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KishoreMahbubani_2019-_西方如何适应崛起的亚洲_-
About 200 years ago, 大约两百年前,
Napoleon famously warned ... 拿破仑有一句非常著名的警示语,
famously:adv.著名地;极好地;
He said, "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." 他说,“让中国沉睡吧, 一旦她醒了, 她将震撼整个世界。”
Despite this early warning , the West chose to go to sleep at precisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up. 虽然有这个很早的警告, 西方却恰恰在 中国、印度和其它 亚洲国家苏醒的时候 选择沉睡。
Despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; early warning:adj.预先警报的,预警的;远程警戒的;
Why did this happen? 为什么会发生这样的事情？
I'm here to address this great mystery. 我来为大家解开这个谜团。
Now what do I mean when I say the West chose to go to sleep? 当我说西方选择沉睡 是什么意思呢？
Here I'm referring to the failure of the West to react intelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously been created by the return of Asia. 这里我指的是,西方在 明智和周到地应对 亚洲回归时所建立的 一个新世界环境时 所面临的失败。
referring:v.引用;提到;将…归因于…;把…提交;(refer的现在分词) react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; intelligently:adv.聪明地,明智地; thoughtfully:adv.沉思地;体贴地,亲切地;
As a friend of the West I feel anguished by this, so my goal to today is to try to help the West. 作为西方的朋友, 我对此感到极度痛苦, 所以我今天的目的, 就是试着来帮助西方。
anguished:adj.极度痛苦的;v.使极度痛苦(anguish的过去式);
But I have to begin the story first by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of the world. 但是首先,我需要讲一个故事, 这个故事是讲述西方如何 使这个世界其他国家苏醒的。
Look at chart one. 请看图一。
From the year one through the year 1820, the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India. 从第一年,到1820年, 世界上两个最大的经济体 一直都是中国和印度。
economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数)
So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off, followed by North America . 所以只有过去的200年 由欧洲获得了第一名, 北美紧随其后。
North America:n.北美洲;
So the past 200 years of world history have therefore been a major historical aberration . 所以过去200年的世界历史 成为了一个重要的历史偏差。
historical:adj.历史的;史学的;基于史实的; aberration:n.失常;离开正路,越轨;
All aberrations come to a natural end and this is what we are seeing. 所有的偏差最后终会 走到一个自然的结局, 就是我们现在看到的。
aberrations:n.[光]像差;[生物]畸变;析光差;脱离常轨(aberration的复数形式);
And if you look at chart two, you'll see how quickly and how forcefully 如果你看一下图表二, 你将会看到中国和印度将会
forcefully:adv.强有力地;激烈地;有说服力地;
China and India are coming back. 多么快速和多么强有力地回归。
The big question is: 最大的问题是:
Who woke up China and India? 谁使中国和印度苏醒了？
The only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization that did so. 唯一坦诚的答案是,西方文明 使它们苏醒了。
civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明;
We all know that the West was the first to successfully modernize , transform itself; initially it used its power to colonize and dominate the world. 我们都知道西方是第一个 成功现代化 和转型的群体; 最初它使用自己的力量殖民统治世界。
modernize:vt.使…现代化;vi.现代化; transform:v.使改变;使改观;使转换;n.[数]变换式;[化]反式; initially:adv.最初,首先;开头; colonize:vt.将…开拓为殖民地; vi.开拓殖民地; dominate:vt.控制;支配;占优势;在…中占主要地位;vi.占优势;处于支配地位;
But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom with the rest of the world. 但是随着时间流逝, 它与世界上的其它国家 分享了西方智慧的馈赠。
wisdom:n.智慧;明智;才智;学问;
Let me add here that I have personally benefited from the sharing of Western wisdom. 请让我在这里 加入一点我作为个人 收到的来自分享西方智慧的馈赠。
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言;
When I was born in Singapore, which was then a poor British colony , in 1948, 当我出生在新加坡时, 那时新加坡还只是 一个贫穷的英国殖民地。 在1948年,
colony:n.殖民地;移民队;
I experienced, like three-quarters of humanity then, extreme poverty . 就像世界上四分之三 的人类那样, 我也经历了极度的贫穷。
three-quarters:adj.四分之三的;n.四分之三; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; extreme:adj.极端的;极度的;偏激的;尽头的;n.极端;末端;最大程度;极端的事物; poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
Indeed, on the first day when I went to school at the age of six, 事实上,当我在6岁 第一次走进学校时,
I was put in a special feeding program because I was technically undernourished . 参加了一个特殊营养计划, 因为我营养不良。
undernourished:adj.营养不良的,营养不足的; v.供以不足的营养(undernourish的过去分词形式);
Now as you can see I'm overnourished . 现在你们看,我是营养过剩了。
as you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的; overnourished:营养过剩;
(Laughter) （笑声）
But the greatest gift I got was that of Western education. 但是我收到的 最棒的礼物是西方教育。
Now since I've personally traveled this journey from third world poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence, 自从我自己进行了这场旅行, 从贫穷的第三世界国家 到一个舒适的中产阶级生活,
journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行; third world:n.第三世界; middle-class:adj.中产阶级的;中层社会的;
I can speak with great conviction about the impact of Western wisdom and the sharing of Western wisdom with the world. 我可以用坚定的口吻 来讲述西方智慧的影响 和西方智慧与世界做的分享。
conviction:n.判罪;定罪;坚定的看法(或信念);坚信;肯定; impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
And one particular gift that the West shared was the art of reasoning. 其中一个特别的馈赠是, 西方分享了 推理的艺术。
Now reasoning was not invented by the West. 推理不是西方创造的。
It's inherent in all cultures and civilizations . 它是所有的文化和文明与生俱来的。
inherent:adj.固有的;内在的;与生俱来的,遗传的; civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it is in Indian civilization. Amartya Sen描述过推理是 如何深深的扎根在印度文明里。
described:v.描述;形容;把…称为;做…运动;(describe的过去分词和过去式) embedded:adj.嵌入式的;植入的;内含的;v.嵌入(embed的过去式和过去分词形式);
Yet there's also no doubt that it was the West that carried the art of reasoning to a much higher level. 但是无可否认的是, 是西方将推理的艺术 带向了更高的层次。
And through the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment , the Industrial Revolution , the West really raised it forcefully, and equally importantly used this, applied it to solve many major practical problems. 并且通过科学革命, 启蒙运动, 工业革命, 西方强有力地崛起, 同样重要的是, 应用它来解决许多重要的实际问题。
Scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; Enlightenment:n.启迪;启蒙运动;教化; Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式) practical:adj.实际的;真实的;客观存在的;n.实习课;实践课;
And the West then shared this art of applied reasoning with the rest of the world, and I can tell you that it led to what I call three silent revolutions . 然后西方与世界其他地区 分享了应用推理的艺术, 并且我可以告诉你们,它引起了 我所谓的“三次沉默革命“。
revolutions:n.革命,转数(revolution的复数形式);
And as an Asian, 作为一名亚洲人,
I can describe how these silent revolutions transformed Asia. 我可以描述这些沉默革命 是如何让亚洲转变的。
transformed:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);(transform的过去分词和过去式)
The first revolution was in economics. 第一个革命是在经济方面。
The main reason why so many Asian economies, including the communist societies of China and Vietnam, have performed so spectacularly well in economic development, 亚洲经济体,包括社会主义国家在内 的中国和越南, 能够有着表现如此惊人 的经济发展的原因,
communist:n.共产党员;共产主义者;adj.共产主义的; performed:v.表演;执行;履行;演出;工作,运转(好/不好)(perform的过去分词和过去式) spectacularly:adv.壮观地;引人注目地; economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing free market economics -- a gift from the West. 是因为他们最终完全理解、 吸收并且执行了 自由市场经济—— 一个来自西方的馈赠。
finally:adv.终于;最终;(用于列举)最后;彻底地; absorbed:adj.被…吸引住; v.吸收(液体、气体等); (absorb的过去分词和过去式) implementing:n.实施,执行;实现;v.贯彻,执行(implement的现在分词); free market:自由市场;
Adam Smith was right. 亚当·密斯是对的。
If you let markets decide, productivity goes up. 如果你让市场来主导, 生产力就会提升。
productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力;
The second gift was psychological . 第二个馈赠是心理学。
psychological:adj.心理的;心理学的;精神上的;
Here too I can speak from personal experience. 这里我同样可以 通过我自身的经历来讲述。
When I was young, my mother and her generation believed that life was determined by fate. 在我年幼的时候, 我的母亲和她那一代人都相信, 人的命运是注定的,
determined:adj.决定了的:v.决定;(determine的过去分词和过去式)
You couldn't do anything about it. 你无法反抗你的命运。
My generation and the generation of Asians after me, believe that we can take charge and we can improve our lives. 我那个年代 和我之后年代的亚洲人, 则相信我们可以主导命运 并且我们可以改善自己的生活。
Asians:adj.亚洲的;亚洲人的;n.亚洲人; improve:v.改进;改善;
And this may explain, for example, the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today. 这或许可以解释,比如, 如今在整个亚洲随处可见的 突增的创业数量。
spike:n.长钉,道钉;钉鞋;细高跟;vt.阻止;以大钉钉牢;用尖物刺穿; entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神; throughout:adv.自始至终,到处;全部;prep.贯穿,遍及;
And if you travel through Asia today, you will also see the results of the third revolution: the revolution of good governance . 现在如果你在亚洲旅游, 你同样将会看到第三个革命的结果: 一个优质治理的革命。
governance:n.管理;统治;支配;
Now as a result of good governance -- travel in Asia, you see better health care , better education, better infrastructure , better public policies . 由于一个优质的治理—— 在亚洲周游, 你会看到更好的医疗, 更好的教育, 更完善的基础建设, 更人性化的公共政策。
as a result:结果; health care:n.卫生保健; infrastructure:n.基础设施;公共建设;下部构造; policies:n.政策;方针;原则;为人之道;保险单(policy的复数)
It's a different world. 它是一个不同的世界。
Now having transformed the world through the sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world, the logical and rational response of the West should have been to say, "Hey, we have to adjust and adapt to this new world." 现在亚洲已经通过与世界其它区域 共享西方智慧,改变了世界, 西方有逻辑的理性回答应当是 “嘿,我们不得不调整自己 去适应这个新的世界。”
rational:n.理性;人类;合理的事物;[数]有理数;adj.合理的;理性的;明智的;理智的; response:n.响应;反应;回答; adjust:v.调整;调节;适应;习惯; adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
Instead, the West chose to go to sleep. 相反,西方选择沉睡。
Why did it happen? 为什么会这样呢？
I believe it happened because the West became distracted with two major events. 我相信它发生 是因为西方被两个重要的事件分心了。
distracted:adj.心烦意乱; v.转移(注意力); (distract的过去分词和过去式)
The first event was the end of the Cold War. 第一个事件是冷战结束。
Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory. 是的,冷战的结束 是一个伟大的胜利。
The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union without firing a shot. 西方不费一个子弹 就打败了强大的苏联。
mighty:adj.强而有力的;巨大的;非凡的;adv.非常;很;极其; Soviet:adj.苏维埃的;苏联的;n.苏维埃(前苏联的各级代表会议);苏联人;
Amazing. 不可思议。
But you know, when you have a great victory like this, it also leads to arrogance and hubris . 但是要知道,当你有了 一个这么伟大的胜利, 也同样导致了自大和傲慢。
arrogance:n.自大;傲慢态度; hubris:n.傲慢;狂妄自大;
And this hubris was best captured in a very famous essay by Francis Fukuyama called "The End of History?" 这种自大也被作家福山 一篇非常著名的论文 《历史的结束》完美的诠释了。
captured:adj.捕获的;被俘的;v.捕获;占领;引起;(capture的过去式和过去分词)
Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticated message, but all that the West heard from this essay was that we, the liberal democracies , we have succeeded, we don't have to change, we don't have to adapt, it's only the rest of the world that has to change and adapt. 福山传递了 一条非常复杂的信息, 但是西方从这篇论文里 获得的所有信息 就是我们,自由民主国家, 我们胜利了, 我们不需要改变, 我们也不需要去适应, 世界其它区域需要 来改变和适应我们。
sophisticated:adj.复杂的;老练的;见多识广的;水平高的; liberal:adj.宽宏大度的; n.理解且尊重他人意见的人; democracies:民主;
Unfortunately , like a dangerous opiate , this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because it put them to sleep just at precisely the moment when China and India were waking up and the West didn't adjust and adapt. 不幸的是,就像危险的鸦片, 这篇论文确实对西方 造成了大量的大脑损伤, 因为这让它们选择沉睡, 恰好在中国和印度苏醒时, 而西方并没有调整适应。
Unfortunately:adv.不幸地; opiate:n.鸦片制剂;麻醉剂;镇静剂;adj.含鸦片的;安眠的;vt.用鸦片麻醉;使缓和; brain damage:n.(疾病、事故导致的)脑损伤;
The second major event was 9/11, which happened in 2001. 第二个重要事件是 发生于2001年的9/11恐怖袭击。
And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief . 众所周知,9/11引起了 巨大的震惊和悲痛。
grief:n.悲痛;忧伤;不幸;
I personally experienced the shock and grief because I was in Manhattan when 9/11 happened. 我个人也经历了这样的震惊和悲痛, 因为当天我就在曼哈顿。
9/11 also generated a lot of anger, and in this anger, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan and later, Iraq. 9/11同样也引发了众怒, 然后在这样的愤怒中, 美国决定侵略阿富汗, 以及随后的伊拉克。
generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词) United:adj.联合的; v.联合,团结; (unite的过去分词和过去式) invade:v.侵犯;侵略;侵袭;干扰; Afghanistan:n.阿富汗(国家名称,位于亚洲);
And unfortunately, partly as a result of this anger, the West didn't notice the significance of another event that happened also in 2001. 不幸的是, 这种愤怒带来的一部分结果就是, 西方没有注意到另外一个 同样发生在2001年的重要事件。
significance:n.意义;重要性;意思;
China joined the World Trade Organization . 中国加入了世界贸易组织。
Organization:n.组织;机构;体制;团体;
Now, when you suddenly inject 900 million new workers into the global capitalist system, it would naturally lead to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction . 当你突然 向全球资本系统注入 9亿名新的劳动力, 这自然地就引发了 被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特 称之为的“创造性破坏”。
inject:v.注入;注射; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; capitalist:n.资本家;资本主义者;adj.资本主义的;资本家的; naturally:adv.自然地;自然而然地;轻而易举;天生地;大方地; Joseph:n.连帽大氅; creative:adj.创造性的; destruction:n.破坏,毁灭;摧毁;
Western workers lost their jobs, they saw their incomes stagnate , clearly people had to think about new competitive policies, workers needed retraining , workers needed new skills. 西方的工人们失去了工作, 眼睁睁看着他们的收入停滞, 显然人们不得不思考新的竞争策略, 工人需要重新培训, 需要新的技能。
stagnate:vi.停滞;淤塞;变萧条;vt.使淤塞;使沉滞;使萧条; competitive:adj.竞争的;比赛的;求胜心切的; retraining:v.(接受)重新培养,再教育,再培训;(retrain的现在分词)
None of this was done. 对此,国家没有采取任何行动。
So partly as a result of this, the United States of America became the only major developed society yes, 50 percent -- average income went down over a 30-year period, 所以部分出于这个原因, 美国成为了 唯一一个主要发达社会中 是的,50%的—— 平均收入在1980年 到2010年的30年间
United States of America:un.美利坚合众国;
So partly, as a result of this, it led eventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, who exploited the anger of the working classes, who are predominantly white. 所以部分由于这个原因, 最终导致了在2016年 Donald Trump的当选, 他利用了工人阶层的愤怒, 这些人信奉白人至上主义。
eventually:adv.最后,终于; Trump:n.王牌;主牌花色;v.出王牌赢(牌);;赢;胜过;打败; exploited:v.剥削;压榨;运用;利用;发挥(exploit的过去分词和过去式) predominantly:adv.主要地;显著地;
It also contributed to the rise of populism in Europe. 这也促成了欧洲民粹主义的崛起。
contributed:v.捐献,捐赠(尤指款或物); (contribute的过去式和过去分词) populism:n.民粹主义,平民主义;
And one wonders, could this populism have been avoided if the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11? 有人可能疑惑, 如果西方没有被冷战结束 和9/11转移注意力, 是不是民粹主义就可以被避免？
But the big question we face today is this: 但是目前我们面对的最大的问题是:
Is it too late? 现在是不是太晚了？
Has the West lost everything? 西方已经失去了一切了吗？
And my answer is that it's not too late. 我的答案则是还不算太晚。
It is possible for the West to recover and come back in strength. 西方恢复并回到强盛时期 是有可能的。
And using the Western art of reasoning, 利用西方的推理艺术,
I would recommend that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy : minimalist , multilateral and Machiavellian . 我会推荐西方采用一个新“3M”策略: 极简主义,多边主义 和马基雅弗利主义。
recommend:v.推荐;介绍;劝告;建议;使受欢迎; adopt:v.采取;接受;收养;正式通过; strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略; minimalist:n.极简主义者;简约主义者;adj.极简抽象艺术的,极简抽象风格的; multilateral:adj.[数]多边的;多国的,多国参加的; Machiavellian:adj.不择手段的;狡猾的;马基雅弗利的;n.权谋政治家;
(Laughter) （笑声）
Why minimalist? 为什么是极简主义？
Now even though Western domination has ended, the West continues to intervene and interfere in the affairs of many other societies. 尽管西方统治时期已经结束, 西方仍然插手和干预了 多国内政。
domination:n.控制;支配; intervene:vi.干涉;调停;插入; interfere:v.干涉;干预;介入;
This is unwise . 这是不明智的。
unwise:adj.不明智的;愚蠢的;轻率的;
This is generating anger and resentment , especially in Islamic societies. 这引发了愤怒和怨恨, 尤其是穆斯林社会。
generating:v.产生;引起;(generate的现在分词) resentment:n.愤恨,怨恨; especially:adv.尤其;特别;格外;十分; Islamic:adj.穆斯林的;
It's also draining the resources and spirits of Western societies. 这同样也在消耗西方社会 的资源和精神。
draining:v.排空;(使)流光;放干;喝光;喝干;(drain的现在分词) resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数);
Now I know that the Islamic world is having difficulties modernizing . 我知道现在穆斯林世界 面临着现代化进程的困难。
modernizing:v.现代化(modernize的现在分词);
It will have to find its way, but it's more likely to do so if it is left alone to do so. 它会找到自己的路, 但是如果让它独立发展 会更有可能成功。
Now I can say this with some conviction because I come from a region , 我能够有信心的说这句话, 是因为我来自
region:n.地区;范围;部位;
Southeast Asia, which has almost as many Muslims as the Arab world. 东南亚地区, 那里有着和阿拉伯世界 同样数量的穆斯林。
Southeast:adj.东南的;来自东南的;n.东南;东南地区;adv.来自东南;
266 million Muslims. 2.66亿穆斯林。
Southeast Asia is also one of the most diverse continents on planet earth, because you also have 146 million Christians, 149 million Buddhists -- 东南亚是这个地球上 最多样化的地区之一, 因为那里还有1.46亿基督徒, 1.49亿佛教徒——
diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; continents:n.[地理]大陆,大洲(continent复数); Buddhists:n.佛教徒(Buddhist的复数);
Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists -- and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus and even communists . 大乘佛教徒和小乘佛教徒—— 并且还有数以百万计的道教, 儒家和印度教徒, 甚至共产党员。
Hindus:n.印度教徒;印度教的; communists:n.共产党员(communist的复数形式);
And once known as "the Balkans of Asia," 这里曾经被称为“亚洲巴尔干半岛”,
southeast Asia today should be experiencing a clash of civilizations. 现在应该正在经历文明冲突。
clash:v.冲突; n.冲突;
Instead, what you see in southeast Asia is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planet earth with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization, 相反,你在东南亚看到的 是这个地球最和平 和繁荣的角落之一, 有着第二大成功的 地区性多边组织,
prosperous:adj.繁荣的;兴旺的; regional:adj.地区的;局部的;整个地区的;
ASEAN. 东盟。
So clearly, minimalism can work. 很明显,极简主义是可行的。
minimalism:n.极简派艺术;最低纲领;极保守行动;
The West should try it out. 西方应该试一下。
(Laughter) （笑声）
(Applause) （鼓掌）
But I'm also aware that minimalism cannot solve all the problems. 但是我也意识到极简主义 并不能解决所有问题。
There are some hard problems that have to be dealt with: 有一些很困难的问题 需要被处理——
Al-Qaeda , ISIS -- they remain dangerous threats. 基地组织,ISIS—— 它们仍然是危险的威胁。
Al-Qaeda:n.基地组织;
They must be found, they must be destroyed. 它必须得被发现,必须被摧毁。
The question is, is it wise for the West, which represents 12 percent of the world's population -- yes, 12 percent -- to fight these threats on its own or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world's population? 问题是,这对西方是否明智, 西方只占全球人口的12%—— 是的,12%—— 西方是独自与这些威胁斗争 还是与剩下88%的 全球人口共同战斗？
represents:v.代表;维护…的利益;相当于;(represent的第三人称单数)
And the logical and rational answer is that you should work with the remaining 88 percent. 符合逻辑和理性的答案是, 你应该和剩下的88%一起战斗。
Now where does one go if you want to get the support of humanity? 现在如果你想获得人类的支持, 你应该去哪里呢？
There's only one place: the United Nations . 只有一个地方: 联合国。
United Nations:n.联合国;
Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice. 我曾两次担任驻联合国大使。
ambassador:n.大使;代表;使节;
Maybe that makes me a bit biased , but I can tell you that working with the UN can lead to success. 可能这会让我带点偏见, 但我可以告诉你们跟联合国 合作可以通往成功。
biased:adj.有偏见的;结果偏倚的,有偏的;
Why is it that the first Iraq war, fought by President George H. W. Bush , succeeded? 为什么乔治 · H · W · 布什 发动的第一次伊拉克战争 会取得成功？
Bush:n.灌木; v.以灌木装饰; adj.如灌木般长得低矮的;
While the second Iraq war, fought by his son, President George W. Bush, failed? 而由他的儿子乔治 · W · 布什 发动的第二次伊拉克战争 会失败？
One key reason is that the senior Bush went to the UN to get the support of the global community before fighting the war in Iraq. 一个关键的原因在于,老布什 在发动伊拉克战争前, 曾来到联合国 寻找全球群体的支持。
senior:adj.大;级别(或地位)高的;成人的;高级水平的;n.上级;上司;较…年长的人; community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
So multilateralism works. 所以多边主义获得了成功。
multilateralism:n.多边主义;多边体制;
There's another reason why we have to work with the UN. 还有另一个我们为什么必须 和联合国合作的理由。
The world is shrinking . 世界在缩小。
shrinking:v.(使)缩水,收缩,缩小,退缩;(shrink的现在分词)
We are becoming a small, interdependent , global village . 我们正在成为一个小的, 相互依存的地球村。
interdependent:adj.相互依赖的;互助的; global village:n.地球村(指整个世界作为一个由电子通信系统连接的单一集体);
All villages need village counsels . 所有的村子都需要村委会。
counsels:n.法律顾问;忠告;商议;讨论;决策;vt.建议;劝告;vi.商讨;提出忠告;
And the only global village counsel we have, as the late UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, is the UN. 而我们唯一拥有的全球村委会, 正如已故联合国秘书长 科菲·安南所说, 是联合国。
Secretary-General:n.秘书长;总书记;
Now as a geopolitical analyst , 作为一个地缘政治分析家,
geopolitical:adj.地理政治学的; analyst:n.分析者;精神分析医师;分解者;
I do know that it's often considered naive to work with the UN. 我确实知道人们通常认为 和联合国合作 是幼稚的。
naive:adj.天真的,幼稚的;
So now let me inject my Machiavellian point. 那么现在让我把马基雅维利式 的观点插进去。
Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in the West, but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us that the goal of Machiavelli was to promote virtue , not evil . 马基雅维利是一个经常 被西方嘲笑的人物, 但自由派哲学家 以赛亚?伯林提醒我们, 马基雅维利的目标是 宣扬美德,而不是邪恶。
derided:vt.嘲笑;嘲弄; philosopher:n.哲学家;深思的人;善于思考的人; reminded:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的过去分词和过去式) promote:v.促进;推动;促销;提升;晋升; virtue:n.美德;优点;贞操;功效; evil:adj.邪恶的;不幸的;有害的;讨厌的;n.罪恶,邪恶;不幸;
So what is the Machiavellian point? 那么马基雅维利的观点是什么？
It's this: what is the best way for the West to constrain the new rising powers that are emerging ? 对于西方来说, 约束正在崛起的新兴大国 的最佳方式是什么？
constrain:v.约束;限制;强迫;强制; emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词)
And the answer is that the best way to constrain them is through multilateral rules and multilateral norms , multilateral institutions and multilateral processes . 答案是,约束他们的最好方式 是通过多边规则和多边规范、 多边机构 和多边流程。
norms:n.[标准]标准,规范;基准(norm复数形式); institutions:n.机构;慈善机构;风俗习惯,制度;(institution的复数) processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式);
Now let me conclude with one final, big message. 现在让我用最后一句 重要的信息来总结一下。
conclude:v.断定:得出结论:终止:达成:缔结(协定)
As a longtime friend of the West, 作为一个西方世界的老朋友,
longtime:adj.长时间的;为时甚久的;adv.长久地;
I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic Western societies have become. 我敏锐地意识到西方世界 已经变得多么悲观。
acutely:adv.尖锐地;剧烈地; pessimistic:adj.悲观的,厌世的;悲观主义的;
Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them, that their children will not have better lives. 在西方世界的很多人不相信 前面还有美好的未来, 他们的孩子不会有更好的生活。
So please do not fear the future or the rest of the world. 所以请不要害怕未来, 或害怕世界其他国家。
Now I can say this with some conviction, because as a Hindu Sindhi, 我可以满怀信心地说, 因为作为一个印度信德人,
I actually feel a direct cultural connection with society's diverse cultures and societies all the way from Tehran to Tokyo. 从德黑兰到东京, 我都能切实感受到 与社会多元文化和群体 的直接文化联系。
cultural:adj.与文化有关的;文化的;与艺术、文学、音乐等有关的; Tehran:n.德黑兰;
And more than half of humanity lives in this space, so with this direct cultural connection, 地球上超过一半的人 生活在这个空间中, 所以通过这种直接的文化联系,
I can say with great conviction that if the West chooses to adopt a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian, the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West. 我可以满怀信心地说, 如果西方选择采取 一种更明智的策略, 成为极简主义者、多边主义者 和马基雅维利主义者, 世界其他国家将乐于 与西方世界合作。
So a great future lies ahead for humanity. 那么,人类的美好未来就在前方。
Let's embrace it together. 让我们共同拥抱它。
embrace:n.拥抱,怀抱;v.拥抱;乐意采纳(思想、建议等);信奉;包括;
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （鼓掌）