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MartinFord_2017-_如果未来没有工作，我们将如何挣钱？_
I'm going to begin with a scary question: 首先,我想提出一个可怕的问题:
Are we headed toward a future without jobs? 我们是否正在迈向一个没有工作的未来？
The remarkable progress that we're seeing in technologies like self-driving cars has led to an explosion of interest in this question, but because it's something that's been asked so many times in the past, maybe what we should really be asking is whether this time is really different. 如今目睹了自动驾驶汽车 等技术的显着进步, 我们对此问题的关注日益激增, 但这一问题在过去 人们已多次提及, 也许我们真正应当关心的 是这次情况是否会有所不同。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); self-driving:自驾; explosion:n.爆炸;爆发;激增;
The fear that automation might displace workers and potentially lead to lots of unemployment 人类一直担忧,自动化会取代工人 进而导致大量失业,
automation:n.自动化;自动操作; displace:vt.取代;置换;转移;把…免职;排水; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; unemployment:n.失业;失业率;失业人数;
And since then, this concern has come up again and again . 这种担忧便一再出现。
concern:v.涉及,关系到;使担心;n.关系;关心;关心的事; again and again:adv.再三地,反复地;
I'm going to guess that most of you have probably never heard of the Triple Revolution report, but this was a very prominent report. 我猜在座各位 多数没听说过“三次革命报告”, 这是一份杰出的报告,
Triple:adj.三部分的; n.三倍的数[量]; v.成为三倍; Revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环; prominent:adj.突出的,显著的;杰出的;卓越的;
It was put together by a brilliant group of people -- it actually included two Nobel laureates -- and this report was presented to the President of the United States, 出自一群优秀人才之手, 其中包括两名诺奖得主。 该报告最终呈送美国总统审阅。
put together:..放在一起;组合;装配; laureates:adj.戴桂冠的;荣誉的;n.桂冠诗人;得奖者;vt.使戴桂冠; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
and it argued that the US was on the brink of economic and social upheaval because industrial automation was going to put millions of people out of work. 报告指出,美国正处于经济和社会动荡的边缘, 因为工业自动化将导致数百万工人 下岗失业。
on the brink of:即将要;濒于;濒临;在…的边缘; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; upheaval:n.剧变;隆起;举起; industrial:adj.工业的,产业的; n.工业股票;
Now, that report was delivered to President Lyndon Johnson in March of 1964. 时任总统林登·约翰逊收到报告时 是1964年3月。
So that's now over 50 years, and, of course, that hasn't really happened. 如今五十多年过去了, 美国并没有发生动荡。
And that's been the story again and again. 这样的故事从此不断上演:
This alarm has been raised repeatedly , but it's always been a false alarm . 警钟一再响起, 但最终总是虚惊一场。
repeatedly:adv.反复地;再三地;屡次地; false alarm:假警报;虚警;
And because it's been a false alarm, it's led to a very conventional way of thinking about this. 随着虚惊不断发生, 人们对其产生了思维惯性:
conventional:adj.符合习俗的,传统的;常见的;惯例的;
And that says essentially that yes, technology may devastate entire industries. 动荡本质上无可避免, 新技术势必席卷整个工业界
essentially:adv.本质上;本来; devastate:v.彻底破坏;摧毁;毁灭;使震惊;使极为忧伤;
It may wipe out whole occupations and types of work. 并取代所有的工作岗位。
wipe:v.擦;抹;拭;消除;n.擦;拭;揩;(湿)抹布; occupations:n.[劳经]职业;行业;占有;日常活动(occupation的复数);
But at the same time , of course, progress is going to lead to entirely new things. 但与此同时, 科技进步也将带来全新的变化。
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时;
So there will be new industries that will arise in the future, and those industries, of course, will have to hire people. 在未来,新型工业将会兴起, 势必产生新的用人需求。
arise:v.出现;发生;产生;起身;
There'll be new kinds of work that will appear, and those might be things that today we can't really even imagine. 未来将会出现全新的工作, 有的甚至今天我们根本无法想像。
And that has been the story so far, and it's been a positive story. 这便是迄今为止的故事, 一直是令人乐观的。
positive:adj.积极的;[数]正的,[医][化学]阳性的;确定的;n.正数;[摄]正片;
It turns out that the new jobs that have been created have generally been a lot better than the old ones. 事实证明,新出现的工作 通常远胜过旧的工作。
generally:adv.通常;普遍地,一般地;
They have, for example, been more engaging . 新工作更有吸引力,
engaging:adj.有趣的; v.吸引住(注意力、兴趣); (engage的现在分词)
They've been in safer, more comfortable work environments, and, of course, they've paid more. 工作环境更为安全舒适, 挣得自然也更多。
So it has been a positive story. 所以这个故事是乐观的,
That's the way things have played out so far. 而事情迄今的发展亦是如此。
played out:adj.失去影响(或作用);
But there is one particular class of worker for whom the story has been quite different. 但有一类特殊的劳动群体, 其境遇却全然不同。
For these workers, technology has completely decimated their work, and it really hasn't created any new opportunities at all. 对这个群体来说, 科技彻底取代了他们的工作, 却并未为其带来任何新的就业机会。
decimated:v.摧毁;大幅度下降(decimate的过去式及过去分词);
And these workers, of course, are horses. 当然,我所指的“劳动群体”, 正是马。
(Laughter) （笑声）
So I can ask a very provocative question: 由此我便能提出一个尖锐的问题:
provocative:adj.刺激的,挑拨的;气人的;n.刺激物,挑拨物;兴奋剂;
Is it possible that at some point in the future, a significant fraction of the human workforce is going to be made redundant in the way that horses were? 在未来,是否有可能 会出现相当数量的劳动力冗余 正如马的遭遇一般？
significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物; fraction:n.分数;小部分;小数;少量; workforce:n.劳动大军;全体员工; redundant:adj.多余的,过剩的;被解雇的,失业的;冗长的,累赘的; in the way:妨碍;挡道;
Now, you might have a very visceral , reflexive reaction to that. 出于本能,人们可能会下意识地
visceral:adj.内脏的;出于本能的;发自肺腑的;粗俗的; reflexive:n.反身代词;反身动词;adj.反身的;[物]反射的; reaction:n.反应,感应;反动,复古;反作用;
You might say, "That's absurd . 反驳道:“荒唐！
absurd:adj.荒谬的;可笑的;n.荒诞;荒诞作品;
How can you possibly compare human beings to horses?" 牲畜岂能和人相比？”
compare:v.比较;对比;n.比较;
Horses, of course, are very limited , and when cars and trucks and tractors came along, horses really had nowhere else to turn. 马的能力固然有限, 当汽车、卡车和拖拉机出现后, 马便没了用武之地。
limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式) nowhere:v.无处; n.无处; adj.不存在的;
People, on the other hand , are intelligent; we can learn, we can adapt . 但人却是具有智慧的, 能够学习,并且会适应环境。
on the other hand:另一方面; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
And in theory, that ought to mean that we can always find something new to do, and that we can always remain relevant to the future economy . 因此理论上讲, 人应当总能找到新的工作, 始终保持与未来经济的联系。
relevant:adj.相关的;切题的;中肯的;有重大关系的;有意义的,目的明确的; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
But here's the really critical thing to understand. 但我们必须意识到的关键是,
critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
The machines that will threaten workers in the future are really nothing like those cars and trucks and tractors that displaced horses. 未来将威胁取代劳动力的机器 和取代了马匹的汽车、卡车或拖拉机 绝不可同日而语。
displaced:v.取代;替代;置换;迫使(某人)离开家园;转移;(displace的过去式和过去分词)
The future is going to be full of thinking, learning, adapting machines. 未来的机器将具有思维,学习和适应能力。
adapting:v.使适应,使适合;适应;改编;改写;(adapt的现在分词)
And what that really means is that technology is finally beginning to encroach on that fundamental human capability -- the thing that makes us so different from horses, and the very thing that, so far, 这便真正意味着 技术终将开始入侵 最根本的人类能力—— 那种使我们有别于动物的能力。 正是由于这种能力,
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; encroach on:侵犯;蚕食; fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的; capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量;
has allowed us to stay ahead of the march of progress and remain relevant, and, in fact, indispensable to the economy. 人们才能引领时代发展, 并始终作用于经济 成为其不可或缺的重要一环。
indispensable to:adj.不可缺少的;
So what is it that is really so different about today's information technology relative to what we've seen in the past? 所以今天的信息技术 相对于过去的技术革新 其不同之处究竟在哪里呢？
information technology:n.信息技术; relative:adj.相对的;有关系的;成比例的;n.亲戚;相关物;[语]关系词;亲缘植物;
I would point to three fundamental things. 我将指出三个基本的方面。
The first thing is that we have seen this ongoing process of exponential acceleration . 第一,我们已经目睹了这一进程 指数爆炸式的增长速度。
ongoing:n.发展; adj.持续存在的; process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的; exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数; acceleration:n.加速,促进;[物]加速度;
I know you all know about Moore's law, but in fact, it's more broad-based than that; it extends in many cases, for example, to software, it extends to communications, bandwidth and so forth. 想必大家都了解摩尔定律, 但其适用面其实要宽广得多 涵盖了很多不同领域的发展规律, 比如软件,通讯,带宽增长等。
broad-based:adj.无限的;基础深厚的; extends:v.使伸长;扩大;扩展;延长;使延期;(extend的第三人称单数) bandwidth:n.[电子][物]带宽;[通信]频带宽度;
But the really key thing to understand is that this acceleration has now been going on for a really long time. 但我们要意识到的关键是 这种增长已经持续了很久,
In fact, it's been going on for decades. 实际上已经有几十年了。
If you measure from the late 1950s, when the first integrated circuits were fabricated , we've seen something on the order of 30 doublings in computational power since then. 若从五十年代末 第一批集成电路问世算起, 我们现今的计算能力已经翻了30番。
integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词) circuits:n.环行路线;电路;线路;巡回赛;v.巡回;周游;(circuit的第三人称单数和复数) fabricated:adj.焊接的; v.制造,组装; (fabricate的过去式和过去分词); doublings:n.加倍; v.使加倍; adj.双重的; computational:adj.计算的;
That's just an extraordinary number of times to double any quantity , and what it really means is that we're now at a point where we're going to see just an extraordinary amount of absolute progress, 对于任何事物,这样的增长量都是惊人的, 它意味着 我们正处在一个时间点, 能够目睹科技巨大的进步,
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; quantity:n.量;数量;大量;数额;
and, of course, things are going to continue to also accelerate from this point. 并且从今往后,科技仍将 继续加速增长。
accelerate:v.加快;加速;n.接受速成教育的学生;
So as we look forward to the coming years and decades, 因此,当我们期待若干年后的未来时,
look forward to:盼望,期待;
I think that means that we're going to see things that we're really not prepared for. 我们将面临始料未及的变迁; 我们将见证令人惊奇的成就。
We're going to see things that astonish us. 我们将见证令人惊奇的成就。
astonish:v.使惊讶;
The second key thing is that the machines are, in a limited sense, beginning to think. 第二, 狭义上讲,机器开始具有思考能力。
And by this, I don't mean human-level AI, or science fiction artificial intelligence; 我此话所指,并非是智力堪比人类, 或是科幻小说中出现的人工智能。
science fiction:科幻小说; artificial:adj.人造的;仿造的;虚伪的;非原产地的;武断的;
I simply mean that machines and algorithms are making decisions. 我只想指出,机器和算法将能够进行决策,
They're solving problems, and most importantly , they're learning. 解决问题,以及最重要的,能够自我学习。
and most importantly:最主要的是…;
In fact, if there's one technology that is truly central to this and has really become the driving force behind this, it's machine learning, which is just becoming this incredibly powerful, disruptive , scalable technology. 其实如果说有一项核心技术 是科技进步的关键驱动力, 那便是机器学习, 一项正在显示其惊人威力, 颠覆性,以及扩展性的技术。
incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; disruptive:adj.破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的; scalable:adj.可攀登的;可去鳞的;可称量的;
One of the best examples I've seen of that recently was what Google 's DeepMind division was able to do with its AlphaGo system. 近来我见到的最佳事例 就有谷歌DeepMind团队研发了 AlphaGo系统,
recently:adv.最近;新近; Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎; division:n.师;分配;分开;分歧;
Now, this is the system that was able to beat the best player in the world at the ancient game of Go. 在历史悠久的围棋游戏上 击败了世界最强高手。
Now, at least to me, there are two things that really stand out about the game of Go. 而至少在我看来, 围棋有两个突出的特点。
One is that as you're playing the game, the number of configurations that the board can be in is essentially infinite . 其一是在下棋时, 棋盘上可能的变化 基本上无法穷尽。
configurations:n.配置(configuration的复数);立体基阵; infinite:adj.无限的,无穷的; n.无限;
There are actually more possibilities than there are atoms in the universe. 棋局的数目甚至比宇宙中的原子还要多。
atoms:n.[物]原子(atom的复数);
So what that means is, you're never going to be able to build a computer to win at the game of Go the way chess was approached , for example, which is basically to throw brute-force computational power at it. 这便意味着, 若要造出一台下围棋能赢的电脑, 采用设计国际象棋软件的思路, 通过增加计算资源暴力破解,是不可行的,
approached:v.走近;临近;探讨;建议;(approach的过去分词和过去式) basically:adv.主要地,基本上; brute-force:n.强力攻击;蛮力;
So clearly, a much more sophisticated , thinking-like approach is needed. 必然要采用一种更为复杂,更贴近思考的途径。
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的;
The second thing that really stands out is that, if you talk to one of the championship Go players, this person cannot necessarily even really articulate what exactly it is they're thinking about as they play the game . 第二个突出的特点便是, 即便去请教一位围棋冠军, 他也不一定能讲清自己下棋时 究竟是如何思考的。
championship:n.锦标赛;冠军称号;冠军的地位; necessarily:adv.必要地;必定地,必然地; articulate:vt.清晰地发(音); vi.发音; adj.发音清晰的; play the game:玩游戏;行动光明正大;遵守比赛规则;
It's often something that's very intuitive , it's almost just like a feeling about which move they should make. 棋手常依赖某种直观的判断, 几乎是凭感觉,来决定该走哪手棋。
intuitive:adj.直觉的;凭直觉获知的;
So given those two qualities, 鉴于以上两点,
I would say that playing Go at a world champion level really ought to be something that's safe from automation, and the fact that it isn't should really raise a cautionary flag for us. 按说要把围棋下到世界冠军水平, 机器是无法胜任的, 而事实并非如此,我们应当引起警惕了。
cautionary:adj.警告的;劝诫的;
And the reason is that we tend to draw a very distinct line, and on one side of that line are all the jobs and tasks that we perceive as being on some level fundamentally routine and repetitive and predictable . 究其原因,我们习惯划一条明确的界线 在界线的一侧,是我们认为 较为基础,常规,重复 且容易预测的工作。
distinct:adj.明显的;独特的;清楚的;有区别的; perceive:v.注意到;意识到;将…理解为;认为; fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 repetitive:adj.重复的; predictable:adj.可预言的;
And we know that these jobs might be in different industries, they might be in different occupations and at different skill levels, but because they are innately predictable, 这类工作可能来自不同行业, 不同岗位,所需技能也有高低之分, 但本质上都是可以预测的,
innately:adv.天赋地;与生俱来的;
we know they're probably at some point going to be susceptible to machine learning, and therefore, to automation. 因此终有一日会受到 并走向自动化。 并走向自动化。
susceptible:adj.易受影响的;易感动的;容许…的;n.易得病的人;
And make no mistake -- that's a lot of jobs. 这类工作数目可是不少
That's probably something on the order of roughly half the jobs in the economy. 经济体中差不多一半的工作 都属于此类。
roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地;
But then on the other side of that line, we have all the jobs that require some capability that we perceive as being uniquely human, and these are the jobs that we think are safe. 而界线另一侧的工作, 我们认为需要特殊的能力, 只有人能胜任, 所以这些工作是安全的。
on the other side:另一面;在另一边; uniquely:adv.独特地;珍奇地;
Now, based on what I know about the game of Go, 以我对围棋的了解,
I would've guessed that it really ought to be on the safe side of that line. 我猜它应该在分界线“安全”的一侧。
But the fact that it isn't, and that Google solved this problem, suggests that that line is going to be very dynamic . 但谷歌攻克了这一难题,否定了我的猜测, 也说明这条分界线将会剧烈变动,
dynamic:n.动力; adj.充满活力的;
It's going to shift , and it's going to shift in a way that consumes more and more jobs and tasks that we currently perceive as being safe from automation. 移向安全的一侧, 将我们当前认为无法自动化的工作任务 逐渐纳入不安全的范围。
shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换; consumes:v.消耗,耗费;吃;喝;饮;使充满(强烈的感情);(consume的第三人称单数) currently:adv.当前;一般地;
The other key thing to understand is that this is by no means just about low-wage jobs or blue-collar jobs, or jobs and tasks done by people that have relatively low levels of education. 还有一点需要了解, 会遭受冲击的不只是低薪的蓝领工作, 或是教育程度较低的人 所从事的工作。
by no means:决不; blue-collar:adj.穿蓝领工装的;体力劳动的;蓝领阶级; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地;
There's lots of evidence to show that these technologies are rapidly climbing the skills ladder . 诸多证据表明 科技的威力正在飞速攀升。
evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; ladder:n.阶梯;途径;梯状物;v.成名;发迹;在…上装设梯子;
So we already see an impact on professional jobs -- tasks done by people like accountants , financial analysts , journalists , lawyers, radiologists and so forth. 我们已经看到科技对专业工作的冲击, 受到冲击的包括会计师 财政分析师 记者 律师,以及放射科医师等。
impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; professional:adj.专业的;职业的;职业性的;n.专业人员;职业运动员; accountants:n.会计;会计师;(accountant的复数) financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; analysts:n.分析师;分析家;[分化]分析员(analyst的复数); journalists:n.新闻记者(journalist的复数); radiologists:放射线学者;[特医]放射科医师(radiologist的名词复数);
So a lot of the assumptions that we make about the kind of occupations and tasks and jobs that are going to be threatened by automation in the future are very likely to be challenged going forward. 而我们目前有很多假设 在探讨哪些职业、任务和工作 未来将遭到自动化的冲击。 这些假设将来都很可能遭到挑战。
assumptions:n.假定;假设;承担;获得;(assumption的复数)
So as we put these trends together, 当我们汇总这些趋势后,
trends:n.趋势;倾向;动态;动向;(trend的第三人称单数和复数)
I think what it shows is that we could very well end up in a future with significant unemployment. 便能看出,未来我们很可能面临 严重的失业。
Or at a minimum , we could face lots of underemployment or stagnant wages , maybe even declining wages. 就算退一万步讲, 我们也会面临就业不足,或者工资水平停滞 乃至下降。
minimum:n.最低限度;最小值;最少量;极小量;adj.最低的;最小的;最低限度的; underemployment:n.[劳经]不充分就业;未按专长就业; stagnant:adj.停滞的;不景气的;污浊的;迟钝的; wages:n.[劳经]工资; v.开展(运动等)(wage的第三人称单数形式); declining:v.减少;下降;衰弱;谢绝;婉言拒绝;(decline的现在分词)
And, of course, soaring levels of inequality. 社会不平等自然也会激增。
soaring:adj.翱翔的;高耸的;猛增的;v.高耸;高飞;猛增;(soar的现在分词形式)
All of that, of course, is going to put a terrific amount of stress on the fabric of society. 以上问题势必会给社会结构 带来巨大压力。
terrific:adj.极好的;极其的,非常的;可怕的;
But beyond that, there's also a fundamental economic problem, and that arises because jobs are currently the primary mechanism that distributes income, and therefore purchasing power , to all the consumers that buy the products and services we're producing. 除此之外,还有一个根本的经济问题: 就业是我们当前主要的收入分配机制, 有了收入,消费者就有了购买力 可以购买人们生产出的产品和服务。
arises:v.出现;发生;站立; mechanism:n.机制;原理,途径;进程;机械装置;技巧; distributes:vt.分配;散布;分开;把…分类; purchasing power:n.(人民的)购买力;(货币的)购买力; consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数)
In order to have a vibrant market economy, you've got to have lots and lots of consumers that are really capable of buying the products and services that are being produced. 为使市场经济繁荣, 需要大量有购买力的消费者 来消化社会生产出的产品和服务。
vibrant:adj.振动的;充满生气的;响亮的;战栗的; capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的;
If you don't have that, then you run the risk of economic stagnation , or maybe even a declining economic spiral , as there simply aren't enough customers out there to buy the products and services being produced. 否则我们就会面临经济停滞 甚至螺旋式下降的风险, 甚至螺旋式下降的风险, 因为没有足够的消费者 购买生产出的产品和服务。
stagnation:n.停滞;滞止; spiral:n.螺旋;旋涡;螺旋形之物;adj.螺旋形的;v.使成螺旋形;vi.盘旋;螺旋形上升;
It's really important to realize that all of us as individuals rely on access to that market economy in order to be successful. 重要的是要认识到, 作为个体,我们每个人都要靠参与市场经济 来获得成功。
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数); rely:vi.依靠;信赖;
You can visualize that by thinking in terms of one really exceptional person. 我们不妨来想象一位杰出的人物,
visualize:vt.形象,形象化;想像,设想;vi.显现; exceptional:adj.异常的,例外的;n.超常的学生;
Imagine for a moment you take, say, Steve Jobs, and you drop him on an island all by himself. 比如说史蒂夫·乔布斯, 把他一个人丢在荒岛上,
On that island, he's going to be running around, gathering coconuts just like anyone else. 让他四处奔走 去收集椰子,和其他人一样。
coconuts:n.[园艺]椰子(coconut的复数);
He's really not going to be anything special, and the reason, of course, is that there is no market for him to scale his incredible talents across. 他肯定成不了什么“乔帮主”, 原因很显然,岛上没有手机市场 能让他施展才智,大显身手。
scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; incredible:adj.难以置信的,惊人的;
So access to this market is really critical to us as individuals, and also to the entire system in terms of it being sustainable . 所以市场对我们个人来说至关重要, 同时也是整个社会可持续发展的重中之重。
sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的;
So the question then becomes: What exactly could we do about this? 那么问题就变成了,我们究竟该如何应对挑战？
And I think you can view this through a very utopian framework. 我们可以在非常理想的框架中看待这一问题。
utopian:adj.乌托邦的;空想的;理想化的;n.空想家;乌托邦的居民;
You can imagine a future where we all have to work less, we have more time for leisure , more time to spend with our families, more time to do things that we find genuinely rewarding and so forth. 设想在未来,我们都会减少工作, 拥有更多闲暇时光陪伴家人, 或者做些真正怡情养性的事情,等等。 或者做些真正怡情养性的事情,等等。 这是非常美妙的愿景,
leisure:n.休闲;闲暇;空闲;adj.闲暇的; genuinely:adv.真诚地;诚实地; rewarding:adj.有益的;值得做的;报酬高的;v.奖励;奖赏;给以报酬;(reward的现在分词)
And I think that's a terrific vision. 这是非常美妙的愿景,
That's something that we should absolutely strive to move toward. 值得我们为之全力奋斗。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; strive:v.力求;斗争;反抗;(strive的第三人称单数)
But at the same time, I think we have to be realistic , and we have to realize that we're very likely to face a significant income distribution problem. 但同时我们也要务实, 要意识到 我们极有可能面临严重的收入分配问题。
realistic:adj.现实的;现实主义的;逼真的;实在论的; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
A lot of people are likely to be left behind. 许多人可能会落在后面。
And I think that in order to solve that problem, we're ultimately going to have to find a way to decouple incomes from traditional work. 要解决收入分配问题, 我们最终要找到一条途径 将收入与传统的工作分离。
ultimately:adv.最终;最后;归根结底;终究; decouple:vt.减弱震波;n.[电]去耦; traditional:传统的,惯例的,
And the best, more straightforward way I know to do that is some kind of a guaranteed income or universal basic income. 而据我所知,最直接有效的方法 便是设立某种无条件基本收入。
straightforward:adj.简单的;坦率的;明确的;径直的;adv.直截了当地;坦率地; guaranteed:adj.必然的; v.保证; universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的;
Now, basic income is becoming a very important idea. 基本收入已经成为重要的概念,
It's getting a lot of traction and attention, there are a lot of important pilot projects and experiments going on throughout the world. 广受关注及推崇, 世界各国也相继开展了 很多重大试点项目。
traction:n.牵引;[机][车辆]牵引力; throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
My own view is that a basic income is not a panacea; it's not necessarily a plug-and-play solution , but rather, it's a place to start. 我认为基本收入不是灵丹妙药, 不是“一用就见效”的解决方案。 这仅是一个起点,一个设想
plug-and-play:n.一种不必经由用户复杂安装即可使用的软件,即插即用; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答;
It's an idea that we can build on and refine . 还有待我们在其基础上加以完善。
refine:v.精炼;改进;改善;提纯;
For example, one thing that I have written quite a lot about is the possibility of incorporating explicit incentives into a basic income. 例如,我围绕这样一个设想写过不少文章, 那便是,将显性激励整合到基本收入中。
incorporating:v.将…包括在内;包含;吸收;使并入;注册成立;(incorporate的现在分词) explicit:adj.明确的;清楚的;直率的;详述的; incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施;
To illustrate that, imagine that you are a struggling high school student. 我具体解释一下, 想象你是个苦苦挣扎的高中生,
illustrate:v.解释;加插图于;给(书等)做图表;表明…真实;
Imagine that you are at risk of dropping out of school. 正面临被开除的风险。
And yet, suppose you know that at some point in the future, no matter what , you're going to get the same basic income as everyone else. 但假设你知道未来有这么一天, 不管什么情况下, 你都能得到和其他人一样的基本收入。
suppose:v.推断:假定:假设:设想: no matter what:不管什么…;
Now, to my mind, that creates a very perverse incentive for you to simply give up and drop out of school. 在我看来,这将造成一种不当动机 使你甘心直接退学。
perverse:adj.堕落的,不正当的;倔强的;违反常情的;
So I would say, let's not structure things that way. 所以说,办事不能这样一刀切。
structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造;
Instead, let's pay people who graduate from high school somewhat more than those who simply drop out. 反之,与辍学的人相比,应该给高中毕业的人 更多一些的收入。
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
And we can take that idea of building incentives into a basic income, and maybe extend it to other areas. 这种将激励整合到基本收入中的做法, 我们也可以用在其他领域中。
For example, we might create an incentive to work in the community to help others, or perhaps to do positive things for the environment, and so forth. 比如,我们可以创造激励来鼓励社区义工, 鼓励互相帮助, 鼓励保护环境的行为,等等。
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
So by incorporating incentives into a basic income, we might actually improve it, and also, perhaps, take at least a couple of steps towards solving another problem 通过将激励纳入基本收入制度中, 我们便能改善这一制度, 或者把步子迈得再大些, 去解决另一个问题
improve:v.改进;改善;
that I think we're quite possibly going to face in the future, and that is, how do we all find meaning and fulfillment , and how do we occupy our time in a world where perhaps there's less demand for traditional work? ——未来我们很可能要面对的问题。 那就是:未来我们可能不再需要大量的传统工作了, 那我们又该如何利用时间, 寻找生命的意义,实现人生的圆满呢？
fulfillment:n.履行;实行; occupy:v.占据,占领;居住;使忙碌;
So by extending and refining a basic income, 因此,通过改良并推广基本收入制度,
extending:v.使伸长;扩大;扩展;延长;(extend的现在分词) refining:v.精炼;提纯;去除杂质;改进;(refine的现在分词)
I think we can make it look better, and we can also, perhaps, make it more politically and socially acceptable and feasible -- and, of course, by doing that, we increase the odds that it will actually come to be. 我们可以令其更为合意, 并且更容易为政界采纳, 最终有更大的几率 使这项制度真正落地。
politically:adv.政治上; acceptable:adj.认同的;可接受的;令人满意的; feasible:adj.可行的;可能的;可实行的; odds:n.几率;胜算;不平等;差别;
I think one of the most fundamental, almost instinctive objections that many of us have to the idea of a basic income, or really to any significant expansion of the safety net , 对于推行基本收入制度, 或者任何重大的保险金制度, 我想很多人都会持反对意见。 其中有一条意见尤为根本,
instinctive:adj.本能的;直觉的;天生的; objections:n.反对,异议(objection的复数形式);反对意见; expansion:n.扩张;膨胀;扩展;扩大; safety net:n.安全保障;为防止人摔落而设置的安全网;
is this fear that we're going to end up with too many people riding in the economic cart , and not enough people pulling that cart. 几乎是出于本能,我们会担心 最终有太多人安于坐享其成, 而没有足够的人真正去推动经济发展。
cart:n.运货马车;手推车;手拉车;v.用车装运;用手提;强行带走;抓走;.
And yet, really, the whole point I'm making here, of course, is that in the future, machines are increasingly going to be capable of pulling that cart for us. 而我在此要表达的观点是 在未来, 机器将会替我们更好地推动经济发展。
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地;
That should give us more options for the way we structure our society and our economy, 这给我们构建社会,组织经济 提供了更多选择方案。
options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式)
And I think eventually , it's going to go beyond simply being an option, and it's going to become an imperative . 而我相信,最终这将不仅只是一种选择, 更将成为大势所趋。
eventually:adv.最后,终于; imperative:adj.重要紧急的; n.重要紧急的事;
The reason, of course, is that all of this is going to put such a degree of stress on our society, and also because jobs are that mechanism that gets purchasing power to consumers so they can then drive the economy. 原因很显然,当今发生的一切 将使社会面临巨大的压力, 而就业机制又是 赋予消费者购买力, 驱动经济发展的重要抓手。
If, in fact, that mechanism begins to erode in the future, then we're going to need to replace it with something else or we're going to face the risk that our whole system simply may not be sustainable. 如果未来这一机制遭到侵蚀, 我们便需要采用其他措施。 否则我们便将面临 社会无法持续运转的风险。
erode:vt.腐蚀,侵蚀;vi.侵蚀;受腐蚀;
But the bottom line here is that I really think that solving these problems, and especially finding a way to build a future economy that works for everyone, at every level of our society, 但有一点我坚信不疑, 那便是:如何解决这些问题, 尤其是寻找一条构建未来经济的途径 使得社会中每个阶层 均能从中受益,
the bottom line:底线;本质内容;最底线; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分;
is going to be one of the most important challenges that we all face in the coming years and decades. 将是我们未来亟需共同面对的 至关重要的挑战。
Thank you very much. 谢谢大家！
(Applause) （掌声）