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RobertWright_2006-_谈乐观主义_
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| I've got apparently 18 minutes to convince you that history has a direction -- an arrow. |
我大概有18分钟的时间 来说服你们历史发展是有方向的---如一个箭头。 |
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apparently:adv.显然地;似乎,表面上; convince:v.使确信;使相信;说服,劝说;
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| That in some fundamental sense, it's good; that the arrow points to something positive . |
本质上来说,这是个好事。 箭头指向着一些积极的事物。 |
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fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
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| Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk -- |
当初TED来找我做个乐观的演讲 |
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approached:v.走近;临近;探讨;建议;(approach的过去分词和过去式) upbeat:n.兴旺;上升;弱拍;adj.乐观的;上升的;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| - that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting . |
- 那时穆斯林还没有在世界各地引发暴乱 |
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triggered:v.发动;引起;触发;开动;起动;(trigger的过去分词和过去式) global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; rioting:v.发生骚乱;闹事;(riot的现在分词)
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| It was before the avian flu had reached Europe. |
禽流感还未登录欧洲 |
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avian:adj.鸟的;鸟类的;n.鸟;
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| It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election, eliciting various counter-measures by Israel . |
哈马斯还未赢得巴勒斯坦大选 以色列也还未对之采取一系列对抗政策 |
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Palestinian:adj.巴勒斯坦的;巴勒斯坦人的;n.巴勒斯坦人; eliciting:v.诱发,刺激;引起(elicit的现在分词); counter-measures:对策; Israel:n.以色列(亚洲国家);犹太人,以色列人;
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| And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk that even as I was giving the upbeat talk, the apocalypse would be unfolding -- |
说实话,如果当初接受邀请时 我能预见知道现在 老天还没打开启示录的话 |
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apocalypse:n.启示;天启; unfolding:v.(使)展开;打开;展示;透露;(unfold的现在分词)
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| - I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?" |
我也许会说,“我能不能说点别的？” |
| But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can. |
不过我当时没说,那么好吧,我只能尽力试试看了。 |
| I've got to warn you: the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle , sometimes even elusive . |
我必须先警告你们 我世界观的积极意义很难被理解 甚至可以说是晦涩难懂 |
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worldview:n.世界观; subtle:adj.微妙的;精细的;敏感的;狡猾的;稀薄的; elusive:adj.难懂的;易忘的;逃避的;难捉摸的;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring -- |
当我说:“我可以变得很乐观“, |
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uplifting:adj.令人振奋的;使人开心的; inspiring:adj.鼓舞人心的;灌输的;v.鼓舞;激发;使感悟;(inspire的现在分词)
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| I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration -- |
我想,我尝试去乐观这件事 本来就带着点悲观色彩,所以- |
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grim:adj.冷酷的;糟糕的;残忍的; dimension:n.方面;[数]维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸;adj.规格的;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| - if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid, the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed. |
-如果“悲观的乐观主义精神“不算自相矛盾的话,恐怕 这就是今天你们可以从我这儿得到的,最乐观的东西了。 |
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contradiction:n.矛盾;反驳;驳斥;
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| I'll see what I can do. OK? |
我会尽力的。 |
| Now, in one sense, the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial . |
首先, 历史发展有一定方向性这个观点,不会引起太多异议。 |
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claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得; controversial:adj.有争议的;有争论的;
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| If you're just talking about social structure , |
比如我们来看看社会的结构 |
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structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造;
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| OK, clearly that's gotten more complex a little over the last 10 thousand years -- has reached higher and higher levels. |
很显然,在过去的一万年里 社会结构越来越复杂,也越来越高级 |
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complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
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| And in fact, that's actually sustaining a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK, that biological evolution was doing for us. |
事实上, 这个远期的趋势在人类出现之前就定好了 这是生物进化的客观规律所决定的 |
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sustaining:adj.持续的;支持的;v.维持(sustain的现在分词);支持;承受; long-standing:adj.长期存在的;存在已久的; trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向; predates:v.(在日期上)早于,先于;(predate的第三人称单数) biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品; evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
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| Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell, then cells start hanging out together in societies. |
生命起源,从一个细胞开始, 然后细胞们逐渐成群结队了 |
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stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: encases:v.把…装箱;把…包在…内;(encase的第三人称单数)
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| Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms , then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies. |
最后它们彼此亲近,构成了多细胞组织 然后有了更复杂些的多细胞组织;这可以理解为社群的一种形式。 |
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Eventually:adv.最后,终于; multicellular:adj.[生物]多细胞的;多空隙的; organisms:n.[生物]生物体(organism的复数);[生物]有机体;
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| But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution. |
某个时间点,某一个多细胞组织 发生了一些奇妙的事情 启动了一种全新的进化过程:文化进化。 |
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launches:n.汽艇(launch的复数);v.[航]发射;下水;投入(launch的单三形式); cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的;
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| And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity . |
更奇妙的是,这种进化所遵循的轨迹 与生物进化是一致的---越来越复杂 |
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sustains:v.支撑(sustain的第三人称单数);保持;遭受(损失等);支援; trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道; established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式) complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势
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| By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas. |
文化进化,是指思想的演化过程。 |
| A lot of you have heard the term " memes ." The evolution of technology, |
你们中的很多人都听说过“文化基因“这个词。 |
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memes:模因(meme的复数);
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| I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know, one of the first things you got was a little hand axe . |
一直以来,我还很关注技术进化, 我们从一把小小的斧片开始, |
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axe:n.斧;v.削减;用斧砍;
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| Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick? |
代代相传,直到某人说,我们为什么不把斧片安在棍子上呢？ |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| Just absolutely delights the little ones. |
这大大方便了那些个子比较矮的人。 |
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absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; delights:n.高兴; v.使高兴; (delight的第三人称单数和复数)
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| Next best thing to a video game . |
另一个例子,电视游戏。 |
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video game:n.电子游戏;
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| This may not seem to impress , but technological evolution is progressive , so another 10, 20,000 years, and armaments technology takes you here. |
看上去它好像没什么了不起的。 但是技术进化是一个持续的过程,所以过了一两万年, 到今天,我们拥有了强大的武器装备。 |
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impress:v.盖印;强征;传送;给予某人深刻印象; technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; progressive:adj.进步的;先进的;开明的;稳步的;n.进步人士;开明人士;改革派; armaments:n.[军]军备;[军]武器(armament的复数);
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| Impressive . And the rate of technological evolution speeds up, so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK. |
技术进化也是一个加速进化, 所以再过250年,我们有了这个。 |
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Impressive:adj.感人的;令人钦佩的;给人以深刻印象的; mere:adj.仅仅的;只不过的;n.小湖;池塘;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| And this. |
还有这个。 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse, and I thought that might do it. |
不好意思--这个笑话很冷,我只是 想找到一种解释默示录的方法, 我以为讲些笑话能有些帮助。 |
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transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡;
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| (Applause) |
（掌声） |
| OK. So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse, is the collapse of global social organization . |
当今世界社会体系的崩溃, 冥冥中预示着默示录的秘密 |
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collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭; organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
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| Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are, to be on the brink of true global social organization. |
首先,我们来看看,世界上的社会体系 是如何演化到今天的样子的。 |
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remind:v.提醒;使想起; on the brink of:即将要;濒于;濒临;在…的边缘;
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| Originally , you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village. |
起初,是一个复杂的、靠狩猎与采集维生的村落。 |
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Originally:adv.原来;起初; hunter-gatherer:n.采集狩猎的人;
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| Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom , which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity with centralized rule. |
然后是酋长社会,代表遗迹---巨石阵, 在酋长社会,出现了农业,这是一种 有中央集权的多村落群体制。 |
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Stonehenge:巨石阵 remnant:n.剩余;adj.剩余的; chiefdom:n.首领地位; centralized:adj.集中的;中央集权的;v.集中(centralize的过去分词);
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| With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry . I kind of like that because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you |
随着书写的发明,城市出现了。这个关系看上去有点牵强。但是我很喜欢, 整个过程就像刚才所讲的单细胞组织的进化过程, |
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blurry:adj.模糊的;污脏的;不清楚的; one-celled:adj.单细胞的; reminds:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的第三人称单数)
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| how many levels organic organization has already moved through to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires. |
有机体经过层层演化, 才成了今天的样子。接下来的,你们一定猜到,是帝国。 |
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organic:adj.有机的;不使用化肥的;绿色的;有机物的;n.分子有机体;
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| I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds. |
我必须强调一下,社会组织是不受政治界限约束的。 |
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transcend:v.超出,超越(通常的界限);
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| This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire. |
丝绸之路,贯通了古中国与古罗马帝国。 |
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Roman:n.罗马人;古罗马语;adj.罗马的;罗马人的;
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| So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent , even if no polity did similarly . Today, you've got nation states. |
我们在整片亚欧大陆上看到了一致的社会属性, 即使政体不同。今天,有那么多国家, |
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spanning:v.持续;贯穿;包括(广大地区);涵盖(多项内容);(span的现在分词) continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的; similarly:adv.同样地;类似于;
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| Point is, there's obviously collaboration and organization going on beyond national bounds. |
但很显然,各种组织与合作蓬勃发展着, 超越了国界。 |
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collaboration:n.合作;勾结;通敌;
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| This is actually just a picture of the earth at night, and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty. |
这张图片显示了深夜里地球的样子, 我认为它非常漂亮, |
| Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system. |
传递着一种整体感。 |
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convey:vt.传达;运输;让与; integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词)
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| OK. Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something called non-zero sumness. |
现在,我要用“非零和效应“ 来解释这类演化。 |
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reference:n.参考,提及;参考书目;证明书;v.引用; non-zero:adj.非零;
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| Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly, the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations are inverse : always a winner and a loser. |
考虑到有些人可能没有看过阅读资料, 在零和博弈中,博弈者的关系是对立的: 一个赢家,一个输家。 |
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Assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词) assigned:v.分配(某物);分派;指定;委派;(assign的过去分词和过去式) distinction:n.区别;区分;差别;卓越; zero-sum:adj.零和的; correlations:n.统计,[数]相关(correlation复数形式);相互关系; inverse:n.相反;倒转;adj.相反的;倒转的;v.使倒转;使颠倒;
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| Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK. |
而非零和博弈,这种关系可以是双赢的。 |
| So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose, it always adds up to zero-zero-sum, but if you're playing doubles, the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you, so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them. |
就像在网球赛中,通常是有输赢的, 比分总是零和的,但是在双打赛中, 你的搭档,与你站在同一战线, 因此你与你的搭档之间,是一种非零和游戏。 |
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in the same boat:处境相同;面临同样的危险;
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| It's either for the better or for the worse , OK. |
你们总是有福同享,有难同当。 |
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for the better:好转,向好的方向发展; for the worse:恶化;向坏的方面转化;
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| A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on in everyday life often leads to cooperation . |
在经济学领域,非零和博弈 往往会带来合作。 |
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realm:n.领域,范围;王国; cooperation:n.合作;配合;
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| The argument I make is basically that, well, non-zero-sum games have always been part of life. |
我想说的是, 非零和博弈始终是我们生活的一部分。 |
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basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
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| You have them in hunter-gatherer societies, but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games, involving more people over larger territory . |
在人类采集狩猎的时代,就有非零和博弈。 然而随着技术进步,新的技术不断兴起, 促进了非零和博弈的发生。 参与其中的博弈者,其分布也越来越广。 |
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arise:v.出现;发生;产生;起身; facilitate:vt.促进;帮助;使容易; involving:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;(involve的现在分词) territory:n.领土,领域;范围;地域;版图;
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| Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and to harness this productive potential , so you get cities, you know, and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about that are being played across the world. |
为了适应这种可能性,社会的结构不断改变, 来保证我们有这样的生产潜力,所以出现了你所熟知的城市, 以及你所不熟知的非零和博弈, 你可能并未意识到非零和博弈在世界每个角落都在发生。 |
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adapts:abbr.模拟-数字-模拟处理与测试系统(Analogue-Digital-AnalogueProcessandTestSystem); accommodate:vt.容纳;使适应;供应;调解;vi.适应;调解; harness:vt.治理; n.马具; productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
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| Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car, how many people on how many different continents contributed to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect you're playing a non-zero-sum game with. |
举个例子,当你买车的时候, 你有没有想过,有多少身处各大洲的人, 涉及了这辆车的制造过程？这些相关人士, 就是你进行非零和游戏的对象。 |
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continents:n.[地理]大陆,大洲(continent复数); contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词) manufacture:v.(用机器)大量生产; n.大量制造;
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| I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around. |
显然,他们人数众多。 |
| Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way, because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win , you know, that's good. Well, there are a few reasons that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat. |
某种程度上来讲,这实际上是一种非常j积极乐观的世界观, 因为当你提到零和时,你所考虑的是双赢的结果, 这很不错。不过,我也认为, 本质上,它也并不是那么令人乐观。 |
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intrinsically:adv.本质地;内在地;固有地; win-win:adj.双赢的;互利互惠的;
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| First of all , it can accommodate: it doesn't deny the existence of inequality exploitation war. |
首先,它并没有否定 不平等的剥削战争的存在。 |
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First of all:adv.首先; deny:v.否定,否认;拒绝给予;拒绝…的要求; exploitation:n.开发,开采;利用;广告推销;
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| But there's a more fundamental reason that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game, all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse. |
还有一个更深层的原因, 因为非零和博弈, 它只能保证结果要么是都好,要么是都坏, |
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fortunes:n.命运,机遇(fortune复数形式); v.给…以大宗财富(fortune的第三人称单数形式); correlated:v.相互关联影响;相互依赖;(correlate的过去式和过去分词)
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| It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome . |
它不能保证最后的结果是双赢的。 |
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necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地; predict:v.预报;预言;预告; outcome:n.结果,结局;成果;
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| So, in a way, the question is, on what grounds am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is, first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games |
那么,我到底凭什么 对整个历史进程保持乐观的态度呢？答案如下, 第一,总的来说,我认为 |
| to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance, |
人们总是能更多的得到双赢结果。 |
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outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数) lose-lose:adj.对双方都不利的;双输的;
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| I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department. |
我认为历史进程,在非零和博弈里,净结果是正的。 |
| And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me, most impresses me, and most uplifts me, which is that there is a moral dimension to history, there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time. |
对这个结论,有一个最令我惊异的实际证明, 它给我留下了深刻的印象,也非常激励我: 历史进程,本身包含了一个道德维度, 存在一个道德指向。可以看到,道德也是随着时间而发展的。 |
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testament:n.[法]遗嘱;圣约;确实的证明; impresses:v.盖印;强征;传送;给予某人深刻印象;n.印象,印记;特征,痕迹; uplifts:n.[地]隆起; v.提高(社会地位); (uplift的第三人称单数); moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的;
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| 2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city state considered members of another Greek city state subhuman and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived, and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings. |
2500年钱,希腊城邦里的人, 认为其他希腊城邦里的人,都是次等人, 用对待此等人的方式对待他们。随着道德革命的开始, 他们改变了主意,所有的希腊人都是人类。 |
|
city state:n.城邦; subhuman:adj.类人的;近似人类的;低于人类的; treated:v.以…态度对待;把…看作;(treat的过去分词和过去式) revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环;
|
| It's just the Persians who aren't fully human and don't deserve to be treated very nicely . |
只有波斯人是次等人, 不应该对他们太好了, |
|
Persians:n.波斯人;波斯语;百叶窗;波斯绸;adj.波斯的;(persians是Persian的复数); deserve:vi.应受,应得; nicely:adv.细致地;有吸引力;令人满意;令人愉快;adj.强健的;
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| But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today, we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say that all people everywhere are human beings, deserve to be treated decently , unless they do something horrendous , regardless of race or religion. |
但这至少是个进步--呵呵,给希腊人一个小表扬。今天, 这个进步就更大了。我认为--我也希望--在座的大部分人, 都会承认,世界各地的人都是同类, 所有人都应该被平等对待, 除非他们做了令人厌恶的事情,不论什么种族什么宗教。 |
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decently:adv.合适地;高雅地;正派地;亲切地; horrendous:adj.可怕的;惊人的; regardless:adj.不管的; v.不顾后果地;
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| And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been, |
你应该去读读古代史,然后才能明白这是怎样一个革命。 |
| OK. This was not a prevalent view, few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic . |
这个观点并未被广泛接受, 我认为正式因为非零和效应,几千年前的人类, |
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prevalent:adj.流行的;普遍的,广传的; attribute:n.属性;象征;v.把…归因于;认为…属于;认为某人(某物)具有某种特性; dynamic:n.动力; adj.充满活力的;
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| I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities, ethnicities , religions, as there is today, you know. If you asked me, you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan, well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car, OK. |
就学会了包容国籍、 种族和宗教方面的差异,这与现在的情况无异。如果你问我, 为什么我不支持向日本投放原子弹, 如果我说那是因为日本人造了我的车,那是半开玩笑的。 |
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tolerance:n.公差;耐量;宽容;容忍; ethnicities:n.种族划分;
|
| We have this non-zero-sum relationship, and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours. |
我们之间存在一种非零和关系, 我认为,这种关系确实促进我们彼此包容, 因为其他人的福利确实与你的福利正相关。 |
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extent:n.程度;范围;长度; welfare:n.福祉;(政府给予的)福利; positively:adv.肯定地;明确地;断然地;
|
| You're more likely to cut them a break. |
你可能更愿意给他们一个机会。 |
| I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality . |
我想这是一种商务仓的道德准则。 |
|
morality:n.道德;品行,美德;
|
| Unfortunately , I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough to know, or any other kind of business class really. |
不幸的是,我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商务仓, 也真不太了解其他航空公司的商务仓了。 |
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Unfortunately:adv.不幸地; business class:n.商务舱;
|
| But I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know, bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups, because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class |
我暂且认定,在商务仓,你不会听到太多 关于种族的偏执言论, 因为坐商务仓的人, |
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assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现; expressions:表达,表情(expression的复数) bigotry:n.偏执;顽固;盲从; racial:adj.种族的;人种的;
|
| are doing business with all these people; they're making money off of all these people. And I really do think that in that sense at least, capitalism has been a constructive force, and more fundamentally , it's a non-zero-sumness |
与各种各样的人进行交易; 他们只想从这些人手里赚钱。因此我认为,至少在这个层面, 资本主义是一股有助益的力量, 它是非零纯和的, |
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capitalism:n.资本主义; constructive:adj.建设性的;推定的;构造上的;有助益的; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地
|
| that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm of moral awareness , OK. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic, which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce -- |
它帮助人们扩张了 道德意识的领域。我认为非零和机制, 不只是说经济--任何事都不能只归到经济利益-- |
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expanding:v.扩大,增加,增强细谈;详述;(expand的现在分词) awareness:n.意识,认识;明白,知道; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; by any means:无论如何; commerce:n.商业;(尤指国际间的)贸易;商务;
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| but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth, which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that. |
非零和机制带领我们逼近了道德真相的边缘, 那就是人人平等。 |
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verge:vi.濒临,接近;处在边缘;n.边缘;
|
| As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization it has driven us toward moral truth. |
当我们进入一个全球层面的社会机构, 我们必须面对道德真相。 |
| I think that's wonderful. |
这太棒了。 |
| Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse. |
现在,回到那本未开启的启示录。 |
| And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine, sounds great -- moral direction in history -- but what about this so-called clash of civilizations ? Well, first of all, |
好吧,你可能会好奇, 听起来不错--历史的道德维度-- 但是怎么解释那些不同文明之间的冲突？首先, |
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so-called:adj.所谓的;号称的; clash:v.冲突; n.冲突; civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
|
| I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework, |
我要强调一下,这些冲突的发生也是符合非零和机制的, |
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emphasize:v.强调;重视;着重;使突出;
|
| OK. If you look at the relationship between the so-called Muslim world and Western world -- two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid -- in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else. |
如果我们仔细看看 所谓的穆斯林世界与西方世界的关系-- 这两个词是我不喜欢用的,但是又无法避免使用它们-- 在这么短的时间内,没什么比这两个词更高效了。 |
|
efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的;
|
| It is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean, if people in the Muslim world get more hateful , more resentful , less happy with their place in the world, it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West. |
这个关系是非零和的。我是说, 如果穆斯林世界的人怀着更多的敌意、更多的憎恨, 对他们在世界上的位置更不满意, 这对西方世界来说,也是不利的。反之,如果他们更快乐,对西方世界也是有益处的。 |
|
hateful:adj.可憎的;可恨的;可恶的; resentful:adj.充满忿恨的;厌恶的;
|
| So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic. |
所以这是一种非零和机制。 |
| And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time because of technological trends , but more intense in a kind of negative way. |
这种机制,会因为科技的发展趋势, 这种非零和机制,会向负面方向进行的越来越激烈。 |
|
intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的; trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数) negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝;
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| It's the down-side correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible. |
他们未来的命运,将越来越可能呈现负面的相关性。 |
| And one reason is because of something I call the growing lethality of hatred . |
我称其为憎恨的破坏性积累效应。 |
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lethality:n.杀伤力;致命性;毁坏性; hatred:n.仇恨;憎恨;厌恶;
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| More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil. |
基层草根很有可能以在美国发动更频繁的、有组织的暴力 来发泄他们对异族的强烈憎恨。 |
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grassroots:adj.基层的;草根的;乡村的;n.草根;基础; abroad:adv.在国外;到海外;adj.往国外的;n.海外;异国; manifest:v.表明;显现;使人注意到;adj.明显的;显而易见的;n.旅客名单; organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲;
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| And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse |
我认为这种状况很有可能继续恶化, |
| - this capacity -- because of trends in information technology , in technologies that can be used for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology . |
-我之所以这么说-- 是因为信息技术的迅猛发展, 生物技术和纳米技术也正在更多地被运用在军火上。 |
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capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力; information technology:n.信息技术; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); munitions:n.[军]军需品(尤指武器弹药); v.供应…军需品; biotechnology:n.[生物]生物技术;[生物]生物工艺学; nanotechnology:n.纳米技术;
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| We may be hearing more about that today. |
我们时常能听到新技术在军事上的新应用。 |
| And there's something I worry about especially , which is that, this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope . |
我尤其忧虑的是, 这种动态变化会导致一种回馈循环,逼迫我们走上陡坡。 |
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especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; feedback:n.反馈;反馈意见;回授;[电子]反馈; on a slippery slope:难以自拔;
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| What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it. |
我的想法是:恐怖主义已经发生了;我们的反应过于激烈。 |
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terrorism:n.恐怖主义; overreact:vi.反应过度;反作用过强;
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| That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism. |
我们对于恐怖主义的复仇,并不是那么理智, 这只会让外族更憎恨我们,导致更猖狂的恐怖主义。 |
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sufficiently:adv.充分地;足够地; surgical:adj.外科的;外科手术的; retaliation:n.报复;反击;回敬;
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| We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating , and it gets worse and worse and worse. |
当我们感到被憎恨时,我们的反应会更加激烈,这是人的本性, 这是一种恶性循环。 |
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retaliating:v.报复;反击;复仇;(retaliate的现在分词)
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| You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes , but I think in something so spooky , we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense. |
你可以称之为负面情绪的正向反馈效应, 这在我看来非常可怕, 我们甚至不该使用“正向”这个词,即使只是术语的表达。 |
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vibes:n.共鸣;电颤琴;气氛(vibe的复数);v.发生共鸣(vibe的三单形式); spooky:adj.幽灵般的;有鬼般的;令人毛骨悚然的; technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的;
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| So let's call it the death spiral of negativity . |
所以让我们称之为负面情绪的死亡螺旋效应。 |
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spiral:n.螺旋;旋涡;螺旋形之物;adj.螺旋形的;v.使成螺旋形;vi.盘旋;螺旋形上升; negativity:n.否定性;消极性;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West and the Muslim world will have suffered. OK. |
我敢说,一旦这个效应开始作用,到头来, 西方世界和穆斯林世界都要受罪。 |
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assure:vt.保证;担保;使确信;弄清楚;
|
| So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control , the international regulation of dangerous technologies. |
所以我们到底该怎么办？首先,我们要做的远远不只是武装控制, 或者什么对威胁性技术的国际公约。 |
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arms control:n.军备控制; regulation:n.规则;法规;控制;规章制度;adj.规定的;必须穿戴的;必须使用的;
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| I have a whole global governance sermon that I will spare you right now, because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential . |
我想给你们讲一大堆道理, 讲讲整个地球该怎么治理, 虽然我其实觉得怎么讲都不嫌多,这还是很有必要的。 |
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governance:n.管理;统治;支配; sermon:n.布道;讲道;冗长的说教; spare:v.节约,吝惜;饶恕;分出,分让;adj.多余的;瘦的;少量的;n.剩余;备用零件; essential:n.要点;要素;实质;必需品;adj.完全必要的;必不可少的;极其重要的;本质的;
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| I think we're going to have to have a major round of moral progress in the world. |
我认为, 一轮新的道德进化即将开始。 |
| I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups, less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever. |
我认为,不同群体---不同的种族、宗教,任何有差异的群体, 他们之间的厌恶会减少,偏执的行为会减少, |
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religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑;
|
| I've got to admit I feel silly saying that. |
好吧我必须承认当我这么说时,我也觉得自己很傻。 |
| It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know, saying, why can't we all just get along? |
听起来我好像在盲目乐观,好像罗德尼 金当年说, 我们为什么就不能一起混？ |
| But hey, I don't really see any alternative , given the way I read the situation. |
但是,就我目前的处境看,我没有其他选择了。 |
|
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择;
|
| There's going to have to be moral progress, OK. |
道德进化一定要发生。 |
| There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world, given how dangerous it's becoming. |
整个世界上弥漫的仇恨一定要减少, 因为现在这个世界是如此岌岌可危。 |
|
lessening:n.减轻,减少;变小;v.减少;变小(lessen的ing形式);
|
| In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound, it's ultimately grounded in cynicism . |
尽管听起来很无知,但我还是要维护自己一下, 即使一大堆冷嘲热讽依然存在。 |
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naive:adj.天真的,幼稚的; ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; cynicism:n.玩世不恭,愤世嫉俗;犬儒主义;冷嘲热讽;
|
| That is to say -- |
也就是说-- |
|
That is to say:就是;即;换言之;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| - thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view of morality is that it boils down to self-interest . |
-谢谢,谢谢。也就是说,请记住: 我讲所有的道德,都归结于自我利益。 |
|
self-interest:n.私利;利己主义;
|
| It's when people's fortunes are correlated. |
当人们的命运彼此相连, |
| It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah, |
当你的福利也能带给我福利,那么行呀, |
| I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible for this growth of this moral progress so far, and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes. |
我绝对为你的福利着想。 这个就是道德进步的源动力。 我再强调一遍,我们的命运紧紧相连。 |
|
responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的;
|
| And if people respond to it intelligently , we will see the development of tolerance and so on -- the norms that we need, you know. |
如果人们采取明智的回应, 我们将看到更多的包容,以及 其他我们所需要的东西。 |
|
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; intelligently:adv.聪明地,明智地; norms:n.[标准]标准,规范;基准(norm复数形式);
|
| We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality. |
我们讲看到此类公务舱道德的再次进化。 |
| So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests , which is further the moral evolution, then they could actually have a constructive effect. |
所以这两个方面--人们注意到并且认可这种正相关性, 并且他们从自己的利益出发-- 促成了道德的进一步发展, 那么,可以看到一些建设性作用。 |
|
self-interests:n.私利;利己主义;
|
| And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric : reasons to be cheerful . |
这就是我为什么把“增强的憎恨的破坏性效应“ 和“负面效应的死亡螺旋效应“放在一个大标题下: 这值得高兴。 |
|
lump:n.肿块;(通常为无定形的)块;隆起;笨重的人;v.把…归并一起(或合起来考虑); rubric:n.红字标题;红色印刷;题目;adj.印为红字的; cheerful:adj.快乐的;愉快的;高兴的;
|
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| Doing the best I can, okay. |
我已经很尽力了,好嘛。 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| I never called myself Mr. Uplift. |
我从来不叫自己“乐观先生”。 |
| I'm just doing what I can here. |
我确实很尽力了。 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right? |
好吧,道德进化的展开,确实是非常困难的,对吧？ |
|
launching:n.发射;开办;起飞;v.开始从事,发起,发动;(launch的现在分词)
|
| I mean, what do you do? |
你们要怎么做？ |
| And I think the answer is a lot of different people are going to have to do a lot of different things. |
我的回答是, 我们所有人各尽其责。 |
| We all start where we are. Speaking as an American who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road |
我们就从眼下开始。作为一个美国人, 我们的孩子有10年,20年,30年的保障, |
|
down the road:只要沿着这条路;将来;在路上;
|
| I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK. |
我的忧虑在于--我个人设定的起点-- 是想清楚为什么这个世界上,有这么多人讨厌我们。 |
|
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言;
|
| I think that's a worthy research project myself. |
我个人认为这是个很值得研究的课题。 |
|
worthy:adj.值得的; n.杰出人物;
|
| I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise, |
基本上,这也可以算做一个道德拯救的小练习。 |
|
morally:adv.道德上;有道德地;确实地; redeeming:v.补救;弥补;改变印象;维护;拯救;(redeem的现在分词)
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| Because to understand why somebody in a very different culture does something -- somebody you're kind of viewing as alien -- who's doing things you consider strange |
因为要弄理解那些 不同文化背景的人所做的事-- 这些人对你来说简直就是外星人-- 他们的所作所为在你看来奇怪极了, |
| in a culture you consider strange, to really understand why they do the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment because you've got to relate their experience to yours. |
在这样一个奇怪的文化背景下,真正能理解他们, 是一个道德救赎方面的大成就, 你必须把他们的经历与你的联系起来, |
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accomplishment:n.成就;完成;技艺,技能;
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| To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it. |
才能真正明白,才能说,“啊,我懂了。 |
| So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like the way I feel resentful when this happens, and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding. |
因此当他们感到愤恨时, 我似乎也能感到愤恨, 出于完全一致的理由。“这才是真正的理解。 |
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somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
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| And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that. |
我认为,你应该把这种理解,添加到你的道德范畴中。 |
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expansion:n.扩张;膨胀;扩展;扩大; compass:n.罗盘;指南针;圆规;范围;界限;v.理解;领悟;将…包围;成功办到
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| It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK, because you don't really want to completely understand why people hate you. |
当对方憎恨你时,这变的尤其困难了,对吧, 因为确实没有人会愿意, 去完整地搞清楚为什么有人憎恨你。 |
| I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it. |
我是说,你当然想知道原因,但是你不会愿意把前后两者联系起来。 |
| You don't want it to make sense , right? |
你不想承认这个因果关系,对吗？ |
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make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理;
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| You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand how a human being in those circumstances would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing, |
你不想说,“好吧好吧,我明白了, 为什么一个处于那种环境下的人, 会讨厌我所在的国家。”这毕竟是件别扭的事情, |
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circumstances:n.情况;环境;情形;(circumstance的复数)
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| but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know, there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding |
但我想我们不得不渐渐去适应。 我想强调一下,之所以, 某些人并不喜欢我这一整套理解草根的玩意儿, |
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get used to:开始习惯于
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| the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know why people hate us. I want to understand it. |
根本原因是:他们不想知道 为什么人们讨厌我们。但是我想了解。 |
| The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us, is to get them to quit hating us, OK. The idea when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate |
只有弄明白他们为什么讨厌我们, 我们才能让他们不再讨厌我们,对吧。 当我们通过这种道德反思,去真正体谅 |
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quit:v.离开;放弃;停止;使…解除;n.离开;[计]退出;adj.摆脱了…的;已经了结的; appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
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| their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run . |
他们的人性,去更理解他们, 他们才能更体谅我们的想法。 |
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humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; in the long run:长远;终究;
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| I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal. |
这是第一步。这是个需要长期努力才能实现的目标。 |
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long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看;
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| There are people who worry about this, and in fact, |
有些人有顾虑,大家都知道, |
| I myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written. |
就几天前,我在国家电视台上被公开指责, 起因是我在专栏里所写的东西。 |
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denounced:adj.公开抨击的;v.谴责;揭发;声明…无效(denounce的过去分词); op-ed:n.评论版;
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| It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was that I have, quote , "affection for terrorists." |
我所写的字句,被指控为, 引用他们的话,“对恐怖主义的感情。” |
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allegation:n.(无证据的)说法,指控; quote:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;n.引用;
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| Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter , OK. |
好消息是,至少念出这个指控的人是安妮库尔特。 |
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Coulter:n.犁刀;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |
| I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter. |
如果你一定要树个敌,那么就找安妮库尔特吧。 |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| But it's not a crazy concern , OK, because understanding behavior can lead to a kind of empathy , and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love , and so on. |
他们不是杞人忧天。 尝试理解恐怖主义,引起了某种共鸣, 使得传达这种纠结的情感变得更为困难。 |
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concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; empathy:n.神入;移情作用;执着; tough love:n.严厉的爱(为帮助而严厉对待有问题的人);
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| But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists. |
但我也认为,选择不去理解,会是个更大的错误, 情况已经很清楚了, 我们不能再让士兵去杀害恐怖分子了。 |
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erring:adj.做错的;错误的;v.犯错误;越轨(err的ing形式); on the side of:拥护…;站在…一边;赞助; comprehending:n.理解;v.理解(comprehend的现在分词);
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| So I'm not really worried about it. So -- |
我并不真在乎这个问题。所以-- |
| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| - I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts, OK, but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again, non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics will have forced us to a higher moral level. |
-我是说,我们必须再采取些更直接更勇敢的措施, 一旦我们成功了--那么, 非零和效应将再一次被认可,非零和机制将再一次被接受, 我们的道德水准无疑将进入新的水平。 |
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recognition:n.识别;认识;承认;认可; dynamics:n.动力学,力学;
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| And a kind of saving higher moral level, something that kind of literally saves the world. |
某种意义上的,拯救性的,更高的道德水准, 可以拯救世界。 |
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literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
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| If you look at the word salvation in the Bible -- the Christian usage that we're familiar with, saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer . |
如果你看看圣经里的“救赎”这个词-- 我们已很熟悉它在基督教中的用法-- 拯救灵魂,带人们上天堂--这其实是后人给的解释了。 |
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salvation:n.拯救;救助; Bible:n.有权威的书; usage:n.使用;利用;利用率;惯用法; familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友; latecomer:n.迟到者;新来者;
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| The original meaning of the word salvation in the Bible is about saving the social system. |
救赎在圣经里最原始的意思是,拯救社会系统。 |
| '"Yahweh is our Savior ," means "He has saved the nation of Israel," |
“耶和华是我们的救世主,”是指“他拯救了以色列人的国,” |
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Savior:n.救世主;救星;救助者;
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| which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization. |
那个时候,以色列已经是个很高级的社会组织了。 |
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high-level:adj.高级的;高阶层的;在高空的;
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| Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess, if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way. |
现在,整个地球都是一个社会组织,所以我猜想, 如果我说我能带给你们什么好消息的话, 只要以规范而谨慎的方式,明智地追求自我利益, 就能拯救这个世界。 |
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pursuit:n.追求;追赶;追捕;跟踪; disciplined:adj.遵守纪律的; v.训练; (discipline的过去式和过去分词)
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| It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway because we've just come too far to screw it up now. |
这很难。但我们无论如何要试试看, 因为如今我们已无法回头。 |
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screw it up:搞砸;
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| Thanks. |
谢谢。 |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |