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PhilPlait_2018X-_科学发现的奥秘是什么？犯错误_
Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science -- about how it works and what it is. 人们对于科学有很多误解—— 关于科学原理和科学的含义。
misconceptions:n.迷思概念;错误的想法;
A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts. 一个最大的误解是, 科学只是一大堆陈旧的事实。
pile:n.桩;堆;摞;桩柱;v.堆放;摞起;叠放;放置;
But that's not true -- that's not even the goal of science. 但这并不正确 ——这甚至不是科学的目的。
Science is a process . 科学是一个过程。
process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
It's a way of thinking. 它是一种思考方式。
Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it's not the goal. 收集事实只是其中一步, 但并非目的。
The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality the best way we know how, and that's based on evidence . 科学的最终目的 是用我们所知道的最优方法 来理解客观事实, 即要以证据为基础。
ultimate:adj.最终的;极限的;根本的;n.终极;根本;基本原则; objective:n.目标; adj.客观的; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
The problem here is that people are flawed . 问题在于,人类是有缺陷的。
flawed:adj.有缺陷的;有瑕疵的;有裂纹的;
We can be fooled -- we're really good at fooling ourselves. 我们可能被愚弄—— 我们真的很擅长欺骗自己。
And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias . 所以,融入科学的探究过程, 是一种将偏见最小化的方法。
baked:v.烘烤;焙;烤硬;灼热;(bake的过去分词和过去式) minimizing:v.使减少到最低限度;降低;贬低;使显得不重要;(minimize的现在分词) bias:adv.使有偏见;n.偏见;偏心;偏爱;v.使有偏见;使偏向;adj.斜的;[电]偏动的;
So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful, here's how this works. 总结起来说可能更好, 科学的原理如下。
If you want to do some science, what you want to do is you want to observe something ... 如果你想要做点科学研究, 观察一些事物…
observe:v.观察;看到;庆祝;监视;
say, "The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?" 举例来说,“天空是蓝的, 我很好奇为什么是这样？”
You question it. 你提出疑问。
The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it: a hypothesis . 下一步你要做的 是提出一个可能的解释: 一个假设。
come up with:提出;想出;赶上; hypothesis:n.假设;
Well, you know what? Oceans are blue. 首先,海水是蓝的。
Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean. 也许天空反射了海洋的蓝色。
reflecting:v.反映;映出(影像);反射;显示,表明,表达;(reflect的现在分词)
Great, but now you have to test it so you predict what that might mean. 很好,但现在你得检验它, 去推测这意味着什么。
predict:v.预报;预言;预告;
Your prediction would be, "Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color, it will be bluer on the coasts than it will be in the middle of the country." 你的预测可能是, “哦,如果天空反射了海洋的颜色, 那么海水在海边的颜色 要比在一个国家的内陆部分更蓝。”
prediction:n.预报;预言;
OK, that's fair enough , but you've got to test that prediction so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day, you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue. 好的,这很合理, 但你得验证那个预测, 于是你坐上飞机,在一个 灰蒙蒙的好日子里离开丹佛, 飞到洛杉矶,望向天空, 天空映衬着壮丽的蔚蓝色。
fair enough:同意或接受但有所保留; Denver:n.丹佛(地名,美国城市); gloriously:adv.光荣地;辉煌地;壮观地,壮丽地;
Hooray, your thesis is proven. 太好了,你的论点被证明了。
But is it really? No. 但真是这样吗？不是。
You've made one observation . 你做了一个观察。
observation:n.观察;观测;监视;(尤指据所见、所闻、所读而作的)评论;
You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it and do more than just one. 你得对这个假设进行斟酌, 思考如何检验它, 还要重复多次。
Maybe you could go to a different part of the country or a different part of the year and see what the weather's like then. 也许你可以去这个国家的其他地方, 或者在一年的不同时间去, 看看那时的天气如何。
Another good idea is to talk to other people. 另一个好主意是和其他人聊聊。
They have different ideas, different perspectives , and they can help you. 他们有不同的想法,不同的视角, 他们可以帮助到你。
perspectives:n.[数]透视,远景,看法;构面;观点展示(perspective的复数形式);
This is what we call peer review . 这就是我们所称的同行评议。
peer review:n.各领域专家互相评阅;同行评审;同业监督小组;同业互查组织;
And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time, flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather. 事实上,这也会帮你省下 很大一笔钱和时间, 不必只为了看看天气两头飞。
coast-to-coast:adj.由大西洋岸到太平洋岸的;从球场的一端到另一端的;
Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job? 那么如果你的假设很好, 但不是很完美怎么办？
decent:adj.正派的;得体的;相当好的;
Well, that's OK, because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit and then go through this whole process again -- make predictions , test them -- and as you do that over and over again , you will hone this idea. 这不是大问题, 因为你可以对它进行一点修正, 然后再把整个流程走一遍—— 做预测,检验它—— 随着你一遍又一遍地重复, 你的假设便会被优化。
modify:vt.修改,修饰;更改;vi.修改; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); over and over again:adv.一再地;反复不断地; hone:v.磨练,训练;磨(刀);n.磨刀石;
And if it gets good enough, it may be accepted by the scientific community , at least provisionally , as a good explanation of what's going on, at least until a better idea or some contradictory evidence comes along. 如果它变得足够好了, 可能会被科学界采纳, 至少暂时性地, 作为一种对此自然现象的合理解释, 直到有更好的观点 或者出现了一些与之相矛盾的证据。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; provisionally:adv.临时地,暂时地; contradictory:adj.矛盾的;反对的;反驳的;抗辩的;n.对立物;矛盾因素;
Now, part of this process is admitting when you're wrong. 科学探究过程的一部分 就是承认你的错误。
And that can be really, really hard. 这真的非常、非常难。
Science has its strengths and weaknesses and they depend on this. 科学有其优势和不足, 而它依赖于错误。
One of the strengths of science is that it's done by people, and it's proven itself to do a really good job. 科学的优点之一是, 它是由人来完成的, 长久以来我们获得的 科学成就也毋庸置疑。
We understand the universe pretty well because of science. 因为科学,我们对宇宙 有非常不错的认知。
One of science's weaknesses is that it's done by people, and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things. 而科学的一个不足也恰恰是, 它是由人来完成的, 当我们调查研究的时候, 会带着很多包袱。
baggage:n.行李;[交]辎重(军队的); investigate:v.调查;研究;审查;
We are egotistical , we are stubborn , we're superstitious , we're tribal , we're humans -- these are all human traits and scientists are humans. 我们是任性主观的, 我们固执且迷信, 我们是群聚动物,我们是人类—— 这些都是人的特点,而科学家也是人。
egotistical:adj.任性的;自我本位的;傲慢自尊的; stubborn:adj.顽固的;顽强的;难处理的; superstitious:adj.迷信的;由迷信引起的; tribal:adj.部落的;部族的;n.(尤指南亚的)部落成员; traits:n.特性,特质,性格(trait的复数);
And so we have to be aware of that when we're studying science and when we're trying to develop our theses . 所以在研究和做出假设时,
theses:n.论文;命题(thesis的复数);
But part of this whole thing, part of this scientific process, part of the scientific method, is admitting when you're wrong. 但这整件事的一部分, 整个科学过程的一部分, 整个科学方法的一部分, 在于要承认自己在哪里犯了错。
I know, I've been there. 我曾经有过这样的经历。
Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope , and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data, and he said, "I think there may be a picture of a planet orbiting another star in this data." 许多年前,我在 哈勃太空望远镜项目工作, 有个一起共事的 科学家带着数据来找我, 他说:“我认为这个数据表明 可能有颗行星围绕另一颗恒星转。”
Telescope:n.望远镜;v.(使)叠套缩短;精简; orbiting:v.[航][天]轨道运行;轨道运动;转圈(orbit的ing形式);
We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet, so if this were true, then this would be the first one and we would be the ones who found it. 人们当时还没有拍到行星 绕其他恒星转的照片, 所以如果这个是真的, 就会是世界上的首次发现, 并且我们就是发现它的人。
That's a big deal . 这可了不得。
a big deal:na.要人;重要的事;
I was very excited, so I just dug right into this data. 我非常激动, 所以我就深入研究了这些数据。
I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not. 我花了很长的时间去搞清楚 这个东西是不是行星。
The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright, so trying to get the signal out of this data was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert -- it was really hard. 问题是行星很暗,恒星很亮, 所以试图从这些数据中获取信号 就像在重金属音乐会上听到耳语一样。 真是非常难。
faint:n.昏厥;v.昏厥;adj.昏眩;(光,声,味)微弱的;微小的;可能性不大的; whisper:v.耳语;低语;私语;小声说;n.耳语(声);低语(声);私语(声);轻柔的声音; heavy metal:重金属;
I tried everything I could, but after a month of working on this, 我想尽了一切办法, 但忙了一个月后,
I came to a realization ... couldn't do it. 我意识到…我做不到。
realization:n.实现;领悟;
I had to give up. 我不得不放弃。
And I had to tell this other scientist, "The data's too messy . 我得告诉其他科学家, “数据太混乱了,
messy:adj.肮脏的;凌乱的;不整洁的;
We can't say whether this is a planet or not." 我们无法确定这是不是行星。”
And that was hard. 承认这件事真的非常难。
Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble, and it showed that it wasn't a planet. 后来我们用哈勃望远镜做了后续观测, 结果发现它并不是一颗行星,
follow-up:adj.后续的;增补的;n.随访;跟进;后续行动; observations:n.观察,观察值;观察结果;(observation的复数形式);
It was a background star or galaxy , something like that. 只是个类似于背景恒星或星系的东西。
galaxy:n.银河;[天]星系;银河系;一群显赫的人;
Well, not to get too technical , but that sucked . 我不想说得太专业, 但那真是太糟糕了。
technical:adj.工艺的,科技的;技术上的;专门的; sucked:v.吸,吮;吸收;吞没;(suck的过去分词和过去式)
(Laughter) （笑声）
I was really unhappy about this. 我对此真的非常失落。
But that's part of it. 但就这是科学的一部分。
You have to say, "Look, you know, we can't do this with the data we have." 你不得不承认,“看吧, 我们无法用现有数据进行分析。”
And then I had to face up to the fact that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong. 随后我还得面对 后续的数据证明 我们是错的这个事实。
face up to:勇敢地面对;
Emotionally I was pretty unhappy. 情感上,我非常失落。
Emotionally:adv.感情上;情绪上;令人激动地;情绪冲动地;
But if a scientist is doing their job correctly, being wrong is not so bad because that means there's still more stuff out there -- more things to figure out. 但如果一个科学家正确地进行了研究, 犯了错误并不是坏事, 因为这意味着 在此之外还有更多事物—— 更多的东西等待着我们去探索。
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
Scientists don't love being wrong but we love puzzles , and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all. 科学家不喜欢犯错,但我们喜欢谜题, 而宇宙就是最大的迷题。
puzzles:智力游戏;谜题(puzzle的第三人称单数和复数)
Now having said that, if you have a piece and it doesn't fit no matter how you move it, jamming it in harder isn't going to help. 话虽如此, 话虽如此, 硬插进去并没有用。
There's going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea if you want to understand the bigger picture. 如果你想要理解更大的概念, 就得放弃目前所持有的观点。
The price of doing science is admitting when you're wrong, but the payoff is the best there is: knowledge and understanding. 科学研究的代价就是 当你犯错时要承认, 但这件事的回报是最好的: 知识和理解。
payoff:n.报酬;结果;发工资;结算;adj.支付的;决定性的;产生结果的;
And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science, but there's one I really like. 我可以给你上千个科学案例, 但其中有一个我真的很喜欢。
It has to do with astronomy , and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers literally for centuries. 这当然与天文学有关, 这个问题一直困扰了天文学家 好几个世纪。
astronomy:n.天文学; plaguing:n.瘟疫;灾祸;麻烦;讨厌的人;vt.折磨;使苦恼;使得灾祸; astronomers:天文学家; literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
When you look at the Sun, it seems special. 太阳看起来很特别。
It is the brightest object in the sky, but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries, we learned something very important about it. 它是天空中最亮的物体, 但是经过了几个世纪的天文学, 物理学,化学,热力学研究后, 我们了解到了一些 关于太阳的重要信息。
thermodynamics:n.热力学;
It's not that special. 它不再那么特别了。
It's a star just like millions of other stars. 它不过跟其他数百万个恒星一样。
But that raises an interesting question. 但这又引申出了一个有趣的问题。
If the Sun is a star and the Sun has planets, do these other stars have planets? 如果太阳是恒星, 并且太阳有行星, 其他恒星会有行星吗？
Well, like I said with my own failure in the "planet" I was looking for, finding them is super hard, but scientists tend to be pretty clever people and they used a lot of different techniques and started observing stars. 像我提到的在寻找“行星”上的失败经历, 找到它们真的非常难, 但科学家往往非常聪明, 他们会应用很多不同的技术 观察恒星。
techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数) observing:adj.观察的;注意的;观察力敏锐的;v.观察;遵守(observe的现在分词);
And over the decades they started finding some things that were pretty interesting, right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect . 几十年后, 他们开始发现一些真正有趣的东西, 就在他们能够探测到的 薄而粗糙的边缘。
detect:vt.察觉;发现;探测;
But time and again , it was shown to be wrong. 但事实一再证明,这是错的。
time and again:adv.屡次;常常;
That all changed in 1991. 事态在1991年才完全改变。
A couple of astronomers -- 几位天文学家——
Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me -- and Matthew Bailes, had a huge announcement. 亚历山大·莱恩—— 安德鲁·莱恩,对不起—— 和马修·贝尔斯, 发布了一项重大声明。
They had found a planet orbiting another star. 他们发现了一个绕着 另一颗恒星旋转的行星。
And not just any star, but a pulsar , and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded . 不是随便一颗恒星,而是脉冲星, 这是之前爆炸过的恒星的残骸。
pulsar:n.脉冲星; remnant:n.剩余;adj.剩余的; previously:adv.先前;以前; exploded:adj.分解的; v.爆炸; (explode的过去分词和过去式)
It's blasting out radiation . 它在爆炸时释放了大量辐射。
blasting:v.(用炸药)炸毁,把…炸成碎片;严厉批评;(blast的现在分词) radiation:n.辐射;放射线;放射疗法;
This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet, but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar, and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar. 这是宇宙中你最不可能 找到行星的地方。 但他们非常系统地 观察了这颗脉冲星, 当这颗行星绕脉冲星旋转时, 他们探测到了它的引力。
methodically:adv.有方法地;有系统地; detected:v.发现;查明;侦察出;(detect的过去分词和过去式) gravitational:adj.[力]重力的,[力]引力的; tug:n.拖船;拖曳;苦干;vi.用力拉;竞争;努力做;vt.用力拉;较量;用拖船拖; orbited:n.轨道;眼眶;势力范围;生活常规;vi.盘旋;绕轨道运行;vt.绕…轨道而行;
It looked really good. 这看起来真的很棒。
The first planet orbiting another star had been found ... 第一颗绕另一颗恒星 运行的行星被发现了…
except not so much. 只是没有那么多。
(Laughter) （笑声）
After they made the announcement, a bunch of other astronomers commented on it, and so they went back and looked at their data and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake. 在他们发布公告后, 其他一些天文学家对此发表了评论, 于是他们仔细地回去查看数据, 并意识到自己犯了 一个非常尴尬的错误。
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; embarrassing:adj.令人尴尬的; v.使尴尬; (embarrass的现在分词)
They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics of the Earth's motion around the Sun, which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar. 他们没有考虑到地球绕太阳的运动中 一些非常不明显的特征, 这些特征影响了他们测量这颗行星 绕脉冲星运行的方式。
subtle:adj.微妙的;精细的;敏感的;狡猾的;稀薄的; characteristics:n.特征;特点;品质;(characteristic的复数) measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式)
And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly, poof -- their planet disappeared . 结果,当他们做了正确的计算时, 糟糕——他们的行星消失了。
account for:对…负有责任;对…做出解释;说明…的原因;导致;(比例)占; poof:n.吹熄蜡烛的声音;int.哇(表示突然消失的)感叹词; disappeared:adj.消失的;消失了的;v.消失,失踪;(disappear的过去式和过去分词)
It wasn't real. 它其实并不存在的。
So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task. 安德鲁·莱恩有个非常艰巨的任务,
formidable:adj.强大的;可怕的;令人敬畏的;艰难的;
He had to admit this. 他得承认错误。
So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting, which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet, he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake and that the planet did not exist. 于是在1992年美国天文学会会议, 这个全世界最大的天文学会议上, 他站起来并宣布他犯了个错误, 那颗行星并不存在。
Astronomical:adj.天文的,天文学的;极大的; gatherings:n.聚会;集会;收集;采集;(gathering的复数)
And what happened next -- oh, I love this -- what happened next was wonderful. 接下来发生的是—— 太让我激动了—— 接下来的一幕很让人难忘。
He got an ovation . 他得到了热烈的掌声。
ovation:n.热烈欢迎;大喝采;
The astronomers weren't angry at him; they didn't want to chastise him. 天文学家们并没有对他表示愤怒; 他们不想谴责他,
chastise:vt.惩罚;严惩;责骂;
They praised him for his honesty and his integrity . 而是赞扬了他的诚实和正直。
integrity:n.完整;正直;诚实;廉正;
I love that! 我非常喜欢这一点！
Scientists are people. 科学家也是人。
(Laughter) （笑声）
And it gets better! 事情在变得越来越好！
(Laughter) （笑声）
Lyne steps off the podium . 莱恩从讲台上走下来后,
podium:n.乐队指挥台;矮墙;墩座墙;
The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan 下一位上台的人是亚历山大·沃尔兹森,
He takes the microphone and says, "Yeah, so Lyne's team didn't find a pulsar planet, but my team found not just one but two planets orbiting a different pulsar. 他拿起麦克风说道, “很遗憾,莱恩的团队没有发现脉冲星, 但我的团队发现了不止一个, 而是两颗行星围绕不同的脉冲星运行。
microphone:n.麦克风;传声器;话筒;
We knew about the problem that Lyne had, we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real." 我们知道莱恩存在的问题, 我们仔细核实了自己的结果, 我们的结果是真的。”
And it turns out he was right. 结果他是对的。
And in fact, a few months later, they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar and it was the first exoplanet system ever found -- what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets . 事实上,几个月后, 他们发现了第三颗绕着 这颗脉冲星的行星, 这是迄今为止发现的 第一个系外行星系统—— 我们称之为外星世界——系外行星。
exoplanets:外星行星;
That to me is just wonderful. 这对我来说太棒了。
At that point the floodgates were opened. 从那时起,就好像 泄洪阀门被打开了一样。
floodgates:n.水闸;水门;防潮水闸;制约(怒气);
In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun, and then we found another and another. 1995年,一个行星被发现 绕着类似太阳的恒星运行, 随后我们发现了一个又一个。
This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star. 这是一颗围绕恒星运行的行星图像。
We kept getting better at it. 我们做得越来越好。
We started finding them by the bucketload . 我们开始成批成批地找到它们,
bucketload:满满一桶;
We started finding thousands of them. 数量达到了几千个。
We built observatories specifically designed to look for them. 我们建造了专门用来 寻找它们的天文台。
observatories:n.天文台;气象台;瞭望台; specifically:adv.特别地;明确地;
And now we know of thousands of them. 利用这些天文台, 我们发现了数千颗行星。
We even know of planetary systems. 我们甚至了解了行星系统。
planetary:adj.行星的;
That is actual data, animated , showing four planets orbiting another star. 这是真实的数据,动画显示了 围绕另一颗恒星运行的四颗行星。
animated:adj.栩栩如生的; v.使具活力; (animate的过去分词和过去式)
This is incredible . Think about that. 真是难以置信,想想看吧。
incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
For all of human history, you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands -- nine -- eight? 纵观人类历史, 用两只手就可以算出 宇宙中所有的行星—— 9——8个？
Nine? Eight -- eight. 9个？8——8个。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Eh. 呃。
(Laughter) （笑声）
But now we know they're everywhere. 但现在我们知道它们到处都是。
Every star -- for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets. 每个恒星—— 每个你在天空看到的星星, 都可能拥有3,5,10个行星。
The sky is filled with them. 它们布满了天空。
We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy. 我们认为行星的数量可能 超过星系中的恒星。
outnumber:vt.数目超过;比…多;
This is a profound statement , and it was made because of science. 这是一个意义重大的结论, 这全要归功于科学。
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单;
And it wasn't made just because of science and the observatories and the data; it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories, who took the data, who made the mistakes and admitted them 得出这个结论不止要归功于 科学研究和数据观测; 能得出这个结论要归功于 建造了天文台的科学家, 他们得到了数据, 他们犯了错误并承认了错误,
and then let other scientists build on their mistakes so that they could do what they do and figure out where our place is in the universe. 然后让其他科学家 在他们的错误之上前进, 所以他们可以做到力所能及的事, 并去弄清楚我们在宇宙中的位置。
That is how you find the truth. 这就是你发现真相的方式。
Science is at its best when it dares to be human. 当科学敢于为人时, 它就处于最佳状态。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause and cheers) （鼓掌和欢呼）