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MichaelMetcalfe_2013S-_我们需要金钱来援助贫穷，一起来印钞票吧！_
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| Thirteen years ago, we set ourselves a goal to end poverty . |
十三年前 我們為自己設立了 終止貧窮的目標。 |
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poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
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| After some success, we've hit a big hurdle . |
在幾次成功的經驗後, 我們遇上了大障礙。 |
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hurdle:n.障碍;栏;跳栏;vt.克服;vi.克服;跳过;
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| The aftermath of the financial crisis has begun to hit aid payments , which have fallen for two consecutive years. |
財務危機的餘波 開始影響救濟金, 目前已經連續兩年金額不足。 |
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aftermath:n.后果;余波; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; payments:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答;(payment的复数) consecutive:adj.连贯的;连续不断的;
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| My question is whether the lessons learned from saving the financial system can be used to help us overcome that hurdle and help millions. |
我想問的問題是 我們在拯救金融系統中學到的教訓 是否能幫助我們 解決這個障礙, 且幫助數以萬計需要援助的人？ |
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overcome:vt.克服;胜过;vi.克服;得胜;
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| Can we simply print money for aid? |
我們是否可以光靠 「印鈔票」來解決問題？ |
| '"Surely not." |
「當然不行！」 |
| It's a common reaction . |
這是最常見的反應。 |
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reaction:n.反应,感应;反动,复古;反作用;
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| (Laughter) |
(觀眾笑聲) |
| It's a quick talk. |
「只是說說罷了別當真。」 |
| Others channel John McEnroe. |
有些人可能會用約翰? 這麼回答... |
| '"You cannot be serious!" |
「你肯定在開玩笑！」 |
| Now, I can't do the accent , but I am serious, thanks to these two children, who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart of my talk. |
我學不上他的語氣, 但我沒在開玩笑, 幸虧有這兩位小孩, 你們等等會明白 他們是我這段演講的主角。 |
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accent:n.口音;重音;强调;特点;重音符号;v.强调;重读;带…口音讲话;
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| On the left, we have Pia. |
左邊這位是皮雅, |
| She lives in England. |
她住在英格蘭, |
| She has two loving parents, one of whom is standing right here. |
有和藹可親的雙親, 其中一位 正站在這個講台上。 |
| Dorothy, on the right, lives in rural Kenya. |
右邊這位是桃樂思 住在肯亞農村, |
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rural:adj.农村的,乡下的;田园的,有乡村风味的;
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| She's one of 13,000 orphans and vulnerable children who are assisted by a charity that I support. |
她是一萬三千名孤兒?其中一名, 是位孤苦無依的小孩, 目前正由我支持的慈善機構協助。 |
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orphans:n.孤儿(orphan的复数);v.成为孤儿(orphan的三单形式); vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的; charity:n.慈善;施舍;慈善团体;宽容;施舍物;
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| I do that because I believe that Dorothy, like Pia, deserves the best life chances that we can afford to give her. |
我會這麼做是因為,我相信 桃樂思 就跟皮雅一樣, 值得擁有更好的人生機會, 如果我們可以負擔得起她們的生活。 |
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deserves:v.值得;应得;应受;(deserve的第三人称单数) afford:v.给予,提供;买得起;
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| You'll all agree with me, I'm sure. |
你們大家都會同意?這點我肯定, |
| The U.N. agrees too. |
聯合國也同意。 |
| Their overriding aim for international aid is to strive for a life of dignity for all. |
他們針對國際援助上 跨領域的目標 便是為每個人 爭取生存尊嚴。 |
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overriding:adj.高于一切的,最重要的;v.践踏;压垮;不顾(override的ing形式); strive for:争取,奋斗; dignity:n.尊严;高贵;
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| But -- and here's that hurdle -- can we afford our aid aspirations ? |
不過...出現障礙了, 我們要如何擔負起 這股對援助的熱心？ |
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aspirations:n.愿望;
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| History suggests not. |
歷史證據顯示,我們辦不到。 |
| In 1970, governments set themselves a target to increase overseas aid payments to 0.7 percent of their national income. |
1970年,政府設立一個目標, 將海外援助津貼數值增加到 國民收入的 百分之0.7(%)。 |
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overseas:adv.在海外,海外;adj.海外的,国外的;
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| As you can see , a big gap opens up between actual aid and that target. |
誠如你們看到的, 在實際援助經費與目標數值之間 有條巨大的鴻溝。 |
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As you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的; gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开;
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| But then come the Millennium Development Goals, eight ambitious targets |
不過在這之後 我們推行千禧發展目標, 八項充滿企圖心的目標 |
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Millennium:n.千年期,千禧年;一千年,千年纪念;太平盛世,黄金时代; ambitious:adj.野心勃勃的;有雄心的;热望的;炫耀的;
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| If I tell you that just one of those targets is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty, you get a sense of the ambition . |
如果我告訴你其中一個目標 是要徹底根除飢餓與貧窮, 你馬上就能感受到 設立這些目標的雄心。 |
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eradicate:vt.根除,根绝;消灭; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; ambition:n.追求的目标;野心;志向;抱负;
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| There's also been some success. |
過去有些成功的案例。 |
| The number of people living on less than $1.25 a day has halved . |
全球每天只靠1.25美元維生的人數 已經減少一半, |
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halved:v.对半分开;均分;把…减半(halve的过去式和过去分词);
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| But a lot remains to be done in two years. |
但還是有許多問題?接下來兩年的時間來作改善。 |
| One in eight remain hungry. |
全球每8個人中 就有1個人受挨餓。 |
| In the context of this auditorium , the front two rows aren't going to get any food. |
以這個講廳 來給你們打比方, 這代表著前兩排的?會沒有食物可吃, |
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context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; auditorium:n.礼堂,会堂;观众席;
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| We can't settle for that, which is why the concern about the eighth goal, which relates to funding , which I said at the beginning is falling, is so troubling. |
我們不能滿足於這樣的事實, 因此我們的第八項目標設立的中旨 跟金援補助有關, 我在前面已提到, 它正在下降, 這著實令人不安。 |
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settle for:满足于; concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; funding:n.基金;资金;提供资金;v.为…提供资金;拨款给;(fund的现在分词) at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始;
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| So what can be done? |
所以能做甚麼來補救呢？ |
| Well, I work in financial markets, not development. |
我曾任職於金融市場, 與它的發展無關, |
| I study the behavior of investors, how they react to policy and the economy . |
我研究投資者行為, 研究他們對政策與經濟環境會有甚麼反應。 |
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policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
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| It gives me a different angle on the aid issue . |
這讓我能以不同的?援助金議題的運作。 |
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issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
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| But it took an innocent question from my then-four-year-old daughter to make me appreciate that. |
我女兒在四歲時曾問我 一個聽起來天真的問題, 卻讓我有如當頭棒喝。 |
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innocent:adj.无辜的;无罪的;无知的;n.天真的人;笨蛋; appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解;
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| Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe and we passed a man collecting for charity. |
皮雅和我在到咖啡廳的途中, 我們遇到一位男士正為慈善機構募款。 |
| I didn't have any change to give him, and she was disappointed. |
我身上沒有零錢可以給他, 皮雅覺得很失望。 |
| Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book and starts scribbling . |
進到咖啡廳時 皮雅拿出插畫本 開始塗鴉。 |
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scribbling:n.预梳,乱涂;v.乱涂,乱写(scribble的现在分词形式);
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| After a little while, I ask her what she's doing, and she shows me a drawing of a ￡5 note to give to the man outside. |
一會後, 我問她在做甚麼, 皮雅將她的畫 遞過來給我, 是一張五鎊的紙鈔, 想給剛剛那位在募款的男人。 |
| It's so sweet, and more generous than Dad would have been. |
這舉動真的貼心, 比任何人的爸爸都還要來的慷慨。 |
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generous:adj.慷慨的,大方的;宽宏大量的;有雅量的;
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| But of course I explained to her, "You can't do that; it's not allowed." |
不過,當然,我對她解釋: 「你不能這麼做,這是不被允許的。」 |
| To which I get the classic four-year-old response : "Why not?" |
接著我得到 所有四歲小孩都會有的反應: 「為什麼不行？」 |
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classic:n.名著;优秀的典范;adj.最优秀的;第一流的;有代表性的;典型的; response:n.响应;反应;回答;
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| Now I'm excited, because I actually think |
這時我感到興奮, 因為我知道 |
| I can answer this time. |
這次我知道怎麼回答這個問題。 |
| So I launch into an explanation of how an unlimited supply of money chasing a limited number of goods sends prices to the moon. |
所以我開始對她解釋為甚麼不行, 如果現金無限供應, 商品價格會隨著有限的物資上漲, 這會使商品價格 漲到月球那麼高。 |
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launch into:进入,投入; unlimited:adj.无限制的;无限量的;无条件的;
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| Something about that exchange stuck with me, not because of the look of relief on Pia's face when I finally finished, but because it related to the sanctity of the money supply , a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned by the reaction of central banks to the financial crisis. |
這個銀貨兩訖的概?讓我停頓了一會, 並不是因為在我解?看到皮雅臉上露出 恍然大悟的表情, 卻是因為這個概念 讓我聯想起 獲取金錢來源的道德觀, 這個道德觀 一直以來備受中央銀行 質疑與挑戰 對金錢供需配給的態度 導致金融財務危機。 |
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exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换; relief:n.救济;减轻,解除;安慰;浮雕; finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; sanctity:n.圣洁;尊严;神圣不可侵犯性; money supply:n.货币供应量;
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| To reassure investors, central banks began buying assets to try and encourage investors to do the same. |
為了讓投資者安心, 中央銀行開始買各項資產, 只為了鼓勵投資者一同跟進, |
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reassure:vt.使…安心,使消除疑虑; assets:n.资产;宝贵的人材;(一项)财物;资产;(asset的名词复数)
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| They funded these purchases with money they created themselves. |
他們針對某些資產?進行補助, 用那些從投資無形?錢滾出來的錢。 |
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funded:adj.提供资金的;v.提供资金;积存;提供资金偿付的本息;(fund的过去式); purchases:v.[贸易]购买; n.所购物;
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| The money wasn't actually physically printed. |
這類錢滾錢的獲利 從未被實體印製出來, |
| It's still sort of locked away in the banking system today. |
直到今日這些錢仍?銀行系統中循環。 |
| But the amount created was unprecedented . |
不過這些錢滾錢所?數目之大是史無前例！ |
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unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的;
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| Together, the central banks of the U.S., |
美國、英國與日本...等 |
| U.K and Japan increased the stock of money in their economies by 3.7 trillion dollars. |
這些國家中央銀行 在他們經濟中總共增加了 3兆7000億美元之多。 |
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stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
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| That's three times, in fact that's more than three times, the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation . |
這是三倍！事實上. 比三倍還多！ 比起實體流通的貨幣... 多出三倍。 |
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physical:adj.[物]物理的;身体的;物质的;符合自然法则的;n.体格检查; circulation:n.流通,传播;循环;发行量;
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| Three times! |
三倍之多！ |
| Before the crisis, this would have been utterly unthinkable , yet it was accepted remarkably quickly. |
在金融危機之前, 不會有人想得到這個數字, 但大眾也很快視為理所當然。 |
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utterly:adv.完全地;绝对地;全然地;彻底地,十足地; unthinkable:adj.不能想象的;过分的; remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地
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| The price of gold, an asset thought to protect against inflation , did jump, but investors bought other assets that offered little protection from inflation. |
黃金的價格 被用來當作抵制通貨膨脹的資產, 出現上漲趨勢, 但投資者買下其它資產, 那些資產只對市場 通貨膨脹有一些保護作用。 |
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protect against:使免受; inflation:n.膨胀;通货膨胀;夸张;自命不凡;
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| They bought fixed income securities, bonds. |
他們大筆買進 固定收入證券、債券... |
| They bought equities too. |
... 也投資股票。 |
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equities:n.股票(equity的复数);权益;股本;公平;
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| For all the scare stories, the actual actions of investors spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence . |
所有恐怖故事當中, 投資者的實際行為 都說明了迅速的接受和信任。 |
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acceptance:n.验收;接受;认可;承认; confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的;
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| That confidence was based on two pillars . |
投資者的投資信心 主要建立在兩個基礎上。 |
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pillars:n.柱子;柱状物;台柱(pillar的复数);v.用柱支持(pillar的第三人称单数);
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| The first was that, after years of keeping inflation under control, central banks were trusted to take the money-printing away if inflation became a threat. |
第一個基礎便是 中央銀行經過幾年控管通貨膨脹成效穩定, 大眾信任並授權中央銀行在通貨膨脹發生時 有停止印鈔票的權力, 前提是通貨膨脹變成威脅 |
| Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat. |
第二個基礎是 通貨膨脹有史以來並未構成重大威脅。 |
| As you can see, in the United States, inflation for most of this period remained below average. |
你們看看目前的美國市場, 通貨膨脹在這個時期 大部分時間維持在平均數之下。 |
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United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
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| It was the same elsewhere . |
這情形在世界各地皆如此。 |
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elsewhere:adv.在别处;到别处;
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| So how does all this relate to aid? |
所以這一切又如何跟金援扯上關係？ |
| Well, this is where Dorothy and the Mango Tree charity that supports her comes in. |
很好,這就是桃樂思 跟支持她生計的芒果樹基金會 來到我談話重點的時刻。 |
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Mango:n.芒果;
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| I was at one of their fundraising events earlier this year, and I was inspired to give a one-off donation when I remembered that my firm offers to match the charitable contributions its employees make. |
當時我人在募款活動現場, 在今年初的時候 我受感動後捐出一次性的樂捐, 當我想起我任職公司提出 加倍員工募款 金額的捐款制度。 |
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fundraising:n.筹款;募捐; inspired:adj.受到启发的; v.鼓舞; (inspire的过去分词和过去式) one-off:n.一次性事物;adj.一次性的; donation:n.捐赠;捐赠物;赠送; charitable:adj.慈善事业的;慷慨的,仁慈的;宽恕的; contributions:n.捐款;捐资;定期缴款;贡献;促成作用;(contribution的复数)
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| So think of this: |
所以這裡請大家思考一下: |
| Instead of just being able to help Dorothy and four of her classmates to go through secondary school for a few years, |
以我的能力 僅能提供桃樂思 和她的四位同學 接受沒幾年的高中教育, |
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secondary school:中等学校;
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| I was able to double my contribution. |
但現在我有能力將?多增加到兩倍之多 |
| Brilliant. |
真棒！ |
| So following that conversation with my daughter, and seeing the absence of inflation in the face of money-printing, and knowing that international aid payments were falling at just the wrong time, this made me wonder: |
在跟我女兒那段談話後 看見政府決定停止印製鈔票後, 通貨膨脹並沒有發生的情況下, 又查覺到國際援助基金 正在一個錯誤的時間裡縮減中, 這使我反思: |
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absence:n.没有;缺乏;缺席;不注意; in the face of:面对;
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| Could we match but just on a much grander scale ? |
我們可以用更大規模的計劃來 加倍援助金額嗎？ |
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scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
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| Let's call this scheme "Print Aid." |
且讓我捫這麼稱呼?計畫為「印鈔援助金計劃」, |
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scheme:n.计划;方案;体系;体制;阴谋;v.密谋;图谋;想;认为;
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| And here's how it might work. |
此計畫的運作方式會這麼進行。 |
| Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so, the central bank would be mandated to match the government's overseas aid payments up to a certain limit. |
假設進行大規模金?引發通貨膨脹的風險不大, 中央銀行會依照指示 將加倍國際援助金, 增加到一定額度。 |
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Provided:conj.假如; v.提供; (provide的过去分词和过去式) central bank:n.中央银行; mandated:adj.托管的; v.强制执行; (mandate的过去分词和过去式)
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| Governments have been aiming to get aid to 0.7 percent for years, so let's set the limit at half of that, 0.35 percent of their income. |
政府持續瞄準0.7%的援助金目標, 行年已久, 不如這樣, 我們將這個目標打對折, 從年度全國國民收入中抽出0.35%。 |
| So it would work like this: If in a given year the government gave 0.2 percent of its income to overseas aid, the central bank would simply top it up with a further 0.2 percent. |
這比金額會如此分?假設在某一定年度的收入中, 政府分配0.2%的收入 至海外援助基金會, 當地中央銀行會加?這比款項數目, 等同於多捐出0.2%?給當地援助基金會。 |
| So far so good. |
到目前為止 一切聽起來都算合理。 |
| How risky is this? |
不過這之間會有甚麼風險呢？ |
| Well, this involves the creation of money to buy goods, not assets. |
這麼說好了, 這筆被印製出來的鈔票 會用來買實際生活?不是用來投資。 |
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involves:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加,加入(involve的第三人称单数) creation:n.创造,创作;创作物,产物;
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| It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it. |
這一切聽起來根本?通貨膨脹的催化劑...你說是不是？ |
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inflationary:adj.通货膨胀的;通货膨胀倾向的;通货膨胀引起的;
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| But there are two important mitigating factors here. |
不過呢,卻有兩個 緩衝通貨膨漲的因素。 |
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mitigating:adj.可考虑从轻处置的情节(或因素)v.减轻;缓和;(mitigate的现在分词) factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商;
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| The first is that by definition , this money printed would be spent overseas. |
首先,按照規定, 被印出來的這筆錢僅限於海外使用。 |
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definition:n.定义;清晰度;(尤指词典里的词或短语的)释义;解释;
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| So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation in the country doing the actual printing unless it leads to a currency depreciation of that country. |
因此這筆錢 對印鈔國家的市場 造成的通貨膨脹影響不會明顯, 除非大量印鈔 造成該國幣值貶值。 |
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obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; currency:n.货币;通货; depreciation:n.折旧;贬值;
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| That is unlikely for the second reason: the scale of the money that would be printed under this scheme. |
不過,依照第二點?貨幣貶值的可能性不大, 原因是紙鈔數量 是在這計劃實行下 印製出來的。 |
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unlikely:adj.不大可能发生的;非心目中的;非想象的;难以相信的;
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| So let's think of an example where Print Aid was in place in the U.S., U.K. and Japan. |
在此我們拿幾個國家當例子, 像美國、英國及日本, 這些國家以印鈔票為輸出的國家 |
| To match the aid payments made by those governments over the last four years, |
為趕上過去四年來 政府對金援的支出金額, |
| Print Aid would have generated 200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid. |
印鈔計劃將印出 2000億美元的額外援助金。 |
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generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) extra:adj.额外的:n.额外的事物:adv.额外:另外:
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| What would that look like in the context of the increase in the money stock that had already happened in those countries to save the financial system? |
對於這些 在金錢儲蓄中 有長足獲利的國家來說, 實行印鈔金援的計?會帶來怎樣的效果呢？ |
| Are you read for this? |
大家都準備好 接受這樣的計劃了嗎？ |
| You might struggle to see that at the back, because the gap is quite small. |
坐在後排的人可能看不清楚, 因為這個鴻溝並不大。 |
| So what we're saying here is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble to save our financial systems, and you know what, it paid off. |
因此這等同要我們 支出3兆7000億元 來展開一場 復甦全球金融系統的賭局, 而且你們知道嗎？ 這筆錢不會是白白花掉。 |
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gamble:vi.赌博; vt.赌博; n.赌博;
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| There was no inflation. |
結果證實 通貨膨脹根本沒因此而發生。 |
| Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk to print an extra 200 billion for aid? |
我們真的擔負不起 多印個2000億元援助金的風險嗎？ |
| Would the risks really be that different? |
這個危機是否會是個轉機？ |
| To me, it's not that clear. |
對我來說 一切尚未明朗。 |
| What is clear is the impact on aid. |
唯一可以清楚的是?這筆錢對需要的人有多重要。 |
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impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
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| Even though this is the printing of just three central banks, the global aid that's given over this period is up by almost 40 percent. |
就算只從 上述三個國家的中央銀行 在此期間印出來的援助金 都會使全球慈善基金會 整整多出將近40%的經費可利用。 |
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global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
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| Aid as a proportion of national income all of a sudden is at a 40-year high. |
援助金佔國民收入總額的比例 會因此達到40年新高。 |
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proportion:n.比例;部分;份额;均衡;v.摊派;使相称; all of a sudden:突然地,出乎意料地;
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| Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent. |
現在,政府不需要?抽出國民所得0.7%的目標, |
| Governments are still incentivized to give. |
還是能照樣給予足?金額來援助需要的人。 |
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incentivized:v.对…实行物质刺激;(incentivize的过去式和过去分词)
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| But you know what, that's the point of a matching scheme. |
不過你們知道嗎？ 這就是「你捐款我加倍奉還」 |
| So I think what we've learned is that the risks from this money creation scheme are quite modest , but the benefits are potentially huge. |
因此從這個貨幣印製機制上 我們能得知 實行的風險並不大, 但其潛值上的獲利 卻非常可觀。 |
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modest:adj.些许的;谦虚的; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地;
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| Imagine what we could do with 40 percent more funding. |
想像多出40%的援助金。 |
| We might be able to feed the front row. |
我們甚至可以餵飽 所有第一排的觀眾。 |
| The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear, apart from the fact that I've run out of time, is that the window of opportunity for this idea is a short one. |
我恐懼的事情是 我唯一的恐懼是… 除了我們已經沒有時間的事實外, 就是這個想法能實現的機會 實在渺茫。 |
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run out of:用完;
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| Today, money creation by central banks is an accepted policy tool. |
今日,中央銀行印製鈔票 是大眾都接受的政策機制。 |
| That may not always be the case. |
但或許也不需都透過中央銀行印鈔。 |
| Today there are universally agreed aims for international aid. |
今日有個世界共通針對國際援助 設定的幾個目標… |
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universally:adv.普遍地;人人;到处;
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| That may not always be the case. |
但這些目標可能會改變。 |
| Today might be the only time that these two things coincide , such that we can afford the aid that we've always aspired to give. |
今天可能是唯一 讓我的想法以及國際援助 同時發生的時刻, 這樣我們負擔得起 當初立下目標要給予金援的數目。 |
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coincide:v.同时发生;相同;相符;相交;同位; aspired:v.向往;热望(aspire的过去分词);
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| So, can we print money for international aid? |
因此,我們可不可?印鈔票來進行國際慈善援助？ |
| I seriously believe the question should be, why not? |
個人深信這個問題應該得到這樣的答覆… 為甚麼不呢？ |
| Thank you very much. |
謝謝大家！ |
| (Applause) |
(觀眾掌聲) |