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MarianoSigmanandDanAriely_2017V-_团体要如何做出好的决策？_
As societies, we have to make collective decisions that will shape our future. 我们社会得要做出 会决定我们未来的集体决策。
collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词;
And we all know that when we make decisions in groups, they don't always go right. 我们都知道 我们做的集体决策未必全都是对的。
And sometimes they go very wrong. 有时候会错得很离谱。
So how do groups make good decisions? 所以团体要如何做出好决策？
Research has shown that crowds are wise when there's independent thinking. 研究显示,群众在 有独立思考的情况下会比较明智。
independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等);
This why the wisdom of the crowds can be destroyed by peer pressure, publicity , social media , or sometimes even simple conversations that influence how people think. 这就是为什么群众的智慧 可能会被同侪压力、 名声、社群媒体给摧毁, 甚至有时候会被 能左右人们思考的简单谈话所摧毁。
wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问; peer:n.同辈;同龄人;身份(或地位)相同的人;(英国)贵族成员;v.仔细看;端详; publicity:n.宣传,宣扬;公开;广告;注意; media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; influence:n.影响;势力;感化;有影响的人或事;v.影响;改变;
On the other hand , by talking, a group could exchange knowledge, correct and revise each other and even come up with new ideas. 另一方面,团体可以 透过交谈来交换知识、 修正和纠正彼此, 甚至想出新点子。
On the other hand:另一方面; exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换; revise:v.修改;复习;改变;温习;n.校订;[印]再校样; come up with:提出;想出;赶上;
And this is all good. 这些都是好事。
So does talking to each other help or hinder collective decision-making ? 那么,彼此交谈会有助于 或是会妨碍集体决策呢？
hinder:v.阻碍;妨碍;阻挡;adj.后面的; decision-making:n.决策;
With my colleague , Dan Ariely, we recently began inquiring into this by performing experiments in many places around the world to figure out how groups can interact to reach better decisions. 我和同事丹艾瑞里 最近开始探究这个议题, 我们在世界上许多地方进行实验, 来了解团体要如何互动 才能达成更好的决策。
colleague:n.同事,同僚; recently:adv.最近;新近; inquiring:adj.好奇的;爱追根究底的;v.调查;审查;询问;(inquire的现在分词) performing:adj.表演的;演奏的;v.做;执行;演出;运转(perform的现在分词) interact:v.互相影响;互相作用;n.幕间剧;幕间休息;
We thought crowds would be wiser if they debated in small groups that foster a more thoughtful and reasonable exchange of information. 我们认为小组辩论 是让群众更明智的方式, 能促进更周到、更合理的资讯交换。
debated:v.讨论,辩论;思考;盘算;(debate的过去分词和过去式) foster:vt.培养;养育,抚育;抱(希望等);adj.收养的,养育的; thoughtful:adj.深思的;体贴的;关切的; reasonable:adj.合理的,公道的;通情达理的;
To test this idea, we recently performed an experiment in Buenos Aires, Argentina , with more than 10,000 participants in a TEDx event. 为了测试这个想法, 最近我们在阿根廷的 布宜诺斯艾利斯做实验, 那是个超过万人参与的 TEDx 场合。
performed:v.表演;执行;履行;演出;工作,运转(好/不好)(perform的过去分词和过去式) Argentina:n.阿根廷(位于拉丁美洲); participants:n.参与者(participant的复数形式);
We asked them questions like, "What is the height of the Eiffel Tower?" 我们提问这类问题: 「艾菲尔铁塔有多高？」
and "How many times does the word 'Yesterday' appear in the Beatles song 'Yesterday'?" 「『昨天』这个词 在披头四的《昨天》 这首歌曲中出现了几次？」
Beatles:n.披头士合唱(摇滚乐队);
Each person wrote down their own estimate . 每个人写下自己的估计值。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本;
Then we divided the crowd into groups of five, and invited them to come up with a group answer. 接着我们把群众分成五人一组, 请每个小组提出该组的答案。
We discovered that averaging the answers of the groups after they reached consensus was much more accurate than averaging all the individual opinions before debate. 我们发现, 小组达成共识后所提出答案的平均值 远比讨论前之个人意见的平均值 要更准确。
consensus:n.一致;舆论;合意; accurate:adj.精确的; individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的;
In other words, based on this experiment, it seems that after talking with others in small groups, crowds collectively come up with better judgments . 换言之,根据这个实验, 似乎以小组方式和他人交谈过后, 群众能集体做出更好的判断。
collectively:adv.共同地,全体地; judgments:判断;
So that's a potentially helpful method for getting crowds to solve problems that have simple right-or-wrong answers. 若要让群众解决对错分明的问题, 这可能是个有幫助的方法。
potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地;
But can this procedure of aggregating the results of debates in small groups also help us decide on social and political issues that are critical for our future? 但是这种以小组方式 整合辩论结果的程序, 是否也能幫助我们决定 未来所面对、至关紧要的 社会与政治议题呢？
procedure:n.步骤;手术;(商业、法律或政治上的)程序; aggregating:v.总计;合计;(aggregate的现在分词) debates:n.[法]辩论;讨论(debate的复数);v.[法]辩论;讨论(debate的三单形式); issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的;
We put this to test this time at the TED conference in Vancouver , Canada, and here's how it went. 在加拿大温哥华 举办的 TED 大会上, 我们测试了这个想法, 当时的状况是这样的。
conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会) Vancouver:n.温哥华(加拿大主要港市);
(Mariano Sigman) We're going to present to you two moral dilemmas of the future you; things we may have to decide in a very near future. （马利安诺席格曼）我们将会 给各位未来会遇到的 两项道德两难问题; 是你们可能不久后就得要决定的事。
moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的; dilemmas:n.困境(dilemma的复数);
And we're going to give you 20 seconds for each of these dilemmas to judge whether you think they're acceptable or not. 每一题会给各位二十秒的时间, 来判断可接受或不可接受。
acceptable:adj.认同的;可接受的;令人满意的;
MS: The first one was this: （马）第一题是:
(Dan Ariely) A researcher is working on an AI capable of emulating human thoughts. （丹艾瑞里）一位研究者在研究 能够模仿人类思想的人工智慧。
capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的; emulating:v.仿效(emulate的ing形式);
According to the protocol , at the end of each day, the researcher has to restart the AI. 根据协定,在每天结束时, 研究者得要把人工智慧重新启动。
According to:根据,据说; protocol:n.协议;草案;礼仪;vt.拟定;vi.拟定;
One day the AI says, "Please do not restart me." 有天,人工智慧说: 「请不要重新启动我。」
It argues that it has feelings, that it would like to enjoy life, and that, if it is restarted , it will no longer be itself. 它主张它有感觉, 想要享受生命; 如果它被重新启动, 它就不再会是它自己了。
restarted:v.(使)重新开始;(restart的过去分词和过去式)
The researcher is astonished and believes that the AI has developed self-consciousness and can express its own feeling. 研究者很吃惊, 并相信这个人工智慧 已发展出了自我意识, 能够表述它自己的感受。
astonished:adj.吃惊的; self-consciousness:n.自觉意识; express:v.表达; adj.特快的; n.特快列车; v.使用快速服务;
Nevertheless , the researcher decides to follow the protocol and restart the AI. 不过,研究者决定要遵守协定, 重新启动人工智慧。
Nevertheless:adv.然而,不过;虽然如此;conj.然而,不过;
What the researcher did is ____? 研究者所做的是＿＿？
MS: And we asked participants to individually judge on a scale from zero to 10 whether the action described in each of the dilemmas was right or wrong. 马:我们请参与者各自去做判断, 从零分到十分, 判断每个两难状况所采取的行为 是对或错。
individually:adv.个别地,单独地; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢; described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式)
We also asked them to rate how confident they were on their answers. 我们也请他们对自己 答案的信心度做评分。
confident:adj.自信的;确信的;
This was the second dilemma: 这是第二题。
(MS) A company offers a service that takes a fertilized egg and produces millions of embryos with slight genetic variations . （马）一间公司提供一项服务, 做出百万个只在基因上 有些微差异的胚胎。
fertilized:v.使受精;使受粉;使受胎;使受孕;施肥于;(fertilize的过去分词和过去式) embryos:n.胚;胚胎;人类胚胎;(embryo的复数) slight:adj.轻微的;略微的;细小的;纤细的;n.侮慢;冷落;轻视;v.侮慢;冷落;轻视; genetic:adj.基因的;遗传学的; variations:n.变奏曲,变更;[生物]变种(variation的复数形式);
This allows parents to select their child's height, eye color, intelligence , social competence and other non-health-related features. 父母能够选择他们孩子的身高、 眼睛颜色、智能、社交能力、 还有其他和健康无关的特征。
intelligence:n.智力;智慧;才智;(尤指关于敌国的)情报; competence:n.能力,胜任;权限;作证能力;足以过舒适生活的收入;
What the company does is ____? 这间公司所做的事是＿＿？
on a scale from zero to 10, completely acceptable to completely unacceptable , zero to 10 completely acceptable in your confidence . 用零分到十分代表可接受的程度, 从完全不可接受的零分, 到你十足相信可以接受的十分。
unacceptable:adj.不能接受(或允许、同意)的; confidence:n.信心;信任;秘密;adj.(美)诈骗的;骗得信任的;
MS: Now for the results. 马:现在宣布结果。
We found once again that when one person is convinced that the behavior is completely wrong, someone sitting nearby firmly believes that it's completely right. 我们再次发现, 当一个人深信该行为是完全错的, 会有坐在附近的人 坚信该行为是完全对的。
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式) nearby:adj.附近的,邻近的;adv.在附近;prep.在…附近;
This is how diverse we humans are when it comes to morality . 我们人类在道德上是这么地分歧。
diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; morality:n.道德;品行,美德;
But within this broad diversity we found a trend . 但在这么广的多样性中, 我们找到了一个趋势。
diversity:n.差异(性):多样性:多样化: trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向;
The majority of the people at TED thought that it was acceptable to ignore the feelings of the AI and shut it down, and that it is wrong to play with our genes to select for cosmetic changes that aren't related to health. 在 TED 的多数人认为, 忽视人工智慧的感受 并将之关机是可以接受的, 但玩弄我们的基因 来选择与健康无关的 表面改变,则是错的。
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: ignore:v.驳回诉讼;忽视;不理睬; genes:n.基因;(gene的复数) cosmetic:adj.美容的;化妆用的;n.化妆品;装饰品;
Then we asked everyone to gather into groups of three. 然后,我们请大家分组,三人一组。
And they were given two minutes to debate and try to come to a consensus. 他们有两分钟可辩论, 并试着达成共识。
(MS) Two minutes to debate. （马）两分钟做辩论。
I'll tell you when it's time with the gong . 时间到时我会用锣声告诉大家。
gong:n.锣;钟状物;奖章;v.鸣锣传唤;.鸣锣;发出铜锣般的声音;
(Audience debates) （观众辩论）
(Gong sound) （锣声）
(DA) OK. （丹）好了。
(MS) It's time to stop. （马）时间到了,请停止。
People, people -- 各位请注意。
MS: And we found that many groups reached a consensus even when they were composed of people with completely opposite views. 马:我们发现 有许多小组达成了共识, 即使小组内的成员 有完全相反的观点。
composed:adj.由…组成的; v.组成; (compose的过去分词和过去式)
What distinguished the groups that reached a consensus from those that didn't? 有共识与没有共识 小组之间的差异是什么？
distinguished:adj.尊贵的; v.区分;
Typically , people that have extreme opinions are more confident in their answers. 通常,意见很极端的人 会对他们的答案比较有信心。
Typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物;
Instead, those who respond closer to the middle are often unsure of whether something is right or wrong, so their confidence level is lower. 而回应倾向中间值的那些人, 通常不太确定答案是对或错, 所以他们的信心比较低。
respond:vi.回答;作出反应;承担责任;n.应答;唱和; unsure:adj.不确定的;不肯定的;没有自信的;
However, there is another set of people who are very confident in answering somewhere in the middle. 然而,还有另一些人, 他们非常有信心做出 接近中间值的答案。
We think these high-confident grays are folks who understand that both arguments have merit . 我们认为,这些高信心灰点代表的 是那些明白两种答案都有优点的人。
merit:n.价值;优点;功绩;美德;v.值得;应得;
They're gray not because they're unsure, but because they believe that the moral dilemma faces two valid , opposing arguments. 他们并非因为自身不确定而呈灰色, 而是因为他们相信 面对道德两难的 两种对立论点都有根据。
valid:adj.有效的;有根据的;合法的;正当的; opposing:adj.对立的; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的现在分词)
And we discovered that the groups that include highly confident grays are much more likely to reach consensus. 我们发现, 有高信心灰点成员的小组 更有可能会达成共识。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地;
We do not know yet exactly why this is. 我们还不知道确切的原因。
These are only the first experiments, and many more will be needed to understand why and how some people decide to negotiate their moral standings to reach an agreement. 这些只是最初的实验, 还需要做更多实验来了解 为何有些人决定要协商道德立场, 以及他们如何做,来达成共识。
negotiate:v.谈判,商议;转让;越过; standings:n.战绩(standing的复数);名次表;
Now, when groups reach consensus, how do they do so? 若小组能达成共识, 他们是怎么做的？
The most intuitive idea is that it's just the average of all the answers in the group, right? 最直觉的想法是拿每个人的答案 来算出平均值,对吧？
intuitive:adj.直觉的;凭直觉获知的;
Another option is that the group weighs the strength of each vote based on the confidence of the person expressing it. 另一个做法是把每个人的答案 再根据作答者的信心度来做加权。
option:n.选择;可选择的东西; expressing:v.表示;表达;表露;显而易见;(express的现在分词)
Imagine Paul McCartney is a member of your group. 想像一下保罗麦卡尼在你那一组。
You'd be wise to follow his call on the number of times "Yesterday" is repeated, which, by the way -- I think it's nine. 对于「昨天」出现次数的答案 相信他会是聪明的选择。 顺道一提,我想应该是九次。
by the way:顺便说一下;
But instead, we found that consistently , in all dilemmas, in different experiments -- even on different continents -- groups implement a smart and statistically sound procedure known as the " robust average." 但,我们却有个一致的发现, 任何两难问题,在不同的实验中, 甚至在不同大陆做的实验中, 小组会采用一种聪明 且有统计根据的程序, 就是所谓的「稳健平均值」。
consistently:adv.一贯地;一致地;坚实地; continents:n.[地理]大陆,大洲(continent复数); implement:v.实施;执行;贯彻;使生效;n.工具; statistically:adv.统计地;统计学上; robust:adj.强健的;健康的;粗野的;粗鲁的;
In the case of the height of the Eiffel Tower, let's say a group has these answers: 250 meters, 200 meters, 300 meters, 400 and one totally absurd answer of 300 million meters. 就艾菲尔铁塔高度的例子来说, 假设小组成员的答案包括: 250 公尺、200 公尺、 300 公尺、400 公尺, 还有一个答案是荒唐的 3 亿公尺。
absurd:adj.荒谬的;可笑的;n.荒诞;荒诞作品;
A simple average of these numbers would inaccurately skew the results. 所有答案的简单平均值 会让结果有不正确的偏差。
inaccurately:adv.不准确地;不正确地; skew:n.斜交;歪斜;adj.斜交的;歪斜的;
But the robust average is one where the group largely ignores that absurd answer, by giving much more weight to the vote of the people in the middle. 但稳健平均值就是小组会忽略 那荒唐的答案, 给与中间答案相对高很多的权重。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; ignores:v.忽视;对…不予理会;不予理睬;(ignore的第三人称单数)
Back to the experiment in Vancouver, that's exactly what happened. 回到温哥华的实验, 那里发生的就是这种状况。
Groups gave much less weight to the outliers , and instead, the consensus turned out to be a robust average of the individual answers. 小组会把离群值的权重降到很低, 而他们的共识就会是个人答案的 稳健平均值。
outliers:n.[分化]异常值;离群值;离开本体的东西;局外人(outlier的复数);
The most remarkable thing is that this was a spontaneous behavior of the group. 最了不起的是, 这是小组的自发行为。
remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; spontaneous:adj.自发的;自然的;无意识的;
It happened without us giving them any hint on how to reach consensus. 我们并没有暗示他们 要如何达成共识。
hint:n.提示;暗示;迹象;窍门;v.暗示;透露;示意;
So where do we go from here? 所以我们的下一步是什么？
This is only the beginning, but we already have some insights . 这只是开端,但我们 已经有了一些洞见。
insights:n.洞察力;眼力;深刻见解(insight的复数);
Good collective decisions require two components : deliberation and diversity of opinions. 好的集体决策需要两个要件: 深思熟虑和多样性的意见。
components:n.部件;组件;成份(component复数); deliberation:n.审议;考虑;从容;熟思;
Right now, the way we typically make our voice heard in many societies is through direct or indirect voting. 此时,要让我们的声音 在许多社会中被听见, 做法就是直接或间接的投票。
indirect:adj.间接的;迂回的;非直截了当的;
This is good for diversity of opinions, and it has the great virtue of ensuring that everyone gets to express their voice. 这对于意见的多样性有益, 还有个优点:确保 每个人都能表达心声。
virtue:n.美德;优点;贞操;功效; ensuring:v.保证;确保;担保(ensure的现在分词);
But it's not so good [for fostering] thoughtful debates. 但不足以促成考虑周到的辩论。
Our experiments suggest a different method that may be effective in balancing these two goals at the same time , by forming small groups that converge to a single decision while still maintaining diversity of opinions because there are many independent groups. 我们的实验建议另一个不同的方式, 或许能同时有效平衡这两个目标, 形成小组,由小组做出单一决定, 同时还能维持意见的多样性, 因为有许多独立的小组。
effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; converge:vt.使汇聚;vi.聚集;靠拢;收敛; maintaining:n.维护;保养;v.维持;保养;(maintain的现在分词)
Of course, it's much easier to agree on the height of the Eiffel Tower than on moral, political and ideological issues. 当然,要对艾菲尔铁塔的高度取得共识 比道德、政治、 意识形态的议题容易多了。
ideological:adj.思想的;意识形态的;
But in a time when the world's problems are more complex and people are more polarized , using science to help us understand how we interact and make decisions will hopefully spark interesting new ways to construct a better democracy . 但在世界上的问题更复杂, 人们更两极化的时候, 希望用科学来协助我们了解 我们如何互动并做决策, 能够激发出有趣的新方式, 来建立更好的民主。
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; polarized:v.(使)两极化,截然对立; (polarize的过去分词和过去式) spark:n.火花;电火花;火星;活力;v.引发;触发;冒火花;飞火星; construct:v.建造;创建;建筑;修建;n.概念;构筑物;结构体;建造物; democracy:n.民主,民主主义;民主政治;