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StevenLevitt_2004-_分析毒品交易经济学_
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You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy , but other people's tragedy. |
你们将会很庆幸我要讲的并非自己的遭遇, 是其他人的遭遇。 |
tragedy:n.悲惨的事;不幸;灾难;悲剧作品;
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It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own, and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference . |
相比亲身经历不幸,别人的遭遇听起来就轻松得多。 我想把这条列为这次大会的基本精神。 |
lighthearted:adj.快乐的,心情愉快的;无忧无虑的; conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
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So, if you believe the media accounts, being a drug dealer in the height of the crack-cocaine epidemic was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel. |
如果你相信媒体的数据, 在可卡因泛滥成灾的时代,作为一个毒品贩子, 用Virginia Postrel的话来说,他们的生活十分绚烂。 |
media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; drug dealer:n.毒品贩子; epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的; glamorous:adj.迷人的,富有魅力的; Virginia:adj.弗吉尼亚州的;
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There was money, there was drugs, guns, women, you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all. |
有金钱,有毒品,有枪,有女人, 还有你所能想到的--珠宝,在那儿熠熠发光--所有这些。 |
bling-bling:珠光宝气的;闪亮的;
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What I'm going to to tell you today is that, in fact, based on ten years of research, a unique opportunity to go inside a gang -- to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang -- that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life. |
但经过十年的研究,今天我要与你们分享 一个独一无二的深入黑帮内部的机会-- 去看看他们最真实的财政纪录-- 你会发现他们的生活一点都不绚烂。 |
unique:adj.独特的,稀罕的;[数]唯一的;n.独一无二的人或物; gang:n.一群; v.(英)去; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
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But I think, more realistically , that being in a gang -- selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America. |
更实际地说,作为黑帮的一员-- 为组织贩卖毒品--可能是全美国最悲惨的工作。 |
realistically:adv.现实地;实际地;逼真地;
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And that's what I'd like to convince you of today. |
今天我要说服你们。 |
convince:v.使确信;使相信;说服,劝说;
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So there are three things I want to do. |
我有三件事要做。 |
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs . |
首先,我会解释为什么快克(片状可卡因) 对城市黑帮的影响如此深远。 |
crack:v.使破裂;打开;变声;n.裂缝;声变;噼啪声;adj.最好的;高明的; cocaine:n.[药]可卡因; profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; inner-city:n.(居民拥挤,住屋破旧的)市中心平民区;adj.市中心的; gangs:n.帮派(gang的复数);v.成帮结伙;合伙行动(gang的三单形式);
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Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang. |
其次,我想告诉你们 我是如何了解到黑帮的内幕的。 |
workings:n.作用;工作方式;操作(working的复数);
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It's an interesting story, I think. |
这个故事很有趣,至少我是这么认为的。 |
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at the financial records -- the books -- of the gang. |
最后,我想要用一种很通俗易懂的方式, 告诉你们我们所找到的和看到的-- 黑手党的账本。 |
superficial:adj.表面的;肤浅的;表面文章的;外表的;(人)浅薄的;
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So before I do that, just one warning, which is that this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America. |
开始前有个小警告, 这个演讲已被美国电影协会列为限制级, |
presentation:n.展示;描述,陈述;介绍;赠送; Motion Picture:adj.电影的; Association:n.协会;关联;联想;交往;
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It contains adult themes, adult language. |
其中涉及成人话题及用语。 |
Given who is up on the stage , you'll be delighted to know that in fact there'll be no nudity , barring a -- |
鉴于演讲者是我,你会知道实际上 这个演讲不会有什么赤裸裸的东西, 除非-- |
on the stage:在舞台上;现阶段;当演员; delighted:adj.高兴的; v.使高兴; (delight的过去分词和过去式) nudity:n.裸露;裸体像;
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside. |
-意料之外的事件。 |
unexpected:adj.意外的,想不到的; wardrobe:n.衣柜;衣橱;(英国)放置衣物的壁橱;(一个人的)全部衣物; malfunctions:n.失灵;故障,功能障碍;(malfunction的复数)
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang. |
现在我开始讲讲快克是如何改造了黑帮的。 |
transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式)
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And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine, in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader. |
你首先得回到没有快克的时代, 作为一个黑帮头头。 |
perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的;
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So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s. |
在80中期,混迹于城市的日子还算不错 |
inner city:n.(居民拥挤,住屋破旧的)市中心平民区;adj.市中心的;
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In the early '80s, some would say. |
或80早期 |
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up -- you got a lot of prestige , a lot of respect. |
你有很大的权利,你随便打人-- 你享受着不一般的特权和众人的敬畏。 |
prestige:n.威望,声望;声誉;
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But there was no money in it, OK? |
但是,你没有钱。 |
The gang had no way to make money. |
黑帮们没有赚钱渠道。 |
And they couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang, because the people in the gang didn't have any money. |
他们也不能像成员要会费, 因为这些帮内成员也穷的叮当响。 |
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana . |
卖大麻也赚不了几个钱。 |
marijuana:n.大麻;大麻毒品;
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Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out. |
大麻实在是太便宜了。 |
You can't get rich selling marijuana. |
卖大麻不能赚大钱。 |
You couldn't sell cocaine. |
你也不能卖可卡因。 |
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine -- but you've got to know rich white people. |
可卡因是个伟大的东西--可卡因粉末-- 但前提是你得认识那些有钞票的白人。 |
powdered:adj.变成粉末的;涂粉的;v.使成粉末(powder的过去分词);撒粉;搽粉;
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And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people -- they couldn't sell to that market. |
而大部分黑帮成员根本不会认识有钞票的白人。 他们没有市场。 |
You couldn't really do petty crime, either. |
你也不能整天实施那些无关痛痒的小犯罪。 |
petty:adj.琐碎的;小气的;小规模的;
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It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living . |
实际上靠实施小犯罪谋生是非常糟糕的。 |
make a living:谋生,维持生活;
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So, as a result , as a gang leader, you had, you know, power. |
所以结果就是, 作为一个黑帮,你确实有权利。 |
as a result:结果;
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It's a pretty good life. |
生活确实不错。 |
But the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother. |
但问题是,你不得不和你妈住在一块。 |
And so it wasn't really a career . |
所以这根本算不上“事业“。 |
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历;
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It was something that -- it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be if you had to live at home with your mother. |
这完全算不上。 你不可能拥有无限的权利的地位, 如果你不得不整天跟你妈呆在一起。 |
Then along comes crack cocaine. |
然后,快克出现了。 |
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city. |
用Malcolm Gladwell的话说,这东西 就是城市的一盘大菜。 |
sauce:n.酱;调味汁;讨厌的话(或举动);v.给…加滋味;(俚)对…说冒昧话;
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation . |
因为片状可卡因是一个令人难以置信的创造。 |
unbelievable:adj.(非正式)难以置信的;不可信的 innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
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I don't have time to talk about it today. |
我今天没空说这个了。 |
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years, of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country, the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine. |
如果你去想一想,我会说在过去二十五年, 这个国家的所有发明创新中, 对城市人们生活状态影响最大的, 就是快克。 |
occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式) impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; well-being:n.幸福;康乐;
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And for the worse -- not for the better , but for the worse. |
更糟的是--注意不是更好,是更糟, |
for the worse:恶化;向坏的方面转化; for the better:好转,向好的方向发展;
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It had a huge impact on life. |
它对生活的影响巨大。 |
So what was it about crack cocaine? |
那么快克到底是什么? |
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high. |
它可以轻易让大脑兴奋。 |
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine -- and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high than is snorting it. |
因为你可以像吸烟一样吸入快克--粉末状可卡因是不能用嘴吸的-- 相比于用鼻子吸入来说, 用嘴吸入可以更快地带来高潮。 |
efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的; mechanism:n.机制;原理,途径;进程;机械装置;技巧; snorting:v.喷鼻息,哼;用鼻子吸(毒品);(snort的现在分词)
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And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine, but, when it came, it really did. |
事实上,曾有一个观众开始并不会知道自己想要用嘴吸入可卡因, 但当高潮来时他就知道了。 |
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for-- buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars. |
这是一种堪称完美的毒品。你可以 用一块钱的可卡因原料制作它,然后以5块钱出手 |
Highly addictive -- the high was very short. |
这东西非常容易上瘾--而且快感非常短暂。 |
Highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; addictive:adj.使人上瘾的;使人入迷的;
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So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high. |
只能持续十五分钟。 |
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again. |
然后当你回复平静,你只想要再爽一次。 |
It created a wonderful market. |
它创造了完美的市场。 |
And for the people who were there running the gang, it was a great way, seemingly , to make a lot of money. |
对那些营运着黑帮的人来说, 这看起来是一个赚钱良机。 |
seemingly:adv.看来似乎;表面上看来;
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At least for the people in the top. |
至少对于顶层的人来讲。 |
So this is where we enter the picture. |
所以我们从这里开始深入。 |
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this. |
当然不是我--我只是个跑龙套的。 |
bit player:n.小角色;小演员;无足轻重的人(或组织);
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My co-author , Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character. |
和我一起写书的Sudhir Venhatesh,才是真正的主角。 |
co-author:n.合著者;vt.合著;
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So he was a math major in college who had a good heart, and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D. |
他大学主修数学,非常善良, 他决定要获得社会学的博士学位。 |
sociology:n.社会学;群体生态学;
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Came to the University of Chicago. |
然后他来了芝加哥大学。 |
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent following the Grateful Dead. |
在来芝加哥之前的三个月里, 他一直在追Grateful Dead(一支美国电子摇滚乐队)。 |
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak ." |
用他自己的话说,他“看起来就像个怪物。“ |
freak:n.怪人,怪事;畸形人;反复无常;adj.奇异的,反常的;
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He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian. |
他是南亚人--肤色很深。 |
dark-skinned:深肤色的;
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Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass." |
块头很大,体毛旺盛--用他的话说--“蔓延到屁股。“ |
Defied all kinds of boundaries : Was he black or white? Was he man or woman? |
他挑战着所有边界:黑种人还是白种人?男人还是女人? |
Defied:adj.受蔑视的;遭违抗的;v.违抗(defy的过去式); boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数)
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He was really a curious sight to be seen. |
他确实是一个奇特的事物。 |
curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的;
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So he showed up at the University of Chicago. |
所以他出现在芝加哥大学。 |
And the famous sociologist , William Julius Wilson, was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago. |
著名的社会学家,William Julius Wilson, 正在做一个针对所有芝加哥人的调查。 |
sociologist:n.社会学家; involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) surveying:n.(土地)测量;考察;
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And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him, and decided he knew exactly the place to send him -- which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects. |
他看了Sudhir一眼,当时Sudhir正想替他做些调查, 然后他就完全明白了他应该送Sudhir去哪里-- 最贫困、最臭名昭著的住宅区。 |
surveys:n.调查(survey的复数); notorious:adj.声名狼藉的,臭名昭著的;
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And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States. |
而且不仅限于在芝加哥,而是整个美国。 |
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
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So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city -- dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project . |
所以Sudhir--这个来自郊区的、从没有深入城市过的年轻男孩-- 非常负责地带上他的题板,开始了他的调查。 |
suburban:adj.郊区的,城郊的;土气的;见闻不广的;n.郊区居民; dutifully:adv.忠实地;忠贞地; clipboard:n.剪贴板;附有纸夹的笔记板; housing project:n.公房项目;公房区(常由政府为贫困家庭营造);
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Gets to the first building. |
到了第一幢楼。 |
The first building? Well, there's nobody there. |
第一幢楼?好像没有人。 |
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell , so he climbs up the stairwell. |
但他听到楼上有响动,所以他走上楼梯。 |
stairwell:n.楼梯井;
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And he comes around the corner -- finds a group of young African-American men playing dice . |
他转过楼梯角-- 发现一群非裔小年轻在玩骰子。 |
African-American:非洲裔美国人(指美国黑人); dice:n.骰子;色子;掷骰游戏;掷骰赌博;v.将(肉、菜等)切成小方块;将…切成丁;
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This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic. |
那大概是1990年--快克流行的巅峰时期。 |
peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的;
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This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised. |
深入一个黑帮显然是非常危险的工作。 |
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner. |
黑帮显然很不待见突然从转角出现的外人。 |
And the mantra was: shoot first, ask questions later. |
箴言是:先开枪,再问话。 |
mantra:n.咒语(尤指四吠陀经典内作为咒文或祷告唱念的);颂歌;
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Now, Sudhir was lucky. |
Sudhir够走运。 |
He was such a freak -- and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard. |
他这么一个怪胎-- 也可能是他的题板救了他一命,因为那些人大概觉得 其他黑帮的人不会带着题板来射杀他们。 |
rival:v.与…相匹敌;比得上;adj.竞争的;n.竞争对手;
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say, well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey. |
所以他得到的不冷不热的问候是这样的: 那么好吧--说说你的问题。 |
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
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So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was, "How do you feel about being poor and black in America?" |
好吧我没有跟你们开玩笑,问卷的第一个问题是: “作为一个生活在美国的贫困的黑人,你感受如何?“ |
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
Makes you wonder about academics , OK? |
你们现在对学术研究肯定很好奇吧? |
academics:n.学术水平;学术知识;专业学者;
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad, and very bad. |
列出的选项有:非常好,好,糟糕,非常糟糕。 |
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following -- |
Sudhir后来发现,真正的答案是: |
(Laughter) |
去你妈的 |
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook . |
最终使他摆脱困境的,并非这个调查。 |
off the hook:摆脱困境;脱身;
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He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell. |
他被绑在楼梯间里一个晚上。 |
hostage:n.人质;抵押品; overnight:adj.夜间的; v.在夜间; n.(美)前一天的晚上;
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There was a lot of gunfire -- there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members. |
发生了很多枪击-- 他和那群黑帮也进行了很多对话。 |
gunfire:n.炮火;炮火声; philosophical:adj.哲学的(等于philosophic);冷静的;
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By morning, the gang leader arrived. |
早上的时候,头头来了。 |
Checked out Sudhir -- decided he was no threat, and they let him go home. |
他们对Sudhir搜身-- 确定他不具有任何威胁,于是他们就让他走了。 |
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap . |
Sudhir回到家,洗澡,睡觉。 |
nap:n.打盹;短绒毛;赛马情报;v.打盹;(naps是nap的复数)
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And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think, well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead. |
如果是你或者我,遇到这种情况,可能会想, 我该写写那篇关于The Greatful Dead的论文。 |
dissertation:n.论文,专题;学术演讲;
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I've been following them for the last three months. |
我已经研究他们三个多月了。 |
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
Sudhir, on the other hand , got right back -- walked down to the housing project. |
但是Sudhir,他回去了---他走回了那幢房子。 |
on the other hand:另一方面;
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Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys. |
上楼,第二层,说:“嗨哥们儿, |
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night, |
昨天晚上我跟你们玩的真开心, |
I wonder if I could do it again tonight." |
我想知道今晚能不能再玩一次。“ |
I wonder if:我不知道是否…?;
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And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for ten years: |
那段美丽关系就这样开始了。 Sudhir在那幢房子里断断续续住了十年: |
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members, having the car-windows shot out of his car, having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks -- you name it. |
他在那毒窟里与那些黑帮成员一起混,还一起进监狱, 遇到过汽车窗玻璃被砸, 也遇到过警察破门而入偷走他的光盘-- 可想而知。 |
jail:n.监狱;监牢;拘留所;v.监禁;下狱;
|
But ultimately , the story has a happy ending for Sudhir, who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country. |
不过最终这个故事还是有了个不错的结局。 Sudhir成为了这个国家最受尊重的社会学家。 |
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; sociologists:n.社会学家;
|
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open, waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data -- |
对我而言,当我坐在办公室里打开Excel工作表, 等着Sudhir来给我传最新数据-- |
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; Excel:v.超过;擅长; spreadsheet:n.电子制表软件;电子数据表;试算表;
|
- that he would get from the gang. |
-他从黑帮那里搞来的数据。 |
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever -- |
这真是历史上最不公平的合作关系之一-- |
unequal:adj.不平等的;不规则的;不胜任的;n.不等同的事物; co-authoring:合著(co-author的现在分词);
|
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it. |
-不过作为受益者我还是很高兴的。 |
beneficiary:n.[金融]受益人,受惠者;封臣;adj.拥有封地的;受圣俸的;
|
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing. |
我们发现了什么?关于黑帮?我只说一件事。 |
We really got access to everybody in the gang. |
我们确实有这个团伙里每一个人的资料。 |
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top. |
我们进行了深入的研究,从底层一直到顶层。 |
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever -- or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs, to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me: their books, their financial records that they kept. |
他们信任Sudhir--从来没有一个搞学术研究的-- 或者说从来没有任何人,任何外人--能赢得这群黑帮如此的信任, 以至于他们展示了我最好奇的东西: 他们的帐本。 |
outsider:n.外人;无取胜希望者;
|
And they made them available to us. |
他们给我们看了这些账本。 |
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them. |
我们不仅可以研究这些账本,甚至能问他们问题。 |
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have what sort of the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is, is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's. |
如果说要简短地概括一下我的所得, 我对黑帮的最基本理解是, 如果要把黑帮和其他组织做一比较的话, 在很多方面, |
summarize:v.总结;概述;概括;归纳; short time:adj.短暂的;快速的(shorttime的变形); the bottom line:底线;本质内容;最底线; parallel:adj.平行的; v.与…相似; n.极其相似的人(或情况、事件等); organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
|
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's. |
黑帮就像麦当劳。 |
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way, but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized . |
第一个方面,也是最有趣的一个, 是它被组织起来的方式。 |
in the way:妨碍;挡道; organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式)
|
The hierarchy of the gang; the way it looks. |
整个帮派的阶层结构。 |
hierarchy:n.层级;等级制度;
|
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like. |
这个是它的结构图。 |
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts, but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart, this is exactly what the org chart would look like. |
不知掉你们中有没有人很熟悉机构图。 但是如果让你画一个简化的麦当劳组织图, 就是这样的。 |
assign:v.指定;指派;转让;分派;n.[法]受让人; stripped-down:无装饰的;简装的; simplified:v.简化; (simplify的过去式)
|
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang, they actually call themselves the "board of directors." |
令人称奇的是,在这个黑帮的最高级, 事实上他们自称为“董事会”。 |
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view of like, what happened in American corporate life. |
Sudhir说这些人其实对美国商业公司的运作 并无深入细致的了解。 |
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的; corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的;
|
But they had seen movies like Wall Street , and they kind of had learned a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world. |
但是他们都看过“华尔街”此类的电影,于是他们也多少 了解了真实世界里公司的运作方式。 |
Wall Street:n.华尔街(美国纽约金融中心和证券交易所所在地);
|
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VP's -- people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago. |
在董事会之下,你看到的是地区副总裁-- 负责芝加哥南部,或者西部的人。 |
essentially:adv.本质上;本来; regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的;
|
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment of trying to take the Iowa franchise . |
Sudhir和其中一个挺不幸的家伙混的不错, 这个家伙本打算拿到艾和华区域的专营权。 |
assignment:n.分配:(分派的)工作,任务: franchise:n.特权;公民权;经销权;v.给…以特许(或特权);赋予公民权;
|
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors that they undertook . |
后来他发现,在这个黑帮里,这个决定实在不算明智, 他们在财政上牺牲了不少。 |
endeavors:尽力; undertook:v.承担(undertake的过去式);着手做;
|
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees . |
他们和麦当劳最大的相似之处就在于专营权。 |
franchisees:n.连锁加盟,特许经营人(franchisee复数);
|
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs -- the four-square-block by four-square-block areas -- they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's. |
那些负责各个小区域的分支-- 控制着方圆四个区-- 可以说他们就像经营着麦当劳餐厅的人。 |
They are the entrepreneurs . |
他们就是企业家。 |
entrepreneurs:n.企业家;(entrepreneur的复数)
|
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling. |
他们独享着售卖毒品的权利。 |
exclusive:adj.独有的;排外的;专一的;n.独家新闻;独家经营的项目;排外者;
|
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing. |
他们用各自所属帮派的名号进行毒品交易和营销。 |
merchandising:n.推销;销售规划;v.推销;经营;(merchandise的现在分词)
|
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit, depending on how good they are at running the business. |
他们经营的水平高低, 决定他们是利润的获得者或是亏损的承担者。 |
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; profit:n.利润;利益;v.获利;有益;
|
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom, the foot soldiers. |
现在,我认为你们最应该关注的是底部群体, 这些赤脚小兵。 |
These are the teenagers, typically , who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs. |
他们大多是青少年, 他们站在街角卖毒品。 |
typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; out on the street:无家可归;失业;
|
Extremely dangerous work. |
这个工作极度危险。 |
Extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
|
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people in this organization are at the bottom. |
特别注意这群人构成了黑帮的主体, 整个帮派的重量几乎全集中于底部。 |
OK, just like McDonald's. |
这就像麦当劳。 |
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people who are taking your order at McDonald's. |
这些赤脚小兵, 正如在麦当劳为你点餐的服务员。 |
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them. |
这并非巧合。 |
by chance:偶然;意外地;
|
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people. |
实际上在邻近区里,这是同一群人。 |
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually -- at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time at a place like McDonald's. |
这些在黑帮里的孩子们, 同时也在麦当劳里 打零工。 |
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about, about what a crappy job it was being in the gang. |
这一事实已预兆了某种结果,我正要讲到的, 关于在黑帮工作是多么糟糕的一份工作。 |
foreshadows:vt.预示;成为…的前兆;n.预兆; crappy:adj.蹩脚的;糟糕的;没价值的;
|
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job, why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's? |
很显然,如果这是个完美的、能赚钱的工作, 为什么这些孩子还需要在麦当劳辛苦工作? |
lucrative:adj.有利可图的,赚钱的;合算的;
|
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised. |
这个工作的工资到底有多少?你也许会惊讶。 |
wages:n.[劳经]工资; v.开展(运动等)(wage的第三人称单数形式);
|
But based on the actual -- you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records, this is what it looks like in terms of the wages. |
事实上-- 根据我与他们的谈话,和我所看到的财政纪录, 他们的薪水就是这点。 |
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was 3.50 in an hour. |
这群赤脚小兵每小时赚3.5美金。 |
hourly:adv.每小时地;频繁地,随时;adj.每小时的,以钟点计算的;频繁的;
|
It was below the minimum wage , OK? And this is well-documented . |
低于最低工资标准。这个结论有证可循。 |
minimum wage:n.(法定的)最低工资; well-documented:adj.证据充分的;
|
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have. |
看他们的消费模式,很容易看出 |
consumption:n.消费;消耗;肺痨;
|
It really is not fiction -- it's fact. |
这个结论并非杜撰,这是事实。 |
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom. |
黑手党没有钱,尤其是底部群体, |
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader, the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee -- you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year. |
如果你发达了,比如成为了某个区域的头, 类似麦当劳的专营者-- 你可以一年进帐10万美金。 |
equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
|
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male. |
这是你所能期待的上限了。 作为一个在这些区域长大的年轻黑人, |
If you managed to rise to the very top, 200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make. |
如果你能够做到顶层, 你可以一年进帐20万~40万。 |
Truly, you would be a great success story . |
那倒确实算的上成功。 |
success story:n.获得巨大成功的人(或事物);
|
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities -- this is what they were striving for. |
但随之也衍生出一些副作用, 帮派中最聪明的那群人, 都在为这个目标奋斗。 |
ramifications:n.(众多复杂而又难以预料的)结果,后果;(ramification的复数) individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数) striving:n.努力;奋斗;v.努力;奋斗;力争;力求;(strive的现在分词)
|
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways, because there were no legitimate channels out. |
他们不会采取什么合法手段, 因为那里根本不存在什么合法渠道。 |
legitimate:adj.合法的;正当的;合理的;正统的;v.使合法;认为正当(等于legitimize);
|
This was the best way out. |
这是混的最好的一条道路。 |
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way. |
实际上这也是一条正确的路。 |
You look at this. |
看这个。 |
The relationship to McDonald's breaks down here. |
与麦当劳的相似之处到此为止了。 |
The money looks about the same. |
金钱上差不多。 |
Why is it such a bad job? |
为什么说这个工作很糟糕? |
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody shooting at you a lot of the time. |
原因就在于,总有人, 正在瞄准你准备扣动扳机。 |
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates? |
那么死亡率是多少? |
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly , this was not really sort of a standard situation. |
在我们的这个帮派中--当然我承认这种说法 并不确切。 |
admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地; standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的;
|
This was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars -- as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs. |
这是一段暴力频繁发生的时期,非常多的枪击-- 这个帮派发展的非常成功,但他们也付出了代价。 |
intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的; violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲;
|
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample was 7 percent per person per year. |
死亡率--更不用提被逮捕, 入狱,或者受伤的概率--我们样本中的死亡率, 是每人每年7%。 |
death rate:n.死亡率; not to mention:更不必说;不必提及; wounded:adj.受伤的; n.伤员; v.使受伤; (wound的过去分词和过去式)
|
You're in the gang for four years, you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood . |
你在这个黑手党里混四年,可以估计你有25%的可能死于非命。 |
likelihood:n.可能性,可能;
|
That is about as high as you can get. |
这个概率就是这么高。 |
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life where you may expect might be extremely risky. |
为了方便比较,我们来看看其他的谋生选择, 也许是极度危险的某种方式。 |
walk of life:n.行业;阶层;社会地位;
|
Like let's say that you were a murderer and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row . |
比如你是个谋杀犯, 你被判谋杀罪,成为死囚。 |
convicted:v.定罪;宣判…有罪;(convict的过去式和过去分词) death row:n.死囚牢房;死囚区;
|
It turns out, the death rates on death row -- from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year. |
而事实上,死囚的死亡率, 包括了执行死刑等各种情况,仅仅是每年2%。 |
execution:n.执行,实行;完成;死刑;
|
(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street. |
所以死囚也比在街上卖毒品要安全得多。 |
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime. |
那些相信死刑对犯罪防范有巨大作用的人, 听到这里应该重新思考了。 |
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的; deterrent:adj.遏制的,威慑的;制止的;n.威慑;妨碍物;挽留的事物;
|
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack -- and I'm not really focusing on the negatives , but really, there's another story to tell you there -- if you look at the death rates -- |
现在让你们大略了解一下,充斥着毒品交易的城市中心地带有多糟糕-- 我并不是在强调负面的东西, 但我要给你们看看这个-- 如果你看看这个死亡率-- |
negatives:n.[摄]底片; v.否定;
|
just of random , young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States -- the death rates during crack were about one percent. |
那些在美国城市中心成长的年轻黑人男性, 在毒品交易中,死亡率大概是1% |
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地;
|
That's extremely high. |
这相当高。 |
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense. |
而且这全是暴力导致的死亡--令人难以置信。 |
violent:adj.暴力的;猛烈的;
|
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq, for instance , right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent. |
为让大家有更直观的认识,如果把这个与伊拉克的驻兵相比, 比如现在战争中的死亡率是0.5%, |
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较; instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例;
|
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war. |
所以那些在城市中心长大的年轻黑人男性, 感觉上就像生活在战区 与在伊拉克打仗的士兵差不多了。 |
literal:adj.文字的;逐字的;无夸张的;
|
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner selling drugs for 3.50 an hour, with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years? |
你可能要问,为什么会有人愿意 站在街角,为了一小时赚3块5而贩卖毒品, 同时冒着在未来四年内25%的死亡概率? |
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers. |
为什么他们要这样做?我认为有几个原因。 |
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history. |
第一个原因,他们被历史愚弄了。 |
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage . |
确实黑帮曾经风光一时。 |
rite of passage:n.(标志人生重要阶段的)通过仪式;
|
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older, you dropped out of the gang. |
年轻人掌控黑帮, 老人离开黑帮。 |
So what happened was, the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time -- the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid to late '80s -- became very, very wealthy. |
实际上, 那些遇到了好时机的人, 恰好在80年代末领导了黑帮, 积累了大量的财富。 |
at the right time:在适当时候;
|
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation -- so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has, and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth ." |
所以逻辑上大家都认为: 下一代的新带头人 , 在老一辈离开帮派时 会继承权利和财富。 |
logical:adj.合逻辑的,合理的;逻辑学的; take over:接管;继承;接收;接任;接替; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
|
So there are striking similarities , I think, to the Internet boom , right? |
这与互联网热潮真是令人咂舌的相似,对吧? |
similarities:n.相仿性;类似性;相像处;(similarity的复数) boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的;
|
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich. |
硅谷的第一群开发者,捞到了巨大的财富。 |
Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地);
|
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too." |
然后我所有的朋友都说:“也许我也该去硅谷试试。” |
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came. |
他们愿意为了拿非常低的工资,只为了永远不会实现的股票持有权。 |
stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的; options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式)
|
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom. |
可以说,同样的事情 也发生在我们关注的群体身上,他们也愿意从最底层做起。 |
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm -- a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom, work eighty-hour weeks for not that much money, because they think they're going to make partner. |
就好比,一个律师事务所的小律师, 一个工作第一年的律师愿意从最底层做起, 为了不算太多的钱每周工作84个小时, 因为他们认为他们会成为合伙人。 |
wiling:vt.欺骗,诱骗;消遣;n.诡计,阴谋;
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But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner. |
但事实是,规则改变了,他们永远成不了合伙人。 |
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s are still running the major gangs in Chicago today. |
确实,在80年代末掌管各大黑帮的人, 今天仍然在运营着各大黑帮。 |
They never passed on any of the wealth. |
他们从未给出过一个子儿。 |
So everybody got stuck at that 3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster . |
所以每个人都被绑定在每小时3.5美金的工作上,这是一场灾难。 |
disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸;
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The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery . |
除此之外,黑帮也很擅长营销和权谋。 |
trickery:n.欺骗;诡计;奸计;
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And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is -- you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages , and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry. |
比如,他们会做这样一件事: 黑帮头头们常有一大群随行者, 他们会开着超炫的车,戴着超炫的珠宝。 |
entourages:n.随从;周围;环境; fancy:n.幻想; adj.想象的; v.想象;
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So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more, is that, really, they didn't own those cars. |
当Sudhir与他们多次同行后,他发现, 事实上他们根本没有车。 |
eventually:adv.最后,终于;
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They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars. |
他们只是租车,因为其实他们没钱买炫车。 |
leased:adj.[租赁]租用的; n.专线; v.租用(lease的过去式和过去分词); afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
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And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry. |
他们也没有真金珠宝,他们的首饰只是镀着金。 |
gold-plated:adj.镀金的;
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It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real. |
这个又要回溯到,真的真实和假的真实。 |
versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
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And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be. |
他们想尽各种办法哄骗年轻人 让他们相信加入黑帮是多么好的一笔交易。 |
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid -- they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold. |
例如,他们会告诉一个14岁的孩子, 他们会给他一整把美金。 |
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..." |
于是那个14岁的孩子说:“噢,好吧……” |
You know, he would say to his friends, "Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang." |
然后他会告诉他的朋友们, “看看我在黑帮里赚到的钱。” |
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while . |
这不是他的钱,直到他花光了那笔钱。然后就是, 他欠了黑帮的债,同时好像成了契约仆人。 |
in debt to:欠债;欠情;受恩惠; indentured:adj.受契约束缚的;v.以契约约束;签订契约(indenture的过去分词); for a while:adv.片刻;暂时;一会儿;一时;
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So I have a couple minutes. |
我还有几分钟。 |
Let me do one last thing |
让我做最后一件事。 |
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about what we learned, more generally , about economics from the study of the gang. |
我本来没想到我还会剩时间,来讲讲 研究黑帮的经济学到底让我们学到了什么。 |
generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
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So economists tend to talk in technical words. |
经济学家喜欢用术语。 |
technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
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Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data. |
通常我们的理论有数据支持就不会死得太惨。 |
miserably:adv.贫困地;可悲地;糟糕地;非常不幸地;
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But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not-so-well in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy -- in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism . |
但事实上,有意思的是 一些与实际经济活动中不那么吻合的 经济学理论,在毒品经济学中却吻合得很好, 部分原因是由于不受约束的资本主义。 |
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; unfettered:adj.无拘无束的; v.使自由(unfetter的过去分词); capitalism:n.资本主义;
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Here's an economic principle . |
这是一条经济学定理。 |
principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉;
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This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a " compensating differential ." |
这是一条劳动经济学里的定理,称为“补偿性工资定理”。 |
compensating:n.补偿;修正;抵销;adj.补偿的;平衡的;v.补偿(compensate的ing形式); differential:adj.微分的;差别的;特异的;n.微分;差别;
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It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks -- one which is more unpleasant than the other -- that's what you call a compensating differential. |
这条定理大意是说,工人所要求增长的工资 需让他在两件事间没有区别-- 若其中一件比另一件更让人不爽, 这之间的差别就称为补偿差。 |
increment:n.[数]增量;增加;增额;盈余; indifferent:adj.漠不关心的;无关紧要的;中性的,中立的; performing:adj.表演的;演奏的;v.做;执行;演出;运转(perform的现在分词) unpleasant:adj.令人不快的;不舒服的;不客气的
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It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK? |
这就是为什么我们认为很可能拾荒者的收入要高于公园的工作人员。 |
garbage:n.垃圾;废物;
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So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear. |
黑帮内一个成员所说的可以更好地阐明这一点。 |
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself. |
我好像讲得太超前了。 |
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on, that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money. |
我是说,在黑帮混战时, 他们支付那些小兵两倍的报酬。 |
It's exactly this concept. |
就是这样的概念。 |
Because they're not willing to be at risk. |
因为他们都不愿意冒险。 |
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely . |
某个成员的话漂亮地概括了这层含义。 |
capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 nicely:adv.细致地;有吸引力;令人满意;令人愉快;adj.强健的;
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He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting -- "if all this shit's going on? No, right? |
他说,“当这一切狗屎”--他指的是所有枪击-- “都在发生的时候,你会只是站在那里吗?不会,对吗?” |
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line , then front me the cash, man." |
所以如果我被要求把性命交出去时,你必须给我钱。” |
on the line:处于危险中;模棱两可;在电话线上;
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So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately than does the economist, about what's going on. |
所以我认为,那个黑帮分子对于这一切的描述, 比经济学家更确切。 |
articulately:发音清晰地;善于表达地;
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
Here's another one. |
再说一件事。 |
So economists talk about game theory -- that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium . |
经济学家讨论博弈论, 说每个双人游戏都存在一个纳什均衡。 |
game theory:n.博弈论;对策论; equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力;
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Here's the translation you get from the gang member. |
这是黑帮分子对这个理论的转述。 |
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot-- one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang, if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory -- all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there. |
他们在谈论他们为什么不扣动扳机。 黑帮中一个重要的商业战术是, 如果你在另外一个党派的领地发个空枪, 所有人都会不敢再去那里买毒品。 |
tactic:n.策略,战略;adj.按顺序的,依次排列的; territory:n.领土,领域;范围;地域;版图;
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They're going to come into your neighborhood . |
他们会转去你的领区。 |
neighborhood:n.附近;地区;街坊;adj.附近的;
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But here's what he says about why they don't do that. |
但他接着给出他们不会这样做的理由。 |
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody, and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf . |
他说,“如果我们在别帮的领地开枪了, 你仔细想想,没有人会再踏上那片土地一步。 |
turf:n.草皮;泥炭;跑马场;v.覆草皮于;
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But we gotta be careful, because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked ." |
但我们必须小心翼翼, 因为他们也会在我们的领地上开枪,然后我们都完蛋了。” |
fucked:v.与…性交;(表示气愤)他妈的;(fuck的过去分词和过去式)
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(Laughter) |
(笑声) |
So that's exactly the same concept. |
这概念是完全一致的。 |
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong. |
但有时候经济学家会弄错。 |
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ... |
我们观察数据, |
observed:adj.观察的;观测的;v.观察;遵守;注意到(observe的过去分词形式);
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The gang leader always got paid, OK? |
黑帮头目总是能拿到报酬,对吧? |
No matter how bad it was economically , he always got himself paid. |
无论经济状况多么惨淡,他总是能支付他自己的工资。 |
economically:adv.经济地;在经济上;节俭地;
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So we had some theories related to cash flow , and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that. |
所以我们关于现金流又得出了些理论, 缺乏对资产市场的渠道,诸如此类。 |
cash flow:现金流转;
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But then we asked the gang member, "Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?" |
然后我们问那些党内成员, “为什么你总有钱拿,而你的手下却从来拿不到报酬?” |
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig? |
他回答,“那些土人都想要抢你的位子,你明白吗?” |
response:n.响应;反应;回答; niggers:n.(美)(锯木厂中的)推木机; v.(美)耗尽(地力); (nigger的复数)
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If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit." |
如果你没钱,他们会认为你是没种的狗屎。” |
And I thought about it, and I said, "CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses, even when companies are losing a lot of money. |
我想了想说, “CEO们通常给自己上百万美金的年终奖, 即使公司面临亏损。 |
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit' could really be important." |
经济学家们永远不会想到“没种的狗屎”理论, 会这么重要。” |
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" -- maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis . |
但也可能, 可能这个“没种的狗屎”会是一个有待进一步分析的重要假说。 |
hypothesis:n.假设; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定;
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Thank you very much. |
谢谢。 |