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SamHarris_2016T-_我们能打造人工智能且同时掌握控制权吗？_
I'm going to talk about a failure of intuition that many of us suffer from. 我想谈论一种我们很多人都经历过的 这就是为什么我们所处的环境是很危险的,
intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识;
It's really a failure to detect a certain kind of danger. 它让人们无法察觉到一种特定危险的存在。
detect:vt.察觉;发现;探测;
I'm going to describe a scenario that I think is both terrifying and likely to occur , and that's not a good combination , as it turns out. 我要向大家描述一个情景, 一个我觉得既令人害怕, 却又很可能发生的情景。 这样一个组合的出现, 显然不是一个好的征兆。
describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形; scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本; terrifying:adj.令人恐惧的;骇人的;极大的;v.使害怕,使恐怖;(terrify的现在分词) occur:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在; combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合;
And yet rather than be scared, most of you will feel that what I'm talking about is kind of cool. 不过,在座的大部分人都会觉得, 我要谈论的这件事其实挺酷的。
I'm going to describe how the gains we make in artificial intelligence could ultimately destroy us. 我将描述我们从人工智能中 获得的好处, 将怎样彻底地毁灭我们。
artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究;
And in fact, I think it's very difficult to see how they won't destroy us or inspire us to destroy ourselves. 事实上,想看到人工智能最终不摧毁我们是很难的, 或者说它必将驱使我们自我毁灭。
inspire:v.激发;鼓舞;启示;产生;使生灵感;
And yet if you're anything like me, you'll find that it's fun to think about these things. 如果你和我有共同点, 你会发现思考这些问题是相当有趣的。
And that response is part of the problem. 而这种反应就是问题的一部分。
response:n.响应;反应;回答;
OK? That response should worry you. 因为这种想法应该使你感到担忧。
And if I were to convince you in this talk that we were likely to suffer a global famine , either because of climate change or some other catastrophe , and that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren, are very likely to live like this, you wouldn't think, "Interesting. 假如我想在这个演讲中让你们相信, 我们因为气候变化或者其他灾难, 很可能会遭受全球性的饥荒, 同时,你们的子孙后辈 都可能在这样的饥荒中挣扎求生, 你们就不会觉得 “真有趣,
convince:v.使确信;使相信;说服,劝说; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; famine:n.饥荒; catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败;
I like this TED Talk." 我喜欢这个TED演讲。”
Famine isn't fun. 因为饥荒一点都不有趣。
Death by science fiction , on the other hand , is fun, and one of the things that worries me most about the development of AI at this point is that we seem unable to marshal an appropriate emotional response to the dangers that lie ahead. 不过,科幻小说中的死亡往往却引人入胜。 所以我现在最担心的一个问题是, 人们对人工智能的发展将带来的危险, 似乎还没有形成一个正确的认识。
science fiction:科幻小说; on the other hand:另一方面; marshal:n.元帅;司仪;执行官;v.收集;安排;控制人群; appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出; emotional:adj.情绪的;易激动的;感动人的;
I am unable to marshal this response, and I'm giving this talk. 我也同样如此,所以我想在这个演讲中和大家一起探讨。
It's as though we stand before two doors. 我们就像站在了两扇门前。
Behind door number one, we stop making progress in building intelligent machines. 就好像我们被赐予了一件神物, 我们停下打造智能机器的脚步。
intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的
Our computer hardware and software just stops getting better for some reason. 某些原因也使我们停止了对电脑软件和硬件的升级。
hardware:n.计算机硬件;五金器具;
Now take a moment to consider why this might happen. 现在让我们想一下为什么会这样。
I mean, given how valuable intelligence and automation are, we will continue to improve our technology if we are at all able to. 我的意思是,当我们认识到智能和自动化不可估量的价值时, 我们总会竭尽所能的改善这些科技。
valuable:adj.有价值的;贵重的;可估价的;n.贵重物品; automation:n.自动化;自动操作; improve:v.改进;改善; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
What could stop us from doing this? 那么,什么会使我们停下脚步呢？
A full-scale nuclear war? 一场大规模的核战争？
full-scale:adj.全面的;完全的;照原尺寸的; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的;
A global pandemic ? 一次全球性的瘟疫？
pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病;
An asteroid impact ? 一个小行星撞击了地球？
asteroid:n.[天]小行星;[无脊椎]海盘车;小游星;adj.星状的; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
Justin Bieber becoming president of the United States? 或者是贾斯汀·比伯成为了美国总统？
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
(Laughter) （笑声）
The point is, something would have to destroy civilization as we know it. 重点是,总有一个事物会摧毁人类现有的文明。
civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明;
You have to imagine how bad it would have to be to prevent us from making improvements in our technology permanently , generation after generation. 你需要思考这个灾难究竟有多恐怖, 才会永久性地阻止我们 发展科技, 永久性的。
improvements:n.改善;改进;改善的事物;(improvement的复数) permanently:adv.永久地,长期不变地;
Almost by definition , this is the worst thing that's ever happened in human history. 光想想它,就觉得这将是人类历史上 能发生的最惨绝人寰的事了。
definition:n.定义;清晰度;(尤指词典里的词或短语的)释义;解释;
So the only alternative , and this is what lies behind door number two, is that we continue to improve our intelligent machines year after year after year. 那么,我们唯一剩下的选择, 就藏在第二扇门的后面, 那就是我们持续改进我们的智能机器, 永不停歇。
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择; year after year:年复一年地;每年;
At a certain point, we will build machines that are smarter than we are, and once we have machines that are smarter than we are, they will begin to improve themselves. 在将来的某一天,我们会造出比我们更聪明的机器, 一旦我们有了比我们更聪明的机器, 它们将进行自我改进。
And then we risk what the mathematician IJ Good called an "intelligence explosion ," 然后我们就会承担着数学家IJ Good 所说的 “智能爆炸”的风险,
mathematician:n.数学家;善作数字计算的人; explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增;
that the process could get away from us. （科技进步的）进程将不再受我们的控制。
Now, this is often caricatured , as I have here, as a fear that armies of malicious robots will attack us. 现在我们时常会看到这样一些讽刺漫画, 我们总会担心受到一些不怀好意的 机器人军队的攻击。
caricatured:n.漫画;讽刺画;漫画手法;vt.画成漫画讽刺; malicious:adj.恶意的;恶毒的;蓄意的;怀恨的;
But that isn't the most likely scenario. 但这不是最可能出现的事情。
It's not that our machines will become spontaneously malevolent . 我们的机器不会自动变得邪恶。
spontaneously:adv.自发地;自然地;不由自主地; malevolent:adj.恶毒的;有恶意的;坏心肠的;
The concern is really that we will build machines that are so much more competent than we are that the slightest divergence between their goals and our own could destroy us. 所以,我们唯一的顾虑就是我们将会打造 比我们人类更有竞争力的机器。 而一旦我们和它们的目标不一致, 我们将会被摧毁。
concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; competent:adj.胜任的;有能力的;能干的;足够的; slightest:adj.极不重要的,最少的; divergence:n.分歧;
Just think about how we relate to ants. 想想我们与蚂蚁的关系吧。
We don't hate them. 我们不讨厌它们,
We don't go out of our way to harm them. 我们不会去主动去伤害它们。
In fact, sometimes we take pains not to harm them. 实际上,我们经常会尽量避免伤害蚂蚁。
take pains:尽力,费苦心;耐心;
We step over them on the sidewalk . 我们会选择从它们身边走过。
sidewalk:n.人行道;
But whenever their presence seriously conflicts with one of our goals, let's say when constructing a building like this one, we annihilate them without a qualm . 但只要它们的存在 妨碍到了我们达成目标, 比如说当我们在建造这样一个建筑, 我们会毫不手软地杀掉它们。
presence:n.存在;出席;参加;风度;仪态; conflicts:n.冲突; v.抵触; constructing:n.构造;v.构造(construct的现在分词); annihilate:vt.歼灭;战胜;废止;vi.湮灭;湮没; qualm:n.疑虑;不安;
The concern is that we will one day build machines that, whether they're conscious or not, could treat us with similar disregard . 所以我们的顾虑是,终将有一天我们打造的机器, 不管它们是否有意识,它们终将会以 我们对待蚂蚁的方式来对待我们。
conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的; treat:v.治疗;处理;招待;款待;n.款待;乐事;乐趣; disregard:vt.忽视;不理;漠视;不顾;n.忽视;不尊重;
Now, I suspect this seems far-fetched to many of you. 我想很多人会说这很遥远。
suspect:n.犯罪嫌疑人;v.怀疑;不信任;adj.可疑的; far-fetched:adj.强词夺理的;太牵强了;
I bet there are those of you who doubt that superintelligent AI is possible, much less inevitable . 我打赌你们中有些人还会怀疑超级人工智能是否可能实现, 认为我是在小题大做。
bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿; superintelligent:adj.有超常智慧的; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
But then you must find something wrong with one of the following assumptions . 但是你很快会发现以下这些假设中的某一个是有问题的。
assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数)
And there are only three of them. 下面是仅有的三种假设:
Intelligence is a matter of information processing in physical systems. 第一,智慧可以被看做物理系统中的信息处理过程。
processing:v.加工;处理;审核;数据处理;v.列队行进;缓缓前进;(process的现在分词) physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查;
Actually, this is a little bit more than an assumption. 事实上,这不仅仅是一个假设。
We have already built narrow intelligence into our machines, and many of these machines perform at a level of superhuman intelligence already. 我们已经在有些机器中嵌入了智能系统, 这些机器中很多已经 有着超越普通人的智慧了。
narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分; perform:v.表演;执行;履行;演出;工作,运转(好/不好); superhuman:adj.超人的;人类能力所不能及的;属于神仙的;n.超人;
And we know that mere matter can give rise to what is called "general intelligence," 而且,我们也知道任何一点小事 都可以引发所谓的“普遍智慧”,
mere:adj.仅仅的;只不过的;n.小湖;池塘; give rise to:使发生,引起;
an ability to think flexibly across multiple domains , because our brains have managed it. Right? 这是一种可以在不同领域间灵活思考的能力, 因为我们的大脑已经成功做到了这些。对吧？
flexibly:adv.灵活地;易曲地;柔软地;有弹性地; multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数; domains:n.域,域名;领域;网域(domain的复数形式);
I mean, there's just atoms in here, and as long as we continue to build systems of atoms that display more and more intelligent behavior, we will eventually , unless we are interrupted , we will eventually build general intelligence into our machines. 我的意思是,大脑里其实都是原子, 只要我们继续建造这些原子体系, 我们就能实现越来越多的智慧行为, 我们最终将会,当然除非我们被干扰, 我们最终将会给我们的机器赋予 广泛意义上的智能。
atoms:n.[物]原子(atom的复数); as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然; display:n.显示;炫耀;vt.显示;表现;陈列;vi.[动]作炫耀行为;adj.展览的;陈列用的; eventually:adv.最后,终于; interrupted:v.插嘴; adj.被阻止的,中断的; (interrupt的过去分词和过去式)
It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter, because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone . 我们要知道这个进程的速度并不重要, 因为任何进程都足够让我们走进死胡同。
crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; end zone:n.(美式足球的)球门区;
We don't need Moore's law to continue. We don't need exponential progress. 甚至不需要考虑摩尔定律,也不需要用指数函数来衡量,
exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数;
We just need to keep going. 这一切顺其自然都会发生。
The second assumption is that we will keep going. 第二个假设是,我们会一直创新。
We will continue to improve our intelligent machines. 去继续改进我们的智能机器。
And given the value of intelligence -- 由于智慧的价值就是——
I mean, intelligence is either the source of everything we value or we need it to safeguard everything we value. 提供我们所珍爱的事物, 或是用于保护我们所珍视的一切。
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; safeguard:n.[安全]保护;保卫;保护措施;vt.[安全]保护,护卫;
It is our most valuable resource . 智慧就是我们最有价值的资源。
resource:n.资源;资料;才智;财力;v.向…提供资金(或设备);
So we want to do this. 所以我们想继续革新它。
We have problems that we desperately need to solve. 因为我们有很多需要迫切解决的问题。
desperately:adv.拼命地;绝望地;不顾一切地;极度地;
We want to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer . 我们想要治愈像阿兹海默症和癌症这样的疾病,
diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类; cancer:n.癌症;恶性肿瘤;
We want to understand economic systems. We want to improve our climate science. 我们想要了解经济系统,想要改善我们的气候科学,
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
So we will do this, if we can. 所以只要可能,我们就会将革新继续下去。
The train is already out of the station, and there's no brake to pull. 而且革新的列车早已驶出,车上却没有刹车。
Finally , we don't stand on a peak of intelligence, or anywhere near it, likely. 第三种假设是:人类没有登上智慧的巅峰, 甚至连接近可能都谈不上。
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的;
And this really is the crucial insight . 这个想法十分关键。
insight:n.洞察力;洞悉;
This is what makes our situation so precarious , and this is what makes our intuitions about risk so unreliable . 这就是为什么我们所处的环境是很危险的, 这也是为什么我们对风险的直觉是不可靠的。
precarious:adj.危险的;不确定的; intuitions:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识; unreliable:adj.不可靠的;靠不住的;
Now, just consider the smartest person who has ever lived. 现在,请大家想一下谁是世界上最聪明的人。
On almost everyone's shortlist here is John von Neumann. 几乎每个人的候选名单里都会有约翰·冯·诺伊曼。
I mean, the impression that von Neumann made on the people around him, and this included the greatest mathematicians and physicists of his time, is fairly well-documented . 冯·诺伊曼留给周围人的印象 就是他是那个时代当中最杰出的数学家和物理学家, 这些都是完好的记录在案的。
impression:n.印象;影响;效果;感想; mathematicians:n.[数]数学家(mathematician的复数形式); physicists:n.物理学家;机械唯物论者(physicist的复数); fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直; well-documented:adj.证据充分的;
If only half the stories about him are half true, there's no question he's one of the smartest people who has ever lived. 即使他的故事里有一半是假的, 都没有人会质疑 他仍然是世界上最聪明的人之一。
So consider the spectrum of intelligence. 那么,让我们来看看智慧谱线吧。
spectrum:n.光谱;频谱;范围;余象;
Here we have John von Neumann. 现在我们有了约翰·冯·诺伊曼,
And then we have you and me. 还有我们大家。
And then we have a chicken. 另外还有一只鸡。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Sorry, a chicken. 抱歉,母鸡的位置应该在这。
(Laughter) （笑声）
There's no reason for me to make this talk more depressing than it needs to be. 这个演讲已经够严肃了,开个玩笑轻松一下。
depressing:adj.令人抑郁的; v.使沮丧; (depress的现在分词)
(Laughter) （笑声）
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however, that the spectrum of intelligence extends much further than we currently conceive , and if we build machines that are more intelligent than we are, they will very likely explore this spectrum in ways that we can't imagine, and exceed us in ways that we can't imagine. 然而,很可能的情况是,智慧谱线上的内容 已远远超出了我们的认知, 如果我们建造了比自身更聪明的机器, 它们将非常可能以超乎寻常的方式 延展这个谱线, 最终超越人类。
overwhelmingly:adv.压倒性地;不可抵抗地; extends:v.使伸长;扩大;扩展;延长;使延期;(extend的第三人称单数) currently:adv.当前;一般地; conceive:v.想出;想象;构想;设想;怀孕; explore:v.探索:探测:探险: exceed:v.超过(数量);超越(法律、命令等)的限制;
And it's important to recognize that this is true by virtue of speed alone. 仅仅从速度方面考虑,我们就能够意识到这一点。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; by virtue of:由于,凭借;
Right? So imagine if we just built a superintelligent AI that was no smarter than your average team of researchers at Stanford or MIT. 那么,现在让我们来想象一下我们刚建好一个超级人工智能机器, 大概和斯坦福或是麻省理工学院的研究员的 平均水平差不多吧。
Well, electronic circuits function about a million times faster than biochemical ones, so this machine should think about a million times faster than the minds that built it. 但是,电路板要比生物系统 运行速度快一百万倍, 所以这个机器思考起来会比那些打造它的大脑 快一百万倍。
electronic:adj.电子的;电子器件的;电子设备的; circuits:n.环行路线;电路;线路;巡回赛;v.巡回;周游;(circuit的第三人称单数和复数) biochemical:adj.生物化学的;
So you set it running for a week, week after week after week. 当你让它运行一周后, 而这个过程将周而复始。
How could we even understand, much less constrain , a mind making this sort of progress? 那么,我们又怎么能理解,更不用说去制约 一个以如此速度运行的机器呢？
constrain:v.约束;限制;强迫;强制;
The other thing that's worrying, frankly, is that, imagine the best case scenario. 坦白讲,另一件令人担心的事就是, 我们考虑一下最理想的情景。
So imagine we hit upon a design of superintelligent AI that has no safety concerns . 想象我们正好做出了一个没有任何安全隐患的 超级人工智能。
concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式);
We have the perfect design the first time around. 我们有了一个前所未有的完美设计。
It's as though we've been handed an oracle that behaves exactly as intended . 就好像我们被赐予了一件神物, 它能够准确的执行目标动作。
oracle:n.神谕;预言;神谕处;圣人; behaves:v.表现;表现得体;有礼貌;(behave的第三人称单数) intended:adj.预定的;计划的;v.打算;计划;想要;(intend的过去分词和过去式)
Well, this machine would be the perfect labor-saving device . 这个机器将完美的节省人力工作。
labor-saving:adj.节省劳力的;减轻劳动的; device:n.装置;策略;图案;
It can design the machine that can build the machine that can do any physical work, powered by sunlight , more or less for the cost of raw materials. 它设计出的机器能够再生产其他机器, 去完成所有的人力工作。 由太阳能供电, 而成本的多少仅取决于原材料。
sunlight:n.日光; more or less:或多或少;
So we're talking about the end of human drudgery . 那么,我们正在谈论的就是人力劳动的终结。
drudgery:n.苦工,苦差事;
We're also talking about the end of most intellectual work. 也关乎脑力劳动的终结。
intellectual:n.知识分子;脑力劳动者;adj.智力的;脑力的;理智的;有才智的;
So what would apes like ourselves do in this circumstance ? 那在这种情况下,像我们这样的 大猩猩 还能有什么用呢？
apes:n.[脊椎]猿;猩猩;类人猿(ape的复数);v.模仿;仿效(ape的三单形式); circumstance:n.环境,情况;事件;境遇;
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee and give each other massages . 我们可以悠闲地玩飞盘,给彼此做按摩。
Frisbee:n.(投掷游戏用的)飞盘; massages:n.按摩; v.按摩; (massage的第三人称单数和复数)
Add some LSD and some questionable wardrobe choices, and the whole world could be like Burning Man. 服用一些迷药,穿一些奇装异服, 整个世界都沉浸在狂欢节之中。
questionable:adj.可疑的;有问题的; wardrobe:n.衣柜;衣橱;(英国)放置衣物的壁橱;(一个人的)全部衣物;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Now, that might sound pretty good, but ask yourself what would happen under our current economic and political order? 那可能听起来挺棒的, 不过让我们扪心自问, 在现有的经济和政治体制下,这意味着什么？
It seems likely that we would witness a level of wealth inequality and unemployment that we have never seen before. 我们很可能会目睹 前所未有的贫富差距 和失业率。
witness:n.证人;目击者;证据;v.目击;证明;为…作证; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
Absent a willingness to immediately put this new wealth to the service of all humanity , a few trillionaires could grace the covers of our business magazines while the rest of the world would be free to starve. 有钱人不愿意马上把这笔新的财富 贡献出来服务社会, 这时一些千万富翁能够优雅地登上商业杂志的封面, 而剩下的人可能都在挨饿。
Absent:adj.缺席的;缺少的;心不在焉的;茫然的;v.使缺席; willingness:n.乐意;心甘情愿;自动自发; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; grace:n.优雅;恩惠;魅力;慈悲;v.使优美;
And what would the Russians or the Chinese do if they heard that some company in Silicon Valley was about to deploy a superintelligent AI? 如果听说硅谷里的公司 即将造出超级人工智能, 俄国人和中国人会采取怎样的行动呢？
Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地); was about to:眼看就要;即将;正要;行将; deploy:v.部署;利用;[军事]展开;(使)张开;
This machine would be capable of waging war, whether terrestrial or cyber , with unprecedented power. 那个机器将能够以一种前所未有的能力 去开展由领土问题和 网络问题引发的战争。
capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的; waging:v.开始,进行,继续(战争、战斗等);(wage的现在分词) terrestrial:adj.地球的;陆地的,[生物]陆生的;人间的;n.陆地生物;地球上的人; cyber:adj.网络的,计算机的; unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的;
This is a winner-take-all scenario. 这是一个胜者为王的世界。
winner-take-all:赢者通吃;
To be six months ahead of the competition here is to be 500,000 years ahead, at a minimum . 机器世界中的半年, 在现实世界至少会相当于 50万年。
competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛; minimum:n.最低限度;最小值;最少量;极小量;adj.最低的;最小的;最低限度的;
So it seems that even mere rumors of this kind of breakthrough could cause our species to go berserk . 所以仅仅是关于这种科技突破的传闻, 就可以让我们的种族丧失理智。
rumors:n.谣传,流言(rumor的复数);v.谣传(rumor的第三人称单数); breakthrough:n.突破;开始取得成功之时;adj.突破性的; species:n.[生物]物种;种类; go berserk:变狂暴;
Now, one of the most frightening things, in my view, at this moment, are the kinds of things that AI researchers say when they want to be reassuring . 在我的观念里, 当前最可怕的东西 正是人工智能的研究人员 安慰我们的那些话。
frightening:adj.可怕的;骇人的;引起恐惧的;v.使惊吓;使惊恐(frighten的现在分词) reassuring:adj.安心的;可靠的;鼓气的;v.使放心(reassure的现在分词);
And the most common reason we're told not to worry is time. 最常见的理由就是关于时间。
This is all a long way off , don't you know. 他们会说,现在开始担心还为时尚早。
a long way off:在远处;
This is probably 50 or 100 years away. 这很可能是50年或者100年之后才需要担心的事。
One researcher has said, "Worrying about AI safety is like worrying about overpopulation on Mars." 一个研究人员曾说过, “担心人工智能的安全性 就好比担心火星上人口过多一样。”
overpopulation:n.人口过剩;
This is the Silicon Valley version of "don't worry your pretty little head about it." 这就是硅谷版本的 “不要杞人忧天。”
(Laughter) （笑声）
No one seems to notice that referencing the time horizon is a total non sequitur . 似乎没有人注意到 以时间作为参考系 是得不出合理的结论的。
referencing:v.参考;查阅;给(书等)附参考资料;(reference的现在分词) horizon:n.地平线;(欲望、知识或兴趣的)范围; non sequitur:n.不合逻辑的推论;未根据前提的推理;
If intelligence is just a matter of information processing, and we continue to improve our machines, we will produce some form of superintelligence. 如果说智慧只包括信息处理, 然后我们继续改善这些机器, 那么我们终将生产出超级智能。
And we have no idea how long it will take us to create the conditions to do that safely. 但是,我们无法预估将花费多长时间 来创造实现这一切的安全环境。
Let me say that again. 我再重复一遍。
We have no idea how long it will take us to create the conditions to do that safely. 我们无法预估将花费多长时间 来创造实现这一切的安全环境。
And if you haven't noticed, 50 years is not what it used to be. 你们可能没有注意过,50年的概念已今非昔比。
This is 50 years in months. 这是用月来衡量50年的样子。（每个点表示一个月）
This is how long we've had the iPhone. 红色的点是代表苹果手机出现的时间。
This is how long "The Simpsons " has been on television. 这是《辛普森一家》（动画片）在电视上播出以来的时间。
Simpsons:n.辛普森一家(电影名);
Fifty years is not that much time to meet one of the greatest challenges our species will ever face. 要做好准备面对人类历史上前所未有的挑战, 50年时间并不是很长。
Once again, we seem to be failing to have an appropriate emotional response to what we have every reason to believe is coming. 就像我刚才说的,我们对确定会来临的事情 做出了不合理的回应。
The computer scientist Stuart Russell has a nice analogy here. 计算机科学家斯图尔特·罗素给出了一个极好的类比。
Stuart:斯图亚特王室的; analogy:n.类比;类推;类似;
He said, imagine that we received a message from an alien civilization, which read: "People of Earth, we will arrive on your planet in 50 years. 他说,想象我们从外太空接收到一条讯息, 上面写着: “地球上的人类, 我们将在五十年后到达你们的星球,
Get ready." 做好准备吧。”
And now we're just counting down the months until the mothership lands? 于是我们就开始倒计时,直到它们的“母舰”着陆吗？
mothership:n.航母;
We would feel a little more urgency than we do. 在这种情况下我们会感到更紧迫。
urgency:n.紧急;催促;紧急的事;
Another reason we're told not to worry is that these machines can't help but share our values because they will be literally extensions of ourselves. 另外一个试图安慰我们的理由是, 那些机器必须拥有和我们一样的价值观, 因为它们将会是我们自身的延伸。
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地: extensions:n.扩大;延伸;扩建部分;增建部分;(extension的复数)
They'll be grafted onto our brains, and we'll essentially become their limbic systems. 它们将会被嫁接到我们的大脑上, 我们将会成它们的边缘系统。
grafted:n.枝接纤维;v.[农学]嫁接(graft的过去分词); essentially:adv.本质上;本来; limbic:adj.边的;缘的;
Now take a moment to consider that the safest and only prudent path forward, recommended , is to implant this technology directly into our brains. 现在我们再思考一下 最安全的,也是唯一经慎重考虑后 推荐的发展方向, 是将这项技术直接植入我们大脑。
prudent:adj.谨慎的;精明的;节俭的; recommended:v.推荐;举荐;介绍;劝告;建议;(recommend的过去分词和过去式) implant:vt.种植;灌输;嵌入;n.[医]植入物;植入管;vi.被移植; directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就;
Now, this may in fact be the safest and only prudent path forward, but usually one's safety concerns about a technology have to be pretty much worked out before you stick it inside your head. 这也许确实是最安全的,也是唯一慎重的发展方向, 但通常在我们把它塞进脑袋之前, 会充分考虑这项技术的安全性。
(Laughter) （笑声）
The deeper problem is that building superintelligent AI on its own seems likely to be easier than building superintelligent AI and having the completed neuroscience that allows us to seamlessly integrate our minds with it. 更深一层的问题是:仅仅制造出超级人工智能机器 可能要比 既制造超级人工智能, 又让其拥有能让我们的思想和超级人工智能 无缝对接的完整的神经科学系统要简单很多。
neuroscience:n.神经系统科学(指神经病学,神经化学等); seamlessly:adv.无缝地; integrate:v.成为一体;(使)加入;adj.完全的;
And given that the companies and governments doing this work are likely to perceive themselves as being in a race against all others, given that to win this race is to win the world, provided you don't destroy it in the next moment, then it seems likely that whatever is easier to do will get done first. 而做这些研究的公司或政府, 很可能将彼此视作竞争对手, 因为赢得了比赛就意味着称霸了世界, 前提是不在刚成功后就将其销毁, 所以结论是:简单的选项 一定会被先实现。
perceive:v.注意到;意识到;将…理解为;认为; provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式)
Now, unfortunately , I don't have a solution to this problem, apart from recommending that more of us think about it. 但很遗憾,除了建议更多人去思考这个问题, 我对此并无解决方案。
unfortunately:adv.不幸地; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; recommending:v.推荐,举荐;介绍;劝告;建议;使受欢迎;(recommend的现在分词)
I think we need something like a Manhattan Project on the topic of artificial intelligence. 我觉得在人工智能问题上, 我们需要一个“曼哈顿计划”（二战核武器研究计划）,
Not to build it, because I think we'll inevitably do that, but to understand how to avoid an arms race and to build it in a way that is aligned with our interests. 不是用于讨论如何制造人工智能,因为我们一定会这么做, 而是去避免军备竞赛, 最终以一种有利于我们的方式去打造它。
inevitably:adv.不可避免地;必然地; arms race:n.军备竞赛; aligned:adj.对齐的;均衡的;v.结盟(align的过去式);使成一直线;
When you're talking about superintelligent AI that can make changes to itself, it seems that we only have one chance to get the initial conditions right, and even then we will need to absorb the economic and political consequences of getting them right. 当你在谈论一个可以自我改造的 超级人工智能时, 我们似乎只有一次正确搭建初始系统的机会, 而这个正确的初始系统 需要我们在经济以及政治上做出很大的努力。
initial:adj.最初的; n.(名字的)首字母; v.用姓名的首字母作标记(或签名)于; absorb:v.吸收;使并入;吞并;同化;理解;吸收;耗费;承受; consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
But the moment we admit that information processing is the source of intelligence, that some appropriate computational system is what the basis of intelligence is, 但是当我们承认 信息处理是智慧的源头, 承认一些电脑系统是智能的基础,
computational:adj.计算的;
and we admit that we will improve these systems continuously , and we admit that the horizon of cognition very likely far exceeds what we currently know, then we have to admit that we are in the process of building some sort of god. 承认我们会不断改善这些系统, 承认我们现存的认知远没有达到极限, 将很可能被超越, 我们又必须同时承认 我们在某种意义上正在创造一个新的“上帝”。
continuously:adv.连续不断地; cognition:n.认识;知识;认识能力; exceeds:v.超过;胜过; in the process of:在…的过程中;
Now would be a good time to make sure it's a god we can live with. 现在正是思考人类是否 能与这个“上帝”和睦相处的最佳时机。
Thank you very much. 非常感谢！
(Applause) （掌声）