为,是否有进步并不是信念的问题, 也不是有乐观性情或是看到半满杯子的问题。
irrelevant:adj.不相干的;不切题的; optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; temperament:n.气质,性情,性格;急躁;
It's a testable hypothesis .	它是个可试验的假设。
testable:adj.可试验的;有资格立遗嘱的;可根据遗嘱处理的;有资格作证人的; hypothesis:n.假设;
For all their differences, people largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance , prosperity , peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure , happiness.	虽然人的差异很大, 大多数人都同意人类的幸福包括生命、健康、食物、繁榮、和平、自由、安全、知识、休闲、快乐。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; sustenance:n.食物;生计;支持; prosperity:n.繁荣,成功; leisure:n.休闲;闲暇;空闲;adj.闲暇的;
All of these things can be measured .	上述这些都是可测量的。
measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式)
If they have improved over time, that, I submit , is progress.	如果它们都随着时间改善了, 我认为那就是进步。
improved:adj.改良的:v.改进:改善(improve的过去分词和过去式) submit:vt.使服从;主张;呈递;vi.提交;服从;
Let's go to the data, beginning with the most precious thing of all, life.	让我们看资料, 从当中最珍贵的一项开始:生命。
precious:adj.宝贵的;珍贵的;矫揉造作的;
For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30.	人类史上大部分时期出生时预期的寿命是 30 岁。
life expectancy:预期寿命;
Today, worldwide , it is more than 70, and in the developed parts of the world, more than 80.	今天全世界超过 70 岁, 在世界上已开发的区域, 还会超过 80 岁。
worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地;
250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world, a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday, before the risk was brought down a hundredfold .	250 年前,在世界上最有钱的国家中, 三分之一的孩子没办法活到 5 岁生日, 后来这个风险数字下降了百倍之多。
hundredfold:n.百倍;adj.百倍的;
Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children in the poorest countries of the world.	现今世界最贫穷的国家有这种命运的孩子不到 6%。
befalls:vi.降临;vt.降临;发生;
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse .	饥荒是启示录中的四骑士之一。
Famine:n.饥荒; Horsemen:n.骑兵;骑士(horseman的复数); Apocalypse:n.启示;天启;
It could bring devastation to any part of the world.	它能蹂躏世界上的任何一个区域。
devastation:n.毁坏,荒废;
Today, famine has been banished to the most remote and war-ravaged regions .	现今,饥荒已经被流放到最偏远、被战争破坏的地区。
banished:v.放逐;流放;赶走;驱除;(banish的过去分词和过去式) remote:adj.偏远的;偏僻的;遥远的;久远的; regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数)
200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population subsisted in extreme poverty.	200 年前,世界人口有 90% 过着极度贫穷的生活。
subsisted:v.维持生命;生存;存在;继续存在;(subsisted是subsist的过去式);
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.	现今,这样的人剩下不到 10%。
For most of human history, the powerful states and empires were pretty much always at war with each other, and peace was a mere interlude between wars.	在人类历史上大部分时期, 强大的国家和帝王总是在彼此交战, 和平仅是战争间的插曲。
mere:adj.仅仅的;只不过的;n.小湖;池塘; interlude:n.插曲;穿插;幕间节目;[数]插算;v.使中断;插入;
Today, they are never at war with each other.	现今,他们都不再打仗了。
The last great power war pitted the United States against China 65 years ago.	最后一次大型的权力战争是 65 年前美国与中国的战争。
pitted:adj.表面有小点(或小洞)的; v.使…表面有斑点; (pit的过去分词和过去式) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
More recently , wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly .	更近期,各种战争都变少了, 也不那么致命。
recently:adv.最近;新近; deadly:adj.致命的;非常的;死一般的;adv.非常;如死一般地;
The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year in the early '50s to 1.2 today.	年战争率已经从 50 年代初期的十万分之 22 下降到今天的十万分之 1.2。
annual:n.年报;年鉴;年刊;adj.每年的;年度的;一年的;
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks in Venezuela , in Russia, in Turkey and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism in Eastern Europe and the United States.	民主碰到了很明显的挫败, 在委内瑞拉、俄国和土耳其, 且受到东欧及美国专制民粹主义兴起的威胁。
Democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治; obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; setbacks:n.挫折;周折(setback复数); Venezuela:n.委内瑞拉; authoritarian:adj.独裁主义的;权力主义的;n.权力主义者;独裁主义者; populism:n.民粹主义,平民主义; Eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒;
Yet the world has never been more democratic than it has been in the past decade, with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies .	然而以前的世界未曾像过去十年间这么民主过, 三分之二的世人活在民主中。
democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的; two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地; democracies:民主;
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law.	只要无政府状态和仇杀法被法治所取代, 谋杀率就会骤降。
plunge:v.暴跌;使突然前冲(或下落);骤降;突降;n.跳水;突然跌落;突然分离;骤减; anarchy:n.无政府状态;混乱;无秩序; vendetta:n.(尤指族间或血亲间的)仇杀;深仇;
It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms, so that today a Western European has 1/35th the chance of being murdered compared to his medieval ancestors.	在封建的欧洲被中央集权王国控制时发生过, 所以,现今在西欧被谋杀的机率,只有中世纪祖先被谋杀之机率的三十五分之一。
feudal:adj.封建制度的;领地的;世仇的; under the control of:受控制;置于控制之下; centralized:adj.集中的;中央集权的;v.集中(centralize的过去分词); compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) medieval:adj.中世纪的;原始的;仿中世纪的;老式的;
It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico.	同样的情形在新英格兰殖民时期、警长进驻小镇的美国大西部, 和墨西哥,也都发生过。
colonial:n.殖民地居民;adj.殖民地的,殖民的; sheriffs:n.州长;郡治安官;执行吏;
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way.	的确,几乎在每个层面上我们都比以前更安全。
Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely to be killed in a car crash , 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk , 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job ,	在过去一百年, 在人行道上惨死的机率减少了 88%, 因为坠机而死的机率减少了 99%, 工作时送命的机率减少了 95%,
car crash:n.车祸; mowed:v.用镰刀等刈草;割草(mow的过去分词); sidewalk:n.人行道; killed on the job:因公殉职;
89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God , such as a drought , flood, wildfire , storm, volcano , landslide , earthquake or meteor strike, presumably not because God has become less angry with us but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure .	因天灾而死的机率减少了 89%, 天灾包括旱灾、洪水、野火、暴风、火山、土石流、地震,或陨石坠落, 这应该不是因为上帝对我们不那么生气了, 而是因为改善了基础建设的韧性。
act of God:天灾;不可抗力;天意;自然灾害; drought:n.干旱;缺乏; wildfire:n.火灾;磷火,鬼火;散布极快的事物; volcano:n.火山; landslide:n.[地质]山崩;大胜利;vi.发生山崩;以压倒优势获胜; meteor:n.流星;[气象]大气现象; presumably:adv.大概;推测起来;可假定; resilience:n.恢复力;弹力;顺应力; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
And what about the quintessential act of God, the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?	那么,典型的上帝作为呢？宙斯自己猛力投射的攻击呢？
quintessential:adj.精髓的,精萃的; projectile:adj.抛射的; n.射弹; hurled:v.猛扔;大声说出(辱骂或斥责等);呕吐;(hurl的过去分词和过去式)
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning .	是的,我们被闪电打中而死的机率也一样减少了 97%。
bolt:n.螺栓; v.狼吞虎咽; v.突然; lightning:n.闪电;adj.闪电般的;飞快的;突然的
Before the 17th century, no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write.	在 17 世纪之前, 能读能写的欧洲人不到 15%。
no more than:adv.只是;仅仅; Europeans:n.欧洲人(European的复数);
Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy by the middle of the 20th century, and the rest of the world is catching up.	欧洲和美国在 20 世纪中期达成了全体识字的目标, 世界其他国家也陆续追了上来。
universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; literacy:n.读写能力;精通文学;
Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population under the age of 25 can read and write.	现今,世界上 25 岁以下的人口, 超过 90% 都能读和写。
under the age of:在年龄之下;16岁以下;
In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week.	在 19 世纪,西方人每周要工作超过 60 小时,
Westerners:n.西方人(westerner的复数);
Today, they work fewer than 40.	现今则不到 40 小时。
Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity in the developed world and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, dishwashers , stoves and microwaves ,	多亏了在已开发世界中普及的自来水和电力, 以及被广泛使用的洗衣机、吸尘器、电冰箱、洗碗机、炉子,和微波炉,
penetration:n.渗透;突破;侵入;洞察力; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; widespread:adj.普遍的,广泛的;分布广的; adoption:n.采用;收养;接受; vacuum:n.真空; adj.真空的; v.用真空吸尘器清扫; dishwashers:n.洗碗机(dishwasher的复数); microwaves:n.[物]微波; v.用微波炉烹调(microwave的单三形式);
the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework to fewer than 15 hours a week.	我们人生中耗费在家事上的时间, 落至不到每周 15 小时。
forfeit:n.罚金; adj.因受罚而丧失的; v.(因犯罪,失职,违约等)丧失(权利,名誉,生命等);
Do all of these gains in health, wealth , safety, knowledge and leisure make us any happier?	在健康、财富、安全、知识,和休闲上的收获, 有让我们更快乐吗？
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
The answer is yes.	答案是,有。
In 86 percent of the world's countries, happiness has increased in recent decades.	世界上有 86% 的国家在近数十年间,快乐程度都有增加。
Well, I hope to have convinced you that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism , but is a fact of human history, indeed the greatest fact in human history.	我希望我已经说服了各位, 进步并不是信念或乐观主义的问题, 而是人类历史上的一件事实, 可说是人类历史上最伟大的事实。
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式) optimism:n.乐观;乐观主义;
And how has this fact been covered in the news?	而新闻是怎么报导这件事实的？
(Laughter)	（笑声）
A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,	把新闻报导中用到的正面和负面情绪用字制成表格, 就能看出,在人类变得更健康、更有钱、更聪明、更安全,且更快乐的这数十年间,
tabulation:n.表格;作表; positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝; emotion:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer .	《纽约时报》变得越来越阴郁, 世界的广播也都很稳定地变得越来越闷闷不乐。
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; morose:adj.郁闷的;孤僻的; steadily:adv.稳定地;稳固地;有规则地; glummer:adj.阴郁的;(glummer是glum的比较级);
Why don't people appreciate progress?	为什么大家不赏识进步？
appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology .	部分答案来自我们的认知心理学。
cognitive:adj.认知的,认识的; psychology:n.心理学;心理状态;
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the " availability heuristic ."	我们用一种叫做「易得性法则」的心理捷径来估计风险。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本; mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者; shortcut:n.近路;捷径;快捷方式(图标); availability:n.可用性;有效性;实用性; heuristic:adj.启发式的;探索的;n.启发式教育法;
The easier it is to recall something from memory, the more probable we judge it to be.	当我们越容易唤起记忆中的一样事物时, 我们就越可能判断它容易发生。
recall:v.记起;回想起;使想到;勾起;召回;n.记忆力;记性;回归请求;回收令; probable:adj.很可能的;可信的;n.很可能的事;大有希望的候选者;
The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism , captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion,"	另一部分答案来自新闻業的天性, 在这来自《洋葱报》的讽刺头条中就可以看出来:
journalism:n.新闻业,新闻工作;报章杂志; captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词) satirical:adj.讽刺性的;讥讽的;爱挖苦人的;
'"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide	「CNN 开晨间会议来决定
What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."	今天读者应该要对什么感到慌张。」
Panic:adj.恐慌的;n.惊恐;恐慌;惶恐不安;v.惊慌失措;
(Laughter)	（笑声）
(Applause)	（掌声）
News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen.	新闻的重点是已发生的事情, 而非没发生的事情。
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
You never see a journalist who says, "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years,"	你永远不会看到一个新闻记者说: 「我正在一个已经和平了 40 年的国家做实况报导。」
journalist:n.新闻工作者;报人;记日志者;
or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists.	也不会去报导没有被恐怖分子攻击的城市。
Also, bad things can happen quickly, but good things aren't built in a day.	此外,坏事的发生可能很快速, 但好事不是一天就能建造起来的。
The papers could have run the headline, "137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday"	如果报纸用了这头条: 「昨天 137,000 人脱离赤贫」,
every day for the last 25 years.	不可能在接下来 25 年天天都用这头条。
That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind, but you never read about it.	那相当于 12.5 亿人脱离贫穷, 但你从来没有读过这种报导。
Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest in what can go wrong, captured in the programming policy , "If it bleeds , it leads."	此外,新闻要利用我们想看事情能怎么出错的病态心理, 「见到血,才能见头条」这条节目制作政策很一针见血。
capitalizes:vt.使资本化;以大写字母写;估计…的价值;vi.利用;积累资本; morbid:adj.病态的;由病引起的;恐怖的;病变部位的; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; bleeds:v.[印刷]出血(bleed的第三人称单数); n.出血版;
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news, you can see why the world has been coming to an end for a very long time indeed.	如果把我们的认知偏见和新闻的天性结合起来, 你就能了解为什么长年以来都一直在说好像世界末日即将来临一样了。
biases:n.偏差,偏见(bias的复数形式);v.偏见(bias的三单形式);
Let me address some questions about progress that no doubt have occurred to many of you.	无疑地,许多人应该都有一些关于进步的问题想问, 就让我来谈谈。
occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式)
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic to safeguard against complacency , to rake the muck , to speak truth to power?	首先,用悲观的方式来避免自满,来揭发不当行为, 来向当权着说出真相,不好吗？
pessimistic:adj.悲观的,厌世的;悲观主义的; safeguard:n.[安全]保护;保卫;保护措施;vt.[安全]保护,护卫; complacency:n.自满;满足;自鸣得意; rake:vi.搜索;用耙子耙;掠过,擦过;n.耙子;斜度;钱耙;放荡的人,浪子; muck:n.粪便,粪肥;脏东西;泥浆;令人厌恶的事物;v.施粪肥于…
Well, not exactly.	嗯,不见得。
It's good to be accurate .	精确是好事。
accurate:adj.精确的;
Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger wherever they occur, but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced, because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism .	当然,我们应该要在苦难和危险发生时意识到它们的存在, 但我们也应该要意识到如何能减低它们, 因为不分皂白的悲观主义是危险的。
indiscriminate:adj.任意的;无差别的;不分皂白的; pessimism:n.悲观,悲观情绪;厌世主义;
One of them is fatalism .	其中一种危险就是宿命论。
fatalism:n.宿命论;
If all our efforts at improving the world have been in vain , why throw good money after bad?	若我们投入改善世界的所有努力都是白费的, 为何要再砸钱填补无底洞？
improving:v.改进;改善;(improve的现在分词) vain:adj.徒劳的;自负的;无结果的;无用的;
The poor will always be with you.	贫穷永远会与你同在。
And since the world will end soon -- if climate change doesn't kill us all, then runaway artificial intelligence will -- a natural response is to enjoy life while we can, eat, drink and be merry , for tomorrow we die.	既然世界末日很快就会来临── 若我们没有都死于气候变迁, 我们还是会死于失控的人工智能── 自然的反应就是, 趁还可以时尽量享受人生, 去吃喝玩乐,因为我们活不过明天。
runaway:adj.逃亡的;逃走的;n.逃跑;逃走的人; artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; response:n.响应;反应;回答; merry:adj.愉快的;高兴的;
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism .	轻率的悲观主义会带来的另一种危险就是激进主义。
thoughtless:adj.轻率的;欠考虑的;考虑不周的;不顾及他人的; radicalism:n.激进主义;
If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform , a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, drain the swamp , burn the empire to the ground, on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes is bound to be better than what we have now.	如果我们的制度全都没有用, 且也没有改革的希望, 自然的反应就是要想办法砸烂这台机器, 把不好的给根除, 把整个帝国烧毁, 希望不论从灰烬中重生的是什么, 都能够比我们的现况更好。
institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) reform:v.改革;改进;改良;(使)悔改;n.改革;改良;改善; seek:v.寻求;寻找;谋求; smash:v.粉碎; n.破碎; adj.了不起的; drain:v.排水;流干;喝光,耗尽;n.排水;下水道,排水管;消耗; swamp:v.淹没;使不堪承受;使疲于应对;使应接不暇;n.沼泽(地); is bound to:一定会:必然:
Well, if there is such a thing as progress, what causes it?	嗯,如果有「进步」这回事, 是什么造成进步的？
Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher.	进步不是能把我们抬得更高的神秘力量或辩证法;
mystical:adj.神秘的;神秘主义的; dialectic:n.辩证法;逻辑论证;adj.辩证的;辩证法的;方言的;
It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice .	进步不是历史的神秘弧形, 朝向正义的方向弯曲;
mysterious:adj.神秘的;不可思议的;难解的; justice:n.公平;公正;司法制度;审判;
It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea, an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment , namely that if we apply reason and science that enhance human well-being, we can gradually succeed.	而是由想法支配人类努力的结果, 这想法和 18 世纪启蒙运动有关, 也就是,如果我们运用增进人类福祉的理性和科学, 我们可以逐渐成功。
associate with:v.联合;与…联系在一起;和…来往; Enlightenment:n.启迪;启蒙运动;教化; namely:adv.也就是;即是;换句话说; apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; enhance:v.提高;增强;增进; gradually:adv.渐渐地;逐步地;
Is progress inevitable ? Of course not.	进步是必然的吗？当然不是。
inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
Progress does not mean that everything becomes better for everyone everywhere all the time.	进步并不表示随时随地任何人的一切都会变更好。
That would be a miracle , and progress is not a miracle but problem-solving .	那叫做奇迹,而进步并不是奇迹, 而是解决问题。
miracle:n.奇迹,奇迹般的人或物;惊人的事例; problem-solving:adj.问题解决的;n.解决问题;找出问题的答案;
Problems are inevitable and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn.	问题是无可避免的, 而解决方案会创造出新的问题来, 接着又要解决这些问题。
The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan , including the risks of climate change and nuclear war, but we must see them as problems to be solved, not apocalypses in waiting, and aggressively pursue solutions like deep decarbonization for climate change and global zero for nuclear war.	现今世界面对巨大的问题, 包括气候变迁的风险, 以及核战, 但我们必须视它们为有待解决的问题, 而不是等着即将到来的世界末日, 并要很进取地去寻找解决方案, 就像针对气候变迁要深度减碳; 针对核战要全球零核。
unsolved:adj.未解决的;未解答的; gargantuan:adj.庞大的,巨大的; apocalypses:n.[基督]天启;[圣]《启示录》;(apocalypses是apocalypse的复数); aggressively:adv.侵略地;攻击地;有闯劲地; pursue:v.继续;从事;追赶;纠缠; decarbonization:n.脱碳作用;除碳法; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
Finally , does the Enlightenment go against human nature ?	最后,启蒙运动是否有违人类天性？
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; go against:不利于;违反;反对; human nature:n.人性;
This is an acute question for me, because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, with all its shortcomings and perversities .	对我来说,这是个尖锐的问题, 因为我是人性存在的主要倡导者, 即使这天性有各种缺陷和任性。
acute:adj.严重的,[医]急性的;敏锐的;激烈的;尖声的; prominent:adj.突出的,显著的;杰出的;卓越的; advocate:v.拥护;支持;提倡;n.支持者;提倡者;辩护律师;出庭辩护人; perversities:n.倔强;乖僻;邪恶;堕落;(perversities是perversity的复数);
In my book "The Blank Slate ,"	在我的书《空白的石板》中,
Slate:n.石板;板岩;候选人名单;v.批评;抨击;预定;计划;安排;选定;
I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian and that we are not stardust , we are not golden and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.	我主张人类的前景比乌托邦要更悲剧些, 且我们并非星尘,我们不是黄金的, 所以我们不可能回到花园。（注:一首歌的歌词）
prospect:n.展望;前景;希望;前途;v.勘探;探矿; tragic:adj.悲剧的;悲痛的,不幸的; utopian:adj.乌托邦的;空想的;理想化的;n.空想家;乌托邦的居民; stardust:n.星团;宇宙尘;幻觉;
(Laughter)	（笑声）
But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published.	但在《空白的石板》出版后的 15 年间,我的世界观亮了起来。
worldview:n.世界观; lightened:adj.减轻的;发光的;v.(使)减轻(lighten的过去分词形式);(使)变亮;
My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, starting with violence but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, has fortified my belief that in understanding our tribulations and woes , human nature is the problem,	我最先熟悉的人类进步相关统计数字, 是暴力相关的数字, 但现在包含了我们幸福的每一个面向, 这加强了我的信念, 相信在了解我们的动乱与不幸上, 问题其实是人类天性,
acquaintance:n.认识的人;熟人;略有交情;(对某事物的)了解; statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数) violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲; encompassing:adj.包含的;包容的,环绕;v.围绕,包围(encompass的ing形式); aspect:n.方面;层面;外观;方位; fortified:v.筑防御工事以防卫;加强,增强;(fortify的过去式和过去分词) tribulations:n.苦难(tribulation的复数形式); woes:n.麻烦;问题;困难;痛苦;苦恼;悲伤;(woe的复数)
but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, is also the solution .	但透过启蒙标准与制度做为管道, 人类天性也同样是解决方案。
channeled:adj.有沟的;槽形的;v.引导;在…上开渠;输送;(channel的过去分词) norms:n.[标准]标准,规范;基准(norm复数形式); solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany with humanity at large.	显然,很难把我自己透过资料而导出的醒悟, 复制到人类总体上。
replicate:vt.复制; vi.重复; adj.复制的; n.复制品; data-driven:adj.依照数据处理的; epiphany:对事物真谛的顿悟;
Some intellectuals have responded with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"	所以,知识分子对我的书《现在的启蒙》反应是非常愤怒,
responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词) fury:n.狂怒;暴怒;激怒者;
saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.	首先,说他怎么有胆子声称知识分子讨厌进步, 再来,他怎么有胆子声称有进步。
(Laughter)	（笑声）
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold.	对于其他人,进步的想法只让他们心寒。
Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease , feeding the hungry, teaching kids to read?	拯救数十亿人的性命, 消灭疾病,提供食物给饥饿的人, 教孩子识字？
eradicating:根除; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
Boring .	无聊。
Boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
lor="Black"> At the same time , the most common response I have received from readers is lor="Black"> gratitude , gratitude for changing their view of the world from a numb and helpless fatalism to something more lor="Black" > c onstructive , even heroic.	同时,我从读者得到的回应中, 最常见的是感激, 感激我改变了他们的世界观, 从一种麻木和无助的宿命论, 变得更有建设性, 甚至更英勇。
At the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; gratitude:n.感谢(的心情);感激;
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment can be cast a stirring narrative , and I hope that people with greater artistic flare and rhetorical power than I can tell it better and spread it further.	我相信,启蒙的理想能被用很激动人心的方式描述, 我希望比我更有艺术气息和修辞能力的人, 能说得更好,传播得更远更广。
stirring:adj.激动人心的; n.开始,出现,酝酿; v.搅动; (stir的现在分词) narrative:n.叙述;故事;讲述;adj.叙事的,叙述的;叙事体的; artistic:adj.艺术的;风雅的;有美感的; flare:vt.使闪耀; vi.闪耀,闪光; n.闪光,闪耀; rhetorical:adj.修辞的;修辞学的;夸张的;
It goes something like this.	类似这样。
We are born into a pitiless universe, facing steep odds against life-enabling order and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.	我们出生在无情的世界, 面临着对生命有利的秩序的严重冲击, 并且一直处于崩溃的危险之中。
pitiless:adj.冷酷的,无情的;无同情心的; steep:adj.陡峭的;不合理的;夸大的;急剧升降的;v.泡;浸;使…充满;n.峭壁;浸渍; odds:n.几率;胜算;不平等;差别; jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive .	形塑我们的过程, 是个无情竞争的过程。
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; ruthlessly:adv.无情地;残忍地;冷酷地; competitive:adj.竞争的;比赛的;求胜心切的;
We are made from crooked timber , vulnerable to illusions , self-centeredness and at times astounding stupidity .	我们是用歪曲的木材制成的, 容易产生幻想,以自我为中心, 有时甚至还惊人的愚蠢。
crooked:adj.扭曲的;弯曲的;不直的;v.(手指或手臂)弯曲;(crook的过去分词和过去式) timber:n.木材;木料; vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的; illusions:n.幻想;错觉;幻觉;幻影(illusion的复数) self-centeredness:自我中心; astounding:adj.令人震惊的;使大吃一惊的;v.使震惊;使大惊;(astound的现在分词) stupidity:n.愚蠢;糊涂事;
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources that open a space for a kind of redemption .	然而,人类天性也因资源而得福, 这些资源打开了某种救赎用的空间。
blessed:adj.神圣的; v.求上帝降福于; (bless的过去分词和过去式) resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); redemption:n.赎回;拯救;偿还;实践;
We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively , to have thoughts about our thoughts.	我们被赋予不断递回式地将想法结合的力量, 对我们的想法有所想法的力量。
endowed:v.赋予;捐赠; recursively:adv.递归地;递回地;
We have an instinct for language, allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience.	我们对于语言具有直觉, 让我们能分享我们心灵手巧和经验的果实。
instinct:n.本能;天性;直觉;adj.充满的; ingenuity:n.心灵手巧,独创性;精巧;精巧的装置;
We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy , for pity, imagination , compassion , commiseration .	我们还有更深一层的能力, 会同情、怜惜、想像、同理、怜悯。
deepened:v.加强,变强烈;(使)变糟,恶化,严重;(使)变深;(deepen的过去分词和过去式) capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力; sympathy:n.同情;慰问;赞同; imagination:n.想象;想象力;创造力;想象的事物; compassion:n.同情;怜悯; commiseration:n.同情;
These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power.	这些才能已经找到放大本身力量的方式。
endowments:n.禀赋;才能(endowment的复数); magnify:vt.放大;赞美;夸大;vi.放大;有放大能力;
The scope of language has been augmented by the written, printed and electronic word.	语言的范围已经被扩增, 靠的是书写、列印,和电子文字。
scope:n.能力; v.仔细看; augmented:adj.增广的;增音的;扩张的; electronic:adj.电子的;电子器件的;电子设备的;
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded by history, journalism and the narrative arts.	我们的同情圈已经被扩展, 靠的是历史、新闻,和叙事性艺术。
expanded:adj.扩充的;展开的;vt.扩大(expand的过去式);
And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied by the norms and institutions of reason, intellectual curiosity , open debate , skepticism of authority and dogma and the burden of proof to verify ideas by confronting them against reality.	我们微不足道的理性机能已经倍增, 靠的是理性的标准和制度、需要智力的好奇心、公开辩论、对于权威及污名的怀疑态度, 和通过面对现实来验证观点的举证责任。
puny:adj.弱小的;微不足道的;微小的; rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的; faculties:n.系,学院;才能,能力;全体教员(faculty的复数形式); multiplied:v.乘;乘以;成倍增加;(使)繁殖,增殖;(multiply的过去分词和过去式) curiosity:n.好奇,好奇心;珍品,古董,古玩; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; skepticism:n.怀疑论;怀疑的态度; authority:n.权威;权力;当局; dogma:n.教条,教理;武断的意见; burden of proof:n.举证责任; verify:vt.核实;查证; confronting:v.直面;无法回避;降临于;处理;对抗;(confront的现在分词)
As the spiral of recursive improvement gathers momentum , we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, not least the darker parts of our own nature.	随着递回式改善的螺旋势头越来越强劲, 在对抗压榨我们的力量时, 我们的胜算增加了, 特别是我们自身天性中较黑暗的部分。
spiral:n.螺旋;旋涡;螺旋形之物;adj.螺旋形的;v.使成螺旋形;vi.盘旋;螺旋形上升; momentum:n.势头;[物]动量;动力;冲力; eke:vt.竭力增补;勉强维持;竭力维持; grind:v.磨碎;磨快;n.磨;苦工作;
We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos , including life and mind.	我们看透了宇宙的神秘, 包括生命和心智。
penetrate:v.渗透;进入;穿过;看透; cosmos:n.宇宙;和谐;秩序;大波斯菊;
We live longer, suffer less, learn more, get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures and rich experiences.	我们活得更久, 受得苦难更少,学习得更多, 变得更聪明,享受更多小小的乐趣, 以及丰富的经验。
Fewer of us are killed, assaulted , enslaved , exploited or oppressed by the others.	被他人杀害、攻击、奴役、利用, 或迫害的人数变少了。
assaulted:v.猛烈攻击,袭击,侵犯人身;使(感官)难受;(assault的过去分词和过去式) enslaved:v.使成为奴隶;奴役;使受控制;(enslave的过去分词和过去式) exploited:v.剥削;压榨;运用;利用;发挥(exploit的过去分词和过去式) oppressed:adj.受压制的,受压迫的;v.压迫;折磨(oppress的过去分词);
From a few oases , the territories with peace and prosperity are growing and could someday encompass the globe.	和平繁榮的领域在变大, 从只有几个绿洲, 到有一天会贯穿全球。
oases:n.绿洲(oasis的复数形式); territories:n.地区;领土;边疆区(territory的复数);
Much suffering remains and tremendous peril , but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced, and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived .	许多的苦难和极大的危险仍然存在, 已经有人提出如何减少它们的想法, 还有无数的想法还没被构想出来。
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; peril:n.危险;冒险;vt.危及;置…于险境; infinite:adj.无限的,无穷的; n.无限; conceived:v.构思;设想;(conceive的过去式);
We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one.	我们永远不会有一个完美的世界, 去寻找这样的世界是很危险的。
But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing .	但如果我们继续运用知识来增进人类的繁榮, 那么我们能获得的改善无限。
attain:v.得到;(通常经过努力)获得;达到(某年龄、水平、状况); flourishing:adj.繁荣的;繁茂的;v.繁荣;兴旺;茁壮成长;(flourish的现在分词)
This heroic story is not just another myth.	这英勇的故事并不是另一个神话。
Myths are fictions, but this one is true, true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have.	神话是虚构的,这个故事是真实的, 就我们所知是真实的,而我们的所知就是我们唯一能拥有的真相。
Myths:神话;谬见;
As we learn more, we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false, as any of them might be and any could become.	随着我们越学越多, 我们能够显示出故事中任何部分都有可能是真是假, 也可能变真或成空。
And this story belongs not to any tribe but to all of humanity, to any sentient creature with the power of reason and the urge to persist in its being, for it requires only the convictions that life is better than death, health is better than sickness, abundance is better than want, freedom is better than coercion , happiness is better than suffering and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.	这个故事不属于任何种族, 而是属于全人类的, 属于任何具有理性力量、感知能力, 以及有强烈欲望想要活下来的生物, 因为只需要相信生命比死亡更好, 健康比生病更好, 丰足比缺乏更好, 自由比胁迫更好, 幸福比受苦更好, 知识比无知和迷信更好。
tribe:n.部落;族;宗族;一伙; sentient:adj.有感情的;有感觉力的;意识到的;n.有知觉的人; creature:n.生物;动物;(具有某种特征的)人; persist in:坚持;固执于; convictions:n.判罪;定罪;坚定的看法(或信念);坚信;肯定;(conviction的复数) abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足; coercion:n.强制;强迫;高压政治;威压; ignorance:n.无知,愚昧;不知,不懂;
Thank you.	谢谢。
(Applause)	（掌声）

StevenPinker_2018-_世界是在变好还是变糟？让数字说话吧_