返回首页

KateMarvel_2017-_云朵可否为我们争取时间来解决气候变化的问题﹖_
I am a climate scientist, and I hate weather. 我是气候科学家, 而我讨厌天气。
I have spent too much time in California, and I strongly feel that weather should be optional . 我花了太多时间在加州, 我强烈认为, 天气应该要是可选择的。
optional:adj.可选择的,随意的;n.选修科目;
(Laughter) （笑声）
So I don't want to experience clouds, let alone study them. 我并不想要体验云朵, 更不用说研究它们了。
let alone:更不必说;听任;不打扰;
But clouds seem to follow me wherever I go. 但不论我到哪里去, 云朵似乎都跟着我。
The thing is, clouds are a real challenge for climate science. 重点是,对于气候科学而言, 云朵是非常有挑战性的。
We don't know how they're going to react as the planet heats up, and hidden in that uncertainty might be hope. 我们不知道当地球温度上升时, 它们会如何反应, 而隐藏在那不确定性中的, 可能是希望。
react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; uncertainty:n.不确定,不可靠;
Maybe, just maybe, clouds could slow down global warming , and buy us a little bit more time to get our act together, which would be very convenient right now. 可能,只是可能, 云朵可能可以减缓全球暖化, 幫我们争取一些时间来努力想办法, 对现在会是非常好用的。
global warming:n.全球(气候)变暖;地球大气层变暖; convenient:adj.实用的;便利的;方便的;
I mean, even I could put up with a few more cloudy days if clouds saved the planet. 我的意思是,即使是我 也愿忍受多几个阴天, 如果云朵能拯救地球的话。
put up with:v.忍受;容忍;
Now, we are sure about some things. 我们能确定的有几件事。
Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas , we're emitting a lot of it, and the planet is heating up. 二氧化碳是温室气体, 我们排放了很多二氧化碳, 且地球温度在上升。
Carbon dioxide:二氧化碳; greenhouse gas:n.温室气体(尤指二氧化碳); emitting:v.发出,射出,散发(光、热、声音、气等);(emit的现在分词)
Case closed. 结案。
But I still go to work every day. 但我仍然每天都要工作。
It turns out that there is a lot that we don't understand about climate change. 结果发现, 关于气候改变,还有着很多 我们不了解的地方。
In particular , we haven't answered what seems to be a very fundamental question. 特别是,我们尚未回答 一个似乎非常基础的问题。
In particular:尤其,特别; fundamental:n.基础; adj.十分重大的;
We know it's going to get hot, but we don't know exactly how hot it's going to get. 我们知道会越来越热, 但我们不知道究竟会到多热。
Now, this is a really easy question to answer if one of you would like to give me a time machine . 这是个很容易回答的问题, 只要有人能给我一台时光机器。
time machine:n.时间机器;
But I'm going to be honest with you: if I had a time machine, 但我得对各位说实话: 如果我有一台时光机器,
I would not be hanging out at this particular point in history. 我不会在历史上的这个时间点逗留。
So in order to see the future, we have to rely on the output of computer simulations -- climate models, like this one. 所以,为了看到未来, 我们要仰赖电脑模拟的输出结果── 气候模型,就像这一个。
rely:vi.依靠;信赖; output:n.(人、机器、机构的)产量;输出;输出功率;输出量;v.输出; simulations:n.[计]模拟(simulation的复数);[计]仿真;
Now, in my line of work, 在我的这个行業,
I encounter many very charming people on the internet who like to tell me that climate models are all wrong. 我会在网上遇到许多非常迷人的人, 他们会告诉我气候模型都是错的。
encounter:v.遭遇,邂逅;遇到;n.遭遇,偶然碰见; charming:adj.令人着迷的;吸引人的;v.吸引;迷住;控制,保护;(charm的现在分词)
And I would just like to say: no kidding ! 我只想要说: 别开玩笑了！
no kidding:说真的,不要开玩笑;
Seriously? I get paid to complain about climate models. 当真吗？我领薪水来抱怨气候模型。
complain:v.投诉;发牢骚;诉说;
But we don't want models to be perfect. 但我们不要求模型完美,
We want them to be useful. 只要有用就好。
I mean, think about it: a computer simulation that's able to exactly reproduce all of reality. 想想看: 能够完全重制所有现实的电脑模拟。
reproduce:v.繁殖;复制;再现;生育;
That's not a climate model; 那不是气候模型;
That's "The Matrix ." 那是《骇客任务》。 （译注:电影名称）
Matrix:n.[数]矩阵;模型;[生物][地质]基质;母体;子宫;[地质]脉石;
So, models are not crystal balls. 所以,模型不是水晶球。
crystal:n.水晶; adj.晶莹的;
They're research tools, and the ways in which they're wrong can actually teach us a lot. 它们是研究工具, 它们错误的方式 其实能教我们很多东西。
For example: different climate models are largely able to capture the warming that we've seen so far. 比如: 不同的气候模型能捕捉到大部份 我们目前所看到的暖化现象。
largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; capture:v.俘虏;捕获;攻占;夺得;刻画,描述;n.(被)捕获;(被)俘获
But fast-forward to the end of the century under a business-as-usual scenario , and climate models don't really agree anymore. 但快转到这个世纪末, 在一切照常的情况下, 气候模型就不再一致了。
fast-forward:n.快进功能;adj.进展迅速的;vi.快进;vt.使快进; business-as-usual:na.照常营业; scenario:n.方案;情节;剧本;
Yeah, they're all warming; that's just basic physics. 是的,它们都变暖, 那只是基本的物理。
But some of them project catastrophe -- more than five times the warming we've seen already. 但有些模型预测会有大灾难── 暖化的程度是我们 目前已看到的五倍以上;
catastrophe:n.大灾难;大祸;惨败;
And others are literally more chill . 其他模型则预测稍微凉一些。
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地: chill:n.寒冷; adj.寒冷的; v.冷冻,冷藏;
So why don't climate models agree on how warm it's going to get? 所以,为什么气候模型对于 将来有多暖的预测会不一致呢？
Well, to a large extent , it's because they don't agree on what clouds will do in the future. 有很大的程度, 是因为它们对于云朵在未来 扮演什么角色的看法不一致。
extent:n.程度;范围;长度;
And that is because, just like me, computers hate clouds. 那是因为,就跟我一样, 电脑也讨厌云朵。
Computers hate clouds because they're simultaneously very large and very small. 电脑讨厌云朵是因为它们同时可大可小。
simultaneously:adv.同时地;
Clouds are formed when microscopic water droplets or ice crystals coalesce around tiny particles . 云朵的形成, 是显微镜才看得到的小水滴或冰晶体 包围在小粒子的周围结合。
microscopic:adj.微观的;用显微镜可见的; droplets:n.[流]液滴(droplet的复数);飞沫; crystals:n.[晶体]晶体(crystal的复数形式);石英晶体; coalesce:vi.合并;结合;联合;vt.使…联合;使…合并; particles:n.微粒,粒子;粒子系统;碎木料(particle的复数形式);
But at the same time , they cover two-thirds of the earth's surface. 但同时,它们覆盖了 三分之二的地球表面。
at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; two-thirds:n.三分之二;三分之二的;三分之二地;
In order to really accurately model clouds, we'd need to track the behavior of every water droplet and dust grain in the entire atmosphere , and there's no computer powerful enough to do that. 为了要真正精确地建立云朵的模型, 我们必须要追踪整个大气当中 每个水滴与尘粒的行为, 没有电脑强大到可以做到这一点。
accurately:adv.精确地,准确地; track:n.小道;足迹;车辙;轨道;v.追踪;跟踪; grain:n.粮食; v.把…作成细粒; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格;
So instead, we have to make a trade-off : we can zoom in and get the details right, but have no idea what's going on worldwide; or, we could sacrifice realism at small scales in order to see the bigger picture. 因此,我们得要做取舍: 我们可以放大一小块范围, 以求细节的正确, 但就不知道全世界发生什么事; 或者,我们可以牺牲 小规模的真实性, 以求看到更大更整体的状况。
trade-off:n.交换,交易;权衡;协定; sacrifice:n.牺牲;舍弃;祭献;祭祀;祭品;v.牺牲;献出;作祭献 realism:n.现实主义;实在论;现实主义的态度和行为; scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数)
Now, there's no one right answer, no perfect way to do this, and different climate models make different choices. 没有正确的答案, 没有完美的方式, 不同的气候模型会做不同的选择。
Now, it is unfortunate that computers struggle with clouds, because clouds are crucially important in regulating the temperature of the planet. 很不幸的是, 电脑很难处理云朵, 因为云朵在调节地球温度上, 扮演非常重要的角色。
crucially:adv.关键地;至关重要地; regulating:vt.调节;校正(regulate的现在分词);
In fact, if all the clouds went away, we would experience profound climate changes. 事实上,如果所有的云朵都没了, 我们会经历到很剧烈的气候改变。
profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的;
But without clouds, would it be warmer or colder? 但若没有云朵, 会比较温暖或比较寒冷？
The answer is both. 答案是,都会。
So I'm going to be honest with you, I am not a cloud spotter . 老实告诉各位,我不是赏云者。
spotter:n.着弹点观察员;监视人;测位仪;检路器;
My favorite type of cloud is none. 我最喜欢晴朗无云。
But even I know that clouds come in all shapes and sizes. 但即使是我这种人, 也知道云朵有各种形状大小。
Low, thick clouds like these are really good at blocking out the sun and ruining your barbecue , and high, wispy clouds like these cirrus largely let that sunlight stream through. 像这样的低厚云层很能够阻挡阳光, 让你的烤肉活动泡汤; 而像这些卷云的高云, 会让大部份的阳光穿过。
ruining:v.毁坏;破坏;毁灭;(ruin的现在分词) barbecue:n.烧烤;(户外烧烤用的)烤架;v.(在烤架上)烧烤; wispy:adj.象小束状的,纤细的;脆弱的; cirrus:n.藤蔓;[动]触毛;[植]卷须;[复数cirri];西锐(飞机生成商); sunlight:n.日光;
Every sunny day is the same, but every cloudy day is cloudy in its own way. 晴天全都一样, 但每个阴天有它自己的多云方式。
And it's this diversity that can make the global impact of clouds very hard to understand. 正是这种多样性, 让云朵的全球性影响变得难以了解。
diversity:n.差异(性):多样性:多样化: impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响;
So to see this global effect of clouds, it really helps to take a selfie . 要了解云朵的全球性效应, 拍张自拍照是很有幫助的。
selfie:n.自拍照;
It will never cease to blow my mind that we can see our planet from outer space, but we can't see all of it. 我们能够从外太空来看我们的星球, 这点总是让我感到不可思议, 但我们无法看到它的全部。
cease:v.(正式)停止;结束;中断;平息;n.(正式)不停地;不间断地;连续地; outer:adj.外面的,外部的;远离中心的;n.环外命中;
Clouds are blocking the view. 云朵会阻挡视线。
That's what they do. 这是它们的功能之一。
These low, thick clouds are extremely effective sunshades . 低空的厚云层是非常有效的遮阳板。
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地; effective:adj.有效的,起作用的;实际的,实在的;给人深刻印象; sunshades:n.遮阳伞; (sunshade的复数);
They turn back about 20 percent of everything the sun sends us. 云朵反射回去 20% 的阳光,
turn back:往回走;阻挡;翻回到;
That is a lot of wasted solar power. 浪费掉许多的太阳能。
So, low clouds are powerful sunshades, making the planet cooler. 所以,低云是很强大的遮阳板, 让地球比较凉快。
But that's not the only effect of clouds. 但云朵的效应不只如此。
Our planet has a temperature, and like anything with a temperature, it's giving off heat. 我们的星球有热度, 就像所有有热度的东西一样, 它会散热。
We are radiating thermal energy away into space, and we can see this in the infrared . 我们向太空辐射热能。 这现象用红外线就可以看到。
radiating:adj. v.发射出(光,热等)(radiate的现在分词); thermal:adj.热的;热量的;保热的;n.上升的热气流; infrared:n.红外线;adj.红外线的;
Once again, clouds are blocking the view. 同样的,云朵会阻挡视线。
That's because high clouds live in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, where it's very cold. 那是因为高云位在大气的上层, 那里非常寒冷。
upper:adj.上面的;内陆的;n.靴面;兴奋剂;
And this means that they lose very little heat to space themselves. 这意味着它们本身 散失到太空的热能很少。
But at the same time, they block the heat coming up from the planet below. 但同时,它们阻挡了 下方的地球向上散热。
The earth is trying to cool itself off, and high clouds are getting in the way . 地球试着冷却自己, 而高云却从中作梗。
in the way:妨碍;挡道;
The result is a very powerful greenhouse effect . 结果就是非常强大的温室效应。
greenhouse effect:n.温室效应;
So, clouds play this very large and dual role in the climate system. 所以,云朵在气候系统中
dual:adj.双的;双重的;n.双数;双数词;
We've got low clouds that act like a sunshade, cooling the planet, and high clouds which act like a greenhouse, warming the planet. 我们有低云当遮阳板, 冷却地球, 也有高云当温室, 暖化地球。
Right now, these two effects -- they don't cancel out . 现今,这两种效应并不会互相抵消。
cancel out:取消;抵销;
That sunshade -- it's a little bit more powerful. 遮阳的力量稍大一些些。
So if we got rid of all the clouds tomorrow, which, for the record, I am not advocating , our planet would get warmer. 所以,如果我们明天 就清除所有的云朵── 声明一下,我没在提倡这件事喔── 那么地球就会暖化。
advocating:v.拥护;支持;提倡;(advocate的现在分词)
So clearly, all of the clouds are not going away. 所以很显然,云不会消失。
But climate change is change. 但气候改变就是改变。
So we can ask: 所以我们可以问:
How will global warming change clouds? 全球暖化会如何改变云朵？
But remember, clouds are so important in regulating the earth's temperature, and they both warm and cool the planet. 但切记云朵 在调节地球温度的重要角色, 它们会冷却也会暖化地球。
So even small changes to cloud cover could have profound consequences . 所以即使云朵的覆盖稍微变了, 也可能会造成深切的影响。
consequences:n.后果,结果;影响(consequence的复数);
So we might also ask: 所以我们也可以问:
How will clouds change global warming? 云朵会如何改变全球暖化？
And that is where there might be space for hope. 那可能是能找到希望的地方。
If global warming triggers cloud changes that make for a less powerful greenhouse or a more effective sunshade, then that would enhance the cooling power of clouds. 如果全球暖化触发了云朵的改变, 导致温室变弱、 或遮阳板变得更有效, 那么那就会强化云朵的冷却力。
triggers:n.[电子]触发器;触发物(trigger的复数);v.引起(trigger的单三形式);引爆; enhance:v.提高;增强;增进;
It would act in opposition to global warming, and that's what's happening in those climate models that project relatively muted warming. 它的功能就会和全球暖化正好相反, 那就是那些预测暖化将会缓和的 气候模型中所发生的现象。
in opposition to:反对;与…相反; relatively:adv.相当程度上;相当地;相对地; muted:adj.减轻的; v.消音; (mute的过去分词和过去式)
But climate models struggle with clouds, and this uncertainty -- it goes both ways. 但,气候模型很难处理云朵, 而这不确定性是双向的。
Clouds could help us out with global warming. 云朵能协助我们处理全球暖化,
They could also make it worse. 也可能让它恶化。
Now, we know that climate change is happening because we can see it: rising temperatures, melting icecaps , shifts in rainfall patterns. 现在,我们知道气候改变正在发生, 因为我们看见: 气温上升、冰山溶化、 降雨模式转变。
melting:adj.感人的;v.(使)熔化,融化;(melt的现在分词) icecaps:n.冰盖;常积不消的冰; shifts:n.转移; v.转移; (shift的第三人称单数) rainfall:n.降雨;降雨量;
And you might think that we could also see it in the clouds . 你可能会认为,我们也能 在云朵上看到改变。
in the clouds:心不在焉;在云层中;
But here's something else unfortunate: clouds are really hard to see. 但还有件不幸的事: 云朵真的很难看见。
I see everybody from the Pacific Northwest is like, "I have some suggestions for you." 我看见来自太平洋西北地区的每个人 都像在说:「我想给你些建议。」
Northwest:adj.西北的;来自西北的;n.西北;adv.在西北;来自西北;
(Laughter) （笑声）
And you guys, we have tried looking up. 各位,我们有试过抬头向上看了。
(Laughter) （笑声）
But in order to do climate science, we need to see all of the clouds, everywhere, for a very long time. 但为了要做气候科学, 我们得要看见各处的所有云朵, 且持续很长一段时间。
And that's what makes it hard. 那就是困难之处。
Now, nothing sees more clouds than a satellite -- not even a British person. 现在,能看见最多云朵的就是衞星, 连英国人都看不到那么多。
(Laughter) （笑声）
And fortunately , we do have satellite observations of clouds that, like me, date back to the 1980s. 幸运的是,我们的确有 卫星观测云朵的资料, 就像我,可追溯到 1980 年代。
fortunately:adv.幸运地; observations:n.观察,观察值;观察结果;(observation的复数形式); date back to:追溯到;从…开始有;
But these satellites were designed for weather, not climate. 但这些卫星是为了天气设计的, 不是气候。
They weren't in it for the long haul . 它们无法持久。
long haul:adj.长途的;长运距的;长时间的;
So to get that long-term trend information, we need to do climate science. 若要取得长期趋势的资讯, 我们必须要做气候科学。
long-term:adj.长期的;从长远来看; trend:n.趋势;动向;趋向;动态;v.走向;趋向;
We have to stitch together the output of multiple satellites with different viewing angles and orbits and carrying different camera equipment. 我们得把不同视角、运行轨道, 带着不同照相设备的多个卫星 所输出的资料结合起来。
stitch:n.针脚,线迹;一针;vt.缝,缝合;vi.缝,缝合; multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数; orbits:n.[天][航]轨道(orbit的复数); v.环绕…的轨道运行;
And as a result ,there are gaps in our knowledge. 而结果和我们的知识有差距。
as a result:结果; gaps:n.差异,缺口;缝隙(gap的复数形式);v.裂开;使豁裂(gap的第三人称单数形式);
But even from this very cloudy picture, we're starting to get hints of a possible future. 但即使是从这像多云一样 非常朦胧的状况中, 我们也开始得到些关于 可能发生之未来的暗示。
hints:n.暗示,提示(hint的复数形式);v.暗示,示意(hint的单三形式);
When we looked at the observations, one thing jumped out at us: the clouds are moving. 当我们看这些观测资料时, 有一点引起了我们的注意: 云朵在移动。
As the planet's temperature increases, high clouds rise up. 随着地球温度上升, 高云会上升。
They move to the colder upper reaches of the atmosphere, and this means that even as the planet heats up, high clouds don't. 它们移向大气中更上层更冷的地方, 这意味着,即使地球在变暖, 高云却不会。
They remain at roughly the same temperature. 它们的温度大致上维持相同。
roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地;
So they are not losing more heat to space. 所以它们并没有散失更多热到太空。
But at the same time, they're trapping more heat from the warming planet below. 但同时却圈住了更多 在下方暖化中的地球的热能。
trapping:v.使陷入困境;卡住;夹住;收集;吸收;(trap的现在分词)
This intensifies the greenhouse effect. 这会让温室效应加剧。
intensifies:v.加剧;强化;使尖锐(intensify的第三人称单数形式);
High clouds are making global warming worse. 高云会让全球暖化的情况更糟。
Clouds are moving in other dimensions , too. 云朵也向其他维度移动。
dimensions:n.规模,大小;
The atmospheric circulation , that large-scale motion of air and water in the atmosphere, is changing, and clouds are going with it. 大气环流, 大气中空气和水的大规模移动 正在改变, 而云朵也随之移动。
atmospheric:adj.大气的,大气层的; circulation:n.流通,传播;循环;发行量; large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的; motion:n.动作;移动;手势;请求;意向;议案;v.运动;打手势;
On large scales, clouds seem to be moving from the tropics toward the poles . 大规模来看, 云朵似乎是从热带移向极地。
tropics:n.热带地区; poles:n.极点(pole的复数形式);雪杖;杆位次数;
It's kind of like your grandparents in reverse . 这有点像是你的祖父母返老还童。
reverse:n.反面; v.颠倒; adj.相反的;
And this matters, because if your job is to block incoming sunlight, you are going to be much more effective in the tropics under that intense tropical sun than you are in higher latitudes . 这有其重要性, 因为如果你要阻挡太阳光射进来, 你身在热带会有效许多, 热带的太阳非常强烈, 在较高的纬度就比较没效。
incoming:n.进来;收入;adj.新当选的;新任的; intense:adj.强烈的;紧张的;非常的;热情的; tropical:adj.热带的;热情的;酷热的; latitudes:n.[地理]纬度,某一纬度地区(latitude的复数形式);
So if this keeps up, this will also make global warming worse. 所以如果继续这样下去, 这也会让全球暖化再恶化。
And what we have not found, despite years of looking, is any indication of the opposite. 尽管花了数年在寻找, 我们仍然尚未发现 任何显示相反情况的征兆。
despite:prep.尽管,不管;n.轻视;憎恨;侮辱; indication:n.显示;表明;标示;象征;
There is no observational evidence that clouds will substantially slow down global warming. 观察到的证据未能证明 云朵在本质上能减缓全球暖化。
observational:adj.观测的;根据观察的; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; substantially:adv.实质上;大体上;充分地;
The earth is not going to break its own fever. 地球并不会治好它自己的发烧。
Now, there are still uncertainties here. 这里仍然有着不确定性。
uncertainties:n.[数]不确定性;不确定因素(uncertainty的复数);
We don't know for sure what the future holds. 我们不能确定 未来会怎样。
But we are sending our kids there,and they are never coming back. 但我们的孩子正朝向未来的不归路。
I want them to be prepared for what they'll face, and that is why it is so important to keep our earth-observing satellites up there and to hire diverse and smart and talented people who do not hate clouds to improve the climate models. 我警告他们,对将要 面临的状况要有心理准备, 因此,非常重要的事就是要让那些 观察地球的卫星能继续在天上运行, 并要雇用多样化、聪明有才华的人, 不讨厌云朵的人, 来改善气候模型。
diverse:adj.不同的;多种多样的;变化多的; improve:v.改进;改善;
But uncertainty is not ignorance . 但不确定性并不等同无知。
ignorance:n.无知,愚昧;不知,不懂;
We don't know everything, but we don't know nothing, and we know what carbon dioxide does. 我们并非全知, 但也不是全然无知, 且我们知道二氧化碳的影响。
I started my career as an astrophysicist , so you can believe me when I say that this is the greatest place in the universe. 我最初的职業是天体物理学家, 所以你们可以相信我, 我说这里是宇宙中最棒的地方。
career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历; astrophysicist:n.天体物理学家;
Other planets might have liquid water. 其他的星球可能有液态水。
On earth, we have whiskey . 在地球,我们有威士忌。
whiskey:n.威士忌酒;adj.威士忌酒的;
(Laughter) （笑声）
(Applause) （掌声）
We are so lucky to live here, but let's not push our luck. 我们如此有幸能住在这里, 但不要得寸进尺以为好运会长久。
I don't think that clouds will save the planet. 我不认为云朵能拯救地球。
I think that's probably up to us. 拯救地球的责任可能要由我们承担。
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （掌声）