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MonaChalabi_2017S-_甄别不可信统计数据的3种方法_
Now, I'm going to be talking about statistics today. 今天我想讲一下统计学。
statistics:n.统计数字;统计资料;统计学;(statistic的复数)
If that makes you immediately feel a little bit wary , that's OK, that doesn't make you some kind of crazy conspiracy theorist , it makes you skeptical . 如果你马上有所警觉,没关系, 我不会让你变成那种 疯狂的阴谋论者, 只会让你学会质疑。
wary:adj.谨慎的;机警的;惟恐的;考虑周到的; conspiracy:n.阴谋;共谋;阴谋集团; theorist:n.理论家; skeptical:adj.怀疑的;怀疑论的,不可知论的;
And when it comes to numbers, especially now, you should be skeptical. 尤其是现在,说到数字、数据, 你应该时刻保持怀疑态度。
especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
But you should also be able to tell which numbers are reliable and which ones aren't. 但你需要能够辨别哪些数字是可信的, 哪些存在问题。
reliable:adj.可信赖的;可依靠的;真实可信的;可靠的;
So today I want to try to give you some tools to be able to do that. 因此为了让你们具有这种甄别能力, 我会试着提供一些方法。
But before I do, 但在我开始之前,
I just want to clarify which numbers I'm talking about here. 我想说明我所说的统计 数据是什么类型的。
clarify:v.澄清;阐明;得到澄清;得到净化;
I'm not talking about claims like, "9 out of 10 women recommend this anti-aging cream." 我讨论的并不是这种广告: “10个女人中有9个 会推荐这款抗衰老乳霜。”
claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数) recommend:v.推荐;介绍;劝告;建议;使受欢迎; anti-aging:n.抗衰老;
I think a lot of us always roll our eyes at numbers like that. 我想我们中很多人对 这样的数字不以为然。
What's different now is people are questioning statistics like, "The US unemployment rate is five percent." 但不同的是,现在人们对这样的 数字也开始抱有怀疑: “美国的失业率是 5%。”
unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
What makes this claim different is it doesn't come from a private company , it comes from the government. 这个数字不是出于一个私人公司, 而是来自政府。
private company:n.[商]私营企业;
About 4 out of 10 Americans distrust the economic data that gets reported by government. 事实上,如今10个美国人中差不多有4个 不相信政府公布的 那些经济数据。
distrust:vt.不信任;n.不信任;怀疑; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
Among supporters of President Trump it's even higher; it's about 7 out of 10. 在特朗普总统的支持者中,情况更糟, 10人中有7人不相信那些数据。
supporters:n.拥护者;(运动队的)支持者;(supporter的复数) Trump:n.王牌;主牌花色;v.出王牌赢(牌);;赢;胜过;打败;
I don't need to tell anyone here that there are a lot of dividing lines in our society right now, and a lot of them start to make sense, once you understand people's relationships with these government numbers. 无须我告诉大家, 当今我们的社会中 划分了许多的分界线, 一旦你明白“人”和那些“政府数据” 之间的关系,这些分界线中的 大多数就不言自明了。
On the one hand , there are those who say these statistics are crucial , that we need them to make sense of society as a whole in order to move beyond emotional anecdotes and measure progress in a subjective way. 一方面,有些人说, 这些统计数据很重要, 我们需要它们来理解整个社会, 进而脱离情感喜好、偏见等, 以一种客观的方式衡量发展程度。
On the one hand:一方面; crucial:adj.重要的;决定性的;定局的;决断的; make sense of:搞清…的意思; as a whole:总的来说; emotional:adj.情绪的;易激动的;感动人的; anecdotes:n.奇闻轶事(anecdote的复数); subjective:adj.主观的;个人的;自觉的;
And then there are the others, who say that these statistics are elitist , maybe even rigged; they don't make sense and they don't really reflect what's happening in people's everyday lives. 正相反,另一方面,有一些人说 这些数据隶属于精英统治, 它们甚至有可能是被操纵的; 它们没什么意义,也不能真正反映 人们的日常生活中发生了什么。
elitist:n.优秀人才;杰出人物;adj.优秀人才的;杰出人才的; reflect:v.反映;映出(影像);反射;表明,表达;
It kind of feels like that second group is winning the argument right now. 现在看来,似乎是第二种人 在这两个阵营的针锋相对中获得了胜利。
We're living in a world of alternative facts, where people don't find statistics this kind of common ground , this starting point for debate . 我们所生活的世界里, 胡说八道已成常态, 人们对统计数据不能达成共识, 也不会把数据作为争论时的出发点。
alternative:adj.供选择的;选择性的;交替的;n.二中择一;供替代的选择; common ground:n.共同点; starting point:n.出发点;基础; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑;
This is a problem. 这是一个问题。
There are actually moves in the US right now to get rid of some government statistics altogether. 如今在美国,人们有一个举措是 完全丢弃政府的某项统计数据。
Right now there's a bill in congress about measuring racial inequality. 现在,国会有一项关于 衡量种族不平等程度的议案。
congress:n.国会;代表大会;会议;社交; racial:adj.种族的;人种的;
The draft law says that government money should not be used to collect data on racial segregation . 草案规定,政府资金不能被用在 搜集关于种族隔离的数据上。
draft:n.草案; v.起草; adj.供役使的; segregation:n.隔离,分离;种族隔离;
This is a total disaster . 这完全是一场灾难。
disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸;
If we don't have this data, how can we observe discrimination , let alone fix it? 如果我们没有相关数据, 我们怎样观察种族歧视现象, 更不要说解决它了？
observe:v.观察;看到;庆祝;监视; discrimination:n.歧视;区别,辨别;识别力; let alone:更不必说;听任;不打扰;
In other words: 换句话说:
How can a government create fair policies if they can't measure current levels of unfairness ? 如果政府都不能衡量 如今的种族不平等程度, 那他们又如何制定合理的政策呢？
policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) unfairness:n.不公平,不公正;不正当;
This isn't just about discrimination, it's everything -- think about it. 不只是在种族歧视方面, 还包括其他方面—— 想一想吧,
How can we legislate on health care if we don't have good data on health or poverty ? 如果我们没有关于医疗健康 以及贫穷问题的可靠数据, 要如何为医疗保健问题立法？
legislate:vt.用立法规定;通过立法;vi.立法;制定法律; health care:n.卫生保健; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
How can we have public debate about immigration if we can't at least agree on how many people are entering and leaving the country? 如果我们甚至对进入或离开 这个国家的人数都无法达成共识, 我们又如何 我们又如何
immigration:n.外来移民;移居;
Statistics come from the state; that's where they got their name. “统计”（statistics）来自于 “国家事务”（state）,是它的词源所在。
The point was to better measure the population in order to better serve it. 它的重点在于更准确地衡量人口 来更好地造福于人民。
So we need these government numbers, but we also have to move beyond either blindly accepting or blindly rejecting them. 所以我们需要这些政府数据, 但我们也不能盲目接受 或者盲目排斥它们。
blindly:adv.盲目地;轻率地;摸索地; rejecting:v.拒绝接受;拒收;不录用;不出售,不出版;(reject的现在分词)
We need to learn the skills to be able to spot bad statistics. 我们需要学会甄别不可信的数据。
I started to learn some of these when I was working in a statistical department that's part of the United Nations . 当我在统计部门工作时—— 它是联合国的一部分, 我开始学会了一些甄别的技巧。
statistical:adj.统计的;统计学的; United Nations:n.联合国;
Our job was to find out how many Iraqis had been forced from their homes as a result of the war, and what they needed. 我们的工作是弄清楚 有多少伊拉克人是因为战争 而被迫离家, 以及他们需要什么。
Iraqis:adj.伊拉克的;伊拉克人的;n.伊拉克人; as a result:结果;
It was really important work, but it was also incredibly difficult. 这的确是一项非常重要的工作, 但其难度也让人难以置信。
incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地;
Every single day, we were making decisions that affected the accuracy of our numbers -- decisions like which parts of the country we should go to, who we should speak to, which questions we should ask. 每一天,我们都在做出 会影响我们统计数据精确度的决定—— 决定我们应该去 这个国家的哪一块区域调查, 和哪种人交谈, 我们应该询问他们什么问题。
accuracy:n.[数]精确度,准确性;
And I started to feel really disillusioned with our work, because we thought we were doing a really good job, but the one group of people who could really tell us were the Iraqis, and they rarely got the chance to find our analysis , let alone question it. 我开始对我们的工作感到失望, 因为我们以为我们的 工作非常棒、很有意义, 但是真正能告诉我们 实情的是那些伊拉克人, 他们却很难有机会看到我们的 分析结果,更别提质疑它了。
disillusioned:adj.醒悟的; v.使幻想破灭(disillusion的过去分词); rarely:adv.很少地;难得;罕有地; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定;
So I started to feel really determined that the one way to make numbers more accurate is to have as many people as possible be able to question them. 所以我开始坚信, 能让数据更加精确可信的一种方法, 就是让尽可能多的人能够去质疑它。
determined:adj.决定了的:v.决定;(determine的过去分词和过去式) accurate:adj.精确的;
So I became a data journalist . 所以我成为了一名“数据记者”。
journalist:n.新闻工作者;报人;记日志者;
My job is finding these data sets and sharing them with the public. 我的工作是找到这些数据集, 并且向公众发布。
Anyone can do this, you don't have to be a geek or a nerd . 任何人都可以做到这件事; 你无须是一个极客或者老手。
geek:n.做低级滑稽表演的人,反常的人; n.(俚)极客,即智力超群,善于钻研但不懂与人交往的怪才; nerd:n.呆子;讨厌的人;
You can ignore those words; they're used by people trying to say they're smart while pretending they're humble . 你可以忽视那些术语; 那些想要表现得很聪明 又假装谦虚的人才喜欢这些专业词汇。
ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; humble:adj.谦逊的; vt.使谦恭;
Absolutely anyone can do this. 毫无疑问任何人都能做到这些事。
Absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
I want to give you guys three questions that will help you be able to spot some bad statistics. 我想向你们提出3个问题, 会帮助你甄别那些不可靠的数据。
So, question number one is: Can you see uncertainty ? 那么第一个问题是: 你能看到不确定性吗？
uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
One of things that's really changed people's relationship with numbers, and even their trust in the media , has been the use of political polls . 有一件事真正改变了 人们和数据的关系, 甚至改变了人们对媒体的信任, 那就是政治上的民意调查的滥用。
media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; polls:n.民意调查; v.对…进行民意测验,使投票(poll的单三形式);
I personally have a lot of issues with political polls because I think the role of journalists is actually to report the facts and not attempt to predict them, 我个人对政治民意调查颇有微词, 因为我认为,记者的任务就是 原原本本地报道事实, 而不应该尝试去预测什么,
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) journalists:n.新闻记者(journalist的复数); attempt:n.企图,试图;攻击;v.企图,试图;尝试; predict:v.预报;预言;预告;
especially when those predictions can actually damage democracy by signaling to people: don't bother to vote for that guy, he doesn't have a chance. 尤其是当这些“预测” 实际上会有损民主的时候, 它向人们示意: 不用费心给那个家伙投票了, 他是没机会入选的。
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治; signaling:n.发信号;打信号; bother:v.烦扰,打扰;使…不安;操心,麻烦;n.麻烦;烦恼;
Let's set that aside for now and talk about the accuracy of this endeavor . 我们把这事先搁到一边, 来谈谈这种做法的精确度如何。
endeavor:n.v.努力;尽力;试图;
Based on national elections in the UK, Italy, Israel and of course, the most recent US presidential election, using polls to predict electoral outcomes is about as accurate as using the moon to predict hospital admissions . 根据英国、意大利、 以色列的国家选举情况, 当然,还有近期的 美国总统选举情况, 它们都表明:使用民意 调查来预测选举结果 无异于夜观天象来预测是否 住院——都是不可靠的。
Israel:n.以色列(亚洲国家);犹太人,以色列人; presidential:adj.总统的;首长的;统辖的; electoral:adj.选举的;选举人的; outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数) admissions:n.许可;承认;入会费;入场券(admission的复数形式);
No, seriously, I used actual data from an academic study to draw this. 说真的,我用一份学术研究中的 真实数据画出了这幅图。
academic:adj.学术的;理论的;学院的;n.大学生,大学教师;学者;
There are a lot of reasons why polling has become so inaccurate . 民意调查变得如此不准确 是有很多原因的。
polling:n.投票;民意测验;v.获得(票数);对…进行民意调查;(poll的现在分词) inaccurate:adj.错误的;
Our societies have become really diverse , which makes it difficult for pollsters to get a really nice representative sample of the population for their polls. 我们的社会已经变得相当多元化, 这使得民意调查者很难在 人群中为他们的调查得到一份
diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; pollsters:民意测验专家;民意调查人(pollster的名词复数); representative:n.代表; adj.典型的;
People are really reluctant to answer their phones to pollsters, and also, shockingly enough, people might lie. 人们不是很情愿地 回答民意调查电话, 另外,令人震惊的是, 人们可能会说谎。
reluctant:adj.不情愿的;勉强的;顽抗的; shockingly:adv.怕人地,非常地;不正当地;
But you wouldn't necessarily know that to look at the media. 但在媒体的报道中,你不一定会 看到并了解这些过程。
necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地;
For one thing , the probability of a Hillary Clinton win was communicated with decimal places. 例如,希拉里 · 克林顿 赢得选举的可能性 在媒体的报道中精确到了小数点。
For one thing:首先;一则; probability:n.可能性;机率;[数]或然率; Hillary:n.希拉里(美国国务卿); decimal:adj.小数的;十进位的;n.小数;
We don't use decimal places to describe the temperature. 我们描述气温都不会这么精确。
describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
How on earth can predicting the behavior of 230 million voters in this country be that precise ? 所以,对这个国家里的 2亿3千万选民的行为的预测, 怎么可能会如此精确？
predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词) precise:adj.准确的;确切的;精确的;明确的;
And then there were those sleek charts. 另外,还有一些美观的图表。
sleek:adj.圆滑的;井然有序的;vt.使…光滑;掩盖;vi.打扮整洁;滑动;
See, a lot of data visualizations will overstate certainty, and it works -- these charts can numb our brains to criticism . 知道吗,很多数据可视化的方法会 夸大数据的准确性,而且很有效—— 这些图表会麻痹我们的大脑, 让我们无法对其准确性生疑。
visualizations:n.[计]可视化(visualization的复数形式);直观化; overstate:vt.夸张;夸大的叙述; criticism:n.批评;批判;评论;指责;
When you hear a statistic, you might feel skeptical. 当你听到一项统计数据, 你或许会怀疑。
As soon as it's buried in a chart, it feels like some kind of objective science, and it's not. 但当它整合进了图表中, 它看起来仿佛就成了客观的科学, 但实际上正好相反。
As soon as:一…就; objective:n.目标; adj.客观的;
So I was trying to find ways to better communicate this to people, to show people the uncertainty in our numbers. 所以我试着找出一些方法 来告诉人们这些数据背后的事实, 为人们展示这些数据的不确定性。
What I did was I started taking real data sets, and turning them into hand-drawn visualizations, so that people can see how imprecise the data is; so people can see that a human did this, a human found the data and visualized it. 我所做的,就是先采集数据, 然后把它们转换为手绘的示意图, 所以人们可以看到 这些数据的不精确性; 可以看到这份图表是人画出来的, 有人搜集数据并把它可视化了。
hand-drawn:抽花刺绣品; imprecise:adj.不精确的;不严密的;不确切的; visualized:adj.直观的;直视的;v.使形象化;想像(visualize的过去式和过去分词);
For example, instead of finding out the probability of getting the flu in any given month, you can see the rough distribution of flu season. 例如,我们不去计算出每个月 可能患流感的概率, 但我们可以得到流感 在每个季节的大致分布。
distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
This is -- 这就是——
(Laughter) （笑声）
a bad shot to show in February. 现在就是二月,展示 这张图不是很合适。
But it's also more responsible data visualization, because if you were to show the exact probabilities , maybe that would encourage people to get their flu jabs at the wrong time. 但这是更加负责任的数据可视图表, 因为,你如果在这张图中 展示了精确的概率, 那么它就有可能鼓励人们 在不合适的时间段
responsible:adj.负责的,可靠的;有责任的; probabilities:可能性;[统计]概率(probability的复数); jabs:n.注射(jab的复数形式);猛戳;v.刺;戳;猛击(jab的三单形式);
The point of these shaky lines is so that people remember these imprecisions, but also so they don't necessarily walk away with a specific number, but they can remember important facts. 这些摇摇晃晃的线条 是想向人们说明 这些数据的不精确性, 它也不会让人们简单地 得到一个鸡肋的具体数字, 而是让他们记住重要的事实。
shaky:adj.摇晃的;不可靠的;不坚定的; walk away with:顺手带走;轻易赢得;轻易获胜;偷走; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
Facts like injustice and inequality leave a huge mark on our lives. 不公正、不平等这样的事实 给我们的生活带来了巨大的影响。
injustice:n.不公正;不讲道义;
Facts like Black Americans and Native Americans have shorter life expectancies than those of other races, and that isn't changing anytime soon. “美国黑人以及原住民的预期寿命 比其他种族的人短一些”, 这样的事实, 短时间内也难以改变。
expectancies:n.期望,期待;
Facts like prisoners in the US can be kept in solitary confinement cells that are smaller than the size of an average parking space. 还包括“美国监狱中被单独监禁的 囚犯的活动空间 比起一般的停车位面积还要小” 这样的事实。
solitary confinement:n.单独监禁;单独禁闭;
The point of these visualizations is also to remind people of some really important statistical concepts, concepts like averages. 这些数据可视化的 意义也在于提醒人们 一些极其重要的统计概念, 例如“平均”的概念。
remind:v.提醒;使想起;
So let's say you hear a claim like, "The average swimming pool in the US contains 6.23 fecal accidents." 比方说你听到了这样一句话: “在美国,一般大小的游泳池 平均含有6.23次大便。”
swimming pool:n.游泳池;游泳场;游泳馆; fecal:adj.排泄物的;残渣的;糟粕的;
That doesn't mean every single swimming pool in the country contains exactly 6.23 turds . 这并不意味着这个 国家里每一座游泳池 刚好有6.23次大便。
turds:n.粪,粪便;可鄙的人;
So in order to show that, 所以为了展示这一点,
I went back to the original data, which comes from the CDC, who surveyed 47 swimming facilities . 我找到疾病预防控制 中心的原始数据, 他们调查了47座游泳池。
original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的; surveyed:v.调查,俯视(survey的过去式和过去分词形式);考察,调研; facilities:n.设施;设备;特别装置;特色;场所;(facility的复数)
And I just spent one evening redistributing poop . 我花了一个晚上 “重新分配这些大便”。
redistributing:n.重新分配;v.再分配;重新分布(redistribute的ing形式); poop:n.船尾;傻子;内幕消息;v.使精疲力尽;使船尾受击;
So you can kind of see how misleading averages can be. 所以你可以看到, “平均”是多么误导人。
misleading:adj.误导的;引入歧途的;v.误导;引入歧途;使误信;(mislead的现在分词)
(Laughter) （笑声）
OK, so the second question that you guys should be asking yourselves to spot bad numbers is: 好,第二个问题, 你们在甄别数据时 应当反问自己的是:
Can I see myself in the data? 我能在这些数据中 看到自己的身影吗？
This question is also about averages in a way, because part of the reason why people are so frustrated with these national statistics, is they don't really tell the story of who's winning and who's losing from national policy . 这个问题在某种程度上 也是关于“平均”的, 因为,人们对政府 公布的数据感到失望的 一部分原因就是, 他们无法分清,在国家政策下 谁损失、谁获益。
frustrated:adj.失意的,挫败的;泄气的;v.挫败;阻挠;(frustrate的过去式和过去分词) policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
It's easy to understand why people are frustrated with global averages when they don't match up with their personal experiences. 很容易理解为什么当人们发现 自己的个人经验与全球平均数据 不相符时,他们会感到非常失望。
global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
I wanted to show people the way data relates to their everyday lives. 我想为人们展示:数据是如何 与他们的日常生活相关联的。
I started this advice column called "Dear Mona," 我开设了一个咨询专栏, 叫做《亲爱的Mona》,
advice column:n.(报纸或杂志的)答问专栏;
where people would write to me with questions and concerns and I'd try to answer them with data. 人们会写信询问 他们所关心的事情, 这些问题包罗万象,
concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式);
People asked me anything. 例如,“和老婆分床睡是正常的吗？”
questions like, "Is it normal to sleep in a separate bed to my wife?" 例如,“和老婆分床睡是正常的吗？”
'"Do people regret their tattoos ?" “人们会为身上的刺青感到后悔吗？”
tattoos:n.文身; v.给…文身; (tattoo的第三人称单数和复数)
'"What does it mean to die of natural causes?" “什么是‘自然死亡’？”
All of these questions are great, because they make you think about ways to find and communicate these numbers. 这些问题都很棒, 因为它们会让你思考, 如何去寻找并转达这些数据。
If someone asks you, "How much pee is a lot of pee?" 如果有人问你: “ 排多少尿才算 ‘尿量多’ ？”
pee:n.小便;撒尿;v.撒尿;
which is a question that I got asked, you really want to make sure that the visualization makes sense to as many people as possible. 这是我曾被问及的一个问题, 你真的会确信:将数据图示化表达 能让更多的人容易理解。
These numbers aren't unavailable . 这些统计数据并不难以得到。
unavailable:adj.难以获得的;不能利用的;不近便的;
Sometimes they're just buried in the appendix of an academic study. 有时它们只是被淹没在 学术研究的附录里。
appendix:n.附录;阑尾;附加物;
And they're certainly not inscrutable; if you really wanted to test these numbers on urination volume , you could grab a bottle and try it for yourself. 它们也绝非高深莫测; 如果你真的想要检验 这些有关尿量的数据, 抓一个瓶子自己试试吧。
urination:n.撒尿,排尿; volume:n.体积;容积;音量;响度;一册;合订本 grab:v.攫取;霸占;将…深深吸引;n.攫取;霸占;夺取之物;
(Laughter) （笑声）
The point of this isn't necessarily that every single data set has to relate specifically to you. 重点在于,每一份数据集 不一定要跟你有专门的关联。
specifically:adv.特别地;明确地;
I'm interested in how many women were issued fines in France for wearing the face veil , or the niqab, even if I don't live in France or wear the face veil. 我对“法国有多少女人 因为戴面纱或头巾而被罚款” 这样的问题很感兴趣, 即使我不住在法国也不戴面纱。
issued:v.宣布;公布;发出;将…诉诸法律;(issue的过去分词和过去式) veil:n.面纱;面罩;遮蔽物;托词;v.遮蔽;掩饰;以面纱遮掩;用帷幕分隔;
The point of asking where you fit in is to get as much context as possible. 问自己是否符合数据当中的情况, 是为了更好地了解其环境背景。
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉;
So it's about zooming out from one data point, like the unemployment rate is five percent, and seeing how it changes over time, or seeing how it changes by educational status -- 所以我们从一小块 数据出发来综观全体, 就像“失业率是5%”这样的数据, 观察它随着时间如何变化, 或者观察它随着教育程度的 差异而如何改变——
educational:adj.教育的;有关教育的;有教育意义的 status:n.地位;状态;情形;重要身份;
this is why your parents always wanted you to go to college -- or seeing how it varies by gender . 这就是你的父母总是 希望你上大学的原因—— 或者观察它随着 性别差异而如何变化。
varies:n.多重复合;v.使不同;改变;违背(vary的三单形式); gender:n.性别;
Nowadays, male unemployment rate is higher than the female unemployment rate. 如今,男性的失业率 比女性的失业率高。
female:adj.女性的;雌性的;柔弱的,柔和的;n.女人;[动]雌性动物;
Up until the early '80s, it was the other way around. 但是在80年代初期之前, 情况与此相反。
This is a story of one of the biggest changes that's happened in American society, and it's all there in that chart, once you look beyond the averages. 这是美国社会至今为止 发生的最大的改变, 一旦你不再局限于“平均”, 就会发现这些信息都隐含在在图表中。
The axes are everything; once you change the scale , you can change the story. 轴线能代表一切; 当你改变观察的尺度, 你就得到了新的信息。
axes:n.轴线;轴心;坐标轴;斧头(axe的复数); scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
OK, so the third and final question that I want you guys to think about when you're looking at statistics is: 好,第三个也是最后 一个问题,我希望 你们在观察数据时思考的是:
How was the data collected? 这些数据是如何被收集的？
So far, I've only talked about the way data is communicated, but the way it's collected matters just as much. 目前为止,我只谈到 数据被传达的方式, 但收集这些数据的 方式也同样重要。
I know this is tough,because methodologies can be opaque and actually kind of boring , but there are some simple steps you can take to check this. 因为收集数据的方法一般是 不透明而且有些无聊的。 但你能使用一些简单的 步骤来检视数据。
methodologies:n.[经]方法论(methodology的复数形式); opaque:adj.不透明的;不传热的;迟钝的;n.不透明物;vt.使不透明;使不反光; boring:adj.无聊的;令人厌烦的;n.钻孔;v.使厌烦;钻孔;(bore的现在分词)
I'll use one last example here. 这里我要举最后一个例子。
One poll found that 41 percent of Muslims in this country support jihad , which is obviously pretty scary, and it was reported everywhere in 2015. 一份民意调查指出,这个国家内 41%的穆斯林支持伊斯兰教的“圣战”, 这听起来相当吓人, 这个数字在2015年被大肆报道。
jihad:n.讨伐异教徒;拥护运动;护教战争;
When I want to check a number like that, 当我想要检查一下这个数据时,
I'll start off by finding the original questionnaire . 我会首先寻找原始的调查问卷。
questionnaire:n.问卷;调查表;
It turns out that journalists who reported on that statistic ignored a question lower down on the survey that asked respondents how they defined "jihad." 结果表明, 那些报道此事的记者 忽视了调查问卷后面的一个问题, 关于受调查者如何定义“圣战”。
ignored:v.忽视;对…不予理会;佯装未见;不予理睬;(ignore的过去分词和过去式) respondents:n.回答者,调查对象(respondent复数形式); defined:adj.有定义的,确定的; v.使明确;
And most of them defined it as, "Muslims' personal, peaceful struggle to be more religious ." 大多数人是这样定义的: “为了变得更加虔诚, 穆斯林们个人的、和平的奋斗。”
religious:adj.宗教的;虔诚的;严谨的;修道的;n.修道士;尼姑;
Only 16 percent defined it as, " violent holy war against unbelievers ." 只有16%的人如此认为: “反对不信教者的暴力的、神圣的战争。”
violent:adj.暴力的;猛烈的; unbelievers:n.异教徒;无信仰的人;不相信者;
This is the really important point: based on those numbers, it's totally possible that no one in the survey who defined it as violent holy war also said they support it. 这是很重要的一点: 根据这些数据, 完全有可能发生的是: 在调查中那些把“圣战”解释为 “暴力的、神圣的战争”的人 根本就不支持“圣战”。
Those two groups might not overlap at all. 这两组人可能根本就不重叠。
overlap:n.重叠;重复;v.部分重叠;与…同时发生;
It's also worth asking how the survey was carried out. 调查进行的方式也是 一个值得探讨的问题。
This was something called an opt-in poll, which means anyone could have found it on the internet and completed it. 这份调查使用了一种 “自愿参与”的调查方式, 意味着任何一个人都可以在 网络上找到并完成这份调查。
There's no way of knowing if those people even identified as Muslim. 我们甚至无从知道这些 被调查者是否是穆斯林。
identified:v.确认;认出;找到;发现;说明身份;(identify的过去式和过去分词)
And finally , there were 600 respondents in that poll. 最后,有600人参与了这份调查。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
There are roughly three million Muslims in this country, according to Pew Research Center. 根据皮尤研究中心统计,这个国家里 差不多有3百万穆斯林。
roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地; according to:根据,据说;
That means the poll spoke to roughly one in every 5,000 Muslims in this country. 这意味着,在这个国家中, 每5000个穆斯林中只有一个 参与了这项调查。
This is one of the reasons why government statistics are often better than private statistics. 这也是为什么政府的统计数据 通常比私人机构的调查 数据更为准确的原因之一。
A poll might speak to a couple hundred people, maybe a thousand, or if you're L'Oreal, trying to sell skin care products in 2005, then you spoke to 48 women to claim that they work. 一份民意调查可能 有数百人参与,甚至一千人, 或者你在欧莱雅公司, 想要在2005年销售护肤产品, 那么你只需要调查48名 认为此产品有效的女性就行了。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Private companies don't have a huge interest in getting the numbers right, they just need the right numbers. 很显然,私人公司对于 追求数据的准确性兴趣不大, 他们只想得到想要的 数字来进行宣传。
Government statisticians aren't like that. 政府的统计学家就不是如此了。
statisticians:n.统计学家,统计员;
In theory, at least, they're totally impartial , not least because most of them do their jobs regardless of who's in power. 理论上,他们是完全公正的, 主要是因为他们的工作 不会受掌权者所影响。
impartial:adj.公平的,公正的;不偏不倚的; regardless:adj.不管的; v.不顾后果地;
They're civil servants . 他们是公务员。
civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; servants:n.仆人;服务员(servant的复数);
And to do their jobs properly, they don't just speak to a couple hundred people. 为了做好本职工作, 他们不能只调查几百人而已。
Those unemployment numbers I keep on referencing come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and to make their estimates , they speak to over 140,000 businesses in this country. 我一直提到的这些失业率数字, 来自于美国劳工统计局, 为了进行这项估计, 他们调查了全国14万家以上的企业。
referencing:v.参考;查阅;给(书等)附参考资料;(reference的现在分词) Bureau:n.局,处;衣柜;办公桌; estimates:n.估计;估价;估计的成本;v.估价;估算(estimate的第三人称单数和复数)
I get it, it's frustrating . 我知道,这令人沮丧。
frustrating:adj.令人沮丧的;v.使沮丧;(frustrate的现在分词)
If you want to test a statistic that comes from a private company, you can buy the face cream for you and a bunch of friends, test it out, if it doesn't work, you can say the numbers were wrong. 如果你想检验来自 一家私人企业的统计数据, 你可以为自己和朋友们 购买一款面霜拿来使用, 但是你如何质疑 政府的统计数据呢？
face cream:n.面霜;雪花膏; a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆;
But how do you question government statistics? 你需要把一切都检查一遍。
You just keep checking everything. 了解他们是如何收集数据的。
Find out how they collected the numbers. 观察一下,你是否在图表中
Find out if you're seeing everything on the chart you need to see. 看到了你需要了解的一切信息。
But don't give up on the numbers altogether, because if you do, we'll be making public policy decisions in the dark, using nothing but private interests to guide us. 否则我们只能在一无所知中 制定公共政策, 引导我们的除了私人利益,别无他物。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）