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SorayaFieldFiorio_SimonEhrlichBet_2021E-_臭名昭著的人口过剩赌约：西蒙_vs_埃利希_
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| In 1980, two American professors bet $1,000 on a question with stakes that couldn’t be higher: would the earth run out of resources to sustain a growing human population? |
1980 年,两位美国教授 将一千美金押在 一个赌注极高的问题上: 地球的资源是否会耗尽, 不足以供养持续成长的人口呢？ |
| One of them was Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, who wrote the bestselling 1968 book, “The Population Bomb.” |
其中一人是史丹佛的 生物学家保罗艾尔利克, 他是 1968 年畅销书 《人口爆炸》的作者。 |
| The global population had grown rapidly since World War II, and Ehrlich predicted that millions would starve to death as the population increased faster than the food supply. |
从二次大战之后 全球人口就快速成长, 艾尔利克预测,数百万人将会饿死, 因为人口成长速度 会超越食物供应成长的速度。 |
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bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿; stakes:n.桩; v.以…打赌,拿…冒险; run out of:用完; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); sustain:v.支持;支撑;遭受;证实; biologist:n.生物学家; bestselling:adj.畅销的; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式)
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| He drew from the ideas of 18th century economist Thomas Malthus and related work from the 20th century. |
他参考了十八世纪经济学家 托马斯马尔萨斯的想法, 以及二十世纪的相关研究。 |
| Malthus had posited that population growth, if unchecked over time, would always outpace food supply. |
马尔萨斯认为, 人口成长若长期未受控制, 必定会超越食物供应的速度。 |
| Through the 1970s, it seemed like Ehrlich was right: famines , pollution, and political unrest had many concerned that humanity was on the brink of such a crisis , |
从 1970 年代来看, 艾尔利克似乎是对的, 饥荒、污染、政治动荡 导致许多人担心 人类即将面临这类危机, |
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posited:vt.安置;假定;n.假设;设想; unchecked:adj.未经核对的;未加抑制的; outpace:vt.赶过;超过…速度; famines:n.饥荒;饥饿,奇缺; unrest:n.不安;动荡的局面;不安的状态; concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词) humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; on the brink of:即将要;濒于;濒临;在…的边缘; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
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| and some governments considered and even implemented policies to limit population growth. |
有些政府在考虑,甚至也确实实施了 限制人口成长的政策。 |
| Betting against Ehrlich was Julian Simon, a professor of business and economics. |
和艾尔利克对赌的是朱利安西蒙,他是商学与经济学的教授。 |
| He analyzed historic data from around the world, and found no correlation between a growing population and a decrease in standards of living— in fact, he found the opposite. |
他分析了世界各地的历史资料, 发现人口成长与生活水准下降 之间并没有关联── 事实上,他发现情况正好相反。 |
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implemented:v.使生效;贯彻;执行;实施;(implement的过去式和过去分词) policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) Betting:n.打赌;赌钱;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;(bet的现在分词) analyzed:v.分析(analyze的过去式和过去分词);检讨; historic:adj.有历史意义的;历史上著名的; correlation:n.[数]相关,关联;相互关系; decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置; standards:n.标准,水平,规格(standard的复数)
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| He argued that Ehrlich’s work, and that of Malthus before him, was based on theoretical calculations, while the real-world data told a different story. |
他主张,艾尔利克 以及更早前马尔萨斯的研究 是以理论计算为根据, 但真实世界的资料呈现出不同的现象。 |
| But then, he departed from the data himself, claiming human ingenuity would always find alternatives to compensate for diminishing resources. |
但接着,他自己也偏离了资料, 主张人类的才智一定会找到替代方案, 来弥补越来越少的资源。 |
| If that seems overly optimistic to you, well, you're not alone. |
如果你觉得他太过乐观, 不是只有你会这么想。 |
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theoretical:adj.理论的;理论上的;假设的;推理的; real-world:adj.现实生活的;工作的; departed:adj.过去的;死去的;以往的;n.死者;v.离去;去世(depart的过去分词); claiming:v.声称;要求给予;理应获得;(claim的现在分词) ingenuity:n.心灵手巧,独创性;精巧;精巧的装置; alternatives:n.可供选择的事物;(alternative的复数) compensate:v.补偿,赔偿;抵消; diminishing:v.减少; adj.逐渐缩小的; overly:adv.过度地;极度地; optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的;
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| Ehrlich and other experts found Simon’s claims preposterous . |
艾尔利克和其他专家认为 西蒙的主张十分荒谬。 |
| In June 1980, Simon wrote a scathing article for Science Magazine that incited a heated debate of published articles between the two men. |
1980 年 8 月,西蒙在《科学》期刊上写了 一篇尖刻的文章, 导致这两人发表文章, 进行激烈的辩论。 |
| Simon said he should have placed a wager against Ehrlich years before, when Ehrlich ventured that, “England would not exist in the year 2000.” |
西蒙说他几年前就应该 和艾尔利克打赌, 那时艾尔利克曾大胆提出 「到了 2000 年, 英格兰将不复存在」。 |
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claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数) preposterous:adj.荒谬的;可笑的; scathing:adj.严厉的;严厉批评的;无情抨击的;v.损伤;损害;(scathe的现在分词) incited:vt.煽动;激励;刺激; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; wager:n.赌注;赌博;赌物;v.打赌;下赌注; ventured:v.敢于冒险;小心地说,谨慎地做;(venture的过去分词和过去式)
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| Later that year, Simon called Ehrlich a false prophet and challenged him to a bet. |
同年晚些时候, 西蒙说艾尔利克是假先知, 并向他提出打赌。 |
| Their feud also touched on the debate about whether to prioritize environmental protections or economic growth, a key issue in the American presidential race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. |
他们的长期争执中也曾辩论 环境保护和经济成长之间, 应优先考量何者, 这是卡特和雷根的 美国总统选战当中的关键议题。 |
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prophet:n.先知;预言者;提倡者; feud:n.不和;争执;封地;v.长期不和;长期争斗; prioritize:v.按重要性排列;划分优先顺序;优先处理; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行; presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的;
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| After some debate, they set the final terms: |
一番争辩之后, 他们订下了最终版的条件: |
| $200 on the price of each of five metals. |
用两百美金分别对 五种金属的价格下注。 |
| If the price of the metal decreased or held steady over the next decade, |
如果金属的价格 在接下来的十年中下跌或持平, |
| Simon won. |
就是西蒙赢。 |
| If the price increased, Ehrlich won. |
如果价格上涨,则艾尔利克赢。 |
| Wait, what? |
等等,什么？ |
| Weren’t we talking about overpopulation and famine? |
我们不是在谈人口过剩和饥荒吗？[02:46] |
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decreased:v.减少,减小,降低;(decrease的过去分词和过去式) steady:adj.稳定的; v.使稳定; v.稳定地; n.关系固定的情侣; overpopulation:n.人口过剩;
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| What could the price of metals possibly have to do with that? |
那和金属价格有什么关系啊？ |
| Well, the reality is that the price of metals may not have been the best choice— many factors impact these prices that have nothing to do with overpopulation. |
嗯,现实而言,金属价格可能不是最好的选择—— 这些价格会受到许多 人口过剩以外的因素影响。 |
| But their reasoning was as follows: metals are finite natural resources used in all sorts of manufacturing . |
但他们的理由如下:金属是有限的天然资源, 用于各种制造过程。 |
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have to do with:与…有关; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; have nothing to do with:与…无关; finite:adj.有限的;限定的;n.有限之物; manufacturing:n.制造业;工业;v.制造;生产(manufacture的现在分词);
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| Ehrlich believed a growing population would consume such finite resources, and scarcity would drive the prices up. |
艾尔利克相信,人口成长 会消耗这类有限资源, 资源变稀少,价格就会上升。 |
| Simon thought humanity would find substitutes for the metals, and the prices would stay stable or even decrease. |
西蒙认为人类会找到金属的替代品, 因此价格不会改变,甚至会下跌。 |
| So, what happened? |
结果如何？ |
| The world population continued to increase over the next 10 years, but the price of all five metals decreased, making Simon the clear winner of a bet that may not have been a great proxy for the question they were debating , anyway. |
在接下来的十年间, 世界人口持续成长, 但这五种金属的价格通通都下跌了, 很明显,西蒙赢了赌注, 不过这赌注不见得能够 确实反映他们辩论的问题。 |
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consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁; scarcity:n.不足;缺乏; substitutes:n.替代品; v.用…代替; stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; proxy:n.代理人;委托书;代用品; debating:v.讨论,辩论;仔细考虑;思考;盘算;(debate的现在分词)
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| As for the question itself, today, their focus on overpopulation represent a snapshot of history. |
至于这个问题本身, 现今,他们对人口过剩的关注 代表了历史的一段缩影。 |
| Our understanding of what causes starvation and famine has progressed: we have the resources to support a growing human population, but we’re currently failing to distribute those resources equitably , and changing that should be our priority . |
我们对于饥荒成因的了解 已经有所进步: 我们有资源可以养活不断增加的人口, 但目前我们没有公平分配资源, 而改善这一点是当务之急。 |
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represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送; snapshot:n.快照,快相;急射,速射;简单印象;vt.给…拍快照;vi.拍快照; starvation:n.饿死;挨饿;绝食; currently:adv.当前;一般地; distribute:v.分发;分配;分销;分散; equitably:adv.公平地; priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事;
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| And we no longer see population size as a primary cause of environmental degradation and climate change, or limiting population growth as a viable solution to these problems. |
我们不再把人口规模视为 环境恶化和气候变迁的主因, 也不再把限制人口成长视为 解决这些问题的可行方法。 |
| Rather, experts largely agree that our focus should be on replacing unsustainable technologies and practices with sustainable ones, and that economic growth and environmental protections don’t have to be at odds . |
反而,专家们普遍认为, 我们的焦点应该放在 以永续的技术取代不永续的做法, 以及,经济成长和环境保护 其实是可以并存的。 |
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degradation:n.退化;降格,降级;堕落; viable:adj.可行的;能养活的;能生育的; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); odds:n.几率;胜算;不平等;差别;
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| In October 1990, Julian Simon received a check from Paul Ehrlich. |
1990 年 10 月, |
| There was no note. |
对方未附上任何留言。 |