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NaomiOreskes_2014S-_为什么我们要相信科学家_
Every day we face issues like climate change or the safety of vaccines where we have to answer questions whose answers rely heavily on scientific information. 每天我们要面对各种各样的问题, 例如气候变迁、疫苗安全等, 我们必须回答这些问题, 而答案很大程度上依赖于科学资讯,
issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗; rely:vi.依靠;信赖; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
Scientists tell us that the world is warming. 科学家告诉我们世界正在暖化,
Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe. 科学家告诉我们疫苗是安全,
But how do we know if they are right? 但我们怎么知道他们是对的？
Why should be believe the science? 为什么我们要相信科学？
The fact is, many of us actually don't believe the science. 事实上,很多人并不相信科学。
Public opinion polls consistently show that significant proportions of the American people don't believe the climate is warming due to human activities, 民意调查一直显示, 大部分美国民众 并不相信气候暖化是人为活动造成的,
Public opinion:n.舆论;民意; polls:n.民意调查; v.对…进行民意测验,使投票(poll的单三形式); consistently:adv.一贯地;一致地;坚实地; significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物; proportions:n.[数]比例;大小(proportion的复数形式);
don't think that there is evolution by natural selection , and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines. 也不认为有物竞天择这回事, 也不相信疫苗的安全。
evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进; natural selection:n.自然选择;物竞天择; persuaded:v.劝说;说服;使信服;使相信;(persuade的过去式和过去分词)
So why should we believe the science? 那么,为何我们应该相信科学？
Well, scientists don't like talking about science as a matter of belief. 科学家不喜欢把科学说成是需要「相信」的事。
In fact, they would contrast science with faith , and they would say belief is the domain of faith. 说实话,他们认为「科学」和「信仰」是相斥的, 他们说「教义」只属于「信仰」的一部份,
contrast:n.对比;对照;反差;明显的差异;v.对比;对照;形成对比; faith:n.信心;信任;宗教信仰; domain:n.领域;域名;产业;地产;
And faith is a separate thing apart and distinct from science. 而「信仰」和「科学」两者本是风马牛不相及。
distinct:adj.明显的;独特的;清楚的;有区别的;
Indeed they would say religion is based on faith or maybe the calculus of Pascal 's wager . 他们甚至说宗教以信仰为基础, 或者像帕斯卡的赌注:
calculus:n.[病理]结石;微积分学; Pascal:n.帕斯卡(压力的单位); wager:n.赌注;赌博;赌物;v.打赌;下赌注;
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century mathematician who tried to bring scientific reasoning to the question of whether or not he should believe in God, and his wager went like this: 布莱兹．帕斯卡是17 世纪的数学家, 他要把科学辩证带入讨论 应否相信上帝的存在。 他打的赌是这样:
mathematician:n.数学家;善作数字计算的人; whether or not:是否…;
Well, if God doesn't exist but I decide to believe in him nothing much is really lost. 嗯,如果上帝不存在, 但我决定相信上帝的存在, 那我真的没太大损失,
Maybe a few hours on Sunday. （可能损失了礼拜天的几小时。）
(Laughter) （笑声）
But if he does exist and I don't believe in him, then I'm in deep trouble. 然而,如果上帝真的存在,而我没有相信上帝, 那我就大遭殃啦。
And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God. 所以帕斯卡说,我们最好还是相信上帝吧。
Or as one of my college professors said, "He clutched for the handrail of faith." 或者,如同我其中一个的大学教授说: 「他抓着信念不放,
clutched:抓住;抓紧(clutch的过去式和过去分词); handrail:n.扶手;(楼梯等的)栏杆;
He made that leap of faith leaving science and rationalism behind. 视为天降神迹, 把科学或理性思考遗忘掉。」
leap:n.跳越;跳跃;跳高;骤变;v.跳;跳跃;跳越;猛冲; rationalism:n.理性主义;唯理主义;
Now the fact is though, for most of us, most scientific claims are a leap of faith. 现在事实却是,对很多人来说, 很多科学主张也没有实验基础。
claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数)
We can't really judge scientific claims for ourselves in most cases. 我们也很难判断某些科学主张,
And indeed this is actually true for most scientists as well outside of their own specialties . 甚至很多科学家也未能判断 超出其专长领域的主张。
specialties:n.特别;专长;特性(specialty的复数);
So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you whether a vaccine is safe. 所以你想一想,地质学家就无法告诉你 疫苗到底是否安全。
geologist:n.地质学家,地质学者;
Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory. 大多数化学家也不是演化理论的专家。
chemists:n.化学家(chemist的复数);药剂师; evolutionary:adj.进化的;发展的;渐进的;
A physicist cannot tell you, despite the claims of some of them, whether or not tobacco causes cancer . 一个物理学家也无法跟你说, 尽管某些人有自己的主见, 吸烟到底会否致癌。
physicist:n.物理学家;物理学研究者; despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; cancer:n.癌症;恶性肿瘤;
So, if even scientists themselves have to make a leap of faith outside their own fields, then why do they accept the claims of other scientists? 所以,即使科学家 在超出自己的专长领域外, 都只相信天降神迹, 那样他们为什么接受其他科学家所提出的科学主张呢？
Why do they believe each other's claims? 那样他们为什么接受其他人的主张呢？
And should we believe those claims? 那样我们应该相信他们的主张吗？
So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should, but not for the reason that most of us think. 所以我认为,是的,我们应该相信, 但不是大部分人想的原因。
Most of us were taught in school that the reason we should believe in science is because of the scientific method. 大部分人在学校接受教育, 我们应该相信科学,原因是其科学方法。
We were taught that scientists follow a method and that this method guarantees the truth of their claims. 老师说科学家遵循一套方法, 而这套方法 确保理论正确。
guarantees:v.保证(guarantee的第三人称单数); n.保证,[法]担保;
The method that most of us were taught in school, we can call it the textbook method, is the hypothetical deductive method. 大部份人在学校里学习的那套方法, 我们称之为课本上的方法, 就是「假说演绎法」。
hypothetical:adj.假设的;爱猜想的; deductive:adj.演绎的;推论的;推断的;
According to the standard model, the textbook model, scientists develop hypotheses , they deduce the consequences of those hypotheses , and then they go out into the world and they say, "Okay, well are those consequences true?" 根据标准的模式,教科书教材的模式, 科学家们提出假说, 推论那些假说的结果, 然后他们到现实世界去验证, 「好,结果是否如我所料？」
According to:根据,据说; standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; hypotheses:n.假定;臆测(hypothesis的复数); deduce:v.推论;推断;演绎; consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
Can we observe them taking place in the natural world? 我们可否在自然界中观察到这样的结果吗？
observe:v.观察;看到;庆祝;监视;
And if they are true, then the scientists say, "Great, we know the hypothesis is correct." 如果可以,科学家就会说, 「太棒了,我们知道假说是正确的。」
hypothesis:n.假设;
So there are many famous examples in the history of science of scientists doing exactly this. 科学史上有很多着名的例子, 科学家就是这样做的。
One of the most famous examples comes from the work of Albert Einstein. 其中一个有名的例子 来自爱因斯坦的理论。
When Einstein developed the theory of general relativity , one of the consequences of his theory was that space-time wasn't just an empty void but that it actually had a fabric . 当爱因斯坦提出广义相对论时, 他的其中一个论点是, 空间和时间不是空洞,没有实体的, 事实上其结构为纤维交织似的,
relativity:n.相对论;相关性;相对性; space-time:adj.时空的;n.时空(等于spacetime); void:adj.空的;无效的;无人的;n.空虚;空间;空隙;v.使无效;排放; fabric:n.织物;布料;(社会,机构等的)结构;
And that that fabric was bent in the presence of massive objects like the sun. 而且在质量很大的物体面前,例如太阳, 时空就会被扭曲。
in the presence of:在…面前;有某人在场; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
So if this theory were true then it meant that light as it passed the sun should actually be bent around it. 那么假设这个论点是正确的, 意味着当光线穿越太阳时, 就会围绕着太阳而扭曲。
That was a pretty startling prediction and it took a few years before scientists were able to test it but they did test it in 1919, and lo and behold it turned out to be true. 那是一个很惊人的预测, 而科学家要到好多年后, 才能够去檢验理论。 他们在1919年进行测试, 真怪呀,结果证明是真的:
startling:adj.惊人的;让人震惊的;极鲜亮的;v.使惊吓;使吓一跳;(startle的现在分词) prediction:n.预报;预言; behold:v.看;注视;把...视为;int.瞧;看呀;
Starlight actually does bend as it travels around the sun. 星光行经太阳时,确实发生弯曲。
Starlight:n.星光;adj.有星光的;星光照耀的;
This was a huge confirmation of the theory. 这对相对论是很重大的确证,
It was considered proof of the truth of this radical new idea, and it was written up in many newspapers around the globe. 它被认为对这个全新想法 提供真实证明, 全球各大报社也争相报导。 全球各大报社也争相报导。
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的;
Now, sometimes this theory or this model is referred to as the deductive-nomological model, mainly because academics like to make things complicated . 现在,这个理论或模式 有时候被称作「演绎－律则」模式, 主要的原因是学术界喜欢把事情搞得很复杂,
referred:v.提到;引用;认为;指示;涉及;(refer的过去式和过去分词) mainly:adv.大多;大部分;主要地;首要地; academics:n.学术水平;学术知识;专业学者; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
But also because in the ideal case, it's about laws. 而且在理想情况下,这跟「定律」有关。
So nomological means having to do with laws. 「律则」就必定跟「定律」有关。
And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea: ideally , it is a law of nature. 在理想的情况下,假说不仅是一种想法: 这是自然界的定律。
ideally:adv.理想地;观念上地;
Why does it matter that it is a law of nature? 自然界定律为什么重要？
Because if it is a law, it can't be broken. 因为定律不能被打破。
If it's a law then it will always be true in all times and all places no matter what the circumstances are. 如果它是定律,就永远都是正确的, 无论何时何地, 在任何情况下都是正确的。
no matter what:不管什么…; circumstances:n.情况;环境;情形;(circumstance的复数)
And all of you know of at least one example of a famous law: 你们所有人都知道至少一个着名定律的例子:
Einstein's famous equation , E=MC2, which tells us what the relationship is between energy and mass. 爱因斯坦的着名方程式:E 等于 MC 平方。 告诉我们能量与质量的关系, 告诉我们能量与质量的关系,
equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式;
And that relationship is true no matter what. 而那个关系无论如何都是正确的。
Now, it turns out, though, that there are several problems with this model. 但是,我们后来发现一些有关这个模式的问题,
The main problem is that it's wrong. 主要的问题是,它是错的。
It's just not true. (Laughter) 这并不是正确的。（笑声）
And I'm going to talk about three reasons why it's wrong. 我要举出三个原因,说明它为何是错。
So the first reason is a logical reason. 第一个是逻辑上的原因,
logical:adj.合逻辑的,合理的;逻辑学的;
It's the problem of the fallacy of affirming the consequent . 这是有关肯定后件谬误的问题,(affirming the consequent)
fallacy:n.谬论,谬误; affirming:v.肯定属实;申明;断言(affirm的现在分词) consequent:n.结果;adj.随之发生的;作为结果的;
So that's another fancy , academic way of saying that false theories can make true predictions . 那是另一个异想天开的、学术上的说法, 就是错误的理论也可得到正确的预测结果,
fancy:n.幻想; adj.想象的; v.想象; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式);
So just because the prediction comes true doesn't actually logically prove that the theory is correct. 所以即使预测正确, 逻辑上也未能证明理论是正确的。
logically:adv.逻辑上;合乎逻辑;
And I have a good example of that too, again from the history of science. 我可以再举一个科学史上很好的例子,
This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe with the Earth at the center of the universe and the sun and the planets going around it. 这是一张托勒密宇宙的图片, 地球处于宇宙的中心, 而太阳及其他行星围绕着地球运转。
Ptolemaic:adj.托勒密的;埃及托勒密王朝的;
The Ptolemaic model was believed by many very smart people for many centuries. 很多聪明人都相信托勒密宇宙模型, 已有几个世纪了。
Well, why? 嗯,为什么呢？
Well the answer is because it made lots of predictions that came true. 答案是,因为很多预测结果的确符合现实状况。
The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers to make accurate predictions of the motions of the planet, in fact more accurate predictions at first than the Copernican theory which we now would say is true. 天文学家根据托勒密系统, 精确预测行星运动, 事实上较哥白尼的理论都要精准很多, 但是我们现在都知道哥白尼的理论才正确。
enabled:v.使得;授予…权力;(enabled是enable的过去式) astronomers:天文学家; accurate:adj.精确的; Copernican:adj.哥白尼的;哥白尼学说的;
So that's one problem with the textbook model. 这就是教科书教材模式的问题。
A second problem is a practical problem, and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses. 第二个问题是实务问题, 跟辅助性假说有关。
practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课; auxiliary:n.助动词;辅助者,辅助物;附属机构;adj.辅助的;副的;附加的;
Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions that scientists are making that they may or may not even be aware that they're making. 辅助性假说是科学家提出假设, 有时候他们甚至不会发现自己提出了假设,
assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数)
So an important example of this comes from the Copernican model, which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system. 一个重要的例子就来自 哥白尼的模型, 而最终它取代托勒密系统,
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究;
So when Nicolaus Copernicus said, actually the Earth is not the center of the universe, the sun is the center of the solar system , the Earth moves around the sun. 当尼古拉．哥白尼说, 地球实际上不是宇宙的中心, 太阳才是太阳系的中心, 地球是绕着太阳运转。
Copernicus:n.哥白尼(波兰天文学家); solar system:[天]太阳系;
Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true we ought to be able to detect the motion of the Earth around the sun. 科学家们说:好啊,尼古拉,如果你说的是真的, 那我们应该感觉得到地球在移动, 绕着太阳跑。
detect:vt.察觉;发现;探测; motion:n.动作;移动;手势;请求;意向;议案;v.运动;打手势;
And so this slide here illustrates a concept known as stellar parallax . 这张投影片展示出 恒星视差的概念。
illustrates:v.阐明;举例说明(illustrate的三单形式);给…加插图; stellar:adj.星的;星球的;主要的;一流的; parallax:n.视差;著名的影视编辑软件;
And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius -- well I know I'm in Manhattan so you guys can't see the stars, 天文学家说:如果地球正在移动, 那么我们观察一颗明亮的星星时,譬如说天狼星, 嗯,我知道在曼哈顿,你们是看不到星星的,
prominent:adj.突出的,显著的;杰出的;卓越的;
but imagine you're out in the country, imagine you chose that rural life — and we look at a star in December, we see that star against the backdrop of distant stars. 但想像一下,你们到乡村,选择过着农村生活, 我们在十二月的时候看星, 就看到遥远恒星的背景衬托着天狼星,
rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的; backdrop:n.背景;背景幕;交流声; distant:adj.遥远的;远处的;久远的;
If we now make the same observation six months later when the Earth has moved to this position in June, we look at that same star and we see it against a different backdrop. 如果我们六个月后再做同样的观测, 在6月时,当地球已转到这个位置, 我们在不同的背景下,看着同一颗星,
observation:n.观察;观测;监视;(尤指据所见、所闻、所读而作的)评论;
That difference, that angular difference, is the stellar parallax. 那种差异,那种角度的差异,　　　就是恒星视差（斗转星移）。
angular:adj.[生物]有角的;生硬的,笨拙的;瘦削的;
So this is a prediction that the Copernican model makes. 所以这是根据哥白尼理论所作的预测,
Astronomers looked for the stellar parallax and they found nothing, nothing at all. 天文学家观测寻找恒星视差, 但就没有观测到,没有发现。
And many people argued that this proved that the Copernican model was false. 因此很多人认为这证明哥白尼的模型是错的。
So what happened? 所以这是怎么回事？
Well, in hindsight we can say that astronomers were making two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which we would now say were incorrect. 嗯,事后看来,我们可以说, 天文学家作出两个辅助性假说, 我们现在都知道两者并不正确。
hindsight:n.后见之明;枪的照门;
The first was an assumption about the size of the Earth's orbit . 第一个是有关「地球运行轨道」大小的假设。
orbit:n.轨道;眼眶;势力范围;生活常规;vi.盘旋;绕轨道运行;vt.绕…轨道而行;
Astronomers were assuming that the Earth's orbit was large relative to the distance to the stars. 天文学家假设地球的轨道 远大于跟恒星的距离。
assuming:conj.假设…为真; adj.傲慢的; v.假定; (assume的现在分词) relative:adj.相对的;有关系的;成比例的;n.亲戚;相关物;[语]关系词;亲缘植物;
Today we would draw the picture more like this, this comes from NASA, and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small. 今天我们画出来的图比较像这样: 这幅来自美国太空总署, 你们可以看到地球的轨道事实上相当地小,
In fact, it's actually much smaller even than shown here. 其实较这张图画还要小,
The stellar parallax therefore, is very small and actually very hard to detect. 因此,恒星视差非常小, 很难侦测到的。
And that leads to the second reason why the prediction didn't work, because scientists were also assuming that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough to detect the parallax. 这也带到第二个原因, 为什么没有观测到, 因为科学家也误以为 当时的望远镜够精密, 足以侦测到视差。
telescopes:n.望远镜; v.套叠; (telescope的第三人称单数) sensitive:adj.敏感的;感觉的;易受影响的;n.敏感的人;有灵异能力的人;
And that turned out not to be true. 而最后发现这是错的。
It wasn't until the 19th century that scientists were able to detect the stellar parallax. 直到19世纪, 科学家才有办法侦测到恒星视差。 科学家才有办法侦测到恒星视差。
So, there's a third problem as well. 所以,还有第三个问题。
The third problem is simply a factual problem, that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model. 第三个问题简而言之就是事实问题。 有很多科学不符合教科书上的方法论,
factual:adj.事实的;真实的;
A lot of science isn't deductive at all, it's actually inductive . 很多科学根本不是推理演绎出来的, 而是归纳出来的。
inductive:adj.[数]归纳的;[电]感应的;诱导的;
And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily start with theories and hypotheses, often they just start with observations of stuff going on in the world. 意思是说,科学家不一定要 先建立理论假设, 他们常常只是从观察出发, 观察世上万物的运行。
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地; observations:n.观察,观察值;观察结果;(observation的复数形式); stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
And the most famous example of that is one of the most famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin. 最有名的例子查尔斯．达尔文,也是世上最有名的科学家之一, 最有名的例子查尔斯．达尔文,也是世上最有名的科学家之一,
When Darwin went out as a young man on the voyage of the Beagle , he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory. 达尔文年轻的时候参与小猎犬号的航行, 他没有假设,没有理论,
voyage:v.航行;远行;(尤指)远航;n.航行;(尤指)航海; Beagle:n.(一种猎兔用)小猎犬;密探;警官;vi.打探消息;由小猎犬指引追猎;
He just knew that he wanted to have a career as a scientist and he started to collect data. 只知道要成为一位科学家, 他开始搜集资料。
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历;
Mainly he knew that he hated medicine because the sight of blood made him sick so he had to have an alternative career path. 主要是他知道他不喜欢医学, 看到血会感到不舒服, 因此不得不选择另一条路。
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择;
So he started collecting data. 所以他开始收集资料。
And he collected many things, including his famous finches . 他收集很多东西,包括他最出名的雀鸟,
finches:n.雀科鸣鸟;雀类;
When he collected these finches, he threw them in a bag and he had no idea what they meant. 他把收集的雀鸟丢到包里, 他也不知道这有什么意义。
Many years later back in London, 多年以后他回到伦敦,
Darwin looked at his data again and began to develop an explanation, and that explanation was the theory of natural selection. 达尔文再把资料拿出来看, 然后开始建立学说, 就是说明物竞天择的理论。
Besides inductive science, scientists also often participate in modeling. 除了归纳法, 科学家们也常建立模型。
Besides:adv.此外;而且;prep.除…之外; participate:v.参加;参与;
One of the things scientists want to do in life is to explain the causes of things. 科学家一生中的志業之一, 就是解释事物的缘由。
And how do we do that? 我们要怎么做呢？
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model that tests an idea. 嗯,一种方法是建立一个模型, 然后做测试,
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell, who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century. 这是一张亨利．卡道尔的照片, 他是 19 世纪的苏格兰地理学家。
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots. 可以看出他是苏格兰人, 因为他头戴猎鹿帽,脚穿威灵顿长靴。
deerstalker:n.猎鹿帽;用偷袭法猎鹿者;
(Laughter) 〔观众笑〕
And Cadell wanted to answer the question, how are mountains formed? 卡道尔想要找出答案, 山巒是如何形成的？
And one of the things he had observed is that if you look at mountains like the Appalachians, you often find that the rocks in them are folded, and they're folded in a particular way, which suggested to him that they were actually being compressed from the side. 其中他观察到一件事, 若看看像是「阿帕拉契」这座山脉, 你们常常会看到里面的岩石 有很多褶皱, 而且是一种特定的折法, 让他觉得 它们像是从一边被挤压而形成的褶皱。
observed:adj.观察的;观测的;v.观察;遵守;注意到(observe的过去分词形式); compressed:adj.(空气或气体)压缩的; v.(被)压紧; (compress的过去式和过去分词)
And this idea would later play a major role in discussions of continental drift . 这个想法在后来的陆块漂移学说中,扮演了重要角色。 这个想法在后来的陆块漂移学说中,扮演了重要角色。
continental drift:n.大陆漂移;
So he built this model, this crazy contraption with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow , buckets , a big sledgehammer . 所以他建了个模型,疯狂的玩意儿, 用撬棒、木头、这是他的单轮手推车、 一些桶子、一把大锤,
contraption:n.奇妙的装置;精巧的设计; levers:n.杠杆;手段(lever的复数);v.用杠杆撬动(lever的第三人称单数); wheelbarrow:n.独轮手推车;vt.用于推车运送; buckets:n.大桶状物; v.拼命划桨; (bucket的第三人称单数和复数) sledgehammer:adj.手下不留情的;强力的;vt.用大锤打;猛力打;n.大锤;猛烈的打击;
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots. 不知为何他还穿着威灵顿靴...
Maybe it's going to rain. 也许那时快下雨了。
And he created this physical model in order to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud, that looked a lot like mountains if you compressed them from the side. 然后他就弄出了个实物模型, 来演示你真的可以模拟出岩石的纹理, 在这边至少用了泥巴去模拟,近似于山脉的状况, 如果你从旁挤压它的话。
physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查; demonstrate:vt.证明;展示;论证;vi.示威;
So it was an argument about the cause of mountains. 所以这就是山脉成因的论据。
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside, so they don't build physical models so much as to make computer simulations . 这些年,大部分的科学家比较喜欢在室内工作, 所以他们比较少建实物模型, 而是用电脑模拟。
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; so much as:甚至于;连…都不; simulations:n.[计]模拟(simulation的复数);[计]仿真;
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model. 但电脑模拟也是一种模型,
It's a model that's made with mathematics , and like the physical models of the 19th century, it's very important for thinking about causes. 以数学运算建立模型, 如同 19 世纪的实物模型, 这是找出原因的重要手段。
mathematics:n.数学;数学运算;
So one of the big questions to do with climate change, we have tremendous amounts of evidence that the Earth is warming up. 因此,要回答关于「气候变迁」这样的大哉问, 我们有海量的证据, 证明地球一直在暖化。
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
This slide here, the black line shows the measurements that scientists have taken for the last 150 years showing that the Earth's temperature has steadily increased, 这张投影片中,黑色曲线表示 科学家在过去150年以来的量测数据。 科学家在过去150年以来的量测数据。 显示地球的温度, 正稳定上升中。
measurements:n.测量值,尺寸(measurement的复数); steadily:adv.稳定地;稳固地;有规则地;
and you can see in particular that in the last 50 years there's been this dramatic increase of nearly one degree centigrade , or almost two degrees Fahrenheit . 你们也可以看到特别是最近 50 年, 则是大幅度的温升, 几乎是摄氏 1 度, 或换算约为华氏 2 度。
in particular:尤其,特别; dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; centigrade:adj.摄氏的;[仪]摄氏温度的;百分度的; Fahrenheit:adj.华氏的;华氏温度计的;n.华氏温度计;华氏温标;
So what, though, is driving that change? 那所以,是什么因素造成变迁？
How can we know what's causing the observed warming? 我们要如何了解暖化的成因？ 我们要如何了解暖化的成因？
Well, scientists can model it using a computer simulation. 嗯,科学家可以建立模型, 利用电脑模拟运算。
So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation that has looked at all the different factors that we know can influence the Earth's climate, so sulfate particles from air pollution, volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions , changes in solar radiation , and, of course, greenhouse gases. 这张图显示了电脑模拟结果, 加入了所有我们想得到的 可能会影响地球气候的变因。 有来自空气污染的硫酸盐微粒, 来自火山噴发的火山灰、 太阳辐射变化、 当然,还有温室效应气体。
factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变; sulfate:n.[无化]硫酸盐; vt.使成硫酸盐; vi.硫酸盐化; particles:n.微粒,粒子;粒子系统;碎木料(particle的复数形式); volcanic:adj.火山的;猛烈的;易突然发作的;n.火山岩; eruptions:n.火山爆发;出疹(eruption的复数形式); radiation:n.辐射;放射线;放射疗法; greenhouse:n.温室;暖房;
And they asked the question, what set of variables put into a model will reproduce what we actually see in real life? 而他们要问的是, 要引用哪些变数,放入此模型, 可以模拟重现我们看到的现实情形？
variables:n.[数]变量; reproduce:v.繁殖;复制;再现;生育;
So here is the real life in black. 所以这里的黑线表示现实状况,
Here's the model in this light gray, and the answer is a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT, all of the above. 而浅灰色的则表示模拟结果。 答案是, 学测试题常有的选项「E」:以上皆是。 学测试题常有的选项「E」:以上皆是。
The only way you can reproduce the observed temperature measurements is with all of these things put together , including greenhouse gases, and in particular you can see that the increase in greenhouse gases tracks this very dramatic increase in temperature over the last 50 years. 要达到重现的唯一方法,最接近实际量测温度数据的, 要达到重现的唯一方法,最接近实际量测温度数据的, 就是把所有因素全都加入, 包括温室气体排放, 而你们可以特别注意到, 温室气体增加的趋势, 和 50 年来温度的急遽变化,有非常大的关联。
put together:..放在一起;组合;装配; tracks:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪;(track的第三人称单数和复数)
And so this is why climate scientists say it's not just that we know that climate change is happening, we know that greenhouse gases are a major part of the reason why. 这就是为什么气候学家会说, 我们不只知道气候正在改变, 而且我们确知温室气体 是最主要的成因。
So now because there all these different things that scientists do, the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said, "The only principle in science that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes." 现在,因为科学家们做各种不同的研究, 现在,因为科学家们做各种不同的研究, 哲学家保罗．费耶阿本德有句名言: 「科学持续进步的唯一原则, 就是想方设法,无所不用其极。」
philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人; famously:adv.著名地;极好地; principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉; inhibit:vt.抑制;禁止;
Now this quotation has often been taken out of context , because Feyerabend was not actually saying that in science anything goes. 这段话老是被断章取义, 因为费耶阿本德其实不是在说, 科学无所不用其极。
quotation:n.报价;引用;引文;引语; context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉;
What he was saying was, actually the full quotation is, "If you press me to say what is the method of science, 他要说的是, 其实他的原句是: 「如果非要问我 什么是科学方法？
I would have to say: anything goes." 我只能说:想方设法,无所不用其极。」
What he was trying to say is that scientists do a lot of different things. 他想说的是, 科学家会想方设法,
Scientists are creative . 科学家要很有创意。
creative:adj.创造性的;
But then this pushes the question back: 但这又回到原来的问题:
If scientists don't use a single method, then how do they decide what's right and what's wrong? 如果科学没有单一的方法, 那他们怎么决定 何者正确,何者错误？
And who judges? 由谁来裁决呢？
And the answer is, scientists judge, and they judge by judging evidence. 答案是,由科学家判断, 他们以「证据」评判。
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways, but however they collect it, they have to subject it to scrutiny . 科学家用各种手法收集证据, 但不管用什么方法收集, 他们都要接受审查。
scrutiny:n.详细审查;监视;细看;选票复查;
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton to focus on this question of how scientists scrutinize data and evidence, and he said they do it in a way he called " organized skepticism ." 这就带到社会学家罗伯特．莫顿所说的, 问题应集中在科学家们是如何审视资料及证据, 问题应集中在科学家们是如何审视资料及证据, 他说,他们用的方式,称作「系统性怀疑」。 他说,他们用的方式,称作「系统性怀疑」。
sociologist:n.社会学家; scrutinize:vi.细阅;作详细检查;vt.详细检查;细看;n.仔细或彻底检查; organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) skepticism:n.怀疑论;怀疑的态度;
And by that he meant it's organized because they do it collectively , they do it as a group, and skepticism, because they do it from a position of distrust . 他意思是说,有系统, 因为他们采用系统组织方式,他们有集体性; 因为他们采用系统组织方式,他们有集体性; 而怀疑,是由于他们以不轻信为出发点。 而怀疑,是由于他们以不轻信为出发点。
collectively:adv.共同地,全体地; distrust:vt.不信任;n.不信任;怀疑;
That is to say , the burden of proof is on the person with a novel claim. 也就是说,提出新主张的人必须负责证明他的理论。 也就是说,提出新主张的人必须负责证明他的理论。
That is to say:就是;即;换言之; burden of proof:n.举证责任; novel:adj.新奇的;异常的;n.小说;
And in this sense, science is intrinsically conservative . 此即意谓着,科学的本质是保守的。
intrinsically:adv.本质地;内在地;固有地; conservative:adj.保守的;n.保守派,守旧者;
It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true." 要说服科学界是非常困难的, 他们很难轻易说出:「是,我们确信此事为真。」
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
So despite the popularity of the concept of paradigm shifts , what we find is that actually, really major changes in scientific thinking are relatively rare in the history of science. 姑且不论大家拥戴「突破性思维」这个概念, 姑且不论大家拥戴「典范转移」这个概念, 我们发现事实上, 在科学史上,科学的思考模式,也很少有所改变。 在科学史上,科学的思考模式,很少有所改变。
popularity:n.流行;受欢迎;普及 paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表; shifts:n.转移; v.转移; (shift的第三人称单数) relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
So finally that brings us to one more idea: 所以最后,这又给我们带来另一个想法,
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
If scientists judge evidence collectively, this has led historians to focus on the question of consensus , and to say that at the end of the day, what science is, what scientific knowledge is, is the consensus of the scientific experts who through this process of organized scrutiny, colle ctive s crutiny, have judged the evidence and come to a conclusion about it, either yea or nay. 若科学家集体评判证据, 这导引历史学家集中至一件事:共识。 这导引历史学家集中至一件事:共识。 到头来我们说: 何谓科学？ 何谓科学知识？ 其实就是科学专家们的共识。 他们通过组织性的审查过程, 集体审核, 对证据做出评判, 并得出结论,不论赞成、反对皆然。 并得出结论,不论赞成、反对皆然。
consensus:n.一致;舆论;合意; conclusion:n.结论;结局;推论;
So we can think of scientific knowledge as a consensus of experts. 所以我们可以将科学知识视为一种专家共识。 所以我们可以将科学知识视为一种专家共识。
We can also think of science as being a kind of a jury , except it's a very special kind of jury. 我们也可以把科学看作 一种陪审制度, 尽管这是种很特殊的陪审制度。
jury:n.[法]陪审团;评判委员会;adj.应急的;
It's not a jury of your peers , it's a jury of geeks . 陪审员不是人人可当, 而是由科学宅宅们担任。
peers:n.平辈,同事(peer的复数);v.凝视;比得上(peer的三单形式); geeks:n.奇葩(指反常的人,畸形人,野人,现也指智力超群,善于钻研但不懂与人交往的学者或知识分子);
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s, and unlike a conventional jury, which has only two choices, guilty or not guilty, the scientific jury actually has a number of choices. 陪审员有男有女,全都是博士。 和传统的陪审团有所不同, 传统只有两种选择, 有罪,或无罪, 科学界的陪审团其实有多种选择。
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的; guilty:adj.有罪的;内疚的;
Scientists can say yes, something's true. 科学家可以说:对,某件事是真的。
Scientists can say no, it's false. 科学家可以说:不,这件事不正确。
Or, they can say, well it might be true but we need to work more and collect more evidence. 或他们也可说:嗯,这可能是对的, 可是我们需要再多花些功夫,收集更多证据。
Or, they can say it might be true, but we don't know how to answer the question and we're going to put it aside and maybe we'll come back to it later. 或者,他们会说:这可能是对的, 但我们不知道如何找出问题的答案, 所以我们先把问题放一边, 晚点再回头来想。
That's what scientists call " intractable ." 科学家们把这叫做「悬而未决」。
intractable:adj.棘手的;难治的;倔强的;不听话的;
But this leads us to one final problem: 而这又把我们带到最后的问题:
If science is what scientists say it is, then isn't that just an appeal to authority ? 如果科学是由科学家们说了算, 那这不会被权威者把持吗？
appeal:n.上诉;吸引力;申诉;魅力;v.上诉;呼吁;申诉;恳求; authority:n.权威;权力;当局;
And weren't we all taught in school that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy? 我们在学校不是被教说:服从权威是一种逻辑谬误吗？ 我们在学校不是被教说:服从权威是一种逻辑谬误吗？
Well, here's the paradox of modern science, the paradox of the conclusion I think historians and philosophers and sociologists have come to, that actually science is the appeal to authority, but it's not the authority of the individual , no matter how smart that individual is, like Plato or Socrates or Einstein. 嗯,这是现代科学的吊诡之处。 这种吊诡我想就是历史学家、 哲学家,和社会学家们得到的结论, 其实科学是由权威者把持的, 然而此权威非单一个人, 不论单一个人有多聪明, 像是柏拉图、或苏格拉底,或爱因斯坦,
paradox:n.悖论,反论;似非而是的论点;自相矛盾的人或事; philosophers:n.哲学家(philosopher的复数); sociologists:n.社会学家; individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的;
It's the authority of the collective community. 这是整体学界的权威性,
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd, but a very special kind of crowd. 你可以把它想成群众的智慧, 但是是很特殊的一群人,
wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问;
Science does appeal to authority, but it's not based on any individual, no matter how smart that individual may be. 科学的确来自权威, 但并非基于服从任何个人, 不论他有多么地聪明;
It's based on the collective wisdom, the collective knowledge, the collective work, of all of the scientists who have worked on a particular problem. 它是基于集体智慧, 群体的智识,群体的工作, 每位科学家一直钻研的 某个特定问题。
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust, this "show me" culture, illustrated by this nice woman here showing her colleagues her evidence. 科学家有一种共通的集体怀疑性, 是「眼见为凭」的文化, 由这位优秀女性为我们呈现, 把证据展示给她的同事看。
illustrated:v.加插图于;给(书等)做图表;说明,解释;(illustrate的过去分词和过去式) colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数);
Of course, these people don't really look like scientists, because they're much too happy. 当然,这些人看起来不太像科学家, 因为他们好像太欢乐了...
(Laughter) 〔观众笑〕
Okay, so that brings me to my final point. 好,所以它带到了我的终点:
Most of us get up in the morning. 我们大部分人早上起床,
Most of us trust our cars. 我们大部分人都相信我们的车子,
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan, this is a bad analogy , but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan get up in the morning and get in their cars and turn on that ignition , and their cars work, and they work incredibly well. （现在想想,我们身处曼哈顿,这个例子有点烂...） 但是大部分的美国人,不住在曼哈顿的那些人, 早上醒来,去开车, 插上钥匙发动,车子启动了, 一切非常顺利。
analogy:n.类比;类推;类似; ignition:n.点火,点燃;着火,燃烧;点火开关,点火装置; incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地;
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down. 现代的汽车很少坏掉,
automobile:n.汽车;v.开汽车;坐汽车;adj.自动的; hardly ever:几乎不;几乎从来不;
So why is that? Why do cars work so well? 为什么呢？为什么车子这么乖？
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk . 这不是因为亨利．福特是天才, 也不是因为卡尔．宾士或甚至伊隆．马斯克的天份。
genius:n.天才;天资;才能,本领; Ford:n.福特[姓氏];浅滩;v.涉(水);渡河;津渡; Elon:n.埃伦(可溶性显影剂粉末); Musk:n.麝香;麝香鹿;麝香香味;
It's because the modern automobile is the product of more than 100 years of work by hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of people. 这是因为现代的汽车,是发展了超过100年的产品, 这是因为现代的汽车,是发展了超过100年的产品, 这心血结晶,来自数以百计、成千上万的人们。
hundreds and thousands:n.着色珠子糖(装饰糕点等用);
The modern automobile is the product of the collected work and wisdom and experience of every man and woman who has ever worked on a car, and the reliability of the technology is the result of that accumulated effort. 这样的现代产品, 是集群众智慧与经验于一身, 每位男性和女性投注心思,在研发汽车, 每位男性和女性投注心思,在研发汽车, 其所达成的技术可靠度, 即是来自于群体累积的成果。
reliability:n.可靠性; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; accumulated:v.积累;积聚;(数量)逐渐增加;(accumulate的过去式和过去分词)
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz and Ford and Musk but from the collective intelligence and hard work of all of the people who have worked on the modern car. 我们不仅是受惠于宾士、福特、马斯克的天份。 我们不仅是受惠于宾士、福特、马斯克的天份。 而是群体的智识、呕心沥血, 每位在现今汽车業界工作过的人都有所贡献。 每位在现今汽车業界工作过的人都有所贡献。
intelligence:n.智力;智慧;才智;(尤指关于敌国的)情报;
And the same is true of science, only science is even older. 科学也是如此,只是发展的历史还更长一些。 科学也是如此,只是发展的历史还更长一些。
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same as our basis in trust in technology, and the same as our basis for trust in anything, namely , experience. 我们对于科学和技术的信任基础是一样的, 我们对于科学和技术的信任基础是一样的, 对任何事物的信任也基于相同一件事, 亦即:经验。
namely:adv.也就是;即是;换句话说;
But it shouldn't be blind trust any more than we would have blind trust in anything. 然而这不应是盲目的信任,科学之于任何事物皆然。 然而这不应是盲目的信任,科学之于任何事物皆然。
blind trust:n.全权信托;
Our trust in science, like science itself, should be based on evidence, and that means that scientists have to become better communicators . 我们对科学的信任,就如同科学本身, 应该要基于证据, 这意味着科学家们 必须成为更好的沟通者。
communicators:n.交流者;通讯器(communicator的复数);
They have to explain to us not just what they know but how they know it, and it means that we have to become better listeners . 不仅要向我们说明他们已知的事情, 也要说明是如何得知的, 而这也表示「我们」必须要成为更好的听众。
listeners:n.听众;监听器(listener的复数);
Thank you very much. 谢谢各位。
(Applause) (掌声)