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SirMartinRees_2014U-_我们能阻止世界末日吗_
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled "Our Final Century?" Question mark . 十年前,我写了一本书。 书名为《 我们的末世纪？》以问号结尾。
entitled:v.使享有权利;使符合资格;给…命名;(entitle的过去分词和过去式) Question mark:abbr.(=questionstop)疑问号;n.问号;
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter) 我的出版商去掉了问号。（笑声）
publishers:n.出版商,出版公司;出版社(publisher的复数);
The American publishers changed our title to "Our Final Hour." 美国出版商把我们的书名 改成了《我们的末日》。
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse . 美国人喜欢即刻的满足与逆反。
instant:n.瞬间; adj.立即的; conj.同"assoonas"; gratification:n.满意;喜悦;使人满意之事; reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And my theme was this: 我的主题是这样的,
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries, but this one is special — it's the first where one species , ours, has the planet's future in its hands. 我们的地球已经存在了四千五百多万个世纪。 但这个世纪是特殊的, 第一次有一个物种,也就是我们, 掌握了这个星球的命运。
species:n.[生物]物种;种类;
Over nearly all of Earth's history, threats have come from nature — disease , earthquakes, asteroids and so forth — but from now on , the worst dangers come from us. 地球过去的历史中, 威胁主要来源于自然—— 疾病、地震、小行星等等—— 但是从今往后,最大的威胁来源于我们自己。
disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; asteroids:n.[天]小行星(asteroid的复数); from now on:从今以后;从现在起;
And it's now not just the nuclear threat; in our interconnected world, network breakdowns can cascade globally; air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days; and social media can spread panic and rumor literally at the speed of light. 现今不止是核威胁, 在这个相互连接的世界里, 网路故障可以波及全球, 航空旅行可以在几天内将流行病传遍世界。 社会媒体简直能以光速 散播恐慌和谣言。
nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的; interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的;v.互相连接(interconnect的过去式); breakdowns:n.故障;受控制帧;节奏鼓点(breakdown的复数); cascade:n.小瀑布,瀑布状物;串联;vi.像瀑布般大量倾泻下来;vi.像瀑布般悬挂着; pandemics:大流行;流行病; worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; panic:adj.恐慌的;n.惊恐;恐慌;惶恐不安;v.惊慌失措; rumor:n.谣言;传闻;v.谣传;传说; literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
We fret too much about minor hazards — improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food, low radiation doses , and so forth — but we and our political masters are in denial about catastrophic scenarios . 我们太过苦恼于那些次要的危害, 像是发生概率极小的空难、食品中的致癌物、 低辐射等等。 但我们和政治领袖们 却否认那些灾难性的情节。
fret:v.使烦恼;焦急;使磨损;n.烦躁;焦急;磨损; minor:adj.未成年的; n.未成年人; vi.副修; hazards:n.危害;[安全]危险;障碍(hazard的复数);v.使冒危险;赌(hazard的三单形式); improbable:adj.不大可能的,未必确实的;不可信的; carcinogens:n.[肿瘤]致癌物(质)(carcinogen的复数); radiation:n.辐射;放射线;放射疗法; doses:v.服药(dose的三单形式);n.[药][核]剂量(dose的复数); denial:n.否认;否定;剥夺(应有的权利);拒不承认(令人不快、痛苦的事); catastrophic:adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的; scenarios:n.情节;脚本;情景介绍(scenario的复数);
The worst have thankfully not yet happened. 幸运的是最可怕的事情还没有发生,
thankfully:adv.感谢地;感激地;
Indeed, they probably won't. 的确,他们可能不会发生。
But if an event is potentially devastating , it's worth paying a substantial premium to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely , just as we take out fire insurance on our house. 但是如果有一件事具潜在的毁灭性, 那就值得我们付出大量的精力与金钱。 把它掐死在摇篮里,即使它不太可能发生。 这就像给我们的房子买火灾险。
potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词) substantial:adj.大量的;实质的;内容充实的;n.本质;重要材料; premium:n.额外费用;奖金;保险费;(商)溢价;adj.高价的;优质的; safeguard:n.[安全]保护;保卫;保护措施;vt.[安全]保护,护卫; unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的; insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的;
And as science offers greater power and promise, the downside gets scarier too. 科学提供了更强大的力量和保证, 随之而来的负面影响也变得更加可怕,
downside:n.下降趋势;底侧;adj.底侧的;
We get ever more vulnerable . 我们变得更加脆弱。
vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的;
Within a few decades, millions will have the capability to misuse rapidly advancing biotech , just as they misuse cybertech today. 数十年之内, 数百万人将会有能力 滥用飞速发展的生物技术, 就像他们今天滥用网路技术一样。
capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量; misuse:vt.滥用;误用;虐待;n.滥用;误用;虐待; biotech:abbr.生物技术;生物科技(biotechnology);
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk, foresaw that children will design and create new organisms just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets. 费里曼?戴森在TED演讲中 预言孩子们会设计并创造新的有机体, 就像他们那一代人摆弄化学装置一样平常。
Freeman:n.自由民;享有市民权的人;荣誉市民; foresaw:v.预见;预料(foresee的过去式); organisms:n.[生物]生物体(organism的复数);[生物]有机体; routinely:adv.例行公事地;老一套地;
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe , but were even part of his scenario to come about, our ecology and even our species would surely not survive long unscathed . 好吧,这大概已经到科幻小说的边缘了, 但是即使他情节中一小部份发生了, 我们的生态系统乃至整个人类种族 必定不会安然无恙地存活太久。
science fiction:科幻小说; fringe:n.边缘;穗;刘海;adj.边缘的;附加的;vt.加穗于; unscathed:adj.毫发无损的;未受伤害;未受伤
For instance , there are some eco-extremists who think that it would be better for the planet, for Gaia , if there were far fewer humans. 比如说,有一些生态极端主义者 认为如果能大大减少人口, 那会对这整个星球和大地母亲更好。
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例; Gaia:n.盖亚(希腊神话中的大地女神,等于Gaea);
What happens when such people have mastered synthetic biology techniques that will be widespread by 2050? 当这样的人掌握了 那些将在2050年普及的合成生物技术, 会发生什麽？
synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的;n.合成物; biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数) widespread:adj.普遍的,广泛的;分布广的;
And by then, other science fiction nightmares may transition to reality: dumb robots going rogue , or a network that develops a mind of its own threatens us all. 到那时,其他科幻小说中的噩梦 也可能变为现实。 成了流氓的愚蠢机器人 或者一套发展出自我意识的网路系统 威胁我们所有人。
nightmares:n.噩梦;梦魇;极其糟糕的情况;(nightmare的复数) transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡; dumb:adj.哑的,无说话能力的;不说话的,无声音的; rogue:n.流氓; v.游手好闲; adj.(野兽)凶猛的;
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation ? 那么,我们能不能通过条例来防范这样的风险？
regulation:n.规则;法规;控制;规章制度;adj.规定的;必须穿戴的;必须使用的;
We must surely try, but these enterprises are so competitive , so globalized , and so driven by commercial pressure, that anything that can be done will be done somewhere, whatever the regulations say. 无疑我们必将尝试, 以至于他们会不择手段, 不管法规条例说了些什麽。
competitive:adj.竞争的;比赛的;求胜心切的; globalized:vt.使全球化; commercial:adj.贸易的;商业的;赢利的;以获利为目的的;n.(电台或电视播放的)广告; regulations:n.章程;规则;法规;管理,控制;(regulation的复数)
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate , but can't. 这就像制毒法律——我们试图管制,但做不到。
regulate:v.调节;控制;
And the global village will have its village idiots , and they'll have a global range. 地球村里将会有些愚蠢的村民, 影响到整个地球。
global village:n.地球村(指整个世界作为一个由电子通信系统连接的单一集体); idiots:n.蠢人;笨蛋;白痴;(idiot的复数)
So as I said in my book, we'll have a bumpy ride through this century. 所以就像我在书中所说, 我们会在顛簸中走完这个世纪。
as I said:正如我所说的 bumpy:adj.颠簸的;崎岖不平的;
There may be setbacks to our society — indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback. 我们的社会可能会遭遇挫折—— 事实上,有 50% 的机率是极其严重的挫折。
setbacks:n.挫折;周折(setback复数); severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
But are there conceivable events that could be even worse, events that could snuff out all life? 但是,能否想像 更糟糕的事件, 那些可以毁灭所有生命的事件？
conceivable:adj.可能的;想得到的,可想像的; snuff:vt.剪烛花;掐灭;消灭;嗅出;n.鼻烟;烛花;灯花;vi.扑灭;断气;嗅;
When a new particle accelerator came online, some people anxiously asked, could it destroy the Earth or, even worse, rip apart the fabric of space? 当一台新的粒子加速器开始运行时, 有人焦急地问 它会毁灭地球吗？ 或者更糟,撕破时空的结构？
particle:n.颗粒;[物]质点;极小量;小品词; accelerator:n.油门;催化剂;[机]加速装置; anxiously:adv.不安地,忧虑地; rip:v.撕破;突然拉开;割开;n.撕开的大口子;巨澜;清管器;废马; fabric:n.织物;布料;(社会,机构等的)结构;
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered. 幸运的是对此我们可以放心,
reassurance:n.使安心,再保证;
I and others pointed out that nature has done the same experiments zillions of times already, via cosmic ray collisions . 我和其他一些人指出 大自然已经将同样的实验 通过宇宙射线的撞击 做了无数次。
zillions:n.庞大的数字;无法计算的大数字;adj.无限数的; via:prep.通过;经由;n.道路;[医]管道; cosmic:adj.宇宙的; collisions:n.[物]碰撞;冲突;撞击(collision的复数形式);
But scientists should surely be precautionary about experiments that generate conditions without precedent in the natural world. 但是对于那些在自然界中 没有先例的实验, 科学家们应该警钟长鸣,
precautionary:adj.预防的;留心的;预先警戒的; generate:v.产生;引起; precedent:n.先例;前例;adj.在前的;在先的;
Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating genetically modified pathogens . 生物学家应该预防
Biologists:n.生物学家(biologist的复数); release:v.释放;发射;让与;允许发表;n.释放;发布;让与; genetically modified:adj.(植物等)遗传修饰的; pathogens:n.[基医]病原体;病原菌;[基医]致病菌;
And by the way , our special aversion to the risk of truly existential disasters depends on a philosophical and ethical question, and it's this: 顺便说一句,我们对于 毁灭性灾难的风险尤其反感, 这是基于一个哲学伦理问题。 这个问题是这样的。
by the way:顺便说一下; aversion:n.厌恶;讨厌的人; existential:adj.存在主义的;有关存在的;存在判断的; disasters:n.灾难(disaster的复数); philosophical:adj.哲学的(等于philosophic);冷静的; ethical:adj.伦理的;道德的;凭处方出售的;n.处方药;
Consider two scenarios. 想像如下两个场景:
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity . 情景 A:90%的人类会消亡;
humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent. 情景 B:100%的人类会消亡。
How much worse is B than A? 情景 B 比情景 A 糟糕多少呢？
Some would say 10 percent worse. 有人会说糟糕 10%,
The body count is 10 percent higher. 因为死亡人数多 10%。
But I claim that B is incomparably worse. 但我坚持情景 B 是无比糟糕的。
claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得; incomparably:adv.无比地;无敌地;
As an astronomer , I can't believe that humans are the end of the story. 做为天文学家,我无法相信 人类是整个故事的结尾。
astronomer:n.天文学家;
It is five billion years before the sun flares up, and the universe may go on forever, so post-human evolution , here on Earth and far beyond, could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process that's led to us, and even more wonderful. 在太阳开始燃烧的五十亿年前,宇宙就诞生了, 而且可能会永远持续下去。 因此,在地球和及其遥远的地方, 就像产生了我们人类的式的达尔文式进化过程,
flares:n.喇叭裤; evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进; prolonged:adj.长期的;持久的;v.延长(prolong的过去分词和过去式); Darwinian:adj.达尔文的;达尔文学说的;n.进化论者; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster, on a technological timescale , not a natural selection timescale. 事实上,未来的进化会发生得更快, 会在一个技术时间尺度上, 而不是一个自然选择的时间尺度上。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; timescale:时间量程;时标; natural selection:n.自然选择;物竞天择;
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes , shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk that human extinction would foreclose this immense potential. 所以,考虑到这些重大的利害关系, 我们不应该接受哪怕十亿分之一的风险, 因人类灭绝而中止了 这巨大潜力的风险。
in view of:adv.鉴于;考虑到; immense:adj.巨大的,广大的;无边无际的;非常好的; stakes:n.桩; v.以…打赌,拿…冒险; extinction:n.绝种; foreclose:vt.阻止;排除;取消抵押品赎回权;vi.取消抵押品赎回权;
Some scenarios that have been envisaged may indeed be science fiction, but others may be disquietingly real. 有些设想中的情景 的确可能只会在科幻小说里出现, 但其他的一些可能会是令人不安的现实。
envisaged:v.设想(envisage的过去分词);面对,正视;
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar is not the same as the improbable, and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University are setting up a center to study how to mitigate these existential risks. 一句重要的格言这么说: 不熟悉不等于不可能。 事实上,这就是为什麽我们正在剑桥大学 创建一个中心来研究 如何缓解这些生存风险。
maxim:n.格言;准则;座右铭; unfamiliar:adj.不熟悉的;不常见的;没有经验的; Cambridge:n.剑桥(英国城市);坎布里奇(美国马萨诸塞州城市); mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻;vi.减轻,缓和下来;
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people to think about these potential disasters. 看来让一小部分人 思考这些潜在灾难是值得的。
worthwhile:adj.值得做的,值得花时间的;
And we need all the help we can get from others, because we are stewards of a precious pale blue dot in a vast cosmos , a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it. 我们需要可以从其他人那里得到的所有幫助。 因为我们是来自茫茫宇宙中 那颗珍贵暗蓝色圆石上的守护者,
stewards:n.干事; v.管理; precious:adj.宝贵的;珍贵的;矫揉造作的; cosmos:n.宇宙;和谐;秩序;大波斯菊;
And so let's not jeopardize that future. 所以请我们不要危及它的未来。
jeopardize:v.危害;使陷危地;使受危困;
And I'd like to finish with a quote from a great scientist called Peter Medawar. 我想用一段伟大科学家彼得?梅达沃的话 结束今天的演讲,这段话是这样的:
quote:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;n.引用;
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind are like the bells of Alpine cattle. 「为人类敲响的钟 就像阿尔卑斯山上牛的铃铛,
toll:n.伤亡人数; v.(缓慢而有规律地)敲(钟); (尤指)鸣(丧钟); mankind:n.人类;男性; Alpine:adj.阿尔卑斯山的,高山的;
They are attached to our own necks, and it must be our fault if they do not make a tuneful and melodious sound." 系在我们自己的脖子上。 如果它们没有发出和谐悠扬的乐声, 那一定是我们自己的错。」
attached:adj.依恋;v.重视;把…固定;(attach的过去分词和过去式) tuneful:adj.和谐的;音调优美的;悦耳的; melodious:adj.悦耳的;旋律优美的;
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
(Applause) （掌声）