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RobDunbar_2010Z-_在海洋和冰层中追寻远古气候_
If you really want to understand the problem that we're facing with the oceans, you have to think about the biology at the same time you think about the physics. 如果你想真正了解 我们所面对的海洋问题, 你就必须在考虑到物理学的同时 也考虑到生物学。
biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时;
We can't solve the problems unless we start studying the ocean in a very much more interdisciplinary way. 我们不可能解决问题, 除非我们开始用一种 跨学科的方式来研究海洋。
interdisciplinary:adj.各学科间的;
So I'm going to demonstrate that through discussion of some of the climate change things that are going on in the ocean. 所以我会通过对发生在海洋中的 一些气候变化的讨论来阐释我的观点。
demonstrate:vt.证明;展示;论证;vi.示威;
We'll look at sea level rise. 我们会看到海平面上升。
sea level:海平面;
We'll look at ocean warming. 我们会看到海洋变暖。
And then the last thing on the list there, ocean acidification -- if you were to ask me, you know, "What do you worry about the most? 那么在这张单子的最下面是,海洋酸化—— 如果你要问我,“你最担心发生什么？
acidification:n.[化学]酸化;成酸性;使…发酸;
What frightens you?" 什么最让你害怕？”
frightens:v.使惊吓;使惊恐;(frighten的第三人称单数)
for me, it's ocean acidification. 对于我来说,那就是海洋酸化。
And this has come onto the stage pretty recently . 而且这件事已迫在眉睫。
recently:adv.最近;新近;
So I will spend a little time at the end. 所以最后我会花一点时间来讲它。
I was in Copenhagen in December like a number of you in this room. 12月份我在哥本哈根 就像你们一样,在这样的房间里。
Copenhagen:n.哥本哈根(丹麦首都);
And I think we all found it, simultaneously , an eye-opening and a very frustrating experience. 然后我想我们大家都发现这是 一次令人大开眼界 同时也非常令人沮丧的经历。
simultaneously:adv.同时地; eye-opening:adj.令人瞠目的;使人开眼界的;有启发性的; frustrating:adj.令人沮丧的;v.使沮丧;(frustrate的现在分词)
I sat in this large negotiation hall, at one point, for three or four hours, without hearing the word "oceans" one time. 我坐在这样大的交流厅里, 从某种程度上讲,大概坐了有3到4个小时, 却听不到“海洋”这个词。
negotiation:n.谈判;转让;顺利的通过;
It really wasn't on the radar screen. 它确实不在讨论范围内。
radar:n.雷达;
The nations that brought it up when we had the speeches of the national leaders -- it tended to be the leaders of the small island states, the low-lying island states. 当轮到各个国家的领导人发言时, 某个国家才把这个话题提出来。 这好像是那些小的岛国 也就是那些低海拔岛国的的领导人。
low-lying:adj.低洼的;
And by this weird quirk of alphabetical order of the nations, a lot of the low-lying states, like Kiribati and Nauru, they were seated at the very end of these immensely long rows. 这些低海拔的国家, 如基里巴斯和瑙鲁, 因为按照字母顺序排列国家的原因, 他们（的领导人）坐在 这些长长队伍中非常靠后的位置。
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神; quirk:n.怪癖;急转;借口; alphabetical:adj.字母的;[计]依字母顺序的; immensely:adv.极大地;无限地;广大地;庞大地;
You know, they were marginalized in the negotiation room. 大家知道,在这个交流大厅里 他们被边缘化了。
marginalized:使边缘化;忽略;排斥(marginalize的过去式和过去分词);
One of the problems is coming up with the right target. 问题之一就是 选择正确的目标。
It's not clear what the target should be. 我们还不清楚我们的目标是什么。
And how can you figure out how to fix something if you don't have a clear target? 如果没有清晰的目标, 我们怎么去搞明白我们应如何解决问题？
Now, you've heard about "two degrees": that we should limit temperature rise to no more than two degrees. 现在,大家已经听说“2摄氏度”: 也就是说我们不应该让气温上升超过2摄氏度。
no more than:adv.只是;仅仅;
But there's not a lot of science behind that number. 但在这个数字的背后并没有很充分的科学道理。
We've also talked about concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere . 我们也谈到 在大气层中二氧化碳的集聚浓度问题。
concentrations:n.关注点;[土壤]浓聚物(concentration的复数); carbon dioxide:二氧化碳; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格;
Should it be 450? Should it be 400? 它应该是450ppm？或是400ppm？（注:ppm即百万分之,这里用作浓度计量单位）
There's not a lot of science behind that one either. 在那个数字背后也没有很多的科学道理。
Most of the science that is behind these numbers, these potential targets, is based on studies on land. 在这些数字背后的大多数科学道理, 这些潜在的目标, 依据的是陆地上的研究。
potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
And I would say, for the people that work in the ocean and think about what the targets should be, we would argue that they must be much lower. 而且我会说,对那些研究海洋 并且思索着设定什么样的目标的人来说, 我们会辩驳说,这些数据必须要更低。
You know, from an oceanic perspective , 450 is way too high. 大家知道,从海洋的视角来看, 450ppm未免太高了。
oceanic:adj.海洋的;海洋产出的;在海洋中生活的;广阔无垠的; perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的;
Now there's compelling evidence that it really needs to be 350. 现在有非常显著的证据表明, 这个浓度应该是350ppm。
compelling:adj.引人入胜的; v.强迫; (compel的现在分词) evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
We are, right now, at 390 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere. 我们当前大气层里二氧化碳的浓度 是390ppm。
We're not going to put the brakes on in time to stop at 450, so we've got to accept we're going to do an overshoot , and the discussion as we go forward has to focus on how far the overshoot goes and what's the pathway back to 350. 我们并不打算及时踩刹车以停在450ppm, 所以我们得接受二氧化碳浓度将冲过头的事实, 并且正如我们将要进行的讨论 必须集中在这个“头”究竟过了多少, 我们如何能够让它降低到350。
put the brakes on:刹车;使停止或减缓; overshoot:vt.超越; vi.射击越标; n.超越目标;
Now, why is this so complicated ? 那么,为什么这个事情如此复杂？
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
Why don't we know some of these things a little bit better? 我们为什么不能对这些事知之更深呢？
Well, the problem is that we've got very complicated forces in the climate system. 嗯,问题就在于 在气候系统中存在非常复杂的动力源。
There's all kinds of natural causes of climate change. 所有种类的自然力都能导致气候的变化。
There's air-sea interactions . 这里有大气--海洋交互作用。
air-sea:adj.海空的;网络释义:由空至海;海气;空海联运; interactions:n.[计]交互,相互作用;相互交流;干扰;(interaction复数)
Here in Galapagos, we're affected by El Ninos and La Nina. 就在加拉帕戈斯群岛, 我们被厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象困扰。
But the entire planet warms up when there's a big El Nino. 但是当发生大型厄尔尼诺现象时,整个地球都会变暖。
Volcanoes eject aerosols into the atmosphere. 火山将气溶胶喷射进大气层。
Volcanoes:n.火山爆发,火山;火山群(volcano复数); eject:vt.喷射;驱逐,逐出; aerosols:n.[物化]气溶胶,喷雾器(aerosol的复数形式);
That changes our climate. 那会改变我们的气候。
The ocean contains most of the exchangeable heat on the planet. 海洋包含了这个星球上大部分的可交换热量。
exchangeable:adj.可交换的;可兑换的;可替换的;
So anything that influences how ocean surface waters mix with the deep water changes the ocean of the planet. 所以,任何事情, 只要它影响了海洋表面水层和深海水层的混合 它就会改变海洋。
influences:n.影响; v.影响;
And we know the solar output's not constant through time. 而且我们知道,随着时间的变化,太阳能的输出并不恒定。
So those are all natural causes of climate change. 因此这些都是影响气候变化的自然因素。
And then we have the human-induced causes of climate change as well. 然后,我们又有了人类诱发的 影响气候变化的因素。
We're changing the characteristics of the surface of the land, the reflectivity . 我们正在改变地表的某些特征, 比如反射率。
characteristics:n.特征;特点;品质;(characteristic的复数) reflectivity:n.(材料对光或辐射的)反射率;
We inject our own aerosols into the atmosphere, and we have trace gases, and not just carbon dioxide -- it's methane , ozone , oxides of sulfur and nitrogen . 我们把自己制造的气溶胶发射到大气层里, 我们也排放痕量（即微量）气体,不仅仅是二氧化碳—— 包括甲烷,臭氧, 硫和氮氧化物。
inject:v.注入;注射; trace:追溯,追踪 methane:n.[有化]甲烷;[能源]沼气; ozone:n.[化学]臭氧;新鲜的空气; oxides:n.[化学]氧化物(oxide的复数); sulfur:vt.用硫磺处理;n.硫磺;硫磺色; nitrogen:n.氮;氮气;
So here's the thing. It sounds like a simple question. 所以,这就是事实。这听起来是很简单的问题。
Is CO2 produced by man's activities causing the planet to warm up? 是人类活动制造的二氧化碳 造成了全球变暖么？
But to answer that question, to make a clear attribution to carbon dioxide, you have to know something about all of these other agents of change. 要回答这个问题, 并对二氧化碳进行一个明确的归属, 你还必须了解一些 造成变化的所有这些其它的媒介。
attribution:n.归因;属性;归属; agents:n.代理人,经纪人;原动力;(agent的复数)
But the fact is we do know a lot about all of those things. 不过事实上,就这些而言我们懂得够多了。
You know, thousands of scientists have been working on understanding all of these man-made causes and the natural causes. 大家知道,数以千计的科学家 致力于研究 所有这些人为因素 和自然因素。
man-made:adj.人造的;人工的;合成的;
And we've got it worked out, and we can say, "Yes, CO2 is causing the planet to warm up now." 我们也已经搞明白了,并且可以说, “是的,目前二氧化碳正在导致这个星球变暖。”
Now, we have many ways to study natural variability . 目前我们有很多办法来研究自然环境的变化。
variability:n.可变性,变化性;[生物][数]变异性;
I'll show you a few examples of this now. 下面我将给大家展示一些案例。
This is the ship that I spent the last three months on in the Antarctic . 这是一艘船,我近三个月来都乘着它待在南极地带。
Antarctic:adj.南极(地方)的;n.南极地区;网络释义:南极的;南极区;南极地带的;
It's a scientific drilling vessel . 这是一艘科学钻探船。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; vessel:n.器皿;轮船;脉管;大船;
We go out for months at a time and drill into the sea bed to recover sediments that tell us stories of climate change, right. 我们不时地会乘它外出几个月,到海床上 钻探,回收沉积物, 就是那些能告诉我们气候变化的沉积物,是的。
go out for:努力争取;(运动员,运动队)尽力参加选拔赛; sediments:n.[地质]沉积物,[化学]沉淀物(sediment的复数); v.沉积(sediment的第三人称单数);
Like one of the ways to understand our greenhouse future is to drill down in time to the last period where we had CO2 double what it is today. 要了解我们的“温室未来”的方法之一 就是及时钻探到 二氧化碳浓度是现在两倍 的最近的那个年代。
greenhouse:n.温室;暖房;
And so that's what we've done with this ship. 那么,这就是我们用这条船做的事情。
This was -- this is south of the Antarctic Circle . 这曾是——这是南极圈的南面。
Antarctic Circle:n.南极圈;
It looks downright tropical there. 它看起来简直就是热带。
downright:adj.明白的;直率的;显明的;adv.完全,彻底;全然; tropical:adj.热带的;热情的;酷热的;
One day where we had calm seas and sun, which was the reason I could get off the ship. 有一天大海很平静,阳光也很温和, 这也是我为什么能够下船的原因。
Most of the time it looked like this. 大多数时间它都像这个样子。
We had a waves up to 50 ft. 海浪高达50英尺,
and winds averaging about 40 knots for most of the voyage and up to 70 or 80 knots. 大多数航程 能达到40海里 甚至高达70到80海里。
knots:n.发髻:节子:节疤:v.把…打成结(knot的第三人称单数和复数) voyage:v.航行;远行;(尤指)远航;n.航行;(尤指)航海;
So that trip just ended, and I can't show you too many results from that right now, but we'll go back one more year, to another drilling expedition I've been involved in. 所以那趟旅行就结束了, 眼下我也不能给大家展示太多结果, 不过我们会在一年多后回来, 到我参与的另一个钻探旅程中。
expedition:n.远征;探险队;迅速; involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词)
This was led by Ross Powell and Tim Naish. 这个团队由罗斯鲍威尔和蒂姆奈什领导。
Powell:n.鲍威尔(英国物理学家);
It's the ANDRILL project. 这是ANDRILL项目。
And we made the very first bore hole through the largest floating ice shelf on the planet. 然后我们在世界上最大的浮冰层上 打出了第一个钻孔。
bore:v.钻孔;使烦扰;n.孔;令人讨厌的人; ice shelf:n.冰架(与陆地相接的厚层浮动冰体);
This is a crazy thing, this big drill rig wrapped in a blanket to keep everybody warm, drilling at temperatures of minus 40. 这是一件疯狂的事情,这个大型钻机裹着一条毯子 用来给所有人保暖, 而我们在零下40度进行钻探。
wrapped:adj.极高兴的;十分满意的;v.用…包裹;用…缠绕;(wrap的过去分词和过去式) minus:prep.减,减去;n.负号,减号;不足;负数;adj.减的;负的;
And we drilled in the Ross Sea. 我们在罗斯海钻探过。
That's the Ross Sea Ice Shelf on the right there. 那就是罗斯海冰架。
So, this huge floating ice shelf the size of Alaska comes from West Antarctica. 所以,这个相当于阿拉斯加大小的 巨型浮冰层 来自于西南极洲。
Now, West Antarctica is the part of the continent where the ice is grounded on sea floor as much as 2,000 meters deep. 西南极洲就是南极洲的一部分, 这部分的冰层着陆在深达2000米 的海床上面。
continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的;
So that ice sheet is partly floating, and it's exposed to the ocean, to the ocean heat. 因此这块冰层一部分是浮动的, 而且它暴露在海洋中,接受着海洋热能。
ice sheet:n.冰原;冰盖; exposed:adj.无遮蔽的; v.暴露; (expose的过去分词和过去式)
This is the part of Antarctica that we worry about. 这就是我们所担心的那部分南极洲。
Because it's partly floating, you can imagine, is sea level rises a little bit, the ice lifts off the bed, and then it can break off and float north. 因为它一部分是浮动的,你能够想像, 海平面上升一点, 这块冰就脱离海床了,然后它就会碎裂,飘向北方。
When that ice melts , sea level rises by six meters. 当这块冰融化,海平面会上升6米。
melts:n.[冶]熔体(melt的复数);v.熔化(melt的第三人称单数形式);
So we drill back in time to see how often that's happened, and exactly how fast that ice can melt. 因此我们进行“回溯”钻探,看看这种事情多久发生一次, 以及冰层融化的有多快。
Here's the cartoon on the left there. 左边是动画。
We drilled through a hundred meters of floating ice shelf then through 900 meters of water and then 1,300 meters into the sea floor. 我们钻入了浮冰层一百米, 然后通过了900米的水层, 然后到达1300米进入海床。
So it's the deepest geological bore hole ever drilled. 因此这是有史以来钻探的最深的地质钻孔。
geological:adj.地质的,地质学的;
It took about 10 years to put this project together. 营建这个工程花了大约10年左右。
And here's what we found. 这就是我们所发现的。
Now, there's 40 scientists working on this project, and people are doing all kinds of really complicated and expensive analyses . 目前有40位科学家为这个项目忙碌, 他们在开展一切真正复杂 而且昂贵的分析。
analyses:n.分析;解析;分解;梗概(analysis的复数形式);
But it turns out, you know, the thing that told the best story was this simple visual description . 不过大家知道,能够把事情解释得最好的 往往是这最简单的视觉描述。
visual:adj.视觉的,视力的;栩栩如生的; description:n.说明;形容;描写(文字);类型;
You know, we saw this in the core samples as they came up. 你要知道,我们在核心样本中自然而然地发现了这些。
core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核;
We saw these alternations between sediments that look like this -- there's gravel and cobbles in there and a bunch of sand. 我们在沉积物中看到了 像这样的交替出现的痕迹-- 砾石、鹅卵石、 还有一些沙子。
alternations:n.变换;间隔;[农]轮种;[数]错列;(alternations是alternation的复数); gravel:n.碎石;砂砾;vt.用碎石铺;使船搁浅在沙滩上;使困惑; cobbles:n.鹅卵石(cobble的复数);v.拙劣地修补(cobbler的第三人称单数); a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆;
That's the kind of material in the deep sea. 这就是在深海中的物质。
It can only get there if it's carried out by ice. 这些只能被冰块带到那里。
So we know there's an ice shelf overhead . 所以我们知道它上面有冰层。
overhead:n.开销;经常费用;经常开支;adj.头上方的;地面以上的;adv.在头上方;在空中
And that alternates with a sediment that looks like this. 然后沉积物就像这样交替出现。
alternates:n.接替人; v.交替;
This is absolutely beautiful stuff . 这绝对是漂亮的艺术品。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
This sediment is 100 percent made up of the shells of microscopic plants. 这个沉积物百分之百是由 微型植物的外壳构成的。
made up of:由…组成,由…构成; shells:n.壳;壳状物;炮弹;v.炮击;给…去壳(shell的第三人称单数和复数) microscopic:adj.微观的;用显微镜可见的;
And these plants need sunlight , so we know when we find that sediment there's no ice overhead. 这些植物需要阳光, 所以当我们发现这沉积物时, 我们知道原来它上面本没有冰。
sunlight:n.日光;
And we saw about 35 alternations between open water and ice-covered water, between gravels and these plant sediments. 我们在开放水域和冰层覆盖的水域中 看到大约35次这些砾石和 植物沉积物的交替变化。
ice-covered:冰封的; gravels:n.碎石;砂砾;vt.用碎石铺;使船搁浅在沙滩上;使困惑;
So what that means is, what it tells us is that the Ross Sea region , this ice shelf, melted back and formed anew about 35 times. 因此这就意味着,它告诉我们 罗斯海地区,这块冰盖, 融化后再重生了大约 35次。
region:n.地区;范围;部位; melted:v.(使)熔化,融化;(使)软化,变得温柔;(melt的过去分词和过去式) anew:重新,再
And this is in the past four million years. 这些发生于近400万年。
This was completely unexpected . 这完全出人意料。
unexpected:adj.意外的,想不到的;
Nobody imagined that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was this dynamic . 没人能想象得到西南极洲冰盖 曾经如此活跃。
dynamic:n.动力; adj.充满活力的;
In fact, the lore for many years has been, "The ice formed many tens of millions of years ago, and it's been there ever since." 实际上,我们多年的认知就是, “冰层在百万甚至千万年前就形成了, 它从一开始就在那里。”
lore:n.知识;学问;全部传说;(动物的)眼光知识;
And now we know that in our recent past it melted back and formed again, and sea level went up and down, six meters at a time. 现在我们知道了,在近代 它融化并且重生, 海平面时起时落,一次落差达6米。
What caused it? 什么原因导致其发生？
Well, we're pretty sure that it's very small changes in the amount of sunlight reaching Antarctica, just caused by natural changes in the orbit of the Earth. 呃,我们非常确信到达南极洲的太阳光量 变化非常小, 它由地球轨道上的自然环境变化引发。
orbit:n.轨道;眼眶;势力范围;生活常规;vi.盘旋;绕轨道运行;vt.绕…轨道而行;
But here's the key thing: you know, the other thing we found out is that the ice sheet passed a threshold , that the planet warmed up enough -- and the number's about one degree to one and a half degrees Centigrade -- the planet warmed up enough that it became ... 不过关键点是: 你要知道,我们发现了另外一件事, 那就是这个冰盖曾经越过一道槛, 这个星球曾暖到一定程度—— 温度上升了1度到1度半—— 这星球变暖到它变得。。。
threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值; Centigrade:adj.摄氏的;[仪]摄氏温度的;百分度的;
that ice sheet became very dynamic and was very easily melted. 变暖到冰层变得非常活跃 非常容易融化。
And you know what? 然后你们知道么？
We've actually changed the temperature in the last century just the right amount. 我们上个世纪实际的温度变化 正好是那个量。
So many of us are convinced now that West Antarctica, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is starting to melt. 所以我们中的很多人确信 现在西南极洲,西南极洲冰盖正在开始融化。
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式)
We do expect to see a sea-level rise on the order of one to two meters by the end of this century. 我们相信能够看到海平面上升, 这个世纪末将上升1到2米。
sea-level:海平面;
And it could be larger than that. 而且上升幅度有可能更大。
This is a serious consequence for nations like Kiribati, you know, where the average elevation is about a little over a meter above sea level. 对于像基里巴斯这样的国家来说, 这是非常严重的后果。 你要知道,它的平均海拔 只是1米多一点点。
consequence:n.结果;重要性;推论; elevation:n.高地;海拔;提高;崇高;正面图;
Okay, the second story takes place here in Galapagos. 好的,第二个故事发生在这里,加拉帕戈斯群岛。
This is a bleached coral , coral that died during the 1982-'83 El Nino. 这是一块漂白的珊瑚, 一块死于1982-83年厄尔尼诺现象的珊瑚礁。
bleached:adj.漂白的;v.(使)变白,漂白,退色(bleach的过去分词和过去式) coral:n.珊瑚;珊瑚虫;adj.珊瑚的;珊瑚色的;
This is from Champion Island. 这个来自冠军群岛。
It's about a meter tall Pavona clavus colony . 这是海拔约1米高的Pavona clavus珊瑚礁。
colony:n.殖民地;移民队;
And it's covered with algae . That's what happens. 它已被藻类所覆盖。这就是目前所发生的。
algae:n.[植]藻类;[植]海藻;
When these things die, immediately, organisms come in and encrust and live on that dead surface. 当这些生命凋谢, 马上有机体会进入, 并且覆盖它们,并在其表面生存。
organisms:n.[生物]生物体(organism的复数);[生物]有机体; encrust:vt.包上外壳;装饰外层;vi.结壳;
And so, when a coral colony is killed by an El Nino event, it leaves this indelible record. 那么,当一块珊瑚礁 被一次厄尔尼诺扼杀, 就留下了不可磨灭的印记。
indelible:adj.难忘的;擦不掉的;
You can go then and study corals and figure out how often do you see this. 你可以去研究珊瑚, 搞明白这样的事情发生的有多频繁。
corals:n.[无脊椎]珊瑚(coral的复数);
So one of the things thought of in the '80s was to go back and take cores of coral heads throughout the Galapagos and find out how often was there a devastating event. 上世纪80年代有一次（厄尔尼诺） 我们返回加拉帕戈斯群岛 并从那里的珊瑚礁顶采集珊瑚的核心, 以便找出这样破坏性事件发生的有多频繁。
cores:n.[晶体]核心; v.挖去(水果的)果心(core的第三人称单数); throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及; devastating:adj.毁灭性的; v.毁灭; (devastate的现在分词)
And just so you know, 1982-'83, that El Nino killed 95 percent of all the corals here in Galapagos. 正如你所知道的,1982到83年 那次厄尔尼诺杀死了加拉帕戈斯群岛 百分之九十五的珊瑚。
Then there was similar mortality in '97-'98. 随后,97到98年（那次厄尔尼诺）的死亡率也跟这次很接近。
mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
And what we found after drilling back in time two to 400 years was that these were unique events. 在“回溯”钻探了400年 后我们发现, 这些都是很独特的事件。
unique:adj.独特的,稀罕的;[数]唯一的;n.独一无二的人或物;
We saw no other mass mortality events. 我们以前没有见过这么大规模的死亡事件。
mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集;
So these events in our recent past really are unique. 因此近年来这些事件真是非常特别。
So they're either just truly monster El Ninos, or they're just very strong El Ninos that occurred against a backdrop of global warming . 因此他们要么不仅仅真的是“怪兽”厄尔尼诺, 要么就是在全球变暖背景下发生的 非常强大的厄尔尼诺。
monster:n.怪物;恶魔;庞然大物;adj.巨大的; occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式) backdrop:n.背景;背景幕;交流声; global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖;
Either case, it's bad news for the corals of the Galapagos Islands. 无论是哪种情况,对于加拉帕戈斯群岛 的珊瑚来说都是个噩耗。
Here's how we sample the corals. 这就是我们如何在珊瑚礁取样的。
This is actually Easter Island. Look at this monster. 这实际上是东部群岛。看看这个怪物。
This coral is eight meters tall, right. 这块珊瑚有8米高。
And it been growing for about 600 years. 它已经生长了大约600年。
Now, Sylvia Earle turned me on to this exact same coral. 现在,西尔维娅厄尔给我展示的同样是这块珊瑚。
And she was diving here with John Lauret -- I think it was 1994 -- and collected a little nugget and sent it to me. 她与约翰劳瑞特在这里潜水——我想是1994年—— 并且采集了这个块状物并把它寄给了我。
diving:n.潜水;跳水;跳水运动;v.下潜;跳水;潜水;(dive的现在分词) nugget:n.天然金块,矿块;珍闻,珍品;
And we started working on it, and we figured out we could tell the temperature of the ancient ocean from analyzing a coral like this. 然后我们开始对它展开研究, 我们明白我们可以通过分析这样一块珊瑚 来得知古代海洋的温度。
analyzing:adj.分析的;v.分析(analyze的现在分词);
So we have a diamond drill. 我们有一个钻石钻头。
We're not killing the colony; we're taking a small core sample out of the top. 我们没有杀死这块珊瑚礁;我们只是从它顶部采集了一个内核样本。
The core comes up as these cylindrical tubes of limestone . 珊瑚的内核就像这些石灰石圆柱管。
cylindrical:adj.圆柱形的;圆柱体的; limestone:n.[岩]石灰岩;
And that material then we take back to the lab and analyze it. 我们把这块材料拿回实验室并对它进行分析。
analyze:v.对…进行分析,分解(等于analyse);
You can see some of the coral cores there on the right. 你们可以在右边看到一些珊瑚内核。
So we've done that all over the Eastern Pacific. 所以我们踏遍了东太平洋进行这种研究。
Eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒;
We're starting to do it in the Western Pacific as well. 同样我们也正在西太平洋开展研究。
I'll take you back here to the Galapagos Islands. 下面我们回到这里,加拉帕戈斯群岛。
And we've been working at this fascinating uplift here in Urbina Bay. 我们一直在这个乌尔维纳湾迷人的“高地”工作。
fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词) uplift:vt.提高;抬起;vi.提高;上升;升起;n.举起,抬起;道德的向上;精神的高涨;
That the place where, during an earthquake in 1954, this marine terrace was lifted up out of the ocean very quickly, and it was lifted up about six to seven meters. 这个地方 1954年发生过地震, 这块海洋中的平台从海中 抬升得很快, 目前它已经上升了约6到7米。
marine:adj.海的;海产的;海生的;海船的;n.(尤指美国或英国皇家)海军陆战队士兵; terrace:n.平台;梯田;阳台;v.使成梯田,使成阶地;使有平台屋顶;adj.(女服)叠层式的;
And so now you can walk through a coral reef without getting wet. 因此现在你可以不湿鞋就可以走遍整块珊瑚礁。
reef:礁,礁脉
If you go on the ground there, it looks like this, and this is the grandaddy coral. 如果你登上那块地面,就像这个, 这是一块祖父辈的珊瑚。
grandaddy:n.爷爷;外公;
It's 11 meters in diameter , and we know that it started growing in the year 1584. 它直径有11米, 我们知道它从1584年 就开始生长。
diameter:n.直径;对径;放大率;放大倍数;
Imagine that. 想象一下。
And that coral was growing happily in those shallow waters, until 1954, when the earthquake happened. 这块珊瑚在浅海中快乐地成长, 直到1954年,发生了地震。
Now the reason we know it's 1584 is that these corals have growth bands . 我们知道它从1584年开始生长的原因 就是这些珊瑚拥有的生长带。
bands:n.乐队;法官;
When you cut them, slice those cores in half and x-ray them, you see these light and dark bands. 当你切开这些珊瑚内核,把半面切片放在X光下, 你会看到这些明和暗的带子。
slice:n.片; v.切成片; (很容易地)切开;
Each one of those is a year. 每一条都代表一年。
We know these corals grow about a centimeter and a half a year. 我们知道这些珊瑚一年大约生长1.5厘米。
And we just count on down to the bottom. 于是我们就从上数到下。
Then their other attribute is that they have this great chemistry. 它们其他的属性还包括 它们拥有这样神奇的化学构成。
attribute:n.属性;象征;v.把…归因于;认为…属于;认为某人(某物)具有某种特性;
We can analyze the carbonate that makes up the coral, and there's a whole bunch of things we can do. 我们可以分析构成 珊瑚礁的碳酸盐, 此外还有其他一堆事情可以做。
But in this case, we measured the different isotopes of oxygen. 但在这个案例中,我们测量了不同的氧同位素。
measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式) isotopes:n.[核]同位素(isotope的复数);核素;
Their ratio tells us the water temperature. 它们的比例能告诉我们水温。
In this example here, we had monitored this reef in Galapagos with temperature recorders, so we know the temperature of the water the coral's growing in. 在这个例子中, 我们用温度记录仪监测了加拉帕戈斯群岛 这块珊瑚礁。 所以我们就知道了珊瑚生长水域的温度。
Then after we harvest a coral, we measure this ratio, and now you can see, those curves match perfectly. 随后我们采集了一块珊瑚,并测量了这个比例, 下面你就能看到,那些曲线完美吻合。
curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数)
In this case, at these islands, you know, corals are instrumental-quality recorders of change in the water. 在这个案例中,在这些群岛, 你知道,这些珊瑚 是水中温度变化的记录仪,如同机器般精准。
And of course, our thermometers only take us back 50 years or so here. 当然,我们的温度计 只能让我们回溯50年左右。
thermometers:n.[仪]温度计(thermometer的复数);
The coral can take us back hundreds and thousands of years. 这些珊瑚却可以把我们带回 成百上千年以前。
hundreds and thousands:n.着色珠子糖(装饰糕点等用);
So, what we do: we've merged a lot of different data sets. 所以,这就是我们所做的: 我们汇集了很多不同的数据集。
merged:adj.(美俚)结了婚的;v.(使)合并,并入;相融;(merge的过去分词和过去式)
It's not just my group; there's maybe 30 groups worldwide doing this. 不仅仅我们这个团队;还有全世界可能30个从事这项工作的团队。
worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地;
But we get these instrumental- and near-instrumental-quality records of temperature change that go back hundreds of years, and we put them together. 我们取得这些仪器般精准或接近仪器般精准的、 回溯了上百年的温度变化记录, 并把它们汇总起来。
Here's a synthetic diagram. 这是一张合成图。
synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的;n.合成物;
There's a whole family of curves here. 这里有全套的数据曲线。
But what's happening: we're looking at the last thousand years of temperature on the planet. 发生了什么？我们看到的是这个星球近百年以来 的温度变化。
And there's five or six different compilations there, 这儿有5到6种不同的破译方式。
compilations:n.游戏汇编;纸牌汇编(compilation的复数);
But each one of those compilations reflects input from hundreds of these kinds of records from corals. 每一种方式都反映了从珊瑚上得来的 数百条记录的输入。
reflects:v.反映;映出(影像);反射;表明,表达;(reflect的第三人称单数) input:n.投入; v.把(数据等)输入计算机;
We do similar things with ice cores. 我们对冰核也采取这样的做法。
We work with tree rings. 我们对树木年轮也采取这样的做法。
And that's how we discover what is truly natural and how different is the last century, right? 我们就是这样发现 什么才是真正的自然环境 以及上个世纪又是多么与众不同,对么？
And I chose this one because it's complicated and messy looking, right. 我选择了这个 因为它很复杂而且很难理清楚。
messy:adj.肮脏的;凌乱的;不整洁的;
This is as messy as it gets. 就像它本身一样毫无头绪。
You can see there's some signals there. 你可以看到那里有一些信号。
Some of the records show lower temperatures than others. 某些记录显示 它们的温度要比其他的低。
Some of them show greater variability. 某些显示了更显著的变化。
But they all tell us what the natural variability is. 不过它们都告诉了我们 自然环境的变化是什么样的。
Some of them are from the northern hemisphere; some are from the entire globe. 某些是从北半球的大气层中来的; 某些是从世界各地来的。
But here's what we can say: what's natural in the last thousand years is that the planet was cooling down. 我能说的是: 近千年以来这个星球正在不断变冷,这才是自然的环境。
It was cooling down until about 1900 or so. 它从1900年左右就 开始冷却了。
And there is natural variability caused by the Sun, caused by El Ninos. 自然环境的变化是由 太阳、厄尔尼诺造成的。
A century-scale, decadal-scale variability, and we know the magnitude; it's about two-tenths to four-tenths of a degree Centigrade. 一个世纪范围内,几十年范围内的变化, 我们知道这个幅度; 它约为五分之一到五分之二摄氏度。
But then at the very end is where we have the instrumental record in black. 随后,我们就到了记录的最后, 那条记录是黑色的。
instrumental:n.工具格;器乐曲;工具词;adj.起重要作用;用乐器演奏的;为乐器谱写的;
And there's the temperature up there in 2009. 这是2009年的温度。
You know, we've warmed the globe about a degree Centigrade in the last century, and there's nothing in the natural part of that record that resembles what we've seen in the last century. 你要知道,上个世纪以来,我们已经 让全球上升了约一摄氏度。 在我们的自然环境的记录中 从没有过这样一个时代 能够与上个世纪相提并论。
resembles:v.看起来像:显得像:像(resemble的第三人称单数)
You know, that's the strength of our argument, that we are doing something that's truly different. 你要知道,这就是我们的论据的力量, 也就是说,我们确实改变了一些事情。
So I'll close with a short discussion of ocean acidification. 所以我就以一个海洋酸化 的简短讨论来结束（今天的演讲）。
I like it as a component of global change to talk about, because, even if you are a hard-bitten global warming skeptic , and I talk to that community fairly often, you cannot deny the simple physics of CO2 dissolving in the ocean. 我希望将它作为全球变化的一个组成部分来讨论, 因为,即使你是一个固执的全球变暖怀疑论者, （我也经常跟那种团体进行沟通） 你也不能否认 二氧化碳正在被海洋 吸收这个简单的事实。
component:n.成分;部件;组成部分;adj.构成的; hard-bitten:adj.顽强的;不屈服的; skeptic:n.怀疑论者;怀疑者;无神论者;sceptic(英); community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直; deny:v.否定,否认;拒绝给予;拒绝…的要求; dissolving:adj.消溶的;毁灭性的;v.使溶解(dissolve的现在分词);
You know, we're pumping out lots of CO2 into the atmosphere, from fossil fuels, from cement production. 你要知道,我们通过化石燃料,通过水泥的生产 向大气层排放了很多二氧化碳。
pumping:v.用泵输送;涌出;奔流;快速摇动;(pump的现在分词) fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的; cement:n.水泥;(干燥后硬化的)水泥;胶合剂;胶接剂;v.加强;胶合;
Right now, about a third of that carbon dioxide is dissolving straight into the sea, right? 眼下,大约三分之一的二氧化碳 直接被海洋所吸收,对么？
And as it does so, it makes the ocean more acidic . 结果, 这就让海洋的酸度更强。
acidic:adj.酸的,酸性的;产生酸的;
So, you cannot argue with that. 所以你不必就此展开争论。
That is what's happening right now, and it's a very different issue than the global warming issue. 那就是现在正在发生的事情, 它与全球变暖是非常 不同的两件事情。
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
It has many consequences . 它会导致很多后果。
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
There's consequences for carbonate organisms. 对于碳酸盐的有机体来讲有很多不良后果。
There are many organisms that build their shells out of calcium carbonate -- plants and animals both. 许多生物——包括植物和动物 用碳酸钙来构筑 它们的外壳。
calcium carbonate:n.[化]碳酸钙;
The main framework material of coral reefs is calcium carbonate. 珊瑚礁的主要构筑材料 也是碳酸钙。
reefs:n.礁石(reef的复数形式); v.收帆;
That material is more soluble in acidic fluid . 这种材料在酸性液体中 更容易溶解。
soluble:adj.[化学]可溶的,可溶解的;可解决的; fluid:adj.流动的;流畅的;不固定的;n.流体;液体;
So one of the things we're seeing is organisms are having to spend more metabolic energy to build and maintain their shells. 所以我们将看到的是 生物将花费 更多的代谢能量 来构筑并维持他们的外壳。
metabolic:adj.变化的;新陈代谢的; maintain:v.维持;保持;维修;保养;坚持(意见);
At some point, as this transience , as this CO2 uptake in the ocean continues, that material's actually going to start to dissolve . 在某种程度上,此刻, 若海洋持续吸收二氧化碳, 那么这些物质实际上将开始溶解。
transience:n.短暂;无常;顷刻(等于transiency); uptake:n.摄取;领会;举起; dissolve:v.溶;使(固体)溶解;解除;终止;解散;消除;n.(电影、电视等画面的)渐隐
And on coral reefs, where some of the main framework organisms disappear , we will see a major loss of marine biodiversity . 在珊瑚礁上面, 若那些形成主要构架的生物消失了, 我们就会痛失 海洋的生态多样性。
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在; biodiversity:n.生物多样性;
But it's not just the carbonate producers that are affected. 不过不仅仅是碳酸盐制造者会受到影响。
There's many physiological processes that are influenced by the acidity of the ocean. 还有许多生理进程 会受到海洋酸度的影响。
physiological:adj.生理学的,生理的; processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); influenced:v.影响;对…起作用;支配;左右;(influence的过去分词和过去式) acidity:n.酸度;酸性;酸过多;胃酸过多;
So many reactions involving enzymes and proteins are sensitive to the acid content of the ocean. 许多酶和蛋白质参与的反应 对海洋的酸度非常敏感。
reactions:n.反应;回应;抗拒;生理反应;副作用(reaction的复数) involving:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;(involve的现在分词) enzymes:n.[生化]酶(enzyme的复数);酶类,酵素; proteins:n.[生化]蛋白质(protein复数); sensitive:adj.敏感的;感觉的;易受影响的;n.敏感的人;有灵异能力的人; content:n.内容,目录;满足;容量;adj.满意的;vt.使满足;
So, all of these things -- greater metabolic demands, reduced reproductive success, changes in respiration and metabolism . 因此,所有这些—— 更旺盛的代谢需求, 降低的繁殖成功率, 呼吸作用和代谢过程的变化。
reproductive:adj.生殖的;再生的;复制的; respiration:n.呼吸;呼吸作用; metabolism:n.[生理]新陈代谢;
You know, these are things that we have good physiological reasons to expect to see stressed caused by this transience. 你要知道,在受到目前片刻的影响后, 我们能找到足够充分的生理原因 来预测到这些变化。
So we figured out some pretty interesting ways to track CO2 levels in the atmosphere, going back millions of years. 因此我们发现了一些非常有趣的方法 来跟踪数百万年前大气层中 的二氧化碳水平。
track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;
We used to do it just with ice cores, but in this case, we're going back 20 million years. 我们过去仅仅使用冰核, 但是在这个案例中,我们要回溯2000万年。
And we take samples of the sediment, and it tells us the CO2 level of the ocean, and therefore the CO2 level of the atmosphere. 于是我们就采集了海底沉积物的样本, 它告诉我们海洋中二氧化碳的浓度 从而我们也知道了大气中二氧化碳的浓度。
And here's the thing: you have to go back about 15 million years to find a time when CO2 levels were about what they are today. 接下来的事情就是 我们必须回溯大概1500万年 去寻找一个二氧化碳浓度跟 今天相近的年代。
You have to go back about 30 million years to find a time when CO2 levels were double what they are today. 我们必须回溯大约3000万年 去寻找一个二氧化碳浓度相当于 今天的两倍的年代。
Now, what that means is that all of the organisms that live in the sea have evolved in this chemostatted ocean, with CO2 levels lower than they are today. 现在,这意味着 所有生活在海洋中的生物都 在这个恒定的海洋中进化, 而其中的二氧化碳浓度低于现在的浓度。
evolved:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成;(evolve的过去分词和过去式)
That's the reason that they're not able to respond or adapt to this rapid acidification that's going on right now. 这也是他们为什么没有能力去应对或适应 海洋的快速酸化。 目前这正在发生。
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
So, Charlie Veron came up with this statement last year: "The prospect of ocean acidification may well be the most serious of all of the predicted outcomes of anthropogenic CO2 release ." 所以,查理弗隆 去年带着这个课题来到这里。 “海洋酸化的前景 可能是目前人类活动造成的 二氧化碳排放所导致的所有可预见的 后果中最严重的一种。”
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; prospect:n.展望;前景;希望;前途;v.勘探;探矿; predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式) outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数) anthropogenic:adj.人为的;[人类]人类起源的; release:v.释放;发射;让与;允许发表;n.释放;发布;让与;
And I think that may very well be true, so I'll close with this. 我认为他说的很靠谱, 所以我会一直密切关注它。
You know, we do need the protected areas, absolutely, but for the sake of the oceans, we have to cap or limit CO2 emissions as soon as possible. 你要知道,我们绝对需要一些受保护的领域, 但是看在海洋的份上, 我们必须马上限制 二氧化碳的排放。
for the sake of:为了;为了…的利益; emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数) as soon as:一…就;
Thank you very much. 非常感谢！
(Applause) （掌声）