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PavanSukhdev_2011G-_自然资源也有价_
I'm here to talk to you about the economic invisibility of nature. 我今天来谈谈 自然界那些潜在的经济成本消耗。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; invisibility:n.看不见;看不见的东西;难看见;
The bad news is that mother nature 's back office isn't working yet, so those invoices don't get issued . 坏消息在于, 大自然尚未启动后台结算, 因此我们对这些经济成本消耗一无所知。
mother nature:n.大自然;自然界; back office:n.后勤部门; invoices:n.[会计]发票,单据(invoice的复数); v.给…开发票; issued:v.宣布;公布;发出;将…诉诸法律;(issue的过去分词和过去式)
But we need to do something about this problem. 但我们需要对这个问题采取行动。
I began my life as a markets professional and continued to take an interest, but most of my recent effort has been looking at the value of what comes to human beings from nature, and which doesn't get priced by the markets. 我的工作是研究消费市场, 现在仍对这个领域充满兴趣, 而我最近大部分时间 都致力于研究那些 由大自然带给人类 且其价值未被纳入市场范畴的资源。
professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员;
A project called TEEB was started in 2007, and it was launched by a group of environment ministers of the G8+5. 2007年,G8+5国家（G8的八个国家+5个新兴经济体国家）的环境部长们 发起了一个名为TEEB(The Economics of Ecosystem and Biodiversity生态系统与生物多样性经济学) 的项目。
launched:v.发射;发起;开展;开始;(launch的过去式和过去分词) ministers:n.部长,大臣; v.辅助; (minister的第三人称单数和复数)
And their basic inspiration was a stern review of Lord Stern. 激发他们发起这个项目的灵感 来源于Stern爵士（Nicholas Stern）一篇严肃的评论文章
stern:n.船尾;末端;adj.严厉的;坚定的; Lord:n.(英国)贵族,大人,大臣;v.使成贵族;作威作福;
They asked themselves a question: 他们提出了这样一个问题:
If economics could make such a convincing case for early action on climate change, well why can't the same be done for conservation ? 如果从经济学角度考虑问题 能够说服人们在气候变化的初期采取相应措施, 那么在谈论气候问题时引进经济学作为考虑因素能不能达到同样效果呢？
convincing:adj.令人信服的; v.使确信; (convince的现在分词) conservation:n.保存,保持;保护;
Why can't an equivalent case be made for nature? 同样的思维方式能否被运用到 思考人与自然的关系上？
equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
And the answer is: Yeah, it can. 答案是肯定的。
But it's not that straightforward . 然而,这一答案并非显而易见就能得到。
straightforward:adj.简单的;坦率的;明确的;径直的;adv.直截了当地;坦率地;
Biodiversity , the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas. 作为这个星球的生命构造,生物多样性并不是凭空存在的。
Biodiversity:n.生物多样性; fabric:n.织物;布料;(社会,机构等的)结构;
It exists in many layers , ecosystems , species and genes across many scales -- international, national, local, community -- and doing for nature what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy. 它存在于多个层面中: 各个规模的生态系统,物种,基因--- 无论是国际间的,民族间的,本地的,还是社区内的--- 而且像Stern爵士和他的团队那样去研究大自然 绝非易事。
layers:n.层;表层;层次;阶层;v.把…分层堆放;(layer的第三人称单数和复数) ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数); species:n.[生物]物种;种类; genes:n.基因;(gene的复数) scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数) community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
And yet, we began. 尽管有种种困难,我们还是开始着手于这个项目。
We began the project with an interim report, which quickly pulled together a lot of information that had been collected on the subject by many, many researchers. 我们从一篇中期报告着手, 里面汇集了 许多研究者搜集的 关于生态系统与生物多样性经济话题的信息。
interim:adj.临时的,暂时的;中间的;间歇的;n.过渡时期,中间时期;暂定;
And amongst our compiled results was the startling revelation that, in fact, we were losing natural capital -- the benefits that flow from nature to us. 我们从汇集的资料中 发现了这么一个让人惊讶的事实-- 自然资产正在逐渐流失 --而这资产正是大自然馈赠给我们的。
amongst:prep.在…之中;在…当中(等于among); compiled:adj.编译的;v.编辑(compile的过去分词); startling:adj.惊人的;让人震惊的;极鲜亮的;v.使惊吓;使吓一跳;(startle的现在分词) revelation:n.披露; adj.暴露的;
We were losing it at an extraordinary rate -- in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth of natural capital. 它以极快的速度流失-- 事实上,这是一笔价值两到四万亿美金的 自然资产。
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
This came out in 2008, which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown that we had lost financial capital of the order of two and a half trillion dollars. 这个现象发生在2008年, 大约在同一时期,银行业的危机显示 我们正在损失一笔价值 2.5万亿美金的金融资产。
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss. 因此,自然资产的流失大致和08年银行业危机造成的损失量处于同一级别。
comparable:adj.可比较的;比得上的;
We then have gone on since to present for [the] international community, for governments, for local governments and for business and for people, for you and me, 从那时起, 我们开始为国际性团体、 为政府、 为地方政府和商业机构、 以及为和你我一样的普通民众
a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year, which address the economic invisibility of nature and describe what can be done to solve it. 准备了一篇详尽的报告,并在去年的联合国会议上做了陈述, 报告中提出了自然界潜在的经济因素, 并陈述了一些解决方法。
slew:n.回转; vi.扭转; vt.使扭转; v.杀害(slay的过去式); describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
What is this about? 什么是“自然界潜在的经济因素”呢？
A picture that you're familiar with -- the Amazon rainforests . 举个大家都熟悉的例子-- 亚马孙雨林。
familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友; Amazon:亚马逊;古希腊女战士; rainforests:n.(热带)雨林;
It's a massive store of carbon , it's an amazing store of biodiversity, but what people don't really know is this also is a rain factory. 它是巨大的碳储藏室,是让人叹为观止的生物多样性储藏室, 但人们并不真正明白 它也是一个降雨工厂。
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的;
Because the northeastern trade winds , as they go over the Amazonas, effectively gather the water vapor . 因为东北信风 在越过亚马孙雨林时, 高效地聚集并带走了水蒸汽。
northeastern:adj.在东北的;东北方的;来自东北的; trade winds:n.信风; vapor:n.蒸汽;烟雾;vt.使…蒸发;使…汽化;vi.蒸发;吹牛;沮丧;
Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds, and eventually precipitates in the form of rain across the La Plata Basin . 每天大约有200亿吨水蒸汽 由东北信风吸收并带走, 最终在拉普拉塔河盆地上 形成降雨。
sucked:v.吸,吮;吸收;吞没;(suck的过去分词和过去式) eventually:adv.最后,终于; precipitates:n.[化学]沉淀物(precipitate的复数);v.使…沉淀(precipitate的单三形式); Basin:n.水池;流域;盆地;盆;
This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory, effectively feeds an agricultural economy of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth in Latin America . 这个雨水循环,这个降雨工厂, 高效地滋养了拉丁美洲的农业经济, 而这一降水过程的经济价值 高达2千4百亿美元。
rainfall:n.降雨;降雨量; agricultural:adj.农业的;农艺的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财; Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区);
But the question arises : Okay, so how much do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil pay for that vital input to that economy to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall? 问题来了:既然如此,那么 乌拉圭、巴拉圭、阿根廷 以及巴西的马托格罗索州 为这些对它们经济产生至关重要影响的降水 向生产降水的亚马孙地区诸州支付多少费用呢？
arises:v.出现;发生;站立; Argentina:n.阿根廷(位于拉丁美洲); Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); vital:adj.至关重要的;生死攸关的;有活力的; input:n.投入; v.把(数据等)输入计算机;
And the answer is zilch , exactly zero. 答案是:零, 一分钱也没付。
zilch:n.零,无;无价值之物;小人物;
That's the economic invisibility of nature. 这就是“自然界潜在的经济因素”。
That can't keep going on, because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful. 我们不能让这种现象持续下去, 因为经济方面的正向以及反向激励有着显著效果。
incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施;
Economics has become the currency of policy . 经济学已经成为政策的筹码。
currency:n.货币;通货; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
And unless we address this invisibility, we are going to get the results that we are seeing, which is a gradual degradation and loss of this valuable natural asset . 除非我们提出 潜在的经济成本这一议题, 否则我们将得到我们现在所看到的后果-- 宝贵自然资产的 逐渐退化和消失。
gradual:adj.逐渐的;平缓的;n.弥撒升阶圣歌集; degradation:n.退化;降格,降级;堕落; valuable:adj.有价值的;贵重的;可估价的;n.贵重物品; asset:n.资产;优点;有用的东西;有利条件;财产;有价值的人或物;
It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests. 这不仅仅关于亚马孙地区,还关乎雨林本身。
No matter what level you look at, whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level, we see the same problem again and again . 无论你从哪个层面看, 从生态系统层面也好、从物种层面、抑或从基因层面看也罢, 同样的问题一再显现。
No matter what:不管什么…; genetic:adj.基因的;遗传学的; again and again:adv.再三地,反复地;
So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests at an ecosystem level. 因此,降水循环和雨林中的水份保持 是位于整个生态系统层面的问题。
regulation:n.规则;法规;控制;规章制度;adj.规定的;必须穿戴的;必须使用的;
At the species level, it's been estimated that insect-based pollination , bees pollinating fruit and so on, is something like 190 billion dollars-worth. 从物种层面来说, 昆虫的授粉过程, 例如蜜蜂给水果授粉等, 据估计大约含有1.9千亿美元的经济价值。
estimated:adj.估计的;预计的;估算的; pollination:n.[农学]授粉(作用); pollinating:vt.对...授粉;
That's something like eight percent of the total agricultural output globally. 这相当于全球农业总产量 的8%左右。
output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出;
It completely passes below the radar screen. 这一过程完全未被有意识地侦测到。
radar:n.雷达;
But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice? 蜜蜂什么时候为这一过程向你要过钱呢？
Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level, 60 percent of medicines were prospected , were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef . 还有,如果从基因层面来看, 60%的药物都是最早在雨林或是暗礁处 作为分子而被勘查、发现的。
prospected:n.前途;预期;景色;vi.勘探,找矿;vt.勘探,勘察; molecules:n.[化学]分子,微粒;[化学]摩尔(molecule的复数); reef:礁,礁脉
Once again, most of that doesn't get paid. 同样地,人类没有为这些自然资源付过一分钱。
And that brings me to another aspect of this, which is, to whom should this get paid? 因此我开始从另一角度看这个话题: 我们该向谁付这笔钱？
aspect:n.方面;层面;外观;方位;
That genetic material probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone, to a local community of poor people who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule, which then became the medicine. 这些基因方面的材料 也许应该属于（如果它们能够属于某些人的话） 当地社区的穷人-- 他们用自己的知识帮助研究人员找到这些 最终成为药物的分子。
They were the ones that didn't get paid. 他们从未为此得到过报酬。
And if you look at the species level, you saw about fish. 如果从物种层面看, 鱼类是个很好的例子。
Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor, the artisanal fisher folk and those who fish for their own livelihoods , to feed their families. 如今,对于海洋渔场的消耗已经大到 对于那些穷人、 深谙捕鱼技艺并把它作为一门手艺的人、 以及那些为了养活家人而捕鱼的人 产生了严重影响。
depletion:n.消耗;损耗;放血; fisheries:n.渔业;渔场(fishery的复数);捕鱼术;渔业公司; significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物; artisanal:手工艺性的; livelihoods:n.赚钱謀生的手段;生计;(livelihood的复数)
Something like a billion people depend on fish, the quantity of fish in the oceans. 大约十亿人口的生活依赖于鱼类, 依赖于海洋中鱼的数量。
quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额;
A billion people depend on fish for their main source for animal protein . 十亿人把鱼作为他们 摄入动物蛋白的主要来源。
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; protein:n.蛋白质;
And at this rate at which we are losing fish, it is a human problem of enormous dimensions , a health problem of a kind we haven't seen before. 鱼类的数量如此迅速的减少, 构成了一个多维度的问题, 一个我们从未遇见过的 健康问题。
enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的; dimensions:n.规模,大小;
And finally , at the ecosystem level, whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests, or whether it is the ability of poor farmers to go out and gather leaf litter for their cattle and goats, or whether it's the ability of their wives to go and collect fuel wood from the forest, it is actually the poor who depend most on these ecosystem services. 最后,从生态系统层面看, 无论是从森林提供的防洪抗旱功能来说, 从并不富裕的农民们 到森林中为他们的牛羊 搜集枯树叶作为饲料来说, 还是从农妇们外出到森林中 搜集用于烤火的木头来说, 穷人们实际上更加依赖于 生态系统所提供的资源。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; prevention:n.预防;阻止;妨碍; drought:n.干旱;缺乏; provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式)
We did estimates in our study that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia , even though ecosystem services -- these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free -- they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP -- two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent -- 我们在研究中做了如下估计: 对于像巴西、印度、印尼这样的国家, 即使生态系统提供了充足资源-- 这些是人类可免费从大自然获取的-- 从国内生产总值（GDP）来看,也没占多大比例-- 大约2%,4%,8%,10%,15%左右--
estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数) Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国); humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成;
but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor, the answers are more like 45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent. 但在这些国家中,如果我们来看自然资源对于穷人来说占生产总值的比例, 那么,这个答案更加可能是 45%,75%,90%。
That's the difference. 这就是差距所在。
Because these are important benefits for the poor. 因为对于穷人来说,自然资源是一项很重要的福利。
And you can't really have a proper model for development if at the same time you're destroying or allowing the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset, which is your development asset, that is ecological infrastructure . 想要建立一个恰当的发展模式, 如果与此同时破坏或者 任由最重要的发展资本-- 生态基础设施--退化, 那么实现发展只是空谈。
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; ecological:adj.生态的,生态学的; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
How bad can things get? 这种情况能变得多糟糕呢？
Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance . 这里有幅被称为“平均物种充足性”的图。
abundance:n.丰度;丰富;大量;富足;
It's basically a measure of how many tigers, toads , ticks or whatever on average of biomass of various species are around. 它用来衡量周围环境中 单位面积内平均来说 有多少老虎、蟾蜍、壁虱或是其他不同物种。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; toads:n.[脊椎]蟾蜍(toad的复数形式); biomass:n.(单位面积或体积内的)[生态]生物量;
The green represents the percentage. 绿色代表的是百分比。
represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数)
If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent. 如果你开始的时候处于绿色区域,那么生物覆盖率大约为80%到100%。
If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent. 如果黄色,那么是40%到60%。
And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak , the pre-industrial era , 1750. 这些百分比是相对于最初状态来说的, 即工业革命前期,1750年。
percentages:n.[数]百分率,百分比;命中率(percentage的复数); versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗; original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的; so to speak:可以说;打个譬喻说; pre-industrial:adj.工业化以前的; era:n.新时期;纪元;年代;新时代;
Now I'm going to show you how business as usual will affect this. 现在,我将向你们展示 寻常的商业化进程如何影响平均物种充足性。
business as usual:na.照常营业;
And just watch the change in colors in India, China, Europe, sub-Saharan Africa as we move on and consume global biomass at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us. 看看图上的颜色 在印度、中国、欧洲、 以及撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲的变化, 如果全球单位面积内生物数量继续以现在的速率减少, 那么地球将无法维持人类的生存。
sub-Saharan:撒哈拉以南地区; consume:v.消耗;吃;毁灭;烧毁; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; sustain:v.支持;支撑;遭受;证实;
See that again. 回到这张图。
The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news -- is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert, like the tundra and like the Sahara. 坏消息是,唯一仍呈绿色的地区 事实上是戈壁区、 苔原冻土地带、撒哈拉沙漠之类的地方。
tundra:n.[生态]苔原;[地理]冻原;冻土地带;
But that doesn't help because there were very few species and volume of biomass there in the first place . 这些无济于事,因为生活在这些地方的物种本来就极少, 单位面积生物数量很小。
volume:n.体积;容积;音量;响度;一册;合订本 in the first place:首先;起初;
This is the challenge. 这就是挑战所在。
The reason this is happening boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem, which is our inability to perceive the difference between public benefits and private profits . 在我看来, 这种现象发生的原因可以归结为一个最基本的问题, 就是我们未能理解 公共利益 和个人利益之间的差别。
inability:n.无能力;无才能; perceive:v.注意到;意识到;将…理解为;认为; profits:n.利润; v.获益; (profit的第三人称单数和复数)
We tend to constantly ignore public wealth simply because it is in the common wealth, it's common goods. 我们往往倾向于无视公共财富, 仅仅因为它是共同财富的一部分, 是一项共同商品。
constantly:adv.不断地;时常地; ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
And here's an example from Thailand where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much -- it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured -- compared to its value as a shrimp farm, which is more like $9,600, 举一个发生在泰国的例子, 我们发现,由于红树林的价值并不算高-- 据估计在它们9年的生命期内大约价值600美元-- 相对于养虾场来说 它的价值大约9600美元。
Thailand:n.泰国(东南亚国家名); mangrove:n.红树林; measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式) compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) shrimp:n.虾;小虾;矮小的人;vi.捕虾;adj.有虾的;虾制的;
there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves and convert them to shrimp farms. 红树林正渐渐被砍伐 改建成养虾场。
trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向; deplete:vt.耗尽,用尽;使衰竭,使空虚; mangroves:n.[林]红树林(mangrove的复数);红树属植物; convert:v.转换; n.改变宗教(或信仰、观点)的人;
But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are, almost 8,000 of those dollars are, in fact, subsidies . 当然,如果仔细看看这些利润究竟来自哪里, 你会看到其中大约8000美元 实际上来自政府补贴。
subsidies:n.补贴;补助金;津贴;(subsidy的复数)
So you compare the two sides of the coin and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600. 因此,这两种选择之间的经济价值差异 大约在1200到600美元之间。
That's not that hard. 这看起来并不算糟。
But on the other hand , if you start measuring, how much would it actually cost to restore the land of the shrimp farm back to productive use? 但从另一方面去衡量, 我们究竟要花多少钱 才能让被养虾场占用的土地 恢复其生产作用？
on the other hand:另一方面; restore:v.恢复;修复;恢复(某种情况或感受);使复原; productive:adj.能生产的;生产的,生产性的;多产的;富有成效的;
Once salt deposition and chemical deposition has had its effects, that answer is more like $12,000 of cost. 一旦土地被盐碱化或是形成化学淀积, 恢复其生产作用的成本 很可能高达1.2万美元。
deposition:n.沉积(物);沉淀(物);罢免;证人陈述; chemical:n.化学制品,化学药品;adj.化学的;
And if you see the benefits of the mangrove in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries , that provide fish for the poor, that answer is more like $11,000. 如果考虑红树林 在暴雨、暴风发生时对土地提供的保护, 以及向穷人提供赖以生存的鱼群的 养鱼场、鱼苗圃, 那么其潜在价值很可能达到1.1万美元。
cyclone:n.旋风;[气象]气旋;飓风; nurseries:n.托儿所(nursery的复数);
So now look at the different lens . 现在,我们换个角度看问题。
lens:n.透镜,镜头;晶状体;隐形眼镜;汽车的灯玻璃;v.给…摄影;
If you look at the lens of public wealth as against the lens of private profits, you get a completely different answer, which is clearly conservation makes more sense, and not destruction . 如果从公共财富 而不是个人利益的角度看, 会得到完全不同的结论-- 我们应该保护红树林, 而不是毁坏它。
destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁;
So is this just a story from South Thailand? 这种情况仅仅发生在泰国南部吗？
Sorry, this is a global story. 遗憾的是,全球都存在这个现象。
And here's what the same calculation looks like, which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years -- by a group called TRUCOST. 这里展示的最近是用类似计算方法得到的结果-- “最近”是指过去十年-- 由一个叫TRUCOST的组织（专注于向公司提供其运营过程中可能对环境产生影响的数据）提供。
recently:adv.最近;新近;
And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations , what are the externalities ? 他们对排名前3000的公司进行了计算 --公司运营的外部效应是什么？
corporations:n.[贸易]公司,[经]企业(corporation的复数形式); externalities:n.外部性;外部效应;
In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual? 换句话说,公司运营的实际成本是多少？
This is not illegal stuff , this is basically business as usual, which causes climate-changing emissions , which have an economic cost. 公司日常运营范畴之内的某些举动虽然并不违法, 但那些影响气候变化的排放物需被纳入经济成本。
illegal:adj.不合法的;非法的;n.非法移民;非法劳工; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数)
It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost, health cost and so on. 公司运营过程中产生了污染物,这些需被纳入经济成本、 健康成本等的考虑范围。
pollutants:n.[环境]污染物(pollutant的复数);
Use of freshwater . 拿淡水的应用来举例。
freshwater:adj.淡水的;无经验的;n.淡水;内河;湖水;
If you drill water to make coke near a village farm, that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community. 如果你在一个农庄附近取水用来生产可乐, 这的确并不违法,但会对当地社区产生影响。
Can we stop this, and how? 我们能否阻止这一行为？如何去阻止？
I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital. 我认为首先要明确的一点是,需要认识到自然资产的存在。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;
Basically the stuff of life is natural capital, and we need to recognize and build that into our systems. 自然资产是指那些有生命的东西, 我们需要承认它们的存在,并将其纳入经济体系中。
When we measure GDP as a measure of economic performance at the national level, we don't include our biggest asset at the country level. 我们在衡量作为全国经济表现指标的 国内生产总值时, 并未包含这个从国家层面来说最大的资产。
performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演;
When we measure corporate performances , we don't include our impacts on nature and what our business costs society. 我们衡量公司表现时, 也未包括对于自然的影响 以及对于社会的影响。
corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; performances:n.演出;[法]履行(performance的复数形式); impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用;
That has to stop. 这种衡量方法必须被淘汰。
In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase . 事实上,这一观点激发了我此阶段的兴趣所在。
inspired:adj.受到启发的; v.鼓舞; (inspire的过去分词和过去式) phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做;
I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project. 我很久之前发起了一个名为“绿色会计”的项目。
That was in the early 2000s when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth as the means forward -- looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent and wondering, why can we do the same? 21世纪初期, 随着一系列进程的推进, 印度试图努力提高GDP增长-- 看着中国每年8%,9%,10%的GDP稳步增速, 想着“我们怎样也能实现这么迅速地增长呢？”
gung-ho:adj.同心协力的;雄心壮志的;强烈的;起劲的,热心的; stellar:adj.星的;星球的;主要的;一流的;
And a few friends of mine and I decided this doesn't make sense . 我和我的一些朋友们认为 这一增长速度不合乎情理。
make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理;
This is going to create more cost to society and more losses. 这将会为社会发展增加更多成本、带来更大损失。
So we decided to do a massive set of calculations and started producing green accounts for India and its states. 因此我们决定进行大量关于自然资产的计算, 并开始为印度及其各州维护绿色账户。
That's how my interests began and went to the TEEB project. 我的兴趣由此引发, 随之开展了TEEB（生态系统与生物多样性经济学）项目。
Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun. 其中一项任务就是开展国家层面关于自然经济成本的计算。
And the World Bank has acknowledged this and they've started a project called WAVES -- 世界银行认识到这个的重要性, 并开展了一个称为WAVES的项目,
World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构);
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services. 即“财富会计与生态系统评估”。
Valuation:n.评价,估价;计算;
But calculating this at the next level, that means at the business sector level, is important. 在下一个层面, 即在各商业部门进行此项计算,至关重要。
sector:n.部门;扇形,扇区;象限仪;函数尺;vt.把…分成扇形;
And actually we've done this with the TEEB project. 我们通过TEEB项目实现了这点。
We've done this for a very difficult case, which was for deforestation in China. 我们把这种计算应用到一个相当复杂的案例上-- 中国的森林退减。
deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐;
This is important, because in China in 1997, the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months causing severe loss of agriculture output and pain and loss to society. 这个案例举足轻重,因为在1997年, 中国的黄河曾一度干涸九个月之久, 导致农业产出严重减少, 也给社会带来了损失。
severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
Just a year later the Yangtze flooded, causing something like 5,500 deaths. 仅仅一年之后,长江爆发洪涝, 导致约5500人死亡。
So clearly there was a problem with deforestation. 显然,森林减退带来了一定问题。
It was associated largely with the construction industry. 这和建筑行业（对木材的需求）紧密相关。
associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; construction:n.建设;建筑物;解释;造句;
And the Chinese government responded sensibly and placed a ban on felling. 中国政府作出了理智回应, 颁布条令禁止乱砍滥伐。
responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词) sensibly:adv.明显地;容易感知地;聪明地;
A retrospective on 40 years shows that if we had accounted for these costs -- the cost of loss of topsoil , the cost of loss of waterways , the lost productivity , the loss to local communities as a result of all these factors , desertification and so on -- those costs are almost twice as much as the market price of timber . 回顾过去40年, 我们可以看到,如果算上所有成本代价-- 包括表层土壤的流失、 河道的干涸, 以及由所有这些因素造成的 生产力减退、对当地社区的损害、 荒漠化等等问题-- 这些代价几乎是砍伐森林所得木材 市场价格的两倍。
retrospective:adj.回顾的;怀旧的;可追溯的;n.回顾展; topsoil:n.表层土;上层土; waterways:n.水路;水道(waterway的复数);排水沟; productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力; communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数) as a result:结果; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; desertification:n.(土壤)荒漠化;沙漠化(等于desertization); market price:n.市价;市场价;时价; timber:n.木材;木料;
So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace ought to have been three-times what it was had it reflected the true pain and the costs to the society within China. 因此,北京市面上木材的价格 如果反映其对中国社会造成的 实际影响及其实际成本, 应该是目前价格的三倍。
marketplace:n.市场;集市; three-times:adj.三次的; reflected:adj.反射的;得自他人的;v.反射;思考;(reflect的过去式和过去分词)
Of course, after the event one can be wise. 当然,我们可以从这个项目中汲取经验。
The way to do this is to do it on a company basis, to take leadership forward, and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost, and to disclose these answers. 方法是在公司层面开展关于潜在经济成本的计算, 把它作为领导决策的一部分, 尽可能多地囊括产生此类成本的部门, 并公布计算结果。
sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形; disclose:vt.公开;揭露;
Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse, is it Unilever or is it P&G when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?" 有人曾问我:“论对于印尼雨林的影响而言, 联合利华和宝洁两家公司 谁造成的正面或者负面影响更大？”
And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies, good though they are and professional though they are, do not calculate or disclose their externalities. 我无法做出回答,因为这两家公司 尽管它们都很优秀、都很专业 但都未计算或者公布它们对于环境的外部影响。
But if we look at companies like PUMA -- 我们来看看类似于彪马PUMA之类的公司--
PUMA:n.[脊椎]美洲狮;
Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman, once challenged me at a function, saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it. 他们的CEO兼主席Jochen Zeitz, 曾向我发起过关于计算公司潜在经济成本的挑战, 并说他会在我完成项目之前,提前实现它。
implement:v.实施;执行;贯彻;使生效;n.工具;
Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it. 我想我们大约同时完成,但关键在于他确实实施了这个项目。
He's basically worked the cost to PUMA. 基本上完成了彪马在运营过程中潜在经济成本的计算。
PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover , 300 million dollars of profits, 200 million dollars after tax, 94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business. 彪马的营业额为27亿美元, 拥有3亿美元利润, 税后利润为2亿美元, 9400万为外部效应,这是公司运营成本的一部分。
turnover:n.翻覆;[贸易]营业额;流通量;半圆卷饼;失误;adj.翻过来的;可翻转的;
Now that's not a happy situation for them, but they have the confidence and the courage to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring. 对于他们来说,这并不是一个可喜的处境, 但他们有信心、有勇气 面对这一情形并说:“我们就是这么衡量公司效益的。
confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的;
We are measuring it because we know that you cannot manage what you do not measure." 我们衡量这些潜在成本是因为我们知道 人们无法掌控自己不去衡量的事物。”
That's an example, I think, for us to look at and for us to draw comfort from. 我想,这可以作为一个用来参照 并从中得到慰藉的例子。
If more companies did this, and if more sectors engaged this as sectors, you could have analysts , business analysts , and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs actually look and compare the social performance of companies. 如果更多的公司参与到这个项目中, 如果更多部门把它纳入考虑范围, 你就可以请分析师、商业分析师 以及像我们一样的职业人员、消费者、NGO共同参与, 来研究与比较各公司的社会表现。
engaged:adj.已订婚的; v.吸引住; (engage的过去分词和过去式) analysts:n.分析师;分析家;[分化]分析员(analyst的复数); consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out. 目前我们还无法实践这一目标,但我认为如何去实施的道路已经被指明了。
This can be done. 这个想法是可以实现的。
And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K. 很高兴,英国的特许会计师协会
delighted:adj.高兴的; v.使高兴; (delight的过去分词和过去式) Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院; Chartered:adj.受特许的;v.特许建立(charter的过去分词); Accountants:n.会计;会计师;(accountant的复数)
has already set up a coalition to do this, an international coalition. 已经成立了一个致力于此的联盟 -- 一个国际性联盟。
coalition:n.联合;结合,合并;
The other favorite, if you like, solution for me is the creation of green carbon markets. 另外一个我最喜欢的解决方案,不知道你们是否喜欢, 是绿碳市场的成立。
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物;
And by the way , these are my favorites -- externalities calculation and green carbon markets. 顺便提一句,这是我最喜欢的两个创意-- 计算对于环境的外部影响,以及绿碳市场。
by the way:顺便说一下;
TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions including protected area evaluation and payments for ecosystem services and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites. TEEB有许多独立的解决方案 --包括对受保护地区的评估、 为生态系统提供的服务付费、 以及生态证书等你能想到的方案,但以上提到的两个最受欢迎。
evaluation:n.评价;[审计]评估;估价;求值; payments:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答;(payment的复数)
What's green carbon? 何谓“绿碳排放”？
Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace. 现今我们拥有的基本是一个“褐碳市场”。
It's about energy emissions. 这个概念和能源排放有关。
The European Union ETS is the main marketplace. 欧盟排放贸易体系（ European Union Emissions Trading Scheme）是主要市场。
European Union:n.欧洲联盟;
It's not doing too well. We've over-issued. 这一体系运行得并不好,排放量已超额。
A bit like inflation : you over-issue currency, you get what you see, declining prices. 有点像通货膨胀:如果超额发行货币, 后果就是价格下跌。
inflation:n.膨胀;通货膨胀;夸张;自命不凡; declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词)
But that's all about energy and industry. 但这里提到的情形关乎能源与工业。
But what we're missing is also some other emissions like black carbon, that is soot . 同样超标的还有其他排放物, 比如说“黑碳排放”,也就是煤烟排放。
soot:n.煤烟,烟灰;vt.用煤烟熏黑;以煤烟弄脏;
What we're also missing is blue carbon, which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon -- more than 55 percent. “蓝碳排放”也已超标, 顺便说,它的碳含量最大-- 超过碳排放总量的55%。
Thankfully , the flux , in other words, the flow of emissions from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa , is more or less balanced. 好在这些排放物 从海洋流向空气再回流海洋的过程 或多或少还算平衡。
Thankfully:adv.感谢地;感激地; flux:n.[流][机]流量;变迁;不稳定;流出;vt.使熔融;用焊剂处理;vi.熔化;流出; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; vice versa:反之亦然; more or less:或多或少;
In fact, what's being absorbed is something like 25 percent of our emissions, which then leads to acidification or lower alkalinity in oceans. 事实上,我们的排放物中 有大约25%在这一过程中被吸收, 随而导致海水的酸化 或是海水碱性的降低。
absorbed:adj.被…吸引住; v.吸收(液体、气体等); (absorb的过去分词和过去式) acidification:n.[化学]酸化;成酸性;使…发酸; alkalinity:n.碱度;碱性;
More of that in a minute. 再补充一句。
And finally, there's deforestation, and there's emission of methane from agriculture. 此外,还有森林的减退、 以及农业活动中 释放出的甲烷。
methane:n.[有化]甲烷;[能源]沼气;
Green carbon, which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions, and blue carbon together comprise 25 percent of our emissions. “绿碳排放” --即森林减退和农业排放-- 与“蓝碳排放” 加起来占了总碳排放量的25%。
comprise:vt.包含;由…组成;
We have the means already in our hands, through a structure, through a mechanism , called REDD Plus -- a scheme for the reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. 我们手头已经有了解决方法, 即通过“REDD Plus（Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation由森林砍伐和森林退化引起的减少排放）”这个体系及其机制-- 来制定针对减少排放的计划, 用以解决由乱砍滥伐和森林退化引起的问题。
mechanism:n.机制;原理,途径;进程;机械装置;技巧; REDD:vt.使…整洁;vi.整理; scheme:n.计划;方案;体系;体制;阴谋;v.密谋;图谋;想;认为;
And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each towards Indonesia and Brazil to implement this Red Plus scheme. 挪威已经向印尼和巴西 各注资十亿美元 用来实施“REDD Plus”计划。
contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词)
So we actually have some movement forward. 我们确实在向好的方面进展。
But the thing is to do a lot more of that. 但需要做的远比这些多。
Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything? 这个方法能否解决所关心的问题？经济学能否用来解决所有难题？
Well I'm afraid not. 恐怕不行。
There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs . 这个问题有一部分涉及到海洋以及珊瑚礁。
coral:n.珊瑚;珊瑚虫;adj.珊瑚的;珊瑚色的; reefs:n.礁石(reef的复数形式); v.收帆;
As you can see , they cut across the entire globe all the way from Micronesia across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar and to the West of the Caribbean . 可以看到, 它们分割了整个地球, 从密克罗尼西亚岛群开始, 横穿印尼、马来西亚、印度、马达加斯加, 直达加勒比海西侧。
As you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的; Micronesia:n.密克罗尼西亚(西太平洋岛群); Caribbean:adj.加勒比海的;加勒比人的;加勒比语的;n.加勒比海;
These red dots, these red areas, basically provide the food and livelihood for more than half a billion people. 这些红点、这些红色区域, 为5亿多人口 提供了食物和生存手段。
So that's almost an eighth of society. 这比例几乎占了整个社会的八分之一。
And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost -- and scientists tell us that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million 坏消息在于,这些珊瑚礁正渐渐消失-- 据科学家说, 若大气中二氧化碳含量超过350ppm（即每百万分空气中含350分二氧化碳）
carbon dioxide:二氧化碳;
is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs -- we are not only risking the extinction of the entire coral species, the warm water corals , we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans, but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods of more than 500 million people who live in the developing world in poor countries. 就会严重危及珊瑚礁的生存-- 我们不仅仅是拿 整个暖水海洋珊瑚种群的生存在冒险, 不仅仅是拿海洋中四分之一鱼类的生存在冒险, 更是拿生活在贫穷发展中国家 超过5亿人的生命以及他们的生活 在冒险。
survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物; extinction:n.绝种; corals:n.[无脊椎]珊瑚(coral的复数);
So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations , what we have done is we've made an ethical choice. 因此,在选择把450ppm作为大气中二氧化碳含量的警戒线 以及协商把两度作为气候变化指标的过程中, 我们的所作所为是一个道德方面的选择。
negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商; ethical:adj.伦理的;道德的;凭处方出售的;n.处方药;
We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society to not have coral reefs. 我们实际上从某种意义上说, 在道义上选择了放弃珊瑚礁。
Well what I will say to you in parting is that we may have done that. 在结束演讲之前,我要说的是, 我们可能已经做出了造成珊瑚礁灭绝的举动。
Let's think about it and what it means, but please, let's not do more of that. 让我们思考一下这意味着什么, 但请不要再继续这些举动了。
Because mother nature only has that much in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital. 大自然母亲只有这么多的 生态资源和自然资产。
I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices. 我们承受不起代价如此之大的这样道德选择。
afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）