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NateSilver_2009A-_种族会影响选票吗_
I want to talk about the election. 我想谈谈这次的大选。
For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters voted for an African-American candidate for President. 这是美国历史上第一次,多数的白人 把票投给了一个非洲裔总统候选人。
United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) predominantly:adv.主要地;显著地; African-American:非洲裔美国人(指美国黑人);
And in fact Barack Obama did quite well. 而实际上贝拉克·奥巴马的确表现的很好。
He won 375 electoral votes. 他赢得了375张选举人的投票。
electoral:adj.选举的;选举人的;
And he won about 70 million popular votes more than any other presidential candidate, of any race, of any party, in history. 而且他还赢得了大约7000万的民众选票。 比其他任何的总统候选人的票数都要多, 无论是来自任何政党,任何种族。
presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的;
If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier -- 如果对比一下奥巴马与四年前约翰·克里的表现--
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较;
Democrats really like seeing this transition here, where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic -- even states Obama lost, like out west. 民主党人还真是很高兴看到这一转变, 几乎每一个州都变得比以前更蓝了,变得更民主了-- 即使是在奥巴马没有赢的那些州,像是除西部之外的那些。
Democrats:n.民主党员(democrat的复数);民主主义者; transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡; democratic:adj.民主的;民主政治的;大众的;
Those states became more blue. 那些州也变的更蓝了。
In the south, in the northeast , almost everywhere but with a couple of exceptions here and there . 在南部地区,东北地区,几乎到处都是 但是各个地方也有那么几个例外。
northeast:adj.东北的;来自东北的;n.东北;adv.向东北;来自东北; here and there:各处,到处;
One exception is in Massachusetts. 一个例外是在马萨诸塞州。
exception:n.例外;异议;
That was John Kerry's home state. 那个州是约翰·克里的家乡。
No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there. 奥巴马在那的表现不如克里也没什么好奇怪的。
Or in Arizona , which is John McCain's home, 或者是在亚利桑那州,约翰·麦凯恩的家乡,
Arizona:n.美国亚利桑那州;
Obama didn't have much improvement . 奥巴马也没有太大的进展。
improvement:n.改进,改善;
But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here. 但是在美国也有这样一部分差不多在中部的地区。
region:n.地区;范围;部位;
This kind of Arkansans, Tennessee , Oklahoma , West Virginia region. 像是阿肯色州,田纳西州,俄克拉荷马州,西弗吉尼亚州这类的地方。
Tennessee:n.田纳西州(美国州名); Oklahoma:n.美国俄克拉荷马州; Virginia:adj.弗吉尼亚州的;
Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to actually win, how he did in '96, you see real big differences in this part of the country right here -- the, kind of, Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it. 如果你现在看一下96年,比尔·克林顿, 最后一位取得胜利的民主党人,他在96年的表现, 就在这你会看到美国的这个地区巨大的差异-- 像是阿巴拉契亚山脉,奥索卡山脉这样的高原地区,我是这么叫的。
highlands:n.高原地区;山岳地带;(highland的复数)
20 or 30 point swings from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did in 2008. 二十或三十点的波动 自从比尔·克林顿在96年的表现到奥巴马的表现 在2008年里。
Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very very profound differences. 是的,比尔·克林顿确实是来自阿肯色州的,但是这些也都是非常非常巨大的差异。
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的;
So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know. 所以,当我们想到像美国阿肯色州这样的地方的时候,你们就了解了吧。
There is a book written called, What's the Matter with Kansas ? 有一本叫《堪萨斯州是怎么了？》的书
Kansas:n.堪萨斯州(美国州名);
But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas. 但问题就是--奥巴马在堪萨斯州的表现相对来说还是不错的。
relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
He lost badly but every Democrat does. 他确实输的很惨,但是每个民主党人也都会输。
He lost no worse than most people do. 他输的其实还不像大部分人那么惨。
But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas? 不过是呀,阿肯色州又是怎么了？
(Laughter) （笑声）
And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations . 而当我们想到阿肯色州的时候我们会倾向于有一种很消极的概念。
negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝; connotations:内涵;含蓄;隐含意义(connotation的复数);
We think of a bunch of rednecks , quote, unquote , with guns. （原话起）“我们会想到一群乡下人”（原话止）拿着枪。
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; rednecks:n.乡下人;农人(redneck的复数形式); unquote:vi.(句,文等)结束(引文);vt.(句,文等)结束(引文);
And we think people like this probably don't want to vote for people who look like this, and are named Barack Obama. 而我们觉得像这样的人大概是不会想把票投给 像这样的长相,名字叫贝拉克·奥巴马的人的。
We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair? 我们认为这是种族问题。而这样想公平吗？
Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country? 我们是不是有点在侮蔑来自阿肯色州乃至美国这个地区的人？
stigmatizing:vt.诬蔑;玷污;给…打上烙印;
And the answer is, it is at least partially fair. 而答案是,至少一部分是公平的。
partially:adv.部分地;偏袒地;
We know that race was a factor , and the reason why we know that is because we asked those people. 我们知道种族确实是一个因素,而我们明白这个道理的原因 是因为我们询问了那些人。
factor:n.因素;要素;[物]因数;代理人;v.做代理商;v.把…作为因素计入;
Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted exit polls in every state, in 37 states, out of the 50, they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race. 其实我们没有真的去问他们,只是当他们组织 每个州投票之后的民意调查的时候 在50个州中的37个州 他们相当直接的询问了一个关于种族的问题。
conducted:v.组织;安排;实施;执行;指挥;带领;引导;(conduct的过去分词和过去式) polls:n.民意调查; v.对…进行民意测验,使投票(poll的单三形式);
They asked this question. 他们问的是这个问题:
In deciding your vote for President today, was the race of the candidate a factor? 在你做出投票决定的时候时,候选人的种族是 一个影响因素吗？
We're looking for people who said, "Yes, race was a factor; moreover it was an important factor, in my decision." 我们找的是那些回答:“是的,种族是一个影响因素; 而且在我的决定中是一个重要的因素。”的人
moreover:adv.而且;此外;
And people who voted for John McCain as a result of that factor, maybe in combination with other factors , and maybe alone. 而为约翰·麦凯恩投票的那些人 结果就是因为那个因素, 也许还夹杂着其他的因素,也许只是这一个。
as a result:结果; combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
We're looking for this behavior among white voters, or really, non-black voters. 我们在白种人投票者中寻找着有这样看法的人, 或者实际上就是那些非黑人选民。
non-black:非黑人;非黑人的;
So you see, big differences in different parts of the country, on this question. 所以你们可以看到美国不同的地区都是有很大的差异的 在这个问题上。
In Louisiana , about one in five white voters said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama is because he was an African-American." 在路易斯安那州,大约5个白种人投票者中就有一个 说:“是的,我投票反对贝拉克·奥巴马的很大原因之一 就是因为他是一个非裔美国人。
Louisiana:n.美国路易斯安那州;
If those people had voted for Obama, even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely. 如果那些人当初把票投给了奥巴马, 即使只有一半,奥巴马都会很有把握地赢得路易斯安那州。
Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see at the top of the list. 我觉得单子上面你们看到的这些名次靠上的州都是一样的情况。
Meanwhile , California, New York. We can say, "Oh we're enlightened ," 同时,还有加利福尼亚州和纽约州。我们可以说:”哦,我们真是很受启迪呀,“
Meanwhile:adv.同时,其间;n.其间,其时; enlightened:adj.开明的; v.启发; (enlighten的过去分词和过去式)
but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this admitted, I suppose , manifestation of racially-based voting. 但是你们知道,肯定这个的认可度是相当低的 我猜想, 那些表明了建立在人种基础上的投票。
incidence:n.发生率;影响;[光]入射;影响范围; suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想: manifestation:n.表现;显示;示威运动;
Here is the same data on a map. 这里有一张地图上显示着同样的数据。
You kind of see the relationship between the redder states of where more people responded and said, "Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me." 你们大概可以看到 那些更红一些的州之间的关系,在那些地方更多的人回答说: ”是的,奥巴马的种族之前对我来说是一个难题。“
responded:v.回答,回应;作出反应;响应;反应灵敏;(respond的过去式和过去分词)
You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here. 你们看,把这张地图与96年的相比,大家会看到这有一个重叠的地方。
comparing:v.比较;对比;(compare的现在分词) overlap:n.重叠;重复;v.部分重叠;与…同时发生;
This really seems to explain why Barack Obama did worse in this one part of the country. 这个似乎真的解释了 为什么在美国的同一个地方, 奥巴马的表现更糟糕。
So we have to ask why. 所以我们要问问为什么。
Is racism predictable in some way? 是不是种族歧视在某种程度上是可以预测的？
racism:n.种族主义,种族歧视;人种偏见; predictable:adj.可预言的;
Is there something driving this? 是不是有什么东西导致了这样的结果？
Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas that we don't understand, and Kentucky ? 是不是只是阿肯色州有一些我们不能理解的古怪的念头 还有肯塔基州？
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: Kentucky:n.肯塔基州;
Or are there more systematic factors at work? 还是有更多系统性的因素在起作用？
systematic:adj.系统的;体系的;有系统的;[图情]分类的;一贯的,惯常的;
And so we can look at a bunch of different variables . 所以让我们来看看这一群不同的可变因素。
variables:n.[数]变量;
These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time -- things like income, and religion, education. 这些东西都是经济学家和政治学家们常看的-- 像是收入,宗教和受教育程度。
Which of these seem to drive this manifestation of racism in this big national experiment we had on November fourth? 这些里面哪些看起来更像是导致 种族歧视的因素 在11月4日这样一个美国做出重大决定的日子里出现的呢？（大选）
And there are a couple of these that have strong predictive relationships -- one of which is education. 而其中的一些因素 预示着强烈的关联性-- 其中之一就是受教育程度。
predictive:adj.预言性的;成为前兆的;
Where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling per adult, are in red, and you see this part of the country, the Appalachians region, is less educated. It's just a fact. 你们看到那些平均每个成年人受教育年数最少的州 都是红色的, 而你们看到美国的阿巴拉契亚山脉这个地区, 受教育程度是很低的。这确实是个事实。
And you see the relationship there with the racially-based voting patterns. 然后你可以看到它们的联系 就是都是建立在种族基础上的投票模式。
The other variable that's important is the type of neighborhood that you live in. 另一个很重要的变数是 你生活的地方周围的邻居都是什么样的。
neighborhood:n.附近;地区;街坊;adj.附近的;
States that are more rural , even some of the states like New Hampshire and Maine , they exhibit a little bit of this racially-based voting against Barack Obama. 那些更乡村化一些的州, 甚至一些像是新罕布什尔和缅因这样的州, 他们也表现出了一点点 倾向于这种建立在种族基础上的投票而反对奥巴马。
rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的; Hampshire:n.汉普郡(英国南部之一郡); Maine:n.缅因州(美国州名); exhibit:v.展览;表现;展出;n.陈列品;(在法庭上出示的)物证;
So it's the combination of these two things. It's education and the type of neighbors that you have, which we'll talk about more in a moment . 所以这两样东西是联合起来的。 其实就是你的受教育程度和周围邻居的类型, 我们一会儿再具体的谈一谈。
in a moment:立刻;
The thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee is that they're both very rural, and they are educationally-impoverished. 关于州的这个事,像是阿肯色和田纳西州 就是因为他们都是非常乡村化的州, 而且他们的教育也很落后。
So yes, racism is predictable. 所以种族偏见确实是可以预料到的。
These things, among maybe other variables, but these things seem to predict it. 这些因素,也许其他的可变因素也有涉及, 但是看上去这些因素更有预见性。
We're going to drill down a little bit more now, into something called the General Social Survey . 我们现在再深入的挖掘一下。 General Social Survey（社会调查）
Survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览;vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰;vi.测量土地;
This is conducted by the University of Chicago every other year. 是由芝加哥大学发起的, 隔年会有一次。
And they ask a series of really interesting questions. 而且他们会问一系列非常有意思的问题。
series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书;
In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions about racial attitudes . 在2000年他们的问题非常独特有趣 是关于对于种族的看法的。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; racial:adj.种族的;人种的; attitudes:n.态度,看法(attitude复数);
One simple question they asked is, "Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?" 他们问了的一个很简单的问题就是, “你的邻居里有异族的吗？”
We can see different types of communities that the results are quite different. 我们可以看到不同类型的群体结果也是相当不同的。
communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数)
In cites , about 80 percent of people have someone whom they consider a neighbor, of another race. 在城市里,大约80%的人 认为周围的邻居有一些是其他种族的。
cites:n.引文(cite的复数形式);v.援引(cite的第三人称单数形式);
But in rural communities, only about 30 percent. 但是在乡村这个群体里,大约只有30%。
Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period. 很有可能是因为如果你住在农场里,你周围就不会有太多的邻居,就是这样了。
But nevertheless , you're not having a lot of interaction with people who are unlike you. 但是无论如何,你跟那些 异族的人都没有太多的互动。
nevertheless:adv.然而,不过;虽然如此;conj.然而,不过; interaction:n.[计]交互,相互作用;相互交流;干扰;
So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey and split them between those who have black neighbors or really, some neighbor of another race. 所以我们现在要做的就是把那些白人都包括到调查中 然后再把他们分成周围的邻居里有黑人 或者是一些其他种族的人。
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
People who have only white neighbors. 和周围的邻居里只有白人。
And we see in some variables in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference. 而我们看到的一些 有关政治态度方面的可变因素其结果也没有太大的差异。
This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then. 这个是八年前的,那时的共和党人更多一些。
Republican:adj.共和国的;共和政体的;共和主义的;拥护共和政体的;n.共和主义者;
But you see Democrats versus Republican, not a big difference based on who your neighbors are. 但是你们看民主党与共和党相比, 建立在你有什么样的邻居基础上的差异也不是很大。
versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
And even some questions about race, for example affirmative action , which is kind of a political question, a policy question about race, if you will. 而且甚至一些关于种族的问题,例如 那个积极区别对待政策,有点带有政治性的问题, 如果你愿意的话也可以把它看作是一个关于种族的政策性问题。
affirmative action:n.积极区别对待政策(对因种族、性别等原因遭歧视的群体在就业等方面给予特别照顾); policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
Not much difference here. 在这也没有太大的差异。
Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period. 坦白的说积极区别对待政策在白人投票者中并不是很受欢迎,基本是这个样子。
But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods feel no differently about it really. 但是无论是周围有黑人邻居还是周围邻居种族都很单一的人 其实都不会感到异样。
But if you probe a bit deeper, get a bit more personal if you will, "Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?" 然而如果再深入的探寻一下,如果你愿意的话可以再私人化一些, “你赞成禁止异族通婚这个法律吗？”
probe:n.探针;调查;vi.调查;探测;vt.探查;用探针探测; personal:adj.个人的;身体的;亲自的;n.人事消息栏;人称代名词; banning:n.禁止;禁令;v.禁止;取缔;限制(ban的ing形式);adj.禁止的;
There is a big difference. 结果的差异非常大。
People who don't have neighbors of a different race are about twice as likely to oppose interracial marriage, as people who do. 那些邻居中没有其他种族 而反对异族通婚的人 大约是那些邻居中有其他种族的人的二倍。
oppose:v.反对(计划、政策等);抵制;阻挠;(在竞赛中)与…对垒;
Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you. 这个其实就是建立在你的近邻的基础之上。
And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996, "Would you not vote for a qualified black president?" 而且与此同时,还是在1996年而非2000年的那个同样的调查中,他们问道 “你们是不是不会投票给一个合格的黑人总统？”
likewise:adv.同样地;也; qualified:adj.有资格的; v.合格; (qualify的过去分词和过去式)
You see people without neighbors who are African-American were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem." 你们会发现那些没有非裔美国邻居的人 更有可能会说:”那样会给我带来麻烦。“
So it's really not even about urban versus rural. 所以这个问题真的也不能说是城市对乡村的问题。
urban:adj.城市的;都市的;城镇的;都市音乐的;
It's about who you live with. 其实就看你跟什么样的人住在一起。
Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races. 种族歧视其实是可以预见的。它是可以通过 互相影响或者周围缺少跟你种族不同的人从而预见到结果。
predicted:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的过去分词和过去式) thereof:adv.它的;由此;在其中;关于…;将它;
So if you want to address it, the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races. 所以如果想解决这个问题, 咱们的目标应该就是促进不同种族之间的交流。
facilitate:vt.促进;帮助;使容易;
I have a couple of very obvious , I suppose, ideas for maybe how to do that. 我想我这里的几个非常显而易见的 想法也许可以让咱们去做到那样。
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的;
I'm a big fan of cities. 我是个城市的狂热者。
Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable , and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups. 尤其是对那些多样化而且比较平衡 可以支持不同的种族划分和不同的收入人群的城市。
Especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的; ethnicities:n.种族划分;
I think cities facilitate more networking, and casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis. 我觉得那些城市它们可以在你以往的日常活动的基础之上给你带来更多的人际关系网, 和一些比较随意的互动。
But certainly not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York. 但是当然了不是每一个人都想住在城市,而且肯定也不会像是纽约那样的城市。
So we can think more about things like street grids . 所以我们可以多想想像这样棋盘式街道布局之类的东西。
grids:n.[数]网格(grid的复数形式);栅格;
This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan . 这是我长大的地方密歇根州的东兰辛市周围临近的情况。
Michigan:n.密歇根;美国密歇根州;
It's a traditional Midwestern community , which means you have real grid. 这是一个传统的中西部社区,它代表着街道的布局都是整整齐齐的格子状的。
traditional:传统的,惯例的, Midwestern:adj.中西部的,有中西部特性的; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on. 你的邻居,周围的树木和你走的街道都是实实在在的。
And you interact a lot with your neighbors, people you like, people you might not know. 而且你会跟邻居有很多交流和互动, 还有那些你喜欢的或者你也许不认识的人。
And as a result it's a very tolerant community, which is different, I think, than something like this, which is in Schaumburg, Illinois . 所以结果这样的社区接受外来事物的能力非常高, 起码我认为比像是 伊利诺斯州的绍姆堡这样的地方高很多。
tolerant:adj.宽容的;容忍的;有耐药力的; Illinois:n.伊利诺斯州(美国州名);
Where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that. 在绍姆堡每一小片房子周围都会有死胡同 和类似于星巴克这种不用下车便可以得到服务的地方。
cul-de-sac:n.(法)死巷;死路;困境; drive-through:n.乘车穿过;驱车穿越;adj.免下车的;得来速式; Starbucks:n.星巴克(咖啡店名);
I think that actually this type of urban design, which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s, 我觉得其实像这种在70和80年代 就变的很普遍的市区内的设计形式,
prevalent:adj.流行的;普遍的,广传的;
I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming more conservative , under Ronald Reagan. 我认为其实跟它还是有一定关系的而且在 罗纳德·里根的领导下,美国变得更加保守了。
conservative:adj.保守的;n.保守派,守旧者;
But also, here is another idea we have -- is an intercollegiate exchange program where you have students going from New York abroad , 但是同时,这里还有另一个想法-- 那就是一个学院间的交换项目 你可以吸取来自纽约的学生,
intercollegiate:adj.学院间的;大学间的; exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换; abroad:adv.在国外;到海外;adj.往国外的;n.海外;异国;
But frankly there are enough differences within the country now where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU, have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas, and vice versa . Do it at the high school level. 但是老实说现在国内的差异已经够大的了 也许你可以带着一帮纽约大学的孩子 去阿肯色大学学习一个学期, 而反之亦然。我们在高中这个阶段就要去开展它。
semester:n.学期;半年; vice versa:反之亦然;
Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee, and might never interact in a positive affirmative way with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group. 其实也许那些在阿肯色或田纳西州上学的人 永远都不会跟 那些来自国内其他地区或其他种族群体的人有非常积极正面的交流。
Literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地: positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
I think part of the education variable we talked about before is the networking experience you get when you go to college where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise. 我觉得我们之前谈过的在教育这个可变因素中一部分 就是当你去上大学的时候你所能得到的人际交往的经验 你可能确实会遇到那些你并不怎么会去交流的其他种族的人
But the point is, this is all good news. 但是关键是,这些其实都是很有益处的。
Because when something is predictable, it is what I call designable. 因为当一些东西是可以预测的时候, 那么我就会说它是可计划性的。
You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem. 你就可以开始去想解决问题的方法。
Even if the problem is pernicious , and as intractable as racism. 即使这个问题带有潜移默化的伤害,即使它像种族问题一样难处理。
pernicious:adj.有害的;恶性的;致命的;险恶的; intractable:adj.棘手的;难治的;倔强的;不听话的;
If we understand the root causes of the behavior and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't, we can start to design solutions to it. 如果我们理解导致这一行为的根本原因 和那些可以揭示或不可以揭示它本身的因素, 那么我们就可以设计解决方案了。
manifests:vt.证明,表明; vi.显示,出现; n.载货单,货单; adj.显然的,明显的;
So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much. 那么这些就是我所要说的了。非常感谢。
(Applause) （掌声）