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NoreenaHertz_2010S-_何时听从专家的意见_何时不_
It's Monday morning. 星期一的早晨
In Washington, the president of the United States is sitting in the oval office , assessing whether or not to strike Al Qaeda in Yemen. 在华盛顿 美国总统 坐在椭圆形办公室里, 思忖着是否 要打击也门 的基地组织。
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) oval office:n.总统办公室;(美国)总统及政府行政部门; assessing:v.评估,评定(性质、质量);估算,估定;(assess的现在分词) whether or not:是否…;
At number 10 Downing Street , 在唐宁街（英国首相府）
Downing Street:n.英国政府(英国首相官邸所在街道的名称);
David Cameron is trying to work out whether to cut more public sector jobs in order to stave off a double-dip recession . 大卫·卡梅隆（英国首相）正在考虑 是否削减更多公共部门职位 以对抗二次经济衰退。
public sector:n.公营部门;公共部门; stave:n.狭板;梯级;诗句;五线谱表;vt.延缓;击穿;凿孔于;压扁;vi.破碎;穿孔; double-dip:adj.双份的;二次的;vi.双重支薪(尤指政府雇员同时支领退伍军人薪饷者); recession:n.经济衰退;经济萎缩;退后;撤回;
In Madrid , Maria Gonzalez is standing at the door, listening to her baby crying and crying, trying to work out whether she should let it cry until it falls asleep or pick it up and hold it. 在马德里,玛丽亚?冈萨雷斯 站在门边 听着她的孩子不停哭泣 她想弄明白是该让孩子继续哭 哭到自己睡着 还是把孩子抱起来,哄一哄。
Madrid:n.马德里(西班牙首都); Maria:n.母驴;母马;[天文学]海(指月亮,火星表面的阴暗部分);
And I am sitting by my father's bedside in hospital, trying to work out whether I should let him drink the one and a half-liter bottle of water that his doctors just came in and said, "You must make him drink today," -- my father's been nil by mouth for a week -- or whether, by giving him this bottle, 在医院,我坐在父亲的病床旁, 想知道 是否让他喝下 那瓶1.5公升的水 刚才他的医生来到病房说: “你今天必须让他喝下去,” -- 我父亲饮食难咽已经一个星期了, 让他喝下这么一大瓶水,
bedside:n.床边,床旁;adj.床旁的,枕边的; half-liter:n.半升,500毫升; nil:n.无,零;
I might actually kill him. 简直是要了他的命。
We face momentous decisions with important consequences throughout our lives. 在我们的一生中,我们会面临着种种重要选择, 这些选择的结果 会产生重要影响。
momentous:adj.重要的;重大的; consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
And we have strategies for dealing with these decisions. 我们有各种途径来应对这些选择:
strategies:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;(strategy的复数)
We talk things over with our friends, we scour the Internet, we search through books. 跟朋友倾谈 上网搜索 或者查阅书籍
scour:vi.冲刷; vt.擦亮,洗涤; n.擦,冲刷; (畜类等的)腹泻;
But still, even in this age of Google and TripAdvisor and Amazon Recommends , it's still experts that we rely upon most -- especially when the stakes are high and the decision really matters. 但是 即便当今 我们有谷歌、到到网 和亚马逊推荐, 我们仍然 最信赖专家-- 尤其是在风险很高 选择非常重要更是如此。
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; Amazon:亚马逊;古希腊女战士; Recommends:v.推荐;介绍;劝告;建议;使受欢迎;(recommend的第三人称单数) rely upon:依靠;依赖;取决于; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; stakes:n.桩; v.以…打赌,拿…冒险;
Because in a world of data deluge and extreme complexity , we believe that experts are more able to process information than we can -- that they are able to come to better conclusions than we could come to on our own. 因为在一个拥有海量数据 和极其纷繁复杂的世界中, 我们相信专家 比我们更善于处理信息-- 他们给出的结论 往往比我们自己的结论要好。
deluge:n.洪水;泛滥;暴雨;vt.使泛滥;压倒; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; complexity:n.复杂性;难以理解的局势 process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; conclusions:n.结论,总结;决定;(conclusion的复数)
And in an age that is sometimes nowadays frightening or confusing , we feel reassured by the almost parental-like authority of experts who tell us so clearly what it is we can and cannot do. 在一个 让我们时常感到恐惧 有时困惑的时代, 我们只有把专家 当作父母一样的权威 来信赖 听从他们所说的话 遵循他们的建议做选择才感到安心。
frightening:adj.可怕的;骇人的;引起恐惧的;v.使惊吓;使惊恐(frighten的现在分词) confusing:adj.令人困惑; v.使糊涂; (confuse的现在分词) reassured:adj.使消除疑虑的;使放心的;v.使安心;再次保证(reassure的过去式); authority:n.权威;权力;当局;
But I believe that this is a big problem, a problem with potentially dangerous consequences for us as a society, as a culture and as individuals . 但我认为 这是一个大问题 甚至可能严重的影响到我们 整个社会 整个文化 及我们个人。
potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
It's not that experts have not massively contributed to the world -- of course, they have. 我并不是在否定专家 对世界作出的巨大贡献-- 他们当然有贡献。
massively:adv.大量地;沉重地;庄严地; contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词)
The problem lies with us; we've become addicted to experts. 问题出在我们身上-- 我们已变得过于依赖专家。
addicted:adj.上瘾的;上瘾;成瘾;有瘾;入迷;
We've become addicted to their certainty , their assuredness, their definitiveness, and in the process, we have ceded our responsibility, substituting our intellect and our intelligence for their supposed words of wisdom . 我们过于相信专家是千真万确、 十拿九稳、 永不出错, 在这一过程中 我们放弃了自己的责任 丢弃了自己的逻辑思维 和聪明才智 只相信专家的”真知灼见“。
certainty:n.必然;确实;确实的事情; ceded:vt.屈服;让与;割让(cede的过去式); substituting:n.取代;[数]代入;v.代替,取代(substitute的现在分词形式); intellect:n.智力,理解力;知识分子;思维逻辑领悟力;智力高的人; intelligence:n.智力;智慧;才智;(尤指关于敌国的)情报; supposed:adj.误信的;所谓的;v.认为;假设;设想;(suppose的过去分词和过去式) wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问;
We've surrendered our power, trading off our discomfort with uncertainty for the illusion of certainty that they provide. 我们放弃了自己的力量, 因为自己无法确定感到苦恼, 所以幻想通过 专家的确定性 来排解我们的苦恼。
surrendered:v.投降;(被迫)放弃,交出(surrender的过去分词和过去式) discomfort:n.不适,不安;不便之处;vt.使…不舒服;使…不安; uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠; illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰;
This is no exaggeration . 我没有夸张
exaggeration:n.夸张;夸大之词;夸张的手法;
In a recent experiment, a group of adults had their brains scanned in an MRI machine as they were listening to experts speak. 最近有一个实验 对一组成年人 的大脑进行磁共振扫描 同时让他们听专家讲话
The results were quite extraordinary . 扫描结果让人惊讶:
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的;
As they listened to the experts' voices, the independent decision-making parts of their brains switched off. 他们听专家讲话的同时 大脑负责独立决策的区域 就停止活动--
independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等); decision-making:n.决策;
It literally flat-lined. 屏幕上出现一条直线。
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
And they listened to whatever the experts said and took their advice, however right or wrong. 无论专家所说的话是什么 他们都全盘接受专家的建议,不分对错。
But experts do get things wrong. 但是专家也会犯错。
Did you know that studies show that doctors misdiagnose four times out of 10? 你们知道有研究表明 医生的诊断结果中 有40%的误诊率吗？
misdiagnose:vt.错误地或判断,断定;vi.错误地诊断;
Did you know that if you file your tax returns yourself, you're statistically more likely to be filing them correctly than if you get a tax adviser to do it for you? 你们知道有数据表明 如果你自己填纳税申报单, 自己往往计算得正确, 而找一个纳税顾问 来帮你报税 正确率要差很多吗？
statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上; adviser:n.顾问;劝告者;指导教师(等于advisor);
And then there's, of course, the example that we're all too aware of: financial experts getting it so wrong that we're living through the worst recession since the 1930s. 当然,我还能举出 大家更熟悉的例子: 正因为金融专家 大错特错, 所以我们陷入了自30年代以来 最糟糕的经济衰退。
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的;
For the sake of our health, our wealth and our collective security, it's imperative that we keep the independent decision-making parts of our brains switched on . 为了我们的健康, 繁荣 以及共同安全 我们必须要保持 大脑的独立决策能力 时时开启。
For the sake of:为了;为了…的利益; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词; imperative:adj.重要紧急的; n.重要紧急的事; switched on:开着(开关)的;
And I'm saying this as an economist who, over the past few years, has focused my research on what it is we think and who it is we trust and why. 我是一个经济学者, 在过去的几年中 集中研究 我们人类的想法 我们相信谁以及为什么相信他们。
But also -- and I'm aware of the irony here -- as an expert myself, as a professor, as somebody who advises prime ministers , heads of big companies, international organizations , but an expert who believes that the role of experts needs to change, that we need to become more open-minded , more democratic , and be more open to people rebelling against our points of view. 但同时-- 我也意识到比较讽刺的一点-- 我本身就是专家 也是一名教授, 我为许多首相、大公司的领导 和国际组织 提供建议; 但我自己却认为 专家的角色需要转变, 专家的思维应该更开放, 更听从公众的意见, 更加能容纳 那些质疑 我们观点的人。
irony:n.讽刺;反语;具有讽刺意味的事;adj.铁的;似铁的; advises:建议;通知; prime:adj.主要的; v.极好地; n.初期; v.使准备好; ministers:n.部长,大臣; v.辅助; (minister的第三人称单数和复数) organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构; open-minded:adj.虚心的;思想开明的;无偏见的; democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的; rebelling:v.反叛;反抗;造反;背叛(rebel的现在分词)
So in order to help you understand where I'm coming from, let me bring you into my world, the world of experts. 为了帮助大家了解 我的背景, 我先带大家了解下我的世界 专家的世界。
Now there are, of course, exceptions, wonderful, civilization-enhancing exceptions. 当然,现实中不乏例子表明 专家推动了人类文明的进步,
But what my research has shown me is that experts tend on the whole to form very rigid camps, that within these camps, a dominant perspective emerges that often silences opposition , that experts move with the prevailing winds, often hero-worshipping their own gurus . 但我的研究表明 专家整体上倾向于 形成非常顽固的阵营, 在每个阵营之内 有一个占主导地位的观点 常常压制其他的反对观点。 专家也都随波逐流 通常都追捧 自己那一派的泰斗。
on the whole:基本上,大体上;就全体而论; rigid:adj.严格的;僵硬的,死板的;坚硬的;精确的; dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性; perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的; emerges:vi.浮现;摆脱;暴露; opposition:n.反对党;对立;在野党;对抗; prevailing:adj.流行的;一般的;占优势的;v.盛行,流行;获胜;(prevail的现在分词形式) gurus:n.古鲁(指印度教等宗教的宗师或领袖);领袖;专家;
Alan Greenspan's proclamations that the years of economic growth would go on and on , not challenged by his peers , until after the crisis , of course. 阿兰·格林斯潘曾经宣称 经济增长会连年持续 不会停滞, 业内没人挑战他的权威, 但后来经济危机却席卷而来。
proclamations:n.公告;宣布;宣告;公布; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; on and on:继续不停地; peers:n.平辈,同事(peer的复数);v.凝视;比得上(peer的三单形式); crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
You see, we also learn that experts are located , are governed, by the social and cultural norms of their times -- whether it be the doctors in Victorian England, say, who sent women to asylums for expressing sexual desire, or the psychiatrists in the United States who, up until 1973, were still categorizing homosexuality as a mental illness. 你瞧, 我们要明白 专家也有地域性, 也受到 既定的社会文化准则 的制约-- 举几个例子: 英国维多利亚时代的医生 把表达自己性欲的女性 送到精神病院; 美国的精神科医生 一直到1973年 还把同性恋归结为 精神疾病
located:adj.位于; v.确定…的准确地点; (locate的过去分词和过去式) cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的; norms:n.[标准]标准,规范;基准(norm复数形式); asylums:n.收容所;避难所;流亡生物区(asylum的复数形式); expressing:v.表示;表达;表露;显而易见;(express的现在分词) psychiatrists:n.精神病学家;精神科医生;(psychiatrist的复数) categorizing:n.分类;分类题;v.分类(categorize的ing形式); homosexuality:n.同性恋; mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者;
And what all this means is that paradigms take far too long to shift , that complexity and nuance are ignored , and also that money talks -- because we've all seen the evidence of pharmaceutical companies funding studies of drugs that conveniently leave out their worst side effects, or studies funded by food companies of their new products, massively exaggerating the health benefits of the products they're about to bring by market. 所有这些表明 人们的思维范式 根深蒂固、迟于改变, 而且忽略了复杂性和差异性 还往往向金钱看齐-- 我们都看到过 制药公司 出资研究药品 却图方便对药品最大的副作用 置之不理, 还有一些食品公司 出资研究自己的新产品, 但却对他们准备推向市场的新产品 的健康疗效极其夸大。
paradigms:n.范例,模范(paradigm的复数形式); shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换; nuance:n.细微差别; ignored:v.忽视;对…不予理会;佯装未见;不予理睬;(ignore的过去分词和过去式) evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; pharmaceutical:adj.制药(学)的;n.药物; funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词) conveniently:adv.便利地;合宜地; funded:adj.提供资金的;v.提供资金;积存;提供资金偿付的本息;(fund的过去式); exaggerating:v.夸张;夸大;言过其实(exaggerate的现在分词)
The study showed that food companies exaggerated typically seven times more than an independent study. 研究表明,食品公司的研究结果 往往比独立研究要 夸大七倍
exaggerated:adj.夸张的,言过其实的;v.夸张,夸大(exaggerate的过去分词和过去式) typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地;
And we've also got to be aware that experts, of course, also make mistakes. 我们也要认识到 专家当然 也会犯错。
They make mistakes every single day -- mistakes borne out of carelessness . 他们每一天都会犯一些错误-- 往往是由于粗心引起的。
carelessness:n.粗心大意;
A recent study in the Archives of Surgery reported surgeons removing healthy ovaries , operating on the wrong side of the brain, carrying out procedures on the wrong hand, elbow , eye, foot, and also mistakes borne out of thinking errors. 《外科档案》杂志最近有一个研究 报道外科医生 摘除健康的卵巢, 做脑手术时弄错了左右, 也会搞错要动手术的是哪只手, 肘,眼睛或者脚; 他们还犯一些思维上的错误。
Archives:n.档案;档案馆;v.把…存档;(archive的第三人称单数和复数) Surgery:n.外科;外科手术;手术室;诊疗室; surgeons:n.外科医生;(surgeon的复数) ovaries:n.[解剖]卵巢,[植]子房(ovary复数形式); on the wrong side of:过了…岁;已过…岁;亏欠; procedures:n.程序;规程(procedure的复数); elbow:n.肘;弯头;肘状物;v.用肘推;挤进;讨价还价;
A common thinking error of radiologists for example -- when they look at CT scans -- is that they're overly influenced by whatever it is that the referring physician has said that he suspects the patient 's problem to be. 一个常见思维错误就是 放射科医生的诊断-- 他们看到病人的CT扫描, 就会参照转介医生 如何诊断病人的病症, 而他们的判断 就会极大的受到 先前诊断的影响。
radiologists:放射线学者;[特医]放射科医师(radiologist的名词复数); overly:adv.过度地;极度地; influenced:v.影响;对…起作用;支配;左右;(influence的过去分词和过去式) referring:v.引用;提到;将…归因于…;把…提交;(refer的现在分词) physician:n.[医]医师;内科医师; suspects:v.怀疑;不信任;(suspect的第三人称单数) patient:adj.有耐心的,能容忍的;n.病人;患者;
So if a radiologist is looking at the scan of a patient with suspected pneumonia , say, what happens is that, if they see evidence of pneumonia on the scan, they literally stop looking at it -- thereby missing the tumor sitting th ree inc hes below on the p atient's lungs. 所以如果一名放射科医生 接待一个被诊断为疑似肺炎 的病人,看着扫描结果, 可能有这种情况发生: 他们一旦看到屏幕上 有肺炎的症状, 就不会进一步观察-- 结果就忽略了 病人肺部几英寸以下 还有肿瘤。
suspected:v.怀疑;不信任;(suspect的过去分词和过去式) pneumonia:n.肺炎;
I've shared with you so far some insights into the world of experts. 目前为止我已经跟大家 分享了一些我对专家的看法
insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数);
These are, of course, not the only insights I could share, but I hope they give you a clear sense at least of why we need to stop kowtowing to them, why we need to rebel, and why we need to switch our independent decision-making capabilities on. 当然我不只想跟大家 分享这些想法 而是希望至少让大家明白 我们为什么要停止崇拜专家 为什么要质疑他们的想法 以及为什么要保持我们的 独立决策能力常启常新
kowtowing:vi.叩头;卑躬屈膝;n.叩头;
But how can we do this? 具体要怎样做呢？
Well for the sake of time, 因为时间有限
I want to focus on just three strategies. 我在这里主要讲三种方法
First, we've got to be ready and willing to take experts on and dispense with this notion of them as modern day apostles . 第一,我们应该自愿主动的 反对专家的意见 摒弃那种把他们当成现世圣人 的想法。
dispense:v.分配;分发;提供;配药; notion:n.观念;信念;理解; apostles:n.使徒(apostle的复数);传道者;倡导者;
This doesn't mean having to get a Ph.D. 这不是意味着你得成为
in every single subject, you'll be relieved to hear. 某个学科的博士 大家听到这句会松一口气
relieved:adj.释然的; v.缓解;
But it does mean persisting in the face of their inevitable annoyance when, for example, we want them to explain things to us in language that we can actually understand. 而是说,比如,专家难免会 表现的不耐烦 例如,当我们 想让专家用我们 能明白的话解释一些事情时。
persisting:v.坚持(persist的ing形式); in the face of:面对; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; annoyance:n.烦恼;可厌之事;打扰;
Why was it that, when I had an operation, my doctor said to me, " Beware , Ms. Hertz , of hyperpyrexia ," 为什么这么说呢,有一次我要做个手术, 我的医生跟我说, “赫兹小姐,小心体温过高的 症状,”
Beware:v.小心;提防; Hertz:n.[物]赫兹(频率单位); hyperpyrexia:n.[临床]高烧;体温过高;
when he could have just as easily said watch out for a high fever? 他可以简单的说, 小心别发高烧。
watch out for:戒备;密切注意;留意;注意;
You see, being ready to take experts on is about also being willing to dig behind their graphs, their equations , their forecasts , their prophecies , and being armed with the questions to do that -- questions like: 听从专家的意见 也就是要主动的 探寻他们给出的图表, 等式,诊断,估计等等 背后真正的涵义, 还要自己准备问一些问题, 比如:
equations:n.方程式;等式;均等;均势(equation的复数形式); forecasts:n.[气象][通信]预测; v.预言; prophecies:n.预言(prophecy的复数);
What are the assumptions that underpin this? 你是基于何种推断得出这种观点？
assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数) underpin:vt.巩固;支持;从下面支撑;加强…的基础;
What is the evidence upon which this is based? 推断的依据是什么？
What has your investigation focused on? 你的检查是集中于哪方面,
And what has it ignored? 忽略了什么方面？
It recently came out that experts trialing drugs before they come to market typically trial drugs first, primarily on male animals and then primarily on men. 最近有研究表明, 有些专家对即将上市药品 进行测试的时候 他们通常首先 在雄性动物身上试验, 然后在男性身上试验。
recently:adv.最近;新近; trialing:跟踪;跟踪(trial的变体);拖拽(trial的变体);伸展出;流出(trial的变体); primarily:adv.首先;主要地,根本上;
It seems that they've somehow overlooked the fact that over half the world's population are women. 他们好像忽略了一个事实: 世界上超过一半的人口是女性。
somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地; overlooked:n.被忽视;v.忽视(overlook的过去式和过去分词形式);忽略;俯瞰;
And women have drawn the short medical straw , because it now turns out that many of these drugs don't work nearly as well on women as they do on men -- and the drugs that do work well work so well that they're actively harmful for women to take. 所以女性在医药测试中总是倒霉的一方, 因为现在证明许多药品 对男性有效 对女性效果却不大, 甚至由于药品药性过于强大,女性服用后 反而对身体造成很大伤害。
straw:n.稻草; adj.稻草的;
Being a rebel is about recognizing that experts' assumptions and their methodologies can easily be flawed . 所以质疑专家实际上是 认识到专家的推断, 他们采用的方法 也往往是有缺陷的,
recognizing:v.认识;认出;承认;接受,赞成(recognize的现在分词) methodologies:n.[经]方法论(methodology的复数形式); flawed:adj.有缺陷的;有瑕疵的;有裂纹的;
Second, we need to create the space for what I call managed dissent . 第二, 我们需要营造出一种空间 ”提出管理性异见“。
dissent:vi.不同意;不信奉国教;n.异议;(大写)不信奉国教;
If we are to shift paradigms, if we are to make breakthroughs , if we are to destroy myths , we need to create an environment in which expert ideas are battling it out, in which we're bringing in new, diverse , discordant , heretical views into the discussion, fearlessly , in the knowledge that progress comes about, not only from the creation of ideas, but also from their destruction -- and also from the knowledge that, by surrounding ourselves by divergent , discordant , heretical views, all the research now shows us that this actually makes us smarter. 如果我们要转变思维和行为模式, 取得突破, 打破神秘, 我们就需要培养出一种氛围, 让专家的想法打出胜负, 让我们大胆地提出各种新的 不和谐的声音和离经叛道的想法, 在参与讨论的过程中 我们要无所畏惧。 因为我们知道进步不仅来自于 提出新构想, 也来源于解构旧想法; 因为我们知道 我们必须敞开心胸接受各种 不和谐的声音,接受 离经叛道的想法。 所有研究表明只有这样 我们才会变得更聪明。
breakthroughs:突破; myths:神话;谬见; diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; discordant:adj.不和谐的,刺耳的;不一致的; heretical:adj.异端的;异教的; fearlessly:adv.勇敢地;大胆地; creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物; destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁; divergent:adj.相异的,分歧的;散开的;
Encouraging dissent is a rebellious notion because it goes against our very instincts , which are to surround ourselves with opinions and advice that we already believe or want to be true. 鼓励不和谐的声音其实很反叛, 因为这与我们的本能背道而驰, 我们的本能是只接受 那些我们已经深信或者 主观上想去相信 的意见和建议。
rebellious:adj.反抗的;造反的;难控制的; instincts:n.本能;天性;直觉;(instinct的复数)
And that's why I talk about the need to actively manage dissent. 这也就是为什么我提倡我需要 积极的管理异见。
Google CEO Eric Schmidt is a practical practitioner of this philosophy . 谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特 在现实中就秉承 这种哲学理念
practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课; practitioner:n.开业者,从业者,执业医生; philosophy:n.哲学;哲理;人生观;
In meetings, he looks out for the person in the room -- arms crossed, looking a bit bemused -- and draws them into the discussion, trying to see if they indeed are the person with a different opinion, so that they have dissent within the room. 开会时,他就望向房间里的人-- 他的手臂端着,神色些许困惑-- 他让每个人参与到讨论中来, 看看这些人能否真正 提出不同的意见, 这样会议室内才有各种不同的声音。
bemused:adj.困惑的;发呆的;v.使发呆(bemuse的过去式和过去分词);
Managing dissent is about recognizing the value of disagreement, discord and difference. 管理异见就是 认识到让各种不同声音, 不同意见 百家争鸣的价值性。
But we need to go even further. 但我们需要更进一步,
We need to fundamentally redefine who it is that experts are. 从根本上重新定义 专家的概念
fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 redefine:vt.重新定义;
The conventional notion is that experts are people with advanced degrees, fancy titles, diplomas , best-selling books -- high-status individuals. 传统概念 将专家定义为那些有 高等学位,有名头衔 持各种证书或 写过畅销书的人-- 都是有名望的人。
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的; advanced:adj.先进的; v.前进; (advance的过去式和过去分词形式) fancy:n.幻想; adj.想象的; v.想象; diplomas:n.学位证书;毕业文凭;执照(diploma的复数); best-selling:adj.最畅销的;畅销作品的;n.畅销品;
But just imagine if we were to junk this notion of expertise as some sort of elite cadre and instead embrace the notion of democratized expertise -- whereby expertise was not just the preserve of surgeons and CEO's, but also shop girls -- yeah. 但是请想象一下 如果我们抛弃 把专家的意见当成 金科玉律的想法, 相反,勇于接受让专业知识 走向平民化的想法, 这样专业知识就不仅仅是外科医生 或首席执行官的独有领域, 也可以由店员传授给你。
expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见; elite:n.精英;精华;杰出人物; cadre:n.干部;基础结构;骨骼; embrace:n.拥抱,怀抱;v.拥抱;乐意采纳(思想、建议等);信奉;包括; democratized:vt.使民主化;使大众化;vi.民主化;大众化; whereby:adv.凭借;通过…;借以;与…一致; preserve:vt.保存;保护;维持;腌;禁猎;n.保护区;禁猎地;加工成的食品;
Best Buy, the consumer electronics company, gets all its employees -- the cleaners, the shop assistants, the people in the back office , not just its forecasting team -- to place bets , yes bets , on things like whether or not a product is going to sell well before Christmas, on whether customers' new ideas should be taken on by the company, on whether a project will come in on time. 美国百思买是一家 消费型电子产品公司, 它鼓励公司所有员工 无论是保洁员,店员,还是 后勤人员参都与公司决策, 而不是把这些任务 留给预测团队一力承担。 员工共同参谋比如 某一产品能否在圣诞节前畅销, 或者顾客提出的新想法 是否可以被公司采纳, 某个项目能否 及时进行等等。
consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者; electronics:n.电子学;电子工业; back office:n.后勤部门; forecasting:n.预测;v.预言;作预告(forecast的ing形式); bets:v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿(bet的第三人称单数)
By leveraging and by embracing the expertise within the company, 通过利用 和鼓励专业知识 在公司里普及,
leveraging:v.利用贷款进行投机;(leverage的现在分词) embracing:n.拥抱;v.拥抱,包含;(embrace的现在分词)
Best Buy was able to discover, for example, that the store that it was going to open in China -- its big, grand store -- was not going to open on time. 百思买得以发现,例如, 公司计划在中国开业的 大型百思买商店 却不能按期开业,
Because when it asked its staff, all its staff, to place their bets on whether they thought the store would open on time or not, a group from the finance department placed all their chips on that not happening. 因为当时公司问员工, 让所有的员工下注 猜中国的商店能否如期开业, 公司财政部的一组员工 全部都投了否定票 认为不会如期开业。
finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; chips:炸土豆条(chip的复数)
It turned out that they were aware, as no one else within the company was, of a technological blip that neither the forecasting experts, nor the experts on the ground in China, were even aware of. 结果证明这组员工 在公司其他部门都没有意识到时候 对技术性的故障已有先见之明, 而对这种故障无论是预测专家 还是在公司在中国的专家 都没料到。
technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的; blip:n.(在雷达屏幕显示出的)物体光点;
The strategies that I have discussed this evening -- embracing dissent, taking experts on, democratizing expertise, rebellious strategies, are strategies that I think would serve us all well to embrace as we try to deal with the challenges of these very confusing, complex, difficult times. 今天晚上 我跟大家探讨的策略-- 欢迎不和谐声音、 反对专家的意见、 让专业知识走向平民化 接受不同的意见, 我认为这些策略 能让我们游刃有余地 应对当今这个迷乱、复杂 艰难的时代为我们 带来的挑战。
democratizing:民主化;
For if we keep our independent decision-making part of our brains switched on, if we challenge experts, if we're skeptical , if we devolve authority, if we are rebellious, but also if we become much more comfortable with nuance, uncertainty and doubt, and if we allow our experts to express themselves using those terms too, we will set ourselves up much better for the challenges of the 21st century. 如果我们保持 大脑的决策功能 时时开启, 如果我们挑战专家,敢于质疑, 瓦解所谓权威, 如过我们能提出反对声音, 同时, 如果我们能更加坦然接受 所面对的差异、 不确定性和质疑, 如果我们也允许 专家能够以这些方式 来阐释他们自己, 我们就能够更好的 武装自己, 应对21世纪的挑战。
skeptical:adj.怀疑的;怀疑论的,不可知论的; devolve:vi.被移交;转让;vt.转移;移交;使滚下;衰落;
For now, more than ever, is not the time to be blindly following, blindly accepting, blindly trusting. 现在比以往 更需要我们 抛弃忙从、 盲目接受 盲目相信。
blindly:adv.盲目地;轻率地;摸索地;
Now is the time to face the world with eyes wide open -- yes, using experts to help us figure things out, for sure -- 现在正需要我们 睁大眼睛看世界-- 当然也需要专家帮助 我们解决问题--
I don't want to completely do myself out of a job here -- but being aware of their limitations and, of course, also our own. 我还不想让自己彻底失业-- 但是,要意识到 专家的局限性 还有我们自己的局限性。
limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式);
Thank you. 谢谢大家
(Applause) （掌声）