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MaxTegmark_2018-_如何让人工智能赋予我们力量，而非受控于它_
After 13.8 billion years of cosmic history, our universe has woken up and become aware of itself. 在 138 亿年的历史之后, 我们的宇宙终于觉醒了, 并开始有了自我意识。
cosmic:adj.宇宙的;
From a small blue planet, tiny, conscious parts of our universe have begun gazing out into the cosmos with telescopes , discovering something humbling . 从一颗蓝色的小星球, 宇宙中那些有了微小意识的部分, 开始用它们的望远镜, 窥视整个宇宙, 从而有了谦卑的发现。
conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的; gazing:v.凝视;注视;盯着;(gaze的现在分词) cosmos:n.宇宙;和谐;秩序;大波斯菊; telescopes:n.望远镜; v.套叠; (telescope的第三人称单数) humbling:adj.令人羞辱的;v.羞辱(humble的ing形式);使…谦恭;使…卑贱;
We've discovered that our universe is vastly grander than our ancestors imagined and that life seems to be an almost imperceptibly small perturbation on an otherwise dead universe. 宇宙比我们祖先所想象的 要大得多, 使得生命显得如同渺小的扰动, 小到足以被忽视, 但若没有它们的存在, 宇宙也没了生命。
vastly:adv.极大地;广大地;深远地; imperceptibly:adv.察觉不出地; perturbation:n.[数][天]摄动;不安;扰乱;
But we've also discovered something inspiring , which is that the technology we're developing has the potential to help life flourish like never before, not just for centuries but for billions of years, and not just on earth but throughout much of this amazing cosmos. 不过我们也发现了 一些振奋人心的事, 那就是我们所开发的技术, 有着前所未有的潜能 去促使生命变得更加繁盛, 不仅仅只有几个世纪, 而是持续了数十亿年; 也不仅仅是地球上, 甚至是在整个浩瀚的宇宙中。
inspiring:adj.鼓舞人心的;灌输的;v.鼓舞;激发;使感悟;(inspire的现在分词) technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的; flourish:n.兴旺; vt.夸耀; vi.繁荣,兴旺; throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
I think of the earliest life as "Life 1.0" 我把最早的生命 称之为 “生命 1.0”,
because it was really dumb , like bacteria , unable to learn anything during its lifetime. 因为它那会儿还略显蠢笨, 就像细菌,在它们的一生中, 也不会学到什么东西。
dumb:adj.哑的,无说话能力的;不说话的,无声音的; bacteria:n.[微]细菌;
I think of us humans as "Life 2.0" because we can learn, which we in nerdy , geek speak, might think of as installing new software into our brains, like languages and job skills. 我把我们人类称为 “生命 2.0”, 因为我们能够学习, 用技术宅男的话来说, 就像是在我们脑袋里 装了一个新的软件, 比如语言及工作技能。
nerdy:adj.书呆子式的;n.令人厌烦的人; geek:n.做低级滑稽表演的人,反常的人; n.(俚)极客,即智力超群,善于钻研但不懂与人交往的怪才; installing:v.安装;设置;建立(程序);(install的现在分词)
'"Life 3.0," which can design not only its software but also its hardware of course doesn't exist yet. 而“生命 3.0” 不仅能开始设计 它的软件,甚至还可以创造其硬件。 当然,它目前还不存在。
hardware:n.计算机硬件;五金器具;
But perhaps our technology has already made us "Life 2.1," 但是也许我们的科技 已经让我们走进了 “生命 2.1”,
with our artificial knees, pacemakers and cochlear implants . 因为现在我们有了人工膝盖, 心脏起搏器以及耳蜗植入技术。
artificial:adj.人造的;仿造的;虚伪的;非原产地的;武断的; pacemakers:[基医]起搏器; cochlear:adj.耳蜗的; implants:n.移植物;埋植剂(implant的复数);v.灌输(implant的第三人称单数);
So let's take a closer look at our relationship with technology, OK? 我们一起来聊聊 人类和科技的关系吧！
As an example, the Apollo 11 moon mission was both successful and inspiring, showing that when we humans use technology wisely, we can accomplish things that our ancestors could only dream of. 举个例子, 阿波罗 11 号月球任务 很成功,令人备受鼓舞, 展示出了我们人类 对于使用科技的智慧, 我们实现了很多 祖先们只能想象的事情。
Apollo:n.阿波罗(太阳神);美男子; mission:n.使命,任务;代表团;布道;v.派遣;向…传教; accomplish:v.完成;实现;达到;
But there's an even more inspiring journey propelled by something more powerful than rocket engines, where the passengers aren't just three astronauts but all of humanity . 但还有一段更加 鼓舞人心的旅程, 由比火箭引擎更加强大的 东西所推动着, 乘客也不仅仅只是三个宇航员, 而是我们全人类。
journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行; propelled:adj.推进的;v.推动;驱使(propel的过去分词); humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科;
Let's talk about our collective journey into the future with artificial intelligence . 让我们来聊聊与人工智能 一起走向未来的 这段旅程。
collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词; artificial intelligence:n.人工智能;
My friend Jaan Tallinn likes to point out that just as with rocketry , it's not enough to make our technology powerful. 我的朋友扬·塔林（Jaan Tallinn）常说, 这就像是火箭学一样, 只让我们的科技 拥有强大的力量是不够的。
rocketry:n.火箭学,火箭技术;火箭(集合称);火箭研究;
We also have to figure out, if we're going to be really ambitious , how to steer it and where we want to go with it. 如果我们有足够的 雄心壮志,就应当想出 如何控制它们的方法, 希望它朝着怎样的方向前进。
ambitious:adj.野心勃勃的;有雄心的;热望的;炫耀的; steer:v.引导;控制;操纵;驾驶(船、汽车等);n.建议;劝告;忠告;阉公牛;
So let's talk about all three for artificial intelligence: the power, the steering and the destination. 那么对于人工智能, 我们先来谈谈这三点: 力量,操控和目的地。
steering:n.(车辆等的)转向装置;v.驾驶;掌控方向盘;行驶;控制(steer的现在分词)
Let's start with the power. 我们先来说力量。
I define intelligence very inclusively -- simply as our ability to accomplish complex goals, because I want to include both biological and artificial intelligence. 我对于人工智能的定义非常全面—— 就是我们能够完成复杂目标的能力, 因为我想把生物学 和人工智能都包含进去。
define:v.定义;使明确;规定; inclusively:adv.包含地;在内地; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; biological:adj.生物学的;生物的;与生命过程有关的;加酶的;n.[药]生物制品;
And I want to avoid the silly carbon-chauvinism idea that you can only be smart if you're made of meat. 我还想要避免愚蠢的 碳沙文主义的观点, 即你认为如果你很聪明, 你就一定有着肉身。
It's really amazing how the power of AI has grown recently . 人工智能的力量 在近期的发展十分惊人。
recently:adv.最近;新近;
Just think about it. 试想一下。
Not long ago, robots couldn't walk. 甚至在不久以前, 机器人还不能走路呢。
Now, they can do backflips . 现在,它们居然开始后空翻了。
backflips:[跳水,体操等]后空翻;表演后空翻;
Not long ago, we didn't have self-driving cars. 不久以前, 我们还没有全自动驾驶汽车。
self-driving:自驾;
Now, we have self-flying rockets. 现在,我们都有 自动飞行的火箭了。
Not long ago, 不久以前,
AI couldn't do face recognition . 人工智能甚至不能完成脸部识别。
recognition:n.识别;认识;承认;认可;
Now, AI can generate fake faces and simulate your face saying stuff that you never said. 现在,人工智能都开始 生成仿真面貌了, 并模拟你的脸部表情, 说出你从未说过的话。
generate:v.产生;引起; fake:n.假货;骗子;假动作;v.捏造;假装…的样子;adj.伪造的; simulate:vt.模仿;假装;冒充;adj.模仿的;假装的; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
Not long ago, 不久以前,
AI couldn't beat us at the game of Go. 人工智能还不能在围棋中战胜人类,
Then, Google DeepMind's AlphaZero AI took 3,000 years of human Go games and Go wisdom , ignored it all and became the world's best player by just playing against itself. 然后,谷歌的DeepMind推出的 AlphaZero 就掌握了人类三千多年的 围棋比赛和智慧, 通过和自己对战的方式轻松秒杀我们, 成了全球最厉害的围棋手。
Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问; ignored:v.忽视;对…不予理会;佯装未见;不予理睬;(ignore的过去分词和过去式)
And the most impressive feat here wasn't that it crushed human gamers , but that it crushed human AI researchers who had spent decades handcrafting game-playing software. 这里最让人印象深刻的部分, 不是它击垮了人类棋手, 而是它击垮了人类人工智能的研究者, 这些研究者花了数十年 手工打造了下棋软件。
impressive:adj.感人的;令人钦佩的;给人以深刻印象的; feat:n.功绩,壮举;技艺表演;adj.合适的;灵巧的; crushed:v.压坏;压伤;挤压变形;(crush的过去分词和过去式) gamers:n.游戏玩家; handcrafting:n.手工;v.用手工制作;(handcrafting是handcraft的现在分词); game-playing:博弈;
And AlphaZero crushed human AI researchers not just in Go but even at chess, which we have been working on since 1950. 此外,AlphaZero也在国际象棋比赛中 轻松战胜了人类的人工智能研究者们, 我们从 1950 年 就开始致力于国际象棋研究。
So all this amazing recent progress in AI really begs the question: 所以近来,这些惊人的 人工智能进步,让大家不禁想问:
How far will it go? 它到底能达到怎样的程度？
I like to think about this question in terms of this abstract landscape of tasks, where the elevation represents how hard it is for AI to do each task at human level, and the sea level represents what AI can do today. 我在思考这个问题时, 想从工作任务中的抽象地景来切入, 图中的海拔高度表示 人工智能要把每一项工作 做到人类的水平的难度, 海平面表示现今的 人工智能所达到的水平。
abstract:n.摘要; adj.抽象的; vt.摘要; vi.做摘要; landscape:n.景观;乡村风景画;(文件的)横向打印格式;v.对…做景观美化;美化…的环境; elevation:n.高地;海拔;提高;崇高;正面图; represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数) sea level:海平面;
The sea level is rising as AI improves , so there's a kind of global warming going on here in the task landscape. 随着人工智能的进步, 海平面会上升, 所以在这工作任务地景上, 有着类似全球变暖的后果。
improves:v.改进;改善;(improve的第三人称单数) global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖;
And the obvious takeaway is to avoid careers at the waterfront -- 很显然,我们要避免 从事那些近海区的工作——
obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; careers:n.职业(career的复数);事业;职业生涯;v.全速前进(career的三单形式); waterfront:n.滩,海滨;水边;adj.滨水区的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
which will soon be automated and disrupted . 这些工作不会一直由人来完成, 迟早要被自动化取代。
automated:adj.自动化的;v.(使)自动化;(automate的过去式和过去分词) disrupted:破坏;使瓦解;使分裂;使中断;使陷于混乱(disrupt的过去分词形式);
But there's a much bigger question as well. 然而同时,还存在一个很大的问题,
How high will the water end up rising? 水平面最后会升到多高？
Will it eventually rise to flood everything, matching human intelligence at all tasks. 它最后是否会升高到淹没一切, 人工智能会不会 最终能胜任所有的工作？
eventually:adv.最后,终于;
This is the definition of artificial general intelligence -- 这就成了通用人工智能 （Artificial general intelligence）——
definition:n.定义;清晰度;(尤指词典里的词或短语的)释义;解释;
AGI, which has been the holy grail of AI research since its inception . 缩写是 AGI, 从一开始它就是 人工智能研究最终的圣杯。
holy grail:na.圣杯; inception:n.起初;获得学位;n.《盗梦空间》(电影名);
By this definition, people who say, "Ah, there will always be jobs that humans can do better than machines," 根据这个定义,有人说, “总是有些工作, 人类可以做得比机器好的。”
are simply saying that we'll never get AGI. 意思就是,我们永远不会有 AGI。
Sure, we might still choose to have some human jobs or to give humans income and purpose with our jobs, but AGI will in any case transform life as we know it with humans no longer being the most intelligent . 当然,我们可以仍然 保留一些人类的工作, 或者说,通过我们的工作 带给人类收入和生活目标, 但是不论如何, AGI 都会转变我们对生命的认知, 人类或许不再是最有智慧的了。
in any case:无论如何; transform:v.使改变;使改观;使转换;n.[数]变换式;[化]反式; intelligent:adj.有才智的;悟性强的;聪明的;有智力的
Now, if the water level does reach AGI, then further AI progress will be driven mainly not by humans but by AI, which means that there's a possibility that further AI progress could be way faster 如果海平面真的 上升到 AGI 的高度, 那么进一步的人工智能进展 将会由人工智能来引领,而非人类, 那就意味着有可能, 进一步提升人工智能水平 将会进行得非常迅速,
mainly:adv.大多;大部分;主要地;首要地;
than the typical human research and development timescale of years, raising the controversial possibility of an intelligence explosion where recursively self-improving AI rapidly leaves human intelligence far behind, creating what's known as superintelligence. 甚至超越用年份来计算时间的 典型人类研究和发展, 提高到一种极具争议性的可能性, 那就是智能爆炸, 即能够不断做自我改进的人工智能 很快就会遥遥领先人类, 创造出所谓的超级人工智能。
typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的; research and development:n.研究和开发; timescale:时间量程;时标; controversial:adj.有争议的;有争论的; explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增; recursively:adv.递归地;递回地;
Alright, reality check : 好了,回归现实:
reality check:n.(提醒人面对现实而不再想当然的)现实感检验;
Are we going to get AGI any time soon? 我们很快就会有 AGI 吗？
Some famous AI researchers, like Rodney Brooks, think it won't happen for hundreds of years. 一些著名的 AI 研究者, 如罗德尼 · 布鲁克斯 （Rodney Brooks), 认为一百年内是没有可能的。
But others, like Google DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis, are more optimistic and are working to try to make it happen much sooner. 但是其他人,如谷歌DeepMind公司的 创始人德米斯 · 哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis） 就比较乐观, 且努力想要它尽早实现。
founder:vi.失败;沉没;倒塌;变跛;vt.破坏;使摔倒;垮掉;n.创始人;建立者;翻沙工; optimistic:adj.乐观的;乐观主义的;
And recent surveys have shown that most AI researchers actually share Demis's optimism , expecting that we will get AGI within decades, so within the lifetime of many of us, which begs the question -- and then what? 近期的调查显示, 大部分的人工智能研究者 其实都和德米斯一样持乐观态度, 预期我们十年内就会有 AGI, 所以我们中许多人 在有生之年就能看到, 这就让人不禁想问—— 那么接下来呢？
surveys:n.调查(survey的复数); optimism:n.乐观;乐观主义;
What do we want the role of humans to be if machines can do everything better and cheaper than us? 如果什么事情机器 都能做得比人好, 成本也更低,那么人类 又该扮演怎样的角色？
The way I see it, we face a choice. 依我所见,我们面临一个选择。
One option is to be complacent . 选择之一是要自我满足。
option:n.选择;可选择的东西; complacent:adj.自满的;得意的;满足的;
We can say, "Oh, let's just build machines that can do everything we can do and not worry about the consequences . 我们可以说,“我们来建造机器, 让它来帮助我们做一切事情, 不要担心后果,
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
Come on, if we build technology that makes all humans obsolete , what could possibly go wrong?" 拜托,如果我们能打造出 让全人类都被淘汰的机器, 还有什么会出错吗？”
obsolete:adj.废弃的;老式的;n.废词;陈腐的人;vt.淘汰;废弃;
(Laughter) （笑声）
But I think that would be embarrassingly lame . 但我觉得那样真是差劲到悲哀。
embarrassingly:adv.使人尴尬地;令人难堪地; lame:adj.瘸的; n.(金属)薄板; v.使残废;
I think we should be more ambitious -- in the spirit of TED. 我们认为我们应该更有野心—— 带着 TED 的精神。
Let's envision a truly inspiring high-tech future and try to steer towards it. 让我们来想象一个 真正鼓舞人心的高科技未来, 并试着朝着它前进。
envision:v.想象;预想; high-tech:adj.高科技的,高技术的;仿真技术的;n.高科技;
This brings us to the second part of our rocket metaphor : the steering. 这就把我们带到了火箭比喻的 第二部分:操控。
metaphor:n.暗喻,隐喻;比喻说法;
We're making AI more powerful, but how can we steer towards a future where AI helps humanity flourish rather than flounder ? 我们让人工智能的力量更强大, 但是我们要如何朝着 人工智能帮助人类未来更加繁盛, 而非变得挣扎的目标不断前进呢？
flounder:vi.挣扎,折腾;错乱地做事或说话;n.挣扎,辗转;比目鱼;
To help with this, 为了协助实现它,
I cofounded the Future of Life Institute . 我联合创办了 “未来生命研究所” （Future of Life Institute）。
Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院;
It's a small nonprofit promoting beneficial technology use, and our goal is simply for the future of life to exist and to be as inspiring as possible. 它是个小型的非营利机构, 旨在促进有益的科技使用, 我们的目标很简单, 就是希望生命的未来能够存在, 且越是鼓舞人心越好。
nonprofit:adj.非赢利的;不以赢利为目的的; promoting:v.促进;推动;促销;提升;晋升;(promote的现在分词) beneficial:adj.有益的,有利的;可享利益的;
You know, I love technology. 你们知道的,我爱科技。
Technology is why today is better than the Stone Age . 现今之所以比石器时代更好, 就是因为科技。
Stone Age:n.石器时代;
And I'm optimistic that we can create a really inspiring high-tech future ... 我很乐观的认为我们能创造出 一个非常鼓舞人心的高科技未来……
if -- and this is a big if -- if we win the wisdom race -- the race between the growing power of our technology and the growing wisdom with which we manage it. 如果——这个 “如果” 很重要—— 如果我们能赢得这场 关于智慧的赛跑—— 这场赛跑的两位竞争者 便是我们不断成长的科技力量 以及我们用来管理科技的 不断成长的智慧。
But this is going to require a change of strategy because our old strategy has been learning from mistakes. 但这也需要策略上的改变。 因为我们以往的策略 往往都是从错误中学习的。
strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;
We invented fire, screwed up a bunch of times -- invented the fire extinguisher . 我们发明了火, 因为搞砸了很多次—— 我们发明出了灭火器。
screwed:v.用螺丝固定;旋紧;拧紧;拧上去;(screw的过去分词和过去式) a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; fire extinguisher:n.灭火器;
(Laughter) （笑声）
We invented the car, screwed up a bunch of times -- invented the traffic light , the seat belt and the airbag , but with more powerful technology like nuclear weapons and AGI, learning from mistakes is a lousy strategy, don't you think? 我们发明了汽车, 又一不小心搞砸了很多次—— 发明了红绿灯,安全带 和安全气囊, 但对于更强大的科技, 像是核武器和 AGI, 要去从错误中学习, 似乎是个比较糟糕的策略, 你们怎么看？
traffic light:交通灯 seat belt:n.(汽车或飞机上的)安全带; airbag:n.安全气囊(遇车祸时充气保护车内的人); nuclear:adj.原子能的;[细胞]细胞核的;中心的;原子核的; lousy:adj.非常糟的;极坏的;恶劣的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
It's much better to be proactive rather than reactive; plan ahead and get things right the first time because that might be the only time we'll get. 事前的准备比事后的 补救要好得多; 提早做计划,争取一次成功, 因为有时我们或许 没有第二次机会。
proactive:adj.前摄的(前一活动中的因素对后一活动造成影响的);
But it is funny because sometimes people tell me, "Max, shhh, don't talk like that. 但有趣的是, 有时候有人告诉我。 “麦克斯,嘘——别那样说话。
That's Luddite scaremongering ." 那是勒德分子（注:持有反机械化, 反自动化观点的人）在制造恐慌。“
Luddite:n.鲁德分子;强烈反对提高机械化和自动化者; scaremongering:n.散布谣言的人;
But it's not scaremongering. 但这并不是制造恐慌。
It's what we at MIT call safety engineering . 在麻省理工学院, 我们称之为安全工程。
engineering:n.工程;工程学;v.密谋策划;设计制造;改变…的基因;(engineer的现在分词)
Think about it: before NASA launched the Apollo 11 mission, they systematically thought through everything that could go wrong when you put people on top of explosive fuel tanks and launch them somewhere where no one could help them. 想想看: 在美国航天局（NASA） 部署阿波罗 11 号任务之前, 他们全面地设想过 所有可能出错的状况, 毕竟是要把人类放进 易燃易爆的太空舱里, 再将他们发射上 一个无人能助的境遇。
launched:v.发射;发起;开展;开始;(launch的过去式和过去分词) systematically:adv.有系统地;有组织地; explosive:n.炸药;爆炸物;adj.易爆炸的;可能引起爆炸的;易爆发的;可能引起冲动的;
And there was a lot that could go wrong. 可能出错的情况非常多,
Was that scaremongering? 那是在制造恐慌吗？
No. 不是。
That's was precisely the safety engineering that ensured the success of the mission, and that is precisely the strategy I think we should take with AGI. 那正是在做安全工程的工作, 以确保任务顺利进行, 这正是我认为处理 AGI 时 应该采取的策略。
ensured:v.保证;担保;确保(ensure的过去分词和过去式)
Think through what can go wrong to make sure it goes right. 想清楚什么可能出错, 然后避免它的发生。
Think through:彻底地想清楚;
So in this spirit, we've organized conferences , bringing together leading AI researchers and other thinkers to discuss how to grow this wisdom we need to keep AI beneficial. 基于这样的精神, 我们组织了几场大会, 邀请了世界顶尖的人工智能研究者 和其他有想法的专业人士, 来探讨如何发展这样的智慧, 从而确保人工智能对人类有益。
organized:adj.有组织的; v.组织; (organize的过去分词和过去式) conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式);
Our last conference was in Asilomar, California last year and produced this list of 23 principles which have since been signed by over 1,000 AI researchers and key industry leaders, and I want to tell you about three of these principles. 我们最近的一次大会 去年在加州的阿西洛玛举行, 我们得出了 23 条原则, 自此已经有超过 1000 位 人工智能研究者,以及核心企业的 领导人参与签署。 我想要和各位分享 其中的三项原则。
principles:n.原则;主义;本质;政策;(principle的复数)
One is that we should avoid an arms race and lethal autonomous weapons. 第一,我们需要避免军备竞赛, 以及致命的自动化武器出现。
arms race:n.军备竞赛; lethal:adj.致命的,致死的;n.致死因子; autonomous:adj.自治的;自主的;自发的;
The idea here is that any science can be used for new ways of helping people or new ways of harming people. 其中的想法是,任何科学都可以 用新的方式来帮助人们, 同样也可以以新的方式 对我们造成伤害。
For example, biology and chemistry are much more likely to be used for new medicines or new cures than for new ways of killing people, because biologists and chemists pushed hard -- and successfully -- for bans on biological and chemical weapons . 例如,生物和化学更可能被用来 制造新的医药用品, 而非带来新的杀人方法, 因为生物学家和 化学家很努力—— 也很成功地——在推动 禁止生化武器的出现。
biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; biologists:n.生物学家(biologist的复数); chemists:n.化学家(chemist的复数);药剂师; bans:n.结婚预告(等于banns); chemical weapons:化学武器;
And in the same spirit, most AI researchers want to stigmatize and ban lethal autonomous weapons. 基于同样的精神, 大部分的人工智能研究者也在 试图指责和禁止致命的自动化武器。
stigmatize:vt.诬蔑;玷污;给…打上烙印;
Another Asilomar AI principle is that we should mitigate AI-fueled income inequality. 另一条阿西洛玛 人工智能会议的原则是, 我们应该要减轻 由人工智能引起的收入不平等。
mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻;vi.减轻,缓和下来;
I think that if we can grow the economic pie dramatically with AI and we still can't figure out how to divide this pie so that everyone is better off, then shame on us. 我认为,我们能够大幅度利用 人工智能发展出一块经济蛋糕, 但却没能相处如何来分配它 才能让所有人受益, 那可太丢人了。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地;
(Applause) （掌声）
Alright, now raise your hand if your computer has ever crashed. 那么问一个问题,如果 你的电脑有死机过的,请举手。
(Laughter) （笑声）
Wow, that's a lot of hands. 哇,好多人举手。
Well, then you'll appreciate this principle that we should invest much more in AI safety research, because as we put AI in charge of even more decisions and infrastructure , 那么你们就会感谢这条准则, 我们应该要投入更多 以确保对人工智能安全性的研究, 因为我们让人工智能在主导 更多决策以及基础设施时,
appreciate:v.欣赏;感激;感谢;理解; invest:v.投资;(把资金)投入;投入(时间、精力等);授予; in charge of:负责;主管; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
we need to figure out how to transform today's buggy and hackable computers into robust AI systems that we can really trust, because otherwise, all this awesome new technology can malfunction and harm us, or get hacked and be turned against us. 我们要了解如何将 会出现程序错误以及有漏洞的电脑, 转化为可靠的人工智能, 否则的话, 这些了不起的新技术 就会出现故障,反而伤害到我们, 或被黑入以后转而对抗我们。
buggy:n.童车;双轮单座轻马车;adj.多虫的; robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的; awesome:adj.令人敬畏的;使人畏惧的;可怕的;极好的; malfunction:n.失灵;故障,功能障碍; hacked:v.砍;劈;猛踢;非法侵入(hack的过去分词和过去式)
And this AI safety work has to include work on AI value alignment , because the real threat from AGI isn't malice , like in silly Hollywood movies, but competence -- 这项人工智能安全性的工作 必须包含对人工智能价值观的校准, 因为 AGI 会带来的威胁 通常并非出于恶意—— 就像是愚蠢的 好莱坞电影中表现的那样, 而是源于能力——
alignment:n.队列,成直线;校准;结盟; malice:n.恶意;怨恨;预谋; competence:n.能力,胜任;权限;作证能力;足以过舒适生活的收入;
AGI accomplishing goals that just aren't aligned with ours. AGI 想完成的目标 与我们的目标背道而驰。
accomplishing:完成; aligned:adj.对齐的;均衡的;v.结盟(align的过去式);使成一直线;
For example, when we humans drove the West African black rhino extinct , we didn't do it because we were a bunch of evil rhinoceros haters , did we? 例如,当我们人类促使了 西非的黑犀牛灭绝时, 并不是因为我们是邪恶 且痛恨犀牛的家伙,对吧？
extinct:adj.灭绝的,绝种的;熄灭的;vt.使熄灭; evil:adj.邪恶的;不幸的;有害的;讨厌的;n.罪恶,邪恶;不幸; rhinoceros:n.[脊椎]犀牛; haters:怀恨在心者(hater的名词复数);
We did it because we were smarter than them and our goals weren't aligned with theirs. 我们能够做到 只是因为我们比它们聪明, 而我们的目标和它们的目标相违背。
But AGI is by definition smarter than us, so to make sure that we don't put ourselves in the position of those rhinos if we create AGI, we need to figure out how to make machines understand our goals, adopt our goals and retain our goals. 但是 AGI 在定义上就比我们聪明, 所以必须确保我们别让 自己落到了黑犀牛的境遇, 如果我们发明 AGI, 首先就要解决如何 让机器明白我们的目标, 选择采用我们的目标, 并一直跟随我们的目标。
rhinos:n.(非正式)犀牛;[俚]钱;现金; adopt:v.采取;接受;收养;正式通过; retain:v.保留;保持;持有;继续拥有;
And whose goals should these be, anyway? 不过,这些目标到底是谁的目标？
Which goals should they be? 这些目标到底是什么目标？
This brings us to the third part of our rocket metaphor: the destination. 这就引出了火箭比喻的 第三部分:目的地。
We're making AI more powerful, trying to figure out how to steer it, but where do we want to go with it? 我们要让人工智能的力量更强大, 试图想办法来操控它, 但我们到底想把它带去何方呢？
This is the elephant in the room that almost nobody talks about -- not even here at TED -- because we're so fixated on short-term AI challenges. 这就像是房间里的大象, 显而易见却无人问津—— 甚至在 TED 也没人谈论—— 因为我们都把目光 聚焦于短期的人工智能挑战。
elephant in the room:房间里的大象,形容明明存在的问题却被人刻意回避; fixated:adj.念念不忘的;稳固关系的;v.使固定下来;注视(fixate的过去分词); short-term:adj.短期的;
Look, our species is trying to build AGI, motivated by curiosity and economics, but what sort of future society are we hoping for if we succeed? 你们看,我们人类 正在试图建造 AGI, 由我们的好奇心 以及经济需求所带动, 但如果我们能成功, 希望能创造出怎样的未来社会呢？
species:n.[生物]物种;种类; motivated:adj.有动机的; v.使产生动机; curiosity:n.好奇,好奇心;珍品,古董,古玩;
We did an opinion poll on this recently, and I was struck to see that most people actually want us to build superintelligence: 最近对于这一点, 我们做了一次观点投票, 结果很让我惊讶, 大部分的人其实希望 我们能打造出超级人工智能:
opinion poll:na.民意测验;
AI that's vastly smarter than us in all ways. 在各个方面都 比我们聪明的人工智能,
What there was the greatest agreement on was that we should be ambitious and help life spread into the cosmos, but there was much less agreement about who or what should be in charge. 大家甚至一致希望 我们应该更有野心, 并协助生命在宇宙中的拓展, 但对于应该由谁,或者什么来主导, 大家就各持己见了。
And I was actually quite amused to see that there's some some people who want it to be just machines. 有件事我觉得非常奇妙, 就是我看到有些人居然表示 让机器主导就好了。
amused:adj.好笑的;逗乐的;v.逗乐;逗笑;(使)娱乐;(amuse的过去分词和过去式)
(Laughter) （笑声）
And there was total disagreement about what the role of humans should be, even at the most basic level, so let's take a closer look at possible futures that we might choose to steer toward, alright? 至于人类该扮演怎样的角色, 大家的意见简直就是大相径庭, 即使在最基础的层面上也是, 那么让我们进一步 去看看这些可能的未来, 我们可能去往目的地,怎么样？
at the most:至多,不超过;
So don't get be wrong here. 别误会我的意思,
I'm not talking about space travel, merely about humanity's metaphorical journey into the future. 我不是在谈论太空旅行, 只是打个比方, 人类进入未来的这个旅程。
merely:adv.仅仅,只不过;只是; metaphorical:adj.比喻性的,隐喻性的;
So one option that some of my AI colleagues like is to build superintelligence and keep it under human control, like an enslaved god, disconnected from the internet 我的一些研究人工智能的同事 很喜欢的一个选择就是 打造人工智能, 并确保它被人类所控制, 就像被奴役起来的神一样, 网络连接被断开,
colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); enslaved:v.使成为奴隶;奴役;使受控制;(enslave的过去分词和过去式) disconnected:adj.分离的; v.切断(煤气、水或电的供应); (disconnect的过去式和过去分词)
and used to create unimaginable technology and wealth for whoever controls it. 为它的操控者创造出无法想象的 科技和财富。
unimaginable:adj.不可思议的;难以想像的; wealth:n.财富;大量;富有; whoever:任何人:无论是谁:
But Lord Acton warned us that power corrupts , and absolute power corrupts absolutely , so you might worry that maybe we humans just aren't smart enough, or wise enough rather, to handle this much power. 但是艾克顿勋爵（Lord Acton） 警告过我们, 权力会带来腐败, 绝对的权力终将带来绝对的腐败, 所以也许你会担心 我们人类就是还不够聪明, 或者不够智慧, 无法妥善处理过多的权力。
Lord:n.(英国)贵族,大人,大臣;v.使成贵族;作威作福; Acton:n.铠衣(13及14世纪时穿在铠甲里的短袄);锁子甲; corrupts:adj.腐败的,贪污的;堕落的;v.使腐烂;使堕落,使恶化; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
Also, aside from any moral qualms you might have about enslaving superior minds, you might worry that maybe the superintelligence could outsmart us, break out and take over . 还有,除了对于奴役带来的优越感, 你可能还会产生道德上的忧虑, 你也许会担心人工智能 能够在智慧上超越我们, 奋起反抗,并取得我们的控制权。
moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的; qualms:n.良心之谴责;不安; enslaving:v.使成为奴隶;奴役;使受控制;征服;(enslave的现在分词) superior:n.上级;上司;adj.(在品质上)更好的;占优势的;更胜一筹的; outsmart:vt.比…更聪明;用计谋打败; take over:接管;继承;接收;接任;接替;
But I also have colleagues who are fine with AI taking over and even causing human extinction , as long as we feel the the AIs are our worthy descendants , like our children. 但是我也有同事认为, 让人工智能来操控一切也无可厚非, 造成人类灭绝也无妨, 只要我们觉得人工智能 配得上成为我们的后代, 就像是我们的孩子。
extinction:n.绝种; as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然; worthy:adj.值得的; n.杰出人物; descendants:n.后裔;后代;子孙;派生物;(descendant的复数)
But how would we know that the AIs have adopted our best values and aren't just unconscious zombies tricking us into anthropomorphizing them? 但是我们如何才能知道 人工智能汲取了我们最好的价值观, 而不是只是一个无情的僵尸, 让我们误以为它们有人性？
adopted:adj.被收养的;被采用的;v.采用;接受;(adopt的过去式和过去分词); unconscious:adj.无意识的;失去知觉的;未发觉的; zombies:n.僵尸;生性怪癖的人;僵尸电脑(zombie的复数); anthropomorphizing:v.赋与(…)人性[人形]; (anthropomorphize的现在分词);
Also, shouldn't those people who don't want human extinction have a say in the matter, too? 此外,那些绝对不想 看到人类灭绝的人, 对此应该也有话要说吧？
Now, if you didn't like either of those two high-tech options , it's important to remember that low-tech is suicide from a cosmic perspective , because if we don't go far beyond today's technology, 如果这两个高科技的选择 都不是你所希望的, 请记得,从宇宙历史的角度来看, 低级的科技如同自杀, 因为如果我们不能 远远超越今天的科技,
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) low-tech:adj.低技术的; suicide:n.自杀;自杀行为;自杀者;adj.自杀的;v.自杀;vi.自杀; perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的;
the question isn't whether humanity is going to go extinct, merely whether we're going to get taken out by the next killer asteroid , supervolcano or some other problem that better technology could have solved. 问题就不再是人类是否会灭绝, 而是让我们灭绝的会是下一次 巨型流星撞击地球, 还是超级火山爆发, 亦或是一些其他本该可以 由更好的科技来解决的问题。
asteroid:n.[天]小行星;[无脊椎]海盘车;小游星;adj.星状的;
So, how about having our cake and eating it ... 所以,为什么不干脆 坐享其成……
with AGI that's not enslaved but treats us well because its values are aligned with ours? 使用非奴役的 AGI, 因为价值观和我们一致, 愿意和我们并肩作战的 AGI？
treats:v.以…态度对待; n.乐事;
This is the gist of what Eliezer Yudkowsky has called "friendly AI," 尤多科斯基（Eliezer Yudkowsky) 所谓的 “友善的人工智能” 就是如此,
and if we can do this, it could be awesome. 若我们能做到这点,那简直太棒了。
It could not only eliminate negative experiences like disease , poverty , crime and other suffering, but it could also give us the freedom to choose from a fantastic new diversity of positive experiences -- basically making us the masters of our own destiny . 它或许不会解决负面的影响, 如疾病,贫穷, 犯罪或是其它, 但是它会给予我们自由, 让我们从那些正面的 境遇中去选择—— 让我们成为自己命运的主人。
eliminate:v.消除;排除; negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣; fantastic:奇异的,空想的 diversity:n.差异(性):多样性:多样化: positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片; basically:adv.主要地,基本上; destiny:n.命运,定数,天命;
So in summary , our situation with technology is complicated , but the big picture is rather simple. 总的来说, 在科技上,我们的现状很复杂, 但是若从大局来看,又很简单。
summary:adj.简易的;扼要的;n.概要,摘要,总结; complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
Most AI researchers expect AGI within decades, and if we just bumble into this unprepared , it will probably be the biggest mistake in human history -- let's face it. 多数人工智能的研究者认为 AGI 能在未来十年内实现, 如果我们没有事先 准备好去面对它们, 就可能成为人类历史上 最大的一个错误—— 我们要面对现实。
bumble:vi.犯错误;踉跄;结结巴巴地说话;vt.弄糟;搞坏;n.错误; unprepared:adj.无准备的;即席的;尚未准备好的;
It could enable brutal , global dictatorship with unprecedented inequality, surveillance and suffering, and maybe even human extinction. 它可能导致残酷的 全球独裁主义变成现实, 造成前所未有的 不平等监控和苦难, 或许甚至导致人类灭绝。
enable:v.使能够;使有机会;使成为可能;使可行; brutal:adj.残忍的;野蛮的,不讲理的; dictatorship:n.专政;独裁权;独裁者职位; unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的; surveillance:n.监督;监视;
But if we steer carefully, we could end up in a fantastic future where everybody's better off: the poor are richer, the rich are richer, everybody is healthy and free to live out their dreams. 但是如果我们能小心操控, 我们可能会有个美好的未来, 人人都会受益的未来, 穷人变得富有,富人变得更富有, 每个人都是健康的, 能自由地去实现他们的梦想。
Now, hang on. 不过先别急。
Do you folks want the future that's politically right or left? 你们希望未来的政治 是左派还是右派？
politically:adv.政治上;
Do you want the pious society with strict moral rules, or do you an hedonistic free-for-all , more like Burning Man 24/7? 你们想要一个有 严格道德准则的社会, 还是一个人人可参与的 享乐主义社会, 更像是个无时无刻 不在运转的火人盛会？
pious:adj.虔诚的;敬神的;可嘉的;尽责的; hedonistic:adj.快乐主义者的;快乐论的;快乐主义的; free-for-all:n.可自由参加的竞赛;任何人可以参加的竞赛;adj.对任何人开放的;
Do you want beautiful beaches, forests and lakes, or would you prefer to rearrange some of those atoms with the computers, enabling virtual experiences? 你们想要美丽的海滩、森林和湖泊, 还是偏好用电脑 重新排列组成新的原子, 实现真正的虚拟现实？
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; rearrange:v.重新排列;重新整理; atoms:n.[物]原子(atom的复数); enabling:adj.授权的;v.使能够;授权给(enable的现在分词); virtual:adj.[计]虚拟的;实质上的,事实上的(但未在名义上或正式获承认);
With friendly AI, we could simply build all of these societies and give people the freedom to choose which one they want to live in because we would no longer be limited by our intelligence, merely by the laws of physics. 有了友善的人工智能, 我们就能轻而易举地建立这些社会, 让大家有自由去选择 想要生活在怎样的社会里, 因为我们不会再受到 自身智慧的限制, 唯一的限制只有物理的定律。
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式)
So the resources and space for this would be astronomical -- literally . 所以资源和空间会取之不尽—— 毫不夸张。
resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); astronomical:adj.天文的,天文学的;极大的; literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
So here's our choice. 我们的选择如下:
We can either be complacent about our future, taking as an article of blind faith that any new technology is guaranteed to be beneficial, and just repeat that to ourselves as a mantra over and over and over again as we drift like a rudderless ship towards our own obsolescence . 我们可以对未来感到自满, 带着盲目的信念, 相信任何科技必定是有益的, 并将这个想法当作 圣歌一般,不断默念, 让我们像漫无目的船只, 驶向自我消亡的结局。
faith:n.信心;信任;宗教信仰; guaranteed:adj.必然的; v.保证; mantra:n.咒语(尤指四吠陀经典内作为咒文或祷告唱念的);颂歌; over and over again:adv.一再地;反复不断地; drift:v.漂移;漂流;飘;缓缓移动;n.趋势;大意;要点;流动; rudderless:adj.无舵的;无指导者的; obsolescence:n.[生物]退化;荒废;
Or we can be ambitious -- thinking hard about how to steer our technology and where we want to go with it to create the age of amazement . 或者,我们可以拥有雄心壮志—— 努力去找到操控我们科技的方法, 以及向往的目的地, 创造出真正令人惊奇的时代。
amazement:n.惊异;惊愕;
We're all here to celebrate the age of amazement, and I feel that its essence should lie in becoming not overpowered but empowered by our technology. 我们相聚在这里, 赞颂这令人惊奇的时代, 我觉得,它的精髓应当是, 让科技赋予我们力量, 而非反过来受控于它。
essence:n.本质;实质;精髓;香精; overpowered:n.爱情俘虏(歌曲名); empowered:v.授权;给(某人)…的权力;(empower的过去分词和过去式)
Thank you. 谢谢大家。
(Applause) （掌声）