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RayKurzweil_2009U-_奇点大学_
Information technology grows in an exponential manner. 信息技术正以指数幅度发展。
Information technology:n.信息技术; exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数;
It's not linear . And our intuition is linear . 它并不是线性的。而对我们来说,直觉却是线性的。
linear:adj.线的,线型的;直线的,线状的;长度的; intuition:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识;
When we walked through the savanna a thousand years ago we made linear predictions where that animal would be. 千年前,当我们的祖先经过热带草原时, 他们常常会线性预测(根据直觉找寻)野兽的踪迹。
savanna:n.[生态]热带草原;热带的稀树大草原; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式);
And that worked fine. It's hardwired in our brains. 这的确行得通。因为这些是我们与生俱来的本能。
hardwired:adj.电路的;
But the pace of exponential growth is really what describes information technologies . 然而信息技术当下的发展速度 只能用指数发展来形容。
describes:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;(describe的第三人称单数) technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数);
And it's not just computation . 这两者的差异不仅仅局限于数值。
computation:n.估计,计算;
There is a big difference between linear and exponential growth. 它们是天差地别的。
If I take 30 steps linearly , one, two, three, four, five, 假如我直走30步,一、二、三、四、五,
linearly:adv.成直线地;在线上地;
I get to 30. 我会一直走到30。
If I take 30 steps exponentially , two, four, eight, 16, 可是假如我以指数方式走三十步,二、四、八、16,
exponentially:adv.以指数方式;
I get to a billion. 我会到达十亿多。
It makes a huge difference. 这之间差了十万八千里啊。
And that really describes information technology. 偏偏指数增长正确描述了当今的信息技术发展。
When I was a student at MIT we all shared one computer that took up a whole building. 当我尚是一位麻省理工的学生时, 我们班共用一台占据了整栋房子的电脑。
The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper, a million times smaller, a thousand times more powerful. 不过现在的手机芯片比那台电脑便宜一百万倍 体型也小了一百万倍, 但功能却强大了千倍。
cellphone:n.蜂窝式便携无线电话;大哥大;
That's a billion-fold increase in capability per dollar that we've actually experienced since I was a student. 这就相当于一美元有亿倍的增长能力 从我尚是一名学生到现在,这就是我所经历的。
capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量;
And we're going to do it again in the next 25 years. 这样的快速发展还会保持25年。
Information technology progresses through a series of S-curves where each one is a different paradigm . 信息技术通过一系列 S-曲线的考验后 将可以到达不同的模式。
series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书; paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表;
So people say, "What's going to happen when Moore's Law comes to an end?" 因此有人问:”当摩尔定律效尽时,这世界将会如何？“
Which will happen around 2020. 我相信这大概会在2020年发生。
We'll then go to the next paradigm. 我们将会进入一新纪元。
And Moore's Law was not the first paradigm to bring exponential growth to computing . 摩尔定律并不是第一个 导致信息技术进行指数增长的范式。
computing:n.计算;计算机技术;信息处理技术;v.计算;求出;(compute的现在分词)
The exponential growth of computing started decades before Gordon Moore was even born. 信息技术的指数增长发生于 戈登·摩尔出生的十几年前。
And it doesn't just apply to computation. 它不仅仅局限于信息技术。
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
It's really any technology where we can measure the underlying information properties. 而且包含了我们 所知的所有科技中。
underlying:adj.根本的; v.构成…的基础; (underlie的现在分词)
Here we have 49 famous computers. I put them in a logarithmic graph. 我将49台不同年代的电脑整理进一幅对数图。
logarithmic:adj.对数的;
The logarithmic scale hides the scale of the increase. 对数的大小遮掩住真正增长的比率。
scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
Because this represents trillions-fold increase since the 1890 census . 因为这些代表着自1890年以来, 科技的万亿倍增长。
represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) census:vt.实施统计调查;n.人口普查,人口调查;
In 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes, making them smaller and smaller. They finally hit a wall. 在50年代,工程师们都为尽可能地 缩小真空管而努力。但最终碰了壁。
shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词) vacuum:n.真空; adj.真空的; v.用真空吸尘器清扫; finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
They couldn't shrink the vacuum tube any more and keep the vacuum. 他们无法继续缩小真空管并同时保持着真空的状态。
And that was the end of the shrinking of vacuum tubes. 这就是真空管缩小事件的结果。
But it was not the end of the exponential growth of computing. 却不是信息技术的指数增长的停滞。
We went to the fourth paradigm, transistors , and finally integrated circuits . 于是我们进入到第四种模式,晶体管, 然后来到集成电路。
transistors:n.[电子]晶体管;晶体三极管(transistor的复数); integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词) circuits:n.环行路线;电路;线路;巡回赛;v.巡回;周游;(circuit的第三人称单数和复数)
When that comes to an end we'll go to the sixth paradigm, three-dimensional self-organizing molecular circuits. 当上述过程结束后,我们将会迈进第六种模式, 三维自组分子电路。
three-dimensional:adj.三维的;立体的;真实的; self-organizing:n.[计]自组织; molecular:adj.[化学]分子的;由分子组成的;
But what's even more amazing, really, than this fantastic scale of progress, is that look at how predictable this is. 但更惊人的是, 比这神奇的过程更惊人的是, 预测科技发展的简单性。
fantastic:奇异的,空想的 predictable:adj.可预言的;
I mean this went through thick and thin, through war and peace, through boom times and recessions . 科技发展是经历了所有时期, 如战争期与和平期、繁荣期与衰退期。
boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的; recessions:n.衰退;凹入的地方(recession的复数形式);
The Great Depression made not a dent in this exponential progression . 大萧条根本没有影响科技发展的指数增长。
Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁; dent:n.凹痕;[名]登特;v.使…凹陷;破坏; progression:n.前进;连续;
We'll see the same thing in the economic recession we're having now. 我相信我们会在这次金融危机中见到同样的东西。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
At least the exponential growth of information technology capability will continue unabated . 至少信息技术的指数增长能力 将不会减弱。
unabated:adj.不减弱的,不衰退的;
And I just updated these graphs. 这些图是我刚刚更新过的。
updated:adj.更新的;现代化的;v.使现代化;更新;(update的过去分词和过去式)
Because I had them through 2002 in my book, "The Singularity is Near." 于我所著的书《奇点将至》中,这些数据只更新到2002年。
Singularity:n.奇异;奇点;突出;稀有;
So we updated them so I could present it here, to 2007. 所以我将它们 更新至2007年。
And I was asked, "Well aren't you nervous? 很多问我:”你不紧张么？
Maybe it kind of didn't stay on this exponential progression." 或许它们并不能证明指数增长的说法。”
I was a little nervous because maybe the data wouldn't be right, but I've done this now for 30 years, and it has stayed on this exponential progression. 我的确有点紧张, 因为这些数据有可能是错误的, 但我在这行里干了30多年, 而且这行的发展趋势的确遵照指数增长的规律。
Look at this graph here.You could buy one transistor for a dollar in 1968. 看,在1968年,一件晶体管需要一美元。
You can buy half a billion today. 现在,你则可以买五亿件。
And they are actually better, because they are faster. 实际上,现在的晶体管质量更好。
But look at how predictable this is. 看看科技发展是多么好预测的。
And I'd say this knowledge is over-fitting to past data. 只是我会说这些资讯是过去式的了。
I've been making these forward-looking predictions for about 30 years. 我已经做过30年的前瞻性预测了。
forward-looking:adj.有远见的;向前看的;
And the cost of a transistor cycle, which is a measure of the price performance of electronics , comes down about every year. 晶体管的费用 相应地呈现了电子市场的价格水准, 这每年都在下降。
performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演; electronics:n.电子学;电子工业;
That's a 50 percent deflation rate. 那说明了百分之50的下降率。
deflation:n.通货紧缩;放气;
And it's also true of other examples like DNA data or brain data. 这也适用于其他例子 如DNA数据或大脑数据。
But we more than make up for that. 不过社会发展的更快。
make up for:补偿,弥补;
We actually ship more than twice as much of every form of information technology. 事实上,我们的生产力比 同等的科技要高两倍。
We've had 18 percent growth in constant dollars in every form of information technology for the last half century. 这半个世纪里,每样科技的价值 都增长了百分之18。
Despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it each year. 尽管你每年可以收获两次回报,
Despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱;
This is a completely different example. 这是一全新的例子。
This is not Moore's Law. 这并不是摩尔定律。
The amount of DNA data we've sequenced has doubled every year. 我们每年都可以获得 增加了一倍以上的DNA数据。
sequenced:[数][计]序列;
The cost has come down by half every year. 费用却每年减少一半。
And this has been a smooth progression since the beginning of the genome project. 自从人类基因定序计划以来, 这已成为一持续的发展定律。
genome:n.基因组;染色体组;
And halfway through the project, skeptics said, "This is not working out. You're halfway through the genome project and you've finished one percent of the project." 当计划进行至一半时, 怀疑者们说:“这不会成功的。计划时间已过了一半, 而你们只完成了百分之一的工作。”
skeptics:n.疑论者,怀疑主义者(skeptic的复数形式);
But that was really right on schedule . 但按照时间表来说,这是可行的。
on schedule:adv.按时;按照预定时间;
Because if you double one percent seven more times, which is exactly what happened, you get 100 percent. And the project was finished on time. 假如你将百分之一用而乘七次, 这就是实际上会发生的, 那就是百分之百。计划也按时完成了。
Communication technologies: 50 different ways to measure this. 通信技术有 50种不同的方式来评量。
The number of bits being moved around, the size of the Internet. 如移动的位元数目和网络的大小。
But this has progressed at an exponential pace. 但科技正以指数步伐前进。
This is deeply democratizing . 这是强烈地民主化。
democratizing:民主化;
I wrote, over 20 years ago in "The Age of Intelligent Machines," 20年前,我在《智能简史》中写到,
Intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的
when the Soviet Union was going strong , that it would be swept away by this growth of decentralized communication. 随着苏联的扩张,它将会被增长的 通信势力所瓦解。
Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人; going strong:强健的;良好的; swept:v.扫除(sweep的过去式和过去分词);adj.扫频的; decentralized:adj.分散的; vt.使分散;
And we will have plenty of computation as we go through the 21st century to do things like simulate regions of the human brain. 当我们走过21世纪时,我们将会拥有新技术 来协助我们进行模拟大脑区域等实验。
simulate:vt.模仿;假装;冒充;adj.模仿的;假装的; regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数)
But where will we get the software? 但我们从哪里得到这些技术？
Some critics say, "Oh, well software is stuck in the mud." 一些评论家说:“哦,科技还没到那种地步呢。”
critics:n.评论家;批评者;吹毛求疵的人(critic的复数);
But we are learning more and more about the human brain. 岂知我们正逐步了解大脑。
Spatial resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year. 大脑扫描的空间分辨率,每年都有一倍地提高。
Spatial:adj.空间的;存在于空间的;受空间条件限制的; resolution:n.解决;分辨;解析;决议;
The amount of data we're getting about the brain is doubling every year. 相关的数据,也随之一倍增长。
And we're showing that we can actually turn this data into working models and simulations of brain regions. 我们正在证明我们可以转化这些数据 为大脑区域的模型和模拟实验。
simulations:n.[计]模拟(simulation的复数);[计]仿真;
There is about 20 regions of the brain that have been modeled, simulated and tested: the auditory cortex , regions of the visual cortex , cerebellum , where we do our skill formation, slices of the cerebral cortex , where we do our rational thinking. 我们目前已模拟和测试了 20个大脑区域: 听觉和视觉皮层, 小脑,我们身体的协调器, 部分大脑皮层,我们进行理性思考的部分。
simulated:adj.假装的; v.假装; (simulate的过去式和过去分词) auditory:n.听众;礼堂;adj.听觉的;耳朵的; cortex:n.[解剖]皮质;树皮;果皮; visual:adj.视觉的,视力的;栩栩如生的; cerebellum:n.[解剖]小脑; slices:n.切片,切割(slice的复数形式);v.切成薄片(slice的三单形式); cerebral:adj.大脑的,脑的; rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的;
And all of this has fueled an increase, very smooth and predictable, of productivity . 这些发现都非常平稳 和在预料之中帮助和增长了生产力。
productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力;
We've gone from 30 dollars to 130 dollars in constant dollars in the value of an average hour of human labor, fueled by this information technology. 我们的小时工资已从 30美元增长至130美元了, 这就是因信息技术的进步。
And we're all concerned about energy and the environment. 这还只是对能源和环境的影响。
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
Well this is a logarithmic graph. 这里又是一幅对数图。
This represents a smooth doubling, every two years, of the amount of solar energy we're creating. 我们所利用的太阳能 每两年都增长一倍。
Particularly as we're now applying nanotechnology , a form of information technology, to solar panels . 正是由于现时的纳米技术, 这是一种信息技术。
Particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; applying:v.申请,请求;使用;应用;(apply的现在分词) nanotechnology:n.纳米技术; panels:n.面板(panel的复数); v.嵌镶(panel的第三人称单数形式);
And we're only eight doublings away from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs. 我们只要再经历八次双倍增长, 我们就可以百分之百地利用太阳能。
doublings:n.加倍; v.使加倍; adj.双重的;
And there is 10 thousand times more sunlight than we need. 而这些能力将会是万倍多于我们所需的。
sunlight:n.日光;
We ultimately will merge with this technology. It's already very close to us. 我们会最终接受这项技术。它的脚步已近了。
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; merge:vt.合并;使合并;吞没;vi.合并;融合;
When I was a student it was across campus . Now it fits in our pockets. 当我尚是一名学生时,电脑有整个校园那么大,而现在却可以装进口袋里。
campus:n.(大学)校园;大学,大学生活;校园内的草地;
What used to take up a building now fits in our pockets. 以前需求整栋大楼的资源却被现时的口袋替代了。
What now fits in our pockets would fit in a blood cell in 25 years. 哪知25年后,这些将可以装进我们的红血球里。
And we will begin to actually deeply influence our health and our intelligence, as we get closer and closer to this technology. 当我们迈向这项技术时, 它将会真正左右 我们的健康和智慧。
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
Based on that we are announcing, here at TED, in true TED tradition, Singularity University. 根据TED的传统, 我将在此公布,奇点大学。
It's a new university that's founded by Peter Diamandis, who is here in the audience, and myself. 这是一所全新的大学, 由我和台下的彼得·迪曼蒂斯先生 共同创立。
It's backed by NASA and Google , and other leaders in the high-tech and science community . 它还获得美国太空总署和谷歌的赞助, 以及其他高科领域的领袖们的支持。
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; high-tech:adj.高科技的,高技术的;仿真技术的;n.高科技; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
And our goal was to assemble the leaders, both teachers and students, in these exponentially growing information technologies, and their application . 我们的目标是召集领袖们, 不管是学生还是老师, 来共同研究正在指数增长的信息技术和 它的应用。
assemble:vt.集合,聚集;装配;收集;vi.集合,聚集; application:n.应用;申请;应用程序;敷用;
But Larry Page made an impassioned speech at our organizing meeting, saying we should devote this study to actually addressing some of the major challenges facing humanity . 拉里·佩奇先生在我们的内部会议上 发表了以慷慨激昂的演讲, 他说我们应致力研究 如何真正解决人类面临的一些重大挑战。
impassioned:adj.充满激情的;感激的;v.使充满激情(impassion的过去式和过去分词); devote:v.贡献;把…专用于;听任; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
And if we did that, then Google would back this. 假使我们这样做,谷歌定会资助我们。
And so that's what we've done. 这就是我们所做的改变。
The last third of the nine week intensive summer session will be devoted to a group project to address some major challenge of humanity. 在紧张的九周暑假学营的最后三周里, 我们将会投身于研究 一些现实社会里的重大问题。
intensive:adj.加强的;集中的;透彻的;加强语气的;n.加强器; session:n.会议;(法庭的)开庭;(议会等的)开会;学期;讲习会; devoted:adj.专心致志; v.献身; (devote的过去分词和过去式)
Like for example, applying the Internet, which is now ubiquitous , in the rural areas of China or in Africa, to bringing health information to developing areas of the world. 如将网络普及至 中国和非洲的乡村地区, 从而将健康资讯 传播至世界的每个角落。
ubiquitous:adj.普遍存在的;无所不在的; rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的;
And these projects will continue past these sessions , using collaborative interactive communication. 这项计划将会延伸至学营外, 通过协作来讨论。
sessions:n.会议;会期(session的复数); collaborative:adj.合作的,协作的; interactive:adj.合作的;相互影响的;互相配合的;交互式的;n.交互式视频设备;
All the intellectual property that is created and taught will be online and available, and developed online in a collaborative fashion. 而这些讨论所催生的智慧财产 将会在网络上公开 并在网络上进一步深入。
intellectual property:知识产权;
Here is our founding meeting. 这是创校会议的照片。
But this is being announced today. 我今天将在这宣布。
It will be permanently headquartered in Silicon Valley , at the NASA Ames research center. 奇点大学会永久设置于硅谷里的 美国太空总署的埃米斯研究所。
permanently:adv.永久地,长期不变地; headquartered:adj.以…为总部所在地的;v.设立总部于(headquarter的过去式和过去分词); Silicon Valley:n.硅谷(美国加利福尼亚州一处计算机和电子公司聚集地,有时用以指任何计算机公司聚集地); Ames:n.艾姆斯氏试验;
There are different programs for graduate students, for executives at different companies. 研究生和公司的主管们将会 被提供不同的课程。
executives:n.经理,主管领导,管理人员;领导层;行政部门(executive的复数)
The first six tracks here, artificial intelligence , advanced computing technologies, biotechnology , nanotechnology are the different core areas of information technology. 主要的方面将会是,人工智能, 先进的电脑技术,生物技术,纳米技术, 这些都是信息技术里不同的核心领域。
tracks:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;(track的第三人称单数和复数) artificial intelligence:n.人工智能; advanced:adj.先进的; v.前进; (advance的过去式和过去分词形式) biotechnology:n.[生物]生物技术;[生物]生物工艺学; core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核;
Then we are going to apply them to the other areas, like energy, ecology, policy law and ethics , entrepreneurship , so that people can bring these new technologies to the world. 然后我们将会将他们应用至其它领域, 如能源,生态环境, 政策法律,道德和企业等, 因此学员们可以将这些新技术带给全世界。
policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; ethics:n.伦理学;伦理观;道德标准; entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神;
So we're very appreciative of the support we've gotten from both the intellectual leaders, the high-tech leaders, particularly Google and NASA. 我们非常感谢那些帮过我们的人, 不管是学者领袖,还是高科领域的领袖, 特别感谢谷歌和美国太空总署。
appreciative:adj.感激的;赏识的;有欣赏力的;承认有价值的;
This is an exciting new venture . 这是一次崭新的刺激冒险。
venture:v.敢于;冒险;投机;n.企业;风险;冒险;
And we invite you to participate . Thank you very much. 我们邀请你们来参加。非常感谢。
participate:v.参加;参与;
(Applause) (鼓掌)