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MarianaMazzucato_2019T-_价格和创新的真实面貌，以及经济的幕后推手_-
Value creation. 创造价值
Wealth creation. 创造财富
Wealth:n.财富;大量;富有;
These are really powerful words. 都是很有份量的词
Maybe you think of finance , you think of innovation , you think of creativity. 也许你联想到金融、创新 或是创意
finance:n.财政,财政学;金融;v.负担经费,供给…经费; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法;
But who are the value creators? 但究竟谁创造了价值？
If we use that word, we must be implying that some people aren't creating value. 说这话的意思就是
implying:v.意味;暗示;隐含;(imply的现在分词)
Who are they? 谁没贡献价值？
The couch potatoes? 整天窝在沙发看电视的人？
couch:n.睡椅,长沙发;床;卧榻;v.蹲伏,埋伏;躺着;
The value extractors ? 萃取价值的人？
extractors:n.[冶][化工]萃取器;提取者;采掘性企业(extractor的复数);
The value destroyers ? 破坏价值的人？
destroyers:n.[船][军]驱逐舰(destroyer复数);
To answer this question, we actually have to have a proper theory of value. 要解答这问题
And I'm here as an economist to break it to you that we've kind of lost our way on this question. 今天我以经济学家的身分 我们迷失在这个问题上了
Now, don't look so surprised. 别这么惊讶
What I mean by that is, we've stopped contesting it. 我的意思是说
We've stopped actually asking really tough questions about what is the difference between value creation and value extraction , productive and unproductive activities. 也不再强硬质疑 创造价值和萃取价值的不同 生产活动和非生产活动的差异
extraction:n.取出;抽出;拔出;抽出物;出身; unproductive:adj.非生产性的;徒劳的;不毛的;不生产的;
Now, let me just give you some context here. 我给各位讲讲背景知识
context:n.环境;上下文;来龙去脉;
2009 was just about a year and a half after one of the biggest financial crises of our time, second only to the 1929 Great Depression , and the CEO of Goldman Sachs said 2009 年当时 才解除不到一年半 仅次于 1929 年的大蕭条 高盛集团执行长声称
financial:adj.金融的;财政的,财务的; crises:n.危机,紧要关头;危险期(crisis的复数形式); Depression:n.沮丧;洼地;不景气;忧愁;
Goldman Sachs workers are the most productive in the world.
Productivity and productiveness , for an economist, actually has a lot to do with value. 经济学家认为生产力高低 实际上和价值有很大关系
Productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力; productiveness:n.生产力;产量;高产;
You're producing stuff , you're producing it dynamically and efficiently . 你生产东西 用的是动态、有效率的方法
stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本: dynamically:adv.动态地;充满活力地;不断变化地; efficiently:adv.有效地;效率高地(efficient的副词形式);
You're also producing things that the world needs, wants and buys. 那些东西也是大家
Now, how this could have been said just one year after the crisis , which actually had this bank as well as many other banks -- 危机才过短短一年半 而且这家银行
crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且;
I'm just kind of picking on Goldman Sachs here -- at the center of the crisis, because they had actually produced some pretty problematic financial products mainly but not only related to mortgages , which saw many thousands of people actually lose their homes. 当然还有其他很多银行 跟金融危机一点也脱不了关系 一些出问题的金融产品 让成千上万人失去房产
problematic:adj.问题的;有疑问的;不确定的; mainly:adv.大多;大部分;主要地;首要地; mortgages:n.抵押贷款; v.[经]抵押(mortgage的三单形式);
In 2010, in just one month, September, 120,000 people lost their homes through the foreclosures of that crisis. 2010 年 9 月,仅仅这一个月内 有 120,000 人因为这次危机
foreclosures:n.取消抵押品赎回权;取消抵押品赎回权的法律手续(foreclosure的复数形式);
Between 2007 and 2010, 8.8 million people lost their jobs. 2007 至 2010 年间 880 万人失業
The bank also had to then be bailed out by the US taxpayer for the sum of 10 billion dollars. 这家银行更是用了 才脱离险境
bailed:v.允许保释;离开;与…搭讪;(bail的过去分词和过去式) taxpayer:n.纳税人;所收租金只够支付地产税的建筑物;
We didn't hear the taxpayers bragging that they were value creators, but obviously, having bailed out one of the biggest value-creating productive companies, perhaps they should have. 纳税人可没自诩他们创造了价值 纳税人应以自己为榮 拯救了这些 创造价值、又有生产力的大公司
taxpayers:n.纳税人(taxpayer的复数); bragging:v.吹嘘;自吹自擂;(brag的现在分词)
What I want to do next is kind of ask ourselves how we lost our way, how it could be, actually, that a statement like that could almost go unnoticed , because it wasn't an after-dinner joke; it was said very seriously. 我接着想问大家 我们如何迷失了方向 我们怎么会对那样的陈述 因为那席话十分认真
statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; unnoticed:adj.被忽视的;不引人注意的;未被注意的; after-dinner:adj.餐后的;晚餐后的;
So what I want to do is bring you back 300 years in economic thinking, when, actually, the term was contested. 我想带大家回顾 当时,光是名称本身就备受争议
economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
It doesn't mean that they were right or wrong, but you couldn't just call yourself a value creator, a wealth creator. 那些公司并无对错 但不能无凭无据
There was a lot of debate within the economics profession . 这个问题也曾激起经济学界热烈讨论
debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; profession:n.行业,职业;业内人士;同行;
And what I want to argue is, we've kind of lost our way, and that has actually allowed this term, "wealth creation" and "value," 我认为我们已经迷失方向了 才让「创造财富」、「价值」这些字
to become quite weak and lazy and also easily captured . 失其份量,得来全不费工夫 可以脱口而出
captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词)
OK? So let's start -- I hate to break it to you -- 300 years ago. 我很不想提起这件事 300 年前
Now, what was interesting 300 years ago is the society was still an agricultural type of society. 300 年前,特别的是 整个社会仍然奉行农業
agricultural:adj.农业的;农艺的;
So it's not surprising that the economists of the time, who were called the Physiocrats, actually put the center of their attention to farm labor. 想当然耳 他们把重心摆在农業劳力
When they said, "Where does value come from?" 当他们问:「价值从何来？」
they looked at farming. 考虑的是农事
And they produced what I think was probably the world's first spreadsheet , called the " Tableau Economique," 魁奈 (Fran?ois Quesnay) 带领其他人 画了可能是史上第一张表格
spreadsheet:n.电子制表软件;电子数据表;试算表; Tableau:n.画面;活人画;戏剧性局面;生动的场面(复数tableaux);
and this was done by Fran?ois Quesnay, one of the leaders of this movement.
And it was very interesting, because they didn't just say, "Farming is the source of value." 有趣的是 他们不只认为「农事创造价值」
source:n.来源;水源;原始资料;
They then really worried about what was happening to that value when it was produced. 还很苦恼这些价值究竟是如何产生的
What the Tableau Economique does -- and I've tried to make it a bit simpler here for you -- is it broke down the classes in society into three. 经济表的功用便是 我会试着不说得那么难 经济表将社会分为三个等第
The farmers, creating value, were called the "productive class." 创造价值的农民
Then others who were just moving some of this value around but it was useful, it was necessary, these were the merchants; they were called the " proprietors ." 其他人便只是四处搬动这些价值 但这种行为很有用且必要 这些人是商人 称作「業主」
proprietors:n.业主;所有者;经营者;
And then there was another class that was simply charging the farmers a fee for an existing asset , the land, and they called them the " sterile class." 还有另一阶级 也就是土地,向农民收钱 称为「不事生产阶级」
asset:n.资产;优点;有用的东西;有利条件;财产;有价值的人或物; sterile:adj.不育的;无菌的;贫瘠的;不毛的;枯燥乏味的;
Now, this is a really heavy-hitting word if you think what it means: that if too much of the resources are going to the landlords , you're actually putting the reproduction potential of the system at risk. 仔细想想的话 如果地主得到太多资源 则事实上整个系统 生生不息的潜力将受到威胁
resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); landlords:[租赁]房东;地主;老板;(酒吧或招待所的)店主(landlord的复数); reproduction:n.繁殖,生殖;复制;复制品; potential:n.潜能;可能性;[电]电势;adj.潜在的;可能的;势的;
And so all these little arrows there were their way of simulating -- again, spreadsheets and simulators , these guys were really using big data -- they were simulating what would actually happen under different scenarios 这些箭号是当时经济学者在模拟 看到空白表格和模型 他们模拟不同情境
simulating:n.模拟;假装; spreadsheets:n.电子表格;电子数据表;试算表;空白表格程序; simulators:n.模拟器;假装者,模拟者; scenarios:n.情节;脚本;情景介绍(scenario的复数);
if the wealth actually wasn't reinvested back into production to make that land more productive and was actually being siphoned out in different ways, or even if the proprietors were getting too much. 如果财富不再投入生产 让土地更有生产力 而是以不同方法分离出去 或如果甚至是業主获利太多
reinvested:vt.再投资于;再授给;vi.再投资; siphoned:n.虹吸管;vi.通过虹吸管;vt.用虹吸管吸出;抽取;
And what later happened in the 1800s, and this was no longer the Agricultural Revolution but the Industrial Revolution , is that the classical economists, 之后 1800 年代 农業革命已不复存在 工業革命取而代之 古典经济学者
Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; classical:adj.古典的;经典的;传统的;第一流的;n.古典音乐;
But it's not surprising that because they were actually living through an industrial era with the rise of machines and factories, they said it was industrial labor. 但他们实际生活在工業化时代 机械、工厂到处林立 他们的答案是工業劳力
era:n.新时期;纪元;年代;新时代;
So they had a labor theory of value. 一点也不足为奇
But again, their focus was reproduction, this real worry of what was happening to the value that was created if it was getting siphoned out. 重点仍是再生产 他们极力想找出 创造价值时会发生什么事
And in "The Wealth of Nations," Adam Smith 在《国富论》提到
Adam Smith had this really great example of the pin factory where he said if you only have one person making every bit of the pin, at most you can make one pin a day. 大头针工厂这个很好的例子 如果要一个人负责全部的步骤 一天最多就产一根大头针
pin:n.大头针;饰针;旗杆;胸针;v.别上;使不能动弹;按住;钳住;
But if you actually invest in factory production and the division of labor, new thinking -- today, we would use the word " organizational innovation" -- then you could increase the productivity and the growth and the wealth of nations. 但如果有资源 这是新的想法 我们现在称之为「组织创新」 这样生产力便会增加 国家也会成长、更加富裕
division:n.师;分配;分开;分歧; organizational:adj.组织的;编制的;
So he showed that 10 specialized workers who had been invested in, in their human capital, could produce 4,800 pins a day, as opposed to just one by an unspecialized worker. 他提到了 10 位专業化的工人 他们的人力资本获得资源 一天可以生产 4,800 根大头针 跟一名工人包揽全部工作的结果迥异
pins:n.插脚,针;精确的综合导航系统; opposed:adj.强烈反对; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的过去分词和过去式) unspecialized:adj.非专门化的;(机体)非特殊化的;无特定功能的;
And he and his fellow classical economists also broke down activities into productive and unproductive ones. Adam Smith 和其他古典经济学家 也把各类活动分为
(Laughter) （笑声）
And the unproductive ones weren't -- 这些非生产活动
I think you're laughing because most of you are on that list, aren't you? 你们在笑是因为自己也上榜了,对吧？
(Laughter) （笑声）
Lawyers! I think he was right about the lawyers. 律师！我想他把律师放上榜是对的
Definitely not the professors, the letters of all kind people. 教授真不该在榜上
Definitely:adv.清楚地,当然;明确地,肯定地;
So lawyers, professors, shopkeepers , musicians. 律师、教授、店主、音乐家
shopkeepers:n.店主,老板;
He obviously hated the opera . 他一定很讨厌听歌剧
opera:n.歌剧;歌剧院;歌剧艺术;歌剧剧本;
He must have seen the worst performance of his life the night before writing this book. 他写这本书前一晚 一定听了最差劲的歌剧
performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演;
There's at least three professions up there that have to do with the opera. 名单中至少有三种职業 跟歌剧有关
professions:n.行业,职业;业内人士;同行;(profession的复数) have to do with:与…有关;
But this wasn't an exercise of saying, "Don't do these things." 但这份名单并非要人们
It was just, "What's going to happen if we actually end up allowing some parts of the economy to get too large without really thinking about how to increase the productivity 而是在说 「如果我们真的让经济的一部份 发展的太壮大
economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
of the source of the value that they thought was key, which was industrial labor. 会发生什么事？」
And again, don't ask yourself is this right or is this wrong, it was just very contested. 不要太斟酌其中的对错 列这份名单本来就很有争议
By making these lists, it actually forced them also to ask interesting questions. 也让他们提出一些很有趣的问题
And their focus, as the focus of the Physiocrats, was, in fact, on these objective conditions of production. 他们和重农主义者其实都想知道 生产的客观条件
objective:n.目标; adj.客观的;
They also looked, for example, at the class struggle . 他们也研究其他事情,像是阶级斗争
class struggle:n.(尤指马克思主义理论描述的)阶级斗争;
Their understanding of wages had to do with the objective, if you want, power relationships, the bargaining power of capital and labor. 他们认定工资 跟这些客观的权力阶级有关系 资方和劳方在工资上讨价还价的能力
wages:n.[劳经]工资; v.开展(运动等)(wage的第三人称单数形式); bargaining power:n.(谈判中一方的)讨价还价的能力;
But again, factories, machines, division of labor, agricultural land and what was happening to it. 工厂、机器、劳力分工 农業用土地,才是重点
So the big revolution that then happened -- and this, by the way , is not often taught in economics classes -- the big revolution that happened with the current system of economic thinking that we have, which is called " neoclassical economics," 重大变革接着发生 顺道一提 现今我们的经济思想 称作新古典经济学派 发生重大变革
by the way:顺便说一下; neoclassical:adj.新古典主义的;
was that the logic completely changed. 改变了整套逻辑思想
logic:n.逻辑;逻辑学;逻辑性;adj.逻辑的;
It changed in two ways. 变动了两个方面
It changed from this focus on objective conditions to subjective ones. 人们开始更关心主观条件 而不是客观条件
subjective:adj.主观的;个人的;自觉的;
Let me explain what I mean by that. 让我解释一下
Objective, in the way I just said. 客观,就像我刚说的
in the way:妨碍;挡道;
Subjective, in the sense that all the attention went to how individuals of different sorts make their decisions. 主观,大家更关注 不同类型的人如何做决定
individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
OK, so workers are maximizing their choices of leisure versus work. 劳工试图在工作 和休闲中找到最大效益
maximizing:n.最大化;达到极大值;v.使…最大化;取…最大值(maximize的ing形式); leisure:n.休闲;闲暇;空闲;adj.闲暇的; versus:prep.对;与...相对;对抗;
Consumers are maximizing their so-called utility , which is a proxy for happiness, and firms are maximizing their profits . 消费者也想得到最多所谓的效用 效用是幸福的代名词 企業也想赚到最多的利益
Consumers:n.消费者;顾客;用户;(consumer的复数) so-called:adj.所谓的;号称的; utility:n.公用事业;实用;实用程序;adj.多用途的;多效用的; proxy:n.代理人;委托书;代用品; profits:n.利润; v.获益; (profit的第三人称单数和复数)
And the idea behind this was that then we can aggregate this up, and we see what that turns into, which are these nice, fancy supply-and-demand curves which produce a price, an equilibrium price. 我们可以累积这些效益 就是背后的机制 是这些完美、花俏的供需曲线 可以计算出一个价格 一个均衡价格
aggregate:vi.集合; vt.集合; n.合计; adj.聚合的; fancy:n.幻想; adj.想象的; v.想象; curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数) equilibrium:n.均衡;平静;保持平衡的能力;
It's an equilibrium price, because we also added to it a lot of Newtonian physics equations where centers of gravity are very much part of the organizing principle . 交叉点是一个均衡价格 重心就是组织原则的一部分
equations:n.方程式;等式;均等;均势(equation的复数形式); organizing:v.组织;安排;处理;分配;管理;(organize的现在分词) principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉;
But the second point here is that that equilibrium price, or prices, reveal value. 第二点是由均衡价格揭示价值
reveal:v.显示;透露;揭露;泄露;n.揭露;暴露;门侧,窗侧;
So the revolution here is a change from objective to subjective, but also the logic is no longer one of what is value, how is it being determined , what is the reproductive potential of the economy, which then leads to a theory of price but rather the reverse : a theory of price and exchange which reveals value. 此（经济理论）变革 不只从客观变为主观观点 逻辑也变为 如何决定价值 经济体系的再生产潜力有多大 （上述不再）决定价格 反而是正好相反: 由价格和交换理论揭示其价值
determined:adj.决定了的:v.决定;(determine的过去分词和过去式) reproductive:adj.生殖的;再生的;复制的; reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的; exchange:n.交换;交流;交易所;兑换;v.交换;交易;兑换; reveals:v.揭示;显示;透露;展示;(reveal的第三人称单数)
Now, this is a huge change. 这是个重大的变化
And it's not just an academic exercise, as fascinating as that might be. 因为这不只跟学术有关
academic:adj.学术的;理论的;学院的;n.大学生,大学教师;学者; fascinating:adj.极有吸引力的;迷人的;v.深深吸引;迷住;(fascinate的现在分词)
It affects how we measure growth. 还会影响我们如何量测发展
It affects how we steer economies to produce more of some activities, less of others, how we also remunerate some activities more than others. 会影响我们如何操纵经济 为何给予某些活动较多酬劳 为何给予某些活动较多酬劳
steer:v.引导;控制;操纵;驾驶(船、汽车等);n.建议;劝告;忠告;阉公牛; economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) remunerate:vt.酬劳;给与报酬;赔偿;
And it also just kind of makes you think, you know, are you happy to get out of bed if you're a value creator or not, and how is the price system itself if you aren't determining that? 还会令你思考 如果你没创造价值的话 是否还愿意起床工作 如果你没参与决定 那么价格体系本身会如何？
determining:v.查明;测定;准确算出;决定;支配;裁决;(determine的现在分词)
I mentioned it affects how we think about output . 我刚刚说了
output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出;
If we only include, for example, in GDP, those activities that have prices, all sorts of really weird things happen. 如果我们只把定了价的行为 举例来说,纳入 GDP 很多奇怪的事会发生
weird:adj.奇怪的;奇异的;离奇的;n.命运;宿命;命运女神;
Feminist economists and environmental economists have actually written about this quite a bit. 女性主义经济学家和环境经济学家 其实发表了很多相关研究
Feminist:n.男女平等主义者;adj.主张男女平等的;
Let me give you some examples. 这边有几个例子
If you marry your babysitter , GDP will go down, so do not do it. 如果你娶了你家的褓姆
babysitter:n.临时照顾幼儿者;
Do not be tempted to do this, OK? 别想着要这么做,好吗？
tempted:adj.想做…的; v.引诱; (tempt的过去分词和过去式)
Because an activity that perhaps was before being paid for is still being done but is no longer paid. 因为之前需要收费的生产活动 （笑声）
(Laughter) （笑声）
If you pollute, GDP goes up. 如果你汙染环境,GDP 会上升
Still don't do it, but if you do it, you'll help the economy. 别汙染
Why? Because we have to actually pay someone to clean it. 为什么？
Now, what's also really interesting is what happened to finance in the financial sector in GDP. 金融体制发生的事情也同样很有趣 计算 GDP 时
This also, by the way, is something I'm always surprised that many economists don't know. 这个体制归类在金融产業 很多经济学家不知道这件事
Up until 1970, most of the financial sector was not even included in GDP. 1970 年以前 大部分金融产業
It was kind of indirectly , perhaps not knowingly , still being seen through the eyes of the Physiocrats as just kind of moving stuff around, not actually producing anything new. 重农主义者间接或不知觉地 看穿这件事 也就是他们所说的移动东西
indirectly:adv.间接地;不诚实;迂回地; knowingly:adv.故意地;机警地,狡黠地;
So only those activities that had an explicit price were included. 所以只将明确标价的活动纳入计算
explicit:adj.明确的;清楚的;直率的;详述的;
For example, if you went to get a mortgage, you were charged a fee. 就像是申请抵押贷款要付手续费
That went into GDP and the national income and product accounting. 会算进 GDP、国民所得、产品会计
But, for example, net interest payments didn't, the difference between what banks were earning in interest if they gave you a loan and what they were paying out for a deposit . 但像是给付的净利息却不会算进去 这个数字是银行贷款给你所赚的利息 和银行付给存款人利息间的差额
payments:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答;(payment的复数) deposit:n.订金; v.放下;
That wasn't being included. 这笔钱没有纳入
And so the people doing the accounting started to look at some data, which started to show that the size of finance and these net interest payments were actually growing substantially . 所以会计相关人员开始研究数据 发现金融制度的规模 还有这些给付的净利息 都大幅的成长
substantially:adv.实质上;大体上;充分地;
And they called this the "banking problem." 他们称这个现象为「银行業问题」
These were some people working inside, actually, the United Nations in a group called the Systems of National [Accounts], SNA. 这些人其实是在 联合国的一个组织工作 叫做国民经济核算体系
United Nations:n.联合国;
They called it the "banking problem," 他们称之为「银行業问题」
like, "Oh my God, this thing is huge, and we're not even including it." 像是说:「天啊, 规模这么大,却没有算进去」
So instead of stopping and actually making that Tableau Economique or asking some of these fundamental questions that also the classicals were asking about what is actually happening, 他们没实际去画经济表 也没问基础的问题 那些是古典派学者想知道的
fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
the division of labor between different types of activities in the economy, they simply gave these net interest payments a name. 经济中不同类型活动间的实际分工 这些人只幫给付的净利息取个名字
So the commercial banks, they called this "financial intermediation ." 各商業银行称这个现象为
commercial:adj.贸易的;商业的;赢利的;以获利为目的的;n.(电台或电视播放的)广告; intermediation:n.调解;
That went into the NIPA accounts. 也纳入了国民帐户
NIPA:n.尼巴酒;尼巴椰子;尼巴叶覆盖的屋顶;
And the investment banks were called the " risk-taking activities," 投资银行得到了
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; risk-taking:n.冒险;承担风险;adj.冒险的;
and that went in. 也纳入其中
In case I haven't explained this properly, that red line is showing how much quicker financial intermediation as a whole was growing compared to the rest of the economy, the blue line, industry. 我怕我没解释清楚 这条红线告诉我们 金融中介跟整个经济体相比 也就是蓝色这条线
as a whole:总的来说; compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词)
And so this was quite extraordinary , because what actually happened, and what we know today, and there's different people writing about this, this data here is from the Bank of England, is that lots of what finance was actually doing from the 1970s and '80s on was basically financing itself: finance financing finance. 这就是不寻常之处 有很多关于这个主题的研究 这是英格兰银行的资料 因为就真实情况和我们所了解 金融体制事实上 从 1970 到 80 年代 其实就是在投资自己 金融業投资金融業
extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
And what I mean by that is finance, insurance and real estate . 我指的是金融、保险还有不动产業
insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的; real estate:n.房地产;不动产;
In fact, in the UK, something like between 10 and 20 percent of finance finds its way into the real economy, into industry, say, into the energy sector, into pharmaceuticals , into the IT sector, but most of it goes back into that acronym , FIRE: finance, insurance and real estate. 其实在英国 真正进入到经济体和产業的资金 大概有百分之十到二十 像是进入能源产業、制药展業 或是资讯科技产業 但大部分还是回流到 简称 FIRE
pharmaceuticals:n.药物(pharmaceutical的复数); acronym:n.首字母缩略词;
It's very conveniently called FIRE. 简称 FIRE
conveniently:adv.便利地;合宜地;
Now, this is interesting because, in fact, it's not to say that finance is good or bad, but the degree to which, by just having to give it a name, because it actually had an income that was being generated , 这很耐人寻味,因为事实上 很难断定资金是好还是坏 只能说 因为实际上创造了收入 仅仅为这现象取了个名称
generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词)
as opposed to pausing and asking, "What is it actually doing?" -- that was a missed opportunity. 而不是质疑 浪费了那次机会
Similarly , in the real economy, in industry itself, what was happening? 同样的在实际的经济产業里发生了什么事？
Similarly:adv.同样地;类似于;
And this real focus on prices and also share prices has created a huge problem of reinvestment , again, this real attention that both the Physiocrats and the classicals had 只专注在价格还有股价 造成再投资这个很大的问题 重农主义者和古典主义者
reinvestment:n.再投资;
to the degree to which the value that was being generated in the economy was in fact being reinvested back in. 经济体里,创造出来的价值 实际上又投资回去
And so what we have today is an ultrafinancialized industrial sector where, increasingly , a share of the profits and the net income are not actually going back into production, 所以今天我们有超金融化的工業产業 其获利或是净利的一部分 没再投入生产
increasingly:adv.越来越多地;渐增地;
into human capital training, into research and development but just being siphoned out in terms of buying back your own shares, which boosts stock options , which is, in fact, the way that many executives are getting paid. 人资训练、研发 只是抽出来买回自己的股份 提高了认股权 其实也付了很多经理的薪水
research and development:n.研究和开发; boosts:增加; stock:n.股票; v.库存; adj.老一套的; options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) executives:n.经理,主管领导,管理人员;领导层;行政部门(executive的复数)
And, you know, some share buybacks is absolutely fine, but this system is completely out of whack . 回购股权没什么大不了 但这系统却很不正常
buybacks:n.回购(buyback的复数); absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; out of whack:不正常;不一致;(美口)紊乱;
These numbers that I'm showing you here show that in the last 10 years, 466 of the S and P 500 companies have spent over four trillion on just buying back their shares. 这些数据告诉我们过去十年 标普 500 公司中 花了超过四兆回购股权
trillion:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿;
And what you see then if you aggregate this up at the macroeconomic level, so if we look at aggregate business investment, which is a percentage of GDP, you also see this falling level of business investment. 如果在总体经济层面 看看企業总投资 也就是 GDP 中的占比 能看到企業投资下降
macroeconomic:adj.宏观经济的,总体经济的;n.整体经济; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成;
And this is a problem. 这就是问题所在
This, by the way, is a huge problem for skills and job creation . 这件事对技术
job creation:n.(尤指为失业者)提供就业机会;
You might have heard there's lots of attention these days to, "Are the robots taking our jobs?" 最近大家可能很常听到 「机器人会抢走我们的工作吗？」
Well, mechanization has for centuries, actually, taken jobs, but as long as profits were being reinvested back into production, then it didn't matter: new jobs appeared. 其实机械化这件事几世纪来 但只要获利重新投资回生产活动 就没什么好担心的
mechanization:n.机械化;机动化; as long as:conj.只要;长达;如果;既然;
But this lack of reinvestment is, in fact, very dangerous. 没有重新投资其实很危险
Similarly, in the pharmaceutical industry, for example, how prices are set, it's quite interesting how it doesn't look at these objective conditions of the collective way in which value is created in the economy. 例如,制药产業价格怎么定 没有考虑整个经济体里 创造价值的客观条件
collective:adj.集体的;共同的;集合的;集体主义的;n.集团;集合体;集合名词;
So in the sector where you have lots of different actors -- public, private, of course, but also third-sector organizations -- creating value, the way we actually measure value in this sector is through the price system itself. 所以那些受多方影响的产業 公部门、私部门 都在创造价值 我们其实是以价格系统 计算这个部门的价值
organizations:n.组织,构造,有机体(organization的复数);组织机构;
Prices reveal value. 价格告诉我们价值
So when, recently , the price of an antibiotic went up by 400 percent overnight , and the CEO was asked, "How can you do this? 所以最近 抗生速价格一夜之间涨了四倍 大家就问这间公司的执行长: 「怎么可以这样？
recently:adv.最近;新近; antibiotic:adj.抗生的;抗菌的;n.抗生素,抗菌素; overnight:adj.夜间的; v.在夜间; n.(美)前一天的晚上;
People actually need that antibiotic. 人们需要抗生素,这样很不公平」
That's unfair." 他回答:「我们有道义责任
He said, "Well, we have a moral imperative to allow prices to go what the market will bear," 他回答:「我们有道义责任 要让价格高到市场所能承受的水平」
moral:n.寓意;品行;教益;adj.道德的;道义上的;道德上的;品行端正的; imperative:adj.重要紧急的; n.重要紧急的事;
completely dismissing the fact that in the US, for example, the National Institutes of Health spent over 30 billion a year on the medical research that actually leads to these drugs. 完全没考虑到一件事 卫生研究院每年花三百亿 在研究这些药品
dismissing:v.不予考虑;摒弃;去除,消除;免职;开除;(dismiss的现在分词) Institutes:n.学院(institute的复数);v.建立(institute的第三人称单数形式);
So, again, a lack of attention to those objective conditions and just allowing the price system itself to reveal the value. 所以忽视客观条件就像是这样 只让价格系统定义价值
Now, this is not just an academic exercise, as interesting as it may be. 这可不只是学界需要关心 虽然很有趣
All this really matters [for] how we measure output, to how we steer the economy, to whether you feel that you're productive, to which sectors we end up helping, supporting and also making people feel proud to be part of. 这一切都会影响我们如何测量产量 还有如何引导经济发展 你是否觉得自己有生产力 或是决定要扶持哪些产業 也要让人民为身在其中感到光榮
sectors:n.部门; v.把…划成扇形;
In fact, going back to that quote , it's not surprising that Blankfein could say that. 我们如果再看一次那句引用来的话 （高盛集团执行长） 布兰克芬那样说并不奇怪
quote:v.引用;报价;举例说明;开价;为(企业的股份)上市;n.引用;
He was right. 他没说错
In the way that we actually measure production, productivity and value in the economy, of course Goldman Sachs workers are the most productive. 他没说错 生产力和价值的方式来看 高盛集团的员工当然最有生产力
They are in fact earning the most. 他们事实上也赚最多钱
The price of their labor is revealing their value. 他们的工资定义了价值
revealing:adj.暴露的;发人深省的;v.揭示;露出;显示;展示;(reveal的现在分词)
But this becomes tautological , of course. 我就不再赘述了
tautological:adj.赘述的;同义反复的;类语叠用的;
And so there's a real need to rethink . 不过我们需要思考
rethink:v.重新考虑;再想;n.重新考虑;反思;新想法;
We need to rethink how we're measuring output, and in fact there's some amazing experiments worldwide . 思考我们测量产量的方式 各国其实持续在做一些很奇妙的实验
worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地;
In New Zealand , for example, they now have a gross national happiness indicator . 像是纽西兰有国民幸福总值
Zealand:西兰岛(丹麦最大的岛) gross:adj.总共的;粗野的;恶劣的;显而易见的;v.总共收入;n.总额,总数; indicator:n.指示器;[试剂]指示剂;[计]指示符;压力计;
In Bhutan, also, they're thinking about happiness and well-being indicators . 不丹也有幸福感指数
well-being:n.幸福;康乐; indicators:n.指示信号;标志;指针;方向灯;(indicator的复数)
But the problem is that we can't just be adding things in. 问题在于我们不能只是把数字加起来
We do have to pause, and I think this should be a moment for pause, given that we see so little has actually changed since the financial crisis, to make sure that we are not also confusing value extraction with value creation, 我们要停下来想一想 现在就是个很好的时机 因为从金融危机以来 我们没做什么改变 这时间也让我们能够分辨 萃取价制和创造价值
confusing:adj.令人困惑; v.使糊涂; (confuse的现在分词)
so looking at what's included, not just adding more, to make sure that we're not, for example, confusing rents with profits. 应该要看看什么包含于其中 确保我们没把
Rents for the classicals was about unearned income. 古典学派视租金为非劳动所得
unearned:adj.不劳而获的;非劳动所得的;不相称的;
Today, rents, when they're talked about in economics, is just an imperfection towards a competitive price that could be competed away if you take away some asymmetries . 现在经济学提到租金 就是竞争价格的小瑕疵 如果移除一些不对称因素
imperfection:n.不完美;瑕疵;缺点; competitive:adj.竞争的;比赛的;求胜心切的; competed:v.竞争,对抗(compete的过去分词); asymmetries:[数]不对称(asymmetry的复数);
Second, we of course can steer activities into what the classicals called the "production boundary ." 再者,我们当然也能引导生产活动
boundary:n.边界;范围;分界线;
This should not be an us-versus-them, big, bad finance versus good, other sectors. 这不该是彼此对立 大规模、不良资金
We could reform finance. 我们能够改良金融体系
reform:v.改革;改进;改良;(使)悔改;n.改革;改良;改善;
There was a real lost opportunity in some ways after the crisis. 金融危机过后,我们错失了良机
We could have had the financial transaction tax, which would have rewarded long-termism over short-termism , but we didn't decide to do that globally. 我们本应该征收金融交易税 鼓励长期投资而不是短期投资 但并非全世界都有这样做
transaction:n.处理;业务;办理; rewarded:v.奖励;奖赏;给以报酬;(reward的过去分词和过去式) short-termism:n.短期主义;
We can. We can change our minds. 我们能够改变思考模式
We can also set up new types of institutions . 我们也能设立新的机构
institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数)
There's different types of, for example, public financial institutions worldwide that are actually providing that patient , long-term , committed finance that helps small firms grow, that help infrastructure and innovation happen. 全世界有很多像是公共财务机构 提供长期、稳定的资金给小型企業 促进基础建设和创新
patient:adj.有耐心的,能容忍的;n.病人;患者; long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; committed:adj.坚信的; v.做出错事; (commit的过去分词和过去式) infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造;
But this shouldn't just be about output. 我们不能只着眼于产量
This shouldn't just be about the rate of output. 或是生产速度
We should also as a society pause and ask: What value are we even creating? 整个社会都应该缓一缓并想一想 我们创造的是什么价值
And I just want to end with the fact that this week we are celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Moon landing. 我最后想跟各位分享 人类登月五十周年
This required the public sector , the private sector , to invest and innovate in all sorts of ways, not just around aeronautics . 这项创举需要公部门、私部门 在各方面投资和创新 不只局限在飞行技术
public sector:n.公营部门;公共部门; private sector:n.(国家经济的)私营部分; innovate:vi.创新;改革;革新;vt.改变;创立;创始;引人; aeronautics:n.航空学;飞行术;
It included investment in areas like nutrition and materials. 还包含要投资营养、材料等领域
nutrition:n.营养,营养学;营养品;
There were lots of actual mistakes that were done along the way. 一路上其实错误百出
In fact, what government did was it used its full power of procurement , for example, to fuel those bottom-up solutions, of which some failed. 事实上政府只是运用他们的采购能力 找出从细节到整体的解决方法 有些失败了
procurement:n.采购;获得,取得; bottom-up:adj.[计]自底向上的;从细节到总体的;
But are failures part of value creation? 但失败是创造价值的一部分吗？
Or are they just mistakes? 或单纯就只是错误？
Or how do we actually also nurture the experimentation , the trial and error and error and error? 还是我们也助长了实验的方法 试验还有很多的错误经验呢？
nurture:v.养育;培养;养护;支持; experimentation:n.实验;试验;
Bell Labs , which was the R and D laboratory of AT and T, actually came from an era where government was quite courageous . 贝尔实验室曾负责 AT&T 的研发工作 当年的政府勇气可嘉
Labs:n.实验室;实验大楼;(lab的复数) laboratory:n.实验室,研究室; courageous:adj.有胆量的,勇敢的;
It actually asked AT and T that in order to maintain its monopoly status , it had to reinvest its profits back into the real economy, innovation and innovation beyond telecoms . 政府那时要求 AT&T 为了保持垄断 必须要把获利 不限于电信领域的创新
maintain:v.维持;保持;维修;保养;坚持(意见); monopoly:n.垄断;垄断者;专卖权; status:n.地位;状态;情形;重要身份; telecoms:n.电信(telecom的复数形式);电信学;
That was the history, the early history of Bell Labs. 这是贝尔实验室的早期历史
So how we can get these new conditions around reinvestment to collectively invest in new types of value directed at some of the biggest challenges of our time, like climate change? 我们要怎么达到新条件以再投资 来一起投资新型的价值 来解决我们这代最大的问题 像是环境变迁？
collectively:adv.共同地,全体地;
This is a key question. 这才是关键问题
But we should also ask ourselves, had there been a net present value calculation or a cost-benefit analysis done about whether or not to even try to go to the Moon and back again in a generation, we probably wouldn't have started. 我们也该问问自己 倘若进行了净现值计算 或做了成本效益分析 以决定是否尝试一次次往返月球 我们可能就不会开始
cost-benefit:adj.成本效益的; analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; whether or not:是否…;
So thank God, because I'm an economist, and I can tell you, value is not just price. 所以感谢老天爷 我是经济学家,所以能告诉你 价值并非只是价格
Thank you. 谢谢
(Applause) （掌声）