返回首页

NiallFerguson_2011G-_走向兴盛的六大致命程序_
Let's talk about billions. 我们来说说数以亿计
Let's talk about past and future billions. 我们来说说 过去和将来的数以亿计
We know that about 106 billion people have ever lived. 众所周知 在地球上生活过的人 有1060亿
And we know that most of them are dead. 当然大多数人已经不在人世了
And we also know that most of them live or lived in Asia. 我们还知道 他们大多数人生活在或曾经生活在亚洲
And we also know that most of them were or are very poor -- did not live for very long. 我们还知道 他们大多数人非常贫穷 寿命不长
Let's talk about billions. 我们来说说数以亿计
Let's talk about the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth in the world today. 我们来说说 现今世界 高达195万亿美元的财富
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
We know that most of that wealth was made after the year 1800. 这些财富的大部分 是从1800年开始被创造的
And we know that most of it is currently owned by people we might call Westerners : 而现在 这些财富的 主要拥有者 是西方人
currently:adv.当前;一般地; Westerners:n.西方人(westerner的复数);
Europeans , North Americans, Australasians. 欧洲人 北美人和澳洲人
Europeans:n.欧洲人(European的复数);
19 percent of the world's population today, 仅占世界人口19%的西方人
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth. 拥有了全球三分之二的财富
two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地;
Economic historians call this "The Great Divergence ." 经济历史学家 称之为“大分流”
Economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; Divergence:n.分歧;
And this slide here is the best simplification of the Great Divergence story 这个幻灯片 能够最好地展示 简化版的
simplification:n.简化;简化的事物;
I can offer you. “大分流”故事
It's basically two ratios of per capita GDP, per capita gross domestic product , so average income. 上面是两个 人均GDP比率 也就是人均国内生产总值 平均收入
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; ratios:n.比率(ratio的复数); v.以比率表示; per capita:adj.每人的;人均的; gross domestic product:na.国内生产总值;
One, the red line, is the ratio of British to Indian per capita income. 红色的那条线 代表英国和印度的 人均收入之比
And the blue line is the ratio of American to Chinese. 而蓝色那条 则是美国与中国的人均收入之比
And this chart goes back to 1500. 这幅图追溯到1500年
And you can see here that there's an exponential Great Divergence. 大家可以看到 大分流的走势
exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数;
They start off pretty close together. 这两条曲线一开始非常接近
In fact, in 1500, the average Chinese was richer than the average North American. 事实上 在1500年 中国人普遍比美国人富有
When you get to the 1970s, which is where this chart ends, the average Briton is more than 10 times richer than the average Indian. 而到了二十世纪70年代 也就是这幅图时间的结点 英国人平均比印度人 富十倍
Briton:n.英国人;大不列颠人;
And that's allowing for differences in the cost of living . 这就产生了 生活消费的差异
cost of living:adj.生活费的;
It's based on purchasing power parity . 这是建立在购买力对等基础上的
purchasing power:n.(人民的)购买力;(货币的)购买力; parity:n.平价;同等;相等;
The average American is nearly 20 times richer than the average Chinese by the 1970s. 到了二十世纪70年代 美国人平均 比中国人 富二十倍
So why? 这是为什么？
This wasn't just an economic story. 这并不仅仅只是一个经济问题
If you take the 10 countries that went on to become the Western empires, in 1500 they were really quite tiny -- five percent of the world's land surface, 16 percent of its population, maybe 20 percent of its income. 看看这十个 后来成为 帝国的西方国家 在1500年时 这些国家都很小 仅占全球土地面积的5% 人口仅占世界人口的16% 而收入在全球仅占20%
By 1913, these 10 countries, plus the United States, controlled vast global empires -- 58 percent of the world's territory , about the same percentage of its population, and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share of global economic output . 到了1913年 包括美国在内的这十个国家 控制了全球大片土地 占据了全球58%的势力范围 而人口也占到了世界人口的58%左右 创造了全球 近四分之三的财富
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; territory:n.领土,领域;范围;地域;版图; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; three-quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三; output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出;
And notice, most of that went to the motherland, to the imperial metropoles, not to their colonial possessions . 请注意 大部分财富都流入了这些国家 流入了帝国的大都市里 而不是殖民地
imperial:adj.帝国的;皇帝的;至高无上的;威严的;n.纸张尺寸;特等品; colonial:n.殖民地居民;adj.殖民地的,殖民的; possessions:n.拥有;个人财产;私人物品;控球状态;(possession的复数)
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism -- though many people have tried to do so -- for two reasons. 你不能仅仅责怪帝国主义 尽管很多人这么做 原因有二
imperialism:n.帝国主义;
One, empire was the least original thing that the West did after 1500. 第一 1500年以后 帝国到处都是
original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的;
Everybody did empire. 大家都建立帝国
They beat preexisting Oriental empires like the Mughals and the Ottomans . 之前建立的东方帝国被打败了 例如莫卧儿帝国和奥斯曼帝国
preexisting:adj.先前存在的;先于…而存在的; Oriental:adj.东方的;东方人的;n.东方人; Ottomans:n.垫脚软凳(ottoman的复数);
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation for the Great Divergence. 所以 大分流并不见得 是帝国造成的
In any case , as you may remember, the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s, some considerable time after decolonization . 不知你们是否记得 到了二十世纪七十年代 大分流在殖民时期结束后又过了很长一段时间最终走到了尽头
In any case:无论如何; zenith:n.顶峰;顶点;最高点;n.(Zenith)人名;(英)齐尼思;n.真力时(瑞士名表); considerable:adj.相当大的;重要的,值得考虑的; decolonization:n.非殖民地化,殖民地自治化;
This is not a new question. 这不是一个新问题了
Samuel Johnson, the great lexicographer , 著名词典编纂家 塞缪尔·约翰
lexicographer:n.词典编纂者;
[posed] it through his character Rasselas in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia," 通过他1759年所著小说 《幸福谷－－拉塞拉斯王子的故事》中的人物拉塞拉斯
novel:adj.新奇的;异常的;n.小说;
published in 1759. 提出了这个问题
'"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful; or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa for trade or conquest , cannot the Asiaticks and Africans invade their coasts, plant colonies in their ports, and give laws to their natural princes? “ 欧洲人何以如此强大？ 他们为何能够轻而易举地来到亚洲和非洲 进行贸易或征服 而亚洲人和非洲人 为何无力入侵他们的海岸线 化其通商口岸为殖民地 并控制他们的王子呢？
conquest:n.征服;占领;占领(或征服)的地区;(爱情或性方面)被俘虏的人; invade:v.侵犯;侵略;侵袭;干扰;
The same wind that carries them back would bring us thither ?" 既然是同一股风 为何它只将他们送回家 却将我们送去他们那里？”
thither:adv.向那方;到那边;adj.对岸的;那边的;
That's a great question. 这个问题问得很好
And you know what, it was also being asked at roughly the same time by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world -- like Ibrahim Muteferrika, an Ottoman official , the man who introduced printing, very belatedly , to the Ottoman Empire -- who said in a book published in 1731, 无独有偶 几乎在同一时期 西方国家之外的人 其中有伊布拉希姆·穆特费黎加 一位奥斯曼帝国的大官 也是后来将印刷术 引入奥斯曼帝国的人 在他1731年出版的一本书里
roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地; official:adj.官方的;正式的;公务的;n.官员;公务员;高级职员; belatedly:adv.延迟地;延续地;
'"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past compared with Muslim nations begin to dominate so many lands in modern times and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?" 他说:“ 与穆斯林国家相比, 基督教国家原先显得弱不经风, 但他们何以在现代统治了大片土地, 甚至战胜了曾经盛极一时的奥斯曼帝国？”
compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) dominate:vt.控制;支配;占优势;在…中占主要地位;vi.占优势;处于支配地位; victorious:adj.胜利的;凯旋的;
Unlike Rasselas, 和拉塞拉斯不同
Muteferrika had an answer to that question, which was correct. 穆特费黎加对问题做了回答 答案还是正确的
He said it was "because they have laws and rules invented by reason." 他说:“因为他们制定了 合理的法律法规。”
It's not geography. 这跟地理无关
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence in terms of geography. 你们可能认为我们能从地理的角度 解释大分流
We know that's wrong, because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century to see if geography mattered more than institutions . 这个思路是错误的 我们在20世纪进行了两次自然试验 来证明 地理和制度究竟哪个作用更大
conducted:v.组织;安排;实施;执行;指挥;带领;引导;(conduct的过去分词和过去式) institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
We took all the Germans, we divided them roughly in two, and we gave the ones in the East communism , and you see the result. 我们把德国 分成了两部分 在东德推行共产主义 结果大家都看到了
communism:n.共产主义;
Within an incredibly short period of time, people living in the German Democratic Republic produced Trabants, the Trabbi, one of the world's worst ever cars, while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz. 在极短的一段时间里 东德人 生产了卫星牌汽车 世界上性能最差的车型之一 而西德人却生产出了梅赛德斯奔驰
incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; Democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的;
If you still don't believe me, we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula . 这如果还不足以说明问题 我们又在朝鲜半岛进行了试验
Korean:n.朝鲜族;韩国人;朝鲜话;adj.朝鲜的;朝鲜族的;朝鲜话的; Peninsula:n.半岛;
And we decided we'd take Koreans in roughly the same geographical place with, notice, the same basic traditional culture, and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism. 我们决定 将生活在同一地理位置 拥有共同文化习俗的朝鲜人 分为两部分 并在北朝鲜实行共产主义
geographical:adj.地理的;地理学的; traditional:传统的,惯例的, Northerners:n.北方人;美国北方人;(northerner的复数)
And the result is an even bigger divergence in a very short space of time than happened in Germany. 结果 朝韩两方 在更短的时间内 出现了大分流,比起德国的更甚
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly , but in almost every other respect, it's a huge divergence. 我承认 他们边防军制服的款式区别不大 但在其它方面 双方存在极大差异
uniform:adj.统一的;一致的;相同的;始终如一的;n.制服;v.使穿制服;使成一样; admittedly:adv.公认地;无可否认地;明白地;
Which leads me to think that neither geography nor national character, popular explanations for this kind of thing, are really significant . 这让我不得不想到 地理 国家特征 以及其它主流解释 都站不住脚
significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
It's the ideas. 真正发挥作用的是思想
It's the institutions. 是制度
This must be true because a Scotsman said it. 这千真万确 这可是一位苏格兰人说的
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED. 我想我是这里唯一的苏格兰人
Edinburgh:n.爱丁堡(英国城市名);
So let me just explain to you that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman. 我来解释一下 世界上最聪明的人是一个苏格兰人
He was Adam Smith -- not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery -- though he is very smart indeed. 他就是亚当·斯密 不是比利·康诺利或肖恩·康纳利 虽然他也很聪明
(Laughter) （众人笑）
Smith -- and I want you to go and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile; it's a wonderful statue -- 斯密 你们都应该 到他在皇家麦尔大道的雕像前鞠一躬 这座雕像非常宏伟
statue:n.雕像;塑像;铸像;v.用雕像装饰; Royal:adj.国王的;女王的;皇家的;n.王室成员;
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations" 斯密在1776年发表了
published in 1776 -- that's the most important thing that happened that year ... 《国富论》 这可是当年最了不起的历史事件
(Laughter) （众人笑）
You bet . 难道不是吗
bet:n.打赌;赌注;预计;估计;v.下赌注(于);用…打赌;敢说;八成儿;
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ... 虽然当时我们一些次要的殖民地出了点问题
minor:adj.未成年的; n.未成年人; vi.副修;
(Laughter) （众人笑）
'"China seems to have been long stationary , and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions. 他说:“中国似乎已经停滞很久了, 也许在很久以前 中国创造财富的能力已经发挥到了极致, 而这取决于该国法律和制度的性质。
stationary:adj.固定的;静止的;定居的;常备军的;n.不动的人;驻军; acquired:adj.习得的; v.获得; (acquire的过去分词和过去式) complement:n.补语;余角;补足物;vt.补足,补助; consistent:adj.始终如一的,一致的;坚持的;
But this complement may be much inferior to what, with other laws and institutions, the nature of its soil, climate, and situation might admit of." 但是 如果中国采用其它形式的法律和制度 那么这一能力 反而无法在同样的土壤,气候和条件下 得到完全发挥。”
inferior:adj.较差的; n.不如别人的人;
That is so right and so cool. 这说得一点不假
And he said it such a long time ago. 在那么久以前 他就说出了这番话
But you know, this is a TED audience, and if I keep talking about institutions, you're going to turn off. 但是 我面对的是TED观众 如果我继续谈论制度 你们可能就听不下去了
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand. 所以 我要把它翻译成通俗易懂的语言
translate:v.翻译;被翻译;被译成;(使)转变;
Let's call them the killer apps. 我们就把这些制度称作“致命” 应用程序吧
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps that set the West apart from the rest. 我会逐一介绍六个“致命”应用程序 解释它们如何让西方脱颖而出
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone, in the sense that they look quite simple. 它们就像你手机上的应用程序 因为它们都很容易上手
They're just icons; you click on them. 它们就像一个个图标 手指一点就行了
But behind the icon, there's complex code. 然而在图标背后 则是复杂的程序
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
It's the same with institutions. 制度也是如此
There are six which I think explain the Great Divergence. 我认为 这六个应用程序 能够解释大分流的形成
One, competition . 第一 竞争
competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛;
Two, the scientific revolution. 第二 科技革命
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
Three, property rights. 第三 产权
Four, modern medicine. 第四 现代医药
Five, the consumer society. 第五 消费者导向社会
consumer:n.[经]消费者;[生,生态]消费者;
And six, the work ethic . 第六 职业道德
ethic:n.伦理;道德规范;adj.伦理的;道德的(等于ethical);
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at, or try and boil it down to just four, but you'll lose. 你可以玩这个游戏看看我有没有漏掉什么 或者试试看能不能砍掉两个 但是你输定了
(Laughter) （众人笑）
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this, synthesizing the work of many economic historians in the process. 通过综合经济历史学家的观点 我来简短解释一下 我的意思
briefly:adv.简要地;简短地;暂时地; synthesizing:v.合成;(音响)合成;综合;(synthesize的现在分词)
Competition means, not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500, but within each of these units, there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns . 竞争意味着 1500年 欧洲不仅拥有100多个政治单位 而在这些单位中 既有组织间的竞争 又有主权国家之间的竞争
corporations:n.[贸易]公司,[经]企业(corporation的复数形式); as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; sovereigns:君主;至高无上的;具有独立主权的;
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation, existed in the 12th century. 公司集团的鼻祖 伦敦金融城集团 存在于12世纪
Nothing like this existed in China, where there was one monolithic state covering a fifth of humanity , and anyone with any ambition had to pass one standardized examination, which took three days and was very difficult and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters and very complex Confucian essay writing. 中国没有这样的制度 中国的人口占世界总人口的五分之一 国家实现中央集权制度 胸怀大志的人 必须通过统一的科举考试 一考就是三天 考试难度很大 要求记忆大量汉字 还要写繁冗复杂的儒家文章
monolithic:adj.整体的;巨石的,庞大的;完全统一的;n.单块集成电路,单片电路; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; ambition:n.追求的目标;野心;志向;抱负; standardized:adj.标准的; v.使合乎标准; involved:adj.有关的; v.涉及; (involve的过去式和过去分词) memorizing:n.记忆;熟记;v.熟记;纪念(memorize的现在分词); Confucian:adj.孔子的,儒家的;儒家学说的;n.儒家,儒家学者;孔子的门徒;
The scientific revolution was different from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world in a number of crucial ways, the most important being that, through the experimental method, it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before. 科技革命与东方的科学成就 在很多重要方面 都有不同 其中最大的不同之处 就是科技革命通过实验性方法 让人们用前所未见的方式掌控自然
crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; experimental:adj.实验的;根据实验的;试验性的;
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application of Newtonian physics to ballistics . 本杰明·罗宾斯将牛顿物理学运用到弹道研究 就是个很好的例子
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; ballistics:n.发射学,弹道学;
Once you do that, your artillery becomes accurate . 这么做 能够保证炮弹打击的精准度
artillery:n.火炮;大炮;炮队;炮术; accurate:adj.精确的;
Think of what that means. 这意味着什么
That really was a killer application . 这个应用程序果然厉害
killer application:n.杀手级应用程序(促使人们购买或使用其操作系统等的受欢迎计算机程序);
(Laughter) （众人笑）
Meanwhile , there's no scientific revolution anywhere else. 同时 科技革命只发生在西方
Meanwhile:adv.同时,其间;n.其间,其时;
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe, but there's no scientific revolution there. 奥斯曼帝国离欧洲并不远 而这里并没有发生科技革命
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory , because it's considered blasphemous to inquire into the mind of God. 该国政府拆毁了科学家达兹·艾-丁的天文观测台 认为该观测台窥视上帝 亵渎圣灵
demolish:v.拆毁;(意外)毁坏;推翻;轻易而彻底地打败; observatory:n.天文台;气象台;瞭望台; blasphemous:adj.亵渎神明的;不敬神的; inquire into:调查,探究;
Property rights: It's not the democracy , folks; it's having the rule of law based on private property rights. 产权 而不是民主 同志们 通过法律管理私有知识产权
democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治;
That's what makes the difference between North America and South America . 北美洲和南美洲 为何如此不同
North America:n.北美洲; South America:n.南美洲;
You could turn up in North America having signed a deed of indenture saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years. 你到北美洲去 签一个契约 说:“我愿意无偿工作五年。
deed:n.行动;功绩;证书;[法]契据;vt.立契转让; indenture:n.契约;合同;vt.以契约约束;
You just have to feed me." 你只要管我饭吃就行。”
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land. 而五年之后 你得到了一百公顷的土地
That's the land grant on the bottom half of the slide. 这张幻灯片下面的就是 土地赠与书
grant:v.授予;允许;承认;同意;n.拨款;[法]授予物;
That's not possible in Latin America where land is held onto by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors . 但在拉丁美洲 这是不可能的 这里的土地 都集中在极少数西班牙征服者后裔手上
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区); elite:n.精英;精华;杰出人物; descended:adj.出身于...的;从一个祖先传下来的; conquistadors:n.征服者(conquistador的复数形式);
And you can see here the huge divergence that happens in property ownership between North and South. 你们看 南北美洲 由于产权不同而出现了大分流
Most people in rural North America owned some land by 1900. 到1900年为止 北美洲的大部分人都拥有了土地
rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的;
Hardly anyone in South America did. 而在南美洲 拥有土地的人寥寥无几
That's another killer app. 这又是一个“致命”应用程序
Modern medicine in the late 19th century began to make major breakthroughs against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people. 19世纪末期 现代医药 在治疗致命传染病方面 取得重大突破
breakthroughs:突破; infectious:adj.传染的;传染性的;易传染的; diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类;
And this was another killer app -- the very opposite of a killer, because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy . 这又是一个“致命”应用程序 但这个程序并不致命 反而将人类的寿命提高了一倍又一倍
life expectancy:预期寿命;
It even did that in the European empires. 现代医药 在欧洲帝国的殖民地中 也发挥了作用
Even in places like Senegal, beginning in the early 20th century, there were major breakthroughs in public health, and life expectancy began to rise. 即使是在塞内加尔（西非国家） 公共卫生也在20世纪早期 取得了重大突破 延长了人们的寿命
It doesn't rise any faster after these countries become independent . 而这些国家独立之后 人们的寿命并没有继续增加
independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等);
The empires weren't all bad. 所以说帝国也不见得都是不好的
The consumer society is what you need for the Industrial Revolution to have a point. 工业革命在一个消费者导向社会进行 才有实际意义
Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命;
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes. 你需要大量需要购买衣服的人
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month; 你们上个月肯定都买过衣服
I guarantee it. 我敢保证
guarantee:n.保证;担保;保证人;保证书;抵押品;v.保证;担保;
That's the consumer society, and it propels economic growth more than even technological change itself. 正是消费者导向社会 推动了经济的增长 其力量超过了技术革新本身
propels:vt.推进;驱使;激励;驱策; technological:adj.技术[工程](上)的;因工艺技术高度发展而引起的;
Japan was the first non-Western society to embrace it. 日本是第一个非西方国家 以消费为导向的社会。
non-Western:adj.非西方的;非西方社会的; embrace:n.拥抱,怀抱;v.拥抱;乐意采纳(思想、建议等);信奉;包括;
The alternative , which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi , was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent . 而另一条路 就是默罕默德·甘地提出的 将贫困制度化 永久化
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择; proposed:adj.建议的;推荐的;v.提议;建议;计划;求婚;(propose的过去分词和过去式) Mahatma:n.大圣;超人; Gandhi:n.甘地(印度政府,社会和宗教领袖); institutionalize:vt.使…制度化; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; permanent:adj.永久的,永恒的;n.烫发;
Very few Indians today wish that India had gone down 今天的印度 大家都庆幸
Mahatma Gandhi's road. 他们没有选择甘地的这条道路
Finally , the work ethic. 最后 职业道德
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant . 麦克斯·韦伯认为这完全是新教的作风
Weber:n.韦伯(磁通单位); peculiarly:adv.特别;尤其;古怪地;奇怪地; Protestant:adj.抗议的;持异议的;n.抗议者;持异议者;
He was wrong. 他错了
Any culture can get the work ethic if the institutions are there to create the incentive to work. 只要有创造 劳动激励机制的制度 任何文化都有自身的职业道德
incentive:n.动机;刺激;adj.激励的;刺激的;
We know this because today the work ethic is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon . 我们都清楚 今天的职业道德 不再是新教或西方社会的专利
phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic. 事实上 西方的职业道德已经沦丧了
Today, the average Korean works a thousand hours more a year than the average German -- a thousand. 今天 一个韩国人 每年平均比一个德国人 多工作1000个小时 1000个小时啊
And this is part of a really extraordinary phenomenon, and that is the end of the Great Divergence. 这从一方面 反映了一个惊人的现象 那就是 大分流的终结
Who's got the work ethic now? 现在谁拥有职业道德
Take a look at mathematical attainment by 15 year-olds. 我们看看15岁学生的 数学成绩
Take a look at:看一看;检查; mathematical:adj.数学的,数学上的;精确的; attainment:n.达到;成就;学识;
At the top of the international league table according to the latest PISA study, is the Shanghai district of China. 根据国际学生评估项目（PISA）的最近调查 中国上海的学生 成绩高居榜首
league table:n.(运动队的)积分排名表;(学校、医院等的)排名表; according to:根据,据说; PISA:n.比萨(意大利城市);
The gap between Shanghai and the United Kingdom and the United States is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S. 英国和美国 与上海之间的差距 等同于阿尔巴尼亚和突尼斯
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; United Kingdom:n.英国;
and Albania and Tunisia . 与英美两国的差距
Tunisia:n.突尼斯(非洲国家);
You probably assume that because the iPhone was designed in California but assembled in China that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation . 你们可能认为 iPhone手机是由加利福尼亚设计 而在中国装配 所以西方在技术创新上还是处于领先地位
assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现; assembled:v.聚集;集合;收集;装配;组装;(assemble的过去分词和过去式) innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
You're wrong. 大错特错
In terms of patents , there's no question that the East is ahead. 在专利方面 东方毫无疑问是处于领先的
patents:n.[专利]专利(patent的复数形式);专利权;
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time, 不仅日本处于领先有一段时间
South Korea has gone into third place, and China is just about to overtake Germany. 韩国已冲到了第三位 而中国眼看就要超越德国
overtake:v.超过;赶上;(在数量或重要性方面)大于;(不愉快的事情)突然发生;
Why? 怎么会这样
Because the killer apps can be downloaded. 这是因为 人人都能下载“致命”应用程序
It's open source . 是共享资源
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料;
Any society can adopt these institutions, and when they do, they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 -- only faster. 各个社会都能采用这些制度 一旦他们这么做了 他们就能实现西方1500年之后的成就 但他们的速度更快
adopt:v.采取;接受;收养;正式通过;
This is the Great Reconvergence, and it's the biggest story of your lifetime. 这是新一轮的大分流 是你一生中最重大的事件
Because it's on your watch that this is happening. 因为你正亲眼目睹正在发生的这些事
It's our generation that is witnessing the end of Western predominance . 我们这一代人 眼看着西方主导地位的终结
witnessing:v.当场看到,目击;是发生…的地点;见证;(witness的现在分词) predominance:n.优势;卓越;
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer than the average Chinese. 美国人人均曾经比中国人人均 富裕20倍
Now it's just five times, and soon it will be 2.5 times. 而今降至5倍 很快会变成2.5倍
So I want to end with three questions for the future billions, just ahead of 2016, when the United States will lose its place as number one economy to China. 我想通过三个问题 来结束 在2016年 中国取代美国 成为世界头号经济强国之前 这三个问题与未来发展有关
economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
The first is, can you delete these apps, and are we in the process of doing so in the Western world? 第一 这些应用程序能否被删除 西方国家 是否正在这么做
in the process of:在…的过程中;
The second question is, does the sequencing of the download matter? 第二问题 这些应用程序需要注重下载顺序吗
sequencing:n.[计]排序; v.[计]定序(sequence的ing形式);
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong? 非洲是否在下载顺序上出了错
One obvious implication of modern economic history is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy before you've established secure private property rights. 我们从近代经济历史中学到 如果不先建立有保障的私有产权 那么就很难 建立民主制度
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; implication:n.含意;可能的影响(或作用、结果);暗指;(被)牵连; transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡; established:adj.已确立的;著名的;v.建立;创立;设立;(establish的过去分词和过去式)
Warning: that may not work. 警告 这可能行不通
And third, can China do without killer app number three? 第三 若不采用应用程序三 中国能否成功
That's the one that John Locke systematized when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights and the protection of law. 当洛克说自由根植于私有产权 和私有产权保护法中 他就是在强调这一点
systematized:adj.系统化的;v.系统化,体系化(systematize的过去式); in private:私下地;秘密地;
That's the basis for the Western model of representative government. 这就是由 代议制组成政府的西方模式 基础所在
representative:n.代表; adj.典型的;
Now this picture shows the demolition of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio in Shanghai earlier this year. 这张照片展示了 中国艺术家艾未未在上海的工作室 今年早些时候被拆除的画面
demolition:n.拆除(等于demolishment);破坏;毁坏; studio:n.工作室;[广播][电视]演播室;画室;电影制片厂;
He's now free again, having been detained , as you know, for some time. 经过一段时间的关押 他现在已经重获自由
detained:v.拘留;扣押;留住;阻留;(detain的过去分词和过去式)
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt. 但是他的工作室应该没有得到重建
Winston Churchill once defined civilization in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938. 丘吉尔在1938年一次演说中 曾对文明做出了定义
Churchill:n.邱吉尔(英国政治家及作家); defined:adj.有定义的,确定的; v.使明确; civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明; lecture:n.演讲;讲座;讲课;谴责;v.开讲座;讲授;讲课;指责;告诫 fateful:adj.重大的;决定性的;宿命的;
And I think these words really nail it: "It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians . 我认为这句话一针见血 “文明意味着社会以民众的意见为基石。
civilians:n.平民;市民;文官;无军职人员;(civilian的复数)
It means that violence , the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs, the conditions of camps and warfare , of riot and tyranny , give place to parliaments where laws are made, and independent courts of justice in which over long periods those laws are maintained . 意味着暴力,暴君统治, 集中营,战争,暴乱,独裁 统统让位于制定法律的议会 和长期保证法律得到执行的 独立司法机关。
violence:n.暴力;侵犯;激烈;歪曲; warriors:n.(尤指旧时的)武士,勇士,斗士(warrior的复数) despotic:adj.暴虐的,暴君的;专横的; warfare:n.战争;冲突; riot:n.骚乱;暴乱;丰富多彩;品种繁多;v.发生骚乱;闹事; tyranny:n.暴政;专横;严酷;残暴的行为(需用复数); parliaments:n.议会,国会; justice:n.公平;公正;司法制度;审判; maintained:v.维持;维修;保养;固执己见;(maintain的过去式和过去分词)
That is civilization -- and in its soil grow continually freedom, comfort and culture," 这就是文明－－ 在文明的土壤中, 自由,祥和,文化都能茁壮成长。”
continually:adv.不断地;频繁地;
what all TEDsters care about most. 这是所有TED迷最关心的
'"When civilization reigns in any country, a wider and less harassed life is afforded to the masses of the people." “当文明进驻一个国家 广大民众也便过上了 更为自由,舒适的生活。”
harassed:adj.疲惫焦虑的;v.侵扰;骚扰;不断攻击(敌人);(harass的过去分词和过去式) afforded:vt.给予,提供;买得起; masses:n.民众;大量(mass的复数);包块;v.集中;聚集(mass的三单形式);
That's so true. 这一点不假
I don't think the decline of Western civilization is inevitable , because I don't think history operates in this kind of life-cycle model, beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's "Course of Empire" paintings. 我认为西方文明的衰落 是不可避免的 因为我认为历史并不是 以生命循环的方式发展的 并非托马斯·科尔的系列画作 “帝国的兴衰”所描绘的那般绮丽
decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降; inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; illustrated:v.加插图于;给(书等)做图表;说明,解释;(illustrate的过去分词和过去式)
That's not the way history works. 历史不是这样运作的
That's not the way the West rose, and I don't think it's the way the West will fall. 西方世界的崛起和衰落 都不是这样发生的
The West may collapse very suddenly. 西方世界可能转眼间就崩塌了
collapse:vi.倒塌;瓦解;暴跌;vt.使倒塌,使崩溃;使萎陷;折叠;n.倒塌;失败;衰竭;
Complex civilizations do that, because they operate, most of the time, on the edge of chaos . 复杂的文明往往都是这样 这是因为大多数情况下 这些国家都处于崩溃的边缘
civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式); on the edge of:adv.几乎;濒于;在…边缘; chaos:n.混沌,混乱;
That's one of the most profound insights to come out of the historical study of complex institutions like civilizations. 这是我们在对文明 这样复杂制度的历史研究中 最大的领悟
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数); historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的;
No, we may hang on, despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated , despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic and other parts of our historical mojo . 尽管我们负债累累 尽管我们的职业道德已经沦丧 尽管我们其它的历史优势都不再灵光 我们还是可以生存的
despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; burdens:n.负担;责任;船的载货量;v.使负担;烦扰;装货于; debt:n.债务;借款;罪过; accumulated:v.积累;积聚;(数量)逐渐增加;(accumulate的过去式和过去分词) evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; mojo:n.巫术;符咒;运气;adj.巫术的;vt.对…念咒语;
But one thing is for sure, the Great Divergence is over, folks. 但有一点是肯定的 弟兄们 大分流 已经玩完了
Thanks very much. 感谢大家
(Applause) （众人鼓掌）
Bruno Giussani: Niall, 布鲁诺·吉尤萨尼:尼尔
I am just curious about your take on the other region of the world that's booming , which is Latin America. 我想知道 你对拉丁美洲这片正在崛起的地区 有何见解
curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的; region:n.地区;范围;部位; booming:adj.兴旺的,繁荣的;大受欢迎的;v.兴旺(boom的现在分词);发出隆隆声;
What's your view on that? 说说你的看法
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking about the rise of the East; 尼尔·费格森:我所谈论的 并不只是东方的崛起
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest, and that includes South America. 我说的是西方以外地区的崛起 南美洲当然也包括在内
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard , "Hey, is South America part of the West?" 我曾经问我在哈佛大学的一位同事 “嘿,南美洲属于西方吗？”
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生;
He was an expert in Latin American history. 他可是拉丁美洲历史方面的专家
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that." 他说:“我还真不确定。我得好好想想。”
That tells you something really important. 这很能说明问题
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular , but also Chile, which was in many ways the one that led the way in transforming the institutions of economic life, there's a very bright future indeed. 你们看看巴西的情况 还有智力 这个国家在经济生活中的制度转型 有许多过人之处 这个国家的前景一片光明
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); in particular:尤其,特别; transforming:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);使改观;(transform的现在分词)
So my story really is as much about that convergence in the Americas as it's a convergence story in Eurasia . 我想说的是 美洲的大分流 和欧亚的大分流情况是差不多的
convergence:n.[数]收敛;会聚,集合; Eurasia:n.欧亚(大陆);
BG: And there is this impression that North America and Europe are not really paying attention to these trends . 吉尤萨尼:似乎 北美和欧洲 都没有注意到 这些趋势
impression:n.印象;影响;效果;感想; trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
Mostly they're worried about each other. 他们只是相互担心
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow. 美国人担心欧洲模式明天就要分崩离析
crumble:v.崩溃;破碎,粉碎;n.面包屑;
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow. 而欧洲人担心美国各方矛盾不久就会爆发
budget:n.预算,预算费;v.安排,预定;把…编入预算;adj.廉价的; explode:v.爆炸;爆裂;勃然(大怒);突然发生(危险);
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently . 似乎我们最近都在担心这些事情
recently:adv.最近;新近;
NF: I think the fiscal crisis that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic -- is essentially the same thing taking different forms in terms of political culture. 费格森:认为发达国家的政府财政危机 不管是欧洲还是美国 在本质上都是相同的 只不过披着不同的 政治文化外衣而已
fiscal:adj.会计的,财政的;国库的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; Atlantic:adj.大西洋的;巨人阿特拉斯的;n.大西洋; essentially:adv.本质上;本来;
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet -- it's partly to do with demographics . 这个危机尤其它自身的结构 这在一定程度上与人口统计数据有关
structural:adj.结构的;建筑的; facet:n.面;方面;小平面;vt.在…上琢面; demographics:n.人口统计资料;
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis that followed excessive leverage , excessive borrowing in the private sector . 但是 这主要还是过度杠杆作用 和过度向私有行业贷款 才导致大规模危机的产生
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; excessive:adj.过多的,极度的;过分的; leverage:n.影响力;杠杆作用;杠杆效力;v.举债经营;借贷收购; private sector:n.(国家经济的)私营部分;
That crisis, which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me, 人们 对危机过于关注 我也不例外
I think is an epiphenomenon. 我认为这是一种偶发现象
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon, which has just accelerated this huge shift , which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy . 金融危机不算是非常重大的历史现象 只是在近期才开始 愈演愈烈 结束了西方五百年的世袭优势
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; accelerated:v.(使)加速;加速;加快(accelerate的过去分词和过去式) shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换; millennium:n.千年期,千禧年;一千年,千年纪念;太平盛世,黄金时代; ascendancy:n.优势;支配地位(等于ascendency,ascendence);
I think that's its real importance. 我认为这才是其重要性所在
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.) 吉尤萨尼:谢谢你 （费格森:也谢谢你 布鲁诺）
(Applause) （众人鼓掌）