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RoseGoslinga_2014S-_作物保险，值得播种的好主意_
In Kenya, 1984 is known as the year of the cup, or the goro goro. 在肯亚,人称 1984 年 为杯子之年, 或称咕嚕咕嚕。
The goro goro is a cup used to measure two kilograms of maize flower on the market , and the maize flower is used to make ugali , a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables. 咕嚕咕嚕是一种量杯, 在市场上拿来秤两公斤的玉米粒, 而玉米粒则拿来煮乌伽黎, 一种很像义式玉米粥的饼,与蔬菜同吃。
maize:adj.黄色的,玉米色的;n.玉米;黄色,玉米色; on the market:上市;出售的; ugali:n.玉米(或粟米)粉团;
Both the maize and the vegetables are grown on most Kenyan farms, which means that most families can feed themselves from their own farm. 玉米及蔬菜两者都种在 大部分的肯亚农场上, 也就是说大部分的家庭 都能自给自足。
One goro goro can feed three meals for an average family, and in 1984, the whole harvest could fit in one goro goro. 一杯咕嚕咕嚕能做出三顿餐点 给一个普通人家吃, 而 1984 年,一年的总收获 只能装满一杯咕嚕咕嚕。
It was and still is one of the worst droughts in living memory. 这到现在仍是人们记忆中最惨的旱灾。
droughts:n.[气候]干旱(drought的复数);旱灾灾情;
Now today, I insure farmers against droughts like those in the year of the cup, or to be more specific , I insure the rains. 今天,我提供保险给农民对抗 像杯子之年的旱灾。 或更精确的说,我确保降雨。
insure:v.投保;给…保险;接受投保;承保; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
I come from a family of missionaries who built hospitals in Indonesia , and my father built a psychiatric hospital in Tanzania. 我来自一个传教士家族, 先人曾在印尼盖医院, 我的父亲则在坦尚尼亚盖了间精神病医院。
missionaries:n.传教士;工作人员(missionary的复数); Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国); psychiatric:adj.精神病学的;精神病治疗的;
This is me, age five, in front of that hospital. 这是我,五岁,在那间医院前。
I don't think they thought I'd grow up to sell insurance . (Laughter) 我从不认为他们会想到我长大后 要卖保险。（笑声）
insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的;
So let me tell you how that happened. 所以让我告诉你们这怎么发生的。
In 2008, I was working for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda, and my boss had just been promoted to become the minister . 2008 年,我在 卢安达的农業部工作, 我的顶头上司升了官 成为部长。
Ministry:n.(政府的)部门; promoted:v.促进:促销:提升:(promote的过去分词和过去式) minister:n.部长;大臣;牧师;vi.执行牧师职务;辅助或伺候某人;
She launched an ambitious plan to start a green revolution in her country, and before we knew it, we were importing tons of fertilizer and seed and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer and plant. 她发起一项雄心勃勃的计画 要在她的国家开始绿色革命, 在我们瞭解状况之前,我们就从国外先进口 很多吨的肥料及种子, 并告诉农民如何施肥及种植。
launched:v.发射;发起;开展;开始;(launch的过去式和过去分词) ambitious:adj.野心勃勃的;有雄心的;热望的;炫耀的; revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环; fertilizer:n.[肥料]肥料;受精媒介物;促进发展者; apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
A couple of weeks later, the International Monetary Fund visited us, and asked my minister, "Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?" 几个星期后, 国际货币基金组织来拜访我们, 并问我的部长, 「部长,这是好事,你要幫农民 达成粮食安全,但是如果不下雨怎么办？」
Monetary:adj.货币的;财政的; Fund:n.基金;资金;存款;v.投资;资助; what if:如果…怎么办?
My minister answered proudly and somewhat defiantly , " I am going to pray for rain." 我的部长很自负的回答 也有点挑战的意味, 「我要祈祷降雨。」
proudly:傲慢地 somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微; defiantly:adv.挑战地;对抗地; I am going to:我将要做什么事情
That ended the discussion. 这回答终结了讨论。
On the way back to the ministry in the car, she turned around to me and said, "Rose, you've always been interested in finance . 在回到部里的车上, 她转头向我说 「萝丝,妳一向都对财务很有兴趣。
finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费;
Go find us some insurance." 去替我们找找保险。」
It's been six years since, and last year I was fortunate enough to be part of a team that insured over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda against drought. 六年过了, 去年我很幸运 能成为保险团队的一员, 替在肯亚及卢安达超过十八万五千民农夫 投保旱灾险。
fortunate:adj.幸运的;交好运的;吉利的; insured:n.被保险人;adj.已投保的;v.确保;给…保险(insure的过去式和过去分词);
They owned an average of half an acre and paid on average two Euros in premium . 他们拥有平均约半亩的地, 保费平均在二欧元左右。
Euros:n.欧元;欧洛斯风;带雨东南暴风(euro复数); premium:n.额外费用;奖金;保险费;(商)溢价;adj.高价的;优质的;
It's microinsurance. 这是微型保险。
Now, traditional insurance doesn't work with two to three Euros of premium, because traditional insurance relies on farm visits. 那么,传统保险業不会保 只有二、三欧元保费的保险, 因为传统的保险要靠查勘农场。
traditional:传统的,惯例的, relies:信任;
A farmer here in Germany would be visited for the start of the season, halfway through, and at the end, and again if there was a loss, to estimate the damages. 在德国这里,一位农夫可能会在 农季开始、期中、 及农季结束时被查勘,如果有损失, 还要再来估算赔偿金。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本;
For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa, the maths of doing those visits simply don't add up. 对一个中非的小农, 这些查勘怎么算 都不合算。
small-scale:adj.小规模的; maths:数学(课)
So instead, we rely on technology and data. 所以我们要靠科技及数据代替现场查勘。
rely:vi.依靠;信赖; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
This satellite measures whether there were clouds or not, because think about it: 这个卫星测量 一个地方有没有云, 因为你想一下:
If there are clouds, then you might have some rain, but if there are no clouds, then it's actually impossible for it to rain. 如果有云,大概就会降雨, 但是如果没有云, 那一点下雨的机会都没有。
These images show the onset of the rains this season in Kenya. 这些影像显示
images:n.印象;声誉;形象;画像;雕像;(image的第三人称单数和复数) onset:n.开始,着手;发作;攻击,进攻;
You see that around March 6, the clouds move in and then disappear , and then around the March 11, the clouds really move in. 你看大概在三月六日 云飘进来然后消失, 然后大约在三月十一日 云真的进来了。
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在;
That, and those clouds, were the onset of the rains this year. 那个,及这些云 是本年雨季的开始。
This satellite covers the whole of Africa and goes back as far as 1984, and that's important, because if you know how many times a place has had a drought in the last 30 years, you can make a pretty good estimate what the chances are of drought in the future, and that means that you can put a price tag on the risk of drought. 这个卫星涵盖整个非洲, 并可回溯早至 1984 年, 而这很重要,因为如果你知道 一个地方在过去 30 年 发生过多少次旱灾, 你就可以做个还满准的估算 看看未来干旱的机会有多大。 也就是说你可以标价 在干旱风险上。
as far as:至于…; price tag:n.价格标签;
The data alone isn't enough. 只靠数据是不够的。
We devise agronomic algorithms which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when. 我们还设计了农事演算法, 告诉我们一种作物需要多少降雨及何时降雨。
devise:v.设计; n.[法]遗赠财产的遗嘱(或其中的条款); agronomic:adj.农事的;农艺学的; rainfall:n.降雨;降雨量;
For example, for maize at planting, you need to have two days of rain for farmers to plant, and then it needs to rain once every two weeks for the crop to properly germinate . 举个例,在玉米栽植期 你需要两天的雨 给农夫下种用, 然后要每两个星期下一次雨 让作物好好发芽。
germinate:vt.使发芽;使生长;vi.发芽;生长;
After that, you need rain every three weeks for the crop to form its leaves, whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently , about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob. 之后,你要每三星期下一次雨 让作物长叶子, 在开花期,你需要更频繁的降雨, 大概每十天一次让作物结穗。
whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; frequently:adv.频繁地,经常地;时常,屡次;
At the end of the season, you actually don't want it to rain, because rains then can damage the crop. 在生长期尾声, 你其实不想要下雨 因为雨会破坏作物收成。
Devising such a cover is difficult, but it turned out the real challenge was selling insurance. 要做到这么广的设计的确很难 但结果证明卖保险才是真的挑战。
Devising:v.发明;设计;想出;(devise的现在分词)
We set ourselves a modest target of 500 farmers insured after our first season. 我们给自己制定还算合理的目标, 希望在第一季后有约 500 位农夫投保。
modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的;
After a couple of months' intense marketing, we had signed up the grand total of 185 farmers. 在几个月的强力行销后, 我们签下了总计 185 位农夫。
intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的; grand total:n.总计;共计;
I was disappointed and confounded . 我好失望,非常不解。
confounded:adj.讨厌的,该死的; v.使困惑惊讶; (confound的过去式和过去分词)
Everybody kept telling me that farmers wanted insurance, but our prime customers simply weren't buying. 每个人都说农夫 想要买保险, 但是我们的主要客户就是不买。
prime:adj.主要的; v.极好地; n.初期; v.使准备好;
They were waiting to see what would happen, didn't trust insurance companies, or thought, "I've managed for so many years. 他们在观望会发生什么事, 不信任保险公司, 或是想,「我都撑了这么多年了,
Why would I buy insurance now?" 为什么现在还要我买保险？」
Now many of you know microcredit , the method of providing small loans to poor people pioneered by Muhammad Yunus, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work with the Grameen Bank. 在座很多人都知道微型信贷, 就是提供穷人一小笔贷款的方法, 由穆罕默德·尤纳斯首创, 他得了诺贝尔和平奖, 因他在孟加拉乡村银行的作为。
microcredit:n.微型贷款;微额信贷;
Turns out, selling microcredit isn't the same as selling insurance. 事实证明,卖微型信贷 与卖一般保险截然不同。
For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank, and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money. 在信贷方面,农夫必须得到银行的信任, 如果成功了,银行就会垫款给他。
That's an attractive proposition . 那是很吸引人的提议。
attractive:adj.吸引人的;有魅力的;引人注目的; proposition:n.提议;待处理的问题;任务;(美国)法律修正议案;见解;命题;v.向...提议;
For insurance, the farmer needs to trust the insurance company, and needs to advance the insurance company money. 在保险方面, 还得预付保险公司钱。
It's a very different value proposition. 那是非常不同的价值主张。
And so the uptick of insurance has been slow, with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans taking up insurance in 2012, and half of that number is in one country, 所以保险的涨势很慢 到目前为止只有 4.4% 的非洲人 在 2012 年投保, 而且还有半数是来自同一个国家,
uptick:n.报升(股票成交价格比上一个交易的为高);
South Africa. 南非。
We tried for some years selling insurance directly to farmers, with very high marketing cost and very limited success. 我们试了几年 要直接卖保险给农夫, 行销成本很高, 成功却极为有限。
directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就; limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式)
Then we realized that there were many organizations working with farmers: seed companies, microfinance institutions , mobile phone companies, government agencies . 然后我们才知道已经有很多组织 与农夫合作: 种苗公司、微型金融机构、 手机公司、 政府单位。
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构; microfinance:n.小额信贷;微型金融; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) mobile phone:移动电话 agencies:n.代理;代理处(agency的复数);
They were all providing loans to farmers, and often, just before they'd finalize the loan, the farmer would say, "But what if it doesn't rain? 他们都提供贷款给农民, 而且常常就在他们完成贷款之前, 农民会说, 「可是如果不下雨怎么办？
finalize:v.把(计划、旅行、项目等)最后定下来;定案;
How do you expect me to repay my loan?" 这样我要怎么还贷款？」
repay:v.偿还;报答;报复;
Many of these organizations were taking on the risk themselves, simply hoping that that year, the worst wouldn't happen. 这种组织很多 都会自行吸收风险, 只希望那一年 最坏的情况不会发生。
Most of the organizations, however, were limiting their growth in agriculture. 但是,大部分的组织 都会限制他们在农業部门的成长。
They couldn't take on this kind of risk. 他们无法承担这种风险。
These organizations became our customers, and when combining credit and insurance, interesting things can happen. 这些组织就成了我们的客户, 而且当你把信贷与保险结合, 有趣的事就发生了。
Let me tell you one more story. 让我再说一个故事。
At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya, the rains started, and they started early, and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged, because it usually means that the season is going to be good. 2012 年二月初,在肯亚西部 雨季开始了,而且很早就开始。 当雨季早早开始,农夫都很受鼓舞, 因为这通常意味着这季会有好收成。
So they took out loans and planted. 所以他们开始借贷栽种。
For the next three weeks, there wasn't a single drop of rain, and the crops that had germinated so well shriveled and died. 接下来三星期, 连一滴雨都没有, 原本发芽得很好的作物 枯萎死亡。
germinated:vt.使发芽;使生长;vi.发芽;生长; shriveled:adj.枯萎的;v.(使)枯萎;(使)皱缩;(使)无能为力(shrivel的过去式);
We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution that had provided those loans to about 6,000 farmers in that area, and we called them up and said, "Look, we know about the drought. 我们担保一家微型金融机构的贷款, 而他们已经提供贷款 给那个地区大约六千民农夫, 我们打电话给他们,说: 「听好,我们瞭解旱情。
provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式)
We've got you. 我们会幫你一把。
We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season." 我们会在季末时给你二十万欧元。」
They said, "Wow, that's great, but that'll be late. 他们说:「哇,那很棒, 但是那太迟了。
Could you give us the money now? 你能不能现在就把钱给我们？
Then these farmers can still replant and can get a harvest this season." 这样这些农夫还能及时补植, 这季还有收获。」
replant:vt.改种;移植;移居;
So we convinced our insurance partners, and later that April, these farmers replanted . 所以我们说服我们的保险事業伙伴, 之后那个四月,这些农夫补植。
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式) replanted:vt.改种;移植;移居;
We took the idea of replanting to a seed company and convinced them to price the cost of insurance into every bag of seed, and in every bag, we packed a card that had a number on it, and when the farmers would open the card, they'd text in that number, and that number would actually help us to locate the farmer and allocate them to a satellite pixel . 我们把补植的想法告诉一家种苗公司, 并说服他们把保险的费用 加在每一袋种子上, 在每一袋种子里,我们都包一张小卡, 上面有一个数字, 当农夫打开那张卡片, 他们就把上面的数字传给我们, 那个数字可以实际幫助我们 确定那位农夫的地点, 并把他们写进一个卫星像元里。
replanting:v.移植(replant的现在分词);重栽;重植; allocate:vt.分配;拨出;使坐落于;vi.分配;指定; pixel:n.象素;图像的基本单位;表示显示在萤幕上的一点;
A satellite would then measure the rainfall for the next three weeks, and if it didn't rain, we'd replace their seed. 卫星就可以测量 未来三星期的降雨。 如果没下雨 我们就换新的种子给他们。
(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there! （掌声）等等,我还没讲完！
One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee was Bosco Mwinyi. 第一批这个补植保证的受益人, 其中有一位叫波思科·米尼。
beneficiaries:n.[金融]受益人(beneficiary的复数形式); guarantee:n.保证;担保;保证人;保证书;抵押品;v.保证;担保;
We visited his farm later that August, and I wish I could show you the smile on his face when he showed us his harvest, because it warmed my heart and it made me realize why selling insurance can be a good thing. 之后那年八月我们去查访他的农田, 我真的很想让你们看看他脸上 在展示他的收获给我们看时的笑容。 因为那温暖了我的心, 而且让我瞭解为什么卖保险 是件好事。
But you know, he insisted that we get his whole harvest in the picture, so we had to zoom out a lot. 但你知道,他坚持 要我们把他所有的收成都照在一张相片里, 所以我们得把镜头拉很远。
Insurance secured his harvest that season, and I believe that today, we have all the tools to enable African farmers to take control of their own destiny . 保险确保了他那季的收成, 而我相信今天, 我们拥有一切的方法,能赋予非洲农民 掌握他们自己命运的能力。
enable:v.使能够;使有机会;使成为可能;使可行; destiny:n.命运,定数,天命;
No more years of the cup. 不再有杯子之年。
Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow , the year of the insurance, or the year of the great harvest. 相反的,我很期待,至少一点点 保险之年, 或大丰收之年。
somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地;
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）