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RichardSears_2010U-_面对石油的终结时代而有所准备_
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| For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy, and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk. |
下面的几分钟,我们将来谈论能源。 并且,这将是一次有点与众不同的演讲。 |
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varied:adj.多变的;各式各样的;杂色的;v.改变;使多样化;(vary的过去式和过去分词)
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| I'll try to spin a story about energy, and oil's a convenient starting place. |
我将讲述一个关于能源的故事, 就先从石油开始好了。 |
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spin:v.旋转;纺纱;吐丝;纺线;n.头晕;(快速)旋转;常用于英式英语;晕头转向; convenient:adj.实用的;便利的;方便的;
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| The talk will be broadly about energy, but oil's a good place to start. |
我的演说涵盖了能源的多个方面, 但从石油开始讲比较好。 |
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broadly:adv.明显地;宽广地;概括地;露骨地;粗鄙地;
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| And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff . |
其中一个原因是,它的作用很了不起。 |
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remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
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| You take about eight or so carbon atoms , about 20 hydrogen atoms , you put them together in exactly the right way and you get this marvelous liquid: very energy-dense and very easy to refine into a number of very useful products and fuels. |
用八个左右的碳原子 加上二十个氢原子 以正确的方式组合, 你就可以得到这瓶神奇的液体, 它有巨大的能量,也很容易就可以提炼 出非常实用的产品和燃料。 |
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atoms:n.[物]原子(atom的复数); hydrogen:n.氢;氢气; marvelous:adj.了不起的;非凡的;令人惊异的;不平常的; refine:v.精炼;改进;改善;提纯;
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| It's great stuff. |
这的确是好东西。 |
| Now, as far as it goes, there's a lot of oil out there in the world. |
现在,就我们所知,在世界上 还有很多石油资源。 |
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as far as:至于…;
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| Here's my little pocket map of where it's all located . |
这是我的小袖珍地图, 上面标示了所有石油分布的地方。 |
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located:adj.位于; v.确定…的准确地点; (locate的过去分词和过去式)
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| A bigger one for you to look at. |
你们也可以看比较大的这一张。 |
| But this is it, this is the oil in the world. |
就是这样,这些就是世界上石油的分布。 |
| Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is. |
地质学者们对此石油储存有很明确想法。 |
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Geologists:n.[地质]地质学家(geologist的复数形式);
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| This is about 100 trillion gallons of crude oil still to be developed and produced in the world today. |
现在全世界大约还有100万亿加仑的 原生油 还可以继续被开发和提炼。 |
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trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; gallons:n.加仑;大量(gallon的复数);一加仑的容器; crude:adj.粗略的;简略的;大概的;粗糙的;n.原油;石油;
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| Now, that's just one story about oil, and we could end it there and say, "Well, oil's going to last forever because, well, there's just a lot of it." |
现在,关于石油的一个说法, 我们也许不可能会用尽它并说, “好吧,石油没准会永远存在, 因为,还有很多石油储存。” |
| But there's actually more to the story than that. |
但更多关于此的说法却相反。 |
| Oh, by the way , if you think you're very far from some of this oil, 1000 meters below where you're all sitting is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world. |
顺便说一下,如果你认为你远离一些石油储存的勘测地点, 就在离我们这现场有1000米的地方 就是全世界最大石油生产地之一。 |
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by the way:顺便说一下;
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| Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want. |
如果你有兴趣可以找我谈谈。我可以为你提供一些资料。 |
| So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it. |
这也只是石油的一部分事实,还有很多很多。 |
| But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system? |
但究竟石油是什么？在能源体系石油起什么作用？ |
| Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil, and it's been a dominant part of our energy system for most of those 150 years. |
这是一张150年来石油在能源体系的比重图, 也就是说,石油在这150年时间里,大多数是我们能源体系 的主宰者。 |
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snapshot:n.快照,快相;急射,速射;简单印象;vt.给…拍快照;vi.拍快照; dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
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| Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about: |
现在,我要告诉各位一个小秘密。 |
| For the last 25 years, oil has been playing less and less of a role in global energy systems. |
在过去25年, 石油在全球能源体系中所占的比重 正在持续下降。 |
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global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
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| There was one kind of peak oil in 1985, when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply. |
在1985年石油的比重达到高峰, 那时石油在全球能源供应体系中高达50%。 |
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peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; represented:v.代表; (represent的过去式和过去分词)
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| Now, it's about 35 percent. |
现在,石油占35%。 |
| It's been declining and I believe it will continue to decline . |
这比重还在下降, 我相信石油所占比重还会继续下降。 |
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declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词) decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
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| Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007 and is declining. |
在2007年,美国的汽油消费可能到达峰值 并且开始呈下降趋势。 |
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Gasoline:n.汽油; consumption:n.消费;消耗;肺痨; peaked:adj.尖的; v.到达高点,消瘦,竖起(peak的过去式和过去分词形式);
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| So oil is playing a less significant role every year. |
因此石油重要性 正在逐年下降, |
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significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
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| And so, 25 years ago, there was a peak oil; just like, in the 1920s, there was a peak coal; and a hundred years before that, there was a peak wood. |
大概25年前, 石油峰值第一次出现, 就好比1920年代 的煤炭峰值, 在100年前 的木材峰值。 |
| This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems. |
请看这张非常重要的能源体系发展的图片。 |
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evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
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| And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades? |
在过去数十年,究竟是什么取代了石油的地位呢？ |
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slack:adj.松弛的;疏忽的;不流畅的;v.松懈;减弱;n.煤末;峡谷;adv.马虎地;缓慢地;
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| Well, a lot of natural gas and a little bit of nuclear , for starters . |
开始时是用大量天然气 和极少的核能。 |
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natural gas:n.天然气; nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的; starters:n.(主菜之前的)开胃小吃;参赛者;发令员;(starter的复数)
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| And what goes on in the future? |
在未来会发生什么呢？ |
| Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades is peak gas, and beyond that, peak renewables . |
好吧,我超前想未来数十年 出现天然气峰值, 甚至是, 可再生能源的峰值。 |
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think out:解决;仔细考虑;发现; renewables:n.可再生能源(renewable的复数);
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| Now, I'll tell you another little, very important story about this picture. |
现在,我将告诉你们关于此图片另一个非常重要的 事。 |
| Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total isn't increasing, it is -- that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it, we'll fill in some of the details -- but there's a very important message here: |
我不是说全球能源使用量没有增加, 事实上是在增加的。 那又是另外一回事,来和我一起谈论这话题。 我们会谈到一些具体细节。 但是这有一个非常关键讯息。 |
| This is 200 years of history, and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing our energy system. |
在过去200年历史中, 200多年来,我们一直在系统地使 我们能源体系脱碳。 |
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systematically:adv.有系统地;有组织地; decarbonizing:v.使脱碳;(decarbonize的现在分词)
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| Energy systems of the world becoming progressively -- year on year, decade on decade, century on century -- becoming less carbon intense . |
日复一日, 年复一年, 数十年来,甚至数个世纪以来, 全球能源体系正逐渐地大力地在转化成低碳能源体系。 |
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progressively:adv.渐进地;日益增多地; intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的;
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| And that continues into the future with the renewables that we're developing today, reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy by mid century. |
当今我们发展了可再生能源, 在未来随着它继续发展, 在本世纪中叶可能占到30%的能源供应 。 |
| Now that might be the end of the story -- |
你以为演说到这里就可以结束了吗？ |
| Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables -- but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that. |
我们仅用可重复使用的可再生能源来完全代替石油-- 但是我又想,现实中,比这种解决方法肯定要多得多。 |
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conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的;
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| And to tell the next part of the story -- and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond. |
接下来的部分-- 让我们展望,2100年甚至更远。 |
| What is the future of truly sustainable , carbon-free energy? |
什么才是未来 真正可持续的,无碳的能源？ |
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sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的; carbon-free:adj.不含碳的;
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| Well, we have to take a little excursion , and we'll start in central Texas. |
好吧,让我们启程小游一下。 我们来到得克萨斯州中部。 |
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excursion:n.偏移;远足;短程旅行;离题;游览,游览团;
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| Here's a piece of limestone . |
这是一块石灰岩。 |
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limestone:n.[岩]石灰岩;
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| I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas. |
我在德克萨斯州马布尔福尔斯捡到它。 |
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Marble:n.大理石;大理石制品;弹珠;adj.大理石的;冷酷无情的;
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| It's about 400 million years old. |
它大概有4亿年历史。 |
| And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it. |
它只是石灰岩,没什么特别的。 |
| Now, here's a piece of chalk. |
现在看到的是一块粉笔。 |
| I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger. |
我从M.I.T(麻省理工学院)拿来的。它的历史比较短。 |
| And it's different than this limestone, you can see that. |
粉笔比起这石灰岩就有所不同。你可以看得出来。 |
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different than:不同于;
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| You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff, and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this. |
我们不会用粉笔来搞建筑, 我们也不会在一堂讲课中用石灰岩在黑板上写字。 |
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lecture:n.演讲;讲座;讲课;谴责;v.开讲座;讲授;讲课;指责;告诫 chalkboard:n.黑板;
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| Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different. |
是嘛,它们的确不同。不是的,它们没什么截然不同。 |
| It's not different, it's the same stuff: calcium carbonate , calcium carbonate. |
就是没有不同,它们是同样的材料, 碳酸钙,同样的碳酸钙。 |
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calcium carbonate:n.[化]碳酸钙;
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| What's different is how the molecules are put together . |
有所区别的是分子排序的问题。 |
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molecules:n.[化学]分子,微粒;[化学]摩尔(molecule的复数); put together:..放在一起;组合;装配;
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| Now, if you think that's kind of neat , the story gets really neat right now. |
如果你认为这很神奇, 真正神奇的还在后头。 |
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neat:adj.整洁的;整齐的;有序的;有条理的;
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| Off the coast of California comes this: |
我们来谈谈在California(加利福尼亚)海岸边的 |
| It's an abalone shell . |
鲍鱼壳。 |
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abalone:n.[无脊椎]鲍鱼; shell:n.壳;炮弹;壳层;骨架;v.脱壳;剥壳;采集贝壳;用壳体包被;short.shewill;
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| Now, millions of abalone every year make this shell. |
现在每年数以万计鲍鱼 自产这种壳。 |
| Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing, it's calcium carbonate. |
顺便说一下,没准你也会猜到, 这也是碳酸钙。 |
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just in case:以防万一;作为准备;
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| It's the same stuff as this and the same stuff as this. |
鲍鱼壳和这石灰岩 和这粉笔都是同样的材料。 |
| But it's not the same stuff; it's different. |
但它们又是完全不同的东西。 |
| It's thousands of times, maybe 3,000 times tougher than this. |
这鲍鱼壳比这粉笔要 坚硬数千倍,甚至3000倍。 |
| And why? Because the lowly abalone is able to lay down the calcium carbonate crystals in layers , making this beautiful, iridescent mother of pearl . |
为什么呢？因为这些不起眼的鲍鱼 能够产出 碳酸钙晶体层 而变成这种美丽的,闪光 的珠母层。 |
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lowly:adj.卑贱的;地位低的;谦逊的;adv.谦逊地;位置低下地;低声地; crystals:n.[晶体]晶体(crystal的复数形式);石英晶体; layers:n.层;表层;层次;阶层;v.把…分层堆放;(layer的第三人称单数和复数) iridescent:adj.彩虹色的;闪光的; pearl:n.珍珠; v.使成小圆粒; adj.珍珠(制)的;
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| Very specialized material that the abalone self-assembles, millions of abalone, all the time, every day, every year. |
每年中的每一天, 数以万计鲍鱼自产 这种 非常特殊的材料。 |
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specialized:adj.专业的; v.专门研究(或从事); (specialize的过去式和过去分词)
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| This is pretty incredible stuff. |
这是非常不可思议的材料。 |
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incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
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| All the same , what's different? |
尽管如此,有什么不同呢？ |
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All the same:仍然:依然:照样:
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| How the molecules are put together. |
分子如何排序在一起。 |
| Now, what does this have to do with energy? |
那么,这又与能源有什么关系？ |
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have to do with:与…有关;
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| Here's a piece of coal. |
这是一块煤。 |
| And I'll suggest that this coal is about as exciting as this chalk. |
这块煤就好比这块粉笔 一样 有意思。 |
| Now, whether we're talking about fuels or energy carriers, or perhaps novel materials for batteries or fuel cells, nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet because nature didn't need to. |
现在尽管我们经常谈论燃料, 能源载体, 或者是电池或者燃料电池的新材料时 , 大自然还没提供给我们这么完美的材料, 因为大自然没有这个必要。 |
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novel:adj.新奇的;异常的;n.小说; batteries:n.电池;炮组;炮列;[法]殴打;(batteries是battery的复数)
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| Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell, the survival of a species didn't depend on building those materials, until maybe now when it might just matter. |
之所以这样是因为大自然不会像鲍鱼壳, 除非到现在,只有当这种材料变得很重要, 或许只有生成这种材料, 各物种才会生存下来,大自然才会生成它。 |
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survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物; species:n.[生物]物种;种类;
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| So, when we think about the future of energy, imagine what would it be like if instead of this, we could build the energy equivalent of this just by rearranging the molecules differently. |
所以让我们思考一下能源的未来, 想象一下 , 除了煤炭之外, 我们可以制造出替代能源, 只要把分子重新排序,那将会是什么样子？ |
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equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物; rearranging:v.重新安排;改变(位日期、地点);(rearrange的现在分词)
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| And so that is my story. |
这就是我要谈的。 |
| The oil will never run out. |
石油永远不会用尽, |
| It's not because we have a lot of it. |
不是因为我们还有很多石油, |
| It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills . |
也不是因为我们打算建数不计的风车, |
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windmills:n.[动力]风车(windmill的复数); v.作风车般的传动;
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| It's because, well, thousands of years ago, people invented ideas -- they had ideas, innovations , technology -- and the Stone Age ended, not because we ran out of stones. |
而是因为 数千年前, 人们搞发明, 有想法,创新性,科技。 石器时代的结束 不是取决于人类用完了石头。 |
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innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; Stone Age:n.石器时代;
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| (Laughter) |
（笑声） |
| It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil. |
而是想法,创新性和科技 使得我们不会用尽石油而终结石油时代。 |
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run out of:用完;
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| Thank you very much. |
非常感谢大家。 |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |