返回首页

RayKurzweil_2014-_准备好进入混合思维的时代_
Let me tell you a story.
It goes back 200 million years. 要追溯到两亿年前。
It's a story of the neocortex , which means new rind . 是个关于新大脑皮层的故事, 讲的就是大脑的表层。
neocortex:n.新(大脑)皮质; rind:n.壳;外皮;vt.剥壳;削皮;
So in these early mammals , because only mammals have a neocortex, rodent-like creatures . 对于早期的哺乳类动物, 由于只有他们有新大脑皮层, 就像啮齿类的生物。
mammals:n.哺乳动物;(mammal的复数) creatures:n.生物;动物;(具有某种特征的)人(creature的复数)
It was the size of a postage stamp and just as thin, and was a thin covering around their walnut-sized brain, but it was capable of a new type of thinking. 皮质尺寸像邮票一样而且很薄, 这个薄的皮质包裹着他们 像核桃大小的头脑。 但它可以产生新的思维方式。
postage stamp:na.邮票; capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的;
Rather than the fixed behaviors that non-mammalian animals have, it could invent new behaviors. 不像那些非哺乳类动物, 只有固定的行为, 它可以创造新的行为。
So a mouse is escaping a predator , its path is blocked, it'll try to invent a new solution . 例如一只老鼠在逃避捕食者, 它的路被堵住了, 就想想出一个新的解决方案。
predator:n.[动]捕食者;[动]食肉动物;掠夺者; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
That may work, it may not, but if it does, it will remember that and have a new behavior, and that can actually spread virally through the rest of the community . 那方案可能成功也可能失败, 但如果成功了,它就会记住, 于是就有了一种新的行为, 同时那个方案会迅速传遍 到其余的团体。
virally:adj.[医学](滤过性)病毒的;(滤过性)病毒引起的; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
Another mouse watching this could say, 比如另一只老鼠看到这会说,
Hey, that was pretty clever, going around that rock, and it could adopt a new behavior as well. “噢,绕过那块岩石,真是高明,” 于是它也会采取那种行为。
adopt:v.采取;接受;收养;正式通过;
Non-mammalian animals couldn't do any of those things. 非哺乳类动物 不能做这些事情。
They had fixed behaviors. 因为他们有固定的行为方式。
Now they could learn a new behavior but not in the course of one lifetime. 现在他们能学习新的行为 但不是在一个生命的过程中。
in the course of:在…过程中;在…期间;
In the course of maybe a thousand lifetimes, it could evolve a new fixed behavior. 也许在几千个生命周期内, 它可以衍生出一个新的固定的行为。
evolve:v.(使)逐渐形成;进化;进化形成;
That was perfectly okay 200 million years ago. 那对两亿年前来讲是好极了。
The environment changed very slowly. 那时的环境变化很慢。
It could take 10,000 years for there to be a significant environmental change, and during that period of time it would evolve a new behavior. 那时可能要过一万年才会 发生一次巨大的环境变化, 在那期间, 可能进化一种新的行为。
significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
Now that went along fine, but then something happened. 那样发展似乎还不错, 但有些事情发生了。
Sixty-five million years ago, there was a sudden, violent change to the environment. 六千五百万年前, 发生了一个突然的,剧烈的环境变化。
violent:adj.暴力的;猛烈的;
We call it the Cretaceous extinction event. 我们称之为白垩纪灭绝事件。
Cretaceous:adj.白垩纪的;似白垩的;n.白垩纪;白垩系; extinction:n.绝种;
That's when the dinosaurs went extinct, that's when 75 percent of the animal and plant species went extinct, and that's when mammals overtook their ecological niche , 那是恐龙走向灭绝的时候, 是百分之七十五的动植物 走向灭绝的时候, 也是哺乳类动物 取代生态位,
species:n.[生物]物种;种类; overtook:v.(英)赶上;使无法忍受;代替(overtake的过去式); ecological:adj.生态的,生态学的; niche:n.壁龛; vt.放入壁龛;
and to anthropomorphize , biological evolution said, 而达到人格化,生物进化学说道,
anthropomorphize:vt.赋与人性,人格化; biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品; evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进;
Hmm, this neocortex is pretty good stuff , and it began to grow it. “嗯,这个新大脑皮层是个好东西,” 于是开始发展。
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
And mammals got bigger, their brains got bigger at an even faster pace, and the neocortex got bigger even faster than that and developed these distinctive ridges and folds basically to increase its surface area. 哺乳类动物逐渐变大, 他们的大脑变大的速度更快, 新大脑皮层同时变大的速度也更快, 发展出明显的隆起和褶皱 来增加它的表面积。
distinctive:adj.独特的;特别的;有特色的; ridges:n.带钢单向皱纹; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
If you took the human neocortex and stretched it out, it's about the size of a table napkin , and it's still a thin structure . 如果你有一个人的新大脑皮层 然后把它伸展开, 大概有一方餐巾那么大, 它也是一个很薄的构造。
stretched:v.拉长;撑大;有弹性(或弹力);拉紧;(stretch的过去式和过去分词) table napkin:n.餐巾; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造;
It's about the thickness of a table napkin. 就像餐巾那么薄。
thickness:n.厚度;层;浓度;含混不清;
But it has so many convolutions and ridges it's now 80 percent of our brain, and that's where we do our thinking, and it's the great sublimator . 但它有很多的隆起和褶皱。 现在它占据我们的大脑有百分之八十 那也是我们用来思考的地方, 所以那是个很棒的升华。
convolutions:肠曲; sublimator:n.[化工]升华器;
We still have that old brain that provides our basic drives and motivations , but I may have a drive for conquest , and that'll be sublimated by the neocortex into writing a poem or inventing an app or giving a TED Talk, and it's really the neocortex that's where the action is. 我们仍旧还是有那个 提供基本动力和动机的大脑, 但也许我会有一个要去征服的想法, 那就要新大脑皮层 借由写首诗或发明一个程序 或来一个TED演讲而达到升华, 它的确是在新的大脑皮层
motivations:n.动机(motivation的复数);表明动机; conquest:n.征服;占领;占领(或征服)的地区;(爱情或性方面)被俘虏的人; sublimated:升华(sublimate的过去式和过去分词);
Fifty years ago, I wrote a paper describing how I thought the brain worked, and I described it as a series of modules . 描述我对大脑如何运作的想法, 我描述说大脑就像一系列模块。
describing:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的现在分词) described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式) series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; modules:n.[计]模块(module的复数);加载模块列表;
Each module could do things with a pattern. 每个模块可以用一种方式做事情。
It could learn a pattern. It could remember a pattern.
It could implement a pattern. 也可以执行一种方式。
implement:v.实施;执行;贯彻;使生效;n.工具;
And these modules were organized in hierarchies , and we created that hierarchy with our own thinking. 然后这些模块被分派到统治集团中, 我们用我们自己的想法创造了统治集团。
organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) hierarchies:n.阶层,层级;[数]分层,分类; hierarchy:n.层级;等级制度;
And there was actually very little to go on 50 years ago. 后来我的这个想法就没怎么继续了。
It led me to meet President Johnson. 它让我去见了约翰逊总统。
I've been thinking about this for 50 years, and a year and a half ago I came out with the book 我已经思考了五十年, 一年半前我出了本书,
How To Create A Mind, which has the same thesis , but now there's a plethora of evidence . ”如何创造思想,“ 这本书和那篇论文有着相同的主题, 但现在有了更多的证据支撑。
thesis:n.论文;论点; plethora:n.过多;过剩;[医]多血症; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
The amount of data we're getting about the brain from neuroscience is doubling every year. 我们从神经科学得到 关于大脑的数据每年都成倍增加。
neuroscience:n.神经系统科学(指神经病学,神经化学等);
Spatial resolution of brainscanning of all types is doubling every year. 各类脑扫描的空间分辨率也是。 每年双倍增加。
Spatial:adj.空间的;存在于空间的;受空间条件限制的; resolution:n.解决;分辨;解析;决议;
We can now see inside a living brain and see individual interneural connections connecting in real time , firing in real time. 看到个别神经元间的连接, 实时连接,实时放电
individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; real time:adj.实时的;接到指示立即执行的;
We can see your brain create your thoughts. 我们可以看到你大脑创造思维。
We can see your thoughts create your brain, which is really key to how it works. 我们可以看到你的思维也在创造你的大脑, 这对了解大脑如何运作很重要。
So let me describe briefly how it works. 让我简单描述一下大脑如何工作的。
briefly:adv.简要地;简短地;暂时地;
I've actually counted these modules. 我算过这些单位的数量。
We have about 300 million of them, and we create them in these hierarchies. 我们大约有三亿, 我们在大脑层里创造他们。
I'll give you a simple example. 给你们简单举例。
I've got a bunch of modules that can recognize the crossbar to a capital A, and that's all they care about. 我有一堆模块, 它们可以认知A的一横, 那是它们关心的全部。
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; crossbar:n.闩,横木;球门的横木;
A beautiful song can play, a pretty girl could walk by, they don't care, but they see a crossbar to a capital A, they get very excited and they say crossbar, and they put out a high probability on their output axon . 一首动人的歌在播放, 一个美丽的姑娘经过, 它们都不在意,但当它们看见A的一横, 它们就会很兴奋的说“横,” 然后他们 从输出轴突输出一个高度的可能性,
probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出; axon:n.轴索,[解剖]轴突(神经细胞);
That goes to the next level, and these layers are organized in conceptual levels. 那就到了下一个等级, 这些层次被分布在概念性等级中。
layers:n.层;表层;层次;阶层;v.把…分层堆放;(layer的第三人称单数和复数) conceptual:adj.概念上的;
Each is more abstract than the next one, so the next one might say capital A. 每一个都比下一个更抽象, 所以下一个可能说“字母A。”
abstract:n.摘要; adj.抽象的; vt.摘要; vi.做摘要;
That goes up to a higher level that might say Apple. 去到更高一个等级可能说“apple”
Information flows down also. 信息也这样流动。
If the apple recognizer has seen A-P-P-L, it'll think to itself, Hmm, I think an E is probably likely, and it'll send a signal down to all the E recognizers saying, Be on the lookout for an E, 如果那个认出apple的看到 a-p-p-l, 它就会想,“嗯,我觉得接下来是e,” 然后它就会把信号传送个所有认知e的 说,“看住e,
recognizers:n.[计]识别器,[计]识别程序; on the lookout for:寻觅;注视着,警惕着;
I think one might be coming. 我觉得它就要来了。”
The E recognizers will lower their threshold and they see some sloppy thing, could be an E. e的认知这就会降低警觉 它们可能粗心的看到一些东西觉得就是E。
threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值; sloppy:adj.草率的;粗心的;泥泞的;肥大的;稀薄的;
Ordinarily you wouldn't think so, but we're expecting an E, it's good enough, and yeah, I've seen an E, and then apple says, 通常你不会这样想, 但我们在期待一个E, 那就够了, 于是我看到了E,然后认知的apple说,
Ordinarily:adv.通常地;一般地;
Yeah, I've seen an Apple. “太好了,我看到了apple。”
Go up another five levels, and you're now at a pretty high level of this hierarchy, and stretch down into the different senses, and you may have a module that sees a certain fabric , 再往上五个等级, 现在你就在一个很高的水平, 的这种大脑层, 你可能有一个模块看到了一个特殊东西,
fabric:n.织物;布料;(社会,机构等的)结构;
hears a certain voice quality, smells a certain perfume , and will say, My wife has entered the room. 听到一个声音,闻到到某个特殊的香水, 它就会说,“我老婆进来房间了。”
perfume:n.香水;香味;v.洒香水于…;使…带香味;
Go up another 10 levels, and now you're at a very high level. 往上十个等级,现在你在 一个非常高的等级。
You're probably in the frontal cortex, and you'll have modules that say, That was ironic . 你可能在大脑额叶, 然后你有模块说,“那很讽刺。
frontal:adj.额的;正面的,前面的;n.额骨,额部;房屋的正面; ironic:adj.讽刺的;反话的;
That's funny. She's pretty. 那很有趣。她很美。”
You might think that those are more sophisticated , but actually what's more complicated is the hierarchy beneath them. 你可能觉得那些模块很复杂, 实际上更复杂的是 在他们之下的大脑层集团。
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式) beneath:prep.在…之下;adv.在下方;
There was a 16-year-old girl, she had brain surgery , and she was conscious because the surgeons wanted to talk to her. 有一个十六岁的女孩,她做了一个大脑手术, 她依然是清醒的,因为外科医生 要和她谈话。
surgery:n.外科;外科手术;手术室;诊疗室; conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的; surgeons:n.外科医生;(surgeon的复数)
You can do that because there's no pain receptors in the brain. 手术可以做是因为大脑里没有疼痛的感觉器官。 在大脑里,
receptors:n.[生化]受体;接受器;神经末梢(receptor的复数);
And whenever they stimulated particular, very small points on her neocortex, shown here in red, she would laugh. 当他们刺激到某个部分, 在她大脑皮层的很小的点, 这里显示红色的,她就会笑。
stimulated:adj.受激的;v.刺激(stimulate的过去式和过去分词);
So at first they thought they were triggering some kind of laugh reflex , but no, they quickly realized they had found the points in her neocortex that detect humor , and she just found everything hilarious whenever they stimulated these points. 所以一开始他们以为他们触碰到 某个笑神经, 那些在新大脑皮层的小点能探测到幽默, 然后她发现一切都很可笑, 每当刺激到那些点的时候。
triggering:n.[电子]触发;起动;v.引起(trigger的ing形式);扣…的扳机; reflex:n.反射;反映;映像;回复;习惯性思维;adj.反射的;反省的;反作用的;优角的; detect:vt.察觉;发现;探测; humor:n.幽默;心情;情绪;脾气;v.迎合;迁就; hilarious:adj.欢闹的;非常滑稽的;喜不自禁的;
You guys are so funny just standing around, was the typical comment, and they weren't funny, not while doing surgery. “你们站在这里真是太好笑了,” 这是她典型的言论,
typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的;
So how are we doing today?
Well, computers are actually beginning to master human language with techniques that are similar to the neocortex. 事实上电脑逐渐开始 通过科技掌握人类语言, 这和新大脑皮层类似。
techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数)
I actually described the algorithm, which is similar to something called a hierarchical hidden Markov model, something I've worked on since the '90s. 我实际上描述了运算法则, 这和 脑层隐藏的马尔可夫模型类似,
hierarchical:adj.分层的;等级体系的; Markov:n.马尔可夫(俄罗斯数学家);
Jeopardy is a very broad natural language game, and Watson got a higher score than the best two players combined. Jeopardy是一个很广泛的语言游戏, Watson得了一个 比两人加在一起还高的分数。
Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地; natural language:n.自然语言(自然发展而成,并非人造);
It got this query correct: 它纠正了这个问题:
query:n.疑问,质问;疑问号;[计]查询;vt.询问;对…表示疑问;vi.询问;表示怀疑;
A long, tiresome speech delivered by a frothy pie topping, and it quickly responded , What is a meringue harangue ? 一段很长很无聊的演讲 就像馅饼上的装饰。“ 于是有了很快的回复,”什么是长篇大论？“
tiresome:adj.烦人的,无聊的;令人讨厌的; frothy:adj.多泡的;起泡的;空洞的,浅薄的; responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词) meringue:n.调合蛋白(蛋白拌糖打硬后置于饼或蛋糕上); harangue:n.长篇大论; vt.向…滔滔不绝地演讲; vi.高谈阔论;
And Jennings and the other guy didn't get that. 没人理解这个问题。
It's a pretty sophisticated example of computers actually understanding human language, and it actually got its knowledge by reading 那是个很复杂的例子 关于电脑理解人类语言, 它实际得到了自己的知识通过
Wikipedia and several other encyclopedias . 维基百科和一些其他百科。
Wikipedia:维基百科; encyclopedias:n.百科全书(encyclopaedia的复数);
Five to 10 years from now, search engines will actually be based on not just looking for combinations of words and links but actually understanding, reading for understanding the billions of pages on the web and in books. 从现在起五到十年, 搜索引擎会不仅仅基于 对文字、链接组合的寻找, 而是真正的理解, 通过阅读来理解
combinations:n.[数]组合;制品(combination的复数);合谱;
So you'll be walking along, and Google will pop up and say, You know, Mary, you expressed concern to me a month ago that your glutathione supplement wasn't getting past the blood-brain barrier . 没有通过血脑屏障。
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; pop up:v.突然出现; expressed:v.表示;表达;显而易见;不言自明;(express的过去分词和过去式) concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; glutathione:n.[生化]麸胱甘肽; supplement:v.补充;增补;n.补遗;增补(物);补充(物);添加物; barrier:n.屏障;障碍;障碍物;关口;v.用栅围住;
Well, new research just came out 13 seconds ago that shows a whole new approach to that and a new way to take glutathione. 十三秒前刚出了个新研究, 显示有一个全新方法的来解决这个问题。
approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理;
Let me summarize it for you. 一个服用谷胱甘肽的新方法,
summarize:v.总结;概述;概括;归纳;
Twenty years from now, we'll have nanobots , because another exponential trend is the shrinking of technology . 让我来为你总结一下。“ 因为另一个指数趋势 显示科技的收缩。
nanobots:n.纳米机器人(nanobot的复数); exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数; trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向; shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词) technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
They'll go into our brain through the capillaries and basically connect our neocortex to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud providing an extension of our neocortex. 他们会通过 到枢纽里的合成大脑皮层。
capillaries:n.[解剖]毛细血管;微血管;(capillary的复数形式) synthetic:adj.综合的;合成的,人造的;n.合成物; extension:n.延长;延期;扩大;伸展;电话分机;
Now today, I mean, you have a computer in your phone, but if you need 10,000 computers for a few seconds to do a complex search, you can access that for a second or two in the cloud. 而提供一个大脑皮层的延伸 现在,我的意思是, 你手机里有一个电脑,
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
In the 2030s, if you need some extra neocortex, you'll be able to connect to that in the cloud directly from your brain. 在2030年,如果你需要一些额外的大脑皮层, 你可以在枢纽里 直接与你大脑连接。
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就;
So I'm walking along and I say, 所以当我走过我会说,
Oh, there's Chris Anderson. “哦,这是Chris Anderson。”
He's coming my way. 他在向我走来。
I'd better think of something clever to say. 我最好想一个聪明的方式来说。
I've got three seconds. 我有三秒钟来想。
My 300 million modules in my neocortex isn't going to cut it. 我大脑皮层里的三亿个模块
I need a billion more.
I'll be able to access that in the cloud. 于是我可以在枢纽里实现。
And our thinking, then, will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking, but the non-biological portion is subject to my law of accelerating returns. 那时我们的思考,会像一个 生物和非生物思考的混合, 但非生物的部分 取决于我加速回收的原则。
hybrid:n.杂种,混血儿;混合物;adj.混合的;杂种的; non-biological:非生物的; portion:n.部分;(食物的)一份;分担的责任;v.把…分成若干份(或部分); accelerating:adj.促进的,[物]加速的;催化的;
It will grow exponentially . 它会成指数增长。
exponentially:adv.以指数方式;
And remember what happens the last time we expanded our neocortex? 还记得 上次我们伸展我们大脑皮层发生了什么吗？
expanded:adj.扩充的;展开的;vt.扩大(expand的过去式);
That was two million years ago when we became humanoids and developed these large foreheads . 当我们成为变类人 进化这些大前额时。
humanoids:adj.像人的;n.类人动物(humanoid的复数) foreheads:n.额;前额;(forehead的复数)
Other primates have a slanted brow . 其他灵长目动物有倾斜的额。
primates:n.灵长类; slanted:adj.斜的;有倾向的;v.使倾斜(slant的过去式和过去分词); brow:n.额头;山脊;坡顶;
They don't have the frontal cortex. 他们没有前大脑皮层。
But the frontal cortex is not really qualitatively different. 但那不是真正的不同。
qualitatively:adv.定性地;从品质上讲;
It's a quantitative expansion of neocortex, but that additional quantity of thinking was the enabling factor for us to take a qualitative leap and invent language and art and science and technology and TED conferences . 不同在于大脑皮层的伸展, 艺术,科学和科技 还有TED会议。
quantitative:adj.定量的;量的,数量的; expansion:n.扩张;膨胀;扩展;扩大; additional:adj.附加的,额外的; quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额; enabling:adj.授权的;v.使能够;授权给(enable的现在分词); factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入; leap:n.跳越;跳跃;跳高;骤变;v.跳;跳跃;跳越;猛冲; conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式);
No other species has done that. 没有其他物种可以做到这样。
And so, over the next few decades, we're going to do it again. 在接下来的几十年, 我们要再一次。
We're going to again expand our neocortex, only this time we won't be limited by a fixed architecture of enclosure . 我们会再次伸展我们的新大脑皮层, 只有这样我们不会
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) architecture:n.建筑学;建筑风格;建筑式样;架构; enclosure:n.附件;围墙;围场;
It'll be expanded without limit. 它会无限伸展。
That additional quantity will again be the enabling factor for another qualitative leap in culture and technology. 会再次成为一个启动因子
Thank you very much. 非常感谢！
(Applause) （鼓掌）