ParagKhanna.2009G-.描绘各国的未来.；TED演讲稿

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ParagKhanna_2009G-_描绘各国的未来_
Do we live in a borderless world?	我们生活在一个无国界的世界吗？
borderless:adj.无边界的;没有边际;
Before you answer that have a look at this map.	在您回答这个问题前,请看一下这张地图。
have a look at:看一看,看一眼;
Contemporary political map shows that we have over 200 countries in the world today.	当代政治地图显示世界上现有超过200个国家。
Contemporary:n.同时代的人;同时期的东西;adj.当代的;同时代的;属于同一时期的;
That's probably more than at any time in centuries.	这或许是多个世纪以来国家数目最多的时期。
Now many of you will object.	或许很多人会表示反对。
For you this would be a more appropriate map.	那么这可能是一张更能说服你的地图。
appropriate:adj.适当的;恰当的;v.占用,拨出;
You could call it TEDistan.	你可以把它称作TED之图。
In TEDistan there are no borders, just connected spaces and unconnected spaces.	在TED之图上,没有任何国界, 只存在相互连接的区域和毫不相连的区域。
unconnected:adj.不连接的;无关联的;
Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots on this screen, of the many more, that represent 90 percent of the world economy .	大部分在座的或许都生活在荧幕中图示的40个点中的某个点上, 这些只是许多个点中的一部分, 而却代表了世界经济的90%。
reside:vi.住,居住;属于; represent:v.代表;表现;描绘;回忆;再赠送; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population that will never leave the place in which they were born.	而我们要知道, 世界人口中的90% 永远都不会离开自己的出生地。
For them, nations, countries, boundaries , borders still matter a great deal, and often violently .	对他们来说,民族、国家、分界线和国界仍然关系重大, 甚至是至关重要。
boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数) violently:adv.猛烈地,激烈地;极端地;
Now here at TED we're solving some of the great riddles of science and mysteries of the universe.	而在TED,我们试图解开科学中和宇宙中一些伟大的谜团。
riddles:n.谜语; v.猜谜;
Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved: our basic political geography .	而在这里我们有一个根本问题有待解决: 我们基本的政治地理学。
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; political geography:n.政治地理学;
How do we distribute ourselves around the world?	我们在地球上是如何分布的？
distribute:v.分发;分配;分销;分散;
Now this is important because border conflicts justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex .	这个问题很重要,因为边界冲突让世界上如此之多的军工联合体的存在合理化。
conflicts:n.冲突; v.抵触; justify:v.证明合法;整理版面;替…辩护; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
Border conflicts can derail so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here.	边界冲突能让我们期盼的许多进展偏离轨道。
derail:v.(火车)使出轨;出轨;n.脱轨;[铁路]脱轨器;
So I think we need a deeper understanding of how people, money, power, religion, culture, technology interact to change the map of the world.	因此,我认为我们需要更加深刻的思考, 人口、财富、权力、宗教、文化、科技是如何相互作用,从而改变世界地图的面貌的。
technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; interact:v.互相影响;互相作用;n.幕间剧;幕间休息;
And we can try to anticipate those changes, and shape them in a more constructive direction.	我们也可以试着预测这些改变, 将他们导引至一个更加具有建设性的方向。
anticipate:v.预期,期望;占先,抢先;提前使用; constructive:adj.建设性的;推定的;构造上的;有助益的;
So we're going to look at some maps of the past, the present and some maps you haven't seen in order to get a sense of where things are going.	我们来看一下一些过去的和现在的地图, 还有一些你们从未见过的地图, 来初步感受一下世界的走向。
Let's start with the world of 1945.	我们首先来看一下1945年的地图。
1945 there were just 100 countries in the world.	1945年的时候,世界上正好有100个国家。
After World War II Europe was devastated , but still held large overseas colonies:	二次世界大战后,欧洲元气大伤, 但是仍然占有大量的海外殖民地:
devastated:adj.不安的,混乱的,震惊的; v.彻底破坏; (devastate的过去分词和过去式) overseas:adv.在海外,海外;adj.海外的,国外的;
French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth.	法属西非、英属东非和南亚,等等。
Then over the late '40s, '50s, '60s, '70s and '80s, waves of decolonization took place.	接着40年代末期, 50年代、60年代、70年代和80年代, 脱离殖民运动开始风气云涌。
decolonization:n.非殖民地化,殖民地自治化;
Over 50 new countries were born.	诞生了50多个新的国家。
You can see that Africa has been fragmented .	你可以看到非洲被打碎了。
fragmented:v.(使)碎裂,破裂,分裂;(fragment的过去分词和过去式)
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created.	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、东南亚国家建立了起来。
Then came the end of the Cold War.	之后冷战结束。
The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.	冷战结束和苏联的解体。
disintegration:n.瓦解,崩溃;分解; Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人;
You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe, the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans, and the 'stans of central Asia.	我们又见证了东欧一些新的国家的成立, 前南斯拉夫共和国和巴尔干半岛诸国, 以及中亚的一些斯坦国。
creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物; Eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒;
Today we have 200 countries in the world.	今天世界上有200多个国家。
Then entire planet is covered by sovereign , independent nation-states .	整个地球都被自治区、独立国家/洲等所覆盖。
sovereign:adj.至高无上的; n.君主; independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等); nation-states:n.民族国家;单一民族国家(nation-state的复数形式);
Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss?	这是不是说一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢？
Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world,	让我们将焦点对准世界上最具战略意义的地区,
strategic:adj.战略上的,战略的;
Eastern Eurasia .	欧亚大陆东部。
Eurasia:n.欧亚(大陆);
As you can see on this map,	从地图上可以看到,
As you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的;
Russia is still the largest country in the world.	俄罗斯仍然是世界上最大的国家。
And as you know, China is the most populous .	大家也知道,中国是人口最多的国家。
populous:adj.人口稠密的;人口多的;
And they share a lengthy land border.	这两个国家中间有一条漫长的陆地疆界。
lengthy:adj.漫长的,冗长的;啰唆的;
What you don't see on this map is that most of Russia's 150 million people are concentrated in its western provinces and areas that are close to Europe.	而大家从这张地图上看不见的是俄罗斯1.5亿人口中的大部分都集中在西部靠近欧洲的省份和地区。
concentrated:adj.决心要做的; v.集中(注意力); (concentrate的过去式和过去分词)
And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas.	仅有3000万人口居住在东部地区。
In fact, the world bank predicts that Russia's population is declining towards about 120 million people	事实上,世界银行预测俄罗斯的人口正在减少逐渐减少至1.2亿。
world bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构); predicts:vt.预报,预言;预知;vi.作出预言;作预料,作预报; declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词)
And there is another thing that you don't see on this map.	此外还有一件事大家也无法从地图上得知。
Stalin , Kruschev, and other Soviet leaders forced Russians out to the far east to be in gulags , labor camps, nuclear cites , whatever the case was.	斯大林、克鲁晓夫和其他苏联的领导人曾经强迫俄罗斯人移居远东地区的古拉格、劳动集中营、核试验基地,等等。
Stalin:n.斯大林(前苏联领导人); gulags:n.古拉格(集中营); nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的; cites:n.引文(cite的复数形式);v.援引(cite的第三人称单数形式);
But as oil prices rose,	但随着油价的上升,
Russian governments have invested in infrastructure to unite the country, east and west.	俄罗斯政府投资建设了基础设施以联结东部和西部。
invested:v.投资;投入;(invest的过去分词和过去式) infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; unite:v.联合;团结;统一;n.由奈特;
But nothing has more perversely impacted	但是很难再像以前那样强蛮地
perversely:adv.倔强地; impacted:adj.压紧的;结实的;嵌入的;(人口)稠密的;v.装紧;挤满(impact的过去分词);
Russia's demographic distribution .	影响俄罗斯的人口分布了。
demographic:adj.人口统计学的;人口学的; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
Because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway have gotten on those trains and roads, and gone back to the west.	因为东部地区的那些居民一直都不愿意呆在那里, 他们登上火车和汽车返回了西部地区。
As a result , in the Russian far east today, which is twice the size of India, you have exactly six million Russians.	结果呢,现在的俄罗斯远东地区, 虽然面积是印度的两倍, 却只剩下了600万人口。
As a result:结果;
So lets get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world.	那么让我们来了解一下这个地区现在正在发生什么。
We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia.	我们先看一下蒙古国,也有人称呼它为矿之国。
Why do they call it that?	为什么这么称呼它呢？
Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate and own most of the mines -- copper , zinc , gold -- and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China.	因为在矿之国,中国公司开采和拥有那里的大部分矿藏 -- 铜矿、锌矿、金矿 -- 他们将这些资源用卡车运回中国大陆的南部和东部。
copper:n.铜;铜币;警察;adj.铜(制)的;(紫)铜色的;v.用铜板[铜皮]盖[包]; zinc:v.镀锌…;涂锌于…;用锌处理;n.锌; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数);
China isn't conquering Mongolia.	中国并没有在征服蒙古。
conquering:v.战胜,征服;攻克,攻取;(conquer的现在分词)
It's buying it.	而是在购买蒙古。
Colonies were once conquered . Today countries are bought.	过去殖民地是征服得来的,而今天国家是购买得到的。
conquered:v.攻克;征服;击败,战胜;控制;(conquer的过去分词和过去式)
So let's apply this principle to Siberia .	同样的法则也适用于西伯利亚。
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉; Siberia:n.西伯利亚;
Siberia most of you probably think of as a cold, desolate , unlivable place.	许多人可能都会认为西伯利亚是个寒冷、荒芜和不适合居住的地方。
desolate:adj.荒凉的;无人烟的;vt.使荒凉;使孤寂; unlivable:adj.不适宜于居住的;
But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures, all of the sudden you have vast wheat fields and agribusiness , and grain being produced in Siberia.	但事实上,随着全球暖化和温度上升, 忽然之间,那里出现了大片的麦田农业贸易和谷物。
global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖; agribusiness:n.农业综合企业(包括农业设备,用品的制造,农产品的产销,制造加工等); grain:n.粮食; v.把…作成细粒;
But who is it going to feed?	那么这些农产品是给谁消费的呢？
Well, just on the other side of the Amo River, in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China you have over 100 million people.	就在漠河的另外一边, 就是中国的黑龙江等省那里居住着超过1亿的人口。
on the other side:另一面;在另一边;
That's larger than the entire population of Russia.	这比整个俄罗斯的人口都要多。
Every single year, for at least a decade or more,	每年,至少在过去10多年里都是如此,
[60,000] of them have been voting with their feet, crossing, moving north, and inhabiting this desolate terrain .	都有60万人口用他们的脚投票, 穿越边界,移民北方,居住在这些荒凉的地带。
inhabiting:vt.栖息;居住于;占据;vi.(古)居住;栖息; terrain:n.[地理]地形,地势;领域;地带;
They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics .	他们建立起了他们自己的百货市场和医疗诊所。
bazaars:n.市集(bazaar的复数); clinics:n.诊所(clinic的复数形式);
They've taken over the timber industry and been shipping the lumber east, back into China.	他们还接手了伐木业, 将木材往东运回中国。
timber:n.木材;木料; lumber:vi.伐木; vt.砍伐木材; n.木材;
Again, like Mongolia,	和在蒙古发生的一样,
China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it.	中国并不是在征服俄罗斯。只是在租赁而已。
leasing:n.谎话;v.租用,租借,出租;(lease的现在分词)
That's what I call globalization Chinese style.	这就是我所称的中国式全球化。
globalization:n.全球化;
Now maybe this is what the map of the region might look like in 10 to 20 years.	也许这就是这个区域的地图在10至20年后的样子。
region:n.地区;范围;部位;
But hold on. This map is 700 years old.	但有意思的是,这张地图已经700岁了。
This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty , lead by Kubla Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan .	这正是中国元代的地图, 由忽必烈汗统治的朝代,成吉思汗的孙子。
Dynasty:n.代;王朝;朝代; Genghis Khan:n.非常残酷的人;极右分子;
So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme .	历史并不一定会重复, 但却会重演。
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地; rhyme:韵律
This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world.	这只是让大家稍微了解了一下这个地区正在发生什么。
Again, globalization Chinese style.	同样,中国式的全球化。
Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to undermine and change the way we think about political geography.	因为全球化为我们带来了多种多样的可能性来变革我们思考政治地理的方式。
undermine:vt.破坏,渐渐破坏;挖掘地基;
So, the history of East Asia in fact, people don't think about nations and borders.	因此,事实上在东亚的历史中, 人们并没有太过关注国家和疆界。
They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies , usually Chinese or Japanese.	而更在意帝权和统治, 通常是中国人和日本人。
hierarchies:n.阶层,层级;[数]分层,分类;
Well it's China's turn again.	现在又轮到中国了。
So let's look at how China is restablishing that hierarchy in the far east.	让我们看一下中国是如何再次建立起它在远东地区的统治地位的。
hierarchy:n.层级;等级制度;
It starts with the global hubs .	它首先从全球性的区域中心开始。
hubs:n.枢纽;中心(hub的复数);毂;
Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map that show the hubs of the global economy.	记得刚刚那张夜间地图中的40多个亮点吗？这些亮点标示出了全球经济的聚集区。
nighttime:n.夜间;adj.夜间的;夜里发生的;
East Asia today has more of those global hubs than any other region in the world.	当今东亚地区拥有全世界最多的经济聚集区比世界上任何其他地区都多。
Tokyo, Seoul , Beijing, Shanghai,	东京、首尔、北京、上海、
Seoul:n.[城]首尔;
Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney.	香港、新加坡和悉尼。
These are the filters and funnels of global capital.	这些区域是全球资金的过滤网和漏斗。
filters:n.过滤器; v.过滤; (filter的第三人称单数和复数) funnels:n.[化学]漏斗(funnel的复数);
Trillions of dollars a year being brought into the region.	每年有数以兆计的资金流入这个区域。
Trillions:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
So much of it being invested into China.	其中很多都投向了中国。
Then there is trade.	还有贸易。
These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger trade relationships that China has with every country in the region.	这些指向线和箭头代表中国与区域内各国的贸易关系史无前例地紧密。
vectors:n.[数]向量(vector的复数); v.推动…前进;
Specifically it targets Japan and Korea and Australia, countries that are strong allies of the United States.	尤其是它对日本、韩国和澳大利亚的贸易, 这些国家都是美国的密切盟友。
Specifically:adv.特别地;明确地; allies:n.盟友,支持者:v.与…结盟(ally的第三人称单数和复数) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
Australia, for example, is heavily dependent on exporting iron ore , natural gas to China.	例如澳大利亚,非常依赖向中国出口铁矿石和天然气。
dependent on:依赖于;依靠; exporting:v.出口;输出;传播,输出(思想或活动);(export的现在分词) ore:n.矿;矿石;矿砂; natural gas:n.天然气;
For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply and become dependent on exporting to China as well.	而在与贫穷国家交易时,中国降低关税因而老挝和柬埔寨可以以更便宜的价格销售他们的商品随之也对向中国的出口产生依赖。
tariffs:n.[税收]关税(tariff的复数); Cambodia:n.柬埔寨(位于亚洲);
And now many of you have been reading in the news how people are looking to China to lead the rebound , the economic rebound , not just in Asia, but potentially for the world.	许多人都在新闻中看到大家都很期待中国引领复苏,经济复苏,不仅仅是对亚洲,而可能是对全世界。
rebound:n.回弹;篮板球;v.回升;弹回;使弹回;(rebind的过去式和过去分词); economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地;
The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific.	亚洲自由贸易区,几乎已经是自由贸易区了,正逐步显现。贸易额超过了跨太平洋的贸易额。
free trade:n.自由贸易(制度); emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) volume:n.体积;容积;音量;响度;一册;合订本
So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.	因此中国正成为该地区经济的靠山。
Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy .	这一策略的另外一个支柱是外交。
pillar:n.支柱; v.用柱子装饰[支持]; strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略; diplomacy:n.外交;外交手腕;交际手段;
China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region.	中国与该地区内的许多国家都签署了军事协议。
military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions such as the East Asian Community .	它已成为一些国际关系组织的中心例如东亚共同体。
diplomatic:adj.外交的;从事外交的;有手腕的;灵活变通的; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) Community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
Some of these organizations don't even have the United States as a member.	有些组织甚至将美国排除在外。
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构;
There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries, such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States, most countries vow to just sit it out, including American allies like Korea and Australia.	这些国家间达成了一个互不干涉条约, 因而如果中国与美国之间发生冲突, 大部分国家都会宣誓中立, 包括韩国和澳大利亚等美国盟友。
treaty:n.条约,协议;谈判; vow:n.发誓;誓言;许愿;v.发誓;郑重宣告;vi.发誓;郑重宣告;
Another pillar of the strategy, like Russia, is demographic.	该策略的另外一个支柱, 例如针对俄罗斯,是人口。
China exports business people, nannies , students, teachers to teach Chinese around the region, to intermarry and to occupy ever greater commanding heights of the economies .	中国向外输出商人、保姆、学生、和老师,在整个区域内教授中文, 彼此通婚,以及在各个经济体中占据史无前例的主导性地位。
exports:n.出口商品;输出额; nannies:n.保姆;母山羊; intermarry:vi.通婚;近亲结婚; occupy:v.占据,占领;居住;使忙碌; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Already ethnic Chinese people in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are the real key factors and drivers in the economies there.	已经可以看到中国人在马来西亚、泰国和印尼等国家中成为了当地经济不容忽视的关键因素和推动力。
ethnic:adj.种族的;人种的; Thailand:n.泰国(东南亚国家名); Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国); factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
Chinese pride is resurgent in the region as a result.	中国人的自豪感在这个区域也再次复苏。
resurgent:adj.复活的;复苏的;n.复活者;
Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education.	例如新加坡,曾经一度禁止利用中文教学。
Now it encourages it.	而现在却大力提倡。
If you add it all up what do you get?	让我们综合来看,大家会得出什么结论？
Well, if you remember before World War II,	如果你还记得二战前
Japan had a vision for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere .	日本曾有一个梦想建立日本大东亚共荣圈。
vision:n.视力;美景;幻象;想象力;v.想象;显现;梦见; sphere:n.球;领域;球体;球形;v.使成球形;包围;把…放在球内;使处于天体之间;
What's emerging today is what you might call a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere.	而今一个我们可以称之为大中国共荣圈的形态正逐步显现。
So no matter what the lines on the map tell you in terms of nations and borders, what you really have emerging in the far east are national cultures, but in a much more fluid , imperial zone.	因此不管地图上的分界线是如何区隔出国家和划出疆界的, 在远东地区正在呈现的国家文化, 却是在一个流动的帝国区域里互通的。
no matter what:不管什么…; fluid:adj.流动的;流畅的;不固定的;n.流体;液体; imperial:adj.帝国的;皇帝的;至高无上的;威严的;n.纸张尺寸;特等品;
All of this is happening without firing a shot.	这些都是在不发一颗子弹的情况下发生的。
That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East where countries are still very uncomfortable in the borders left behind by European colonialists .	而在中东地区却大相径庭, 这里的国家仍然对欧洲殖民者留下的疆界感到非常不满。
Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部); colonialists:n.殖民主义者;adj.殖民主义者的;
So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world?	那么我们怎样能够换一种方式来看待这个区域的疆界问题呢？
What lines on the map should we focus on?	我们应该关注地图上的哪些线呢？
What I want to present to you is what I call	我要向大家展示的是一个我称之为
State building, day by day .	渐进式国家建立的概念。
day by day:adj.每天的;
Let's start with Iraq.	让我们从伊拉克谈起。
Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality.	美国入侵伊拉克6年后, 地图上的这个国家仍然是比现实中的完整很多。
invasion:n.武装入侵;侵略;侵犯;涌入;干预;
Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together.	石油原本是将伊拉克各派势力团结在一起的因素。
Now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration.	而现在石油却是导致国家分裂的根源。
significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
The reason is Kurdistan .	原因是库尔德人。
Kurdistan:n.库尔德斯坦(西南亚库尔德人分布地区);
The Kurds for 3,000 years have been waging a struggle for independence .	库尔德人3000年来一直进行着追求独立的斗争。
Kurds:n.库尔德人(Kurd的复数); waging:v.开始,进行,继续(战争、战斗等);(wage的现在分词) independence:n.独立;独立性;自恃心;独立不羁的精神;
And now is their chance to finally have it.	现在是他们可以最终获取独立的机会。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
These are pipeline routes , which emerge from Kurdistan, which is an oil-rich region.	这些是输油管道,源头从库尔德开始, 这是一个石油资源富饶的地区。
routes:n.路线;途径;路途;渠道;v.按某路线发送;(route的第三人称单数和复数) emerge:v.浮现;显现;暴露;露出真相; oil-rich:石油藏量丰富的;
And today, if you go to Kurdistan, you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army.	今天,如果你去库尔德, 你会看到库尔德“自由斗士” 正对伊拉克逊尼派军队进行自卫攻击。
Kurdish:n.库尔德语;adj.库尔德人的; guerillas:n.游击队;游击队员;adj.游击的; Sunni:n.(伊斯兰)逊尼派教徒;
But what are they guarding?	他们所要守护的是什么呢？
Is it really a border on the map?	仅仅是地图上的一条疆界吗?
No. It's the pipelines.	当然不是。是输油管道。
If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms of their own statehood .	如果库尔德人掌控了他们的输油管道,他们就可以起草建立他们自己的国家。
statehood:n.国家地位;州的状态或地位;
Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq?	那么我们应该为之感到难过吗？因为伊拉克可能会被分裂。
upset:adj.沮丧; v.打乱; n.苦恼; (意外的)混乱;
I don't believe we should.	我认为不然。
Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world, behind Saudi Arabia .	伊拉克仍然会是世界上第二大产油国, 仅次于沙特阿拉伯。
Saudi:adj.沙乌地阿拉伯(人或语)的;n.沙乌地阿拉伯人; Arabia:n.阿拉伯半岛(亚洲西南部,等于ArabianPeninsula);
And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute .	而且我们有机会解决一个存在3000年的纷争。
dispute:n.纠纷;争端;争论;辩论;v.争论;争执;辩论;争夺;
Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked .	不要忘记库尔德是一个被陆地包围的地区。
landlocked:adj.为陆地所包围的;
It has no choice but to behave .	它必须循规蹈矩。
behave:v.表现;(机器等)运转;举止端正;(事物)起某种作用;
In order to profit from its oil it has to export it through Turkey or Syria , and other countries, and Iraq itself.	要从它的石油中获取利益, 它必须取道土耳其或者叙利亚输出石油, 以及别的国家,包括伊拉克。
profit:n.利润;利益;v.获利;有益; Syria:n.叙利亚共和国;
And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.	因而它必须要和他们保持友好关系。
amicable:adj.友好的;友善的;
Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region.	现在我们看一下这个地区另外一个连年不断的冲突。
perennial:adj.多年生的;常年的;四季不断的;常在的;反复的;n.多年生植物;
That is, of course, in Palestine.	显而易见,这就是巴勒斯坦。
Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly because it's two parts Palestinian , one part Israel .	巴勒斯坦从地图上看是一个畸形儿, 因为它由两部分巴勒斯坦和一部分以色列组成。
cartographic:adj.地图的;制图的; anomaly:n.异常;不规则;反常事物; Palestinian:adj.巴勒斯坦的;巴勒斯坦人的;n.巴勒斯坦人; Israel:n.以色列(亚洲国家);犹太人,以色列人;
30 years of rose garden diplomacy have not delivered us peace in this conflict.	30年的玫瑰花园外交并没有给这里的区域冲突中带来和平。
What might? I believe that what might solve the problem is infrastructure.	那有其他办法吗？我认为要这个问题可以通过基础工程建设来解决。
Today donors are spending billions of dollars on this.	今天,捐助者正花费数十亿美金在此项目上。
donors:n.捐赠人(donor的复数);[电子]施主;
These two arrows are an arc, an arc of commuter railroads and other infrastructure that link the West Bank and Gaza.	这两个箭头连成一条弧线, 一条由客运火车线和其它基础设施连成的弧线连接西岸和加沙地带。
commuter:n.通勤者,经常乘公共车辆往返者;[交]月季票乘客;
If Gaza can have a functioning port and be linked to the West Bank you can have a viable Palestinian state,	如果加沙有一个运营的港口跟西岸连通起来,那么就可以切实可行地成立一个巴勒斯坦国,
viable:adj.可行的;能养活的;能生育的;
Palestinian economy.	以及巴勒斯坦经济体。
That, I believe, is going to bring peace to this particular conflict.	我相信这一举措可以给这个区域带来和平。
The lesson from Kurdistan and from Palestine, is that independence alone, without infrastructure, is futile .	库尔德和巴勒斯坦的教训是独立本身,如果没有基础建设的支持, 是没有意义的。
futile:adj.无用的;无效的;没有出息的;琐细的;不重要的;
Now what might this entire region look like if in fact we focus on other lines on the map besides borders, when the insecurities might abate ?	那么试想整个这个区域会呈现怎样一个面貌呢？如果我们也去关注地图上除了边界线之外的其他界线的话。那时候不稳定因素会大幅减少吗。
besides:adv.此外;而且;prep.除…之外; insecurities:n.不安全;不牢靠;无把握;心神不定; abate:vt.减轻;减少;废除;vi.减轻;失效;
The last time that was the case was actually a century ago, during the Ottoman Empire.	上一次和平时期已经是一个世纪以前的事了,在奥斯曼帝国时期。
Ottoman:adj.土耳其帝国的(等于Turkish);土耳其人的;土耳其民族的;n.土耳其人;
This is the Hijaz Railway.	这是Hijaz铁路线。
The Hijaz Railway ran from Istanbul to Medina via Damascus.	Hijaz铁路线从斯坦布尔出发,途经大马士革,抵达麦地那。
Medina:n.麦地那;
It even had an offshoot running to Haifa in what is today Israel, on the Mediterranean Sea.	它甚至有一条支线可以抵达海法, 位于今天的以色列,紧靠地中海。
offshoot:n.分支;支流;衍生物; Mediterranean:n.地中海;adj.地中海的;
But today the Hijaz Railway lies in tatters , ruins .	但是今天的Hijaz铁路线破败不堪。
tatters:n.破衣服;梭织者;碎片(tatter的复数);v.撕碎;把…穿破(tatter的三单形式); ruins:n.遗迹(ruin的复数形式);废墟;v.毁灭(ruin的三单形式);
If we were to focus on reconstructing these curvy lines on the map, infrastructure, that cross the straight lines, the borders,	如果我们可以将地图上这些曲线重新建造起来的话, 这些基础建设,穿越这些直线 -- 疆界,
reconstructing:v.再现,重建;改造(reconstruct的ing形式); curvy:adj.弯曲的;曲线美的(等于curvaceous);
I believe the Middle East would be a far more peaceful region.	我相信中东会成为一个远比现在和平的地区。
Now let's look at another part of the world, the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the 'stans.	让我们将目光转到地球上的另外一个区域, 位于中亚地区的前苏联地区,这些斯坦国。
These countries' borders originate from Stalin's decrees .	这些国家的边界线来自于斯大林颁布的法令。
originate:vt.引起;创作;vi.发源;发生;起航; decrees:n.[法]法令; v.颁布;
He purposely did not want these countries to make sense .	他故意将这些国家分割得七零八落。
purposely:adv.故意地;蓄意地; make sense:有意义;讲得通;言之有理;
He wanted ethnicities to mingle in ways that would allow him to divide and rule.	他想让不同种族混居这样他就可以进行分裂和统治。
ethnicities:n.种族划分; mingle:v.(使)与…结合;相交往,混杂其中;
Fortunately for them, most of their oil and gas resources were discovered after the Soviet Union collapsed .	而对这些国家来说幸运的是,他们大部分的油气资源是在苏联垮台之后发现的。
Fortunately:adv.幸运地; collapsed:v.倒塌,坍塌;倒下,昏倒;坐下;(collapse的过去分词和过去式)
Now I know some of you may be thinking, "Oil, oil, oil.	我知道你们中的一些人肯定在想,“石油,石油,又是石油,
Why is all he's talking about is oil?"	为什么他老在说石油呢？”
Well there is a big difference in the way we used to talk about oil and the way we're talking about it now.	请注意,以前我们讨论石油的方式和现在我们所讨论的方式是大不相同的。
in the way:妨碍;挡道;
Before it was, how do we control their oil?	以前,我们会讨论我们如何控制他们的石油。
Now it's their oil for their own purposes.	而现在是,他们怎样利用自己的石油。
And I assure you it's every bit as important to them as it might have been to colonizers and imperialists .	我敢保证,现在对他们来说任何一滴石油都十分重要, 和曾经对于殖民统治者和帝国主义者那样同样重要。
assure:vt.保证;担保;使确信;弄清楚; colonizers:n.殖民者;殖民地开拓者;移入选民;移民; imperialists:n.帝国主义者;帝国统治拥护者;(imperialist的复数)
Here are just some of the pipeline projections and possibilities and scenarios and routes that are being mapped out for the next several decades.	这里是一些计划中的输油管道和一些可能的情况以及线路,也许会在未来的几十年内得以实现。
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数) scenarios:n.情节;脚本;情景介绍(scenario的复数);
A great deal of them.	非常之多。
A great deal of:大量;
For a number of countries in this part of the world, having pipelines is the ticket to becoming part of the global economy and for having some meaning, besides the borders that they are not loyal to themselves.	对这个区域的一些国家来说, 拥有输油管到就等同于拿到了加入全球经济体中的门票这对他们很有意义, 加之边界对他们来存在变数。
loyal:adj.忠诚的,忠心的;忠贞的;n.效忠的臣民;忠实信徒;
Just take Azerbaijan.	让我们举一下阿塞拜疆的例子。
Azerbaijan was a forgotten corner of the Caucuses .	阿塞拜疆是高加索地区被遗忘一个的角落。
Caucuses:n.党团会议(caucus的复数形式);v.开干部会议(caucus的第三人称单数形式);
But now with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey, it has rebranded itself as the frontier of the west.	但是随着Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan输油管道通往土耳其, 它已重新将自己标榜为西方的前哨。
rebranded:更名;
Then there is Turkmenistan which most people think of as a frozen basket case .	还有土库曼斯坦,在许多人的印象里它就是一个天寒地冻的毫无希望之地。
basket case:四肢不全的人;完全伤残者;完全没有希望的人;
But now it's contributing gas across the Caspian Sea to provide for Europe, and even a potentially Turkmen-	但是现在它正穿越里海将天然气输往欧洲, 甚至有可能建造土库曼-
contributing:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物);捐助;增加;增进;(contribute的现在分词) Caspian:adj.里海(附近)的; provide for:供养,供给;规定;为…作准备;
Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline as well.	阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度输油管道。
Then there is Kazakhstan, which didn't even have a name before.	还有哈萨克斯坦,之前甚至没有一个正式的名字。
It was more considered South Siberia during the Soviet Union.	在苏联时期它更多地被称作南西部利亚。
Today most people recognize Kazakhstan as an emerging geopolitical player. Why?	而现在大部分人都认为哈萨克斯坦是一个新兴的地缘政治角色。为什么呢？
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; geopolitical:adj.地理政治学的;
Because it has shrewdly designed pipelines to flow across the Caspian, north through Russia, and even east to China.	因为它机智地设计了穿越里海的输油管道, 往北进入俄罗斯的管道,甚至向西进入中国的管道。
shrewdly:adv.精明干练地;机灵地;刁钻地;
More pipelines means more silk roads, instead of the Great Game.	管道越多意味着“丝绸之路”也越多,而不再是大博弈。
The Great Game connotes dominance of one over the other.	大博弈意味着一个国家对另外一个国家的主导。
connotes:vt.意味着;含言外之意; dominance:n.优势;统治;支配;
Silk road connotes independence and mutual trust.	而丝绸之路意味着独立和互信。
mutual:adj.共同的;相互的,彼此的;
The more pipelines we have, the more silk roads we'll have, and the less of a dominant Great Game competition we'll have in the 21st Century.	输油管道越多,那么丝绸之路也会越多, 21世纪的主导权争夺战也会越来越少。
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛;
Now let's look at the only part of the world that really has brought down its borders, and how that has enhanced its strength.	让我们来看一下这个世界上唯一真正放弃了边界的地区, 以及这一举动如何让它自身变得更加强大。
enhanced:adj.加强的;增大的;v.提高;加强(enhance的过去分词);
And that is, of course, Europe.	当然,这就是欧洲。
The European Union began as just the coal and steel community of six countries.	欧盟仅起源于6个煤炭和钢铁联盟的国家。
European Union:n.欧洲联盟;
And their main purpose was really to keep the rehabilitation of Germany to happen in a peaceful way.	他们的主要目的实际上是为了帮助德国通过和平的方式得以复苏。
rehabilitation:n.康复;恢复;善后;平反;复权;
But then eventually it grew into 12 countries.	但是却逐渐扩大到12个国家。
eventually:adv.最后,终于;
And those are the 12 stars on the European flag.	这些国家就是欧盟旗帜上的12颗星。
The E.U. also became a currency block, and is now the most powerful trade block in the entire world.	欧盟也成为了一个货币联盟, 它是世界上现今最强大的贸易联盟。
currency:n.货币;通货;
On average the E.U. has grown by one country per year since the end of the Cold War.	欧盟以平均每年吸纳一个新成员的速度扩张自从冷战以来。
In fact most of that happened on just one day.	事实上,许多新成员都是同一天加入的。
In 2004, 15 new countries joined the E.U.	2004年,15个新成员国家加入了欧盟。
and now you have what most people consider a zone of peace spanning 27 countries and 450 million people.	现在,一个由 27个国家和4.5亿人口组成的公认的和平区域呈现在我们面前。
spanning:v.持续;贯穿;包括(广大地区);涵盖(多项内容);(span的现在分词)
So what is next? What is the future of the European Union?	那么下一步是什么？欧盟的未来会是怎样？
Well in light blue, you see the zones or the regions that are at least two-thirds or more dependent on the European Union for trade and investment .	这个浅蓝色区域,你可以看到至少 2/3的地方依赖于与欧盟国家的贸易和投资。
regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数) two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地; investment:n.投资;投入;封锁;
What does that tell us? Trade and investment tell us that Europe is putting its money where its mouth is.	这又能说明什么呢？贸易和投资告诉我们欧洲并不是在纸上谈兵,而是付出了实际的行动。
Even if these regions aren't part of the E.U., they are becoming part of its sphere of influence .	即使这些区域不是欧盟成员国, 他们正逐渐加入欧盟影响圈。
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
Just take the Balkans. Croatia , Serbia	例如巴尔干半岛国家、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、
Croatia:n.克罗地亚(南斯拉夫成员共和国名);
Bosnia , they're not members of the E.U. yet.	波斯尼亚,它们还不是欧盟成员国。
Bosnia:n.波斯尼亚;波士尼亚;
But you can get on a German ICE train and make it almost to Albania.	但是你如果登上一辆德国ICE火车几乎可以到达阿尔巴尼亚。
In Bosnia you use the Euro currency already, and that's the only currency they're probably ever going to have.	在波斯尼亚,你可以使用欧元, 也许这将是他们从此以后使用的唯一货币。
So, looking at other parts of Europe's periphery , such as North Africa.	让我们看一下欧洲的外围,例如北非。
periphery:n.外围,边缘;圆周;圆柱体表面;
On average, every year or two, a new oil or gas pipeline opens up under the Mediterranean, connecting North Africa to Europe.	平均每年或者每两年, 会有一条新的石油或者天然气运输管道穿越地中海, 将北非与欧洲连接到一起。
That not only helps Europe diminish its reliance on Russia for energy, but if travel to North Africa today you'll hear more and more people saying that they don't really think of their region as the Middle East.	这不仅仅帮助欧洲减少了对俄罗斯在能源上的依赖, 而且如果你今天去北非旅游,你会听到越来越多的人说他们并不属于中东地区。
diminish:vt.使减少;使变小;vi.减少,缩小;变小; reliance:n.信赖;信心;受信赖的人或物;
So in other words, I believe that President Sarkozy of France is right when he talks about a Mediterranean union.	也就是说,我非常认同法国总统萨克齐关于地中海联盟的观点。
Sarkozy:n.萨科齐(法国总统);
Now let's look at Turkey, and the Caucasus .	再来看一下土耳其,和高加索国家。
Caucasus:n.高加索(俄罗斯南部地区,位于黑海和里海之间,等于Caucasia);
I mentioned Azerbaijan before.	我之前提到过阿塞拜疆。
That corridor of Turkey and the Caucasus has become the conduit for 20 percent of Europe's energy supply.	土耳其和高加索地区的那条走廊已经成为欧洲20%能源供应的通道。
corridor:n.通道;过道;走廊(一国领土通过他国境内的狭长地带); conduit:n.[电]导管;沟渠;导水管;
So does Turkey really have to be a member of the European Union?	土耳其难道非得要成为欧盟成员国吗？
I don't think it does. I think it's already part of a Euro-Turkish superpower .	我认为不然。我认为它已经是欧洲-土耳其这个结构中的一个超级力量了。
superpower:n.超级大国;超级强权;
So what's next? Where are we going to see borders change and new countries born?	那么接下来呢？我们会在哪些地方看到边界线的改变以及新国家的诞生？
Well, South Central Asia, South West Asia is a very good place to start.	南亚中心地区,西南亚地区是一个很有可能的地方。
Eight years after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan there is still a tremendous amount of instability .	在美国入侵阿富汗8年之后这个地区仍然充满了巨大的不稳定因素。
invaded:v.入侵;拥入;遍布(invade的过去分词);adj.被侵入的; Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲); tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; instability:n.不稳定(性);基础薄弱;不安定;
Pakistan and Afghanistan are still so fragile that neither of them have dealt constructively with the problem of Pashtun nationalism .	巴基斯坦和阿富汗仍然如此脆弱以至于他们都没有实质性地处理普什图人的民族主义问题。
fragile:adj.脆的;易碎的; constructively:adv.建设性地; nationalism:n.民族主义;国家主义;民族特性;
This is the flag that flies in the minds of 20 million Pashtuns who live on both sides of the the Afghan and Pakistan border.	这是存在于2000万普什图人心目中的国旗, 他们住在阿富汗和巴基斯坦边界线的两边。
Let's not neglect the insurgency just to the south.	不要忘了在南部还有叛乱。
neglect:v.忽视;忽略;疏忽;疏于照顾;n.忽视;忽略;未被重视; insurgency:n.叛乱;暴动;叛乱状态;
Baluchistan. Two weeks ago	俾路支。两周前,
Baluchi rebels attacked a Pakistani military garrison and this was the flag that they raised over it.	俾路支叛军对巴基斯坦的一个军事守备部队进行了攻击这就是他们在攻击时举起的旗帜。
rebels:n.反叛者(rebel的复数形式);v.谋反(rebel的第三人称单数形式); Pakistani:adj.巴基斯坦的;n.巴基斯坦人; garrison:n.要塞;卫戍部队;vt.驻防;守卫;
The post-colonial entropy that is happening around the world is accelerating .	后殖民时期国家解体在全球发生并在加速。
entropy:n.[热]熵(热力学函数); accelerating:adj.促进的,[物]加速的;催化的;
And I expect more such changes to occur in the map as the states fragment.	我预期地图上如此的改变会随着这些国家的分解而越来越多。
occur:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;
Of course we can't forget Africa.	当然我们不能忘了非洲。
53 countries, and by far the most number of suspiciously straight lines on the map.	53个国家,拥有世界地图上最多的充满疑问的直线型疆界的地方。
suspiciously:adv.怀疑地;猜疑地;
If we were to look at all of Africa we could most certainly acknowledge far more, tribal divisions and so forth.	如果我们全盘地看一下非洲, 我们可以毫无异议地看到比其他地方多得多的诸如部落纷争之类的冲突。
tribal:adj.部落的;部族的;n.(尤指南亚的)部落成员; divisions:n.分开;分隔;分配;除(法);不和;差异;(division的复数)
But let's just look at Sudan, the second-largest country in Africa.	我就举苏丹的例子,非洲第二大国家。
It has three ongoing civil wars, the genocide in Darfur , which you all know about, the civil war in the east of the country, and south Sudan.	它有三场连绵不断的内战, 达尔福尔的种族灭绝战,这大家都知道, 这个国家东部的内战, 还有苏丹南部地区的内战。
ongoing:n.发展; adj.持续存在的; civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; genocide:n.种族灭绝;灭绝整个种族的大屠杀; Darfur:n.达尔富尔(苏丹地名);
South Sudan is going to be having a referendum in 2011 in which it is very likely to vote itself independence.	南部苏丹将在2011年举行公投很可能这次投票的结果将是独立。
referendum:n.公民投票权;外交官请示书;
Now let's go up to the Arctic Circle .	往北,到北极圈附近.
Arctic Circle:n.北极圈;
There is a great race on for energy resources under the Arctic seabed .	这里正上演着一场对北极海床底下能源的争夺战。
seabed:n.海底;海床;
Who will win? Canada? Russia? The United States?	谁会胜利？加拿大？俄罗斯？还是美国？
Actually Greenland.	事实上格陵兰岛将是赢家。
Several weeks ago Greenland's [60,000] people voted themselves self-governance rights from Denmark.	数周前,格陵兰岛的6万居民投票表决,取得了从丹麦独立的自治权。
self-governance:n.自治;自我管理;自我治理;
So Denmark is about to get a whole lot smaller.	因而丹麦将会缩小很多。
is about to:眼看就要;即将;正要;行将;
What is the lesson from all of this?	这里得出的教训是什么呢？
Geopolitics is a very unsentimental discipline .	地缘政治是一个非常冷酷的学科。
Geopolitics:n.地缘政治学;地理政治论; unsentimental:adj.不动感情的; discipline:n.纪律;训练;自制力;风纪;v.训练;管教;惩罚;处罚;
It's constantly morphing and changing the world, like climate change.	它不断地改变世界, 好似气候变化。
constantly:adv.不断地;时常地; morphing:n.变形;
And like our relationship with the ecosystem we're always searching for equilibrium in how we divide ourselves across the planet.	正如我们与生态系统的关系一样, 我们总在寻找一种平衡我们如何在这个星球上分布。
ecosystem:n.生态系统; equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力;
Now we fear changes on the map.	我们害怕地图上的这些改变。
We fear civil wars, death tolls , having to learn the names of new countries.	我们害怕战争、死亡, 以及熟悉新诞生的国家的名字等。
tolls:n.通行费; vt.征收通行税;
But I believe that the inertia of the existing borders that we have today is far worse and far more violent.	但我认为, 我们今天边界线要是一直存在下去的话更糟糕,会带来更多的暴力。
inertia:n.[力]惯性;惰性,迟钝;不活动;
The question is how do we change those borders, and what lines do we focus on?	问题是我们该如何改变这些边界线, 那些线条是我们要关注的？
I believe we focus on the lines that cross borders, the infrastructure lines, then we'll wind up with the world we want, a borderless one.	我认为我们应该关注那些跨越边界的线, 那些基础设施建设的线条, 我们就能打造一个我们所畅想的世界,一个无国界的世界。
Thank you.	谢谢！
(Applause)	（掌声）

ParagKhanna_2009G-_描绘各国的未来_