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RandallMunroe_2014-_由漫画引出的假设分析_
So, I have a feature on my website where every week people submit hypothetical questions for me to answer, and I try to answer them using math, science and comics. 我的网站上有一个功能, 在那里人们每周可以向我发问, 一些假设性的问题。 而我会尽量以数学、科学 和漫画的形式来回答。
submit:vt.使服从;主张;呈递;vi.提交;服从; hypothetical:adj.假设的;爱猜想的;
So for example, one person asked, what would happen if you tried to hit a baseball pitched at 90 percent of the speed of light? 例如,有人问: 如果你试图击中一个速度为高达 光速的90%的棒球,将会怎么样？
pitched:adj.倾斜的;v.用力扔;投;抛;投球;当投手;触地;(pitch的过去分词和过去式)
So I did some calculations. 然后我做了计算,
Now, normally , when an object flies through the air, the air will flow around the object, but in this case, the ball would be going so fast that the air molecules wouldn't have time to move out of the way. 通常情况下,当一个物体在空气中飞行, 空气将绕着此物环流。 但是对于这个案例,
normally:adv.正常地;通常地,一般地; molecules:n.[化学]分子,微粒;[化学]摩尔(molecule的复数);
The ball would smash right into and through them, and the collisions with these air molecules would knock away the nitrogen , carbon and hydrogen from the ball, fragmenting it off into tiny particles , and also triggering waves of thermonuclear fusion in the air around it. 棒球将会碰撞空气并穿透空气分子, 然后这些与空气分子的撞击运动, 将会把氮、碳、氢 同时也在空气中引发热核聚变的波。
smash:v.粉碎; n.破碎; adj.了不起的; collisions:n.[物]碰撞;冲突;撞击(collision的复数形式); knock away:vi.敲下;不停地敲; nitrogen:n.氮;氮气; carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的; hydrogen:n.氢;氢气; fragmenting:n.分割;碎裂;v.破碎(fragment的ing形式);分割; particles:n.微粒,粒子;粒子系统;碎木料(particle的复数形式); triggering:n.[电子]触发;起动;v.引起(trigger的ing形式);扣…的扳机; thermonuclear:adj.[核]热核的;高热原子核反应的; fusion:n.融合;熔化;熔接;融合物;[物]核聚变;
This would result in a flood of x-rays that would spread out in a bubble along with exotic particles, plasma inside, centered on the pitcher 's mound , and that would move away from the pitcher 's mound slightly faster than the ball. 这将导致 并伴随着一些外来粒子, 泡沫里面是等离子,集中在投球区。 然后这些X光线将 以比球稍快的速度远离棒球。
spread out:冒火;喷火; bubble:n.泡;气泡;肥皂泡;一点感情;v.起泡;冒泡;洋溢着(某种感情); exotic:adj.异国的;外来的;异国情调的; plasma:n.[等离子]等离子体;血浆;[矿物]深绿玉髓; pitcher:n.投手;大水罐; mound:n.小丘;小山岗;一堆;许多;大量; slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地;
Now at this point, about 30 nanoseconds in, the home plate is far enough away that light hasn't had time to reach it, which means the batter still sees the pitcher about to throw and has no idea that anything is wrong. 此时,大约在 30 奈秒内, 本垒板远到 光来不及去触及它。 这意味着球棒打者仍能 看见投手即将抛球的动作, 并且没想到事情不对劲。
nanoseconds:n.纳秒;十亿分之一秒; home plate:n.本垒;本垒板;abbr.(=homebase2); batter:n.击球手;面糊(煎料);面糊(用于做糕饼);击球员;v.连续猛击;殴打;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Now, after 70 nanoseconds, the ball will reach home plate, or at least the cloud of expanding plasma that used to be the ball, and it will engulf the bat and the batter and the plate and the catcher and the umpire and start disintegrating them all as it also starts to carry them backward through the backstop , which also starts to disintegrate . 现在,70 奈秒之后, 这个棒球将会击中本垒板, 亦或是那些球分离出的 扩散的等离子集合体, 它将吞没球棒、打者、 本垒板、补手和裁判, 然后将它们全部分解, 同时棒球运载这些分解物 穿过挡球网,挡球网也被分解。
expanding:v.扩大,增加,增强细谈;详述;(expand的现在分词) engulf:vt.吞没;吞食,狼吞虎咽; catcher:n.捕手,捕捉者;接球手; umpire:裁判员 disintegrating:adj.瓦解的;分裂的;v.瓦解(disintegrate的ing形式);分裂; backward:adj.向后的;反向的;发展迟缓的;adv.向后地;相反地; backstop:n.挡球网;捕手;支撑物; disintegrate:vt.使分解;使碎裂;使崩溃;使衰变;vi.瓦解;碎裂;衰变;
So if you were watching this whole thing from a hill, ideally , far away, what you'd see is a bright flash of light that would fade over a few seconds, followed by a blast wave spreading out, shredding trees and houses as it moves away from the stadium , and then eventually a mushroom cloud rising up over the ruined city. (Laughter) 因此如果你从一座山上 观察全过程 理想状态下,要够远, 你看到的是一道闪光, 在数秒后消褪。 同时伴随闪光的冲击波会扩散 并撕毁树和房子, 与此同时它远离运动场, 最终一朵蘑菇云 从这废城中升起。
ideally:adv.理想地;观念上地; flash:n.闪光; v.闪光; adj.庞大的; fade:v.褪色; adj.平淡的; n.[电影][电视]淡出; blast:n.爆炸; v.爆破; shredding:v.切碎;撕碎;(shred的现在分词) stadium:n.[体]露天大型体育场;[病]病期;[生]生长期;龄期; eventually:adv.最后,终于; mushroom cloud:n.(核爆炸形成的)蘑菇云; ruined:adj.毁灭的;荒废的;v.毁坏;破坏;糟蹋;(ruin的过去分词和过去式)
So the Major League Baseball rules are a little bit hazy , but — (Laughter) — under rule 6.02 and 5.09, 美国职業棒球大联盟 对此的评分规则颇为模糊, （笑声）但针对规则6.02和5.09,
Major League:adj.第一流的;职业体育总会的; hazy:adj.朦胧的;模糊的;有薄雾的;
I think that in this situation, the batter would be considered hit by pitch and would be eligible to take first base , if it still existed. 我想在这种情况下, 打者将会被认为被球击中, 并有资格上一垒, 如果垒包还存在的话。
eligible:adj.合格的,合适的;符合条件的;有资格当选的;n.合格者;适任者;有资格者; first base:n.一垒;
So this is the kind of question I answer, and I get people writing in with a lot of other strange questions. 这些就是我常回答的问题。 我让大家写下的 各种千奇百怪的问题。
I've had someone write and say, scientifically speaking, what is the best and fastest way to hide a body? 今天有人问我: 从科学的角度, 有没有藏具尸体最佳最快的方法？
scientifically:adv.系统地;合乎科学地;学问上;
Can you do this one soon? 可以麻烦你尽快解答吗？
And I had someone write in, 也有人问,
I've had people write in about, can you prove whether or not you can find love again after your heart's broken? 有人写, 你能否证明
whether or not:是否…;
And I've had people send in what are clearly homework questions they're trying to get me to do for them. 还有人发给我 很明显是作業题目, 希望我可以替他们效劳。
But one week, a couple months ago, 但在几个月前的某个星期,
I got a question that was actually about Google . 有人问了我一个关于谷歌的问题,
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎;
If all digital data in the world were stored on punch cards, how big would Google's data warehouse be? 如果把世界上所有数据保存在穿孔卡片上, 那么谷歌的数据庫要多大才足够？
digital:adj.数字的;手指的;n.数字;键; punch:n.冲床; v.拳打; (用打孔器等)打孔; data warehouse:n.数据仓库(汇集企业各部门信息的大量数据);
Now, Google's pretty secretive about their operations, so no one really knows how much data Google has, and in fact, no one really knows how many data centers Google has, except people at Google itself. 然而谷歌对自身运营情况十分保密, 无人晓得谷歌数据有多少。 实际上,没人真正清楚谷歌拥有多少数据中心, 除了谷歌内部人员外。
secretive:adj.秘密的;偷偷摸摸的;促进分泌的;
And I've tried, I've met them a few times, tried asking them, and they aren't revealing anything. 我尝试过去瞭解并与他们碰过几次面,
revealing:adj.暴露的;发人深省的;v.揭示;露出;显示;展示;(reveal的现在分词)
So I decided to try to figure this out myself. 因此我决定自寻答案。
There are a few things that I looked at here. 有注意到几个方面,
I started with money. 先从资金说起,
Google has to reveal how much they spend, in general , and that lets you put some caps on how many data centers could they be building, because a big data center costs a certain amount of money. 谷歌必须得公开它们的开支状况, 因为一个大型数据中心花费相当多。
in general:总之,通常;一般而言;
And you can also then put a cap on how much of the world hard drive market are they taking up, which turns out, it's pretty sizable . 他们占世界硬碟市场的份量。 这数额也是相当可观的。
hard drive:n.硬盘驱动器; sizable:adj.相当大的;大小相当的;
I read a calculation at one point, 我曾经看到过一个估算,我认为谷歌
I think Google has a drive failure about every minute or two, and they just throw out the hard drive and swap in a new one. 每一到两秒会发生硬碟故障。 他们会立刻扔掉坏的硬碟, 并且换上新的。
throw out:v.扔掉;伸出;说出;否决;突出; swap:n.交换;交换之物;vt.与...交换;以...作交换;vi.交换;交易;
So they go through a huge number of them. 所以这过程消耗了大量的硬碟。
And so by looking at money, you can get an idea of how many of these centers they have. 我们再回到资金方面, 你可以大致瞭解
You can also look at power. 你也可以观察能源方面,
You can look at how much electricity they need, because you need a certain amount of electricity to run the servers, and Google is more efficient than most, but they still have some basic requirements, and that lets you put a limit on the number of servers that they have. 看看他们需要多少电量。 这是因为运行伺服器需要相当多的电力, 然而他们还是遵循一些基本要求, 然后让你对他们的伺服器数量设限。
electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪; efficient:adj.有效率的;有能力的;生效的;
You can also look at square footage and see of the data centers that you know, how big are they? 你也可以从面积入手, 它们有多大？
footage:n.英尺长度;连续镜头;以尺计算长度;
How much room is that? 容量是多少？
How many server racks could you fit in there? 里面可以容纳多少伺服器支架？
racks:n.货架; v.折磨;
And for some data centers, you might get two of these pieces of information. 对于一些数据中心, 你或许会获取其中两份讯息。
You know how much they spent, and they also, say, because they had to contract with the local government to get the power provided , you might know what they made a deal to buy, so you know how much power it takes. 假设你知道他们的开支, 同样地,因为他们必须和地方政府 签订协议来获取能源。 你会大概知道他们交易的内容, 知道有多少能源被消耗。
contract:v.收缩;感染;订约;n.合同;婚约; local government:n.地方自治;地方政府(机构); provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式)
Then you can look at the ratios of those numbers, and figure out for a data center where you don't have that information, you can figure out, but maybe you only have one of those, 接着,你可以看看这些数目的比率, 然后计算一个 你不熟识的数据中心。 这也能计算,
ratios:n.比率(ratio的复数); v.以比率表示;
you know the square footage, then you could figure out well, maybe the power is proportional . 你知道面积,
proportional:adj.比例的,成比例的;相称的,均衡的;n.[数]比例项;
And you can do this same thing with a lot of different quantities , you know, with guesses about the total amount of storage, the number of servers, the number of drives per server, and in each case using what you know to come up with a model that narrows down your guesses for the things that you don't know. 你可以运用各种不同数据 来进行相同运算。通过对总容量、 伺服器数目、每台伺服器的 硬碟数目的估算,在每一项中 用已知来拟建出一个模型, 缩小对未知对象的猜测范围。
quantities:n.数量;数目;大量;大宗;(quantity的复数) come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
It's sort of circling around the number you're trying to get. 这有点像在这些数据里循环,
And this is a lot of fun. 乐趣十足。
The math is not all that advanced , and really it's like nothing more than solving a sudoku puzzle . 数学计算并不是完全先进, 说实在这不过就像 做出一道数独题目罢了。
advanced:adj.先进的; v.前进; (advance的过去式和过去分词形式) sudoku:n.数独,九宫格游戏; puzzle:n.谜;疑问;智力游戏;不解之谜;v.迷惑;使困惑;
So what I did, I went through all of this information, spent a day or two researching. 我所做的只是浏览所有相关信息, 用一两天的时间做调查。
And there are some things I didn't look at. 还有,我未曾注意到这几方面:
You could always look at the Google recruitment messages that they post. 而你可多留意 谷歌发布的征才启示。
recruitment:n.补充;征募新兵;
That gives you an idea of where they have people. 由此可知他们在哪些地方需要员工。
Sometimes, when people visit a data center, they'll take a cell-cam photo and post it, and they aren't supposed to, but you can learn things about their hardware that way. 当有人参观某数据中心时, 他们会用手机拍照并公开照片。 虽然他们不应该这么做, 但你可以由此得知硬碟的情况。
supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) hardware:n.计算机硬件;五金器具;
And in fact, you can just look at pizza delivery drivers. 实际上,你仅需留意那些比萨饼速递员,
delivery:n.[贸易]交付;分娩;递送;
Turns out, they know where all the Google data centers are, at least the ones that have people in them. 他们其实知道所有谷歌数据中心的具体位置, 最起码是那些有人的数据中心。
But I came up with my estimate , which I felt pretty good about, that was about 10 exabytes of data across all of Google's operations, and then another maybe five exabytes or so of offline storage in tape drives, which it turns out Google is about the world's largest consumer of. 然而我想到了一个让我 兴奋不已的一个估测: 那是关于覆盖整个 谷歌操作系统的10 EB的数据量, 另外大约五个EB的离线数据 被保存在磁带伺服器里。 这印证了谷歌 是世界上最大的消耗者。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本; exabytes:二的六十次方位元组; offline:n.脱机;挂线;adj.脱机的;离线的,未连线的;adv.未连线地; consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者;
So I came up with this estimate, and this is a staggering amount of data. 所以我想出了这个估测, 这一数值也是大到相当惊人。
staggering:adj.惊人的; v.蹒跚; (stagger的现在分词)
It's quite a bit more than any other organization in the world has, as far as we know. 这超过了世界上其他任何一个机构, 就目前已知的来说。
organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体; as far as:至于…;
There's a couple of other contenders , especially everyone always thinks of the NSA. 同时总会有些其他竞争对手, 尤其是众所周知的美国国家安全局,
contenders:n.竞争者;角逐者;争夺者;(contender的复数) especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
But using some of these same methods, we can look at the NSA's data centers, and figure out, you know, we don't know what's going on there, but it's pretty clear that their operation is not the size of Google's. 但运用以上某些相同的方法, 我们可以观察到国家安全局的数据中心。 但很清楚的是,它们的操作系统大小和谷歌的不同。
Adding all of this up, I came up with the other thing that we can answer, which is, how many punch cards would this take? 统计起来, 我想出了一个我们可以回答的问题, 那就是,这将需要张多少穿孔卡片？
And so a punch card can hold about 80 characters, and you can fit about 2,000 or so cards into a box, and you put them in, say, my home region of New England, it would cover the entire region 一张穿孔卡片可以 容纳约80个字母。 接着,一个盒子能被大约2000张卡片装满。 我们打个比方, 这些卡片可覆盖我家乡
region:n.地区;范围;部位;
up to a depth of a little less than five kilometers, which is about three times deeper than the glaciers during the last ice age about 20,000 years ago. 覆盖深度稍稍低于5000米。 这差不多是上一个冰河时期冰川深度的三倍。 这大约在两万多年前。
glaciers:n.[地理][水文]冰川(glacier的复数);[地理][水文]冰河;
So this is impractical , but I think that's about the best answer I could come up with. 即使这想法不切实际, 但这是我所能想到的最佳答案。
impractical:adj.不切实际的,不现实的;不能实行的;
And I posted it on my website. I wrote it up. 我在我官网上发布并写出过程,
And I didn't expect to get an answer from Google, because of course they've been so secretive, they didn't answer of my questions, and so I just put it up and said, well, I guess we'll never know. 然而我没预料到能得到谷歌的回覆。 当然他们一直保密有加, 所以并没有直接回答我的问题, 我只是顺便说说: 我们永远都不会知道答案。
But then a little while later 但是过了一会儿,
I got a message, a couple weeks later, from Google, saying, hey, someone here has an envelope for you. 也就是几周前,我收到谷歌的讯息。 我被告知我有封来信。
envelope:n.信封,封皮;包膜;[天]包层;包迹;
So I go and get it, open it up, and it's punch cards. (Laughter) 我拿来打开一看, 里面全是穿孔卡片。（笑声）
Google-branded punch cards. 谷歌牌的穿孔卡片。
And on these punch cards, there are a bunch of holes, and I said, thank you, thank you, okay, so what's on here? 卡片上有很多孔。 我还是表示感谢。 好,究竟上面有什么？
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆;
So I get some software and start reading it, and scan them, and it turns out it's a puzzle. 我藉助一些软体, 开始读它,并扫描。
There's a bunch of code, and I get some friends to help, and we crack the code, and then inside that is another code, and then there are some equations , and then we solve those equations , and then finally out pops a message from Google which is their official answer to my article, and it said, No comment. 里面有一堆编码。 在友人相助下, 我们破解了一个编码后,里面藏着新编码。 还有一些方程式。 我们算出了这些算式后, 谷歌那边发来了一条讯息, 也是他们对我文章
crack:v.使破裂;打开;变声;n.裂缝;声变;噼啪声;adj.最好的;高明的; equations:n.方程式;等式;均等;均势(equation的复数形式); finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; official:adj.官方的;正式的;公务的;n.官员;公务员;高级职员;
(Laughter) (Applause) （笑声）（掌声）
And I love calculating these kinds of things, and it's not that I love doing the math. 我热爱计算各式奇异的东西。 这不只是因为我喜欢数学。
I do a lot of math, but I don't really like math for its own sake . 是的,我常做很多演算, 但我并不针对喜欢数学本身。
sake:n.目的;利益;理由;日本米酒;
What I love is that it lets you take some things that you know, and just by moving symbols around on a piece of paper, find out something that you didn't know that's very surprising. 我真正喜欢的是数学 能让你运用你已知的,
symbols:n.符号;象征;标志;符号表(symbol的复数);
And I have a lot of stupid questions, and I love that math gives the power to answer them sometimes. 我常有很多笨问题, 我欣赏数学能辅助我 去解决这些问题。
And sometimes not. 但也不是时时都行得通。
This is a question I got from a reader, an anonymous reader, and the subject line just said, Urgent , and this was the entire email: 下面是一个读者给我的问题, 一个匿名读者, 标题写了「紧急」一词。 邮件内容如下:
anonymous:adj.匿名的,无名的;无个性特征的; Urgent:adj.紧急的;急迫的;
If people had wheels and could fly, how would we differentiate them from airplanes ? 如果人们有轮子而且有飞行能力, 我们将如何区分这些人和飞机呢？
differentiate:vi.区分,区别;vt.区分,区别; airplanes:n.(美)[航]飞机(airplane的复数);
Urgent. (Laughter) 这是个紧急问题。
And I think there are some questions that math just cannot answer. （笑声）我觉得有对某些问题, 数学无能为力的。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）