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RobertMuggah_2014G-_如何防止快速发展的城市衰退_
We can cut violent deaths around the world by 50 percent in the next three decades. 我们可以在未来三十年内 将全球暴力性死亡率减半。
violent:adj.暴力的;猛烈的;
All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year, and we'll hit that target. 我们只需将谋杀犯罪率每年降低2.3%, 并且我们可以做到。
You don't believe me? 你不信我？
Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world seem to think we can, and so do I, but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones. 世界各地顶尖的流行病学家和犯罪学家 似乎认为我们做得到,我也认为做得到, 但前提是我们关注城市,特别是最为脆弱的城市。
epidemiologists:n.流行病学家(epidemiologist的复数); criminologists:犯罪学家; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; fragile:adj.脆的;易碎的;
You see, I've been thinking about this a lot. 这是我一直关注的问题。
For the last 20 years, I've been working in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict , violence , terrorism , or some insidious combination of all. 二十年来,我工作所处的国家和城市 都充斥着冲突、暴力、 恐怖主义,或者样样皆由。
conflict:n.冲突;矛盾;争执;抵触;v.抵触; violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲; terrorism:n.恐怖主义; insidious:adj.阴险的;隐伏的;暗中为害的;狡猾的; combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合;
I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia, 我曾经跟踪枪械走私分子从俄罗斯跟踪到索马里,
tracked:v.跟踪;追踪;(track的过去分词和过去式) smugglers:n.走私者;(smuggler的复数)
I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo, 我曾经与阿富汗和刚果的军阀合作,
warlords:n.军阀;(warlord的复数) Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti , in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea . 我曾在哥伦比亚、海地、斯里兰卡、巴布亚新几内亚,清点尸体数量。
cadavers:n.死尸;尸体;(cadaver的复数) Haiti:n.海地; Papua:n.巴布亚岛(新几内亚岛NewGuinea的旧名); Guinea:n.几内亚;基尼(英国旧时金币名);
You don't need to be on the front line , though, to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right? 话虽如此,你不需要身处战争前线, 才感觉到我们的星球正失去控制,是吧？
on the front line:在第一线;唱片名; spinning:n.纺纱(手艺):纺线v.(使)旋转:纺线:纺纱;(spin的现在分词)
There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal. 大家明显都感觉到,国际动荡是新常态。
instability:n.不稳定(性);基础薄弱;不安定;
But I want you to take a closer look, and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing, because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas , Erbil, Mosul , Tripoli, Salvador . 但我希望大家深入观察, 就会看到暴力的地理面貌正在改变, 因为被冲突和犯罪操控的,不是我们的国家, 而是城市:阿勒颇、巴马科、加拉加斯、埃尔比勒、摩苏尔、的黎波里、萨尔瓦多。
gripped:vt.紧咬,夹住;紧握(grip过去时形式); Caracas:n.加拉加斯(委内瑞拉首都); Mosul:n.摩苏尔(伊拉克北部城市); Salvador:n.萨尔瓦多(巴西东部港市);
Violence is migrating to the metropole . 暴力正向大都市迁移。
migrating:v.迁移;迁徙;移居(migrate的现在分词); metropole:n.都市酒店;
And maybe this is to be expected, right? 也许这是预料之中的事,对吧？
After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside. 毕竟目前大部分人居住在城市,而不是农村。
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities , account for two thirds of global GDP. 600个城市,包括30个大城市,就占了全球GDP的三分之二。
megacities:n.大城市(megacity的复数); account for:对…负有责任;对…做出解释;说明…的原因;导致;(比例)占; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
But when it comes to cities, the conversation is dominated by the North, that is, North America , Western Europe, Australia and Japan, where violence is actually at historic lows. 但说到城市, 话题大都由北部地区主导, 所谓北部地区,是指北美、西欧、澳洲和日本, 这些地区的暴力率处于历史新低点。
dominated:v.支配;控制;左右;影响;(dominate的过去式和过去分词) North America:n.北美洲; historic:adj.有历史意义的;历史上著名的;
As a result , city enthusiasts , they talk about the triumph of the city, of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world. 因此,城市的热衷者聊的是城市的胜利、 创新阶级的胜利、说市长们会统治世界。
As a result:结果; enthusiasts:热心人;热衷者;狂热者(enthusiast的复数); triumph:v.战胜;成功;打败;n.巨大成功;重大成就;伟大胜利;喜悦; creative:adj.创造性的; mayors:市长;
Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world, but, you know, the fact is, we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South. 我希望某天市长真会统治世界, 但是,事实是, 我们没有真正地听到南部地区的声音和形势。
And by South, I mean Latin America , Africa, Asia, where violence in some cases is accelerating , where infrastructure is overstretched , and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality. 所谓南部地区,我是指拉丁美洲、非洲、亚洲 在这些地方,暴力不断加剧, 基础设施捉襟见肘, 有时政府管理不过是理想,难成现实。
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区); accelerating:adj.促进的,[物]加速的;催化的; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; overstretched:adj.超负荷运转的,硬撑着的; v.(使)勉强维持,超负荷运转; (overstretch的过去分词和过去式) governance:n.管理;统治;支配; aspiration:n.渴望;抱负;送气;吸气;吸引术;
Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists, they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states that will shape security in the 21st century. 目前,一些外交官、发展专家、专业人士在关注 会决定21世纪安全的四五十个脆弱城市。 会决定21世纪安全的四五十个脆弱城市。
diplomats:外交官;
I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder . 我认为,这些脆弱城市会直接决定未来的秩序和稳定。
define:v.定义;使明确;规定; disorder:n.混乱;骚乱;vt.使失调;扰乱;
That's because warfare and humanitarian action are going to be concentrated in our cities, and the fight for development, whether you define that as eradicating poverty , universal healthcare , beating back climate change, will be won or lost in the shantytowns , slums and favelas of our cities. 因为战争和人道主义行动 将会集中发生在我们的城市, 为发展而起的斗争, 无论是消灭贫穷、 普及医疗保健、还是击退气候变化, 成败关键都在于城市中的破屋、残楼、贫民窟。
warfare:n.战争;冲突; humanitarian:adj.人道主义的;博爱的;基督凡人论的;n.人道主义者;基督凡人论者; concentrated:adj.决心要做的; v.集中(注意力); (concentrate的过去式和过去分词) eradicating:根除; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; healthcare:n.医疗保健;健康护理,健康服务;卫生保健; shantytowns:n.棚户区(shantytown的复数); slums:n.贫民,[经]贫民区(slum的复数); v.到贫民窟去; favelas:n.(巴西)贫民窟(favela的复数);
I want to talk to you about four megarisks that I think will define fragility in our time, and if we can get to grips with these, 我想向大家介绍 定义现时代脆弱性的四大危机, 倘若我们能够处理这些危机,
fragility:n.脆弱;[力]易碎性;虚弱; grips:vbl.抓爪;
I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem. 我们就可以解决致命暴力问题。
lethal:adj.致命的,致死的;n.致死因子;
So let me start with some good news. 那么我们先由积极的谈起。
Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history. 事实是,我们现今生活在人类历史上最和平的年代。
Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict is actually at an all-time low . 司提芬?朋克和其他人表明现今冲突的强度和频率 是处于一个怎样的历史低点。
intensity:n.强度;强烈;[电子]亮度;紧张; frequency:n.频率;发生率;重复率;频繁; all-time low:低谷;
Now, Gaza, Syria , Sudan, Ukraine , as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific , they represent a relatively small blip upwards in a 50-year-long secular decline . 目前,加沙、叙利亚、苏丹、乌克兰 这些国家的冲突可怕恐怖, 在暴力持续下降50年之后, 这只是一个相对较小的往上攀升的点。
Syria:n.叙利亚共和国; Ukraine:n.乌克兰(原苏联一加盟共和国,现已独立); ghastly:adj.可怕的;惨白的;惊人的;极坏的;adv.恐怖地;惨白地; conflicts:n.冲突; v.抵触; horrific:adj.可怕的;令人毛骨悚然的; represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; blip:n.(在雷达屏幕显示出的)物体光点; upwards:adv.向上;在上部;向上游; secular:adj.世俗的; n.修道院外的教士,(对宗教家而言的)俗人; decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide . 此外,我们注意到凶杀案大大减少。
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; reduction:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图; homicide:n.杀人;杀人犯;
Manuel Eisner and others have shown that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder, especially in the West. 曼纽尔?艾斯纳和其他人发现 凶杀案下降到令人难以置信的数百年来的低点, 特别是在西方地区。
incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago. 现今大部分的北部城市比一百年前安全一百倍。
These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder -- are amongst the most extraordinary , if unheralded , accomplishments of human history, and we should be really excited, right? 武装冲突减少了,谋杀犯罪减少了, 这是最为了不起的事实, 若是旷古未有,亦是人类历史的成就, 我们应该为此感到兴奋,对吧？
amongst:prep.在…之中;在…当中(等于among); extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; unheralded:adj.未事先宣布的;没料到的;未被承认的; accomplishments:n.成就;成绩;才艺;技艺;完成;(accomplishment的复数)
Well, yeah, we should. 没错,我们应该。
There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us. 只是有一个问题:这两个祸害还是跟着我们。
scourges:vt.鞭打;蹂躏;严斥;痛斥;n.鞭;灾祸;鞭子;苦难的根源;
You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls -- die violently every single year. 大家看,每年有52.5万人, 无论男女老少,死于暴力。
violently:adv.猛烈地,激烈地;极端地;
Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently. 我、基思?克劳斯和其他人在做的一个研究表明 5到6万人死于战区暴力。
The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones. 其余大约50万人死于冲突区域之外。
In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war. 换而言之,非战争暴力致死的人数是战争致死的十倍。
What's more, violence is moving south, to Latin America and the Caribbean , to parts of Central and Southern Africa, and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia. 此外,暴力正往南部地区迁移, 移往拉丁美洲、加勒比海地区, 移往部分中非和南非地区, 移往部分中东和中亚地区。
Caribbean:adj.加勒比海的;加勒比人的;加勒比语的;n.加勒比海; Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部);
Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world are right here in Latin America, 13 in Brazil , and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city, with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people. 世界上50个最危险的城市当中 有40个就在拉丁美洲, 13个在巴西, 当中最最危险的,是圣佩德罗苏拉,洪都拉斯第二大城市, 每10万人中就有187人被谋杀,凶杀率实为惊人,
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); Pedro:彼得牌戏(一种纸牌戏) staggering:adj.惊人的; v.蹒跚; (stagger的现在分词)
That's 23 times the global average. 是世界平均值的23倍。
Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically , it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography , because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat, like Thomas Friedman likes to say. 如果暴力正在重新定位, 它亦正按世界新地形重新定形, 因为对于城市来说,地球不是平的, 像托马斯?弗里德曼常说,
geographically:adv.在地理上;地理学上; reconfigured:vt.重新配置; topography:n.地势;地形学;地志;
It's spiky . 世界尖锐棘手的很。
spiky:adj.大钉一般的;装有大钉的;尖刻的;易怒的;有穗的;
The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history, and it all happened so fast. 城市主导城市生活主要方式 是历史上最不寻常的人口结构逆转之一, 而发生得惊人之快。
dominance:n.优势;统治;支配; urban:adj.城市的;都市的;城镇的;都市音乐的; demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的; reversals:n.逆转;[法]撤销(reversal的复数);
You all know the figures, right? 大家都知道这些数字,对吧？
There's 7.3 billion people in the world today; there will be 9.6 billion by 2050. 现今世界人口73亿人; 2050年将会有96亿人。
But consider this one fact: 但大家想想这一个现实:
In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities, today it's one in two, and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there. 在18世纪,每三十个人中就有一个人住在城市, 今天是每两个人有一个人住城市, 将来基本每个人都住在城市。
virtually:adv.事实上,几乎;实质上;
And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable . 城市化的扩张既不会平坦,也不会公平。
expansion:n.扩张;膨胀;扩展;扩大; urbanization:n.都市化;文雅化; equitable:adj.公平的,公正的;平衡法的;
The vast majority , 90 percent, will be happening in the South, in cities of the South. 90%的城市变迁扩张 会发生在南部地区,在南部的城市。
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人:
So urban geographers and demographers , they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities that predicts violence, no. 城市地理学家和人口学家告诉我们 一个城市的大小或密度 不一定会造成暴力。
geographers:n.地理学者; demographers:n.[统计]人口统计学家,人口学家; necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地; density:n.密度; predicts:vt.预报,预言;预知;vi.作出预言;作预料,作预报;
Tokyo, with 35 million people, is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world. 东京有3千5百万人口, 是世界上最大的大都市之一,也被认为是最安全的大都市之一。
No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters. 与暴力相关的不是大小或密度,而是城市化的速度。
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility. 我称之为涡轮城市化,脆弱性的关键驱动因素之一。
When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities, and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi . 你想到这些城市的惊人扩张, 你再想想涡轮城市化,再想想卡拉奇。
Karachi:n.卡拉奇(巴基斯坦港市);
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling , bustling city. 卡拉奇在1947年有约50万人,是一个繁忙的城市。
hustling:v.猛推;催促(某人);兜售,取得;(hustle的现在分词) bustling:adj.熙熙攘攘的;忙乱的;
Today, it's 21 million people, and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP, it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia. 今日,卡拉奇有2千1百万人, 占有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四, 亦是南亚最暴力的城市之一。
three quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三;
Dhaka , Lagos, Kinshasa, these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s. 达卡、拉各斯、金沙萨 现在这些城市比19世纪50年代时庞大40倍。
Dhaka:n.达卡(孟加拉首都);
Now take a look at New York. 我们在看看纽约。
take a look at:看一看;检查;
The Big Apple , it took 150 years to get to eight million people. 纽约用了150年来收居八百万人。
Big Apple:n.纽约市;
S?o Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval . 墨西哥城的圣保罗用来15年时间就做到了。
interval:n.间歇;音程;休息时间;(其他事情)穿插出现的间隙;
Now, what do these medium , large, mega-, and hypercities look like? 这些超大中小城市是怎样的城市？
medium:n.(传播信息的)媒介;手段;工具;方法;adj.中等的;中号的;
What is their profile ? 这些城市的相貌如何？
profile:n.轮廓;简介;形象;外形;v.扼要介绍;概述;写简介;
Well, for one thing , they're young. 首先,这些城市都很年轻。
for one thing:首先;一则;
What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge . 许多城市都出现年轻人口膨胀。
bulge:n.胀;膨胀;凸出部分;v.膨胀;凸起;
Now, this is actually a good news story. 这算是好消息。
It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates. 因为这意味着幼儿死亡率下降了。
reductions:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图;(reduction的复数) mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch. 但是年轻人口膨胀,我们得小心看待。
What it basically means is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones. 简单来说, 生活在脆弱城市中的年轻人比例 比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; proportion:n.比例;部分;份额;均衡;v.摊派;使相称;
In some fragile cities, 75 percent of the population is under the age of 30. 在一些脆弱城市, 75%人口年龄在30岁以下,
under the age of:在年龄之下;16岁以下;
Think about that: Three in four people are under 30. 想想:每四个人中就有三个在30岁以下。
It's like Palo Alto on steroids . 就像让帕罗奥图服用类固醇。
Alto:n.女低音;男声最高音;中音乐器;adj.中音部的; steroids:n.甾族化合物;类固醇;(steroid的复数)
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example, in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old. 看看索马里的首都摩加迪沙。 在摩加迪沙,平均年龄是16岁。
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul. 类似的有孟加拉的达卡、东帝汶的帝力、阿富汗的喀布尔。
Ditto:n.同上;同上符号;很相似的人或物;vt.重复;照抄;adv.同上地;adj.相似的;
And Tokyo? It's 46. 东京呢？平均年龄46岁。
Same for most Western European cities. 大部分西欧城市亦一样。
Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence. 不是年轻人就可以带来暴力。
That's one factor among many, but youthfulness combined with unemployment , lack of education, and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition . 那只是多个因素中的其中之一, 但如果青年,再加上失业、缺乏学历, 如果还是男性青年,那就是不得了了。
factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入; youthfulness:n.少壮; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数; kicker:n.踢者;爱发牢骚的人;喷射器; deadly:adj.致命的;非常的;死一般的;adv.非常;如死一般地; proposition:n.提议;待处理的问题;任务;(美国)法律修正议案;见解;命题;v.向...提议;
They're statistically correlated , all those risk factors , with youth, and they tend to relate to increases in violence. 这些因素都在统计学上的相关因素 所有风险因素发生在青年身上,会使暴力发生率上升。
statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上; correlated:v.相互关联影响;相互依赖;(correlate的过去式和过去分词) factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons, you know what I'm talking about, right? 在座如果有儿子出于青年阶段, 就会懂我的意思。
Just imagine your boy without any structure with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about. 想象一下您的儿子,什么都没有, 经常跟不守规矩的朋友在一起,四处闯闹。
unruly:adj.不守规矩的;任性的;难驾驭的; cavorting:v.欢跃;欢蹦乱跳;嬉戏;放荡地玩乐;(cavort的现在分词)
Now, take away the parents, take away the education, limit the education possibilities, sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns, and sit back and watch the fireworks . 现在,想象他们没有父母的教导, 没有教育背景,教育机会受到限制, 在添点毒品、酒精、枪械, 想想他们会变成怎样。
sprinkle:v.撒;洒;把…撒(或洒)在…上;用…点缀;下小雨;n.小雨; alcohol:n.酒精;乙醇;含酒精饮料; fireworks:n.烟花;烟火表演;激烈的言辞;令人激动的行动;(firework的复数)
The implications are disconcerting . 后果可能是不堪设想的。
implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数); disconcerting:adj.令人不安的; v.使不安; (disconcert的现在分词)
Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years. 在巴西,人均寿命是73.6岁。
life expectancy:预期寿命;
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there. 如果你住里约热内卢,抱歉,活少两岁。
shave:v.刮胡子;(尤指)刮脸;(少量地)削减;n.修面;刮脸;剃须;
But if you're young, you're uneducated , you lack employment, you're black, and you're male, your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old. 但要是你年轻、没受过教育、 没有工作、是黑人、还是男性黑人, 你的年均寿命只能直降到60岁以下。
uneducated:adj.无知的;未受教育的;v.未受教育(uneducate的过去式和过去分词);
There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers in this country. 年轻和暴力是这个国家的头号杀手, 这是有原因的。
Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities. 城市不是那么不可救药。
doom:n.厄运;毁灭;劫数;死亡;v.使…注定失败(或遭殃、死亡等); gloom:n.忧郁;阴暗;v.变阴暗;变忧沉;使黑暗;使忧郁;
After all, cities are hubs of innovation , dynamism , prosperity , excitement , connectivity . 毕竟城市是创新的温床, 充满活力、前景、刺激、人际关系。
hubs:n.枢纽;中心(hub的复数);毂; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; dynamism:n.活力;动态;物力论;推动力;精神动力作用; prosperity:n.繁荣,成功; excitement:n.兴奋;刺激;令人兴奋的事物; connectivity:n.[数]连通性;
They're where the smart people gather. 城市里都聚满了聪明人。
And those young people I just mentioned, they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before. 而我刚刚所说的年轻人, 他们认识的数码技术和技术比谁都多。
digitally:adv.数位; savvy:n.悟性;理解能力;懂行(的人);v.理解;懂;vi.理解;知道;
And this explosion , the Internet, and mobile technology , means that the digital divide separating the North and the South between countries and within them, is shrinking . 知识爆炸、因特网、移动通信技术 使南北部地区国家之间的数码技术差异逐步缩小, 也使南北部地区国家内的数码技术差异逐步缩小。
explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增; mobile:n.手机;汽车;移动电话;adj.活跃的;可动的; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词)
But as we've heard so many times, these new technologies are dual-edged, right? 但这些新技术是双刃剑, 这我们都耳熟能详。
technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
Take the case of law enforcement . 拿法律实施来举例。
enforcement:n.执行,实施;强制;
Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data to anticipate crime. 全球的警察开始使用遥感技术和海量数据 来预测犯罪。
remote sensing:遥感; anticipate:v.预期,期望;占先,抢先;提前使用;
Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens. 一些警察能够在犯罪发生前就预测到罪犯的暴力行为。
cops:n.警察;v.遭受;忍受;注意到;(cop的第三人称单数和复数)
The future crime scenario , it's here today, and we've got to be careful. 将来犯罪的场景,就在今天, 我们需要小心提防。
scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本;
We have to manage the issues of the public safety against rights to individual privacy . 我们必须协调好公共安全问题 防止个人隐私权利受到侵害。
issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; privacy:n.隐私;秘密;隐居;隐居处;
But it's not just the cops who are innovating . 在创新的,不只是警察。
innovating:n.创新;v.革新(innovate的现在分词);创立;
We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups who are engaging in local and global collective action, and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution . 我们听过坊间社会团体的举办不少出众的活动, 他们从事本地和全球的集体活动, 可以引起数字化抗议和真实革命。
civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; engaging:adj.有趣的; v.吸引住(注意力、兴趣); (engage的现在分词) collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词; protest:n.抗议;抗议书(或行动);反对;v.(公开)反对;抗议;申辩; revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环;
But most worrying of all are criminal gangs who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace . 但最令人担忧的是 犯罪团体利用网络开始侵略网络空间。
gangs:n.帮派(gang的复数);v.成帮结伙;合伙行动(gang的三单形式); colonize:vt.将…开拓为殖民地; vi.开拓殖民地; cyberspace:n.网络空间;赛博空间;
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working, groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel are hijacking social media . 我在墨西哥的华雷斯城工作, 那里的塞塔斯暴力犯罪集团和锡纳罗亚贩毒集团等集团, 一直劫持社交媒体。
Zetas:n.希腊语第六个字母; cartel:n.卡特尔;企业联合;垄断联盟;俘虏交换条约; hijacking:n.劫持(hijack的现在分词); media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉;
They're using it to recruit , to sell their products, to coerce , to intimidate and to kill. 他们利用社交媒体来招兵买马,贩卖他们的产品, 胁迫、恐吓和杀害他人。
recruit:n.新兵; v.吸收(新成员); (通过招募)组成; coerce:vt.强制,迫使; intimidate:vt.恐吓,威胁;胁迫;
Violence is going virtual. 暴力在走向虚拟世界。
So this is just a partial sketch of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation. 现今形势多变复杂 这不过是其中一面。
partial:adj.部分的;不完整的;片面的;有偏见的; sketch:n.素描;草图;速写;概述;v.概述;简述;画素描;画速写; fast-moving:adj.移动迅速的; dynamic:n.动力; adj.充满活力的; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
I mean, there are many other megarisks that are going to define fragility in our time, not least income inequality, poverty, climate change, impunity . 超级风险还有许多, 并且会直接影响我们时代的脆弱性, 也会影响当今的收入不均、 贫穷、气候变化、罪犯逍遥法外等问题。
impunity:n.不受惩罚;无患;[法]免罚;
But we're facing a stark dilemma where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards. 但我们面临着一个严峻的窘境: 有些城市会繁荣发展促进全球的进步, 但也有城市会跌跌绊绊拉大家的后腿。
dilemma:n.困境;进退两难;两刀论法; thrive:v.繁荣;茁壮成长;蓬勃发展;兴旺发达; stumble:v.踌躇,蹒跚;失足;犯错;n.绊倒;蹒跚而行;
If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation. 如果要改变这种现象,我们需要开展新对话。
We can't only focus on those cities that work, the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs, the Dubais, the Shanghais. 我们不能只关注那些发展好的城市, 像新加坡、吉隆坡、 杜拜、上海;
We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation. 我们要与脆弱城市对话。
One way to do this might be to start twinning our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones, kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't. 方法之一可以是 将我们较健康富有的城市与较脆弱的城市结对, 开展相互学习合作的过程, 分享经验,分享成功与失败。
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; collaboration:n.合作;勾结;通敌;
A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles, where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members, offering tutoring, education, 一个很好的例子是萨尔瓦多和洛杉矶。 圣萨尔瓦多市长和洛杉矶市长携手合作 组织前犯罪团体成员与目前的犯罪团体成员一起, 开放教育班、提供教育、
collaborating:v.合作;协作;通敌;勾结敌人;(collaborate的现在分词)
and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces , and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador, once the world's most violent city, by 50 percent. 并且不断劝谕停火停战, 圣萨尔瓦多的凶杀率显着下降了, 过去世界上最暴力的城市, 凶杀率下降五成。
incubate:vt.孵化;培养;温育;逐渐发展;vi.孵化;酝酿;n.孵育物; cease-fires:n.停火; truces:n.停战;休战;休战协定;vt.以休战结束;停止争执;vi.停战;
We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots. 我们也可以关注热门城市、热门地点。
Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities. 地点对城市暴力形成有着根本影响。
location:n.地方;地点;位置;定位 fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地
Did you know that between one and two percent of street addresses in any fragile city can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime? 在座是否知道 脆弱城市中1-2%的街道 可以预测该城市99%的暴力犯罪。
Take the case of S?o Paulo, where I've been working. 拿我生活的圣保罗为例。
It's gone from being Brazil's most dangerous city to one of its safest, and it did this by doubling down on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform , and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years. 过去这是巴西最危险的城市,现在确实最安全的城市, 方法是将加大力量, 双倍增加信息收集、热点绘图、警方改革, 在十年内凶杀率因此下降70%。
reform:v.改革;改进;改良;(使)悔改;n.改革;改良;改善;
We also got to focus on those hot people. 我们也需要关注热点人物。
It's tragic , but being young, unemployed , uneducated, male, increases the risks of being killed and killing. 年轻、失业、无教育、男性 虽然不幸,但却可增加凶杀机率。
tragic:adj.悲剧的;悲痛的,不幸的; unemployed:adj.失业的;下岗的;n.(集合词)失业者;
We have to break this cycle of violence and get in there early with our children, our youngest children, and valorize them, not stigmatize them. 我们必须打破这条暴力链, 早期与儿童和青年相处, 稳定他们,而不是侮辱他们。
valorize:v.(政府)以给予各种补助的形式稳定(维持)(商品)价格; stigmatize:vt.诬蔑;玷污;给…打上烙印;
There's wonderful work that's happening that I've been involved with in Kingston , Jamaica and right here in Rio, which is putting education, employment, recreation up front for these high-risk groups, and as a result, we're seeing violence going down in their communities . 最近我在致力的一项工作 在牙买加的金斯敦、在里约热内卢, 将教育、就业、娱乐 带给这些高风险人群, 因此这些社区的暴力下降了。
involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) Kingston:n.金斯敦(牙买加首都); Jamaica:n.牙买加(拉丁美洲一个国家); recreation:n.娱乐;消遣;娱乐活动;游戏; high-risk:adj.高危险度的; communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数)
We've also got to make our cities safer, more inclusive , and livable for all. 我们也发现城市变得更加安全,更加包容,更加宜居。
inclusive:adj.包括的,包含的; livable:adj.适于居住的;生活过得有价值的;
The fact is, social cohesion matters. 事实是,社会凝聚力相当重要。
cohesion:n.凝聚;结合;[力]内聚力;
Mobility matters in our cities. 流动性对城市相当重要。
Mobility:n.移动性;机动性;[电子]迁移率;
We've got to get away from this model of segregation , exclusion , and cities with walls. 我们必须要让我们的城市 远离种族隔离、排斥他人的模式。
segregation:n.隔离,分离;种族隔离; exclusion:n.排除;排斥;驱逐;被排除在外的事物;
My favorite example of how to do this comes from Medellín. 一个很好的例子是麦德林。
When I lived in Colombia in the late 1990s, 九十年代末我住在哥伦比亚,
Medellín was the murder capital of the world, but it changed course, and it did this by deliberately investing in its low-income and most violent areas and integrating them with the middle-class ones through a network of cable cars, 麦德林是当时世界经典的凶杀城市,但是这个城市后来改变了, 这是因为刻意投资在低收入高暴力的地区 与中产阶级社区相融合, 通过缆车网络的接驳、
deliberately:adv.故意地;谨慎地;慎重地; investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词) integrating:v.(使)合并,成为一体;(使)加入,融入群体;(integrate的现在分词) middle-class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的; cable:n.电缆; v.打电报; (用锚链,缆索等)系住;
of public transport , and first-class infrastructure, and in the process, it dropped homicide by 79 percent in just under two decades. 公共交通的联系、一流基础设施的投入, 该城市在二十年内凶杀率下降79%。
public transport:n.公共交通;公交车辆; first-class:adj.优秀的;第一流的;adv.优秀地;最好地;第一流地;
And finally , there's technology. 最后,还有技术。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
Technology has enormous promise but also peril . 技术有巨大的好处,也有巨大的危害。
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的; peril:n.危险;冒险;vt.危及;置…于险境;
We've seen examples here of extraordinary innovation, and much of it coming from this room, 我们举了一些创新例子, 很多都是出自这个房间。
The police are engaging in predictive analytics . 警察致力于预测分析。
predictive:adj.预言性的;成为前兆的; analytics:n.[化学][数]分析学;解析学;
Citizens are engaging in new crowdsourcing solutions. 市民致力于新的公众解决方案。
crowdsourcing:众包;群众外包;众包模式;
Even my own group is involved in developing applications to provide more accountability over police and increase safety among citizens. 我自己的团队也在开发程序, 提供更多可信破案资讯,为市民带来更多安全。
accountability:n.有义务;有责任;可说明性;
But we need to be careful. 但是我们需要小心提防。
If I have one single message for you, it's this: 如果我可以向您传达一个信息,那会是:
There is nothing inevitable about lethal violence, and we can make our cities safer. 暴力致死不是不可避免的, 我们可以将城市变得更安全。
inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的;
Folks, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence in half within our lifetime. 在座各位,我们现在有机会 在我们有生之年将凶杀率减少一半。
homicidal:adj.杀人的;行凶的;有杀人嗜好的;杀气腾腾的;
So I have just one question: 所以我只有一个问题:
What are we waiting for? 我们还在等什么？
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）