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LaurieGarrett_2007U-_关于1918年大流感启示的报告_
So the first question is, why do we need to even worry about a pandemic threat? 第一个问题是我们为什么要 担心疫情的暴发？
pandemic:adj.(疾病等)全国流行的;普遍的;n.流行性疾病;
What is it that we're concerned about? 我们关注的是什么？
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
When I say "we," I'm at the council on foreign relations. 我说“我们”是指我所在的对外关系委员会
council:n.(市、郡等的)政务委员会;市政(或地方管理)服务机构;
We're concerned in the national security community , and of course in the biology community and the public health community. 我们也包括国家安全委员会, 当然还有生物学委员会和公共卫生委员会。
community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学;
While globalization has increased travel, it's made it necessary that everybody be everywhere, all the time, all over the world. 全球化使旅行增加, 因此任何一个人可以在任何时候 到达世界上的任何一个地方,
globalization:n.全球化;
And that means that your microbial hitchhikers are moving with you. 也就是说你所携带的微生物与你一起周游世界。
microbial:adj.微生物的;由细菌引起的; hitchhikers:n.旅行者(hitchhiker的复数形式);
So a plague outbreak in Surat, India becomes not an obscure event, but a globalized event -- a globalized concern that has changed the risk equation . 印度苏拉特瘟疫的暴发 不仅是印度的一场灾难,而且变成了全球的灾难— 全球性的关注改变了风险等级。
plague:n.瘟疫;灾祸;麻烦;讨厌的人;vt.折磨;使苦恼;使得灾祸; outbreak:n.(战争的)爆发;(疾病的)发作;vi.爆发; obscure:n.朦胧; adj.无名的; v.使模糊; globalized:vt.使全球化; equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式;
Katrina showed us that we can not completely depend on government to have readiness in hand, to be capable of handling things. Katrina飓风告诉我们 不能完全依赖政府 有现行的办法应对突发事件,
readiness:n.敏捷,迅速;准备就绪;愿意; capable:adj.能干的,能胜任的;有才华的;
Indeed, an outbreak would be multiple Katrinas at once. 的确,一场疫情的暴发相当于多次Katrinas飓风同时发生。
multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数;
Our big concern at the moment is a virus called H5N1 flu. 目前我们最大的担心是一种叫做H5N1的流感病毒,
Some of you call it bird flu , which first emerged in southern China, in the mid 1990s. 有些人称其为禽流感 最早在20世纪90年代中期出现于中国南方,
bird flu:n.禽流感(鸟类传染病,可感染人类并导致死亡); emerged:v.(从隐蔽处或暗处)出现;暴露;露出真相;显现;(emerge的过去分词和过去式)
But we didn't know about it until 1997. 但直到1997年我们才对它有所认识。
At the end of last Christmas only 13 countries had seen H5N1. 去年圣诞节后期,只有13个国家出现了H5N1病毒,
But we're now up to 55 countries in the world, have had this virus emerge, in either birds, or people, or both. 但是现在多达55个国家都 出现了这种病毒, 在鸟类中、或人类中或鸟类和人类之间发现了这种病毒。
In the bird outbreaks we now can see that pretty much the whole world has seen this virus except the Americas. 通过在鸟类中爆发的禽流感现象,我们可以很清楚地看到 除了美洲, 几乎全世界都暴发了禽流感。
outbreaks:n.(战争的)爆发;(疾病的)发作;vi.爆发;
And I'll get into why we've so far been spared in a moment . 下面我就要讲为什么我们会暂时幸免。
spared:v.抽出;留出;免去;放过;使逃脱(spare的过去分词和过去式) in a moment:立刻;
In domestic birds, especially chickens, it's 100 percent lethal . 在家禽中,特别是鸡类, 禽流感的致死率是100%。
domestic:n.佣人;家佣;家庭纠纷;家庭矛盾;adj.本国的;国内的;家用的;家庭的; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; lethal:adj.致命的,致死的;n.致死因子;
It's one of the most lethal things we've seen in circulation in the world in any recent centuries. 它是近几个世纪以来 我们在世界上见过的 致死性最高的病毒之一。
circulation:n.流通,传播;循环;发行量;
And we've dealt with it by killing off lots and lots and lots of chickens, and unfortunately often not reimbursing the peasant farmers with the result that there's cover-up . 为此,我们宰杀了大量的鸡, 但不幸的是经常不能给予农民足够的补偿, 结果造成农民隐瞒疫情。
unfortunately:adv.不幸地; reimbursing:v.偿还;补偿;(reimburse的现在分词) cover-up:n.掩饰;隐蔽;
It's also carried on migration patterns of wild migratory aquatic birds. 病毒同样 沿着候鸟的迁徙路线而传播。
migration:n.迁移;迁徙;转移;移居; migratory:adj.迁移的;流浪的; aquatic:adj.水生的;水栖的;在水中或水面进行的;n.水上运动;水生植物或动物;
There has been this centralized event in a place called Lake Chenghai, China. 中国有个叫程海湖的地方 就曾经出现了这种病毒的集中暴发。
centralized:adj.集中的;中央集权的;v.集中(centralize的过去分词);
Two years ago the migrating birds had a multiple event where thousands died because of a mutation occurring in the virus, which made the species range broaden dramatically . 两年前,候鸟 发生了一场复杂的事件, 由于病毒发生了变异 数千候鸟死亡, 使得所感染的物种范围急剧扩大。
migrating:v.迁移;迁徙;移居(migrate的现在分词); mutation:n.[遗]突变;变化;元音变化; occurring:n.事件;事故;事变; species:n.[生物]物种;种类; broaden:v.加宽;变宽;(broaden的现在分词) dramatically:adv.戏剧地;引人注目地;adv.显著地,剧烈地;
So that birds going to Siberia , to Europe, and to Africa carried the virus, which had not previously been possible. 这些候鸟再把病毒带到西伯利亚、欧洲和非洲等地, 这种情况在以前是不可能发生的。
Siberia:n.西伯利亚; previously:adv.先前;以前;
We're now seeing outbreaks in human populations. 我们现在看到的就是在人类爆发的禽流感。
So far, fortunately, small events, tiny outbreaks, occasional clusters . 幸运的是,到目前为止,只是小规模的事件, 偶尔有聚集爆发的现象。
occasional:adj.偶然的;临时的;特殊场合的; clusters:n.[植]簇;丛(cluster的复数形式);[计]群集;
The virus has mutated dramatically in the last two years to form two distinct families, if you will, of the H5N1 viral tree with branches in them, and with different attributes that are worrying. 在过去的两年里,病毒已经明显的突变成 两个截然不同的家族, 正如你想的那样 H5N1就是其中的分支之一。 并且H5N1有着让人心神不安的特点。
mutated:突变;变成;经受突变; distinct:adj.明显的;独特的;清楚的;有区别的; viral:adj.滤过性毒菌引起的;滤过性毒菌的; attributes:v.把…归因于; n.属性; (attribute的第三人称单数和复数)
So what's concerning us? Well, first of all , at no time in history have we succeeded in making in a timely fashion, a specific vaccine for more than 260 million people. 那么什么让我们如此焦虑呢？首先, 历史上从来没有人能 为超过2.6亿人成功制备过 适时、特异性的疫苗。
concerning:prep.关于;涉及;v.影响,牵涉(某人);与…有关;涉及;(concern的现在分词) first of all:adv.首先; timely:adj.及时的;适时的;adv.及时地;早; specific:adj.特殊的,特定的;明确的;详细的;[药]具有特效的;n.特性;细节;特效药; vaccine:n.疫苗;牛痘苗;adj.疫苗的;牛痘的;
It's not going to do us very much good in a global pandemic. 疾病全球大流行时,这对我们帮助不大。
You've heard about the vaccine we're stockpiling . 大家可能都听说过,我们正在储备疫苗。
stockpiling:n.积存;v.大量储备;(stockpile的现在分词)
But nobody believes it will actually be particularly effective if we have a real outbreak. 但是疫情一旦爆发了,没人会相信 这种方法真的有效。
particularly:adv.特别地,独特地;详细地,具体地;明确地,细致地; effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象;
So one thought is after 9/11 when the airports closed our flu season was delayed by two weeks. 所以,一种观点认为 911之后,机场被关闭 流感季节往后推迟了两周。
airports:n.[航]机场;[航]航空港(airport的复数形式);
So the thought is, hey maybe what we should do is just immediately -- we hear there is H5N1 spreading from human to human, the virus has mutated to be a human to human transmitter -- let's shut down the airports. 那么有人就认为,我们应该马上关闭机场 因为我们听说H5N1正在人群中传播, 病毒已经突变成了人-人传染。 hey,我们马上关闭机场吧。
transmitter:n.[电讯]发射机,[通信]发报机;传达人;
However, huge supercomputer analyses , done of the likely effectiveness of this, show that it won't buy us much time at all. 然而,超型计算机分析了 这种做法的有效性。 结果表明,这并不能给我们多少喘息之机。
supercomputer:n.[计]巨型计算机,超级计算机; analyses:n.分析;解析;分解;梗概(analysis的复数形式); effectiveness:n.效力;
And of course it will be hugely disruptive in preparation plans. 并且还会给防止病毒的准备计划带来巨大的破坏。
disruptive:adj.破坏的;分裂性的;制造混乱的;
For example, all masks are made in China. 举个例子,所有的口罩都是中国制造的。
How do you get them mobilized around the world if you've shut all the airports down? 如果你把机场关闭了, 你怎么把口罩运输到世界各地？
mobilized:v.组织;动员;调动;调用;(mobilize的过去式和过去分词)
How do you get the vaccines moved around the world and the drugs moved, and whatever may or not be available that would work. 你又怎么把那些疫苗的药品运输到世界的每个角落？ 无论这些是否有用,
vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗;
So it turns out that shutting down the airports is counterproductive . 关闭机场看起来是反其道而行。
counterproductive:adj.反生产的;使达不到预期目标的;
We're worried because this virus, unlike any other flu we've ever studied, can be transmitted by eating raw meat of the infected animals. 我们对此颇为头疼,因为这种病毒和我们以往研究的任何一种流感都不一样, 这种流感能通过食用 被感染动物的生肉而传播。
transmitted:v.传送;输送;发射;播送;传播;传染;(transmit的过去分词和过去式) infected:adj.带菌的; v.传染; (infect的过去分词和过去式)
We've seen transmission to wild cats and domestic cats, and now also domestic pet dogs. 我们已经发现它能传染野猫和家猫, 现在还能传染宠物狗。
transmission:n.传输;传染;播送;发射;广播;传动装置;
And in experimental feedings to rodents and ferrets , we found that the animals exhibit symptoms never seen with flu, seizures , central nervous system disorders , partial paralysis , 我们在啮齿类和鼬类的实验性喂养实验中发现, 这些动物受感染后,表现出前所未有的流感症状--- 癫痫、中央神经系统紊乱以及局部麻痹。
experimental:adj.实验的;根据实验的;试验性的; feedings:n.饲养;吃;输送;adj.供给饲料的;摄取食物的;v.饲养(feed的ing形式); rodents:n.啮齿动物,啮齿类; ferrets:n.雪貂;v.搜索,四处搜寻,翻找(ferret的第三人称单数和复数) exhibit:v.展览;表现;展出;n.陈列品;(在法庭上出示的)物证; symptoms:n.症状;征候;征兆;(symptom的复数) seizures:n.癫痫,痉挛;发作(seizure的复数); central nervous system:n.中枢神经系统; disorders:n.无秩序,混乱; v.[电子]扰乱(disorder的单三形式); partial:adj.部分的;不完整的;片面的;有偏见的; paralysis:n.麻痹;无力;停顿;
This is not your normal garden variety flu. 这并不是那些常见的变化多端的流感。
variety:n.多样;种类;杂耍;变化,多样化;
It mimics what we now understand about reconstructing the 1918 flu virus, the last great pandemic, in that it also jumped directly from birds to people. 通过我们对1918年病毒重塑了解到的, 这种病毒仿佛模拟了上次1918年 流感大流行, 在那次流感大流行中,流感病毒也是从鸟类直接传播到人身上的。
mimics:v.模仿; n.会模仿的人(或动物); (mimic的第三人称单数和复数) reconstructing:v.再现,重建;改造(reconstruct的ing形式); directly:adv.直接地;立即;马上;正好地;坦率地;conj.一…就;
We had evolution over time, and this unbelievable mortality rate in human beings. 随着时间的流逝病毒进化了, 流感对人类的难以置信的病死率也“进化”了。
evolution:n.演变;进化;发展;渐进; unbelievable:adj.(非正式)难以置信的;不可信的 mortality:n.死亡数,死亡率;必死性,必死的命运;
55 percent of people who have become infected with H5N1 have, in fact, succumbed . 事实上,55%感染了H5N1病毒 的人都已经死亡。
succumbed:v.屈服;屈从;抵挡不住(succumb的过去分词和过去式)
And we don't have a huge number of people who got infected and never developed disease . 而且,感染了病毒却没有发病的 不是很多。
disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
In experimental feeding in monkeys you can see that it actually downregulates a specific immune system modulator . 在实验性喂养猴子的实验中 可以得知病毒实际上下调了 一个特异的免疫系统调控子的水平,
immune system:n.免疫系统; modulator:n.[电子]调幅器,[电子][通信]调制器;调节人;
The result is that what kills you, is not the virus directly, but your own immune system overreacting , saying, "Whatever this is is so foreign, I'm going berserk ." 所以,至你于死地的 不是病毒,而是你的免疫系统的过度反应, 也就是说:无论这种物质是不是异己,我都将其彻底铲除。
overreacting:v.反应过激,反应过火(overreact的现在分词) berserk:adj.狂怒的;adv.狂暴地,狂怒地;
The result, most of the deaths have been in people under 30 years of age, robustly healthy young adults. 结果就是,大部分的死者 是30岁以下的 健康的青壮年。
robustly:adv.要用体力地;粗鲁地;坚定地;
We have seen human to human transmission in at least three clusters -- fortunately involving very intimate contact , still not putting the world at large at any kind of risk. 大家已经知道人-人传染 至少要三种方式。 幸运的是,这都涉及到近距离的接触 这还没有把世界置于更大的危险之中。
involving:v.包含;需要;牵涉;牵连;影响;(使)参加;(involve的现在分词) intimate:n.知己; v.暗示; adj.亲密的; contact:n.接触,联系;v.使接触,联系;
Alright, so I've got you nervous. 我让你们紧张了吗？
Now you probably assume , well the governments are going to do something. 现在你可以假设,政府要做点什么了吧。
assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现;
And we have spent a lot of money. 我们已经花了很多钱。
Most of the spending in the Bush administration has actually been more related to the anthrax results and bio-terrorism threat. 实际上,布什政府的钱大部分 都花在了应对炭疽 和生物恐怖袭击上面了。
Bush:n.灌木; v.以灌木装饰; adj.如灌木般长得低矮的; anthrax:n.炭疽,炭疽热; bio-terrorism:生物恐怖袭击;
And a lot of money has been thrown out at the local level and at the federal level to look at infectious diseases . 而且还有很多钱扔到了地方政府及联邦政府 对传染病的研究上。
federal:adj.联邦的;同盟的;联邦政府的;联邦制的;adv.联邦政府地; infectious:adj.传染的;传染性的;易传染的; diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类;
End result , only 15 states have been certified to be able to do mass distribution of vaccine and drugs in a pandemic. 最终结果就是,疫情发生时只有15个州 有资质进行 疫苗和药品的分发。
End result:n.最终结果; certified:adj.被证明了的; v.(尤指书面)证明,证实; (certify的过去式和过去分词) mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
Half the states would run out of hospital beds in the first week, maybe two weeks. 一半的州在一两周之内 就会没有床位了。
run out of:用完;
And 40 states already have an acute nursing shortage . 40个州已经面临严重的护理人员短缺的局面,
acute:adj.严重的,[医]急性的;敏锐的;激烈的;尖声的; shortage:n.短缺;不足;缺少;
Add on pandemic threat, you're in big trouble. 一旦疫情爆发,麻烦就大了。
So what have people been doing with this money? 那么,人们在拿这些钱干嘛呢？
Exercises, drills, all over the world. 全世界范围内的演习和训练。
Let's pretend there's a pandemic. 让我们假设疫情爆发了。
Let's everybody run around and play your role. 所有人都要行动起来发挥作用。
run around:n.遁词;借口;
Main result is that there is tremendous confusion . 主要结果是出现了非常混乱的局面。
tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; confusion:n.困惑;混淆;混同;困窘;
Most of these people don't actually know what their job will be. 这些人中大多数并不真正了解他们的工作是什么。
And the bottom line , major thing that has come through in every single drill, nobody knows who's in charge. 甚至于每次演习都出现的重要问题是, 没人知道总指挥是谁。
the bottom line:底线;本质内容;最底线;
Nobody knows the chain of command. 没人知道命令下达的途径。
If it were Los Angeles, is it the mayor , the governor, the President of the United States, the head of Homeland Security ? 如果洛杉矶爆发疫情,市长,州长, 美国总统,还是国土安全部部长是总指挥呢？
mayor:n.市长;镇长; United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) Homeland Security:n.国土安全(美国防止恐怖袭击的行动及机构);
In fact, the federal government says it's a guy called the Principle Federal Officer, who happens to be with TSA. 事实上,联邦政府说是一个叫做 首席联邦官员的家伙 而他刚好在美国运输安全局
Principle:n.原理,原则;主义,道义;本质,本义;根源,源泉;
The government says the federal responsibility will basically be about trying to keep the virus out, which we all know is impossible, and then to mitigate the impact primarily on our economy . 联邦政府说 他的职责基本上就是 努力把病毒阻隔在国外,我们都知道这是不可能的。 然后是主要减轻疫情 对经济的影响。
basically:adv.主要地,基本上; mitigate:vt.使缓和,使减轻;vi.减轻,缓和下来; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; primarily:adv.首先;主要地,根本上; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
The rest is up to your local community. 剩下的就是地方上的事了。
Everything is about your town, where you live. 所有的事都取决于你所居住的郡。
Well how good is the city council you have? 那么你们的市议会做得怎么样呢？
How good a mayor you have, that's who's going to be in charge. 你们的将要担负重任的市长做得怎么样呢？
Most local facilities would all be competing to try and get their hands on their piece of the federal stockpile of a drug called Tamiflu, which may or may not be helpful -- I'll get into that -- of available vaccines, and any other treatments , and masks, and anything that's been stockpiled . 大部分的地方机构都将竞相 争取分一杯羹 得到联邦储备的一种叫做达菲的药品 这种药可能有用也可能没用（接下来我会讲到） 还有任何其他治疗方法 还有口罩,储备的所有物资。
facilities:n.设施;设备;特别装置;特色;场所;(facility的复数) competing:adj.相互冲突的;相互矛盾的;v.竞争;对抗;参加比赛;(compete的现在分词) treatments:n.治疗;疗法;对待;处理;讨论;(treatment的复数) stockpiled:n.库存;积蓄;vt.贮存;储蓄;vi.积累;储备物资;
And you'll have massive competition . 竞争将是激烈的。
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的; competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛;
Now we did purchase a vaccine, you've probably all heard about it, made by Sanofi-Aventis. 现在我们的确买到了一种疫苗,你们可能都听说过, 由赛诺菲安万特公司制造的。
purchase:n.购买;采购;购买的东西;购买项目;v.购买;采购;
Unfortunately it's made against the current form of H5N1. 不幸的是,它仅仅针对目前流行的H5N1病毒株。
We know the virus will mutate. It will be a different virus. 我们知道病毒是会变异的。它会成为一种新的病毒。
The vaccine will probably be useless. 疫苗很可能就失去作用了。
So here's where the decisions come in. 这就引出了我们下面的结论。
You're the mayor of your local town. 如果你是你们当地那个镇的镇长。
Let's see, should we order that all pets be kept indoors ? 我们应该下令让人们把宠物都圈在家里吗？
indoors:adv.在室内,在户内;
Germany did that when H5N1 appeared in Germany last year, in order to minimize the spread between households , by household cats, dogs and so on. 去年德国出现H5N1的时候德国人这样做过, 以尽可能减少 由家养的宠物猫宠物狗等引发的家庭间传播。
minimize:v.使减少到最低限度;降低;贬低;使显得不重要; households:n.家庭;拆迁户;家户(household的复数);
What do we do when we don't have any containment rooms with reverse air, that will allow the healthcare workers to take care of patients ? 在没有任何层流室 可以让医务人员 照顾病人的情况下,我们该怎么办呢？
containment:n.包含;牵制;容量;密闭度;抑制,牵制;牵制[遏制]政策; reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的; healthcare:n.医疗保健;健康护理,健康服务;卫生保健; patients:n.接受治疗者,病人;(patient的复数)
These are in Hong Kong. We have nothing like that here. 香港有。我们这里没有任何类似的设施。
What about quarantine ? 隔离如何呢？
quarantine:vt.检疫;隔离;使隔离;n.检疫;隔离;检疫期;封锁;vi.实行隔离;
During the SARS epidemic in Beijing quarantine did seem to help. 北京SARS流行期间,隔离似乎的确有用。
epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的;
We have no uniform policies regarding quarantine across the United States. 我们整个美国都没有 相同的关于隔离的政策。
uniform:adj.统一的;一致的;相同的;始终如一的;n.制服;v.使穿制服;使成一样; policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数) regarding:prep.关于;至于;v.将…认为;把…视为;看待;(regard的现在分词)
And some states have differential policies, county by county. 在一些州里不同的郡有不同的政策。
differential:adj.微分的;差别的;特异的;n.微分;差别; county:n.郡,县;
But what about the no-brainer things? Should we close all the schools? 但是那些傻瓜会怎么做呢？难道我们应该关闭所有的学校吗？
no-brainer:不需对其动脑筋的事物;
Well then what about all the workers? They won't go to work if their kids aren't in school. 所有的上班族怎么办呢？他们不会去上班的, 如果他们的孩子不上学的话。
Encouraging telecommuting ? What works? 鼓励远程办公吗？什么才有用呢？
telecommuting:n.远程办公;远程交换;
Well the British government did a model of telecommuting. 英国政府设计了一个远程办公模式。
Six weeks they had all the people in the banking industry pretend a pandemic was underway . 六周的时间里,他们让银行业所有从业人员 假装处在疫情流行的状态中。
underway:adj.进行中的;起步的;航行中的;n.[公路]水底通道;
What they found was the core functions, you know you still sort of had banks, but you couldn't get people to put money in the ATM machines. 他们发现那些核心功能, 你知道在一定程度上银行业务仍在运转。 但你不能让人把钱放进ATM机里。
core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核;
Nobody was processing the credit cards. 没人处理信用卡业务。
processing:v.加工;处理;审核;数据处理;v.列队行进;缓缓前进;(process的现在分词)
Your insurance payments didn't go through. 没人处理保险业务。
insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的; payments:n.付款;支付;收款;款项;报答;(payment的复数)
And basically the economy would be in a disaster state of affairs. 经济基本处于灾难性的状态中。
disaster:n.灾难,灾祸;不幸;
And that's just office workers, bankers. 那还只是上班族,银行家。
We don't know how important hand washing is for flu -- shocking. One assumes it's a good idea to wash your hands a lot. 我们不知道对于流感来说洗手有多重要—— 震惊吧。有人认为经常洗手是个好主意。
assumes:v.假定;采用;承担;呈;(assumes是assume的第三人称单数)
But actually in scientific community there is great debate about what percentage of flu transmission between people is from sneezing and coughing and what percentage is on your hands. 但是实际上,科学界有个大讨论, 是关于流感人际传播有多大比例 是通过打喷嚏和咳嗽, 多大比例是通过手的接触。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; debate:n.辩论;争论;考虑;v.辩论;争论;考虑; percentage:n.百分比;百分率;利润的分成;提成; sneezing:n.打喷嚏;v.打喷嚏(sneeze的ing形式);
The Institute of Medicine tried to look at the masking question. 医学研究所试图研究口罩的问题。
Institute:v.开始(调查);制定;创立;提起(诉讼);n.学会,协会;学院;
Can we figure out a way, since we know we won't have enough masks because we don't make them in America anymore. 既然我们知道口罩不够用,我们能找到一种解决办法吗？ 因为美国不再生产口罩了,
They're all made in China. 所有的都是中国生产的。
Do we need N95? A state-of-the-art , top-of-the-line , must-be-fitted-to-your-face mask? 我们需要N95吗？一种“技术先进、领先水平、 契合脸部轮廓”的口罩？
state-of-the-art:adj.最先进的;已经发展的;达到最高水准的; top-of-the-line:adj.[主美国英语](同类商品中)最好的,顶极的;最豪华的;
Or can we get away with some different kinds of masks? 或者我们能用别的种类的口罩代替吗？
get away with:侥幸成功,侥幸逃脱;
In the SARS epidemic, we learned in Hong Kong that most of transmission was because people were removing their masks improperly . 在SARS流行期间,我们知道在香港 大部分传播是因为 人们摘口罩时不正确的方法。
improperly:adv.不适当地;错误地;
And their hand got contaminated with the outside of the mask, and then they rubbed their nose. Bingo ! They got SARS. 他们的手被口罩外侧污染了, 然后就去用手擦鼻子。中招了！他们得了SARS。
contaminated:v.污染;玷污,毒害(人的思想或品德);(contaminate的过去分词和过去式) rubbed:v.(使)相互摩擦;摩擦(尤指引起疼痛或损害);(rub的过去分词和过去式) Bingo:int.答对了;n.宾戈游戏;
It wasn't flying microbes . 并不是由于飞沫传播。
microbes:n.细菌,[微]微生物;微生物类(microbe的复数形式);
If you go online right now you'll get so much phony baloney information. 如果你现在上网,你能找到那么多的虚假信息。
phony:adj.伪造的;虚伪的;做作的;n.赝品;骗人的东西;骗子; baloney:n.胡扯;熏肠;蠢货;int.荒谬(表示怀疑的感叹词);vt.对…胡扯;
You'll end up buying -- this is called an N95 mask. Ridiculous . 最后你就会买这种所谓的N95口罩。可笑。
Ridiculous:adj.可笑的;荒谬的;
We don't actually have a standard for what should be the protective gear for the first responders , the people who will actually be there on the front lines. 实际上我们都没有一个 防护装备标准给第一批疫情响应者参考, 而他们将是抗击疫情的一线人员。
standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的; protective:adj.防护的;关切保护的;保护贸易的; gear:n.齿轮; v.适合; responders:n.响应器;回答者;(responder的复数)
And Tamiflu. You've probably heard of this drug, made by Hoffmann - La Roche , patented drug. 接下来是达菲。你们很可能已经听说过这种药品, 由Hoffmann-La Roche研制的专利药品。
Roche:n.瑞士罗氏(制药企业); patented:adj.专利的;
There is some indication that it may buy you some time in the midst of an outbreak. 有迹象表明, 在流行病爆发时它可以给你一些喘息之机。
indication:n.显示;表明;标示;象征; midst:n.当中,中间;prep.在…中间(等于amidst);
Should you take Tamiflu for a long period of time, well, one of the side-effects is suicidal ideations . 你应该长期服用这种达菲吗？ 其实,达菲的其中一个副作用是引发自杀念头。
side-effects:副作用;附带后果; suicidal:adj.自杀的,自杀性的;自我毁灭的;自取灭亡的; ideations:n.构思能力,思维能力;构思过程;
A public health survey analyzed the effect that large-scale Tamiflu use would have, actually shows it counteractive to public health measures, making matters worse. 一个公共卫生调查分析认为 大规模使用达菲 实际上将对 公共卫生措施起反作用,使事态恶化。
survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览;vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰;vi.测量土地; analyzed:v.分析(analyze的过去式和过去分词);检讨; large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的;
And here is the other interesting thing: when a human being ingests Tamiflu, only 20 percent is metabolized appropriately to be an active compound in the human being. 另一个有意思的事情是: 当一个人服用达菲后,只有其中20% 通过新陈代谢适当转化 为人体的活性化合物。
ingests:vt.摄取;咽下;吸收;接待; metabolized:vt.使新陈代谢;使变形;vi.新陈代谢; appropriately:adj.适当地;合适地;相称地; compound:v.合成; adj.混合; n.大院;
The rest turns into a stable compound, which survives filtration into the water systems, thereby exposing the very aquatic birds that would carry flu and providing them a chance to breed resistant strains . 其余的转变为稳定化合物, 在过滤中幸存下来并进入到水系中, 从而使他们暴露给那些能够携带流感病毒的水鸟 给它们以 产生耐药株的可能。
stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; filtration:n.过滤;筛选; thereby:adv.从而,因此;在那附近;在那方面; exposing:v.暴露;显露;揭露;揭穿;使面临;(expose的现在分词) breed:v.繁殖;孕育;培育(动植物);导致;以…方式教育;n.品种; resistant:adj.抵抗的,反抗的;顽固的;n.抵抗者; strains:n.[微]菌株(strain复数); v.[力]拉紧;
And we now have seen Tamiflu resistant strains in both Vietnam, in person to person transmission, and in Egypt in person to person transmission. 现在我们已经在 越南人际传播 和埃及人际传播的疫情中发现了达菲耐药株。
So I personally think that our life expectancy for Tamiflu as an effective drug is very limited -- very limited indeed. 所以我个人认为将达菲视为 一种特效药 是非常有限的——的确非常有限。
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言; life expectancy:预期寿命; limited:adj.有限的; n.高级快车; v.限制; (limit的过去分词和过去式)
Nevertheless most of the governments have based their whole flu policies on building stockpiles of Tamiflu. 尽管如此,大部分政府 还是将它们的全部流感对策 建立在储备达菲上。
Nevertheless:adv.然而,不过;虽然如此;conj.然而,不过; stockpiles:v.储备;储存(stockpile的三单形式);n.库存(stockpile的复数);
Russia has actually stockpiled enough for 95 percent of all Russians. 俄罗斯实际上已经储备了足够 95%的俄国人使用的达菲。
We've stockpiled enough for 30 percent. 我们已经储备了足够30%的人使用的达菲。
When I say enough, that's two weeks worth. 我说够用,是指够两个星期用。
And then you're on your own because the pandemic is going to last for 18 to 24 months. 之后就只能听天由命了,因为 疫情将持续18-24个月。
Some of the poorer countries that have had the most experience with H5N1 have built up stockpiles, they're already expired . They are already out of date . 一些比较穷的 饱受禽流感冲击的国家建立起储备后, 达菲也已经失效了。它们已经过期了。
expired:adj.过期的;v.失效,期满,去世(expire的过去分词和过去式) out of date:adj.过时的;
What do we know from 1918, the last great pandemic? 从1918年 上一次大规模的疫情中我们能知道什么呢？
The federal government abdicated most responsibility. 联邦政府放弃了大部分职责。
abdicated:vi.退位;放弃;vt.退位;放弃;
And so we ended up with this wild patchwork of regulations all over America. 结果留下了一个支离破碎的混乱的管理局面 在整个美国。
patchwork:n.拼缝物,拼缀物;混杂物; regulations:n.章程;规则;法规;管理,控制;(regulation的复数)
Every city, county, state did their own thing. 每个城市,每个郡,每个州都在各行其是。
And the rules and the belief systems were wildly disparate . 规则 和想法大相径庭。
wildly:adv.野生地;野蛮地;狂暴地;鲁莽地; disparate:adj.不同的;不相干的;全异的;n.无法相比的东西;
In some cases all schools, all churches, all public venues were closed. 在有些案例中所有的学校,教堂, 和公共集会场所都被关闭了。
venues:n.场地,场馆(venue复数形式);犯罪现场,发生地点;
The pandemic circulated three times in 18 months in the absence of commercial air travel. 18个月的时间里疫情反复了三次, 即使当时并没有商业航空旅行。
circulated:v.(液体或气体)环流,循环;传播;流传;散布;(circulate的过去式和过去分词) in the absence of:缺乏,不存在;无…时,缺少…时; commercial:adj.贸易的;商业的;赢利的;以获利为目的的;n.(电台或电视播放的)广告;
The second wave was the mutated super killer wave. 第二波变异株极具杀伤力。
And in the first wave we had enough healthcare workers. 第一波时我们还有足够的医护人员。
But by the time the second wave hit it took such a toll among the healthcare workers that we lost most of our doctors and nurses that were on the front lines. 但是第二波袭来时, 医护人员损失惨重, 我们失去了抗击疫情前线的大部分的医生和护士。
Overall we lost 700 thousand people. 死亡人数总计70万人。
Overall:v.全部; n.外套; adj.全面的;
The virus was 100 percent lethal to pregnant women. 对孕妇来说,这种病毒是100%致命的。
pregnant:adj.怀孕的;富有意义的;
And we don't actually know why. 而且我们不是很清楚原因。
Most of the death toll was 15 to 40 year olds -- robustly healthy young adults. 大多数的死亡案例介于15-40岁之间—— 健康的青壮年。
death toll:n.(事故、战争、灾难等的)死亡人数;
It was likened to the plague. 就像瘟疫一样。
likened:vt.比拟;把…比作;
We don't actually know how many people died. 实际死亡人数我们不是很清楚。
The low-ball estimate is 35 million. 保守估计是三千五百万。
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本;
This was based on European and North-American data. 这个数字是根据欧洲和北美洲的数据统计的。
A new study by Chris Murray at Harvard shows that if you look at the databases that were kept by the Brits in India, there was a 31 fold greater death rate among the Indians. 哈佛大学的Chris Murray的一项最新研究 表明,如果你看看在印度 由英国人维护的数据库的话, 就会发现印度人的死亡率是平均水平的31倍。
Harvard:n.哈佛大学;哈佛大学学生; Brits:n.英国人(Brit的复数);布里茨(男子名); fold:v.折叠;包;可叠平(以便贮存或携带);裹;n.褶;褶层;折叠部分;褶痕; death rate:n.死亡率;
So there is a strong belief that in places of poverty the death toll was far higher. 所以,一个坚定地信念是在贫穷地区 死亡人数更高。
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
And that a more likely toll is somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million people before we had commercial air travel. 死亡人数更可能是 大约八千万到一亿, 在我们开通商业航空旅行前。
neighborhood:n.附近;地区;街坊;adj.附近的;
So are we ready? 那么,我们准备好了吗？
As a nation, no we're not. 作为一个国家来说,我们还没有。
And I think even those in the leadership would say that is the case, that we still have a long ways to go. 我确定即使是那些领导人 也会说事实上 我们还差得很远。
So what does that mean for you? Well the first thing is, 那么,这对你来说意味着什么呢？第一件事就是,
I wouldn't start building up personal stockpiles of anything, for yourself, your family, or your employees, unless you've really done your homework. 别为你自己、 你的家人或者你的员工建立任何个人储备, 除非你真的做足了功课。
What mask works? What mask doesn't work. 什么口罩有用？什么口罩没用？
How many masks do you need? 你需要多少口罩呢？
The Institute of Medicine study felt that you could not recycle masks. 医学研究所研究认为 口罩不能反复使用。
recycle:v.回收利用;再利用;
Well if you think it's going to last 18 months, 那么,如果你觉得疫情将持续18个月的话,
Are you going to buy 18 months worth of masks for every single person in your family? 你会为你家里的每个人 买足够18个月使用的口罩吗？
We don't know, again with Tamiflu, the number one side effect of Tamiflu is flu-like symptoms. 关于达菲,我们仍不知道 其主要的副作用是 流感样症状。
side effect:n.副作用;附带后果; flu-like:类似感冒的;
So then how can you tell who in your family has the flu if everybody is taking Tamiflu? 那么,你怎样才能分辨 谁得了流感呢 如果家里人都服用达菲的话？
If you expand that out to think of a whole community, or all your employees in your company you begin to realize how limited the Tamiflu option might be. 如果扩大到整个社区, 或者你公司的所有员工的话, 你就会开始意识到 选择达菲其作用可能将多么有限。
expand:v.扩张;使膨胀;详述;发展;张开,展开; option:n.选择;可选择的东西;
Everybody has come up to me and said, well I'll stockpile water or, I'll stockpile food or what have you. 所有人都来跟我讲, 我要储备水,或者我要储备食物,或者你储备了什么。
come up to:v.达到;等于;
But really? Do you really have a place to stockpile 18 months worth of food? 24 months worth of food? 但是真的吗？你真的有地方 储备18个月的食物吗？24个月的食物吗？
Do you want to view the pandemic threat they way back in the 1950s people viewed the civil defense issue , and build your own little bomb shelter for pandemic flu? 你要像 过去20世纪50年代冷战时期 的人们看待民防设施那样, 建立你自己的小小防空洞来对付流感疫情吗？
civil:adj.公民的;民间的;文职的;有礼貌的;根据民法的; issue:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;发行;
I don't think that's rational . 我认为那是不理智的。
rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的;
I think it's about having to be prepared as communities , not as individuals , being prepared as nation, being prepared as state, being prepared as town. 我觉得必须是以社区做准备, 不是以个人, 要以国家做准备, 以州来做准备,以城镇做准备。
communities:n.社区;社会;团体;共有(community的复数) individuals:n.[经]个人;[生物]个体(individual的复数);
And right now most of the preparedness is deeply flawed . 就目前来说,大部分准备工作 都存在严重缺陷。
preparedness:n.有准备;已准备;做好准备(尤指作战准备); flawed:adj.有缺陷的;有瑕疵的;有裂纹的;
And I hope I've convinced you of that, which means that the real job is go out and say to your local leaders, and your national leaders, "Why haven't you solved these problems? 我希望我已经说服了你们, 真正的工作是 去跟你们的地方长官, 你们的国家领导人说, “为什么你还没解决这些问题？
convinced:adj.坚信; v.使确信; (convince的过去分词和过去式)
Why are you still thinking that the lessons of Katrina do not apply to flu?" 为什么你们仍然认为 卡特里娜飓风的教训不会在流感疫情中重演？”
apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
And put the pressure where the pressure needs to be put. 把压力施加在需要施压的地方。
But I guess the other thing to add is if you do have employees, and you do have a company, 但是我猜另一个需要补充的是, 如果你真的有雇员,真的有一个公司,
I think you have certain responsibilities to demonstrate that you are thinking ahead for them, and you are trying to plan. 我觉得你有责任 去证明你在为他们早做打算, 你在努力安排。
demonstrate:vt.证明;展示;论证;vi.示威;
At a minimum the British banking plan showed that telecommuting can be helpful. 英国的银行模式至少表明 远程办公可能有用。
minimum:n.最低限度;最小值;最少量;极小量;adj.最低的;最小的;最低限度的;
It probably does reduce exposure because people are not coming into the office and coughing on each other, or touching common objects, and sharing things via their hands. 可能它真的减少了暴露, 因为人们不再进到办公室里对着彼此咳嗽, 或者接触公共物品, 经由他们的手共用物品。
exposure:n.暴露;显露;揭露;面临; via:prep.通过;经由;n.道路;[医]管道;
But can you sustain your company that way? 但是你能那样维持你的公司吗？
sustain:v.支持;支撑;遭受;证实;
If you have a dot com, maybe you can. 如果你有一个网站的话,也许你可以。
Otherwise you're in trouble. 否则你就麻烦了。
Happy to take your questions. 很高兴回答你们的问题。
(Applause) （掌声）
Audience: What factors determine the duration of a pandemic? 观众:决定疫情持续时间长短的因素是什么呢？
factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; determine:v.决定;确定;测定;查明;形成;影响;裁决;安排; duration:n.持续时间;期间;
Laurie Garret : What factors determine the duration of a pandemic, we don't really know. Laurie Garret:我们不是很清楚决定疫情持续时间长短的因素是什么。
Garret:n.阁楼;顶楼;
I could give you a bunch of flip , this, that, and the other. 我可以给你一堆草率的说法,这个,那个,还有别的。
a bunch of:一群;一束;一堆; flip:n.浏览;空翻;轻抛;捻掷;v.迅速翻动;按(开关);按(按钮);开(或关)(机器等);
But I would say that honestly we don't know. 但是我可以坦率地说我们真的不知道。
Clearly the bottom line is the virus eventually attenuates , and ceases to be a lethal virus to humanity , and finds other hosts . 显然至少 病毒的毒性最终会减弱, 对人类不再是致命的病毒, 然后找到其他宿主。
eventually:adv.最后,终于; attenuates:v.减弱; adj.稀薄的; (attenuate的第三人称单数); ceases:n.停止(cease的复数形式);v.停止(cease的第三人称单数);终了; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; hosts:n.主人; v.主办,主持(活动); (host的第三人称单数和复数)
But we don't really know how and why that happens. 但我们并不十分清楚这些是如何发生的,为什么发生。
It's a very complicated ecology. 真是个很复杂的生态学问题。
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
Audience: What kind of triggers are you looking for? 观众:你在寻找什么样的起因呢？
triggers:n.[电子]触发器;触发物(trigger的复数);v.引起(trigger的单三形式);引爆;
You know way more than any of us. 你知道的比我们这里任何一个人都多。
To say ahh, if this happens then we are going to have a pandemic? 可以说,如果这个起因发生了,流行病就将发生。
LG: The moment that you see any evidence of serious human to human to transmission. LG:当你发现任何 人际传播的证据时。
evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
Not just intimately between family members who took care of an ailing sister or brother, but a community infected -- spread within a school, spread within a dormitory , something of that nature. 不仅是亲密的 照顾生病的兄弟姐妹的家庭成员之间, 而是一个社区被传染 在一个学校里传播, 在一个集体宿舍区里传播,有那种特征的事件。
intimately:adv.熟悉地;亲切地;私下地; ailing:adj.生病的,身体不舒服的;体衰的;v.生病;苦恼(ail的现在分词); dormitory:n.宿舍,学生宿舍;adj.住宅区的;
Then I think that there is universal agreement now at WHO all the way down. 我觉得然后就由WHO 从上而下形成普遍共识,
universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的;
Send out the alert . 发出警报。
alert:n.警报; adj.警觉的; v.向…报警;
Audience: Some research has indicated that statins can be helpful. 观众:有些研究表明他汀类药物可能有用。
indicated:v.表明;显示;象征;暗示;示意;(indicate的过去分词和过去式) statins:n.他汀类药物;抑制素(statin的复数形式);降低胆固醇药物;
Can you talk about that? 你能谈谈这个吗？
LG: Yeah. There is some evidence that taking Lipitor and other common statins for cholesterol control may decrease your vulnerability to influenza . LG:好的。有证据支持服用 他汀类药剂或者其他普通的控制胆固醇含量的抑制素 可能会降低 流感的易感性。
cholesterol:n.[生化]胆固醇; decrease:v.降低;减少;缩小;减弱;n.减少;减小量;所减少的总量;减缩位置; vulnerability:n.易损性;弱点; influenza:n.[内科]流行性感冒(简写flu);家畜流行性感冒;
But we do not completely understand why. 但我们不能完全明白原因。
The mechanism isn't clear. 机制尚不明确。
mechanism:n.机制;原理,途径;进程;机械装置;技巧;
And I don't know that there is any way responsibly for someone to start medicating their children with their personal supply of Lipitor or something of that nature. 而且我不知道 让某人开始给 他们自己的孩子服用 他汀类药剂或者其他有那种特性的东西是否是负责任的行为。
responsibly:adv.负责地,可信赖地; medicating:vt.用药治疗;加药品于;
We have absolutely no idea what that would do. 我们完全不知道后果如何。
absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地;
You might be causing some very dangerous outcomes in your children, doing such a thing. 也许会给你的孩子带来非常严重的后果, 这样做的话。
outcomes:n.结果;成果;后果;出路;(outcome的复数)
Audience: How far along are we in being able to determine whether someone is actually carrying, whether somebody has this before the symptoms are full blown? 观众:需要多长时间才能鉴定出 一个人是否是病毒携带者,或是否已经感染这种病毒？ 症状完全出现之前
LG: Right. So I have for a long time said that what we really needed was a rapid diagnostic . LG:哦。很早以前我就说过, 我们真正需要的就是快速诊断程序。
diagnostic:adj.诊断的;特征的;n.诊断法;诊断结论;
And our Centers for Disease Control has labeled a test they developed -- a rapid diagnostic. 我们的疾病控制中心 已经把他们自己研发的实验列为 快速诊断程序。
labeled:adj.有标签的; v.示踪; (label的过去分词和过去式)
It takes 24 hours in a very highly developed laboratory , in highly skilled hands. 这个检测在一个非常先进的实验室 由技术娴熟的操作人员完成的话需要24小时。
highly:adv.高度地;非常;非常赞许地; laboratory:n.实验室,研究室; skilled:adj.熟练的;有技能的;需要技能的;
I'm thinking dipstick . 而我所想的是试纸诊断。
dipstick:n.量油尺;量油计;
You could do it to your own kid. It changes color. 大家可用试纸自己给孩子做测试。测试的结果是通过试纸颜色的改变
It tells you if you have H5N1. 来告诉你是否感染了H5N1。
In terms of where we are in science with DNA identification capacities and so on, it's not that far off. 就目前科学上的 DNA鉴定及其他高端技术的鉴定能力来讲, 快速诊断程序离我们不会太遥远了。
identification:n.鉴定,识别;认同;身份证明; capacities:n.能力;容量;性能;生产量(capacity的复数);
We're not there. And there hasn't been the kind of investment to get us there. 目前我们还没有这种快速的诊断程序,并且也没有投资方支持和赞助我们实现这个目标。
investment:n.投资;投入;封锁;
Audience: In the 1918 flu I understand that they theorized that there was some attenuation of the virus when it made the leap into humans. 观众:在1918年的流感中,我了解到 研究人员从理论上推测:病毒毒力已经有些衰减 当其传染到人群时。
theorized:vi.建立理论或学说;推理;vt.建立理论; attenuation:n.[物]衰减;变薄;稀释; leap into:跳进…里面去;
Is that likely, do you think, here? 您认为现在可能吗？
I mean 100 percent death rate is pretty severe . 我的意思是100%的致死率 是相当严重的。
severe:adj.极为恶劣的;十分严重的;严厉的;苛刻的;
LG: Um yeah. So we don't actually know what the lethality was of the 1918 strain to wild birds before it jumped from birds to humans. LG:哦。事实上,我们并不知道 1918年病毒株 对野鸟的致死率如何, 当其从鸟传染到人之前。
lethality:n.杀伤力;致命性;毁坏性;
It's curious that there is no evidence of mass die-offs of chickens or household birds across America before the human pandemic happened. 令人好奇的是,没有任何证据表明 全美范围内鸡或家禽 大量死亡事件发生在 人类流行病爆发之前。
curious:adj.好奇的,有求知欲的;古怪的;爱挑剔的; die-offs:绝种;顺次枯死;物种数量非人为锐减;
That may be because those events were occurring on the other side of the world where nobody was paying attention. 这也可能是大量死亡事件 发生在地球另一个地方, 在那里,人们没有给予关注。
on the other side:另一面;在另一边;
But the virus clearly went through one round around the world in a mild enough form that the British army in World War I actually certified that it was not a threat and would not affect the outcome of the war. 但是病毒确实是在 全球范围内 以一种温和的形式传播了一圈, 正如英国军队所证实的那样:在一战中, 这场流行病并没有威胁性 也不会影响战争的结果。
mild:adj.温和的; n.(英国的一种)淡味麦芽啤酒;
And after circulating around the world came back in a form that was tremendously lethal. 病毒在全球范围内传播一圈后 又以一种巨大致死力的方式再次传播。
circulating:adj.运行的; v.(液体或气体)环流,循环; (circulate的现在分词) tremendously:adv.非常地;可怕地;惊人地;
What percentage of infected people were killed by it? 感染人群里到底有多大死亡率,、
Again we don't really know for sure. 我们仍不确定。
It's clear that if you were malnourished to begin with, you had a weakened immune system, you lived in poverty in India or Africa, your likelihood of dying was far greater. 但明确的是,如果营养不良, 免疫力低下, 生活在印度或非洲等贫困地区, 那么死亡的机率就大大增加。
malnourished:adj.营养不良的;营养失调的; weakened:v.(使)虚弱,衰弱;减弱;削弱;动摇;(weaken的过去分词和过去式) likelihood:n.可能性,可能;
But we don't really know. 但是事实如何,我们确实不知道。
Audience: One of the things I've heard is that the real death cause when you get a flu is the associated pneumonia . 观众:我所听到的是, 感染流感后,真正的死因是流感导致的肺炎。
associated:adj.有关联的; v.联想; (associate的过去分词和过去式) pneumonia:n.肺炎;
And that a pneumonia vaccine may offer you 50 percent better chance of survival . 而肺炎疫苗 能带来50%的生存机率。
survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物;
LG: For a long time, researchers in emerging diseases were kind of dismissive of the pandemic flu threat on the grounds that back in 1918 they didn't have antibiotics . LG:在很长一段时间内,致力于研究新发疾病的研究人员 都有点轻视流感的威胁, 因为他们认为 1918年的流感之所以有那么大的威胁性是因为没有抗生素,而不是病毒本身。
emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) dismissive:adj.表示轻视的;解雇的; antibiotics:n.抗菌素;抗生素(如青霉素);(antibiotic的复数)
And that most people who die of regular flu, which in regular flu years is about 360 thousand people worldwide , most of them senior citizens . 每年很多人死于普通流感, 全球死于普通流感的人数 大约是36万, 其中大部分死者年事已高。
worldwide:adj.全世界的;adv.在世界各地; senior citizens:老人(尤指退休者);
And they die not of the flu but because the flu gives an assault to their immune system. 他们死因不是流感本身,而是流感侵袭了他们的免疫系统。
assault:v.袭击;殴打;威胁;非议;(assault的现在分词)
And along comes pneumococcus , or another bacteria, streptococcus , and boom , they get a bacterial pneumonia. 随后就感染了肺炎球菌, 或其他的细菌,如链球菌, 这些细菌大量增殖,然后流感患者就得了细菌性肺炎。
pneumococcus:n.[微][基医]肺炎球菌; streptococcus:n.链球菌;链球菌属; boom:n.繁荣;吊杆;v.激增;繁荣昌盛;轰鸣;轰响;adj.(美)猛涨起来的; bacterial:adj.[微]细菌的;
But it turns out that in 1918 that was not the case at all. 但是1918年的流感并不是这么回事。
And so far in the H5N1 cases in people, similarly bacterial infection has not been an issue at all. 到目前为止,对于感染H5N1的人群来说, 类似的细菌感染 还不是个问题,
similarly:adv.同样地;类似于; infection:n.感染;传染;(身体某部位的)感染;传染病;
It's this absolutely phenomenal disruption of the immune system, that is the key to why people die of this virus. 免疫系统被严重破坏才是主要因素, 这就是流感患者死亡的关键所在。
phenomenal:adj.现象的;显著的;异常的;能知觉的;惊人的,非凡的; disruption:n.破坏,毁坏;分裂,瓦解;
And I would just add we saw the same thing with SARS. 最后我在补充一点, 在SARS爆发时我们发现了同样的问题。
So what's going on here is your body says, your immune system sends out all its sentinels and says, "I don't know what the heck this is. 所以你的身体状况决定你的命运, 免疫系统释放出所有的防御信号,这些信号可能会反馈到 “我不知道这到底是什么,
sentinels:n.哨兵;vt.守卫,放哨; heck:n.(英口)同"hell",表示略微烦恼或吃惊;
We've never seen anything even remotely like this before." 我从未见过与之类似的东西。”
remotely:adv.遥远地;偏僻地;(程度)极微地,极轻地;
It won't do any good to bring in the sharp shooters because those antibodies aren't here. 此时,免疫系统不会起到什么好的作用, 因为体液中没有相应的免疫抗体。
sharp:锋利的,尖的 shooters:n.射手;射击武器;枪;(shooter的复数) antibodies:n.[免疫]抗体(antibody的复数);
And it won't do any good to bring in the tanks and the artillery because those T-cells don't recognize it either. 而且,动员出所有可消灭病毒的细胞也不会起到什么作用, 因为那些T细胞也不会识别病毒。
artillery:n.火炮;大炮;炮队;炮术; T-cells:t淋巴细胞; recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;
So we're going to have to go all out thermonuclear response , stimulate the total cytokine cascade . 所以,体内将要进行的是剧烈的热反应, 启动细胞因子的级联反应效应。
go all out:鼓足干劲,全力以赴; thermonuclear:adj.[核]热核的;高热原子核反应的; response:n.响应;反应;回答; stimulate:v.刺激;激发;促进;激励; cytokine:n.[细胞]细胞因子;细胞激素; cascade:n.小瀑布,瀑布状物;串联;vi.像瀑布般大量倾泻下来;vi.像瀑布般悬挂着;
The whole immune system swarms into the lungs. 整个免疫系统将集中在肺部。
swarms:n.(昆虫等)群;[蜂]蜂群(swarm的复数);v.蜂拥;云集(swarm的第三人称单数);
And yes they die, drowning in their own fluids , of pneumonia. 而患者最终死于肺炎。
drowning:v.溺水;淹没;淹死,溺死;浸泡;(drown的现在分词) fluids:n.液体;流体;液;(fluid的复数)
But it's not bacterial pneumonia. 但这并不是细菌性肺炎,
And it's not a pneumonia that would respond to a vaccine. 不能够对疫苗产生免疫反应的肺炎。
And I think my time is up. I thank you all for your attention. 时间到了,谢谢大家。
(Applause) 鼓掌