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MarianoSigman_2016-_你的用词可能透露你未来的精神健康状态_
We have historical records that allow us to know how the ancient Greeks dressed, how they lived, how they fought ... 我们有历史纪录可循,可以让我们知道古希腊人如何穿着、 如何生活、 如何打仗...
historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的;
but how did they think? 但他们如何思考呢？
One natural idea is that the deepest aspects of human thought -- our ability to imagine, to be conscious , to dream -- have always been the same. 有一个很自然的方法就是,去探索人类最深层的想法—— 我们的想像力、 自觉力、 梦想力、 是否是一样的。
aspects:n.方面;相位;面貌(aspect的复数); conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的;
Another possibility is that the social transformations that have shaped our culture may have also changed the structural columns of human thought. 另一种可能是, 去探索造就我们文化的社会变革, 这些变革也许就是改变人类想法的主要因素。
transformations:n.[晶体]转变(transformation的复数形式);转换; structural:adj.结构的;建筑的; columns:n.柱:(通常为)圆形石柱:(书,报纸印刷页上的)栏(column的复数)
We may all have different opinions about this. 对这一点,大家或许有不同的看法。
Actually, it's a long-standing philosophical debate . 实际上,这是一个存在已久的哲学辩论。
long-standing:adj.长期存在的;存在已久的; philosophical:adj.哲学的(等于philosophic);冷静的; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑;
But is this question even amenable to science? 究竟这个问题是否可以经由科学来处理？
amenable:adj.有责任的,应服从的;有义务的;经得起检验的;
Here I'd like to propose that in the same way we can reconstruct how the ancient Greek cities looked just based on a few bricks, that the writings of a culture are the archaeological records, the fossils , of human thought. 我的建议是 如同仅藉由一些砖头,我们得以重建希腊古都的外貌, 也可用同样的方式, 藉由一些文化作品、建筑历史、 化石,来了解人类的想法。
propose:v.建议;提议;求婚;打算; reconstruct:vt.重建;改造;修复;重现; writings:n.作品,篇章(writing的复数形式); archaeological:adj.[古]考古学的;[古]考古学上的; fossils:n.[古生]化石(fossil复数形式);
And in fact, doing some form of psychological analysis of some of the most ancient books of human culture, 而实际上, 因为做了一些 人类古老文化书籍的心理分析,
psychological:adj.心理的;心理学的;精神上的; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定;
Julian Jaynes came up in the '70s with a very wild and radical hypothesis : that only 3,000 years ago, humans were what today we would call schizophrenics . 裘利安．杰尼斯在70年代,发表了一个相当大胆激进的假说: 他说,3000年前的人类, 是我们现在俗称的「精神分裂症患者」。
radical:n.自由基;激进分子;游离基;adj.根本的;彻底的;完全的;全新的; hypothesis:n.假设; schizophrenics:adj.精神分裂症的;n.精神分裂症的患者;
And he made this claim based on the fact that the first humans described in these books behaved consistently ,in different traditions and in different places of the world, as if they were hearing and obeying voices that they perceived as coming from the Gods,or from the muses ... 他会如此主张的原因是, 在世界各地不同的传统及地方, 这些书籍里面所描述的人类行为 似乎不约而同地都会服从 他们认为是从神祗那边传来的声音。
claim:v.要求;声称;需要;认领;n.要求;声称;索赔;断言;值得; described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式) behaved:v.表现;表现得体;有礼貌;(behave的过去分词和过去式) consistently:adv.一贯地;一致地;坚实地; obeying:v.服从;遵守;顺从;(obey的现在分词) perceived:v.注意到;意识到;将…视为;认为;(perceive的过去式和过去分词) muses:n.缪斯(诸女神);
what today we would call hallucinations . 而如今,我们会称之为「幻听」或「幻觉」。
hallucinations:n.幻视,幻听;幻觉;幻象;(hallucination的复数)
And only then, as time went on, they began to recognize that they were the creators, the owners of these inner voices. 随着时间的洗礼, 他们开始认知到那些声音是他们自己创造的, 他们就是那些内在声音的主人。
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; inner:n.内部;射中接近靶心部分的一发;adj.里面的;向内的;内部的;接近中心的;
And with this, they gained introspection : the ability to think about their own thoughts. 有了这样的认知,他们学会了自省: 一种反思自己想法的能力。
introspection:n.内省;反省;
So Jaynes's theory is that consciousness , at least in the way we perceive it today, where we feel that we are the pilots of our own existence -- is a quite recent cultural development. 所以杰尼斯对「意识」的理论就是, 至少现今我们觉察到「意识」、 感受到我们自己就是人生导师的体悟 是相当近代的文化发展。
consciousness:n.意识;知觉;觉悟;感觉; in the way:妨碍;挡道; cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的;
And this theory is quite spectacular , but it has an obvious problem which is that it's built on just a few and very specific examples. 这理论相当特别, 但它有一个很明显的问题就是, 它是建立在极少又特定的案例上。
spectacular:adj.壮观的;壮丽的;令人惊叹的;n.壮观的场面;精彩的表演; obvious:adj.明显的;显著的;平淡无奇的; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药;
So the question is whether the theory that introspection built up in human history only about 3,000 years ago can be examined in a quantitative and objective manner. 所以问题是, 3000年来人类才建立起自省能力的这个理论, 是否可以经得起「量化」且「客观」的考验。
quantitative:adj.定量的;量的,数量的; objective:n.目标; adj.客观的;
And the problem of how to go about this is quite obvious. 至于要如何做的问题,也是相当简单明瞭。
It's not like Plato woke up one day and then he wrote, "Hello, I'm Plato, and as of today, I have a fully introspective consciousness." 但我的意思并非,比如,柏拉图有一天突然醒来说, 「哈啰！我是柏拉图, 我今天,拥有完整的自省意识了」那样的简单而已。
Plato:n.柏拉图(古希腊哲学家); introspective:adj.内省的;反省的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And this tells us actually what is the essence of the problem. 而这告诉我们,我们要找出问题的本质为何。
essence:n.本质;实质;精髓;香精;
We need to find the emergence of a concept that's never said. 我们必须找到从来没有被谈论过的概念。
emergence:n.出现,浮现;发生;露头;
The word introspection does not appear a single time in the books we want to analyze . 「自省」这个字, 在这些书本中从未出现过一次。
analyze:v.对…进行分析,分解(等于analyse);
So our way to solve this is to build the space of words. 所以为了解决这个问题,我们要建立一个文字的空间。
This is a huge space that contains all words in such a way that the distance between any two of them is indicative of how closely related they are. 在这个大空间里,包含了相当多的字, 用这种方式,可以量测出 两个字彼此之间的关联性程度。
indicative:adj.象征的;指示的;表示…的;n.陈述语气;陈述语气的动词形式;
So for instance , you want the words "dog" and "cat" to be very close together, but the words " grapefruit " and " logarithm " to be very far away. 举个例子, 你会想,「狗」、「猫」应该是比较有关联性的, 但「葡萄柚」和「对数」就没甚么关联了。
instance:n.实例;情况;建议;v.举...为例; grapefruit:n.葡萄柚; logarithm:n.[数]对数;
And this has to be true for any two words within the space. 而在这个空间里的任何两个字,都必须是可以被量测出来的。
And there are different ways that we can construct the space of words. 而我们有很多方式可以建立起这些字的空间架构,
One is just asking the experts, a bit like we do with dictionaries. 方法一,是只要请教专家就行了, 有点类似查字典。
Another possibility is following the simple assumption that when two words are related, they tend to appear in the same sentences, in the same paragraphs, in the same documents, more often than would be expected just by pure chance. 另一个可行的方法是, 当两个字出现关联性时,去追踪它们的预设状况, 它们可能会出现在同一句、 同一段落、 或同一文件中, 多于「偶然」地出现。
assumption:n.假定;设想;担任;采取;
And this simple hypothesis, this simple method,with some computational tricks that have to do with the fact that this is a very complex and high-dimensional space, turns out to be quite effective . 在这个简单的前提下, 这个单纯且带有运算技巧的方法必须好用, 而这个复杂且高维度的空间, 事后证明,相当有效。
computational:adj.计算的; have to do with:与…有关; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; high-dimensional:高维的; effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象;
And just to give you a flavor of how well this works, this is the result we get when we analyze this for some familiar words. 向各位介绍一下,它多有效, 我们分析了一些经常用到的字,
flavor:n.情味,风味;香料;滋味;v.加味于; familiar:adj.熟悉的;常见的;亲近的;n.常客;密友;
And you can see first that words automatically organize into semantic neighborhoods. 首先你可以看到, 这些词彙会自动地归纳成语义相近的相邻群组,
automatically:adv.自动地;机械地;无意识地;adj.不经思索的; organize:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理; semantic:adj.语义的;语义学的(等于semantical);
So you get the fruits, the body parts, the computer parts, the scientific terms and so on. 所以你可看到,水果跟身体部位, 电脑与科学字彙等等。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
The algorithm also identifies that we organize concepts in a hierarchy . 演算法也可以把我们要整理的概念分门别类出来。
identifies:vt.[计]识别,认明;视为相同,鉴定;v.[计]识别,确定(identify的单三形式); hierarchy:n.层级;等级制度;
So for instance, you can see that the scientific terms break down into two subcategories of the astronomic and the physics terms. 举个例子, 你可以看到,科学的字彙被拆解成两个子类, 分别是太空与物理的词彙。
subcategories:n.子分类;子范畴(subcategory的复数); astronomic:adj.天文学的;星学的;
And then there are very fine things. 然后你会发现一件好玩的事,
For instance, the word astronomy , which seems a bit bizarre where it is, is actually exactly where it should be, between what it is, an actual science, and between what it describes , the astronomical terms. 举个例子,「天文学」这个词彙, 它应该摆的位置 与它现在的位置 好像不太搭嘎, 它现在介于真实科学与 天文学之间,偏向科学的位置, 而它自己却是一个天文学的字彙。
astronomy:n.天文学; bizarre:adj.奇异的(指态度,容貌,款式等); describes:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;(describe的第三人称单数) astronomical:adj.天文的,天文学的;极大的;
And we could go on and on with this. 我们可以持续寻找其它类似的情况。
on and on:继续不停地;
Actually, if you stare at this for a while , and you just build random trajectories , you will see that it actually feels a bit like doing poetry . 实际上,如果你盯着这些字一阵子, 然后随机搭配连结一下这些字, 你会觉得好像自己在吟诗。
stare:v.凝视;盯着看;注视;n.凝视; for a while:adv.片刻;暂时;一会儿;一时; random:adj.[数]随机的;任意的;胡乱的;n.随意;adv.胡乱地; trajectories:n.轨迹;轨道线(trajectory的复数形式); poetry:n.诗;诗意,诗情;诗歌艺术;
And this is because, in a way, walking in this space is like walking in the mind. 那是因为,在某种程度上, 在这些空间字彙里漫游,就像是在脑海中吟诗一样。
And the last thing is that this algorithm also identifies what are our intuitions , of which words should lead in the neighborhood of introspection. 最后, 演算法也能辨识出人类的直觉字彙, 并归纳到内省的相邻字彙中。
intuitions:n.直觉;直觉力;直觉的知识; neighborhood:n.附近;地区;街坊;adj.附近的;
So for instance, words such as "self," "guilt," "reason," " emotion ," 举个例子, 像是自我、内疚、理由、情绪
emotion:n.强烈的感情;激情;情感;
are very close to "introspection," 与内省相关的字彙非常接近,
but other words, such as "red," "football," "candle," "banana," 但其它的字, 像是,红色、足球、蜡烛、香蕉
are just very far away. 就差很远了。
And so once we've built the space, the question of the history of introspection, or of the history of any concept which before could seem abstract and somehow vague , becomes concrete -- becomes amenable to quantitative science. 所以一旦我们建立起这样的词彙空间, 有关于内省的历史, 有关与任何概念的历史, 以前被认为是抽象或是有点模糊的字彙, 都可以变成扎扎实实 可以被量化的科学。
abstract:n.摘要; adj.抽象的; vt.摘要; vi.做摘要; somehow:adv.以某种方法;莫名其妙地; vague:adj.模糊的;含糊的;不明确的;暧昧的; concrete:n.混凝土;adj.混凝土制的;确实的,具体的;vt.用混凝土覆盖
All that we have to do is take the books, we digitize them, and we take this stream of words as a trajectory and project them into the space, and then we ask whether this trajectory spends significant time circling closely to the concept of introspection. 而我们要做的就是,拿起这些书, 把它们数位化, 然后把这些字,像子弹一样 射到这些字彙空间里面, 然后我们问电脑,这些字彙所行经的轨迹 花了多少的时间才达到内省概念的字彙中。
digitize:vt.[计]数字化; trajectory:n.[物]轨道,轨线;[航][军]弹道; significant:adj.重大的;有效的;有意义的;值得注意的;意味深长的;n.象征;有意义的事物;
And with this, we could analyze the history of introspection in the ancient Greek tradition, for which we have the best available written record. 有了这些数据, 我们就可以分析古希腊传统中, 有关于内省的历史, 因为有着最完整的文字记录。
So what we did is we took all the books -- we just ordered them by time -- for each book we take the words and we project them to the space, and then we ask for each word how close it is to introspection, and we just average that. 所以,我们先把这些书, 按照时间排列, 然后把这些字 投射到字彙空间里面, 然后我们问电脑,这些字与内省有多少的相关性, 再把它们平均起来。
And then we ask whether, as time goes on and on, these books get closer, and closer and closer to the concept of introspection. 然后,我们不断地问电脑问题, 这些书就会 越来越接近内省的概念。
And this is exactly what happens in the ancient Greek tradition. 而这正是古希腊所发生的事。
So you can see that for the oldest books in the Homeric tradition, there is a small increase with books getting closer to introspection. 各位可以看到在荷马时代最古老的书籍, 与内省的相关性只有一点点。
But about four centuries before Christ , this starts ramping up very rapidly to an almost five-fold increase of books getting closer, and closer and closer to the concept of introspection. 但约在西元前400年左右, 快速成长了五倍, 这些书与内省的概念 越来越接近。
Christ:n.基督;耶稣基督 ramping:v.敲诈;使有斜面;(ramp的现在分词)
And one of the nice things about this is that now we can ask whether this is also true in a different, independent tradition. 最棒的是, 我们可以问电脑, 在不同的、独立的传统文化中,是否也有一样的现象。
independent:adj.独立的; n.无党派议员(或候选人等);
So we just ran this same analysis on the Judeo-Christian tradition, and we got virtually the same pattern. 所以,我们用同样的方法,分析了传统犹太基督教的书籍, 也得到了类似的趋势。
Judeo-Christian:adj.犹太教与基督教所共有的;同是犹太教与基督教的; virtually:adv.事实上,几乎;实质上;
Again, you see a small increase for the oldest books in the Old Testament , and then it increases much more rapidly in the new books of the New Testament . 在最古老的旧约圣经中,你可以看到它缓慢地增加, 之后在新约圣经中,它快速地增长,
Old Testament:n.(圣经)《旧约》; New Testament:n.(圣经)《新约》;
And then we get the peak of introspection in "The Confessions of Saint Augustine,"about four centuries after Christ. 大约西元400年,圣奥古斯丁的《忏悔录》内省达到了最高峰。
peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; Confessions:n.自白,招供;忏悔录(confession的复数形式); Saint:n.圣人;圣徒;道德崇高的人;adj.神圣的;v.成为圣徒;
And this was very important, because Saint Augustine had been recognized by scholars , philologists , historians, as one of the founders of introspection. 这个方法相当重要, 因为圣奥古斯丁已经被多位学者、 心理学家、历史学家公认为 是内省的创始人之一。
recognized:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;(recognize的过去分词和过去式) scholars:n.学者们(scholar的复数); philologists:n.文献学者;语言学者; founders:n.创办人;造物者(founder的复数);
Actually, some believe him to be the father of modern psychology . 有些人认为他是现代心理学之父。
psychology:n.心理学;心理状态;
So our algorithm, which has the virtue of being quantitative, of being objective, and of course of being extremely fast -- it just runs in a fraction of a second -- can capture some of the most important conclusions of this long tradition of investigation. 所以,我们演算法的优点 而且客观、 当然速度也相当快—— 几秒就可以跑完—— 并捕捉到若使用传统方法必须费长时间调查 才能抓到的一些重点。
virtue:n.美德;优点;贞操;功效; extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; fraction:n.分数;小部分;小数;少量; capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获 conclusions:n.结论,总结;决定;(conclusion的复数)
And this is in a way one of the beauties of science, which is that now this idea can be translated and generalized to a whole lot of different domains . 这也是科学美好的地方, 它可以可以解读、归纳这想法, 然后广泛应用在许多不同的领域上。
generalized:adj.广义的,普遍的; v.推广(generalize的过去分词); domains:n.域,域名;领域;网域(domain的复数形式);
So in the same way that we asked about the past of human consciousness, maybe the most challenging question we can pose to ourselves is whether this can tell us something about the future of our own consciousness. 或许,最具挑战性的问题是, 我们用电脑来分析过去的自我意识发展的方法, 是不是亦可以告诉我们自我意识的未来趋向呢？
To put it more precisely, whether the words we say today can tell us something of where our minds will be in a few days, in a few months or a few years from now. 更精确地说, 我们现在说的话, 是否可以告诉我们接下来的几天、几个月或几年后, 我们的心智会达到什样的情况。
And in the same way many of us are now wearing sensors that detect our heart rate, our respiration , our genes , on the hopes that this may help us prevent diseases , 同样的方式,我们现在很多人都使用穿戴式侦测器, 可以侦测我们的心跳、 呼吸、 基因, 让我们可以预防疾病的发生,
sensors:n.[自]传感器,感应器;感测器(sensor的复数); detect:vt.察觉;发现;探测; respiration:n.呼吸;呼吸作用; genes:n.基因;(gene的复数) diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类;
we can ask whether monitoring and analyzing the words we speak, we tweet, we email, we write, can tell us ahead of time whether something may go wrong with our minds. 我们是否已可以藉由侦测分析我们所说的话、 推的文、邮寄的信、写的文字, 来提前告诉我们,我们的心智可能要发生问题了？
analyzing:adj.分析的;v.分析(analyze的现在分词);
And with Guillermo Cecchi,who has been my brother in this adventure , we took on this task. 我跟我的兄弟,吉列尔莫．切基, 扛起了这项任务。
adventure:n.冒险;奇遇;经历;冒险游戏;v.探险;以…冒险;大胆进行;闯;
And we did so by analyzing the recorded speech of 34 young people who were at a high risk of developing schizophrenia . 我们纪录分析了 34 位年轻人的谈话。 他们过去曾经是罹患精神分裂症的高风险族群。
schizophrenia:n.[内科]精神分裂症;
And so what we did is, we measured speech at day one, and then we asked whether the properties of the speech could predict , within a window of almost three years, the future development of psychosis . 我们测量了他们第一天的谈话, 然后问电脑,从他们的话中,是否可以预测出, 未来三年内, 他们会不会精神错乱。
measured:adj.缓慢谨慎的; v.测量; (measure的过去分词和过去式) predict:v.预报;预言;预告; psychosis:n.精神病;精神错乱;
But despite our hopes, we got failure after failure. 但我们大失所望, 一次又一次的失败。
despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱;
There was just not enough information in semantics to predict the future organization of the mind. 因为没有足够的语义资讯 来预测未来的心智发展。
semantics:n.[语]语义学;语义论; organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
It was good enough to distinguish between a group of schizophrenics and a control group, a bit like we had done for the ancient texts, but not to predict the future onset of psychosis. 它在分辨精神病患及控制组上 已经有足够的能力, 因为这有点像我们之前做古文字的分析, 但没办法预测未来精神错乱的发病。
distinguish:vt.区分;辨别;使杰出,使表现突出;vi.区别,区分;辨别; onset:n.开始,着手;发作;攻击,进攻;
But then we realized that maybe the most important thing was not so much what they were saying, but how they were saying it. 后来我们了解到, 也许最重要的关键不是他们说了甚么, 而是他们怎么说。
More specifically , it was not in which semantic neighborhoods the words were, but how far and fast they jumped from one semantic neighborhood to the other one. 更精确地说, 不是他们说的「话」落在哪个语义相近的群组里, 而是他们说话的「方式」 是否会在这几个语义相近的群组里
specifically:adv.特别地;明确地;
And so we came up with this measure, which we termed semantic coherence , which essentially measures the persistence of speech within one semantic topic, within one semantic category . 所以我们想出了一个 叫做「语义连贯性」的量测方法, 本质上就是测量谈话的持续性 是否会落在同一个语义主题或类别上。
coherence:n.一致;连贯性;凝聚; essentially:adv.本质上;本来; persistence:n.持续;固执;存留;坚持不懈;毅力; category:n.种类,分类;[数]范畴;
And it turned out to be that for this group of 34 people, the algorithm based on semantic coherence could predict, with 100 percent accuracy ,who developed psychosis and who will not. 结果显示,刚刚的 34 位年轻人, 透过这个语义连贯性演算法, 预测谁会精神错乱的正确率达到百分之百。
accuracy:n.[数]精确度,准确性;
And this was something that could not be achieved -- not even close --with all the other existing clinical measures. 目前临床上所有测量方式 都无法达到、或接近这个数字。
clinical:adj.临床的;诊所的;
And I remember vividly , while I was working on this, 在我做这项研究的时候,清楚地记得一件事,
vividly:adv.生动地;强烈地;
I was sitting at my computer and I saw a bunch of tweets by Polo -- 当时我坐在电脑前面, 看到之前我回到布宜诺斯艾利斯的第一个学生——
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; tweets:n.啾啾声,小鸟叫声(tweet的复数形式);v.鸣叫(tweet的三单形式);
Polo had been my first student back in Buenos Aires, and at the time he was living in New York. 保罗,传了一堆信息给我, 当时他住在纽约。
And there was something in this tweets -- 我发现讯息不太对劲——
I could not tell exactly what because nothing was said explicitly -- but I got this strong hunch ,this strong intuition, that something was going wrong. 虽然我讲不出个所以然来,因为他写得不清不楚—— 但我有一个强烈的直觉,一定是出事了。
explicitly:adv.明确地;明白地; hunch:n.预感;大块;肉峰;v.耸肩;预感到;弯腰驼背;隆起;
So I picked up the phone, and I called Polo, and in fact he was not feeling well. 所以,我打电话给保罗, 没错,他当时感觉不太舒服。
And this simple fact, that reading in between the lines, 用这样一个单纯的辨认方式, 从他的字里行间,
I could sense, through words, his feelings, was a simple, but very effective way to help. 我可以隐约感受到他的感觉, 并在第一时间有效地幫助他。
What I tell you today is that we're getting close to understanding how we can convert this intuition that we all have,that we all share,into an algorithm. 今天我要告诉各位的是, 我们已经越来越能理解 如何把我们共有的直觉,转换成演算法。
convert:v.转换; n.改变宗教(或信仰、观点)的人;
And in doing so, we may be seeing in the future a very different form of mental health, based on objective, quantitative and automated analysis of the words we write, of the words we say. 经由这样做, 未来我们也许可以看到一种全然不同的心理健康模式, 而且是基于一种客观、量化的方式 来自动分析出我们所写的字、 我们所说的话。
mental:adj.精神的;脑力的;疯的;n.精神病患者; automated:adj.自动化的;v.(使)自动化;(automate的过去式和过去分词)
Gracias. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）