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PeteAlcorn_2009-_pete_alcorn展望2200_
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I used to be a Malthusian. |
我曾经是马尔萨斯人口论的拥护者。 |
This was my mental model of the world: exploding population, small planet; it's going to lead to ugly things. |
这曾是这个世界在我脑海中的样子── 爆炸性的人口,渺小的星球, 一切都指向一个不祥的未来。 |
mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者; exploding:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);(explode的现在分词) ugly:adj.丑陋的;邪恶的;令人厌恶的;
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But I'm moving past Malthus, because I think that we just might be about 150 years from a kind of new enlightenment . |
但我现在已经抛弃了马尔萨斯, 因为我觉得再过150年,我们将迎来 一个新的启迪。 |
enlightenment:n.启迪;启蒙运动;教化;
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Here's why. |
原因就在于此: |
This is the U.N.'s population data, you may have seen, for the world. |
你可能看过这个,这是联合国发布的 世界人口的数据。 |
And the world's population expected to top out at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century. |
世界人口的预计上限希望是可以 稍低于100亿,并将在本世纪末叶达到。 |
And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline . |
在那之后,人口数量将开始下降。 |
decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
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So what then? |
不过那又怎样呢? |
Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth. |
大多数的经济模型都是建立在缺少和增长两个概念上, |
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; scarcity:n.不足;缺乏;
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So a lot of economists look at declining population and expect to see stagnation , maybe depression . |
因此很多经济学家 都将人口数量的缩小 看作是经济停滞甚至衰退的前兆。 |
declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词) stagnation:n.停滞;滞止; depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
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But a declining population is going to have at least two very beneficial economic effects. |
不过衰减的人口数量 至少会带来两项非常有益的经济效应。 |
beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的;
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One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land make investing in property a bad bet . |
其一,固定的土地总额加上逐渐减少的人口 将使得地产投资变成不佳的赌注。 |
investing:v.投资;投入(时间、精力等);(invest的现在分词) bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿;
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In the cities, a lot of the cost of property is actually wrapped up in its speculative value. |
在城市里,房地产的一大部分费用 事实上都被倾注于这些投机性的价值中。 |
wrapped:adj.极高兴的;十分满意的;v.用…包裹;用…缠绕;(wrap的过去分词和过去式) speculative:adj.投机的;推测的;思索性的;
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Take away land speculation , price of land drops. |
减少地产投机, 土地的价格便会降低。 |
speculation:n.投机;推测;思索;投机买卖;
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And that begins to lift a heavy burden off the world's poor. |
这也将移除世界上贫困人口 的一个巨大负担。 |
burden:n.负担;责任;船的载货量;v.使负担;烦扰;装货于;
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Number two: a declining population means scarce labor. |
其二,锐减的人口 意味着劳动力稀缺。 |
scarce:adv.勉强;刚;几乎不;简直不;adj.缺乏的;不足的;稀少的;
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Scarce labor drives wages . |
稀少的劳动力将带动工资的增长。 |
wages:n.[劳经]工资; v.开展(运动等)(wage的第三人称单数形式);
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As wages increase that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class . |
而随着工资的增长, 穷困人口和工薪阶层的负担将进一步减缓。 |
working class:adj.工人阶级的;劳动阶级的;
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Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death . |
当然了,我并不是在讨论那种黑死病带来的急剧人口下降。 |
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的; Black Death:n.黑死病(14世纪蔓延于欧亚的鼠疫);
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But look what happened in Europe after the plague : rising wages, land reform , technological innovation , birth of the middle class; and after that, forward-looking social movements like the Renaissance , and later the Enlightenment. |
不过看看在那场瘟疫发生后, 欧洲所发生的一切: 上升的工资, 土地的改革, 科技的创新, 还有中产阶级的诞生。 随之而来的,是极具前瞻意识的社会运动, 比如文艺复兴, 还有随后的启蒙运动。 |
plague:n.瘟疫;灾祸;麻烦;讨厌的人;vt.折磨;使苦恼;使得灾祸; land reform:n.土地改革; technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; forward-looking:adj.有远见的;向前看的; Renaissance:n.文艺复兴(欧洲14至17世纪);
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Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward , romanticizing the past. |
我们大部分的文化遗产都倾向于回望过去, 将过去涂上浪漫的色彩。 |
cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的; heritage:n.遗产;传统;继承物;继承权; backward:adj.向后的;反向的;发展迟缓的;adv.向后地;相反地; romanticizing:v.使浪漫化;使传奇化;使更加富有吸引力(romanticize的现在分词)
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All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden, and descend through a kind of profligate present to a very ugly future. |
西方所有的宗教都是始于伊甸园这个概念, 然后走过放荡的现今, 直向一个极其丑恶的未来。 |
notion:n.观念;信念;理解; descend:vi.下降;下去;下来;遗传;屈尊;vt.下去;沿…向下; profligate:adj.放荡的,不检点的;恣意挥霍的;n.放荡者;享乐者;
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So human history is viewed as sort of this downhill slide from the good old days. |
所以人类的历史才会被看作 是在走下坡路, 从过往美好的日子开始堕落。 |
downhill:adv.下坡;向下;每况愈下;adj.下坡的;容易的;n.下坡;滑降;
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But I think we're in for another change, about two generations after the top of that curve , once the effects of a declining population start to settle in. |
但我认为,我们即将迎来另一项改变── 在那个曲线到达顶端的两代人口之后, 一旦随人口数量的缩减而带来的效应 得以安顿落实。 |
curve:n.曲线;弯曲;曲面;弧线;v.(使)沿曲线移动;呈曲线形; settle:v.定居;结算;停留;确定;n.高背长椅(老式木家具,有扶手,座下多带柜);
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At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again, instead of the nasty , brutish past. |
到那时,我们将可以再次憧憬美好的未来, 而不是纠葛于那粗野可恶的过去。 |
nasty:adj.极差的:令人厌恶的:不友好的:n.令人不愉快的事物: brutish:adj.粗野的;残忍的;野兽般的;
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So why does this matter? |
不过,这关我们什么事呢? |
Why talk about social-economic movements that may be more than a century away? |
为什么要讨论一个多世纪以后的 社会经济运动? |
social-economic:社会经济;
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Because transitions are dangerous times. |
因为过渡期往往是最危险的时刻。 |
transitions:n.过渡,转变(transition的复数形式);转场效果;转换滤镜;
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When land owners start to lose money, and labor demands more pay, there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future. |
当土地拥有者开始赔钱, 劳动者要求更高的工钱时, 对未来的恐惧感将会变得强而有力。 |
Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions. |
对未来的恐惧将会导致鲁莽的抉择。 |
rash:adj.轻率的;鲁莽的;不顾后果的;n.[皮肤]皮疹;突然大量出现的事物;
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If we have a positive view about the future then we may be able to accelerate through that turn, instead of careening off a cliff . |
如果我们对未来充满希望, 我们就可以加速冲过那个转折点, 而不是坠入那个深渊。 |
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; accelerate:v.加快;加速;n.接受速成教育的学生; careening:n.倾斜试验;v.使倾斜(careen的ing形式); cliff:n.悬崖;绝壁;
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If we can make it through the next 150 years, |
如果我们能够很好地度过接下来的150年, |
I think that your great great grandchildren will forget all about Malthus. |
我相信你的曾曾祖孙们 将会彻底遗忘马尔萨斯。 |
And instead, they'll be planning for the future and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment. |
取而代之的,是对未来的悉心布置, 并将开启22世纪的启蒙运动。 |
Thank you. |
谢谢大家。 |
(Applause) |
(掌声) |