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RorySutherland_2011X-_思考角度决定一切_
What you have here is an electronic cigarette. 现在你看到的 是一只电子香烟。
electronic:adj.电子的;电子器件的;电子设备的;
It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago, has given me untold happiness. 自从它一两年前被发明出来。 这支烟带给了我无可言喻的快乐。
untold:adj.数不清的;未说过的;未透露的;无限的;
(Laughter) （观众笑声）
A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine , but there's something much bigger than that. 我想其中一点是由于尼古丁的缘故, 但不只限于此。
nicotine:n.[有化]尼古丁;[有化]烟碱;
Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places, 自从英国开始禁止人们在公共地区吸烟后,
banned:v.明令禁止;取缔;禁止(某人)做某事;(ban的过去分词和过去式)
I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again. 我再也没有享受过聚会了。
(Laughter) (笑声）
And the reason, I only worked out just the other day , which is when you go to a drinks party and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine and you talk endlessly to people, you don't actually want to spend all the time talking. 直到最近我才想到我无法再享受聚会的原因。 因为你去到了聚会后, 站在一角,拿着红酒, 然后与别人闲聊。 不过你并不能一直不停的聊天,
the other day:不久前某一天;几天以前; endlessly:adv.不断地;无穷尽地;
It's really, really tiring. 那样是很很累人的。
Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts. 有时你只想静静的呆在一旁,独自的思考。
Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window. 有时你只想站在角落凝视窗外。
stare:v.凝视;盯着看;注视;n.凝视;
Now the problem is, when you can't smoke, if you stand and stare out of the window on your own, you're an antisocial , friendless idiot . 问题是,当你不能吸烟时, 一个人呆在角落望着窗外 意味着你是一个孤僻没有朋友的傻子。
antisocial:adj.反社会的;扰乱社会的;不爱交际的;n.违背社会公德的人;反社会者; friendless:adj.没有朋友的;无依无靠的;孤单的; idiot:n.笨蛋,傻瓜;白痴;
(Laughter) （笑声）
If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette, you're a fucking philosopher . 但如果你只身伫立于角落凝望窗外,并且拿着一只香烟, 那意味着你是一个TMD思想家。
philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人;
(Laughter) （观众笑声）
(Applause) （掌声）
So the power of reframing things cannot be overstated . 所以,再构造事情的能力 是极其重要的。
reframing:n.重新构造;v.再构造;给…装上新框架(reframe的ing形式); overstated:v.夸大;夸张;言过其实;(overstate的过去分词和过去式)
What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity, but one of them makes you feel great and the other one, with just a small change of posture , makes you feel terrible. 同样的事件,同样的活动, 只改变其中一小点,一个活动可以让你感觉很棒 而另一个可以让你感觉 很糟糕。
small change:n.小面额硬币;(非正式)无关紧要的人(或事); posture:n.姿势;态度;看法;立场;处理方式;v.故作姿态;装样子
And I think one of the problems with classical economics is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality. 我认为古典经济学中的一个问题 就在于它太专致于现实。
classical:adj.古典的;经典的;传统的;第一流的;n.古典音乐; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; preoccupied:adj.心事重重; v.使日夜思考; (preoccupy的过去分词和过去式)
And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness. 而现实并不是一个可以领导人们走向快乐的好指导。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地;
Why, for example, are pensioners much happier than the young unemployed ? 为什么？举例来说吧, 退休的人和年轻的无业人士相比 是不是更快乐点？
pensioners:n.领退休金者(pensioner的复数); unemployed:adj.失业的;下岗的;n.(集合词)失业者;
Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life. 两者都处于相同的地位,
You both have too much time on your hands and not much money. 两者都属于有时间没闲钱的人。
But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy, whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed . 但是据调查显示退行的人要快乐的多, 相反,失业人士却非常的情绪低落。
reportedly:adv.据报道;据传闻; whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地; depressed:adj.沮丧的; v.使抑郁; (depress的过去式和过去分词)
The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners, whereas the young unemployed feel it's been thrust upon them. 原因就在于, 退休的人相信他们自己选择了退休, 而失业的人 却认为他们是没有选择的被迫失业。
thrust:v.刺;塞;冲;挤;n.刺;插;重点;猛推;
In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly, because they've re-branded unemployment . 在英格兰,社会中上阶层的人已经完美的解决了这个问题, 他们重新包装了失业。
upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
If you're an upper-middle-class English person, you call unemployment "a year off." 如果你是一个中上阶级的英国人, 你会用“年休”代替失业。
(Laughter) （笑声）
And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester is really quite embarrassing , but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand is really viewed as quite an accomplishment . 那是因为如果你有一个儿子在曼彻斯特失业 还是蛮丢脸的, 但如果你的儿子在泰国失业 却是一种另类的成就。
embarrassing:adj.令人尴尬的; v.使尴尬; (embarrass的现在分词) Thailand:n.泰国(东南亚国家名); accomplishment:n.成就;完成;技艺,技能;
(Laughter) （笑声）
But actually the power to re-brand things -- to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things don't actually much depend on what they really are, but on how we view them -- 但其实重新包装事情的力量 -- 理解到其实我们的经历,代价以及其他 并不在于它们的本身, 而在于我们如何看它们 --
re-brand:vt.给…一个新名称,采用新名称,重塑;
I genuinely think can't be overstated. 我真的认为它不能更加重要。
genuinely:adv.真诚地;诚实地;
There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to where you put two dogs in a box and the box has an electric floor. Daniel Pink 提到一个实验: 将两条狗放入有着 电子地板的箱子里。
refers:v.谈及;提到;提及;涉及;描述;(refer的第三人称单数) electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的;
Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor, which pains the dogs. 每过一会儿地板上会有电流通过, 而狗会感觉疼痛。
Every now and then:不时地;常常; electric shock:n.触电;电击;电休克; applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式)
The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box. 唯一的不同点在于,其中的一个条狗在它那二分之一个箱子中有一个小小的按钮。
And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops. 每当它按下按钮,电流便会停止。
nuzzles:vt.用鼻紧挨,用鼻爱抚;紧贴某人;vi.用鼻擦;舒服地躺著;
The other dog doesn't have the button. 另外一个狗没有这样一个按钮。
It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box, but it has no control over the circumstances . 它所受到的疼痛和另外一条狗是一样的, 但它对于它的环境没有控制能力。
exposed:adj.无遮蔽的; v.暴露; (expose的过去分词和过去式) circumstances:n.情况;环境;情形;(circumstance的复数)
Generally the first dog can be relatively content . 一般来说第一条狗感觉还算满意,
Generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; content:n.内容,目录;满足;容量;adj.满意的;vt.使满足;
The second dog lapses into complete depression . 但第二条狗则陷入完全的萎靡不振。
lapses:n.失效;流逝;过失;vi.失效;流逝;背离,失检;陷入; depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness than the sense of control we feel over our lives. 我们生活中的一切可能对于我们自己的快乐没有多大的关联, 而我们感觉到我们对于现实的控制力有。
It's an interesting question. 这个问题很有意思。
We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world is about the level of taxation . 我们问一个问题 -- 西方国家大部分的争议都是 关于税收的程度。
debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; taxation:n.课税,征税;税款;
But I think there's another debate to be asked, which is the level of control we have over our tax money. 但我觉得另外一个争论可以被提出, 那就是我们对于我们的税务的控制度。
That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse . 在一种情况下需要我们花十英镑可能是一种诅咒,
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; curse:n.诅咒;咒骂;v.诅咒;咒骂;
What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome. 但在另一种情况下它又可能被欢迎。
You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health and you're merely feeling a mug . 你知道吗,当你为医疗交了2万英镑的税, 你可能觉得被打劫了。
merely:adv.仅仅,只不过;只是; mug:n.指圆筒形;啤酒杯;(非正式)傻瓜;(非正式)脸;v.抢劫;做鬼脸;
Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward and you're called a philanthropist . 但当你为捐助一个医院病房而交了2万英镑, 你会被称为慈善家。
endow:vt.赋予;捐赠;天生具有; ward:n.病房; v.防止; philanthropist:n.慈善家,博爱主义者;乐善好施的人;
I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax. 我可能在一个错的国家里提到纳税的意愿。
willingness:n.乐意;心甘情愿;自动自发;
(Laughter) （笑声）
So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters. 那我换一个例子,看看你们是如何定义重要的事情的。
frame:n.框架; v.设计; adj.有木架的;
Do you call it the bailout of Greece or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece? 你们称它为对于希腊的紧急援助, 还是对于一帮愚蠢到贷款给希腊的银行的紧急援助？
bailout:n.紧急救助;跳伞;
Because they are actually the same thing. 因为它们其实讲的是同一件事情。
What you call them actually affects how you react to them, viscerally and morally . 你称呼它们的方法会 影响到你们感情上以及伦理上的反应。
react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; viscerally:内脏的;位于内脏的;影响内脏的; morally:adv.道德上;有道德地;确实地;
I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest. 说实话,我觉得心理价值非常重要。
psychological:adj.心理的;心理学的;精神上的;
One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater, who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London, believes that we should spend far less time looking into humanity's hidden depths and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows. 我最好的朋友之一,一个名叫 Nick Chater 的教授, 他是伦敦的决策学教授, 他觉得我们与其花费时间来观察 人性隐藏的深度, 不如花更多的时间来探索它隐藏的表性。
exploring:v.探索:考察:探查;(explore的现在分词)
I think that's true actually. 我觉得这是对的。
I think impressions have an insane effect on what we think and what we do. 我觉得印象对我们的思想以及活动 有着很大的影响。
impressions:n.印象;观感;(impression的复数) insane:adj.疯狂的;精神病的;极愚蠢的;
But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology . 但我们并没有一个很好的人类心理学的典型。
psychology:n.心理学;心理状态;
At least pre-Kahneman perhaps, we didn't have a really good model of human psychology to put alongside models of engineering , of neoclassical economics. 至少在卡尔曼(Kahneman) 之前, 我们没有一个很好的,可以和工程以及新古典主义 经济学的模型相提并论的模型。
engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词) neoclassical:adj.新古典主义的;
So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model. 所以相信心理解决方式的人们没有一个模型。
We didn't have a framework. 我们没有一个框架。
This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls "a latticework on which to hang your ideas." 这就是沃伦·巴菲特的生意合作伙伴查理·芒格所称的 “一个用来悬挂你的想法的格子框架。”
Warren:n.养兔场;大杂院;拥挤的地区; latticework:n.格子;格子细工;
Engineers, economists, classical economists all had a very, very robust existing latticework on which practically every idea could be hung. 工程师,经济学家,古典主义经济学家, 他们都有非常结实的格子框架 来悬挂他们每一个想法。
robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的; practically:adv.实际地;几乎;事实上;
We merely have a collection of random individual insights without an overall model. 我们却没有一个全面性的模型,只有一堆 随机的个人想法。
random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地; individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数); overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
And what that means is that in looking at solutions, we've probably given too much priority to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions, and not nearly enough to the psychological ones. 这 意味着,在寻找答案的时候, 我们可能给了,我所谓的技术性的工程方式, 牛顿式的解决方式太多的重要性, 而忘记了心理上的解决方式。
priority:n.优先;优先权;[数]优先次序;优先考虑的事; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
You know my example of the Eurostar. 你知道我的欧洲之星的例子。
Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time between Paris and London by about 40 minutes. 为了减少40分钟的从巴黎到伦敦的旅程, 我们花了6百万磅。
journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains, which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey, but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more. 而在铁路上设置无线联网只需花这个钱的0.01%。 虽然它不会减少旅途的时间, 但它会使这个旅途更加愉快和有用。
duration:n.持续时间;期间; improved:adj.改良的:v.改进:改善(improve的过去分词和过去式) enjoyment:n.享受;乐趣;享有;
For maybe 10 percent of the money, you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers. 而用这份钱的百分之十, 你可以让世界顶级的男性和女性超模 在走廊上发送波得路堡红葡萄酒给旅客们。
female:adj.女性的;雌性的;柔弱的,柔和的;n.女人;[动]雌性动物; supermodels:n.超级名模;(supermodel的复数) Chateau:n.(法国封建时代的)城堡;(尤指法国的)别墅;
You'd still have five billion pounds in change, and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down. 你口袋中仍然会有5百万磅, 而人们会希望这趟列车开的稍微慢些。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Why were we not given the chance to solve that problem psychologically ? 为什么我们不能有 用心理方式解决那个问题的机会？
psychologically:adv.心理上地;心理学地;
I think it's because there's an imbalance , an asymmetry , in the way we treat creative , emotionally-driven psychological ideas versus the way we treat rational , numerical , spreadsheet-driven ideas. 我觉得那是因为在我们对待创造性的, 情感性的心理想法和我们对待理性的,数字的,数据的想法 有着很大的差距。
imbalance:n.不平衡;不安定; asymmetry:n.不对称; in the way:妨碍;挡道; treat:v.治疗;处理;招待;款待;n.款待;乐事;乐趣; creative:adj.创造性的; versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗; rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的; numerical:adj.数值的;数字的;用数字表示的(等于numeric);
If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly , you have to share all your ideas for approval with people much more rational than you. 如果你是一个有创造性的人,很显然的, 你需要和其他比你更加理性的人 分享以及寻求意见。
rightly:adv.正确地;恰当地;公正地;合适地; approval:n.批准;认可;赞成;
You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis , a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth. 你需要通过一个成本效益分析, 一个有效的投资报酬率的测验。
cost-benefit:adj.成本效益的; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; feasibility:n.可行性;可能性;
And I think that's probably right. 我觉得这是合理的。
But this does not apply the other way around. 但这反过来却并不成立。
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
People who have an existing framework, an economic framework, an engineering framework, feel that actually logic is its own answer. 很多有着现存的框架的人, 比如经济或者工程的框架, 认为那逻辑便是答案。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up, but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people to see if they can come up with something better." 他们不说的是: “这些数学感觉是对的, 但在我提议这个想法之前,让我把它给一些疯狂的人看下, 看看他们能不能想出更好的东西。”
come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
And so we, artificially I think, prioritize what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas. 所以我们,我觉得是有意识的, 相对 于心理想法,更加看重于所谓的机械化的想法。
artificially:adv.人工地;人为地;不自然地; prioritize:v.按重要性排列;划分优先顺序;优先处理; mechanistic:adj.机械论的;机械学的;
An example of a great psychological idea: 一个很好的心理想法的例子:
The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains, they put dot matrix display board on the platforms . 伦敦地铁做到的,以花费的英镑来说,最好的旅客满意度提高的服务 不是增加了铁路的数量或铁路的次数, 而是他们所安置在站台上的矩阵显示板。
improvement:n.改进,改善; passenger:n.旅客;乘客;白吃饭的人;闲散人员; satisfaction:n.满意,满足;赔偿;乐事;赎罪; frequency:n.频率;发生率;重复率;频繁; matrix:n.[数]矩阵;模型;[生物][地质]基质;母体;子宫;[地质]脉石; display:n.显示;炫耀;vt.显示;表现;陈列;vi.[动]作炫耀行为;adj.展览的;陈列用的; platforms:n.平台; v.把…放在台上;
Because the nature of a wait is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration, but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait. 因为等待的质量 不仅仅在于它的时间长短, 而在于等待期间对无法把握的时间的焦虑。
dependent on:依赖于;依靠; on the level:诚实的;可靠的;坦率地;老实说; uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock is less frustrating and irritating than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?" 在标写着“倒数7分钟”的倒数时钟旁等待铁路 要比茫然的等待4分钟 并想着 这个该死的地铁到底什么时候才到？ 感觉好的多。
countdown:n.倒数计秒; frustrating:adj.令人沮丧的;v.使沮丧;(frustrate的现在分词) irritating:adj.惹人生气的;恼人的;使人生气的;v.使烦恼;刺激;(irritate的现在分词) damn:v.谴责;该死;n.诅咒;adj.可恶的;
Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea. 这是一个在韩国应用的心理解决方式的很好的例子。
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; deployed:v.部署(deploy的过去式);展开;
Red traffic lights have a countdown delay. 红色的交通灯有一个倒计时显示。
It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments. 在实验中以证明它可以减少事故发生率。
Why? Because road rage , impatience and general irritation are massively reduced when you can actually see the time you have to wait. 为什么？因为公路暴力,焦躁以及一般的不耐 在你可以确实的看到需要等待的时间后会很大的减少。
road rage:n.公路暴怒(司机之间因驾驶问题而大动肝火); impatience:n.急躁;无耐心; irritation:n.刺激;激怒,恼怒,生气;兴奋;令人恼火的事; massively:adv.大量地;沉重地;庄严地;
In China, not really understanding the principle behind this, they applied the same principle to green traffic lights. 在中国它们也同样为绿色的交通灯设置了这样设施, 我并不明白这样做的原理。
principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Which isn't a great idea. 这并不是一个好的主意。
You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it. 你在200米开外,你发现绿灯只有5秒钟时间,你决定冲刺。
(Laughter) （笑声）
The Koreans, very assiduously , did test both. 韩国人测试了这两种方式。
assiduously:adv.刻苦地;勤勉地;
The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights; it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights. 事故发生率在给红灯配置倒计时后减少, 而在给绿灯配置倒计时后会增加。
This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making, is the consideration of these three things. 在做出各种决定之前 这三个事情是我希望看到发生的。
consideration:n.顾及;报酬;斟酌;仔细考虑;
I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other. 我并不是说其中的一个应该特别重要
primacy:n.首位;卓越;大主教的职位;
I'm merely saying that when you solve problems, you should look at all three of these equally and you should seek as far as possible to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle. 我只是说,当你在解决问题的时候, 你应该同时考虑这三项, 并在这三项居中找到 最好的解决方式。
seek:v.寻求;寻找;谋求; as far as:至于…; sweet spot:n.(球拍或球棒的)最佳击球点;最有效点;所有特点的完美组合;
If you actually look at a great business, you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play. 当你看一个成功的公司, 你总是会看到这三项的影子。
Really, really successful businesses -- 非常,非常成功的公司 --
Google is great, great technological success, but it's also based on a very good psychological insight: 比如在技術上非常,非常成功的谷歌, 都会基于非常好的心理想法:
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的;
People believe something that only does one thing is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else. 大家都相信当一个人专注的做一个事情的时候,他会,在这一件事情上, 比其他做此事以及其他的事情的人要做的好、
It's an innate thing called goal dilution . 这个很自然的想法叫做目标分散。
innate:adj.先天的;固有的;与生俱来的; dilution:n.稀释,冲淡;稀释法;冲淡物;
Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this. Ayelet Fishbach 为此写了一篇论文。
Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less , was trying to be a portal . 每一个当时在谷歌的人 都在尝试着无所不为。
more or less:或多或少; portal:n.大门,入口;
Yes, there's a search function, but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news. 是的,他们有一个搜索功能, 但也有天气,体育分数,小段时事。
Google understood that if you're just a search engine , people assume you're a very, very good search engine. 谷歌知道如果你只是一个搜索引擎, 人们会认为你是一个非常,非常好的搜索引擎。
search engine:n.(计算机)搜索引擎; assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现;
All of you know this actually from when you go in to buy a television. 当你们去买一个电视的时候 你们都会想到这点。
And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs you can see are these rather despised things called combined TV and DVD players. 在一排液晶电视旁边的灰暗的另一个角落, 你可以看到一些无人问津的同时有着电视和DVD功能的机器。
shabbier:破旧的;卑劣的(shabby的比较级); despised:v.鄙视;蔑视;看不起;(despise的过去分词和过去式)
And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things, but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck. 我们完全不知道这些东西的质量, 但我们会不屑的看着它们并说:“厄,
whatsoever:pron.无论什么;
It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player." 它应该比单独的电视或DVD机都要差一些。”
crap:n.废话;废物;屎;拉屎;vi.掷骰子;拉屎; telly:n.电视机;电视节目;
So we walk out of the shops with one of each. 所以我们每个都会买一个。
Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one. 谷歌在心理方面和它的技术同样的成功。
I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems that we didn't even realize were problems at all. 我提议我们也可以用心理学去解决一些 我们本来都不认为是问题的问题。
propose:v.建议;提议;求婚;打算;
This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics . 以下是为让人们服用抗生素的建议。
antibiotics:n.抗菌素;抗生素(如青霉素);(antibiotic的复数)
Don't give them 24 white pills . 不要给他们24个白色的药丸。
pills:n.药丸; v.起球; (pill的第三人称单数和复数)
Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones and tell them to take the white pills first and then take the blue ones. 给他们18个白色药丸和6个蓝色的药丸, 然后告诉他们先吃白色的药丸,再吃蓝色的药丸。
It's called chunking . 这招叫组块。
chunking:n.组块;意元集组;
The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle. 人们服用完的可能性会大大的提高, 当中间有一个类似于里程碑的柬西。
likelihood:n.可能性,可能; milestone:n.里程碑,划时代的事件;
One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics is it fails to understand that what something is, whether it's retirement , unemployment, cost, is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning. 我认为经济学最大的错误之一 便是没有去真正地理解类似于 退休,失业,代价 这样的东西不只是它的量的应变量,也是它的意义的应变量。
retirement:n.退休;退职;退休年龄;退休生活;
This is a toll crossing in Britain. 这是一个英国的收费站。
toll:n.伤亡人数; v.(缓慢而有规律地)敲(钟); (尤指)鸣(丧钟);
Quite often queues happen at the tolls . 收费站前很经常会排起长队。
queues:n.[数]队列;行列(queue的复数形式);v.[数]排队(queue的第三人称单数); tolls:n.通行费; vt.征收通行税;
Sometimes you get very, very severe queues. 有些时候队会非常,非常的长。
severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
You could apply the same principle actually, if you like, to the security lanes in airports . 同样的原理可以被运用到 机场的安检线。
lanes:n.线路,跑道(lane复数形式); airports:n.[航]机场;[航]航空港(airport的复数形式);
What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money to cross the bridge , but go through a lane that's an express lane ? 当你可以在付两倍的钱后通过一个快速的车道后 会发生些什么？
cross the bridge:过桥;走过桥;穿过大桥; express lane:n.快车道;(购物场所收银结账的)快速通道;
It's not an unreasonable thing to do. It's an economically efficient thing to do. 它不是一个不合理的事情,也是一个有效率的事情。
unreasonable:adj.不合理的;过度的;不切实际的;非理智的; economically:adv.经济地;在经济上;节俭地; efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的;
Time means more to some people than others. 对于一些人来说,它们的时间比其他的人重要。
If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview , you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane . 如果你在等着参加一个工作面试, 你毫无疑问的会付双倍的钱而走快捷车道。
interview:n.接见,采访;面试,面谈;v.采访;接见;对…进行面谈; patently:adv.明显地;公然地;明白地; fast lane:n.(高速公路或州际公路上的)快车道;
If you're on the way to visit your mother in-law , you'd probably prefer to stay on the left. 如果你正在去拜访你的岳母, 你或许会偏向在左边等待。
in-law:n.姻亲; prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升;
The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution, people hate it. 唯一的问题是,当你启用这个有效率的方式, 人们会讨厌它。
Because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge in order to maximize your revenue , and "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your imcompetence?" 因为他们觉得你有意的在桥前造成堵塞 来增加收入, 以及 “为什么我们需要为你们的无能付钱？”
deliberately:adv.故意地;谨慎地;慎重地; maximize:vt.取…最大值;对…极为重视;vi.尽可能广义地解释;达到最大值; revenue:n.收益;营业额;税务署; subsidize:vt.资助;给与奖助金;向…行贿;
On the other hand , change the frame slightly and create charitable yield management , so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company, it goes to charity , and the mental willingness to pay completely changes. 但换个角度来说,把这个想法的框架做微小的改变, 使它变成慈善的收入, 使这些多余的钱不会进入建桥的公司的口袋而被用于慈善事业, 人们的想法会完全的不一样。
On the other hand:另一方面; slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地; charitable:adj.慈善事业的;慷慨的,仁慈的;宽恕的; yield:n.产量;产出;利润;v.屈服;让步;放弃;提供; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段; charity:n.慈善;施舍;慈善团体;宽容;施舍物; mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者;
You have a relatively economically efficient solution, but one that actually meets with public approval and even a small degree of affection, rather than being seen as bastardy. 你会有一个有效率的解决方式, 并且它会被公众批准 甚至赞扬, 而不是批判。
So where economists make the fundamental mistake is they think that money is money. 当经济学家做出错误的决定时, 他们只想到钱和利润。
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
Actually my pain experienced in paying five pounds is not just proportionate to the amount, but where I think that money is going. 但实际上我对多付5磅的意见并不是 在于这个数额的数量, 而是这笔钱的去处。
proportionate:adj.成比例的;相称的;适当的;vt.使成比例;使相称;
And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy . 而我认为明白这个会对税收政策造成巨大的变化。
revolutionize:vt.发动革命;彻底改革;宣传革命;vi.革命化;从事革命; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
It could revolutionize the public services. 它也可以改变公众服务们。
It could really change things quite significantly . 它真的可以大幅度的改变很多事情。
significantly:adv.意味深长地;值得注目地;
Here's a guy you all need to study. 这是一个你们都需要研究的人。
He's an Austrian school economist who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna. 他是一个在20世纪前半叶非常活跃的 奥地利学派经济学家。
What was interesting about the Austrian school is they actually grew up alongside Freud . 关于奥地利学派的一个很有意思的事情便是 他们成长与弗洛伊德的时代。
Freud:n.佛洛伊德(1856-1939,奥地利心理分析学家及精神病学家);
And so they're predominantly interested in psychology. 所以他们对心理学非常感兴趣。
predominantly:adv.主要地;显著地;
They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology, which is a prior discipline to the study of economics. 他们认为一门叫做“人类行为学”的学科 必须被作为经济学的首要学科。
discipline:n.纪律;训练;自制力;风纪;v.训练;管教;惩罚;处罚;
Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision making. 人类行为学学习人类的选择,行动以及做出决定的方式。
I think they're right. 我觉得他们是对的。
I think the danger we have in today's world is we have the study of economics considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology. 我觉得今天的世界很危险的 把经济学放于 人类心理学的学科之上。
But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral , 但就像查理。芒格说的:“如果经济学不是行为上的研究,
behavioral:adj.行为的;
I don't know what the hell is." 我就不知道它到底是什么了。”
Von Mises , interestingly , believes economics is just a subset of psychology. 馮·米塞斯相信经济学只是心理学的一部分。
Mises:n.米泽斯(奥地利经济学家); interestingly:adv.有趣地; subset:n.[数]子集;子设备;小团体;
I think he just refers to economics as "the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity ." 我记得他称经济学是 “在资源有限的情况研究人类行为学。”
scarcity:n.不足;缺乏;
But von Mises, among many other things, 我觉得馮·米塞斯
I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value and the fact that we should actually treat it as being absolutely equivalent to any other kind of value. 这个比拟最好的解释了 市场学和感知价值的意义, 以及我们必须将它们提到和任何其他的价值同等 的地位的事实。
analogy:n.类比;类推;类似; justification:n.理由;辩护;认为有理,认为正当;释罪; perceived:v.注意到;意识到;将…视为;认为;(perceive的过去式和过去分词) equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
We tend to, all of us -- even those of us who work in marketing -- to think of value in two ways. 我们每个人 - 包括在市场销售工作的 -- 都会从两个方面考虑价值的意义。
There's the real value, which is when you make something in a factory and provide a service, and then there's a kind of dubious value, which you create by changing the way people look at things. 一方面有真正价值, 它是当你在工厂生产的东西或是提供的服务。 也有另外一种比较模糊的价值, 它是当你改变了人们看待某件事物的看法。
dubious:adj.可疑的;暧昧的;无把握的;半信半疑的;
Von Mises completely rejected this distinction . 馮·米塞斯完全的唾弃了这种分别。
rejected:adj.被拒的;不合格的;v.拒绝,驳回;(reject的过去式和过去分词) distinction:n.区别;区分;差别;卓越;
And he used this following analogy. 而他用了一下的比拟。
He referred actually to strange economists called the French Physiocrats, who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land. 他提到了一帮叫法国重农主义者的奇异的经济学家, 他们相信真正价值是有土地而来的。
referred:v.提到;引用;认为;指示;涉及;(refer的过去式和过去分词) extracted:adj.萃取的;引出的;v.提取(extract的过去式及过去分词);
So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer, you created true value. 如果你是一个牧羊人,采石工或者农夫, 你创造着真正地价值。
shepherd:vt.牧羊;带领;指导;看管;n.牧羊人;牧师;指导者;
If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd and charged a premium for converting it into a hat, you weren't actually creating value, you were exploiting the shepherd. 但如果你从牧羊人那里买了羊毛, 并再卖出以羊毛制造的帽子时要求额外的费用, 你并没有创造价值, 你只是在剥削那牧羊人。
wool:n.毛;毛线;毛料;毛织物; premium:n.额外费用;奖金;保险费;(商)溢价;adj.高价的;优质的; converting:v.(使)转变,转换,转化;可转变为;归附;(convert的现在分词) exploiting:v.利用…为自己谋利;剥削;压榨;运用;发挥;(exploit的现在分词)
Now von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake with regard to advertising and marketing. 馮·米塞斯说现代经济学家在广告和市场销售方面 犯了同样的错误。
advertising:n.做广告;广告业;广告活动;v.做广告;(advertise的现在分词)
He says, if you run a restaurant, there is no healthy distinction to be made between the value you create by cooking the food and the value you create by sweeping the floor. 他说,如果你开了一家餐厅, 在你的烹饪的食物所创造的价值和 你打扫地板所创造的价值之间 并没有健康的区别。
sweeping:n.扫除; adj.影响广泛的; v.打扫; (sweep的现在分词)
One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product -- the thing we think we're paying for -- the other one creates a context within which we can enjoy and appreciate that product. 其中一个或许创造了主要的产物 -- 我们所为之付钱的 -- 另外一个创造了一个 我们可以享受和赞美产物的环境。
appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
And the idea that one of them should actually have priority over the other is fundamentally wrong. 而其中一个实际上比另外一个更重要的想法 从根本上就是错误的。
fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地
Try this quick thought experiment. 试试看这个快速的思想实验。
Imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food, but actually where the restaurant smells of sewage and there's human feces on the floor. 设想一个提供米其林星级的食物的餐厅, 但餐厅本身闻起来像下水道 并有排泄物在地板上。
sewage:n.污水;下水道;污物; feces:n.排泄物;渣滓;
The best thing you can do there to create value is not actually to improve the food still further, it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor. 在此你可以做的最好的来创造价值的 并不是考虑食物上的更多的进步, 而是去除异味和清理地板。
And it's vital we understand this. 我们对它的理解非常重要。
vital:adj.至关重要的;生死攸关的;有活力的;
If that seems like some strange, abstruse thing, in the U.K., the post office had a 98 percent success rate at delivering first-class mail the next day. 如果它看起来像一个非常奇特,难解的事情, 在英国,邮局对于在隔天送递头等信件 有着98%的成功率。
abstruse:adj.深奥的;难懂的; post office:邮局 first-class:adj.优秀的;第一流的;adv.优秀地;最好地;第一流地;
They decided this wasn't good enough and they wanted to get it up to 99. 他们觉得这还不够好, 并且尝试将它提升到99%。
The effort to do that almost broke the organization . 而试图达到这个目标的尝试几乎分裂了这个公司。
organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
If at the same time you'd gone and asked people, "What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?" 而同时如果你问人们, “头等信件有多少在隔日便会到达？”
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成;
the average answer, or the modal answer would have been 50 to 60 percent. 大部分人会回答大概50%到60%之间。
modal:adj.模式的;情态的;形式的;n.莫代尔(一种新型纤维素纤维);
Now if your perception is much worse than your reality, what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality? 如果公众看法比实际差太多, 你去尝试改变实际有什么用？
perception:n.感知;知觉;看法;洞察力;
That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks . 它就像一个很臭的餐厅试图提升食物质量。
stinks:v.令人厌恶;发臭味(stink的第三人称单数);n.恶臭;讨厌的人(stink的复数);
What you need to do is first of all tell people that 98 percent of mail gets there the next day, first-class mail. 你需要做的第一件事情 就是告诉大家 98%的邮件会在隔天到达。
first of all:adv.首先;
That's pretty good. 这样就很好。
I would argue, in Britain there's a much better frame of reference , which is to tell people that more first-class mail arrives the next day in the U.K. than in Germany. 我甚至会主张,在英国你可以用一个更好的框架, 那边是告诉人们 相比德国,更多的头等信件会在 隔天到达。
frame of reference:n.(影响人理解和判断事物的)信仰;
Because generally in Britain if you want to make us happy about something, just tell us we do it better than the Germans. 因为一般来说在英国,如果你想让我们开心, 只要告诉我们我们比德国人做的更好。
(Laughter) （笑声）
(Applause) （掌声）
Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value and therefore the actual value is completely tranformed. 选择对的思想框架和感知价值, 实际价值便会完全的被改变。
It has to be said of the Germans that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job of creating a united Europe. 我们必须承认德国人 和法国人正在为一个团结的欧洲 做出很大的努力。
united:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
The only thing they don't expect is they're uniting Europe through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans. 而他们唯一没有想到的便是他们基於对法国人和德国人的 轻微敌意上团结整个欧洲。
uniting:v.(为某事)联合,联手,团结;联合;统一;(unite的现在分词) mild:adj.温和的; n.(英国的一种)淡味麦芽啤酒; hatred:n.仇恨;憎恨;厌恶;
But I'm British, that's the way we like it. 但我是英国人,我觉得这样挺好。
What you also notice is that in any case our perception is leaky . 你可以发现在任何角度下我们的知觉都是有空隙的。
in any case:无论如何; leaky:adj.漏的;有漏洞的;
We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food and the environment in which we consume it. 我们不能区分食物的质量以及 我们在享受食物的环境。
consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁;
All of you will have seen this phenomenon if you have your car washed or valeted . 每个洗过车的人 都会观察到这样的现象。
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物); valeted:伺候;服侍:;
When you drive away , your car feels as if it drives better. 当你开走时,你的车开起来感觉好一些。
drive away:赶走
And the reason for this, unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of, is because perception is in any case leaky. 而原因便是, 除非我的汽车清洗员偷偷的换了机油 并做了一些我没有付费以及我不知道的工作, 那便是因为我们的知觉都是有漏洞的。
mysteriously:adv.神秘地;故弄玄虚地;难以理解地; performing:adj.表演的;演奏的;v.做;执行;演出;运转(perform的现在分词) unaware:adj.不知道的,无意的;未察觉到的;adv.意外地;不知不觉地;
Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain than analgesics that are not branded. 名牌的止痛剂相对于没有牌的止痛剂有更好的 减除疼痛的效果。
Analgesics:n.[药]镇痛药;止痛剂(analgesic的复数形式); branded:adj.名牌商标的; v.铭刻; (brand的过去式和过去分词); effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象;
I don't just mean through reported pain reduction , actual measured pain reduction. 我并不只是说病患报告的疼痛消除, 而也是实际上测量到的疼痛消除。
reduction:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图; measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式)
And so perception actually is leaky in any case. 所以知觉在任何时候都是有漏洞的。
So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect, you can damage the other. 所以如果你在做一件从一方面的知觉来看是坏的的事情, 你也可以对另外一面造成伤害。
perceptually:感知;
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
(Applause) （掌声）