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MartinJacques_2010S-_了解中国的崛起_
The world is changing with really remarkable speed. 世界正在 以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的;
If you look at the chart at the top here, you'll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. 如果你看着这上方的图表, 你会看到在2025年, 高盛投资公司的这些预测 表明中国经济规模 会和美国经济几乎相当。
projections:n.预测;设想;投影;投影图;(projection的复数) economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
And if you look at the chart for 2050, it's projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. 如果看 2050年的图表, 预测表明中国经济规模 将会是美国经济的两倍, 印度的经济规模将会和 美国的经济几乎持平。
And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crisis . 在这里,我们应该记住 这些预测是在 西方经济危机之前做出的。
bear in mind:vi.记住;考虑到; financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
A couple of weeks ago, 几周前,
I was looking at the latest projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. 我查看法国巴黎银行的 最近预测, 中国在什么时候 会超越美国经济, 成为第一大经济体。
at the latest:最迟;至迟; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
Goldman Sachs projected 2027. 高盛投资公司预测2027年。
The post-crisis projection is 2020. 危机过后的预测 是2020年。
That's just a decade away. 这也不过只有10年的光景。
China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. 中国将在两个基本方面上 改变世界。
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
First of all , it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. 首先, 中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家 它有13亿人口, 在过去30年间 它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。
First of all:adv.首先;
And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. 在未来10年间, 它会有世界上最大的经济体。
Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country. 在世界现代史中,以前从来都是发达国家 还没有一个发展中的国家 变成了世界上 最大的经济体。
era:n.新时期;纪元;年代;新时代;
Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world -- which I think is what China will become -- will be not from the West and from very, very different civilizational roots. 第二, 在现代史中第一次 在世界上, 我认为中国会变成大国, 它有别于西方国家 而它是从非常,非常不同的文明根源发展起的大国。
dominant:adj.显性的;占优势的;支配的,统治的;n.显性; civilizational:文明化;文明体国家;
Now I know it's a widespread assumption in the West that, as countries modernize , they also Westernize. 现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设 随着国家的现代化, 它们也会西方化。
widespread:adj.普遍的,广泛的;分布广的; assumption:n.假定;设想;担任;采取; modernize:vt.使…现代化;vi.现代化;
This is an illusion . 这是个幻想。
illusion:n.幻觉,错觉;错误的观念或信仰;
It's an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition , markets and technology . 这是对于现代化 仅仅是竞争,市场和技术的一种产品的假设。
modernity:n.现代性;现代的东西;新式; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛; technology:n.技术;工艺;术语;
It is not; it is also shaped equally by history and culture. 中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的,也是由 历史和文化共同作用下形成的。
China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West. 中国不同于西方国家, 它也不会变成和西方国家一样。
It will remain in very fundamental respects very different. 它会在非常基础的方面表现得 非常不同。
Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? 现在这的大问题明显是, 我们该怎样认识中国？
make sense of:搞清…的意思;
How do we try to understand what China is? 我们该怎样了解中国？
And the problem we have in the West at the moment by-and-large is that the conventional approach is that we understand it really in Western terms, using Western ideas. 在西方我们现在的问题大体上 是传统的方法 我们用西方的术语,用西方的观点来了解 真正的中国。
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的; approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理;
We can't. 我们不能这样。
Now I want to offer you three building blocks for trying to understand what China is like -- just as a beginning. 现在我想给大家 3个基础理由 来试着了解中国 只是起个头。
building blocks:(儿童玩的)积木;建筑砌块;堆积木;建筑砖块;基石;
The first is this, that China is not really a nation state . 首先是这个, 中国事实上不是一个民族国家。
nation state:n.单一民族国家;
Okay, it's called itself a nation state for the last hundred years. 在过去的几百年,中国自称是一个 民族国家。
But everyone who knows anything about China knows it's a lot older than this. 但对中国很了解的人 知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring state period -- the birth of modern China. 中国是 在公元前221年也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起, 现代中国就诞生了。
Dynasty:n.代;王朝;朝代;
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China. 你可以看到现代中国的边界线。
boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数)
Or immediately afterward , the Han Dynasty, still 2,000 years ago. 随之其后的汉朝, 还在2000年前。
afterward:adv.以后,后来;
And you can see already it occupies most of what we now know as Eastern China, which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then and live now. 你可以看出中国已经占据 我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分, 绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住 现在还生活在那儿。
occupies:v.使用,占用;使用(房屋、建筑);居住;侵占;占据;(occupy的第三人称单数) Eastern:adj.东方的;向东的;东部的;东方国家的;n.东方人;东正教信徒; majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人:
Now what is extraordinary about this is, what gives China it's sense of being China, what gives the Chinese the sense of what it is to be Chinese, comes not from the last hundred years, not from the nation state period, which is what happened in the West, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization state. 这点非同寻常的 是,它赋予了中国做为中国的意义, 也赋予了中国人 成为他们中国人的意义, 这不是从过去几百年, 也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识, 这跟西方发展也不一样, 而这一阶段,如果你喜欢, 可以说是文明国家的阶段。
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; what gives:出了什么事;
I'm thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral worship , of a very distinctive notion of the state, likewise , a very distinctive notion of the family, social relationships like guanxi, 我想到这儿,举个例子吧, 传统习惯例如:对祖先的崇拜, 非常有特色的国家概念, 诸如此类的,非常有特色的家庭观念, 社交关系如关系,
ancestral:adj.祖先的;祖传的; worship:n.崇拜;崇敬;爱慕;阁下;v.崇拜(上帝或神);做礼拜;热爱;崇拜; distinctive:adj.独特的;特别的;有特色的; notion:n.观念;信念;理解; likewise:adv.同样地;也;
Confucian values and so on. 儒家价值观等等。
Confucian:adj.孔子的,儒家的;儒家学说的;n.儒家,儒家学者;孔子的门徒;
These are all things that come from the period of the civilization state. 所有这些事都来自于 文明国家的阶段。
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization state, rather than as a nation state. 换言之,中国不像世界上的西方国家和多数国家, 它由它自身文明所形成, 它是作为一个文明国家 而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this: 还有另一件事要加进来,这就是:
Of course we know China's big, huge, demographically and geographically , with a population of 1.3 billion people. 当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔,人口众多, 在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指, 它有13亿人口。
demographically:人口统计地; geographically:adv.在地理上;地理学上;
What we often aren't really aware of is the fact that China is extremely diverse and very pluralistic , and in many ways very decentralized . 我们常常没关注的 事实是 中国也是极其多样化 和非常多元化的, 在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; pluralistic:adj.兼职的;兼管数个教堂的; decentralized:adj.分散的; vt.使分散;
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing, even though we think this to be the case. 尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府来管理这庞大规模的国家, 这会是个问题。
scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
It's never been the case. 但这从来都不是个问题。
So this is China, a civilization state, rather than a nation state. 所以这才是中国,一个文明国家, 而不是一个民族国家。
And what does it mean? 那这意味着什么呢？
Well I think it has all sorts of profound implications . 那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; implications:n.蕴涵式;暗指,暗示;含蓄,含意;卷入(implication的复数);
I'll give you two quick ones. 我会给你两个简短介绍。
The first is that the most important political value for the Chinese is unity , is the maintenance of Chinese civilization. 第一个是 中国人最主要的政治价值观 是统一, 用来维护 中华文明。
unity:n.团结;一致;联合;个体; maintenance:n.维护,维修;保持;生活费用;
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe: breakdown , the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire [Roman Empire]. 大家知道,2000年前,欧洲: 灭亡,神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。
breakdown:n.分解;损坏;分类;(关系)破裂;adj.专门修理故障的; fragmentation:n.破碎;分裂;[计]存储残片; Roman:n.罗马人;古罗马语;adj.罗马的;罗马人的;
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since. 从那时到现在,它不断地分裂。
China, over the same time period, went in exactly the opposite direction, very painfully holding this huge civilization, civilization state together. 在同一时间段,中国 却有着完全相反的方向, 非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明, 把文明国家统一在一起。
painfully:adv.痛苦地,费力地;
The second is maybe more prosaic , which is Hong Kong. 第二 或许是更一般的例子 香港的例子。
prosaic:adj.平凡的,乏味的;散文体的;
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong by Britain to China in 1997? 大家是否记得香港 在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府？
handover:n.移交;
You may remember what the Chinese constitutional proposition was. 大家能记得 中国宪法体制是什么吗？
constitutional:adj.宪法的;本质的;体质上的;保健的;n.保健散步;保健运动; proposition:n.提议;待处理的问题;任务;(美国)法律修正议案;见解;命题;v.向...提议;
One country, two systems. 一国两制。
And I'll lay a wager that barely anyone in the West believed them. 我会打赌 在西方没有人会信这一套。
wager:n.赌注;赌博;赌物;v.打赌;下赌注; barely:adv.仅仅,勉强;几乎不;公开地;贫乏地;
'" Window dressing . “装饰门面。
Window dressing:n.橱窗装饰艺术;装饰门面;弄虚作假;
When China gets it's hands on Hong Kong, that won't be the case." 当中国政府接手香港, 这不可能。”
13 years on, the political and legal system in Hong Kong is as different now as it was in 1997. 13年来, 香港现在的政治和司法体制 和1997年一样,但和中国大陆的有所不同。
legal:adj.法律的;合法的;法定的;
We were wrong. Why were we wrong? 我们都错了,为什么我们理解错了呢？
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough, in nation state ways. 我们错是因为我们理所当然地 以民族国家角度思考。
naturally:adv.自然地;自然而然地;轻而易举;天生地;大方地;
Think of German unification , 1990. 想想1990年德国统一。
unification:n.统一;一致;联合;
What happened? 发生什么了？
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West. 基本上东德被西德吞噬。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; swallowed:v.吞下;咽下;吞没;淹没;侵吞(swallow的过去分词和过去式)
One nation, one system. 一个国家,一个体制。
That is the nation state mentality . 这是民族国家的心态。
mentality:n.心态;[心理]智力;精神力;头脑作用;
But you can't run a country like China, a civilization state, on the basis of one civilization, one system. 但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的, 一个文明国家, 它建立在一种文明,一个体制上。
on the basis of:根据;基于…;
It doesn't work. 这行不通。
So actually the response of China to the question of Hong Kong -- as it will be to the question of Taiwan -- was a natural response: one civilization, many systems. 的确中国 在香港问题上的回应 也是在台湾问题上的回应, 它是一个很自然的回应: 一种文明,多种体制。
response:n.响应;反应;回答;
Let me offer you another building block to try and understand China -- maybe not such a comfortable one. 让我来说另一个基础理由 来试着了解中国 这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。
The Chinese have a very, very different conception of race to most other countries. 中国与其他大多数国家对 民族的概念 有非常,非常不同的理解。
conception:n.怀孕;概念;设想;开始;
Do you know, of the 1.3 billion Chinese, over 90 percent of them think they belong to the same race, the Han. 大家知道, 13亿中国人, 超过90%的中国人 认为他们属于同一个民族, 汉族。
Now this is completely different from the other world's most populous countries. 目前这与 世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。
populous:adj.人口稠密的;人口多的;
India, the United States, 印度,美国,
Indonesia , Brazil -- all of them are multiracial . 印度尼西亚,巴西, 他们都是多民族的。
Indonesia:n.印尼,印度尼西亚(东南亚岛国); Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); multiracial:adj.多民族的;
The Chinese don't feel like that. 中国人没有感到过多民族。
China is only multiracial really at the margins . 中国仅是 在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。
margins:n.边缘; v.给…镶边; (margin的复数)
So the question is, why? 那问题是,为什么？
Well the reason, I think, essentially is, again, back to the civilization state. 好吧,我认为实质上,原因 得再次追溯到这文明国家。
essentially:adv.本质上;本来;
A history of at least 2,000 years, a history of conquest , occupation , absorption , assimilation and so on, led to the process by which, over time, this notion of the Han emerged -- of course, nurtured by a growing and very powerful sense of cultural identity . 至少在2000年的历史长河中, 征服,占领, 合并,同化等的历史 随着时间的推移导致了 汉民族这概念的形成过程 当然,这概念也孕育了 增强了汉文化认同感 也使其变得非常强大,具有深远意义。
conquest:n.征服;占领;占领(或征服)的地区;(爱情或性方面)被俘虏的人; occupation:n.职业;占领;占用;工作; absorption:n.吸收;全神贯注,专心致志; assimilation:n.同化;吸收;[生化]同化作用; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; emerged:v.(从隐蔽处或暗处)出现;暴露;露出真相;显现;(emerge的过去分词和过去式) nurtured:v.养育;培养;养护;支持(nurture的过去分词和过去式) cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的; identity:n.身份;同一性,一致;特性;恒等式;
Now the great advantage of this historical experience has been that, without the Han, 现在这历史经验的巨大优势 呈现出来,没有汉民族,
advantage:n.有利条件:优势:优点: historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的;
China could never have held together. 中国永远不可能连为一体。
The Han identity has been the cement which has held this country together. 汉民族文化认同一直 把这个国家粘合在一起。
cement:n.水泥;(干燥后硬化的)水泥;胶合剂;胶接剂;v.加强;胶合;
The great disadvantage of it is that the Han have a very weak conception of cultural difference. 它的巨大的劣势 是汉民族对文化差异 有很少的认知概念。
disadvantage:n.不利因素;障碍;不便之处;
They really believe in their own superiority , and they are disrespectful of those who are not. 他们真正相信 他们自身汉族文化的优越性, 他们不尊重 那些不同民族的差异性。
superiority:n.优越,优势;优越性; disrespectful:adj.无礼的;失礼的;不尊敬的;
Hence their attitude , for example, to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans. 因此, 举个例子,比如他们对待 回族和藏族的态度。
Hence:adv.因此;今后; attitude:n.态度;看法;意见;姿势;
Or let me give you my third building block, the Chinese state. 让我给出第三个基础理由, 中国式的国家。
Now the relationship between the state and society in China is very different from that in the West. 现在在中国 国家和社会间的关系 非常不同于西方的那种关系。
Now we in the West overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least -- that the authority and legitimacy of the state is a function of democracy . 在西方我们 绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近 国家的权威和合法性 是民主的一个功能。
overwhelmingly:adv.压倒性地;不可抵抗地; authority:n.权威;权力;当局; legitimacy:n.合法;合理;正统; democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治;
The problem with this proposition is that the Chinese state enjoys more legitimacy and more authority amongst the Chinese than is true with any Western state. 有关这问题 是中国这个国家 对中国人民享有更多合法性 和更多权威性 这 比起 任何西方国家,它都是事实。
amongst:prep.在…之中;在…当中(等于among);
And the reason for this is because -- well, there are two reasons, I think. 这个的原因 是因为 我认为有两个理由。
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy, because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy. 中国很明显与民主无关, 因为依我们来看,中国完全称不上是民主。
And the reason for this is, firstly , because the state in China is given a very special -- it enjoys a very special significance as the representative , the embodiment and the guardian of Chinese civilization, of the civilization state. 这个理由是, 首先,因为在中国,国家 是一个非常特别有所指的, 它享有一个非常特别的意义 作为中华文明的代表, 体现 和捍卫者, 也是代表中国国家的代表,化身和捍卫者。
firstly:adv.首先(主要用于列举条目,论点时);第一; significance:n.意义;重要性;意思; representative:n.代表; adj.典型的; embodiment:n.体现;化身;具体化; guardian:n.[法]监护人,保护人;守护者;adj.守护的;
This is as close as China gets to a kind of spiritual role. 这也接近中国有种 精神象征的作用。
spiritual:n.圣歌(尤指美国南部黑人的);adj.精神的,心灵的;
And the second reason is because, whereas in Europe and North America , the state's power is continuously challenged -- 第二个理由是因为, 反之在欧洲, 北美洲, 国家的权力不断受到挑战。
whereas:conj.然而;鉴于;反之; North America:n.北美洲; continuously:adv.连续不断地;
I mean in the European tradition, historically against the church, against other sectors of the aristocracy , against merchants and so on -- for 1,000 years, the power of the Chinese state has not been challenged. 我指在欧洲历史传统, 历史上反对教堂, 反对其它各种贵族阶级, 反对商人等等 有1000年历史, 中国国家的权力 从来没被挑战过。
historically:adv.历史上地;从历史观点上说; sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形; aristocracy:n.贵族;贵族统治;上层社会;贵族政治; merchants:n.[贸易]商人(merchant的复数);
It's had no serious rivals . 它没有真正的对手可抗衡。
rivals:n.对手(rival的复数);[劳经]竞争者;v.竞争(rival的三单形式);
So you can see that the way in which power has been constructed in China is very different from our experience in Western history. 所以大家可以看到 在中国已经建立的权力的方式 与我们西方历史的经验 非常不同。
constructed:v.修建;建造;组成;编制,绘制;(construct的过去分词和过去式)
The result, by the way , is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state. 顺便提一下,结果 是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。
by the way:顺便说一下;
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder , a stranger, certainly an organ whose powers need to be limited or defined and constrained , the Chinese don't see the state like that at all. 鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者, 一个陌生人, 当然是一个组织 它的权力需要被限制 或被界定和约束, 中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。
intruder:n.侵入者;干扰者;妨碍者; organ:n.[生物]器官;机构;风琴;管风琴;嗓音; limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) defined:adj.有定义的,确定的; v.使明确; constrained:adj.不自然的; v.约束; (constrain的过去分词和过去式)
The Chinese view the state as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family -- not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch of the family. 中国人视国家 作为一个亲密的朋友,也不止是作为一个密友, 作为家庭里的一员, 事实上也不止是家里一员, 而是一家之长, 家庭里的家长。
intimate:n.知己; v.暗示; adj.亲密的; patriarch:n.家长;族长;元老;创始人;
This is the Chinese view of the state -- very, very different to ours. 这是从中国视角来看待国家, 和我们的截然不同。
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way to what is the case in the West. 根植于中国社会的案例 与我们在西方的社会例证 是完全不同的。
embedded:adj.嵌入式的;植入的;内含的;v.嵌入(embed的过去式和过去分词形式);
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the Chinese context , is a new kind of paradigm , which is different from anything we've had to think about in the past. 我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解 在中国背景下, 这是一种新的范例, 它与 我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉; paradigm:n.范例;词形变化表;
Know that China believes in the market and the state. 要知道中国人相信市场和国有。
I mean, Adam Smith, already writing in the late 18th century said, "The Chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated than anything in Europe." 我指,亚当·斯密 在18世纪晚期已经著书,说过, “中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场, 它都是较大的,较为发达的 也是较为复杂的。”
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的;
And, apart from the Mao period, that has remained more-or-less the case ever since. 除了毛泽东时代, 中国市场大体是如上的例证。
But this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state. 但这也是 在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。
ubiquitous:adj.普遍存在的;无所不在的;
The state is everywhere in China. 国家就是中国的一切。
I mean, it's leading firms, many of them are still publicly owned. 我指,它引领着公司, 他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage . 私有企业,不管它们有多大,像Lenovo联想, 在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。
patronage:n.赞助;光顾;任免权;
Targets for the economy and so on are set by the state. 国家设置了经济目标 等等。
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas -- as we are familiar with -- with something like the the one-child policy . 当然,国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面 比如我们所述熟悉的 独生子女政策。
familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友; one-child:独生子女; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单;
Moreover , this is a very old state tradition, a very old tradition of statecraft . 此外,中国是一个非常古老的传统国家, 有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。
Moreover:adv.而且;此外; statecraft:n.治国才能;管理国家的本领;
I mean, if you want an illustration of this, the Great Wall is one. 如果你想搞明白这样的例子, 长城就是其中一个。
illustration:n.插图;图解;示例;图示;
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal, which was constructed in the first instance in the fifth century B.C. 但这有另一个,这是（京杭）大运河, 它起初是 在公元前5世纪被建造的
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例;
and was finally completed in the seventh century A.D. 在公元7世纪时 它最终竣工。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地;
It went for 1,114 miles, linking Beijing with Hangzhou and Shanghai. 它有1114英里, 链接北京 到杭州和上海。
So there's a long history of extraordinary state infrastructural projects in China, which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today, which is something like the Three Gorges Dam and many other expressions of state competence within China. 在中国, 非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史 由来已久, 我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的, 例如三峡大坝工程 和许多中国其它的 国家工程 业绩。
infrastructural:adj.基础结构的;构造基底的; suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想: Gorges:戈格斯; expressions:表达,表情(expression的复数) competence:n.能力,胜任;权限;作证能力;足以过舒适生活的收入;
So there we have three building blocks for trying to to understand the difference that is China -- the civilization state, the notion of race and the nature of the state and its relationship to society. 所以这3个组成部分 让我们了解中国的不同-- 文明国家, 民族的概念 和国家的属性 以及它和社会的关系。
And yet we still insist, by-and-large, in thinking that we can understand China by simply drawing on Western experience, looking at it through Western eyes, using Western concepts. 总地说来,我们还一直坚持 认为我们仅从西方经验的视角 就能理解中国 通过西方人视角 使用西方理念来看透中国。
If you want to know why we unerringly seem to get China wrong -- our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect -- this is the reason. 如果你想知道 我们为什么对中国有错误的认识 我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的 这上所述就是原因。
unerringly:adv.无过失地;正确地; predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式);
Unfortunately I think, 不幸的是我认为,
Unfortunately:adv.不幸地;
I have to say that I think attitude towards China is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality. 我得说我认为 对中国的态度 是西方人的一种心态做崇。
Westerner:n.西方人,欧美人;美国西部的人;
It's kind of arrogant . 这是傲慢的心态。
arrogant:adj.自大的,傲慢的;
It's arrogant in the sense that we think that we are best, and therefore we have the universal measure. 就傲慢的心态而言 我们认为我们是最好的, 因此我们有普世的评判标准。
universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的;
And secondly, it's ignorant . 其次,这是无知的。
ignorant:adj.无知的;愚昧的;
We refuse to really address the issue of difference. 我们拒绝真正承认 问题的不同面。
issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
You know, there's a very interesting passage in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian. 大家知道,美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里（《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》） 有一段非常有意思的话。
And Paul Cohen argues that the West thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. 保罗·柯文讲到 西方认为它自身文化 好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的 文化。
cosmopolitan:adj.世界性的;四海一家的;n.四海为家者;世界主义者;
But it's not. 但事实不是。
In many ways, it's the most parochial , because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that it's not really needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations . 在许多方面, 它是最狭隘的, 因为200年来, 西方一直主宰世界 它不必 去了解其他文化, 其他文明。
parochial:adj.教区的;狭小的;地方范围的; civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
Because, at the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way. 因为,到头来, 必要时可动武, 彰显其自身文化。
Whereas those cultures -- virtually the rest of the world, in fact -- which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because of the West's presence in those societies. 反之这些其它文化 几乎在世界其它地区的,事实上, 面对西方文化,它们一直处于相对较弱的地位, 从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化, 因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。
virtually:adv.事实上,几乎;实质上; vis-a-vis:n.面对面的人; prep.关于; v.相向着; thereby:adv.从而,因此;在那附近;在那方面; presence:n.存在;出席;参加;风度;仪态;
And therefore, they are, as a result , more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West. 所以,结果是它们 在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
as a result:结果;
I mean, take the question of East Asia. 我们来谈谈东亚的问题。
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. -- a third of the world's population lives there, now the largest economic region in the world. 东亚:日本,韩国,中国等等-- 世界上三分之一人口住在那边, 现在是全球最大的经济区域。
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; region:n.地区;范围;部位;
And I'll tell you now, that East Asianers, people from East Asia, are far more knowledgeable about the West than the West is about East Asia. 现在我会告诉你, 东亚人,东亚的人们, 对西方的认识程度 比起 西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。
knowledgeable:adj.知识渊博的,有知识的;有见识的;聪明的;
Now this point is very germane , I'm afraid, to the present. 现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常 有影响的。
germane:adj.有密切关系的;贴切的;恰当的;
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning -- the Goldman Sachs chart. 因为发生的变化吗？回到开始的图表-- 高盛投资公司的图表。
at the beginning:首先;从一开始;起初;从头开始;
What is happening is that, very rapidly in historical terms, the world is being driven and shaped, not by the old developed countries, but by the developing world. 当前发生的 是,在历史上非常迅速, 世界不是 被老旧的发达国家 所驱动和塑造, 而是被发展中新兴国家。
We've seen this in terms of the G20 -- usurping very rapidly the position of the G7, or the G8. 我们看到这个 G20二十国集团 它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团 或者G8八国集团的地位。
usurping:v.篡夺;侵权(usurp的现在分词)
And there are two consequences of this. 同时这有两个结果。
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
First, the West is rapidly losing its influence in the world. 第一,西方 正快速地失去 它在全球的影响。
influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago -- 一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的;
Copenhagen , climate change conference . 哥本哈根,气候变化会议。
Copenhagen:n.哥本哈根(丹麦首都); conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
Europe was not at the final negotiating table . 欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。
negotiating table:n.谈判桌(指正式的谈判会议);
When did that last happen? 上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候？
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago. 我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。
And that is what is going to happen in the future. 在未来这还会发生。
And the second implication is that the world will inevitably , as a consequence, become increasingly unfamiliar to us, because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories that we are not really familiar with, or conversant with. 第二个含义 是世界将不可避免地 急剧变化,对我们来说很陌生, 因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化, 经验和历史 所重塑。
inevitably:adv.不可避免地;必然地; increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地; unfamiliar:adj.不熟悉的;不常见的;没有经验的; conversant:adj.熟悉的;精通的;亲近的;
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe, 最后,我恐怕,拿欧洲来说,
America is slightly different -- but Europeans by and large , I have to say, are ignorant, are unaware about the way the world is changing. 美国是有点不同的 但大体上,我得说欧洲人 是无知的, 他们没有意识到 世界上正在发生的改变。
slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地; Europeans:n.欧洲人(European的复数); by and large:大体上,总的来说; unaware:adj.不知道的,无意的;未察觉到的;adv.意外地;不知不觉地;
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China, and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion ." 有人,我有一个在中国的英国朋友, 他说,“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”
continent:n.大陆,洲,陆地;adj.自制的,克制的; sleepwalking:v.梦游;(sleepwalk的现在分词) oblivion:n.遗忘;湮没;赦免;
Well, maybe that's true, maybe that's an exaggeration . 好吧,恐怕是对的, 恐怕这有点夸张。
exaggeration:n.夸张;夸大之词;夸张的手法;
But there's another problem which goes along with this -- that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world -- and that is a sort of loss of a sense of the future. 但另一问题随之产生 欧洲正在日益与世界脱节 这是一种 对未来感的缺失。
out of touch:失去联系;不来往的;
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future in it's confidence . 当然,我指欧洲曾自信地 引领未来。
confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的;
Take the 19th century for example. 拿19世纪来举例。
But this, alas , is no longer true. 唉,但这已经风光不在。
alas:int.唉(表悲伤,遗憾,恐惧,关切等等);
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future, try China -- there's old Confucius . 如果你想感知未来,如果你想感触未来, 看看中国,这是古代的孔子。
Confucius:n.孔子(中国哲学家,教育家);
This is a railway station the like of which you've never seen before. 这是一个火车站 这是你以前从未看到过的。
It doesn't even look like a railway station. 它看上去不像是火车站。
This is the new Guangzhou railway station for the high-speed trains. 这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的 广州火车站。
China already has a bigger network than any other country in the world and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together . 中国已经比起全球其他国家 有更多的铁路网 不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。
all the rest:其他所有相关信息; put together:..放在一起;组合;装配;
Or take this: Now this is an idea, but it's an idea to by tried out shortly in a suburb of Beijing. 举个例子:现在这是个想法, 但这想法不久就会 在北京郊区实现。
suburb:n.郊区;城外;
Here you have a megabus, on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people. 这儿会有一辆超级公交, 在公交上层会承载2000人。
upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂; deck:n.甲板;舱面;层面;一副(为52张);v.装饰;打扮;布置;用力击倒;
It travels on rails down a suburban road, and the cars travel underneath it. 它会沿着郊区的路上轨道 行驶, 车辆可以在它下面穿行。
suburban:adj.郊区的,城郊的;土气的;见闻不广的;n.郊区居民; underneath:prep.在…的下面;在…的支配下;n.下面;底部;adj.下面的;底层的;
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour. 它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
Now this is the way things are going to move, because China has a very specific problem, which is different from Europe and different from the United States. 现在这个就是未来交通方式, 因为中国有非常具体问题, 它有别于欧洲 和美国。
specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
China has huge numbers of people and no space. 中国人口众多,但很少空间。
So this is a solution to a situation where China's going to have many, many, many cities over 20 million people. 所以当 中国将会有 越来越多的城市 超过2000万人口时,这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
Okay, so how would I like to finish? 好吧,那么我会怎样来做结论呢？
Well, what should our attitude be towards this world that we see very rapidly developing before us? 那么,我们应该以怎样态度 来面对这个 呈现在我们面前 飞速发展的 世界？
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it. 我认为关于此事,这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。
But I want to argue, above all, a big picture positive for this world. 但首先,我想指出 这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
For 200 years, the world was essentially governed by a fragment of the human population. 200年来, 世界基本上 是被人类的一部分人所管辖。
That's what Europe and North America represented . 这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。
represented:v.代表; (represent的过去式和过去分词)
The arrival of countries like China and India -- between them 38 percent of the world's population -- and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on, represent the most important single act of democratization in the last 200 years. 新兴国家的崛起 像中国和印度 它们占世界人口的百分之三十八 和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等, 他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动 民主化 进程。
democratization:n.民主化;
Civilizations and cultures, which had been ignored , which had no voice, which were not listened to, which were not known about, will have a different sort of representation in this world. 曾被 忽视,没有发言权的文明和文化, 人们对此不了解,没听说过的文明和文化, 它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地 声音代言它们自身。
ignored:v.忽视;对…不予理会;佯装未见;不予理睬;(ignore的过去分词和过去式) representation:n.表现;代表;描述;陈述
As humanists , we must welcome, surely, this transformation . 作为人道主义者,我们必定要欢迎 这种转型。
humanists:n.人道主义者;人类学者,人文学者;人文主义者;adj.人文主义的;人道主义的; transformation:n.转变;(用于南非)民主改革;
And we will have to learn about these civilizations. 我们还得学习 这些文明。
This big ship here was the one sailed in by Zheng He in the early 15th century on his great voyages around the South China Sea, the East China Sea and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. 这儿的大船 是在15世纪早期郑和 下西洋时 航行的船, 它穿过中国东海,南海 然后穿行印度洋到达东非。
voyages:n.[水运]航海(voyage的复数); v.航行;
The little boat in front of it was the one in which, 80 years later, 这前面的小船 是80年后,
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic . 克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。
Atlantic:adj.大西洋的;巨人阿特拉斯的;n.大西洋;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Or, look carefully at this silk scroll made by ZhuZhou in 1368. 或仔细看看 这幅 ZhuZhou朱周（音译） 在1938年创作的绢轴国画。
scroll:n.纸卷;卷轴;涡卷形装饰;v.滚屏;滚动;
I think they're playing golf. 我认为他们在打高尔夫。
Christ , the Chinese even invented golf. 上帝啊,竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。
Christ:n.基督;耶稣基督
Welcome to the future. Thank you. 欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）