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PaddyAshdown_2011X-_全球权力转移_
There's a poem written by a very famous English poet at the end of the 19th century. 十九世纪末 英国一位着名诗人 写了这样一首诗
It was said to echo in Churchill 's brain in the 1930s. 在 1930 年时,它被誉为 丘吉尔脑海中的回响
echo:vt.反射;重复;vi.随声附和;发出回声;n.回音;效仿; Churchill:n.邱吉尔(英国政治家及作家);
And the poem goes: "On the idle hill of summer, lazy with the flow of streams, hark I hear a distant drummer , drumming like a sound in dreams, far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by, dear to friend and food to powder , soldiers marching, soon to die." 诗是这样的 闲荡夏林间 溪自细细流 遥听远鼓响 鼓乐疑梦音 无常世间道 珍重朋与辈,碾食成粉末 战士踏征途 魂销沙场渺
idle:adj.闲置的;懒惰的;停顿的;v.无所事事;虚度;空转; hark:vi.听(常用于命令句); distant:adj.遥远的;远处的;久远的; drummer:n.鼓手;旅行推销员;跑街; far and near:远近;四面八方;到处; powder:n.粉末;细面;扑面粉;美容粉;v.傅粉;抹粉;
Those who are interested in poetry , the poem is "A Shropshire Lad " written by A.E. Housman. 对诗词有兴趣的朋友 这是豪斯曼的《施罗普希尔的少年》
poetry:n.诗;诗意,诗情;诗歌艺术; Lad:n.小伙子;老朋友;
But what Housman understood, and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too, was that the long, hot, silvan summers of stability of the 19th century were coming to a close, and that we were about to move into one of those terrifying periods of history when power changes. 但豪斯曼感悟些什么呢 和你在尼尔森交响乐中听到的一样 是那19 世纪,又长,又闷热, 平静的夏季森林 即将结束 我们将进入 一个可怕的 权力转变的历史周期
symphonies:n.交响曲(symphony的复数); stability:n.稳定性;坚定,恒心; were about to:眼看就要;即将;正要;行将; terrifying:adj.令人恐惧的;骇人的;极大的;v.使害怕,使恐怖;(terrify的现在分词)
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen, accompanied by turbulence , and all too often by blood. 女士先生们,这时代通常会 伴随着动乱 和流血事件
accompanied:v.陪同;陪伴;与…同时发生;为…伴奏;(accompany的过去式和过去分词) turbulence:n.骚乱,动荡;[流]湍流;狂暴;
And my message for you is that I believe we are condemned , if you like, to live at just one of those moments in history when the gimbals upon which the established order of power is beginning to change and the new look of the world, the new powers that exist in the world, are beginning to take form. 我给你的信息是 我相信我们坐上了同一条船 活在历史洪流中的同一时刻 当你遇上 固有权力的秩序开始改变 新世界 新力量 开始形成
condemned:adj.已被定罪的;被责难的; gimbals:n.平衡环; established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式)
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today -- nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times, and all too often very bloody times. 这些 -- 我们今天很清楚看见 都是些超混乱,特艰难的年代 和常有的流血时期。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; turbulent:adj.骚乱的,混乱的;狂暴的;吵闹的;激流的,湍流的; bloody:adj.血腥的;血淋淋的;v.血染;
By the way , it happens about once every century. 顺道一提,它大概一世纪出现一次
By the way:顺便说一下;
You might argue that the last time it happened -- and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too -- was that when power passed from the old nations, the old powers of Europe, across the Atlantic to the new emerging power of the United States of America -- the beginning of the American century. 你也许不认同最后那次的发生时间 – 就是豪斯曼和丘吉尔同时察觉的 欧洲旧国家,旧势力 权力转移到 大西洋对岸 新冒起的美国 开始了美国世纪
Atlantic:adj.大西洋的;巨人阿特拉斯的;n.大西洋; emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) United States of America:un.美利坚合众国;
And of course, into the vacuum where the too-old European powers used to be were played the two bloody catastrophes of the last century -- the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars. 当然,在欧洲势力下坡的最后年代 交替的空窗期 出现了两次 屠杀大灾难 前后两次的世界大战
vacuum:n.真空; adj.真空的; v.用真空吸尘器清扫; catastrophes:n.灾难;灾祸;横祸;不幸事件;困难;(catastrophe的复数)
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars, and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them. 毛泽东称它为欧洲内战 这形容确也贴切
refer:v.参考;涉及;提到;查阅; civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; accurate:adj.精确的; describing:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的现在分词)
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we live at one of those times. 好,女士先生们 我们生活在这当下
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today. 为了我们,今天我打算谈谈三个原素
factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
And the first of these, the first two of these, is about a shift in power. 这当中的头一个 是有关权力转移
shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换;
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to, which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now. 至于, 第二个我称它为新领域 过去好像都没出现过
dimension:n.方面;[数]维;尺寸;次元;容积vt.标出尺寸;adj.规格的; in the way:妨碍;挡道;
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world. 我们先说说发生中的权力转移
shifts:n.转移; v.转移; (shift的第三人称单数) occurring:n.事件;事故;事变;
And what is happening today is, in one sense, frightening because it's never happened before. 今天出现的 有点令人惊栗 因为它从没发生过
frightening:adj.可怕的;骇人的;引起恐惧的;v.使惊吓;使惊恐(frighten的现在分词)
We have seen lateral shifts of power -- the power of Greece passed to Rome and the power shifts that occurred during the European civilizations -- but we are seeing something slightly different. 我们见过权力的横向转移 权力从希腊过渡到罗马 和欧洲社会 出现的权力转移 但我们看到的现状稍异
lateral:adj.侧面的,横向的;n.侧部;[语]边音;vt.横向传球; occurred:v.发生;出现;存在于;出现在;(occur的过去分词和过去式) civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式); slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地;
For power is not just moving laterally from nation to nation. 权力不单是横向 在国与国间游走
laterally:adv.旁边地;
It's also moving vertically . 它也纵向移动
vertically:adv.垂直地;
What's happening today is that the power that was encased , held to accountability , held to the rule of law, within the institution of the nation state has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage. 今天出现的权力转移,更包括 和国家宪法里的 责任和法律的裁决 今天都很大程度搬上了国际舞台
encased:adj.包装的;被包住的;v.盖住;包起;装箱(encase的过去分词); accountability:n.有义务;有责任;可说明性; institution:n.制度;建立;(社会或宗教等)公共机构;习俗; nation state:n.单一民族国家; migrated:v.(随季节变化)迁徙;移居;迁移;移动;转移;(migrate的过去分词和过去式) global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
The globalization of power -- we talk about the globalization of markets, but actually it's the globalization of real power. 权力全球化 我们讲市场全球化 但真正全球化的是权力
globalization:n.全球化;
And where, at the nation state level that power is held to accountability subject to the rule of law, on the international stage it is not. 但在国家层面上 权力的层次 是受法律的约束 在国际舞台便不一样
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides : the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters , the power of the money changers -- this vast money-go-round 现今国际和环球舞台上的权力属于 互联网、卫星广播 货币兑换 巨额钞票的流转
resides:居住;存在; broadcasters:n.广播员;节目主持人;电视台;广播公司;(broadcaster的复数) changers:n.转换开关装置;改变者(change的名词形式);
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance -- the money changers, if you like, the financial speculators 融资额度约是 贸易需求的32倍 货币兑客, 你可称之为 金融投机家
circulates:v.(液体或气体)环流,循环;传播;流传;散布;(circulate的第三人称单数) supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; speculators:n.投机者(speculator的复数);
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently , the power of the multinational corporations now developing budgets often bigger than medium-sized countries. 近来,他们所为相当令人拜服 现今跨国企业的 编制预算的财力 比一般中等国家还要大
recently:adv.最近;新近; multinational:adj.跨国公司的;多国的;n.跨国公司; corporations:n.[贸易]公司,[经]企业(corporation的复数形式); budgets:n.[财政]预算(budget复数形式);v.为…做预算(budget的第三人称单数形式); medium-sized:adj.中型的,中等大小的;普通型的;
These live in a global space which is largely unregulated , not subject to the rule of law, and in which people may act free of constraint . 生存在国际舞台 绝大部分不受监管 既不受法律规管 行动又不受约束
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; unregulated:adj.未经调节的;[仪]未校准的; constraint:n.[数]约束;局促,态度不自然;强制;
Now that suits the powerful up to a moment. 直至现在 都有利权势人士
It's always suitable for those who have the most power to operate in spaces without constraint, but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later , unregulated space -- space not subject to the rule of law -- 在无约束下运作 永远适合极权者 但从历史可知,不久将来 没有监管的区域 没有法治的所在
suitable:adj.合适的;适宜的;适当的;适用的; sooner or later:迟早,早晚;
becomes populated , not just by the things you wanted -- international trade, the Internet, etc. -- but also by the things you don't want -- international criminality , international terrorism . 会不断膨胀,不只出现一些你要的东西 如国际贸易,互联网,等等 同时,也会出现些你不要的 国际罪案,国际恐怖主义
populated:v.生活于; criminality:n.有罪,犯罪;犯罪行为; terrorism:n.恐怖主义;
The revelation of 9/11 is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth, nevertheless , those who inhabit that space can attack you even in your most iconic of cities one bright September morning. 911 事件揭示 即使你身在地球上最强势的国家 城市里最具代表性的地标建筑 不管怎样 在九月某个明亮的早晨 那些空间的人民一样能攻击你
revelation:n.披露; adj.暴露的; nevertheless:adv.然而,不过;虽然如此;conj.然而,不过; inhabit:v.居住在;栖居于; iconic:adj.图标的,形象的;
It's said that something like 60 percent of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11 actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers which 9/11 destroyed. 据说,经双子塔法团通过的 4 百万元流动资金的 当中约 60%是用来支助 911 事件的 而双子塔就在 9/11 事件中被摧毁
fund:n.基金;资金;存款;v.投资;资助; institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
You see, our enemies also use this space -- the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters -- to be able to get around their poison, which is about destroying our systems and our ways. 看,我们的敌人也会利用这些空间 集体运输,互联网,卫星广播 来解决他们的毒害 不久,这会毁掉
mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集; get around:到处走走;逃避;说服;传开来(等于getround);有办法应付;有办法应付局面;
Sooner or later, sooner or later, the rule of history is that where power goes governance must follow. 我们的系统 我们的方式 历史法则是 权力走到那里 管治便要跟到那里
governance:n.管理;统治;支配;
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is, that one of the phenomenon of our time is the globalization of power, then it follows that one of the challenges of our time is to bring governance to the global space. 如果这是事实,那我相信 今日社会的其中一个现象 既是权力全球化 那随之而来的挑战,便应是 管治全球化
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent the more or less we are able to achieve that aim: to bring governance to the global space. 我相信未来的几十年 将会出现不同程度的骚乱 多少能够成就这个目标 将管治全球化
lesser:adj.较少的;次要的;更小的;adv.较少地;更小地;不及; extent:n.程度;范围;长度; more or less:或多或少;
Now notice, I'm not talking about government. 要注意,我谈的不是政府
I'm not talking about setting up some global democratic institution. 也不是成立 一些全球化的民主机构
democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的;
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen, is that this is unlikely to be done by spawning more U.N. institutions. 女士先生们, 顺道一提,我个人认为 成立更多联合国类机构 并不能把事办好
unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的; spawning:v.播种,产卵;大量生成(spawn的现在分词);n.产卵;增殖;
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it. 如果我们没有这联合国,我们必需成立一个
The world needs an international forum . 世界需要一个中介的国际论坛
forum:n.论坛,讨论会;法庭;公开讨论的广场;
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action. 去合法化国际的联合行动
legitimize:vt.使…合法;立为嫡嗣;
But when it comes to governance of the global space, my guess is this won't happen through the creation of more U.N. institutions. 但当涉及管治全球化时 我估计 通过更多的联合国类机构也没法达成
creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物;
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together and making treaty-based systems, treaty-based agreements, to govern that global space. 当权力聚拢的时候才会真正出现 建立一个以条约为基础的系统 以条约为基础的协议 来管治这国际舞台
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge . 如你有留意,你会看见它正在发生,慢慢浮现
emerge:v.浮现;显现;暴露;露出真相;
The World Trade Organization : treaty-based organization, entirely treaty-based, and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States, to account if necessary. 世界贸易组织就是条约为本的组织 完全以条约为本 在必要时,他的现有势力己足以制衡强国 如美国
Organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
Kyoto : the beginnings of struggling to create a treaty-based organization. 京都协议:努力成立 一个条约为本的组织的开始
Kyoto:n.京都(日本城市);
The G20: we know now that we have to put together an institution which is capable of bringing governance to that financial space for financial speculation . G20 （20国集团）: 现在我们知道我们要联合起来 组织一个有能力管治 国际金融间投机活动的机构
put together:..放在一起;组合;装配; capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的; speculation:n.投机;推测;思索;投机买卖;
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution. 这便是G20:一个条约为本的机构
Now there's a problem there, and we'll come back to it in a minute, which is that if you bring the most powerful together to make the rules in treaty-based institutions, to fill that governance space, then what happens to the weak who are left out? 现在,问题是, 我们回头再谈这个 如果你集中权力 去建立一个条约为本的机构 去填充管治空间 那,那些没参加的弱国怎么办呢
And that's a big problem, and we'll return to it in just a second. 这可是大问题 稍后再到回这话题
So there's my first message, that if you are to pass through these turbulent times more or less turbulently , then our success in doing that will in large measure depend on our capacity to bring sensible governance to the global space. 所以,我的第一要点是 如果你身处这混乱年代 不管混乱多还少 要能成功克服 很大程度取决于我们 把合理的管理 引进这国际舞台的能力
pass through:穿过;经历;经验;遭受; turbulently:adv.汹涌澎湃地;动荡地,骚动地; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力; sensible:adj.明智的; n.可感觉到的东西;
And watch that beginning to happen. 并守护它出现
My second point is, and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this about such a thing, but power is not just shifting vertically, it's also shifting horizontally . 我的第二要点是 我知道我不必向你们 说这种事 但是,权力不单是纵向移动的 它也横向移动
shifting:adj.不断移动的;流动的;v.转移;赶快;快速移动;变换;(shift的现在分词) horizontally:adv.水平地;地平地;
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations, has been civilizations gathered around seas -- with the first ones around the Mediterranean , the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic. 也许你会从文明进化史角度和我争论 文明起源于沿海地带 地中海沿岸是其中之一 西方最近一次的势力增长在大西洋沿岸
Mediterranean:n.地中海;adj.地中海的;
Well it seems to me that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking, away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard] 这我看来 我们正目睹一幕重要的权力转移 坦白说就是权力从大西洋沿岸国家出走
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; broadly:adv.明显地;宽广地;概括地;露骨地;粗鄙地;
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim . 到太平洋沿岸
Pacific rim:环太平洋地区;
Now that begins with economic power, but that's the way it always begins. 现在,首先转移的是经济 也是通常最先出现的
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies , the augmentation of military budgets occurring in the other growing powers in the world. 你已经见到 世界上其它正在兴起的势力 发展外交政策,增加国防预算
policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) augmentation:n.增加,增大;增加物; military:adj.军事的;军人的;适于战争的;n.军队;军人;
I think actually this is not so much a shift from the West to the East; something different is happening. 我认为 这不只是西方转移到东方 有些不一样的正出现
My guess is, for what it's worth, is that the United States will remain the most powerful nation on earth for the next 10 years, 15, but the context in which she holds her power has now radically altered; it has radically changed. 我估计是,姑且这样说 未来的十年,十五年 美国仍然是 地球上最强的国家 但他掌握权力的背景 已经彻底改变
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; radically:adv.根本上;彻底地;以激进的方式;
We are coming out of 50 years, most unusual years, of history in which we have had a totally mono-polar world, in which every compass needle for or against 这 50 年 史上最不一样的年头 完全单极的世界 所有政策方向 不管赞成或反对
compass:n.罗盘;指南针;圆规;范围;界限;v.理解;领悟;将…包围;成功办到 needle:n.针;针头;指针;缝针;v.穿过;刺激;拿针缝;拿针穿;
has to be referenced by its position to Washington -- a world bestrode by a single colossus . 都以华盛顿为马首 世界由一个大国带领
referenced:v.查阅;参考;给(书等)附参考资料;(reference的过去分词和过去式) colossus:n.巨像;巨人;巨大的东西;
But that's not a usual case in history. 这不是历史中常见的事
In fact, what's now emerging is the much more normal case of history. 事实上,现在在发生的 反而是历史常见
You're beginning to see the emergence of a multi-polar world. 你开始看到 多极世界的出现
emergence:n.出现,浮现;发生;露头; multi-polar:多极的;
Up until now, the United States has been the dominant feature of our world. 到目前为止 美国担当着世界的领导角色
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
They will remain the most powerful nation, but they will be the most powerful nation in an increasingly multi-polar world. 未来,他仍是最有力的强国 而且会在不断多极化的世界中 成为最强
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地;
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up -- in China, of course, though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth. 你开始见到其他权力中心冒起 中国,当然是其中之一 虽然个人认为,中国的崛起之路不会平顺
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择; ascent:n.上升;上坡路;登高; greatness:n.伟大;巨大;
It's going to be quite grumpy as China begins to democratize her society after liberalizing her economy . 经济自由化之后 社会开始民主化 这将引起不安
grumpy:adj.脾气暴躁的;性情乖戾的;n.脾气坏的人;爱抱怨的人; democratize:vt.使民主化;使大众化;vi.民主化;大众化; liberalizing:vt.使自由化;宽大;vi.自由化; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
But that's a subject of a different discussion. 但这是另一议题了
You see India, you see Brazil . 你看印度、巴西
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家);
You see increasingly that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans , much more like Europe in the 19th century. 你看到世界不断增加 对我们欧洲人来说 更像 19 世纪的欧洲
Europeans:n.欧洲人(European的复数);
Europe in the 19th century: a great British foreign secretary , Lord Canning, used to describe it as the "European concert of powers." 伟大的大不列颠外交大臣坎宁勋爵 经常形容19 世纪的欧洲 为 ”欧洲权力音乐会“
foreign secretary:n.(英国)外交大臣; Lord:n.(英国)贵族,大人,大臣;v.使成贵族;作威作福; describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
There was a balance, a five-sided balance. 它存在一个五方的平衡
Britain always played to the balance. 英国常在当中摆动促成它的平衡
If Paris got together with Berlin, 如巴黎和柏林联合时
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance . 英国便加入另一方的维也纳和罗马
counterbalance:n.平衡力;自动抵销;vt.使平衡;抵消;
Now notice, in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world, you have fixed alliances -- 现在留意 当世界被单一势力支配时 会出现固定的联盟
dominated:v.支配;控制;左右;影响;(dominate的过去式和过去分词) alliances:n.联盟,同盟;盟国(alliance的复数形式);联姻;
NATO , the Warsaw Pact . 如:北约组织、华沙公约国
NATO:abbr.(=theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization)[组]北约; Warsaw:n.华沙(波兰首都); Pact:n.协定;公约;条约;契约;
A fixed polarity of power means fixed alliances. 一个固定对立的权力 即固定的联盟
polarity:n.[物]极性;两极;对立;
But a multiple polarity of power means shifting and changing alliances. 但多股对立的权力 却代表联盟会转移和不断改变
multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数;
And that's the world we're coming into, in which we will increasingly see that our alliances are not fixed. 这便是我们即将进入的世界 在这我们将见到 盟国不断的离合
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said, "Britain has a common interest, but no common allies ." 大不列颠外交大臣坎宁曾说过 英国有共同利益 但没有同盟国
allies:n.盟友,支持者:v.与…结盟(ally的第三人称单数和复数)
And we will see increasingly that even we in the West will reach out, have to reach out, beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers to make alliances with others if we want to get things done in the world. 你将会不断见到 虽然我们身在西方 如果我们想在世界上完成任务 终究还是要 踏出大西洋安逸圈 和其它国家结盟
cozy:n.保温罩;v.蒙骗;抚慰;adj.舒适的;安逸的;
Note, that when we went into Libya , it was not good enough for the West to do it alone; we had to bring others in. 当你进入利比亚,要注意 西方国家不宜单独行动 我们要与其它国家一起
Libya:n.埃及以西的北非地方古名;利比亚;
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in. 我们需拉拢阿拉伯联盟
League:n.联赛;联盟;协会;种类;v.(使)结盟;(使)联合[团结];一鼻孔出气;组成联盟;
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times when the West has tried to do it themselves, and we haven't succeeded. 我估计伊朗和阿富汗事件 将是西方尝试自行解决的最后一次 但没有成功
Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
My guess is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years -- 我估计 我们已到达 400 年兴盛的末落之门
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire -- of the hegemony of Western power, 我说 400 年,因为它是代表西方霸权主义 西方制度和西方价值的
Ottoman:adj.土耳其帝国的(等于Turkish);土耳其人的;土耳其民族的;n.土耳其人; hegemony:n.霸权;领导权;盟主权;
Western institutions and Western values. 鄂图曼帝国的结束
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together, it could propose and dispose in every corner of the world. 你知道,到目前为止,如果西方能共同行动 它可以在地球任一角落 提出和处理
propose:v.建议;提议;求婚;打算; dispose:v.布置;安排;排列;使倾向于;
But that's no longer true. 但这事实将不会持久
Take the last financial crisis after the Second World War. 二次大战后 西方联合起来
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
The West got together -- the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank , International Monetary Fund -- the problem solved. 布列敦森林机构、世界银行、国际货币基金组织 一起应付金融危机 把问题解决
World Bank:n.世界银行(向处于困境需要资助的成员国贷款的国际机构); Monetary:adj.货币的;财政的;
Now we have to call in others. 现在,我们要邀请其他国家参与
Now we have to create the G20. 我们要建立 G20
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle of our Western friends. 我们要跨出 西方盟友的安逸圈
Let me make a prediction for you, which is probably even more startling . 让我来为你作一个预测 这可能更令你吃惊
prediction:n.预报;预言; startling:adj.惊人的;让人震惊的;极鲜亮的;v.使惊吓;使吓一跳;(startle的现在分词)
I suspect we are now reaching the end of 400 years when Western power was enough. 我怀疑我们已经到了 400 年王国的终点 当西方势力充分出现
suspect:n.犯罪嫌疑人;v.怀疑;不信任;adj.可疑的;
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course, they'll never get themselves involved in peace-making , multilateral peace-making around the world." 人们对我说,“中国,当然, 他们从不参与 维持和平行动,世界各地多国的维和行动
involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) peace-making:缔造和平; multilateral:adj.[数]多边的;多国的,多国参加的;
Oh yes? Why not? 喔是吗？为什么呢？
How many Chinese troops are serving under the blue beret , serving under the blue flag , serving under the U.N. command in the world today? 今日有多少中国军队 在蓝色贝蕾帽和蓝旗下服役 有多少在联合国司令部底下服务
beret:n.贝雷帽; blue flag:n.蓝旗(赛车中用以示意后方有领先车手试图超车);
3,700. 3700
How many Americans? 11. 美国呢？ 11
What is the largest naval contingent tackling the issue of Somali pirates? 在追击索马里海盗事件中 哪个国家的海军舰队规模最大
naval:adj.海军的;军舰的; contingent:n.代表团;一组与会者;小分队;adj.依情况而定的; tackling:n.装备,用具;扭住;v.处理;抓住;(tackle的现在分词); issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
The Chinese naval contingent. 是中国海军舰队
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation. 当然是中国,他们重视商易
They want to keep the sea lanes open. 要保持海上航道畅通
lanes:n.线路,跑道(lane复数形式);
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business with people with whom we do not share values, but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests. 愈来愈多地,我们不得不与一些 没有共同价值观 但在那刻,有共同兴趣的人通商
It's a whole new different way of looking at the world that is now emerging. 这是一个全新的方式 看待今日新兴的世界
And here's the third factor, which is totally different. 接下来,第三个 完全不同的因素
Today in our modern world, because of the Internet, because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here, everything is connected to everything. 今天我们的现代社会 因为互联网 因为人们在这里谈论各种事情 每件事都互相串联起来
We are now interdependent . 人们互相依赖
interdependent:adj.相互依赖的;互助的;
We are now interlocked , as nations, as individuals , in a way which has never been the case before, never been the case before. 互相连结 作为国家,个人 以一种前所未有的方法 连结起来
interlocked:adj.联锁的;v.连锁(interlock的过去分词);连结; individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
The interrelationship of nations, well it's always existed. 国与国之间的关系 呀,它总是存在的
interrelationship:n.相互关联;相互影响;
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations. 外交便是管理国与国之间的邦交
Diplomacy:n.外交;外交手腕;交际手段;
But now we are intimately locked together. 但现在,我们亲密地锁在一起
intimately:adv.熟悉地;亲切地;私下地;
You get swine flu in Mexico, it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport 24 hours later. 你在墨西哥染上猪流感 24 小时后,它便成为 戴高乐机场的问题
swine:n.猪;卑贱的人; Airport:n.机场;航空港;
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses . 雷曼兄弟倒闭,拖垮整个经济体
collapses:v.(突然)倒塌,坍塌;昏倒;坐下;(collapse的第三人称单数)
There are fires in the steppes of Russia, food riots in Africa. 俄罗斯大草原大火 非洲随之会出现食物骚乱
steppes:[地理]草原;[地理]干草原; riots:n.暴动(riot的复数);v.骚乱(riot的第三人称单数形式);闹事;
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected . 现在,所有人都被层层捆绑环扣
interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的;v.互相连接(interconnect的过去式);
And what that means is the idea of a nation state acting alone, not connected with others, not working with others, is no longer a viable proposition . 这代表着什么呢 一个国家闭关自守 不与人联系 不与人合作 不再是可行的提案
viable:adj.可行的;能养活的;能生育的; proposition:n.提议;待处理的问题;任务;(美国)法律修正议案;见解;命题;v.向...提议;
Because the actions of a nation state are neither confined to itself, nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself to control its own territory , because the effects outside the nation state are now beginning to affect what happens inside them. 因为,一个国家的行动 不再受限于该国本身 或他是否有足够的能力 控制他的属土 亦因为国外的影响 已开始反过来影响国内
confined:adj.狭窄的; v.限制(confine的过去式和过去分词); sufficient:adj.足够的;充分的; territory:n.领土,领域;范围;地域;版图;
I was a young soldier in the last of the small empire wars of Britain. 我年轻时是个军人 曾参与不列颠帝国最后一场小战事
At that time, the defense of my country was about one thing and one thing only: how strong was our army, how strong was our air force , how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies. 当时,我国的国防 只关注一件事,一件而已 就是我们的陆军有多强,我们的空军有多强 我们的海军有多强和我们的联合部队有多强
air force:n.空军; navy:n.海军;深蓝色的;
That was when the enemy was outside the walls. 那是敌人在墙外的年代
Now the enemy is inside the walls. 今天,敌人己在墙内
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country, 现在,如果我要谈国防
I have to speak to the Minister of Health because pandemic disease is a threat to my security, 我要去跟卫生部长说 因为流行病威胁我们的安全
Minister:n.部长;大臣;牧师;vi.执行牧师职务;辅助或伺候某人; pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture because food security is a threat to my security, 我要去跟农业部长说 因为食品安全威胁我们的安全
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure is now a point of attack for our enemies -- as we see from cyber warfare -- 我要跟工业部长说 因为我们脆弱的高端科技设施 在网络战争里 成为敌人的攻击点
fragility:n.脆弱;[力]易碎性;虚弱; hi-tech:adj.高技术的; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; cyber:adj.网络的,计算机的; warfare:n.战争;冲突;
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs because who has entered my country, who lives in that terraced house in that inner city has a direct effect on what happens in my country -- as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings . 我要跟内政部长说 因为他们已经进入我们国内 住在市中心区的排屋 对国内发生的事有直接影响 就像伦敦的七七爆炸案
terraced house:n.(成排相连房屋中的)一栋排房; inner city:n.(居民拥挤,住屋破旧的)市中心平民区;adj.市中心的; bombings:n.[军]轰炸,[军]投弹;v.轰击;引爆炸弹(bomb的ing形式);
It's no longer the case that the security of a country is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense. 国家安全已经不再单纯是 军队和国防部长的事
ministry:n.(政府的)部门;
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions. 它把所有部门扣连在一起
And this tells you something very important. 这现象告诉你一些非常重要的
It tells you that, in fact, our governments, vertically constructed , constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution -- vertical hierarchy, s pecializa tion of tasks, command structures -- have got the wrong str uctures co mpletely. 事实,它告诉你 我们政府的垂直架构 是依工业革命的经济模式建构 部门分工,上下分级, 上令下达的结构 已经完全不宜
constructed:v.修建;建造;组成;编制,绘制;(construct的过去分词和过去式) Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命;
You in business know that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen, is the network. 你从商贸里知道 女士先生们,我们当前的结构模式, 是网络
paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表;
It's your capacity to network that matters, both within your governments and externally . 在政府内外 结合联网的能力
externally:adv.外部地;外表上,外形上;
So here is Ashdown's third law. 这便是我的阿什当第三定律
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law because I haven't invented those yet; it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it? 顺道说,请别问我有关阿什当第一和第二定律 因为我还没草拟出来 第三定律,总是比较好听,对吗？
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age, where everything is connected to everything, the most important thing about what you can do is what you can do with others. 阿什当第三定律便是现世代 每件事都互相关连 取决你能干什么的最重要因素是 你究竟能联合他人干些什么
The most important bit about your structure -- whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment , whether you're a business -- is your docking points, your interconnectors, your capacity to network with others. 不管你是一个政府,还是军团 或是一盘生意 架构的重点 便是你的接入点,你的内部连结 你和其他人连系的能力
regiment:v.把…编成团;严格地管制;n.团;大量; docking:v.(使船)进港,停靠码头;对接;扣除;(dock的现在分词)
You understand that in industry; governments don't. 你从工作中了解了这点 但政府却不懂
But now one final thing. 最后要说一件事
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is -- that we are now locked together in a way that has never been quite the same before, then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other. 如果事情真是这样,女士先生们 我们现在正以一种前所未有的方式 串连一起 也就是说,我们有着相同的命运
destiny:n.命运,定数,天命;
Suddenly and for the very first time, collective defense, the thing that has dominated us as the concept of securing our nations, is no longer enough. 突然的,第一次的 一向认为集体防务 确保国家安全的观念 已经不再足够
collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词;
It used to be the case that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe; if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe; my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe. 过去通常 如果我的民族比别的民族强,我们是安全的 如果我的国家比别的国家强,我们是安全的 我们的联盟,如北约组织,比别的联盟强,我们是安全的
tribe:n.部落;族;宗族;一伙;
It is no longer the case. 现在已经不再是这回事
The advent of the interconnectedness and of the weapons of mass destruction means that, increasingly, 随着彼此联系的出现 和大量杀伤力武器的面世 日益意味着
advent:n.到来;出现;基督降临;基督降临节; interconnectedness:n.互联性; destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁;
I share a destiny with my enemy. 我和敌人面对同一处境
When I was a diplomat negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union in Geneva in the 1970s, we succeeded because we understood we shared a destiny with them. 当我七零年代驻日内瓦 做外交官时 我们成功与苏联达成裁军协议 因为我们明白 我们与他们在同一天空下
diplomat:n.外交家,外交官;有外交手腕的人;处事圆滑机敏的人; negotiating:v.谈判;磋商;协商;商定;达成协议;(negotiate的现在分词) disarmament:n.裁军; treaties:n.条约;协定问题(treaty的复数); Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人;
Collective security is not enough. 集体安全并不足够
Peace has come to Northern Ireland because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work. 北爱尔兰可以达至和平 是因为双方知道零和游戏不行
zero-sum game:零和博奕;
They shared a destiny with their enemies. 他们和敌人遭遇相同
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians, do not understand that they share a collective destiny. 中东和平的其中一大障碍 我想是以色列和巴勒斯坦双方 都不明白 他们面对着同一的命运
barriers:n.障碍;栅栏;篱笆墙(barrier的复数形式); Middle East:n.中东(包括亚洲西南部和非洲东北部); Israel:n.以色列(亚洲国家);犹太人,以色列人;
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen, what has been the proposition of visionaries and poets down the ages becomes something we have to take seriously as a matter of public policy . 女士先生们,非常突然地 无论是有远见的智者或敏感细腻的诗人 他们都建议 我们必须认真 视之为公共政策问题
visionaries:n.空想主义者;愿景者;远见者(visionary的复数); policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
I started with a poem, I'll end with one. 我以一首诗开始,亦将会以一首诗结束
The great poem of John Donne 's. 约翰.多恩的伟大诗篇
Donne:n.多恩;
'"Send not for whom the bell tolls ." 诗题是《没有人能独存》
tolls:n.通行费; vt.征收通行税;
The poem is called "No Man is an Island." 诗是这样写的
And it goes: "Every man's death affected me, for I am involved in mankind , send not to ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee ." 钟鸣知为谁 每个人的离去,都影响着 同为人的我 忐忑未敢问 钟究为谁鸣 钟为故人鸣
mankind:n.人类;男性; thee:pron.(第二人称单数的宾格)你;
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality . 约翰.多恩 - 一个道德的推崇者
recommendation:n.推荐;介绍;提议;正式建议; morality:n.道德;品行,美德;
For us, I think, part of the equation for our survival . 我想,对我们来说 那只是生存方程式的部分
equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式; survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
Thank you very much. 谢谢
(Applause) 鼓掌