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MichaelMetcalfe_2015S-_一个刺激的方法，让我们可以生出钱来，打这场气后变迁大战_
Will we do whatever it takes to tackle climate change? 我们是否会「不计代价」地对抗气候变迁？
tackle:v.处理; n.用具;
I come at this question not as a green campaigner , in fact, I confess to be rather hopeless at recycling . 我提出这个问题,不是因为我是环保人士, 坦白说,我对垃圾回收不报太大的希望。
campaigner:n.竞选者;从军者;出征者;老兵; confess:v.承认;坦白;忏悔;供认; recycling:n.(资源,垃圾的)回收利用;v.回收;再循环利用(recycle的现在分词);
I come at it as a professional observer of financial policy making and someone that wonders how history will judge us. 我是以一位专業财经政策制定观察家的身分,提出这个问题, 也是一位想知道历史将如何评价我们的人。
professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员; observer:n.观察员;观察者;观察家;观测者; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
One day, this ring that belonged to my grandfather will pass to my son, Charlie. 总有一天, 这只属于我爷爷的戒指, 也会传承到我儿子查理手上。
And I wonder what his generation and perhaps the one that follows will make of the two lives this ring has worked. 而我在想,他的时代, 或他的下一代, 会如何因为我和爷爷的所做所为而改变？
My grandfather was a coal miner . 我的爷爷是一位煤矿矿工。
coal miner:n.煤矿工人;
In his time, burning fossil fuels for energy and for allowing economies to develop was accepted. 在他的年代, 为了能源及经济发展,燃烧石化燃料的行为 是被广泛接受的。
fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
We know now that that is not the case because of the greenhouse gases that coal produces. 现在大家都知道,事实并非如此, 因为烧煤会产生温室气体。
greenhouse:n.温室;暖房;
But today, 但,如今,
I fear it's the industry in which I work that will be judged more harshly because of its impact on the climate -- more harshly than my grandfather's industry, even. 我担心我所工作的产業将来会因为它没有发挥对气候变化的影响力 而遭受严厉地批判, 甚至被批判得比我爷爷的产業还惨。
harshly:adv.严厉地;刺耳地;粗糙地; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
I work, of course, in the banking industry, which will be remembered for its crisis in 2008 -- a crisis that diverted the attention and finances of governments away from some really, really important promises, 当然,我从事的是银行業, 而2008年银行業所经历的的金融危机已然被载入史册－－ 正因为这个危机,政府转移了注意力与财政方向, 让一些原本相当,相当重要的承诺都被忽视了,
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; diverted:v.呼叫转移,释放;(divert的过去分词和过去式)
like promises made at the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009 to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year to help developing countries move away from burning fossil fuels and transition to using cleaner energy. 例如 2009 年在哥本哈根联合国的气候大会上 承诺每年要动用 的1000 亿美金, 以幫助发展中国家慢慢从燃烧石化燃料 转型到使用干净的能源。
Copenhagen:n.哥本哈根(丹麦首都); Summit:n.峰会;山顶;顶点;最高点; mobilize:v.动员;动员;调动;组织;鼓动;调用; transition:n.过渡;转变;变革;变迁;v.经历转变过程;过渡;
That promise is already in jeopardy . 这个承诺已经陷入危机。
jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
And that's a real problem, because that transition to cleaner energy needs to happen sooner rather than later. 而这是一个现实的问题, 因为转型到干净能源的这件事, 需要尽早进行而不能再拖延下去。
Firstly , because greenhouse gases, once released , stay in the atmosphere for decades. 首先, 因为,温室气体一旦排放出来, 它会停留在大气层中好几十年。
Firstly:adv.首先(主要用于列举条目,论点时);第一; released:v.释放;使免除;已发布;(release的过去分词和过去式) atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格;
And secondly, if a developing economy builds its power grid around fossil fuels today, it's going to be way more costly to change later on. 第二, 如果今天一个发展中的经济体,一旦建立了他们自己的石化燃料能源网路, 之后想要改回来,就得花更多的成本。
economy:n.经济;节约;理财; grid:n.网格;格子,栅格;输电网; costly:adj.昂贵的;代价高的;
So for the climate, history may judge that the banking crisis happened at just the wrong time. 所以,对气候而言, 历史也许会评断
The story need not be this gloomy , though. 其实故事不需要这么凄惨的。
gloomy:adj.黑暗的;沮丧的;阴郁的;
Three years ago, 三年前,
I argued that governments could use the tools deployed to save the financial system to meet other global challenges. 我曾提出言论说过,政府可以善用工具 拯救金融系统, 来迎接其它的全球挑战。
deployed:v.部署(deploy的过去式);展开; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
And these arguments are getting stronger, not weaker, with time. 而这些言论随着时间,越来越强烈,越来越受到重视。
Let's take a brief reminder of what those tools looked like. 让我们稍微回忆一下,这些工具是长什么样子。
When the financial crisis hit in 2008, the central banks of the US and UK began buying bonds issued by their own governments in a policy known as " quantitative easing." 当 2008 年的金融风暴来袭时, 美国及英国的中央银行, 开始购买他们自己政府所发行的债劵, 也就是大家所孰知的「量化宽鬆 」政策。
issued:v.宣布;公布;发出;将…诉诸法律;(issue的过去分词和过去式) quantitative:adj.定量的;量的,数量的;
Depending on what happens to those bonds when they mature , this is money printing by another name. 当这些债劵到期时,看看当时的状况,再决定要不要继续, 这只是另一种印钱的名义而已。
mature:v.成熟; adj.明白事理的;
And boy, did they print. 而且天哪,他们真的印了。
The US alone created four trillion dollars' worth of its own currency . 光美国就印了将近四兆美金。
trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; currency:n.货币;通货;
This was not done in isolation. 这不是单一国家做的事。
In a remarkable act of cooperation , the 188 countries that make up the International Monetary Fund , the IMF, agreed to issue 250 billion dollars' worth of their own currency -- the Special Drawing Right -- to boost reserves around the world. 而是由 188 个会员国共同组成的 国际货币基金组织 IMF所做出的决定, 他们同意发行 2500 亿美金等值的货币, --也就是SDR「特别提款权」-- 来增加全球的货币储备供给。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; cooperation:n.合作;配合; Monetary:adj.货币的;财政的; Fund:n.基金;资金;存款;v.投资;资助; boost:n.提高;增长;帮助;激励;v.使增长;使兴旺;偷窃; reserves:n.[油气]储量; v.储备;
When the financial crisis moved to Europe, the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, promised "to do whatever it takes." 当金融风暴移到欧洲后, 欧洲中央银行行长,马里奥．德拉吉, 也承诺要「不计代价」地拯救金融市场。
Central Bank:n.中央银行;
And they did. 而他们真的做到了。
The Bank of Japan repeated those words -- that exact same commitment -- to do "whatever it takes" to reflate their economy. 日本银行也重复一样的话--完全一样的承诺-- 「不计代价」地要复苏他们的经济。
commitment:n.承诺;投入;保证;许诺; reflate:vt.使(通货)再膨胀;vi.通货再膨胀;
In both cases, "whatever it takes" meant trillions of dollars more in money-printing policies that continue today. 这两个案例中, 「不计代价」就意味着,这些好几十亿的印钞票政策, 会一直跟着我们走到今天。
trillions:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数)
What this shows is that when faced with some global challenges, policy makers are able to act collectively , with urgency , and run the risks of unconventional policies like money printing. 这表示, 当面对一些全球性的挑战时, 政策制定者们也会紧急、共同地做出一些 非传统式的高风险决策,像是印钞票。
collectively:adv.共同地,全体地; urgency:n.紧急;催促;紧急的事; unconventional:adj.非常规的;非传统的;不依惯例的;
So, let's go back to that original question: 所以,让我们回到原来的问题上:
original:n.原件;原作;原物;原型;adj.原始的;最初的;独创的;新颖的;
Can we print money for climate finance ? 我们可以为气候的金融印钞票吗？
finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费;
Three years ago, the idea of using money in this way was something of a taboo . 三年前, 我们这样用钱的方式是一种不被允许的禁忌。
taboo:n.禁忌;禁止;adj.禁忌的;忌讳的;vt.禁忌;禁止;
Once you break down and dismantle the idea that money is a finite resource , governments can quickly get overwhelmed by demands from their people to print more and more money for other causes: education, health care , welfare -- even defense. 一旦你破坏了 「钱是有限资源」的原则, 接踵而来的民众诉求 将会迫使政府在各个方面印更多的钱, 比如教育、医疗照顾、社会福利-- 甚至是国防。
dismantle:v.拆开,拆卸;(逐渐)废除,取消; finite:adj.有限的;限定的;n.有限之物; resource:n.资源;资料;才智;财力;v.向…提供资金(或设备); overwhelmed:v.受打击,压倒;淹没;(overwhelm的过去分词和过去式) health care:n.卫生保健; welfare:n.福祉;(政府给予的)福利;
And there are some truly terrible historical examples of money printing -- uncontrolled money printing -- leading to hyperinflation . 而这样的印钱方式,的确有可怕的历史案例可以借鉴 --失控的钞票列印-- 会导致通货膨胀。
historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的; uncontrolled:adj.不受控制的; hyperinflation:n.[经]恶性通货膨胀;
Think: Weimar Republic in 1930; 想想:1930 年的威玛共和国;
Zimbabwe more recently , in 2008, when the prices of basic goods like bread are doubling every day. 近代 2008 年的辛巴威, 当时一些基本生活用品,像是面包,每天加倍地上涨。
Zimbabwe:n.津巴布韦(国家名,位于非洲); recently:adv.最近;新近;
But all of this is moving the public debate forward, so much so, that money printing for the people is now discussed openly in the financial media , and even in some political manifestos . 但这些所有事情的发展推进了公开辩论的脚步, 因此,为人民印钱,现在已经可以公开地被讨论, 无论财经媒体,甚至一些政党的政策里面都看得到。
debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; manifestos:n.宣言;声明;告示;(manifesto的变形)
But it's important the debate doesn't stop here, with printing national currencies . 但很重要的一点是, 列印国际货币的争论不会就此停止,
currencies:n.货币;货币流通(currency的复数);
Because climate change is a shared global problem, there are some really compelling reasons why we should be printing that international currency that's issued by the IMF, to fund it. 因为气候变迁是一个全球共同的问题, 这也是为什么 我们必须请 IMF 其实也是万不得已的。
compelling:adj.引人入胜的; v.强迫; (compel的现在分词)
The Special Drawing Right, or SDR, is the IMF's electronic unit of account that governments use to transfer funds amongst each other. 「特别提款权」也就是 SDR, 是 IMF 的电子记帐单位, 用来方便政府之间帐户金额的移转。
electronic:adj.电子的;电子器件的;电子设备的; transfer:n.转移;调任;调离;[体]转会球员;v.调任;调走;转学;转移; funds:n.[会计]资金,现金(fund的复数);基金;v.资助(fund的三单形式);提供资金; amongst:prep.在…之中;在…当中(等于among);
Think of it as a peer-to-peer payment network, like Bitcoin , but for governments. 想像一下,它就是P2P 的网路付款方式, 像是比特币,但,是政府之间在用的。
peer-to-peer:n.对等;对等网络; payment:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答; Bitcoin:比特币(电子货币的一种形式,是专为互联网交易而创造的货币);
And it's truly global. 而且,它真的是全球性的。
Each of the 188 members of the IMF hold SDR quotas as part of their foreign exchange reserves. 188 个 IMF 会员国手上都握有 SDR 的配额, 做为他们部分的外汇存底。
quotas:n.配额(quota的复数);[经管]定额,[经]限额;v.分配(quota的第三人称单数); foreign exchange:n.外汇;外汇市场;国际汇兑;外币兑换处;
These are national stores of wealth that countries keep to protect themselves against currency crises . 这些是国际财富的储藏室, 它可以让国家持续保护它们自己免于货币的危机。
wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式);
And that global nature is why, at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, the IMF issued those extra 250 billion dollars -- because it served as a collective global action that safeguarded countries large and small in one fell swoop . 而这也是为什么 在 2009 年金融海啸的最高峰, IMF 又加码多印了 2500 亿美金-- 因为这次集体的全球行动, 把大大小小的国家,全部一次性地保护起来。
extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外: safeguarded:n.[安全]保护;保卫;保护措施;vt.[安全]保护,护卫; swoop:v.俯冲;突然袭击;突然行动;n.突然袭击;俯冲;突击搜查;
But here -- here's the intriguing part. 但这里有一个 很耐人寻味的地方。
intriguing:adj.有趣的;迷人的;v.引起…的兴趣;策划阴谋;私通;(intrigue的现在分词)
More than half of those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009 -- 150 billion dollars' worth -- went to developed market countries who, for the most part , 2009年,有超过半数的 SDRs --价值1500亿美金-- 跑到已开发国家的市场裏面,
for the most part:adv.在极大程度上,多半;
have a modest need for these foreign exchange reserves, because they have flexible exchange rates. 因为大部分这些国家的外汇存底都有一个小小的需求, 它们需要较灵活的交换利率。
modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的; flexible:adj.灵活的;柔韧的;易弯曲的;
So those extra reserves that were printed in 2009, in the end, for developed market countries at least, weren't really needed. 所以,这些 2009 年印出来的钞票, 最后跑到已开发国家市场了, 但他们根本不是真的需要这笔钱。
And they remain unused today. 所以他们保留到今天。
unused:adj.不用的;从未用过的;
So here's an idea. 我这里有一个想法。
As a first step, why don't we start spending those unused, those extra SDRs that were printed in 2009, to combat climate change? 第一步, 为什么我们不把这些 在 2009 年多印出来还没有使用的钞票, 投入到对抗气候变迁上呢？
combat:v.战斗;防止;减轻;与…搏斗;n.战斗;搏斗;打仗;
They could, for example, be used to buy bonds issued by the UN's Green Climate Fund. 他们可以的,例如, 利用这笔钱来买联合国绿色气候基金会发行的债劵。
This was a fund created in 2009, following that climate agreement in Copenhagen. 这是根据 2009 年哥本哈根的联合国 气候大会协议所成立的一个基金会。
And it was designed to channel funds towards developing countries to meet their climate projects. 它是被设计用来引渡气候专案基金 到开发中国家的一个机构。
It's been one of the most successful funds of its type, raising almost 10 billion dollars. 这是一个很典型的成功基金会, 他们已经举债将近 100 亿美金。
But if we use those extra SDRs that were issued, it helps governments get back on track , to meet that promise of 100 billion dollars a year that was derailed by the financial crisis. 但如果我们把这些多余发行的 SDRs 拿来使用, 它可以幫助政府重回到轨道上, 来兑现政府因金融风暴而拖沓许久的 每年 1000 亿美金的承诺。
track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪; derailed:v.(使)脱轨,出轨;(derail的过去分词和过去式)
It could also -- it could also serve as a test case . 它也可以-- 也可以用它来做测试。
test case:n.(判决同类案件可援用的)判例;
If the inflationary consequences of using SDRs in this way are benign , it could be used to justify the additional , extra issuance of SDRs, say, every five years, again, with the commitment 如果用了这笔 SDRs所造成的通膨后果是温和的, 那它就可以用来评断 比如,每五年额外发行的 SDRs所造成的冲击是否也是温和的, 当然,这要已开发国家承诺
inflationary:adj.通货膨胀的;通货膨胀倾向的;通货膨胀引起的; consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数); benign:adj.良性的;和蔼的,亲切的;吉利的; justify:v.证明合法;整理版面;替…辩护; additional:adj.附加的,额外的; issuance:n.发布,发行;
that developed-market countries would direct their share of the new reserves to the Green Climate Fund. 会直接把新增加 存底的分配额汇到
Printing international money in this way has several advantages over printing national currencies. 用这样印「国际钞票」的方式 比起直接印「国家钞票」的方式,多了很多的好处。
advantages:n.有利条件; v.有利于;
The first is it's really easy to argue that spending money to mitigate climate change benefits everyone. 第一,花钱来减缓气候变迁对大家都有好处, 这一点大家不会有甚么意见的。
spending money:n.零花钱;零用钱; mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻;vi.减轻,缓和下来;
No one section of society benefits from the printing press over another. 无论哪一国的印刷机印钱,都没有人可从中获取额外的利益,
printing press:n.印刷机;
That problem of competing claims is mitigated . 争相申请印钱的问题是很小的。
competing:adj.相互冲突的;相互矛盾的;v.竞争;对抗;参加比赛;(compete的现在分词) claims:v.宣称; n.声明; (claim的第三人称单数和复数) mitigated:v.减轻;缓和;(mitigate的过去分词和过去式)
It's also fair to say that because it takes so many countries to agree to issue these extra SDRs, it's highly unlikely that money printing would get out of control. 可以很公平地说, 这样可以让很多国家同意发行额外的 SDRs, 因为这样印钱的方式不太可能会不受控制。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的;
What you end up with is a collective, global action aimed -- and it's controlled global action -- aimed at a global good. 毕竟你最终是一个全球的集体行为, 一个大家目标一致可控的集体行为, 目的就是为了地球好。
And, as we've learned with the money-printing schemes , whatever concerns we have can be allayed by rules. 而且, 因为我们已经有印钞票的经验, 无论大家有甚么顾虑,都可以透过规则来排除。
schemes:n.方案,计划;阴谋(scheme的复数);v.计划,设计;谋划(scheme的三单形式); concerns:n.关注; v.使关心(concern的三单形式); allayed:vt.减轻;使缓和;使平静;
So, for example, the issuance of these extra SDRs every five years could be capped , such that this international currency is never more than five percent of global foreign exchange reserves. 例如, 可以限制这些每五年额外发行的国际货币 SDRs 的总金额 , 不能超过全球外汇存底的5%。
capped:v.给…戴帽; adj.包过的;
That's important because it would allay well, let's say, the ridiculous concerns that the US might have that the SDR could ever challenge the dollar's dominant role in international finance. 这很重要,因为这样做可以避免掉一些可笑的疑虑, 比如说,有人会质疑这些 SDRs 会挑战 美元在国际金融市场的主导地位。
ridiculous:adj.可笑的;荒谬的; dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性;
And in fact, 而事实上,
I think the only thing that the SDR would likely steal from the dollar under this scheme is its nickname , the " greenback ." 我认为唯一可能发生的事就是,SDR 在这个计画里下,可能会以 美元的计价方式来发行, 也就是俗称的「绿背」（美金）
nickname:n.绰号;昵称;v.给…取绰号;叫错名字; greenback:n.美钞;绿背动物;
Because even with that cap in place, the IMF could have followed up its issuance -- its massive issuance of SDRs in 2009 -- with a further 200 billion dollars of SDRs in 2014. 因为即使有限额的规定, 国际货币基金组织也会追踪它的发行状况-- 包括 2009 年大量发行的 SDRs, 以及 2014 年追加2000 亿美金的 SDRs。
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
So hypothetically , that would mean that developed countries could have contributed up to 300 billion dollars' worth of SDRs to the Green Climate Fund. 假设, 如果这意味着,已开发国家需要 贡献价值 3000 亿美金的 SDRs 到绿色气候基金会。
hypothetically:adv.假设地;假想地; contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词)
That's 30 times what it has today. 这个数字是当今规模的 30 倍。
And you know, as spectacular as that sounds, it's only just beginning to look like "whatever it takes." 你可能会觉得 这数字听起来相当惊人, 但这仅是「不计代价」的刚开始而已。
spectacular:adj.壮观的;壮丽的;令人惊叹的;n.壮观的场面;精彩的表演;
And just to think what amazing things could be done with that money, consider this: in 2009, 想一下这笔钱可以为我们带来甚么惊艳的事, 想一下这件事: 2009 年,
Norway promised one billion dollars of its reserves to Brazil if they followed through on their goals on deforestation . 挪威答应,如果巴西遵守森林砍伐的目标, 他们要给巴西 10 亿美金的外汇存底。
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐;
That program has since delivered a 70 percent reduction in deforestation in the past decade. 这个计画在过去十年,已经减少 70% 的森林砍伐。
reduction:n.减少;缩小;降低;减价;折扣;缩图;
That's saving 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions , which is the equivalent of taking all American cars off the roads for three whole years. 也就是减少了 32 亿吨 相当于全美国汽车三年的排放量。
carbon dioxide:二氧化碳; emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数) equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
So what could we do with 300 other pay-for-performance climate projects like that, organized on a global scale ? 所以,如果也有其它300个像这样的 「看表现付钱」的气候专案,的方式把它组织起来？ 我们要如何以全球规模的方式把它组织起来？
organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
We could take cars off the roads for a generation. 我们可以减少一个世代的汽车碳排。
let's not quibble about whether we can afford to fund climate change. 让我们不要再狡辩我们是否有能力可以支付提供改善气候变迁的资金。
quibble:n.谬论;双关语;遁辞;vi.诡辩;挑剔;说模棱两可的话;vt.对…诡辩; afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
The real question is: 真正的问题是:
Do we care enough about future generations to take the very same policy risks we took to save the financial system? 我们是否真的够关心我们未来的子子孙孙？ 并再次承担类似拯救金融系统时的政策风险？
After all, we could do it, we did do it and we are doing it today. 毕竟, 我们做得到, 我们也曾经做到, 而我们今天就要开始做。
We must, must, must do "whatever it takes." 我们必须、必须、必须、再次的「不计代价」。
Thank you. 谢谢各位！
(Applause) （掌声）