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SaraMenker_2017G-_全球粮食危机可能在下个10年来临_
Since 2009, the world has been stuck on a single narrative around a coming global food crisis and what we need to do to avoid it. 从2009年开始, 全世界都在讨论一个话题, 就是即将来临的全球粮食危机, 以及我们应该怎么来避免它。
narrative:n.叙述;故事;讲述;adj.叙事的,叙述的;叙事体的; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
How do we feed nine billion people by 2050? 到2050年,我们 怎么来养活90亿人口？
Every conference , podcast and dialogue around global food security starts with this question and goes on to answer it by saying we need to produce 70 percent more food. 关于全球粮食危机的每一场会议, 每一期博客,每一场对话 都会问到这个问题, 而答案几乎都是 我们需要增加70%的粮食产量。
conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会) podcast:n.播客;
The 2050 narrative started to evolve shortly after global food prices hit all-time highs in 2008. 关于2050年的这个话题, 出现在2008年,当时 全球粮食价格达到了历史最高点。
evolve:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成; all-time:adj.空前的;全部时间的;历来的;
People were suffering and struggling, governments and world leaders needed to show us that they were paying attention and were working to solve it. 人们焦虑不安, 认为政府和世界领袖们 应该让我们相信, 他们在关注这个问题, 并在着手解决。
The thing is, 2050 is so far into the future that we can't even relate to it, and more importantly, if we keep doing what we're doing, it's going to hit us a lot sooner than that. 但问题是,2050年离我们还很遥远, 可能跟我们都没什么关系了, 更重要的是, 如果我们不做任何改变, 危机会在那之前降临。
I believe we need to ask a different question. 我觉得我们应该问另一个问题。
The answer to that question needs to be framed differently. 而这个问题的答案 要重新进行组织。
framed:v.给…做框;给…镶边;制订;拟订;(frame的过去分词和过去式)
If we can reframe the old narrative and replace it with new numbers that tell us a more complete pictures, numbers that everyone can understand and relate to, we can avoid the crisis altogether. 如果我们换一种表述的方法, 更新一下数据, 可能能看得更全面, 让数据简单易懂, 跟每个人都有关, 我们可以共同来避免这场危机。
reframe:v.再构造,再组织;重新制订;给…装上新框架;
I was a commodities trader in my past life and one of the things that I learned trading is that every market has a tipping point , the point at which change occurs so rapidly that it impacts the world and things change forever. 我以前是做商品贸易的, 贸易教会我一件事, 每个市场都有一个转折点, 在它来临之时,变化来得如此之快, 会影响整个世界, 带来永久的变化。
commodities:n.商品(commodity的复数);日用品;商品期货; tipping point:n.(个案积累终成大趋势的)引爆点; occurs:v.重现(occur的第三人称单数); impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用;
Think of the last financial crisis, or the dot-com crash. 想想最近一场金融危机, 或者互联网泡沫。
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; dot-com:n.网络公司;商业域名;
So here's my concern . 因此我担忧的是,
concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事;
We could have a tipping point in global food and agriculture if surging demand surpasses the agricultural system's structural capacity to produce food. 如果大幅增长的粮食需求, 超过了农业系统生产粮食的上限, 那我们在全球粮食和农业市场 也会遇到这个转折点。
surging:v.汹涌;使强烈地感到;急剧上升;激增;(surge的现在分词) surpasses:vt.超越;胜过,优于;非…所能办到或理解; agricultural:adj.农业的;农艺的; structural:adj.结构的;建筑的; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力;
This means at this point supply can no longer keep up with demand despite exploding prices, unless we can commit to some type of structural change. 到那个时候,供应会跟不上需求, 尽管价格会上涨, 除非我们能从结构上进行某种改变。
keep up with:赶得上;和…保持联系; despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; exploding:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);(explode的现在分词) commit:v.犯(罪等);干(坏事等);[法]提(审);判处;
This time around, it won't be about stock markets and money. 到那个时候, 就跟股票市场和货币无关了。
stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的;
It's about people. 而是跟人有关。
People could starve and governments may fall. 人们会遭遇饥饿,政府会垮台。
This question of at what point does supply struggle to keep up with surging demand is one that started off as an interest for me while I was trading and became an absolute obsession . 这个具体的时间点: 供应何时会跟不上需求？ 我在做贸易的时候,起初很感兴趣, 后来变得痴迷
obsession:n.痴迷;困扰;[内科][心理]强迫观念;
It went from interest to obsession when I realized through my research how broken the system was and how very little data was being used to make such critical decisions. 为什么会从兴趣到痴迷呢 因为我在研究过程中发现, 整个体系是如此不完善, 如此重要的决定, 背后的支持数据又如此之少。
critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
That's the point I decided to walk away from a career on Wall Street and start an entrepreneurial journey to start Gro Intelligence . 于是我决定离开华尔街, 走上创业之路, 成立了Gro Intelligence公司。
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; Wall Street:n.华尔街(美国纽约金融中心和证券交易所所在地); entrepreneurial:adj.企业家的,创业者的;中间商的; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行; Intelligence:n.智力;智慧;才智;(尤指关于敌国的)情报;
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data and doing the work to make it actionable , to empower decision-makers at every level. 我们专注于数据收集, 并令数据具有可操作性, 以便支持各个级别的决策者。
actionable:adj.可控告的;可提起诉讼的; empower:vt.授权,允许;使能够;
But doing this work, we also realized that the world, not just world leaders, but businesses and citizens like every single person in this room, lacked an actionable guide on how we can avoid a coming global food security crisis. 但在工作过程中, 我们也发现这个世界 不仅仅是领导者, 还包括商人和普通公民, 就像在座的每一个人, 大家都缺乏行动指引, 应该如何避免即将来临的 全球粮食危机。
And so we built a model, leveraging the petabytes of data we sit on, and we solved for the tipping point. 于是我们建造了一个模型, 利用我们掌握的海量数据, 我们解决了这个转折点的问题。
leveraging:v.利用贷款进行投机;(leverage的现在分词) petabytes:n.[计]拍字节;(petabytes是petabyte的复数);
Now, no one knows we've been working on this problem and this is the first time that I'm sharing what we discovered. 目前还没有人知道 我们在研究这个问题, 这也是我首次分享我们的发现。
We discovered that the tipping point is actually a decade from now. 我们发现,这个转折点 会出现在10年之后。
We discovered that the world will be short 214 trillion calories by 2027. 我们发现,全世界 会有214万亿卡路里的短缺, 到2027年。
trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; calories:n.[物]卡路里(热量单位,calorie的复数);
The world is not in a position to fill this gap . 目前我们还没办法填补这个短缺。
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开;
Now, you'll notice that the way I'm framing this is different from how I started, and that's intentional , because until now this problem has been quantified using mass : think kilograms, tons, hectograms , whatever your unit of choice is in mass. 你们会发现, 我现在描述的方式跟刚开始不一样, 我是特意这么做的,因为直到现在, 我们都是用重量在量化这个问题: 像千克、吨、百克, 无论怎么选,都是重量单位。
framing:v.给…做框;作伪证陷害;制订;拟订;n.框架;结构;骨骼;(frame的现在分词) intentional:adj.故意的;蓄意的;策划的; quantified:adj.量化的,定量;v.被量化(quantify的过去分词); mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集; hectograms:n.百克;(hectograms是hectogram的复数);
Why do we talk about food in terms of weight? 为什么我们要用重量来讨论粮食呢？
Because it's easy. 因为用起来简单。
We can look at a photograph and determine tonnage on a ship by using a simple pocket calculator . 我们可以仅凭一张照片, 加一个计算器, 就可以算出一艘船的总吨位。
determine:v.决定;确定;测定;查明;形成;影响;裁决;安排; tonnage:n.吨位,载重量;船舶总吨数,排水量; calculator:n.计算器;
We can weigh trucks, airplanes and oxcarts . 我们可以测卡车、飞机和牛车的重量。
airplanes:n.(美)[航]飞机(airplane的复数); oxcarts:n.牛车;
But what we care about in food is nutritional value. 但真正重要的是粮食的营养。
nutritional:adj.营养的;滋养的;
Not all foods are created equal, even if they weigh the same. 因为即使重量一样, 粮食也各不相同。
This I learned firsthand when I moved from Ethiopia to the US for university. 这一点我有亲身体会, 是在我从埃塞尔比亚 到美国念大学的时候。
firsthand:adj.直接的;直接采购的;直接得来的;adv.直接地; Ethiopia:n.埃塞俄比亚;
Upon my return back home, my father, who was so excited to see me, greeted me by asking why I was fat. 当我再回老家的时候, 我父亲见到我非常兴奋, 问我为什么长胖了。
Now, turns out that eating approximately the same amount of food as I did in Ethiopia, but in America, had actually lent a certain fullness to my figure. 原来,尽管我的饭量 跟我在埃塞尔比亚的时候一样大, 但是在美国, 这么多的食物 对我的身体而言是有点多的。
approximately:adv.大约,近似地;近于; fullness:n.充满;丰富;完全;成熟;
This is why we should care about calories, not about mass. 因此我们应该关注卡路里, 而不是重量。
It is calories which sustain us. 我们都靠卡路里支持。
sustain:v.支持;支撑;遭受;证实;
So 214 trillion calories is a very large number, and not even the most dedicated of us think in the hundreds of trillions of calories. 214万亿卡路里是个非常大的数字, 可能即使是最专业的人 也想象不出几百万亿卡路里 意味着什么。
dedicated:adj.献身的; v.把…奉献给; (dedicate的过去分词和过去式) trillions:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
So let me break this down differently. 我们换种方式来解释。
An alternative way to think about this is to think about it in Big Macs. 我们可以把这些卡路里 都想象成麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡。
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择;
214 trillion calories. 214万亿卡路里。
A single Big Mac has 563 calories. 一个巨无霸是563卡路里。
That means the world will be short 379 billion Big Macs in 2027. 也就是说到2027年, 全世界将短缺3790亿个巨无霸汉堡。
That is more Big Macs than McDonald's has ever produced. 这比麦当劳至今生产的 所有巨无霸还要多。
So how did we get to these numbers in the first place ? 那么这个数据最初是怎么来的呢？
in the first place:首先;起初;
They're not made up. 不是我们编的。
This map shows you where the world was 40 years ago. 这张图显示的是40年前,
It shows you net calorie gaps in every country in the world. 每个国家的卡路里差异。
gaps:n.差异,缺口;缝隙(gap的复数形式);v.裂开;使豁裂(gap的第三人称单数形式);
Now, simply put, this is just calories consumed in that country minus calories produced in that same country. 简单来说, 就是该国家消费的卡路里数量, 减去它生产的卡路里数量。
consumed:adj.沉迷…的; v.消耗,耗费; (consume的过去分词和过去式) minus:prep.减,减去;n.负号,减号;不足;负数;adj.减的;负的;
This is not a statement on malnutrition or anything else . 它并不代表营养不良或者其他指标。
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; malnutrition:n.营养失调,营养不良; or anything else:或什么别的;或任何东西其他;
It's simply saying how many calories are consumed in a single year minus how many are produced. 仅仅显示1年内消耗的卡路里数量 减去生产的卡路里数量。
Blue countries are net calorie exporters , or self-sufficient . 蓝色的国家是卡路里净出口国, 或者达到自给自足。
exporters:n.[贸易]出口商;出口公司(exporter的复数形式); self-sufficient:adj.自给自足的;极为自负的;过于自信的;
They have some in storage for a rainy day . 他们还有一些储备以防万一。
rainy day:雨天;穷困时期;
Red countries are net calorie importers . 红色的是卡路里净进口国。
importers:n.进口商(importer的复数形式);
The deeper, the brighter the red, the more you're importing. 红色越深越亮的, 代表进口得越多。
40 years ago, such few countries were net exporters of calories, 40年前,卡路里 净出口国是如此之少,
I could count them with one hand. 一只手都能数得过来。
Most of the African continent , 非洲大陆的大部分,
continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的;
Europe, most of Asia, 欧洲,亚洲大部分,
South America excluding Argentina , were all net importers of calories. 南美除了阿根廷, 全是卡路里净进口国。
South America:n.南美洲; excluding:prep.不包括; v.不包括; Argentina:n.阿根廷(位于拉丁美洲);
And what's surprising is that China used to actually be food self-sufficient. 令人惊讶的是中国 当时居然是自给自足的。
India was a big net importer of calories. 印度则是一个大的卡路里进口国。
40 years later, this is today. 40年后,时至今日。
You can see the drastic transformation that's occurred in the world. 你能看到巨大的变化。
drastic:adj.激烈的;猛烈的;n.烈性泻药; transformation:n.转变;(用于南非)民主改革; occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式)
Brazil has emerged as an agricultural powerhouse . 巴西成为了农业引擎。
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); emerged:v.(从隐蔽处或暗处)出现;暴露;露出真相;显现;(emerge的过去分词和过去式) powerhouse:n.精力旺盛的人;动力室;发电所;
Europe is dominant in global agriculture. 欧洲成为了全球农业的统治者。
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
India has actually flipped from red to blue. 印度从红色变成了蓝色。
flipped:v.(使)快速翻转;按(开关);轻掷;(flip的过去分词和过去式)
It's become food self-sufficient. 已经可以自给自足。
And China went from that light blue to the brightest red that you see on this map. 而中国从浅蓝色 变成了这张地图上最亮的红色。
How did we get here? What happened? 怎么会变成这样？发生了什么？
So this chart shows you India and Africa. 这张图显示的是印度和非洲。
Blue line is India, red line is Africa. 蓝色的线是印度,红色的是非洲。
How is it that two regions that started off so similarly in such similar trajectories take such different paths? 为什么这两个地区 原本的轨迹如此相似, 之后差异变得如此之大？
regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数) similarly:adv.同样地;类似于; trajectories:n.轨迹;轨道线(trajectory的复数形式);
India had a green revolution . 印度进行了一场绿色革命。
revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环;
Not a single African country had a green revolution. 而没有一个非洲国家做到了。
The net outcome ? 那么产出情况呢？
outcome:n.结果,结局;成果;
India is food self-sufficient and in the past decade has actually been exporting calories. 印度现在自给自足了, 而且过去的10年间 它甚至开始出口卡路里。
exporting:v.出口;输出;传播,输出(思想或活动);(export的现在分词)
The African continent now imports over 300 trillion calories a year. 现在非洲大陆 每年进口300万亿卡路里。
Then we add China, the green line. 我们把中国加进来,那条绿线。
Remember the switch from the blue to the bright red? 还记得吗？它是从蓝色 变成了明亮的红色。
What happened and when did it happen? 为什么会这样？何时发生的？
China seemed to be on a very similar path to India until the start of the 21st century, where it suddenly flipped. 中国的曲线刚开始跟印度很像, 直到21世纪初, 突然开始急剧上升。
A young and growing population combined with significant economic growth made its mark with a big bang and no one in the markets saw it coming. 年轻又不断增长的人口, 加上飞速的经济增长, 导致了这样的结果, 没有人预见到了这一点。
significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; bang:n.猛敲; v.猛敲; v.正好;
This flip was everything to global agricultural markets. 这个转折点对全球农业市场 而言非常重要。
Luckily now, South America was starting to boom at the same time as China's rise, and so therefore, supply and demand were still somewhat balanced. 幸运的是,南美洲 开始飞速发展的时间点跟中国一样, 但它的供给和需求还是基本平衡的。
boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; supply and demand:n.供求关系; somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
So the question becomes, where do we go from here? 于是问题变成了, 接下来我们会何去何从？
Oddly enough, it's not a new story, except this time it's not just a story of China. 神奇的是, 这并不是一个新故事, 只是这一次,这个故事 不仅仅关于中国。
Oddly:adv.古怪地;奇妙地;单数地;
It's a continuation of China, an amplification of Africa and a paradigm shift in India. 而是中国事态的延续, 非洲事态的放大, 印度事态的大转变
continuation:n.继续;续集;延长;附加部分;扩建物; amplification:n.[电子]放大(率);扩大;详述; paradigm shift:n.范式转移(指行事或思维方式的重大变化);
By 2023, 到2023年,
Africa's population is forecasted to overtake that of India's and China's. 预计非洲的人口数将超过印度和中国。
forecasted:v.[气象][通信]预测;预见(forecast的过去分词); overtake:v.超过;赶上;(在数量或重要性方面)大于;(不愉快的事情)突然发生;
By 2023, these three regions combined will make up over half the world's population. 到那时候,这3个地区的人口 将超过世界总人口的一半。
This crossover point starts to present really interesting challenges for global food security. 这个转折点将对全球粮食安全 带来非常有意思的挑战。
crossover:n.交叉;天桥;转线路;变向运球过人;
And a few years later, we're hit hard with that reality. 几年后,我们就会面对这个严峻的现实。
What does the world look like in 10 years? 10年后的世界会是什么样？
So far, as I mentioned, India has been food self-sufficient. 到目前为止,像我刚刚提到的, 印度的粮食是自给自足的。
Most forecasters predict that this will continue. 很多人预测这一点不会改变。
forecasters:n.预报员; predict:v.预报;预言;预告;
We disagree. 而我们不这么认为。
India will soon become a net importer of calories. 印度很快会变成一个 卡路里净进口国。
This will be driven both by the fact that demand is growing from a population growth standpoint plus economic growth. 原因有二, 一是需求会随着人口的增长而增长, 二是经济的发展。
standpoint:n.立场;观点;
It will be driven by both. 这两点都是原因。
And even if you have optimistic assumptions around production growth, it will make that slight flip. 即使你们对于生产的增长 持有乐观估计, 那也会带来细微的上扬。
optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数) slight:adj.轻微的;略微的;细小的;纤细的;n.侮慢;冷落;轻视;v.侮慢;冷落;轻视;
That slight flip can have huge implications . 这点细微的上扬 可能会造成巨大的后果。
implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数);
Next, Africa will continue to be a net importer of calories, again driven by population growth and economic growth. 接下来,非洲会继续 作为卡路里净进口地区, 同样也是因为人口增长和经济发展。
This is again assuming optimistic production growth assumptions. 同样我们也假设生产的增长是乐观的。
assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词)
Then China, where population is flattening out, calorie consumption will explode because the types of calories consumed are also starting to be higher-calorie-content foods. 然后是中国, 人口增长已经停止, 而卡路里的消耗却会爆炸式增长, 因为他们所消耗的卡路里种类, 将会来源于高卡路里的食物。
flattening:n.整平;扁率;压扁作用;v.压扁(flatten的ing形式); consumption:n.消费;消耗;肺痨; explode:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);
And so therefore, these three regions combined start to present a really interesting challenge for the world. 因此, 这3个地区加起来, 会给世界带来有趣的挑战。
Until now, countries with calorie deficits have been able to meet these deficits by importing from surplus regions. 到目前为止,那些卡路里不足的国家 尚可以通过从卡路里盈余的地区 进口食物来填补空缺。
deficits:n.[财政]赤字,亏损(deficit的复数形式); surplus:n.剩余;[贸易]顺差;盈余;过剩;adj.剩余的;过剩的;
By surplus regions, I'm talking about 我所指的盈余地区,
North America , South America and Europe. 包括北美、南美和欧洲。
North America:n.北美洲;
This line chart over here shows you the growth and the projected growth over the next decade of production from North America, South America and Europe. 这张图所表现的, 是北美、南美和欧洲生产的增长, 以及未来十年的增长规划。
What it doesn't show you is that most of this growth is actually going to come from South America. 而从这张图里看不出来的, 是大部分的增长 实际上会来自于南美。
And most of this growth is going to come at the huge cost of deforestation . 而这大部分的增长, 是靠砍伐森林这种巨大的代价换来的。
deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐;
And so when you look at the combined demand increase coming from India, China and the African continent, and look at it versus the combined increase in production coming from India, China, the African continent, 因此,当你整体来看 印度、中国和非洲大陆的需求增长, 并将其与生产增长进行对比, 除了上述3个地区外,
versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
North America, South America and Europe, you are left with a 214-trillion-calorie deficit, one we can't produce. 还有北美、南美和欧洲, 就会发现存在 214万亿卡路里的空缺, 我们无法填补。
And this, by the way , is actually assuming we take all the extra calories produced in North America, South America and Europe and export them solely to India, China and Africa. 而且这还是假设 我们把北美、南美和欧洲 生产的所有剩余的卡路里, 全部出口到印度、中国和非洲。
by the way:顺便说一下; extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: solely:adv.单独地,唯一地;
What I just presented to you is a vision of an impossible world. 我刚刚呈现给大家的 是一个无解的世界。
vision:n.视力;美景;幻象;想象力;v.想象;显现;梦见;
We can do something to change that. 我们可以改变这一点。
We can change consumption patterns, we can reduce food waste, or we can make a bold commitment to increasing yields exponentially . 我们可以改变消费模式, 我们可以减少浪费, 或者我们可以大胆承诺, 呈几何级数的增加产出。
bold:adj.大胆的,英勇的;黑体的;厚颜无耻的;险峻的; commitment:n.承诺;投入;保证;许诺; yields:n.生产量,投资效益(yield的复数形式); v.[经]生产; exponentially:adv.以指数方式;
Now, I'm not going to go into discussing changing consumption patterns or reducing food waste, because those conversations have been going on for some time now. 今天我不想讨论 改变消费习惯或者减少浪费, 因为类似的话题已经讨论过多次。
Nothing has happened. 然而并没有什么用。
Nothing has happened because those arguments ask the surplus regions to change their behavior on behalf of deficit regions. 因为这些争论 是要求盈余地区的人改变生活习惯, 来帮助亏空地区的人。
on behalf of:代表;为了;
Waiting for others to change their behavior on your behalf, for your survival , is a terrible idea. 等待别人改变生活习惯 来迁就你,拯救你, 并不是个好主意。
survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
It's unproductive . 因为效益很低。
unproductive:adj.非生产性的;徒劳的;不毛的;不生产的;
So I'd like to suggest an alternative that comes from the red regions. 因此我对红色地区的国家 有一个替代方案。
China, India, Africa. 中国、印度和非洲。
China is constrained in terms of how much more land it actually has available for agriculture, and it has massive water resource availability issues . 中国因为没有更多的土地 可以用来发展农业, 而且水资源也非常有限。
constrained:adj.不自然的; v.约束; (constrain的过去分词和过去式) massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; resource:n.资源;资料;才智;财力;v.向…提供资金(或设备); availability:n.可用性;有效性;实用性; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数)
So the answer really lies in India and in Africa. 因此只能靠印度和非洲。
India has some upside in terms of potential yield increases. 印度在增产方面还有些潜力可挖。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
Now this is the gap between its current yield and the theoretical maximum yield it can achieve. 目前的产量 和理论最高产量间还有些差距。
theoretical:adj.理论的;理论上的;假设的;推理的; maximum:n.最大限度;最大量;最高限度;adj.最高的;最多的;最大极限的;
It has some unfarmed arable land remaining, but not much, 印度还有些未开垦的耕地,但是不多,
arable:adj.适于耕种的;可开垦的;n.耕地;
India is quite land-constrained. 它的土地也很紧张。
Now, the African continent, on the other hand , has vast amounts of arable land remaining and significant upside potential in yields. 而非洲大陆,情况却不一样, 还有很多可耕种的土地, 在产量上还有巨大的潜力。
on the other hand:另一方面;
Somewhat simplified picture here, but if you look at sub-Saharan African yields in corn today, they are where North American yields were in 1940. 这是大致的情况, 但撒哈拉以南非洲如今的玉米产量, 相当于北美1940年的水平。
simplified:v.简化; (simplify的过去式) sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区;
We don't have 70-plus years to figure this out, so it means we need to try something new and we need to try something different. 我们已经没有70多年 的时间来解决问题了, 这就意味着我们要用新方法, 要尝试不同的方法。
The solution starts with reforms . 解决问题需要从变革开始。
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; reforms:n.改革(reform的复数);v.改革(reform的单数第三人称);
We need to reform and commercialize the agricultural industries in Africa and in India. 我们需要对非洲和印度的农业 进行改革, 将其商业化。
commercialize:vt.使商业化;使商品化;
Now, by commercialization -- commercialization is not about commercial farming alone. 说到商业化, 商业化并不仅仅单指耕种。
commercialization:n.商品化,商业化;
Commercialization is about leveraging data to craft better policies , to improve infrastructure , to lower the transportation costs and to completely reform banking and insurance industries. 商业化是要利用数据, 来制定更好的政策, 改进基础设施, 降低运输成本, 并且彻底改革银行和保险业。
craft:n.工艺;船;手艺;飞行器;v.(尤指用手工)精心制作; policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) improve:v.改进;改善; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; transportation:n.运输;运输系统;运输工具;流放; insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的;
Commercialization is about taking agriculture from too risky an endeavor to one where fortunes can be made. 商业化就是要把农业 从一个高风险的行业 变成可以致富的行业。
endeavor:n.v.努力;尽力;试图; fortunes:n.命运,机遇(fortune复数形式); v.给…以大宗财富(fortune的第三人称单数形式);
Commercialization is not about just farmers. 商业化不仅仅是农民的事。
Commercialization is about the entire agricultural system. 而是关乎整个农业系统。
But commercialization also means confronting the fact that we can no longer place the burden of growth on small-scale farmers alone, and accepting that commercial farms and the introduction of commercial farms could provide certain economies of scale that even small-scale farmers can leverage . 但是商业化也意味着 我们要面对一个事实, 那就是我们不能把光把增产的重担 压在小农场主身上, 要接受一点,就是商业化农场的推行, 可以提供规模经济, 即使小农场主也可以加以利用。
confronting:v.直面;无法回避;降临于;处理;对抗;(confront的现在分词) burden:n.负担;责任;船的载货量;v.使负担;烦扰;装货于; small-scale:adj.小规模的; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) leverage:n.影响力;杠杆作用;杠杆效力;v.举债经营;借贷收购;
It is not about small-scale farming or commercial agriculture, or big agriculture. 不单单是小规模农业或者商业化农业, 或者大农业。
We can create the first successful models of the coexistence and success of small-scale farming alongside commercial agriculture. 我们可以让小规模农业和商业化农业共存, 建立首批成功的案例。
coexistence:n.共存;和平共处;并立;
This is because, for the first time ever, the most critical tool for success in the industry -- data and knowledge -- is becoming cheaper by the day . 因为有史以来第一次, 工业领域成功所需要的最重要的工具, 数据和知识, 变得越来越便宜。
by the day:按日;按日计算;
And very soon, it won't matter how much money you have or how big you are to make optimal decisions and maximize probability of success in reaching your intended goal. 很快,在追求成功的过程中, 在为达成目标而寻求最佳选择的过程中, 你有多少资金不再重要, 经营者的规模大小也不重要。
optimal:adj.最佳的;最理想的; maximize:vt.取…最大值;对…极为重视;vi.尽可能广义地解释;达到最大值; probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; intended:adj.预定的;计划的;v.打算;计划;想要;(intend的过去分词和过去式)
Companies like Gro are working really hard to make this a reality. 像Gro这样的公司 正在努力将这一切变成现实。
So if we can commit to this new, bold initiative , to this new, bold change, not only can we solve the 214-trillion gap that I talked about, but we can actually set the world on a whole new path. 如果我们能大胆承诺一个全新的未来, 承诺一个全新的、巨大的改变, 那么我们不光能解决 刚刚谈到的214万亿卡路里的问题, 我们甚至可以将世界带上新的道路。
initiative:n.倡议;主动性;积极性;主动权;adj.起始的;
India can remain food self-sufficient and Africa can emerge as the world's next dark blue region. 印度的粮食依然可以自给自足, 非洲可以成为世界上 下一个深蓝色的区域。
The new question is, how do we produce 214 trillion calories to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027? 新的问题是, 我们如何生产出这214万亿卡路里, 到2027年养活83亿人？
We have the solution. 我们已经有方案了。
We just need to act on it. 我们只需要开始行动。
Thank you. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) （掌声）