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KnutHaanaes_2015S-_如何避免导致公司失败的两大要因_
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| Here are two reasons companies fail: they only do more of the same, or they only do what's new. |
公司失败一般有两种原因: 他们总是做一样的东西, 要不然就是他们只关注新的东西。 |
| To me the real, real solution to quality growth is figuring out the balance between two activities: exploration and exploitation . |
对我来说,真正解决品质升级的办法 不外乎在两种行为中找到平衡 探索和开发 |
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solution:n.解决方案;溶液;溶解;解答; exploration:n.探索;勘探;探险;[医]探查术; exploitation:n.开发,开采;利用;广告推销;
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| Both are necessary, but it can be too much of a good thing. |
两者都甚为必要 但是太多不一定是好事 |
| Consider Facit. |
想想Facit公司 |
| I'm actually old enough to remember them. |
我已经老到能记住它的程度了 |
| Facit was a fantastic company. |
Facit是一个极好的公司 |
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fantastic:奇异的,空想的
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| They were born deep in the Swedish forest, and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world. |
在瑞典森林深处诞生 做出了世界上最好的机械计算器 |
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Swedish:adj.瑞典的;瑞典语的;瑞典人的;n.瑞典语;瑞典人; mechanical:adj.机械的;力学的;呆板的;无意识的;手工操作的; calculators:n.[计]计算器(calculator的复数);
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| Everybody used them. |
人人都用他们的计算器 |
| And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along? |
但电子计算器开始普及的时候Facit做了什么呢 |
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electronic:adj.电子的;电子器件的;电子设备的;
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| They continued doing exactly the same. |
他们继续做一样的事情（生产机械计算器） |
| In six months, they went from maximum revenue ... |
六个月内,他们从最佳收益 |
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maximum:n.最大限度;最大量;最高限度;adj.最高的;最多的;最大极限的; revenue:n.收益;营业额;税务署;
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| and they were gone. |
落到公司消失这般田地 |
| Gone. |
直至泯灭 |
| To me, the irony about the Facit story is hearing about the Facit engineers, who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan that they used to double-check their calculators. |
对我来说,关于Facit有一点讽刺的是 听说Facit工程师 他们从日本买来便宜,小型的计算器 来确保自己生产出的计算器准确无误 |
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irony:n.讽刺;反语;具有讽刺意味的事;adj.铁的;似铁的; double-check:v将…仔细检查,复核;n.复核;第二次检查;
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| (Laughter) |
（大笑） |
| Facit did too much exploitation. |
Facit过于注重开发了 |
| But exploration can go wild, too. |
然而探索有时候也会出问题 |
| A few years back, |
几年以前 |
| I worked closely alongside a European biotech company. |
我和一个欧洲的生物科技公司紧密合作 |
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biotech:abbr.生物技术;生物科技(biotechnology);
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| Let's call them OncoSearch. |
暂且称呼为OncoSearch吧 |
| The company was brilliant. |
这家公司非常卓越 |
| They had applications that promised to diagnose , even cure, certain forms of blood cancer . |
他们有保证能诊断出、甚至有望治疗 某些血液癌症的方法 |
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diagnose:vt.诊断;断定;vi.诊断;判断; cancer:n.癌症;恶性肿瘤;
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| Every day was about creating something new. |
天天都在创造新的东西 |
| They were extremely innovative , and the mantra was, "When we only get it right," |
他们极具创新性 公司的口头禅是“我们不只是把事做对” |
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extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; innovative:adj.革新的,创新的; mantra:n.咒语(尤指四吠陀经典内作为咒文或祷告唱念的);颂歌;
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| or even, "We want it perfect." |
甚至是“我们想要完美” |
| The sad thing is, before they became perfect -- even good enough -- they became obsolete . |
然而不幸的是 在他们成为完美之前 甚至是足够好之前 他们已经过时了 |
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obsolete:adj.废弃的;老式的;n.废词;陈腐的人;vt.淘汰;废弃;
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| OncoSearch did too much exploration. |
OncoSearch过于注重开发了 |
| I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago, when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University. |
我十五年前,作为斯坦福大学的访问学者之时 第一次听到探索和探险两个说法 |
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scholar:n.学者;奖学金获得者;聪颖勤奋的学生;
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| The founder of the idea is Jim March. |
吉姆-玛驰首先提出了这种思想 |
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founder:vi.失败;沉没;倒塌;变跛;vt.破坏;使摔倒;垮掉;n.创始人;建立者;翻沙工;
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| And to me the power of the idea is its practicality . |
对我来说这种思想最厉害之处是它的可行性 |
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practicality:n.实用性,实际性;实际,实例;
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| Exploration. |
探索 |
| Exploration is about coming up with what's new. |
探索是一个创新的过程 |
| It's about search, it's about discovery, it's about new products, it's about new innovations . |
和搜索有关 和发现有关 和新产品有关 和创新有关 |
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innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革;
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| It's about changing our frontiers. |
和改变我们的边界有关 |
| Our heroes are people who have done exploration: |
我们的英雄都是那些探索家 |
| Madame Curie , |
居里夫人 |
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Curie:n.[核]居里(姓氏);
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| Picasso , |
毕加索 |
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Picasso:n.毕加索(西班牙画家);
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| Neil Armstrong , |
尼尔·阿姆斯特朗 |
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Armstrong:n.阿姆斯特朗(美国宇航员,登月第一人);
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| Sir Edmund Hillary , etc. |
埃德蒙德·希拉里,等等 |
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Hillary:n.希拉里(美国国务卿);
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| I come from Norway; all our heroes are explorers , and they deserve to be. |
我是挪威人 我们那所有英雄都是探险家,而且他们值得被称作探险家 |
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explorers:n.探险者;勘探者;考察者;(explorer的复数) deserve:vi.应受,应得;
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| We all know that exploration is risky. |
我们都知道探索是存在风险的 |
| We don't know the answers, we don't know if we're going to find them, and we know that the risks are high. |
我们不知道答案 不清楚是否可以找到答案 而且我们知道风险很大 |
| Exploitation is the opposite. |
开发则正好相反 |
| Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have and making good, better. |
开发是利用我们现有的知识 然后让他们变得更好 |
| Exploitation is about making our trains run on time. |
开发是关于让我们的火车准点出发 |
| It's about making good products faster and cheaper. |
这是有关于更快生产出更便宜的产品 |
| Exploitation is not risky -- in the short term. |
开发没有风险 至少短时内 |
| But if we only exploit, it's very risky in the long term. |
但是如果我们只是开发 长远来说风险极大 |
| And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups who keep singing the same songs again and again , until they become obsolete or even pathetic . |
而且我认为我们都知道一些有名的流行乐团 一直唱一样的歌循环往复,周而复始 直到他们过时甚至有些可怜为止 |
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again and again:adv.再三地,反复地; pathetic:adj.可怜的,悲哀的;感伤的;乏味的;
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| That's the risk of exploitation. |
这就是过度开发的风险 |
| So if we take a long-term perspective , we explore. |
所以,在长远的角度的来说,我们要探索 |
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long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; perspective:n.观点;远景;透视图;adj.透视的;
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| If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit. |
对短时间来说,我们开发 |
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short-term:adj.短期的;
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| Small children, they explore all day. |
小孩子们天天探索新事物 |
| All day it's about exploration. |
每天都在探索 |
| As we grow older, we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on. |
随着年龄的增长 更多的知识等待我们开发,因此我们不怎么探索了 |
| The same goes for companies. |
对于公司来说也一样 |
| Companies become, by nature, less innovative as they become more competent . |
公司如果越来越有能力 自然而然会逐渐变得不那么有创新性 |
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competent:adj.胜任的;有能力的;能干的;足够的;
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| And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs. |
当然这对于CEO们来说是令他们担心的事情 |
| And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways. |
而且我常常听到各种各样这样的问题 |
| For example, "How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?" |
举个例子 ”如何同时有效的运营和重新改造我的公司？“ |
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reinvent:v.以新形象示人;以新形式出现;
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| Or, "How can I make sure that our company changes before we become obsolete or are hit by a crisis ?" |
或者,“我怎么才能保证 我的公司在过时或者危机来临之前改变？” |
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crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的;
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| So, doing one well is difficult. |
所以,把探索和开发之中的一项做好很难 |
| Doing both well as the same time is art -- pushing both exploration and exploitation. |
同时把两项都做好是一门艺术 去同时探索和开发 |
| So one thing we've found is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore and exploit at the same time , in parallel . |
我们发现 大约只有百分之二的公司有能力 同时进行探索和开发 |
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at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; parallel:adj.平行的; v.与…相似; n.极其相似的人(或情况、事件等);
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| But when they do, the payoffs are huge. |
但是当他们这么做了的时候 回报是巨大的 |
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payoffs:n.[会计]支付,偿付;报酬(payoff复数形式);
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| So we have lots of great examples. |
我们有很多这样的例子 |
| We have Nestlé creating Nespresso, we have Lego going into animated films, |
例如雀巢公司创造奈斯派索咖啡机 乐高公司进入动画电影领域 |
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Lego:n.乐高积木(商标名); animated:adj.栩栩如生的; v.使具活力; (animate的过去分词和过去式)
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| Toyota creating the hybrids , |
丰田公司生产混合动力汽车 |
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hybrids:n.杂交(hybrid的复数形式);混血;混合物;
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| Unilever pushing into sustainability -- there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge. |
联合利华注重可持续发展 这样的例子还有很多,而且这样做的好处是巨大的 |
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sustainability:n.持续性;永续性;能维持性;
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| Why is balancing so difficult? |
但为什么平衡两者这么难呢？ |
| I think it's difficult because there are so many traps that keep us where we are. |
我认为原因是有很多陷阱 使我们不能做我们自己 |
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traps:n.陷阱,捕捉器; v.使落入险境; (trap的第三人称单数和复数)
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| So I'll talk about two, but there are many. |
我已经讲了两个失败的例子,然而这样的例子还有很多 |
| So let's talk about the perpetual search trap. |
首先,让我们来说说“不断搜索“这个陷阱 |
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perpetual:adj.永久的;不断的;四季开花的;无期限的;
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| We discover something, but we don't have the patience or the persistence to get at it and make it work. |
我们发现了一些东西 但是我们没有足够的耐心或者毅力 去把事情做对 |
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patience:n.耐性,耐心;忍耐,容忍; persistence:n.持续;固执;存留;坚持不懈;毅力;
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| So instead of staying with it, we create something new. |
因此我们又创造了新的东西,而不是继续做我们已经在做的事情 |
| But the same goes for that, then we're in the vicious circle of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated . |
但是对这件新的东西我们又做了一样的事情（喜新厌旧） 一直下去我们陷入了恶性循环 尽管确实在创新然而还是很失望 |
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vicious circle:恶性循环; frustrated:adj.失意的,挫败的;泄气的;v.挫败;阻挠;(frustrate的过去式和过去分词)
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| OncoSearch was a good example. |
OncoSearch就是这样 |
| A famous example is, of course, Xerox . |
另一个很有名的例子当然是施乐公司 |
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Xerox:n.施乐(商标名,美国办公设备制造公司); vt.用静电复印法复印;
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| But we don't only see this in companies. |
但是我们不只在公司里看到这种现象 |
| We see this in the public sector as well. |
公共服务里也是这样 |
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public sector:n.公营部门;公共部门;
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| We all know that any kind of effective reform of education, research, health care , even defense, takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work. |
我们都知道任何形式的改革在教育, 研究,医保,甚至国防 都需要至少10,15,甚至20年 |
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effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; reform:v.改革;改进;改良;(使)悔改;n.改革;改良;改善; health care:n.卫生保健;
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| But still, we change much more often. |
但是事实上我们改变的更频繁 |
| We really don't give them the chance. |
我们其实没有给很多改变甚至一次机会（去看他们能不能成功） |
| Another trap is the success trap. |
另外一个陷阱是”既有的成功“ |
| Facit fell into the success trap. |
Facit公司就是这样 |
| They literally held the future in their hands, but they couldn't see it. |
他们明明已经拥有了未来 但是他们却看不到 |
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literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地:
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| They were simply so good at making what they loved doing, that they wouldn't change. |
他们太擅长做自己喜欢做的事情 这使得他们不予改变 |
| We are like that, too. |
我们也是这样 |
| When we know something well, it's difficult to change. |
当你把一件事情做得很好的时候,去改变和创新是很难的 |
| Bill Gates has said: "Success is a lousy teacher. |
比尔·盖茨曾经说过 成功是一个讨厌的老师 |
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lousy:adj.非常糟的;极坏的;恶劣的;
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| It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail." |
让我们幻想我们从来不会失败 |
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seduces:v.诱奸;诱骗;唆使;(seduce的第三人称单数)
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| That's the challenge with success. |
这就是既有的成功带来的挑战 |
| So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us. |
因此我认为有很多这样的例子可以教育我们 |
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apply:v.申请;涂,敷;应用;适用;请求;
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| And they apply to our companies. |
并且适用于公司 |
| The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis. |
第一课是:在危机到来前做打算 |
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get ahead of:v.胜过;
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| And any company that's able to innovate is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future. |
任何持续创新的公司 其实都是在为公司的未来买保险 |
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innovate:vi.创新;改革;革新;vt.改变;创立;创始;引人; insurance:n.保险;保险业;保险费;保费;adj.胜券在握的;
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| Netflix -- they could so easily have been content with earlier generations of distribution , but they always -- and I think they will always -- keep pushing for the next battle. |
Netflix本可以很容易满足于它早年的分配战略 然而它-我也认为它会 继续一次又一次的挑战自己 |
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Netflix:n.网飞公司(出租DVD;在线观看电影的网站。); content:n.内容,目录;满足;容量;adj.满意的;vt.使满足; distribution:n.分布;分配;分发;分销;
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| I see other companies that say, "I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes." |
我听到一些公司说 “下一次创新大潮（周期）来的时候无论如何我会赢” |
| Second one: think in multiple time scales . |
第二课:思考多个时间标度 |
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multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数; scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数)
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| I'll share a chart with you, and I think it's a wonderful one. |
我会分享一张表格给你 我认为这张表很好 |
| Any company we look at, taking a one-year perspective and looking at the valuation of the company, innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent. |
任何一家公司我所注意到的 站在“年”的角度 来分析公司的价值 创新大致只有百分之三十 |
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valuation:n.评价,估价;计算; typically:adv.代表性地;作为特色地;
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| So when we think one year, innovation isn't really that important. |
所以当我们只考虑每“年”的时候 创新不那么重要 |
| Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company -- suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent. |
但向前看,在一个”十年“的周期里 创新和更新占到了百分之七十 |
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renew:v.重新开始;中止后继续;重复强调;延长; account for:对…负有责任;对…做出解释;说明…的原因;导致;(比例)占;
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| But companies can't choose. |
但是公司们无法选择 |
| They need to fund the journey and lead the long term. |
他们需要筹集资金而且长期保持领先 |
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fund:n.基金;资金;存款;v.投资;资助; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
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| Third: invite talent. |
第三课 邀请有才之人加入 |
| I don't think it's possible for any of us to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves. |
我不认为 我们之中任何一个人可以独自在探索和开发之间找寻平衡 |
| I think it's a team sport. |
我认为这是一个团队竞技项目 |
| I think we need to allow challenging. |
我认为我们需要允许挑战发生 |
| I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged, and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge. |
衡量一个公司是否伟大的标准是这家公司是否愿意被挑战 衡量一个董事会是否好的标准是它是否会建设性地去挑战 |
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corporate:adj.公司的;组成公司(或团体)的;法人的;社团的; constructively:adv.建设性地;
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| I think that's also what good parenting is about. |
我认为这个过程像父母监护儿女一样 |
| Last one: be skeptical of success. |
最后一课:怀疑成功 |
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skeptical:adj.怀疑的;怀疑论的,不可知论的;
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| Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome, when the generals, after a big victory, were given their celebration. |
想想古罗马的胜利游行吧 当将军在胜利之后 接受庆祝 |
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triumph:v.战胜;成功;打败;n.巨大成功;重大成就;伟大胜利;喜悦;
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| Riding into Rome on the carriage , they always had a companion whispering in their ear, "Remember, you're only human." |
坐在马车上进罗马城 他们身边总会有人在他们耳边小声说道 “别忘了,你只是个平常人而已” |
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carriage:n.运输;运费;四轮马车;举止;客车厢; companion:n.同伴;伴侣;陪伴;手册;v.(与…)同行;(跟…)搭伴儿去;
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| So I hope I made the point: balancing exploration and exploitation has a huge payoff. |
所以我希望你们了解我的观点 把探索和开发平衡之后 回报是巨大的 |
| But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious . |
但是我们也要意识到这个过程是很困难的 |
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conscious:adj.意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的;
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| I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful. |
我想指出两个有用的问题 |
| First question is, looking at your own company: |
第一个问题:看看你自己的公司 |
| In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk of falling into success traps, of just going on autopilot ? |
在哪些方面你觉得你的公司有风险 掉入“满足于既有成功”的陷阱 或者就让公司自然前行？ |
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at the risk of:冒着…的危险; autopilot:n.[航]自动驾驶仪(等于automaticpilot);
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| And what can you do to challenge? |
而且你能做什么去挑战自我？ |
| Second question is: |
第二个问题是 |
| When did I explore something new last, and what kind of effect did it have on me? |
我上次探索新事物是什么时候 那次探索对我有什么启发？ |
| Is that something I should do more of? |
有什么我可以更进一步的事情吗？ |
| In my case, yes. |
对我来说答案是肯定的 |
| So let me leave you with this. |
所以我让你们想想 |
| Whether you're an explorer by nature or whether you tend to exploit what you already know, don't forget: the beauty is in the balance. |
不管你生来就是一个探险者 或者是一个对既有资源的开发者 别忘了平衡这两者是一种艺术 |
| Thank you. |
谢谢 |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |