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SeanGourley_2009U-_sean_gourley_战争中的数学_
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| We look around the media , as we see on the news from Iraq, |
看看我们的媒体,新闻中播放的那些关于伊拉 |
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media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
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| Afghanistan , Sierra Leone , and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us. |
阿富汗、塞拉立昂 以及那些我们难以理解的冲突战争 |
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Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲); Sierra:n.(尤指西班牙和美洲的)锯齿状山脉; Leone:n.利昂(塞拉利昂货币单位); conflict:n.冲突;矛盾;争执;抵触;v.抵触; incomprehensible:adj.费解的;不可思议的;无限的;
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| And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project. |
当我开始这个项目时,我同样很难理解为什么会这样 |
| But as a physicist , |
但作为一名物理学者 |
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physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者;
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| I thought, well if you give me some data, |
我想,如果给我一些数据的话 |
| I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go. |
我也许会理解。因此,我去尝试了一下 |
| So as a naive New Zealander |
那么作为一名新西兰人 |
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naive:adj.天真的,幼稚的;
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| I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon . |
我想,应该去五角大楼吧！ |
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Pentagon:n.五角形;
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| Can you get me some information? |
“能给我一些关于战争的数据吗？” |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| No. So I had to think a little harder. |
不行？！嗯……看来我要另想办法了 |
| And I was watching the news one night in Oxford. |
有天晚上,我在牛津大学看新闻的时候 |
| And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice. |
突然注意到电视荧幕下方 |
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chattering:n.[机]颤振,震颤;颤动;v.唠叨;震颤(chatter的现在分词);
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| And I saw that there was information there. |
有一些滚动的数据信息 |
| There was data within the streams of news that we consume . |
是关于当前所播新闻的数据信息 |
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consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁;
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| All this noise around us actually has information. |
其实所有围绕在在我们身边的声音都是含有信息的 |
| So what I started thinking was, perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here. |
于是我想 或许还有类似“开源”的情报信息 |
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source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; intelligence:n.智力;智慧;才智;(尤指关于敌国的)情报;
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| If we can get enough of these streams of information together we can perhaps start to understand the war. |
如果我们能够收集到足够的信息 就能够理解战争的原因了 |
| So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together, an interdisciplinary team of scientists, of economists, mathematicians . |
以上就是我要做的事情。我们于是开始组建团队 一支跨学科的研究队伍 包括了经济学家以及数学家 |
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interdisciplinary:adj.各学科间的; mathematicians:n.[数]数学家(mathematician的复数形式);
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| We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this. |
我们将这些人组织到一起,开始尝试解决这个问题 |
| We did it in three steps. |
我们将问题分成三步 |
| The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information -- from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news. |
第一步是收集信息。我们从130个不同的信息源 从非官方组织报道到新闻报纸、有线电视 |
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sources:n.来源;出处;起源;根源;原因;v.(从…)获得(source的第三人称单数和复数) cable:n.电缆; v.打电报; (用锚链,缆索等)系住;
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| We brought this raw data in and we filtered it. |
从中提取原始数据并加以过滤 |
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filtered:v.过滤;(用程序)筛选;缓行;(filter的过去分词和过去式)
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| We extracted the key bits on information to build the database. |
我们提取信息中的关键数据构建数据库 |
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extracted:adj.萃取的;引出的;v.提取(extract的过去式及过去分词);
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| That database contained the timing of attacks, the location , the size and the weapons used. |
该数据库包括 进攻时间 位置、规模以及武器使用情况 |
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location:n.地方;地点;位置;定位
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| It's all in the streams of information we consume daily, we just have to know how to pull it out. |
信息全部取自于我们身边的各类媒体报道 我们只是将它们提取并加以总结 |
| And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff . |
一旦我们收集好这些信息后,就可以做一些有趣的分析了 |
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stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
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| What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks? |
如果我们想看看攻击规模的分布的话 |
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What if:如果…怎么办? distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
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| What would that tell us? |
那么这个能告诉我们什么呢？ |
| So we started doing this. And you can see here on the horizontal axis you've got the number of people killed in an attack or the size of the attack. |
于是我们就开始了分析,看看大屏幕上这个图吧 在横轴上 显示的是攻击中的死亡人数 或者说是攻击的规模 |
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horizontal:n.水平线;水平面;横线;水平位置;adj.水平的;与地面平行的;横的; axis:n.轴;轴线;轴心国;
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| And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks. |
纵轴上显示的是攻击的频率 |
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vertical:n.垂直线;垂直位置;adj.竖的;垂直的;直立的;纵向的;
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| So we plot data for sample on this. |
我们将一些示例放到上面 |
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plot:n.情节;阴谋;布局;小块土地;v.密谋;暗中策划;(在地图上)标出;绘制(图表);
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| You see some sort of random distribution -- perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed, or 47 attacks where seven people were killed. |
看到的是近似于随机的分布 大概死亡人数为1人的攻击有67次 或死亡人数为7人的攻击有47次 |
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random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地;
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| We did this exact same thing for Iraq. |
我们对伊拉克的战争的数据做了类似的分析 |
| And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find. |
但我们不知道,在关于伊拉克战争的数据中我们会发现什么 |
| It turns out what we found was pretty surprising. |
结果让我们大吃一惊 |
| You take all of the conflict, all of the chaos , all of the noise, and out of that comes this precise mathematical distribution of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict. |
如果将所有的冲突 所有的骚乱、暴动 全部提取出 按照攻击规模排列显示,数据呈现出了这种分布 按照攻击规模排列显示,数据呈现出了这种分布 |
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chaos:n.混沌,混乱; precise:adj.准确的;确切的;精确的;明确的; mathematical:adj.数学的,数学上的;精确的;
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| This blew our mind. |
结果令我们非常兴奋 |
| Why should a conflict like Iraq have this as its fundamental signature ? |
为什么伊拉克的冲突战争 会存在这样的基本特征呢？ |
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fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; signature:n.署名;签名;信号;
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| Why should there be order in war? |
为什么会产生如此的排列呢？ |
| We didn't really understand that. |
我们真的搞不懂了 |
| We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq. |
可能伊拉克战争确实存在一些特殊性吧 |
| So we looked at a few more conflicts . |
我们来看看更多的冲突战争 |
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conflicts:n.冲突; v.抵触;
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| We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan, and we looked at Senegal. |
这是哥伦比亚的情况、阿富汗的 这是塞内加尔的 |
| And the same pattern emerged in each conflict. |
在这些冲突战争中全部呈现出相同的模式 |
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emerged:v.(从隐蔽处或暗处)出现;暴露;露出真相;显现;(emerge的过去分词和过去式)
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| This wasn't supposed to happen. |
这本是不应该发生的！ |
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supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式)
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| These are different wars, with different religious factions , different political factions , and different socioeconomic problems. |
这些是不同的战争,不同的信仰冲突 不同的政治斗争,不同的社会经济问题 （所带来的战争） |
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religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑; factions:n.派系(faction的复数);内讧; socioeconomic:adj.社会经济学的;
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| And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them are the same. |
但这些战争中的潜在的最根本的规率 却是一样的 |
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underlying:adj.根本的; v.构成…的基础; (underlie的现在分词)
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| So we went a little wider. |
所以我们要更进一步分析 |
| We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on. |
看看我们周围的世界,我么能够掌握的所有数据 |
| From Peru to Indonesia , we studied this same pattern again. |
从秘鲁到印度尼西亚 我们发现了同样的规律 |
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Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国);
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| And we found that not only were the distributions these straight lines, but the slope of these lines, they clustered around this value of Alpha equals 2.5. |
结果发现不仅仅 这些直线分布 而且这些线的斜率,都会围绕着 Alpha等于2.5这个值 |
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distributions:n.分派;分派;分销(distribution的复数形式); slope:n.斜坡;坡度;坡地;山坡;v.倾斜;有坡度;悄悄地走;潜行; clustered:adj.成群的;成簇的;v.群聚;聚集;(cluster的过去式和过去分词) Alpha:n.希腊字母表的第1个字母;
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| And we could generate an equation that could predict the likelihood of an attack. |
于是我们可以生成一个等式 来预测攻击的可能性 |
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generate:v.产生;引起; equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式; predict:v.预报;预言;预告; likelihood:n.可能性,可能;
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| What we're saying here is the probability of an attack killing X number of people in a country like Iraq, is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack, raised to the power of negative Alpha. |
也就是说 出现造成 X 人死亡的攻击的概率 在类似伊朗这样的国家 它等于一个常量,乘以攻击的规模 的负Alpha次方 |
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probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝;
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| And negative Alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before. |
负Alpha值就是刚才展示的那条直线的斜率 |
| So what? |
怎么样？ |
| This is data, statistics . What does it tell us about these conflicts? |
这个数据统计表,能告诉我们什么？ |
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statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
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| That was a challenge we had to face as physicists . |
这是我们作为物理学者所面临的挑战 |
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physicists:n.物理学家;机械唯物论者(physicist的复数);
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| How do we explain this? |
我们该如何解释这个数据？ |
| And what we really found was that Alpha if we really think about it, is the organizational structure of the insurgency . |
假如我们真的找出了这个Alpha值 如果我们认真思考下,这是关于 叛乱的组织及结构 |
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organizational:adj.组织的;编制的; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造; insurgency:n.叛乱;暴动;叛乱状态;
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| Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks, which is really the distribution of the group strength carrying out the attacks. |
Alpha值作为攻击规模的分布 其实反映的是 发动袭击一方的强度分布 |
| So we look at a process of group dynamics -- coalescence and fragmentation . |
我们来看一个集团动态变化的过程 联合统一和各自为政 |
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process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; dynamics:n.动力学,力学; coalescence:n.合并;联合;接合; fragmentation:n.破碎;分裂;[计]存储残片;
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| Groups coming together. Groups breaking apart. |
合久必分,分久必和 |
| And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it? |
于是我们开始加以计算。我们能模拟（出结果）吗？ |
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simulate:vt.模仿;假装;冒充;adj.模仿的;假装的;
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| Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing in places like Iraq? |
我们是否能创造出类似于伊拉克战争中 的规律吗？ |
| Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job. |
结果看来我们好像做了一个合理的工作 |
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reasonable:adj.合理的,公道的;通情达理的;
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| We can run these simulations . |
我们可以模拟这些变化 |
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simulations:n.[计]模拟(simulation的复数);[计]仿真;
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| We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics to explain the patterns that we see all around the conflicts around the world. |
我们可以使用集团的动态变化过程来重建这一过程 来解释在我们身边的冲突战争中 所显示出的这种基础模式 |
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recreate:vt.再现;再创造
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| So what's going on? |
那么,结果如何呢？ |
| Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts have the same patterns? |
为什么这些看上去不同的冲突战争 会具有同样的模式呢？ |
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seemingly:adv.看来似乎;表面上看来;
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| Now what I believe is going on is that the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt . |
现在我相信为什么了: 叛乱部队,随着时间的推移,他们适应了 |
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insurgent:adj.叛乱的;起义的;n.叛乱者;起义者; evolve:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
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| And it turns out there is only one solution to fight a much stronger enemy. |
结果就只有一种解决方案 就是与更强的敌人战斗 |
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solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
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| And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force, you don't exist. |
如果你找不到类似于叛乱部队这种敌人的话 那么你根本就不应该存在 |
| So every insurgent force that is ongoing , every conflict that is ongoing , it's going to look something like this. |
因此每支现存的叛乱部队 每场正在进行的冲突战争 最后就会发展成这样 |
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ongoing:n.发展; adj.持续存在的;
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| And that is what we think is happening. |
这正是我们通过该模式计算后会预料的。 |
| Taking it forward, how do we change it? |
如果把眼光放长,我们如何能改变（战争）呢？ |
| How do we end a war like Iraq? |
我们怎样才能结束伊拉克战争？ |
| What does it look like? |
看这个像什么？ |
| Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5. |
Alpha值是结构中的关键,它的值稳定在2.5 |
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stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房;
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| This is what wars look like when they continue. |
这是如果继续战争后所发生的情况 |
| We've got to change that. |
我们来试着调整这个值 |
| We can push it up. |
我们将它提高 |
| The forces become more fragmented . |
部队变得更加分散 |
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fragmented:v.(使)碎裂,破裂,分裂;(fragment的过去分词和过去式)
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| There is more of them, but they are weaker. |
人数变得更多,但攻击力减弱了 |
| Or we push it down. |
或者我们降低它 |
| They're more robust . There is less groups. |
他们变得更加强悍,但集团减少了 |
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robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的;
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| But perhaps you can sit and talk to them. |
但是也许可以坐下来和他们谈判 |
| So this graph here, I'm going to show you now. |
因此这张图表,我将要展示给你们的是 |
| No one has seen this before. This is literally stuff that we've come through last week. |
在此之前,没有人看过。 这是我们上周刚刚计算出来的。 |
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literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
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| And we see the evolution of Alpha through time. |
我们能够看到Alpha值的演变过程 |
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evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
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| We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state the wars around the world look like. |
看开始时候的情况。它一直慢慢增加到稳定到2.5左右 正如同身边战争中的情况 |
| And it stays there through the invasion of Falusia until the Samarra bombings in the |
在入侵Falusia期间,Alpha值没有发生变化 直到2006年伊拉克大选时发生的 |
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invasion:n.武装入侵;侵略;侵犯;涌入;干预; bombings:n.[军]轰炸,[军]投弹;v.轰击;引爆炸弹(bomb的ing形式);
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| Iraqi elections of '06. |
萨迈拉炸弹袭击事件 |
| And the system gets perturbed . It moves upwards to a fragmented state. |
整个系统变得越来越不安全,Alpha值 变化到一个分散的状态 |
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perturbed:v.扰乱;使心慌(perturb的过去分词);adj.烦躁不安的;受扰动的; upwards:adv.向上;在上部;向上游;
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| This is when the surge happens. |
此时美国宣布开始向伊拉克派出增援部队 |
| And depending on who you ask, the surge was supposed to push it up even further. |
当然这取决谁问你 理论上讲,增援应该将Alpha值进一步增高 |
| The opposite happened. |
结果相反的情况发生 |
| The groups became stronger. |
集团变得越来越强大 |
| They became more robust. |
他们变得越来越野蛮 |
| And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down. |
看来我猜对了。Alpha应该进一步地降低 |
| We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened. |
我们能够与他们对话,能够商讨解决方案。结果相反的情况发生了 |
| It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented. |
Alpha值又上升了,集团变得更加分散 |
| And this tells me one of two things. |
这张图表告诉我两件事情 |
| Either we're back where we started, and the surge has had no effect. |
无论我们返回起点 或派出增援都没有产生预期效果 |
| Or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent that we can start to think about maybe moving out. |
最终集团都会变得更加分散 我们是否应该开始考虑撤军了 |
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finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; extent:n.程度;范围;长度;
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| I don't know what the answer is to that. |
我不知道具体的答案 |
| But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency to answer that question. |
但我知道我们应该好好看看叛乱的结构 再来回答这个问题 |
| Thank you. |
谢谢 |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |