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MylesAllen_2020T-_化石燃料公司明知如何阻止全球变暖，但为何迟迟不付诸行动？_-
So here's a thought. 有这样一种想法:
The fossil fuel industry knows how to stop causing global warming , but they're waiting for somebody else to pay, and no one is calling them out on it. 化石燃料工业知道 如何阻止全球变暖, 但他们在等待别人对此负责, 而从没有人呼吁他们这样做。
I was one of the authors of the 2018 IPCC report on 1.5 degrees Celsius . 我是 2018 年 IPCC （政府间气候变化专门委员会） 关于 1.5 摄氏度报告的作者之一。
And after the report was published, 报告发表后,
I gave a lot of talks, including one to a meeting of young engineers of one of the world's major oil and gas companies. 我做了很多演讲, 其中一次是在 一家世界石油和天然气巨头组织的 年轻工程师会议上。
fossil fuel:n.化石燃料(如煤或石油); global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖; Celsius:adj.摄氏的;n.摄氏度;
And at the end of the talk, I got the inevitable question, "Do you personally believe there's any chance of us limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees?" 在演讲的最后, 有人问了一个意料之中的问题, “你个人认为我们有可能 把全球升温控制在 1.5 度以内吗？”
IPCC reports are not really about personal opinions, so I turned the question around and said, "Well, if you had to fully decarbonize your product, that is, dispose safely and permanently of one ton of carbon dioxide 我的报告结果展现的 并不是我个人的观点, 于是我反问道, “如果你必须让你的产品完全脱碳, 也就是说,在 2050 年之前 这段既定时间内,
inevitable:adj.必然的,不可避免的; personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言; decarbonize:vt.除去碳素;脱去…的碳(等于decarburize); dispose:v.布置;安排;排列;使倾向于; permanently:adv.永久地,长期不变地; carbon dioxide:二氧化碳;
for every ton generated by the oil and gas you sell, by 2050, which is what it would take, would you be able to do so?" 安全且永久性的处理掉 你出售的石油和天然气 所产生的每一吨二氧化碳, 你能做到吗？”
'"Would the same rules apply to everybody?" somebody asked, meaning, of course, their competition . 还有人问,“同样的规则 是否适用于所有人？” 当然是指竞争对手。
I said, "OK, yeah, maybe they would." 我说,“是的,也许是这样的。”
Now, the management just looked at their shoes; they didn't want to answer the question. 而这时候,管理层都低头不语, 试图回避这个问题,
generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段;
But the young engineers just shrugged and said, "Yes, of course we would, like it's even a question." 但年轻的工程师只是耸耸肩,说, “是的,我们当然会,毫无疑问。”
So I want to talk to you about what those young engineers know how to do: decarbonize fossil fuels. 所以,我想跟你们谈谈 那些年轻的工程师 关于解决方案的看法, 即让化石燃料脱碳,
Not decarbonize the economy , or even decarbonize their own company, but decarbonize the fuels themselves, and this matters because it turns out to be essential to stopping global warming. 不是让经济脱碳, 或者让他们自己的公司脱碳, 而是让燃料本身脱碳, 这很重要,因为它对阻止 全球变暖至关重要。
shrugged:v.耸肩(表示不知道或不在乎);(shrug的过去分词和过去式) economy:n.经济;节约;理财; essential:n.要点;要素;实质;必需品;adj.完全必要的;必不可少的;极其重要的;本质的;
At a global level, climate change turns out to be surprisingly simple: 放眼全球,气候变化问题 其实出奇的简单,
To stop global warming we need to stop dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere . 为了阻止全球变暖, 我们只需要停止 向大气中排放二氧化碳。
And since about 85 percent of the carbon dioxide we currently emit comes from fossil fuels and industry, we need to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming. 而且由于我们目前 所排放的二氧化碳中, 约 85% 来自化石燃料和工业, 我们就更需要阻止化石燃料 进一步造成全球变暖。
surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地 dumping:n.倾倒,倾卸;v.丢弃,扔掉;抛弃;抛售;(dump的现在分词) atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; currently:adv.当前;一般地; emit:v.发出,射出,散发(光、热、声音、气等);
So how do we do that? 那我们该怎么做呢？
Well, it turns out there's really only two options . 其实只有两个选择。
The first option is, in effect, to ban fossil fuels. 第一个就是全面禁止化石燃料,
That's what " absolute zero " means. 也就是绝对零排放的含义。
No one allowed to extract , sell, or use fossil fuels anywhere in the world on pain of a massive fine. 任何人不得在世界任何地方 开采、销售或使用化石燃料, 否则将被处以巨额罚款。
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) ban:v.下令禁止;查禁;n.禁令; absolute zero:n.绝对零度; extract:v.提取;取出;摘录;榨取;n.汁;摘录;榨出物;选粹; massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
If that sounds unlikely , it's because it is. 如果这听起来不太可能, 那是因为事实确实如此。
And even if a global ban were possible, do you or I in wealthy countries in 2020 have any right to tell the citizens of poor and emerging economies in the 2060s not to touch their fossil fuels? 即使在全球 禁止使用化石燃料是可能的, 当前生活在富裕国家的我们, 有权力让 21 世纪 60 年代的 贫穷国家和新兴经济体的公民 不要使用他们的化石燃料吗?
unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的; emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
Some people argue that if we work hard enough we can drive down the cost of renewable energy so far that we won't need to ban fossil fuels, the people will stop using them of their own accord . 有些人认为,如果我们足够努力, 就可以把可再生能源的成本降低到 不需要禁止化石燃料的程度, 人们会自动停止使用它们。
This kind of thinking is dangerously optimistic . 这是一种危险的乐观主义态度。
For one thing , renewable energy costs might not go down as fast as they hope. 首先,可再生能源的成本可能不会 像他们希望的那样快速下降。
I mean, remember, nuclear energy was meant to be too cheap to meter in the 1970s, but even more importantly, we've no idea how low fossil fuel prices might fall in response to that competition. 别忘了, 核能在 20 世纪 70 年代 就已经被认为非常廉价了, 但更重要的是, 我们并不知道化石燃料的成本 会在这种竞争中下降到什么程度。
renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的;n.再生性能源; accord:n.协议;协定;一致;和谐;v.一致;给予;相符;协调; dangerously:adv.危险地;不安全; optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的; For one thing:首先;一则; nuclear energy:n.核能;原子能; in response to:响应;回答;对…有反应;
There are so many uses of fossil carbon, from aviation fuel to cement production, it's not enough for carbon-free alternatives to outcompete the big ones, 化石碳的用途很多, 从航空燃料到水泥生产, 光靠无碳替代品 是无法与传统能源抗争的。
to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming, carbon-free alternatives would need to outcompete them all. 要阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖, 无碳替代品的性价比还需要 超越所有的替代品。
So the only real alternative to stop fossil fuels causing global warming is to decarbonize them. 因此,要真正阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖, 唯一真正的替代办法 就是对它们进行脱碳。
aviation:n.航空;飞行术;飞机制造业; cement:n.水泥;(干燥后硬化的)水泥;胶合剂;胶接剂;v.加强;胶合; carbon-free:adj.不含碳的; alternatives:n.可供选择的事物;(alternative的复数)
I know that sounds odd , decarbonize fossil fuels. 我知道这听起来很奇怪, 让化石燃料脱碳。
What it means is, one ton of carbon dioxide has to be safely and permanently disposed of for every ton generated by the continued use of fossil fuels. 意思就是, 如果继续使用化石燃料, 产生的每一吨二氧化碳, 就必须安全和永久的被处理掉。
Now, consumers can't do this, so the responsibility has to lie with the companies that are producing and selling the fossil fuels themselves. 当然不能指望消费者这样做, 所以责任就落在了 生产和销售化石燃料的公司身上。
odd:adj.古怪的;奇数的;n.奇数; disposed:adj.乐意; v.排列; (dispose的过去分词和过去式) consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
Their engineers know how to do it. 他们的工程师知道该怎么做。
In fact, they've known for decades. 事实上,他们几十年前 就对此心知肚明。
The simplest option is to capture the carbon dioxide as it's generated from the chimney of a power station , or blast furnace , or refinery . 最简单的选择就是 捕获从发电站烟囱、 高炉或炼油厂排放的二氧化碳,
You purify it, compress it, and re-inject it back underground. 并对其进行净化、压缩, 再重新注入地下。
If you inject it deep enough and into the right rock formations , it stays there, just like the hydrocarbons it came from. 如果你将其注入 足够深且合适的岩层中, 它就会像其碳氢化合物 源头那样留在那里。
capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 chimney:n.烟囱; power station:n.发电厂;发电站; blast furnace:n.(炼铁的)高炉; refinery:n.炼油厂;制糖厂;精制厂; purify:v.使(某物)洁净;净化(心灵);提纯;精炼; compress:vi.受压缩小;vt.压缩,压紧;精简; inject:v.注入;注射; formations:n.形成(formation的复数形式);形态;队形; hydrocarbons:n.烃类(hydrocarbon的复数);[有化]碳氢化合物;
To stop further global warming, permanent storage has to mean tens of thousands of years at least, which is why trying to mop up our fossil carbon emissions by planting trees can help, but it can only be a temporary stopgap . 为了阻止全球进一步变暖, 永久储存意味着 至少能保存数万年的时间。 这就是为什么试图 通过植树来清除我们的 化石碳排放虽然会有所帮助, 但也只能是暂时的权宜之计。
For some applications like aviation fuel, for example, we can't capture the carbon dioxide at source , so we have to recapture it, take it back out of the atmosphere. 对于一些用途,比如航空燃料, 我们无法从源头捕获二氧化碳, 所以我们必须重新捕获它, 从大气中回收。
emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数) temporary:adj.暂时的,临时的;n.临时工,临时雇员; stopgap:adj.权宜的;暂时的;n.权宜之计;补缺者; source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; recapture:vt.夺回; n.夺回;
That can be done; there's companies already doing it, but it's more expensive. 这是可以做到的, 已经有公司在做了, 但成本更高。
And this points to the single most important reason why recapturing and safe disposal of carbon dioxide is not already standard practice: cost. 这就引出了 回收和安全处理二氧化碳 尚未成为行业标准的 一个最重要的原因: 成本。
It's infinitely cheaper just to dump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it is to capture it and dispose of it safely back underground. 仅仅把二氧化碳排放到大气中, 比将其捕获并安全的埋入地下 成本要低得多。
But the good news is, we don't need to dispose of 100 percent of the carbon dioxide we generate from burning fossil fuels right away . 但好在, 我们不需要马上处理掉 通过燃烧化石燃料 所产生的全部二氧化碳。
recapturing:vt.夺回; n.夺回; disposal:n.处理;清除;去掉;(企业、财产等的)变卖; standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; infinitely:adv.无限地;极其; right away:立刻;
Economists talk about cost-effective pathways , by which they mean ways of achieving a result without unfairly dumping too much of the cost onto the next generation. 经济学家们所谈论的 具有成本效益的途径, 是指在不向下一代 不公平地倾销过多成本的情况下 取得结果的方法。
And a cost-effective pathway, which gets us to decarbonizing fossil fuels, 100 percent carbon capture and storage by 2050, which is what net-zero means, 通过这样的途径, 可以让我们在 2050 年之前 实现化石燃料脱碳, 以及 100% 的碳捕获和储存—— 净零排放说的就是这个意思——
cost-effective:adj.划算的;成本效益好的(等于cost-efficient); pathways:n.小路;小径(pathway的复数); unfairly:adv.不公平地;不正当地; decarbonizing:v.使脱碳;(decarbonize的现在分词)
takes us through 10 percent carbon capture in 2030, 50 percent in 2040, 100 percent in 2050. 在 2030 年实现 10% 的碳捕获, 在 2040 年实现 50%, 并在 2050 年实现 100% 的碳捕获。
To put that in context , we are currently capturing and storing less than 0.1 percent. 对比一下, 我们目前捕获和存储的碳 还不到 0.1%。
So don't get me wrong, decarbonizing fossil fuels is not going to be easy. 所以我并不是说 实现化石燃料脱碳很简单。
It's going to mean building a carbon dioxide disposal industry comparable in size to today's oil and gas industry. 这意味着要建立一个 与今天的石油和天然气 工业规模相当的二氧化碳处理工业。
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; comparable:adj.可比较的;比得上的;
The only entities in the world that have the engineering capability and the deep pockets to do this are the companies that produce the fossil fuels themselves. 世界上唯一具备足够的工程条件 和雄厚财力的实体 正是那些 自己生产化石燃料的公司。
We can all help by slowing down our use of fossil carbon to buy them time to decarbonize it, but they still have to get on with it. 我们可以通过减缓 但这些事依然必须由他们来做。
Now, adding the cost of carbon dioxide disposal will make fossil fuel-based products more expensive, and a 10 percent storage requirement by 2030, for example, might add a few pence to the cost of a liter of petrol . 算上二氧化碳处理的成本, 就会使基于化石燃料的产品更加昂贵, 例如,到 2030 年, 10% 的储存要求 就意味着可能会 使一公升汽油的成本增加几分钱。
entities:n.实体;存在(entity的复数形式);字符实体; engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词) capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量; get on with:v.在…获得成功,于…友好相处;继续干; pence:n.便士(penny的复数); liter:n.(计量)公升(容量单位) petrol:n.(英)汽油;
But, unlike a tax, that money is clearly being spent on solving the problem, and of course, consumers will respond , perhaps by switching to electric cars, for example, but they won't need to be told to do so. 但与征税不同的是, 这些钱显然是花在解决问题上的。 当然,消费者也会做出回应, 比如换用电动汽车, 但他们不需要被告知这么做。
And crucially , if developing countries agreed to use fossil fuels that have been progressively decarbonized in this way, then they never need accept limits on the absolute amount that they consume, which they fear might constrain their growth. 关键在于,如果发展中国家 同意使用以这种方式 逐步脱碳的化石燃料, 那么它们就不需要接受 对化石燃料消费的绝对限制, 也就不用担心 会影响本国的经济增长。
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; electric:n.供电;adj.电的;用电的;电动的;发电的; crucially:adv.关键地;至关重要地; progressively:adv.渐进地;日益增多地; decarbonized:vt.除去碳素;脱去…的碳(等于decarburize); constrain:v.约束;限制;强迫;强制;
Over the past couple of years, more and more people have been talking about the importance of carbon dioxide disposal. 在过去的几年里, 越来越多的人开始谈论 二氧化碳处理的重要性,
But they're still talking about it as if it's to be paid for by philanthropy or tax breaks. 但大家仿佛都认为这只能通过
But why should foundations or the taxpayer pay to clean up after a still-profitable industry? 但为什么基金会或纳税人 要为一个仍然有利可图的行业 付钱进行清理呢？
No. We can decarbonize fossil fuels. 不需要。我们可以为化石燃料脱碳。
And if we do decarbonize fossil fuels, as well as getting things like deforestation under control, we will stop global warming. 如果我们能够做到, 同时控制森林砍伐, 我们就可以阻止全球变暖。
philanthropy:n.博爱,慈善;慈善事业; foundations:n.基础;地基;基金会;粉底;(foundations是foundation的复数) taxpayer:n.纳税人;所收租金只够支付地产税的建筑物; as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐;
And if we don't, we won't. 如果我们做不到, 气候就会继续恶化。
It's as simple as that . 就这么简单。
But it's going to take a movement to make this happen. 但这需要通过 一场全球运动来实现。
So how can you help? 那你能帮什么忙呢？
Well, it depends on who you are. 这就要取决于你的角色了。
If you work or invest in the fossil fuel industry, don't walk away from the problem by selling off your fossil fuel assets to someone else who cares less than you do. 如果你在化石燃料行业工作或投资, 不要试图逃避, 把你的化石燃料资产 卖给比你更不关心这个问题的人。[08:34]
as simple as that:那样简单;如此简单;就这麽简单; invest:v.投资;(把资金)投入;投入(时间、精力等);授予; assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数)
You own this problem. 你对这个问题负有责任,
You need to fix it. 你需要解决它。
Decarbonizing your portfolio helps no one but your conscience . 让你的投资组合脱碳 只会让你更心安。
You must decarbonize your product. 你必须使你的产品脱碳。
If you're a politician or a civil servant , you need to look at your favorite climate policy and ask: 如果你是一个政治家或公务员, 就需要针对你最喜欢的气候政策 提出这样的问题:
How is it helping to decarbonize fossil fuels? 它对化石燃料的脱碳有帮助吗？
portfolio:n.公文包;文件夹;证券投资组合;部长职务; conscience:n.道德心,良心; politician:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩; civil servant:n.公务员;政府官员; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
How is it helping to increase the fraction of carbon dioxide we generate from fossil fuels that is safely and permanently disposed of? 它是如何帮助增加 我们从化石燃料中产生 且能被永久性安全处理的 二氧化碳的比例的呢？
If it isn't, then it may be helping to slow global warming, which is useful, but unless you believe in that ban, it isn't going to stop it. 如果它做不到,那么它可能 依然有助于减缓全球变暖, 还是很有益处的, 但除非你对那项禁令的效果充满信心, 不然真正的减排就无从谈起。
fraction:n.分数;小部分;小数;少量;
Finally , if you're an environmentalist , you probably find the idea of the fossil fuel industry itself playing such a central role in solving the climate change problem disturbing . 最后,如果你是一个环保主义者, 你可能会发现,化石燃料工业本身 在解决气候变化的问题上扮演着 重要角色这一想法很令人不安。
'"Won't those carbon dioxide reservoirs leak ?" 你会担心那些二氧化碳储存库
you'll worry, "Or won't some in the industry cheat?" 会不会泄漏, 或者一些行业会不会作弊。
Over the coming decades, there probably will be leaks , and there may be cheats, but those leaks and those cheats will make decarbonizing fossil fuels harder, they don't make it optional . 在未来的几十年里, 可能会有泄漏, 也可能会有欺诈, 但这些泄漏和欺骗 会让化石燃料脱碳变得更加困难, 不能让它成为一个选项。
Finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; environmentalist:n.环保人士;环境论者;研究环境问题的专家; disturbing:adj.引起烦恼的;令人不安的;v.打扰;干扰;搅乱;使不安;(disturb的现在分词) reservoirs:n.[水利]水库(reservoir的复数); leak:n.泄漏;渗漏;漏洞;裂缝;v.漏水;透露;使泄漏;传开; leaks:n.泄漏; v.漏水; (leak的第三人称单数) optional:adj.可选择的,随意的;n.选修科目;
Global warming won't wait for the fossil fuel industry to die. 全球变暖不会等到化石燃料工业消亡,
And just calling for it to die is letting it off the hook from solving its own problem. 而仅仅让它走向尽头, 就等于是让它自动摆脱了 需要解决自身问题的困境。
In these divided times, we need to look for help and maybe even friends in unexpected places. 在这个两极分化的时代, 我们需要在意想不到的地方 寻求帮助,甚至是寻找盟友。
It's time to call on the fossil fuel industry to help solve the problem their product has created. 是时候呼吁化石燃料行业 帮助解决他们的产品 所造成的问题了。
off the hook:摆脱困境;脱身; unexpected:adj.意外的,想不到的;
Their engineers know how, we just need to get the management to look up from their shoes. 他们的工程师知道怎么做, 我们只需要让管理层开始直面问题。
Thank you. 谢谢。