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LarryBrilliant_2020S-_全球疫情需要全球性的解决办法_-
Helen Walters: So, Chris, who's up first? 海伦 · 沃特斯（Helen Walters）: 克里斯,第一位嘉宾是谁？
Chris Anderson: Well, we have a man who's worried about pandemics pretty much his whole life. 克里斯 · 安德森（Chris Anderson）: 有一个人一辈子 都在担心传染病大流行。
He played an absolutely key role, more than 40 years ago, in helping the world get rid of the scourge of smallpox . 四十多年前,他在帮助全世界 扑灭天花病毒的过程中, 起到了绝对关键的作用。
And in 2006, he came to TED to warn the world of the dire risk of a global pandemic, and what we might do about it. 在 2006 年, 他来到 TED,提醒全世界 全球传染病大流行的严峻风险, 以及我们该如何应对。
pandemics:大流行;流行病; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; scourge:vt.鞭打;蹂躏;严斥;痛斥;n.鞭;灾祸;鞭子;苦难的根源; smallpox:n.[内科]天花; dire:adj.可怕的;悲惨的;极端的; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的;
So please welcome here Dr. Larry Brilliant. 那么,让我们欢迎拉里·布里恩特博士 （Dr. Larry Brilliant）。
Larry, so good to see you. 拉里,很高兴见到你。
Larry Brilliant: Thank you, nice to see you. 拉里 · 布里恩特: 谢谢,我也很高兴见到你。
CA: Larry, in that talk, you showed a video clip that was a simulation of what a pandemic might look like. 克里斯: 拉里,在那次演讲中, 你给我们看了一段 模拟传染病大流行的视频。
I would like to play it -- this gave me chills . 我想在这里播放一下 —— 它让我浑身起鸡皮疙瘩。
Larry Brilliant (TED2006): Let me show you a simulation of what a pandemic looks like, so we know what we're talking about. 拉里 · 布里恩特（TED2006）: 我想给大家看一段 模拟传染病大流行的视频, 这样比较直观。
clip:v.剪辑;修剪;削减;固定;n.夹;夹子;速度;钳; simulation:n.仿真;模拟;模仿;假装; chills:n.寒冷; v.使变冷;
Let's assume , for example, that the first case occurs in South Asia. 比如说,假设第一个病例发生在南亚,
It initially goes quite slowly, you get two or three discrete locations . 一开始它传播得比较慢, 你能看到两三个离散的地点。
Then there will be secondary outbreaks . 接着会有二次爆发。
And the disease will spread from country to country so fast that you won't know what hit you. 然后疫情会在国与国之间传播, 速度如此之快, 让你完全摸不清状况。
assume:v.承担;假定;采取;呈现; occurs:v.重现(occur的第三人称单数); initially:adv.最初,首先;开头; discrete:adj.离散的,不连续的;n.分立元件;独立部件; locations:n.地方;地点;位置;定位(location的复数) secondary:adj.第二的;中等的;次要的;中级的;n.副手;代理人; outbreaks:n.(战争的)爆发;(疾病的)发作;vi.爆发; disease:n.病,[医]疾病;弊病;vt.传染;使…有病;
Within three weeks, it will be everywhere in the world. 在三周之内, 病毒就会遍布全世界。
Now if we had an undo button, and we could go back and isolate it and grab it when it first started, if we could find it early and we had early detection and early response , 如果有一个 “撤销” 键, 能让我们回到 疫情刚开始的时候, 马上进行隔离与遏制, 如果我们能尽早发现、尽早排查、 尽早响应,
and we could put each one of those viruses in jail , that's the only way to deal with something like a pandemic. 我们就能把每一个病毒都“关”起来。 这就是应对全球传染病大流行 唯一的办法。
CA: Larry, that phrase you mentioned there, "early detection," "early response," 克里斯: 拉里,你在视频里说的那句话, “尽早发现”、“尽早响应”,
isolate:v.孤立; n.[微]分离菌; grab:v.攫取;霸占;将…深深吸引;n.攫取;霸占;夺取之物; detection:n.侦查,探测;发觉,发现;察觉; response:n.响应;反应;回答; jail:n.监狱;监牢;拘留所;v.监禁;下狱;
that was a key theme of that talk, you made us all repeat it several times. 这是那场演讲的核心主题, 你当时让我们都复述了几遍。
Is that still the key to preventing a pandemic? 这到现在仍然是 预防传染病大流行的关键吗？
LB: Oh, surely. 拉里:噢,当然了。
You know, when you have a pandemic, something moving at exponential speed, if you miss the first two weeks, if you're late the first two weeks, it's not the deaths and the illness from the first two weeks you lose, it's the two weeks at the peak . 当你面对一场以指数级速度发展的 大流行病的时候, 如果你错失了头两个星期, 如果你晚了两个星期应对, 那么我们失去的就不只是 前两个星期的发病和死亡, 而是疫情高峰期的两周。
Those are prevented if you act early. 只要你尽早行动, 这些是可以避免的。
Early response is critical , early detection is a condition precedent . 尽早响应是至关重要的, 而尽早发现是先决条件。
CA: And how would you grade the world on its early detection, early response to COVID-19? 克里斯:那么在这两个方面, 你会给全球 对新冠的响应打几分呢？
exponential:adj.指数的;n.指数; peak:n.高峰; v.达到高峰; adj.最高度的; critical:adj.鉴定的;[核]临界的;批评的,爱挑剔的;危险的;决定性的;评论的; precedent:n.先例;前例;adj.在前的;在先的;
LB: Of course, you gave me this question earlier, so I've been thinking a lot about it. 拉里:你之前问过我这个问题, 我也考虑了很久。
I think I would go through the countries, and I've actually made a list. 我觉得我可以逐一 给各个国家打分, 实际上我列了一张表。
I think the island republics of Taiwan, Iceland and certainly New Zealand would get an A. 我认为一些岛屿国家（地区）, 例如台湾、冰岛和新西兰, 可以得 “A”。
The island republic of the UK and the United States -- which is not an island, no matter how much we may think we are -- would get a failing grade. 岛国英国, 还有并非岛国的美国—— 不管我们自己有多么觉得 我们也是座岛—— 都 “不及格”。
I'd give a B to South Korea and to Germany. 我会给韩国和德国打 “B”,
Zealand:西兰岛(丹麦最大的岛) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式)
And in between ... 然后别的国家……
So it's a very heterogeneous response, I think. 我觉得全球各国的响应情况差别很大。
The world as a whole is faltering . 整个世界呈现出了 一种犹豫、迟疑的状态。
We shouldn't be proud of what's happening right now. 我们不应该为现状感到自豪。
CA: I mean, we got the detection pretty early, or at least some doctors in China got the detection pretty early. 克里斯:我觉得这次病毒 其实发现得挺早的, 起码中国的一些医生很早就发现了。
heterogeneous:adj.[化学]多相的;异种的;[化学]不均匀的;由不同成分形成的; as a whole:总的来说; faltering:adj.蹒跚的;犹豫的;支吾的;v.支吾地说,蹒跚地走(falter的现在分词);
LB: Earlier than the 2002 SARS, which took six months. 拉里:比 2002 年的非典要早, 他们当时用了六个月才发现病毒。
This took about six weeks. 这次新冠只用了六个星期。
And detection means not only finding it, but knowing what it is. “发现” 指的不仅仅是找到病毒, 还要知道它到底是什么病毒。
So I would give us a pretty good score on that. 所以在这一点上, 我会打一个不错的分数。
The transparency , the communication -- those are other issues . 后来的透明性、沟通等等 —— 就是另一回事了。
CA: So what was the key mistake that you think the countries you gave an F to made? 克里斯: 那么你认为不及格的那些国家, 他们犯的最主要的错误是什么？
LB: I think fear, political incompetence , interference , not taking it seriously soon enough -- it's pretty human. 拉里:我认为是恐惧、 政治上的无能与干涉、 没有尽早严肃地对待 —— 人性的本质暴露无遗。
transparency:n.透明,透明度;幻灯片;有图案的玻璃; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数) incompetence:n.无资格,不胜任;无能力;不适当;不熟练; interference:n.干扰,冲突;干涉;
I think throughout history, pretty much every pandemic is first viewed with denial and doubt. 我觉得纵观历史, 几乎每次大流行病一开始, 人们都持否认和怀疑的态度。
But those countries that acted quickly, and even those who started slow, like South Korea, they could still make up for it, and they did really well. 但那些行动迅速的国家, 甚至那些一开始 反应比较慢的国家,比如韩国, 还能后来居上,而且弥补得很好。
We've had two months that we've lost. 我们（美国）已经浪费了两个月时间。
throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及; denial:n.否认;否定;剥夺(应有的权利);拒不承认(令人不快、痛苦的事); make up for:补偿,弥补;
We've given a virus that moves exponentially a two-month head start . 我们放任可以指数扩增的病毒 抢占了两个月的先机。
That's not a good idea, Chris. 这个做法很不好,克里斯。
CA: No, indeed. 克里斯:的确不好。
I mean, there's so much puzzling information still out there about this virus. 我想说,关于这个病毒, 目前存在着太多令人困惑的信息。
What do you think the scientific consensus is going to likely end up being on, like, the two key numbers of its infectiousness and its fatality rate? 你认为最后有可能达成 什么样的科学共识？ 比如说, 两个重要指标—— 病毒的传染性和病死率？[04:41]
exponentially:adv.以指数方式; head start:领先;抢先起步的优势;有利的开端; puzzling:adj.使为难的;费解的;v.迷惑;使困惑;(puzzle的现在分词) scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; consensus:n.一致;舆论;合意; infectiousness:n.传染性;传染力; fatality:n.死亡;宿命;致命性;不幸;灾祸;
LB: So I think the kind of equation to keep in mind is that the virus moves dependent on three major issues. 拉里:我认为我们要记住一个公式: 病毒的传播取决于三个重要参数。
One is the R0, the first number of secondary cases that there are when the virus emerges . 第一个是 R0, 这是病毒开始传播时, 最初感染的二代病例个数。
In this case, people talk about it being 2.2, 2.4. 在这次的新冠疫情中, 人们讨论说这个数字 大概是 2.2 或 2.4。
equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式; keep in mind:记住; dependent on:依赖于;依靠; emerges:vi.浮现;摆脱;暴露;
But a really important paper three weeks ago, in the " Emerging Infectious Diseases " journal came out, suggesting that looking back on the Wuhan data, it's really 5.7. 但三个星期前, 在《新发传染病》期刊上 发表的一篇非常重要的论文中指出, 回看武汉早期的数据, 这个数字实际上是 5.7。
So for argument's sake , let's say that the virus is moving at exponential speed and the exponent is somewhere between 2.2 and 5.7. 所以为了方便讨论, 我们可以说病毒是以 指数级速度发展的, 而这个指数大约 在 2.2 到 5.7 之间。
The other two factors that matter are the incubation period or the generation time. 还有另外两个重要的参数, 一个是病毒的潜伏期, 或者说是迭代时间。
Emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) Diseases:n.[医]病(disease的复数);[医]疾病;[植保]病害;疾病种类; journal:n.杂志;日记;日志;(用于报纸名)…报; sake:n.目的;利益;理由;日本米酒; factors:n.因素(factor的复数); v.做代理商; incubation:n.孵化;[病毒][医]潜伏;抱蛋;
The longer that is, the slower the pandemic appears to us. 潜伏期越长, 疫情显现就越慢。
When it's really short, like six days, it moves like lightning . 当潜伏期很短,比如说六天, 疫情就会像闪电一样迅速发展。
And then the last, and the most important -- and it's often overlooked -- is the density of susceptibles. 最后一个,也是最重要的参数—— 而且经常被忽略的—— 就是易感染人群的密度。
This is a novel virus, so we want to know how many customers could it potentially have. 这是一个新型病毒, 我们想知道 它有多少潜在感染人群。
lightning:n.闪电;adj.闪电般的;飞快的;突然的 overlooked:n.被忽视;v.忽视(overlook的过去式和过去分词形式);忽略;俯瞰; density:n.密度; novel:adj.新奇的;异常的;n.小说; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地;
And as it's novel, that's eight billion of us. 而因为它是新型病毒, 这个数字就是全球八十亿人口。
The world is facing a virus that looks at all of us like equally susceptible . 我们正在面对一个 所有人都同样易受感染的病毒。
Doesn't matter our color, our race, or how wealthy we are. 不论肤色、种族、 财富。
CA: I mean, none of the numbers that you've mentioned so far are in themselves different from any other infections in recent years. 克里斯: 目前你提到的这些数字, 没有一个数字本身 有别于近年来的其他传染病。
susceptible:adj.易受影响的;易感动的;容许…的;n.易得病的人; infections:n.传染病;口腔病害(infection复数形式);
What is the combination that has made this so deadly ? 是什么样的组合 才让这次的病毒如此致命？
LB: Well, it is exactly the combination of the short incubation period and the high transmissibility . 拉里:它恰恰正是 短潜伏期和高传染性的组合。
But you know, everybody on this call has known somebody who has the disease. 但这次视频对话里的每个人 都认识一些感染了这个病毒的人。
combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合; deadly:adj.致命的;非常的;死一般的;adv.非常;如死一般地; transmissibility:n.遗传性;[机]传递率;传递性;
Sadly, many have lost a loved one. 令人难过的是, 许多人都失去了挚爱的人。
This is a terrible disease when it is serious. 这种疾病严重起来会非常可怕。
And I get calls from doctors in emergency rooms and treating people in ICUs all over the world, and they all say the same thing: "How do I choose who is going to live and who is going to die? 我接到了世界各地 在急诊室和重症监护病房里 救治病人的医生的电话, 他们都在说同一件事: “我该怎样决定谁能活下去, 谁要死去呢？
I have so few tools to deal with." 我能使用的工具实在太少了。”
It's a terrifying disease, to die alone with a ventilator in your lungs, and it's a disease that affects all of our organs . 这是一个可怕的疾病, 人们肺里插着呼吸机独自死去。 而且这是一个 会影响身体所有器官的疾病。
emergency:n.紧急情况;突发事件;非常时刻;adj.紧急的;备用的; treating:v.以…态度对待;把…看作;处理;讨论;(treat的现在分词) terrifying:adj.令人恐惧的;骇人的;极大的;v.使害怕,使恐怖;(terrify的现在分词) ventilator:n.通风设备;换气扇;[医]呼吸机; organs:n.[生物]器官;机构;风琴(organ的复数);
It's a respiratory disease -- perhaps misleading . 它是一个呼吸道疾病 —— 这么说也许存在一定的误导性,
Makes you think of a flu. 因为它让你联想到流感。
But so many of the patients have blood in their urine from kidney disease, they have gastroenteritis , they certainly have heart failure very often, we know that it affects taste and smell, the olfactory nerves , we know, of course, about the lung. 但非常多的病人尿液中有血, 这是源自肾脏疾病。 他们还会得肠胃炎, 经常伴有心脏衰竭。 我们知道它还会影响 味觉和嗅觉、嗅神经, 当然,我们还知道它对肺部的损害。
respiratory:adj.呼吸的; misleading:adj.误导的;引入歧途的;v.误导;引入歧途;使误信;(mislead的现在分词) patients:n.接受治疗者,病人;(patient的复数) urine:n.尿; kidney:n.[解剖]肾脏;腰子;个性; gastroenteritis:n.肠胃炎; heart failure:n.心力衰竭; olfactory:adj.嗅觉的;味道的;n.嗅觉器官; nerves:n.神经;神经紧张;勇气;v.鼓足勇气;振作精神;(nerve的第三人称单数和复数)
The question I have: is there any organ that it does not affect? 而我想知道的就是: 还有什么器官是不受它影响的？
And in that sense, it reminds me all too much of smallpox. 在这一点上, 它让我不得不联想起天花。
CA: So we're in a mess . 克里斯: 我们现在的情况一团糟。
What's the way forward from here? 接下来的路该怎么走？
LB: Well, the way forward is still the same. 拉里:前进的方法还是一样的,
Rapid detection, rapid response. 快速检测、 快速响应。[07:43]
reminds:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的第三人称单数) mess:n.混乱;餐厅;杂乱;肮脏;v.使不整洁;弄脏;弄乱;随地便溺;
Finding every case, and then figuring out all the contacts . 找到每一个病例, 然后找出所有接触者,
We've got great new technology for contact tracing , we've got amazing scientists working at the speed of light to give us test kits and antivirals and vaccines . 我们有先进的高新技术 可以用于追踪接触者。 我们有杰出的科学家 以光速在工作, 给我们提供试剂盒、 抗病毒药物和疫苗。
contacts:v.联系,联络;(contact的第三人称单数) technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; tracing:n.描图;v.查出;找到;追踪;追究;描绘;记述;(trace的现在分词) kits:n.装备;小桶;锦囊(kit的复数); antivirals:n.[药]抗病毒药;抗病毒物质(antiviral的复数); vaccines:n.[药][计]疫苗;
We need to slow down, the Buddhists say slow down time so that you can put your heart, your soul, into that space. 我们需要放慢疫情的发展速度, 佛教徒们说要放慢时间, 才能来得及把心与灵魂 投入到那个空间中。
We need to slow down the speed of this virus, which is why we do social distancing. 我们需要放慢这个病毒的传播速度, 这就是为什么 我们需要 “社交距离”。
Just to be clear -- flattening the curve , social distancing, it doesn't change the absolute number of cases, but it changes what could be a Mount Fuji-like peak into a pulse , 要澄清的一点是 —— 拉平疫情曲线、保持社交距离 并不会改变病例的绝对数量, 但会把原本可能 像富士山一样陡峭的峰值, 变成一段平稳脉冲。
Buddhists:n.佛教徒(Buddhist的复数); flattening:n.整平;扁率;压扁作用;v.压扁(flatten的ing形式); curve:n.曲线;弯曲;曲面;弧线;v.(使)沿曲线移动;呈曲线形; Mount:n.山;坐骑;山峰;衬纸板;v.登上;爬上;攀登;准备; pulse:n.脉冲;脉搏;脉率;强劲的音乐节拍;v.搏动;跳动;震动;洋溢着;
and then we won't also lose people because of competition for hospital beds, people who have heart attacks, need chemotherapy , difficult births, can get into the hospital, and we can use the scarce resources we have, especially in the developing world, to treat people. 这样我们便不会因为 医院床位不足而失去更多生命。 那些有心脏病的、 需要化疗的、难产的人群 就能及时在医院接受治疗。 我们可以使用紧缺的医疗资源, 来为病人治疗—— 特别是在发展中国家。
So slow down, slow down the speed of the epidemic , and then in the troughs , in between waves, jump on, double down, step on it , and find every case, trace every contact, test every case, 所以要放慢速度, 放慢大流行的速度, 然后在波谷里, 在下一波疫情来袭之前, 抓住时机、加大力度、脚踏实地, 找到每一个病例, 追踪每一个接触者, 检测每一个疑似病例,
competition:n.竞争;比赛,竞赛; chemotherapy:n.[临床]化学疗法; scarce:adv.勉强;刚;几乎不;简直不;adj.缺乏的;不足的;稀少的; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数); especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; epidemic:n.流行病;蔓延;adj.传染病;流行性的; troughs:海槽; step on it:赶快,加把劲;加大油门; trace:追溯,追踪
and then only quarantine the ones who need to be quarantined , and do that until we have a vaccine. 然后只隔离那些需要隔离的人, 一直坚持下去, 直到我们研制出疫苗。
CA: So it sounds like we have to get past the stage of just mitigation , where we're just trying to take a general shutdown , to the point where we can start identifying individual cases again and contact-trace for them and treat them separately . 克里斯:听起来, 我们必须跨越这个 仅仅是在尝试整体封锁、 缓和疫情的阶段, 必须要做到重新开始 确认每一起病例, 然后追踪接触者, 并将他们分开治疗。
quarantined:检疫;隔离; mitigation:n.减轻;缓和;平静; shutdown:n.关机;停工;关门;停播; identifying:n.识别,标识;标识关系;v.识别;(identify的现在分词) individual:n.个人;有个性的人;adj.单独的;个别的; separately:adv.分别地;分离地;个别地;
I mean, to do that, that seems like it's going to take a step up of coordination , ambition , organization , investment , that we're not really seeing the signs of yet in some countries. 我觉得为了做到这些, 似乎需要进一步提高协调能力、 信心、组织能力、投资, 而在一些国家, 我们还没有看到这些迹象。
Can we do this, how can we do this? 我们能做到吗？又该怎样做呢？
LB: Oh, of course we can do this. 拉里:哦,我们当然能做到。
I mean, Taiwan did it so beautifully, 我的意思是,台湾做得非常棒,
Iceland did it so beautifully, Germany, all with different strategies , 冰岛和德国也做得非常棒, 他们都采取了不同的策略。[09:42]
coordination:n.协调,调和;对等,同等; ambition:n.追求的目标;野心;志向;抱负; organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体; investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; strategies:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;(strategy的复数)
South Korea. 还有韩国。
It really requires competent governance , a sense of seriousness , and listening to the scientists, not the politicians following the virus. 这真的需要有能力的政府, 严肃的态度, 听取科学家而不是政治家 对于病毒的意见。
Of course we can do this. 我们当然可以做到。
Let me remind everybody -- this is not the zombie apocalypse , it's not a mass extinction event. 我要提醒每一个人, 这不是什么僵尸世界末日, 也不是大灭绝事件,
You know, 98, 99 percent of us are going to get out of this alive. 要知道,我们当中 98%, 甚至 99% 的人都会活下来,
competent:adj.胜任的;有能力的;能干的;足够的; governance:n.管理;统治;支配; seriousness:n.严重性;严肃;认真; politicians:n.政治家;(蔑)政客;(美)政治贩;(politician的复数) zombie:n.行尸走肉;蛇神;木讷呆板的人; apocalypse:n.启示;天启; mass:n.块,团; adj.群众的,民众的; v.聚集起来,聚集; extinction:n.绝种;
We need to deal with it the way we know we can, and we need to be the best version of ourselves. 关键在于,我们需要按照 我们已知可行的办法来应对它, 而且我们需要拿出 自己最好的一面——
Both sitting at home as well as in science, and certainly in leadership. 包括乖乖待在家里的普通人, 科学家,尤其是领导层。
CA: And might there be even worse pathogens out there in the future? 克里斯:未来还会出现 更加可怕的病原体吗？
Like, can you picture or describe an even worse combination of those numbers that we should start to get ready for? 比如,你能想象或者描述一下 我们现在就应该开始着手应对的 更糟的传染病指标组合的情况吗？
as well as:也;和…一样;不但…而且; pathogens:n.[基医]病原体;病原菌;[基医]致病菌; describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
LB: Well, smallpox had an R0 of 3.5 to 4.5, so that's probably about what I think this COVID will be. 拉里:天花病毒的 R0 在 3.5 到 4.5 之间, 我认为新冠病毒可能也是这样。
But it killed a third of the people. 但天花当时杀死了 1/3 的人口,
But we had a vaccine. 然而我们有了疫苗。
So those are the different sets that you have. 所以这就是能设想的 另一种情况。
But what I'm mostly worried about, and the reason that we made " Contagion " 但我最担心的 也是我们拍摄《传染病》 （“Contagion”）的原因,
and that was a fictional virus -- 那还是一个虚构的病毒 ——
I repeat, for those of you watching, that's fiction. 我对看过的观众们重申一遍, 它纯属虚构。
We created a virus that killed a lot more than this one did. 我们创造了一个 比新冠凶残得多的病毒。
CA: You're talking about the movie "Contagion" 克里斯: 你是说电影《传染病》？[11:08]
Contagion:n.传染病;蔓延;触染; fictional:adj.虚构的;小说的;
that's been trending on Netflix . 现在这部片子在 Netflix 上很流行。
And you were an advisor for. 你当时是该片的顾问。
LB: Absolutely, that's right. 拉里:对的,没错。
But we made that movie deliberately to show what a real pandemic looked like, but we did choose a pretty awful virus. 但我们是有意拍摄了那部电影, 以向人们展示一次真实的 传染病大流行会是什么样子。 但我们当时确实选了 一个非常恐怖的病毒。
trending:n.[统计]趋势;v.伸向;趋向;(trend的现在分词) Netflix:n.网飞公司(出租DVD;在线观看电影的网站。); deliberately:adv.故意地;谨慎地;慎重地;
And the reason we showed it like that, going from a bat to an apple, to a pig, to a cook, to Gwyneth Paltrow, was because that is in nature what we call spillover , as zoonotic diseases, diseases of animals, spill over to human beings. 我们之所以要这样呈现, 病毒从一只蝙蝠, 到一个苹果, 到一只猪,到一个厨师, 再到格温妮丝 · 帕特洛, 因为这就是我们所说的 自然界中的跨物种传播, 也就是人畜共患的疾病、 动物疾病跨物种传染到人类身上。
And if I look backwards three decades or forward three decades -- looking backward three decades, Ebola , SARS, Zika, swine flu, bird flu , West Nile, we can begin almost a catechism and listen to all the cacophony of these names. 如果我往回看个三十年, 或者往前看三十年—— 往回看三十年, 埃博拉、非典、寨卡病毒、 猪流感、禽流感、西尼罗河病毒, 我们几乎可以开始一次教义问答, 听听这些病毒名字刺耳的混响。
spillover:n.溢出;外流人口; zoonotic:adj.动物传染病的; spill over:满溢;泛溢; backward:adj.向后的;反向的;发展迟缓的;adv.向后地;相反地; Ebola:n.埃博拉病毒; swine:n.猪;卑贱的人; bird flu:n.禽流感(鸟类传染病,可感染人类并导致死亡); catechism:n.问答教学法;教义问答书; cacophony:n.刺耳的音调;不和谐音;
But there were 30 to 50 novel viruses that jumped into human beings. 但有 30 到 50 种新型病毒 是从动物传染到人类身上的。
And I'm afraid, looking forward, we are in the age of pandemics, we have to behave like that, we need to practice One Health, we need to understand that we're living in the same world as animals, the environment, and us, and we get rid of this fiction that we are some kind of special species . 而向前展望, 恐怕我们正身处 传染病大流行的时代, 我们必须这样做 —— 我们必须实施 “同一健康” （One Health）方针, 我们必须明白,无论是动物、 自然环境,还是人类, 我们都生活在同一个世界, 我们要摆脱 人类是某种特殊物种的幻想。
To the virus, we're not. 病毒只会对所有生物一视同仁。
CA: Mmm. 克里斯:嗯。
You mentioned vaccines, though. 不过你提到了疫苗,
Do you see any accelerated path to a vaccine? 你认为有什么 加速疫苗研发的途径吗？[12:27]
behave:v.表现;(机器等)运转;举止端正;(事物)起某种作用; species:n.[生物]物种;种类; accelerated:v.(使)加速;加速;加快(accelerate的过去分词和过去式)
LB: I do. 拉里:确实有。
I'm actually excited to see that we're doing something that we only get to think of in computer science , which is we're changing what should have always been, or has always been, rather, multiple sequential processes . 我很激动地看到, 我们正在做一些 原本只有计算机科学 能设想一下的事: 我们在改变 一直以来应当遵从的规则, 或者更确切地说, 一直以来存在的 多重循序进程。
Do safety testing, then you test for effectiveness , then for efficiency . 先进行安全检测,然后检测效果, 之后检测效率,
And then you manufacture . 最后投入生产。
We're doing all three or four of those steps, instead of doing it in sequence , we're doing in parallel . 我们现在正同时进行 三个或四个步骤, 不是循序处理,而是并行完成。
computer science:n.计算机科学; multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数; sequential:adj.连续的;相继的;有顺序的; processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); effectiveness:n.效力; efficiency:n.效率;效能;功效; manufacture:v.(用机器)大量生产; n.大量制造; sequence:n.顺序; v.按顺序排列; parallel:adj.平行的; v.与…相似; n.极其相似的人(或情况、事件等);
Bill Gates has said he's going to build seven vaccine production lines in the United States, and start preparing for production, not knowing what the end vaccine is going to be. 比尔 · 盖茨说他要在美国 建立七条疫苗生产线, 开始为疫苗生产做准备, 虽然现在还不知道 最终的疫苗是什么样的,
We're simultaneously doing safety tests and efficacy tests. 我们在同时进行 安全检测和功效检测,
I think the NIH has jumped up. 我觉得美国国立卫生研究院（NIH） 已经站出来带头了。
I'm very thrilled to see that. 我对此感到非常振奋。
CA: And how does that translate into a likely time line, do you think? 克里斯:你觉得这样做的话, 疫苗的时间线大概是怎样的？
simultaneously:adv.同时地; efficacy:n.功效,效力; thrilled:adj.非常兴奋; v.使非常兴奋; (thrill的过去分词和过去式) translate:v.翻译;被翻译;被译成;(使)转变;
A year, 18 months, is that possible? 1 年,18 个月,这可能吗？
LB: You know, Tony Fauci is our guru in this, and he said 12 to 18 months. 拉里: 托尼 · 福奇（Tony Fauci） 是这一行的专家。 他说需要 12 到 18 个月。
I think that we will do faster than that in the initial vaccine. 我觉得第一批疫苗可能更快,
But you may have heard that this virus may not give us the long-term immunity -- that something like smallpox would do. 但你可能也听说了这个病毒 可能并不会让我们长期免疫 —— 不像天花那样。
guru:n.古鲁(指印度教等宗教的宗师或领袖);领袖;专家; long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; immunity:n.免疫力;豁免权;免除;
So we're trying to make vaccines where we add adjuvants that actually make the vaccine create better immunity than the disease, so that we can confer immunity for many years. 所以我们在尝试研发 添加了佐剂的疫苗。 这样疫苗能比得病本身 这样提供的免疫力能持续许多年。
That's going to take a little longer. 这将花费更长时间研发。
CA: Last question, Larry. 克里斯:最后一个问题,拉里。
Back in 2006, as a winner of the TED Prize, we granted you a wish, and you wished the world would create this pandemic preparedness system that would prevent something like this happening. 回到 2006 年, 作为 TED 大奖的获得者, 我们让你许一个愿望, 你当时希望世界能够建立起 一个大流行病的预防系统, 来防止像今天这样的事情发生。
adjuvants:n.佐剂学;辅助者(adjuvant的复数); confer:vt.授予;给予;vi.协商; granted:v.不错,的确; conj.因为; v.同意,准予,允许; (grant的过去分词和过去式) preparedness:n.有准备;已准备;做好准备(尤指作战准备);
I feel like we, the world, let you down. 我觉得我们,整个世界, 让你失望了。
If you were to make another wish now, what would it be? 如果现在你能再许一个愿, 会是什么？
LB: Well, I don't think we're let down in terms of speed of detection. 拉里:我觉得在检测速度方面, 我们并不会觉得失望。
I'm actually pretty pleased. 我其实感到很满意。
When we met in 2006, the average one of these viruses leaping from an animal to a human, it took us six months to find that -- like the first Ebola, for example. 当我们 2006 年见面的时候, 我们平均要花六个月才能发现 比如第一例埃博拉病毒。
We're now finding the first cases in two weeks. 现在我们只花了两个星期 就找到了第一例病人。
I'm not unhappy about that, 对此我没有感到不满。
I'd like to push it down to a single incubation period. 不过把这个时间缩短到 一个潜伏期的时间内会更好。
It's a bigger issue for me. 对于我来说更大的问题是,[14:45]
leaping:adj.跳跃的,跳跃而行的;n.跳跃;v.跳跃(leap的ing形式);
What I found is that in the Smallpox Eradication Programme people of all colors, all religions, all races, so many countries, came together. 在天花的扑灭行动中, 我发现所有肤色、所有宗教、 所有种族的人们, 那么多的国家, 都能团结起来。
And it took working as a global community to conquer a global pandemic. 要战胜一场全球性的大流行病, 需要全球社会的共同努力。
Now, I feel that we have become victims of centrifugal forces. 现在,我觉得我们成为了 各种离心力的牺牲品。
We're in our nationalistic kind of barricades . 我们被各自的民族主义路障 绊住了脚步。
Eradication:n.消灭,扑灭;根除; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体; conquer:v.占领;攻克;征服;击败,战胜;对付,克服,控制;很受欢迎 centrifugal:adj.[力]离心的;远中的;n.离心机;转筒; nationalistic:adj.民族主义的;国家的; barricades:n.路障; v.设路障于;
We will not be able to conquer a pandemic unless we believe we're all in it together. 除非我们相信 大家能够同心协力, 否则我们将无法战胜 传染病大流行。
This is not some Age of Aquarius , or Kumbaya statement , this is what a pandemic forces us to realize. 这不是跨进了“万物归一”的时代, 也不是过家家似的携手迈向大同, 而是传染病大流行 迫使我们意识到,
We are all in it together, we need a global solution to a global problem. 我们是命运的共同体。 对于一个全球性的问题, 我们需要全球性的解决办法,
Anything less than that is unthinkable . 否则一切都是徒劳。
CA: Larry Brilliant, thank you so very much. 克里斯: 拉里 · 布瑞连特,非常感谢你。
Aquarius:n.宝瓶(星)座;宝瓶宫; statement:n.声明;陈述,叙述;报表,清单; solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; unthinkable:adj.不能想象的;过分的;
LB: Thank you, Chris. 拉里: 谢谢你,克里斯。