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JonasEliasson_2012X-_如何解决交通拥堵_
Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion , namely road congestion. 嗨,我要在这里谈谈拥堵问题 我指的是道路堵塞。
congestion:n.拥挤;拥塞;充血; namely:adv.也就是;即是;换句话说;
Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon . 道路堵塞普遍存在。
pervasive:adj.普遍的;到处渗透的;流行的; phenomenon:n.现象;杰出的人;非凡的人(或事物);
It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world, which is a little bit surprising when you think about it. 世界上几乎所有的城市都存在这个问题 斟酌之下这是挺奇怪的事
basically:adv.主要地,基本上;
I mean, think about how different cities are, actually. 我的意思是,想想每个城市实际上有多大的差别。
I mean, you have the typical European cities, with a dense urban core , good public transportation mostly, not a lot of road capacity . 我是说,既有那些典型的欧洲城市 那里有高密度的中心城区,大部分有良好的公交体系 但道路容量并不充足
typical:adj.典型的;特有的;象征性的; dense:adj.稠密的;浓厚的;愚钝的; urban:adj.城市的;都市的;城镇的;都市音乐的; core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核; transportation:n.运输;运输系统;运输工具;流放; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力;
But then, on the other hand , you have the American cities. 另一边厢,还有美式都会
on the other hand:另一方面;
It's moving by itself, okay. 基本上都以自驾车为主,对吧。
Anyway, the American cities: lots of roads dispersed over large areas, almost no public transportation. 不管怎样,在美式城市里 公路系统覆盖大部分地区, 公交系统几乎是不存在的。
dispersed:adj.散布的;被分散的;被驱散的;v.分散;传播(disperse的过去分词);
And then you have the emerging world cities, with a mixed variety of vehicles , mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed but often with a very dense urban core. 此外还有新兴世界的城市 那里各式交通工具并存, 土地利用模式丰富多样,而且分布广泛 但是通常中心区的密度极高。
emerging:adj.新兴的;v.出现,浮现,露出;暴露;(emerge的现在分词) variety:n.多样;种类;杂耍;变化,多样化; vehicles:n.车辆;飞行器;运行工具;(vehicles是vehicle的复数) land-use:土地利用;
And traffic planners all around the world have tried lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities, lots of roads or lots of public transport or lots of bike lanes or more information, or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work. 世界各地的交通规划者都曾尝试 许多不同的方式:集中化城市或是分散化城市, 大量道路或是大量公交, 又或者是大量自行车道或提供更多的信息, 还有许多不同的尝试,可惜看起来都不太见效。
planners:n.规划师;规划人员(planner的复数);计划人员; public transport:n.公共交通;公交车辆; lanes:n.线路,跑道(lane复数形式);
But all of these attempts have one thing in common. 但是以上尝试有一个共同点。
attempts:n.企图,试图;尝试(attempt的复数);v.试图;努力去做(attempt的三单形式);
They're basically attempts at figuring out what people should do instead of rush hour car driving. 就是基本上他们都是试着搞清楚 除了车流高峰出行外人们应该做什么。
rush hour:n.交通拥挤时间;高峰时刻;adj.高峰时刻的;
They're essentially , to a point, attempts at planning what other people should do, planning their life for them. 简而言之,他们都是尝试规划 他人应该做的事情,为他们规划生活。
essentially:adv.本质上;本来;
Now, planning a complex social system is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story. 现在,规划一个复杂的社会系统 是件相当困难的事,我来讲个故事好了。
complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, an urban planner in London got a phone call from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically, "Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know, who's in charge of London's bread supply?" 早在1989年,当柏林围墙倒塌的时候, 一个伦敦的城市规划师接到一通电话, 是莫斯科的同事打来的,大意是 “喂,我是Vladimir。我想知道, 伦敦的面包供应是由谁负责的？“
colleague:n.同事,同僚; in charge of:负责;主管;
And the urban planner in London goes, "What do you mean, who's in charge of London's ?? 伦敦的那位规划师回答道 ”你问的是什么意思？是谁负责伦敦的...
I mean, no one is in charge." 我是说,这个没有负责。“
'"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge. ”哦,但总得有个人拍板的吧。
I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this." 我是说,这是一个非常复杂的系统。总得有人来管才行啊。”
complicated:adj.复杂的;难懂的;v.使复杂化;(complicate的过去分词和过去式)
'"No. No. No one is in charge. “不,不,不,没人管的。
I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it. 我是说,基本上...我从没想过这个问题。
It basically organizes itself." 基本上它是自发组织起来的。“
organizes:v.组织;筹备;安排;处理;分配;(organize的第三人称单数)
It organizes itself. 自发组织。
That's an example of a complex social system which has the ability of self-organizing , and this is a very deep insight . 这就是复杂却 能够自我组织的复杂社会系统的例子。 而这极富启发性。
self-organizing:n.[计]自组织; insight:n.洞察力;洞悉;
When you try to solve really complex social problems, the right thing to do is most of the time to create the incentives . 当你要解决真正复杂的社会问题的时候, 大多数情况下,正确的做法 应该是创造激励机制。
incentives:n.激励;奖励;诱因(incentive的复数形式);奖励措施;
You don't plan the details, and people will figure out what to do, how to adapt to this new framework. 并不需要去设计细枝末节, 人们自会 知道如何适应新的架构。
adapt:vt.使适应;改编;vi.适应;
And let's now look at how we can use this insight to combat road congestion. 现在我们来看看这个指导思想 如何能帮我们解决拥堵的问题。
combat:v.战斗;防止;减轻;与…搏斗;n.战斗;搏斗;打仗;
This is a map of Stockholm , my hometown. 这是我的家乡,斯德哥尔摩的地图。
Stockholm:n.斯德哥尔摩(瑞典首都);
Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people, but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges -- which means lots of road congestion. 如今斯德哥尔摩是一个中等规模城市,大概有两百万人口, 同时斯德哥尔摩也是水道纵横的城市, 水多桥也多,各种狭窄的,历史久远的桥梁... 而道路拥堵也就随之而来。
medium-sized:adj.中型的,中等大小的;普通型的; roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分;
And these red dots show the most congested parts, which are the bridges that lead into the inner city . 图上的红点标出了最拥堵的路段, 都是通往市内的方向的桥梁.上
congested:adj.堵塞的,拥挤的;v.挤满;超负荷(congest的过去分词); inner city:n.(居民拥挤,住屋破旧的)市中心平民区;adj.市中心的;
And then someone came up with the idea that, apart from good public transport, apart from spending money on roads, let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks . 于是有人想出了这样一个点子, 不是良好的公共交通, 不是花钱修路, 而是试着收取这些交通瓶颈的司机缴纳一两欧的费用。
spending money:n.零花钱;零用钱; euros:n.欧元;欧洛斯风;带雨东南暴风(euro复数); bottlenecks:n.[包装]瓶颈(bottleneck的复数);
Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money, 现在的一两欧只是个小钱,
I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc., so you would probably expect that car drivers wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge. 我是说相对停车以及保养等费用而言, 所以你大概以为 司机不会对这么点小钱有什么反应。
compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词) react:v.起反应;回应;(对食物等)有不良反应,过敏;起化学反应; fairly:adv.相当地;公平地;简直;
You would be wrong. 你错了。
One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars disappear from rush hours. 仅仅一两欧就足以让20％ 的车辆避开行车高峰。
disappear:v.消失;失踪;不复存在;
Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think, but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right? 你可能会说20％虽然已经是个不错的数字, 可是还有余下的80％没解决,对吧？
Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic. 因为还有80％的车辆在车流当中。
Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that once you reach above a certain capacity threshold then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly. 你又错了,因为路况 恰巧是个非线性的现象,也就是说 当流量达到某个阙值 拥堵情况就开始加剧并迅速恶化。
nonlinear:adj.非线性的; threshold:n.入口;门槛;开始;极限;临界值;
But fortunately , it also works the other way around. 不过幸运的是,反过来也是成立的。
fortunately:adv.幸运地;
If you can reduce traffic even somewhat , then congestion will go down much faster than you might think. 只要流量有某种程度的降低,拥堵现象的 缓解会比想象中快得多。
somewhat:n.几分;某物;adv.有点;多少;几分;稍微;
Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2. 斯德哥尔摩的交通拥堵费是从 2006年1月3日开始征收的,这里的第一张图 是1月2日拍到的典型的斯德哥尔摩街道的照片。
The first day with the congestion charges looked like this. 交通拥堵费实施的首日,拍得的照片是这样的。
This is what happens when you take away 20 percent of the cars from the streets. 当你排除了20%的车辆时 街道是这个样子的。
You really reduce congestion quite substantially . 拥堵的状况确实得到了很大的缓解。
substantially:adv.实质上;大体上;充分地;
But, well, as I said , I mean, car drivers adapt, right? 正如我提到的,司机们能适应,对吧？
as I said:正如我所说的
So after a while they would all come back because they have sort of gotten used to charges. 那过了一段时间以后,他们就会回到路上 因为他们已经习惯了收费。
Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm, and we basically have the same low traffic levels still. 又错了。今天,在斯德哥尔摩 交通拥堵费已经施行了六年半了, 基本上路况能一直保持同样的较低拥堵水平。
But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series in 2007. 但是,你看,在2007年 有一个有趣的插曲。
gap:n.差距;间隙;缺口;间隔;v.使豁裂;豁开; series:n.系列,连续;[电]串联;级数;丛书;
Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges, they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced in January and then abolished again at the end of July, 事情是这样的,交通拥堵费, 一开始是试验性质的, 一月份开始推广,七月底在一次公投后取消了,
abolished:adj.废除的;v.彻底废除;摧毁(abolish的过去分词);
followed by a referendum , and then they were reintroduced again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity. 在2007年再度收取, 这当然是一次难得的科学实验的机会。
referendum:n.公民投票权;外交官请示书; reintroduced:vt.再引入;再提出;再介绍; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的;
I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with, and we actually got to do it twice. 我是说,这本身就是一个很有趣的实验, 而且我们有机会做了两次。
And personally , I would like to do this every once a year or so, but they won't let me do that. 对我个人而言,我巴不得年把两年就能重做一次, 不过这会让他们随时受不了的。
personally:adv.个人;亲自;本人;就本人而言;
But it was fun anyway. 不管怎样这也十分有趣。
So, we followed up. What happened? 于是,我们进行了跟踪。情况如何呢？
This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31, and you see the same street but now it's summer, and summer in Stockholm is a very nice and light time of the year, and the first day without the congestion charges looked like this. 这是引进交通拥堵费的最后一天,7月31日, 你看到的是相同的街道,但这是在夏天, 夏天是斯德哥尔摩一年中 非常美好而轻松的季节, 废除交通拥堵费后的第一天 看起来是这个样子的。
All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly. 所有的车都回来了,不得不佩服这些司机, 他们反应神速。
extremely:adv.非常,极其;极端地;
The first day they all came back. 第一天就都回来了。
And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this. 这个情况一直持续着。所以到了2007年,是这样的。
hanged:v.悬挂;吊;垂下;垂落;(hang的过去分词和过去式)
Now these traffic figures are really exciting and a little bit surprising and very useful to know, but I would say that the most surprising slide here 这些交通画面实在让人兴奋 还有些让人吃惊,并且还让人深受启发, 可是我要说,今天我要给大家展示的
I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one. 最让人惊讶的画面不是这张。而是这一张。
This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm, and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it. 它显示了公众对于在斯德哥尔摩征收交通拥堵费的支持, 而当这项收费在2006年春天 刚刚开始施行的时候,大家是强烈反对的。
fiercely:adv.猛烈地;厉害地;
Seventy percent of the population didn't want this. 70%的人都反对。
But what happened when the congestion charges were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more. 但是收费实施以后 人们并没有像预期中那样越来越讨厌这个举措。
No, on the contrary , they changed, up to a point where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges, meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that: 70 percent of the population in Stockholm want to keep a price for something that used to be free. 相反的,他们的想法从某种程度上来说来了个大逆转, 现在70%的人是继续收费的支持者。 也就是说,让我重复一次: 斯德哥尔摩中70%的人口 同意对某项过去免费的东西来继续收费。
on the contrary:正相反;
Okay. So why can that be? Why is that? OK 这怎么可能呢？是为什么呢？
Well, think about it this way. Who changed? 想想看,是谁改变了呢？
I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared , surely they must be discontent in a way. 我是说,20%的司机没有上路, 他们肯定有点不乐意吧。
disappeared:adj.消失的;消失了的;v.消失,失踪;(disappear的过去式和过去分词) discontent:n.不满;adj.不满的;vt.使不满;
And where did they go? If we can understand this, then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this. 他们去哪里了呢？如果我们能了解这点, 那也许就能弄清楚为什么人们对这个满意。
Well, so we did this huge interview survey with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out who changed, and where did they go? 于是我们做了这个大型的问卷调查, 针对各种交通服务,以尝试了解 是谁变了,他们去了哪里？
interview:n.接见,采访;面试,面谈;v.采访;接见;对…进行面谈; survey:n.调查;测量;审视;纵览;vt.调查;勘测;俯瞰;vi.测量土地;
And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter) 结果他们自己也搞不清楚（笑声)。
For some reason, the car drivers are -- they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do. 不知道为什么,司机们 都自信满满地说自己实际上还是如从前一样驾驶。
confident:adj.自信的;确信的;
And why is that? It's because that travel patterns are much less stable than you might think. 这是为什么呢？因为驾驶模式 并不像你想象中那么死板。
stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房;
Each day, people make new decisions, and people change and the world changes around them, and each day all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly away from rush hour car driving in a way that people don't even notice. 每天,人们都会做出新的决定,而人们 和他们所处的世界也都在改变,每天 这些决定其实随时都在微调 以避开车流高峰出行, 而人们往往都没有意识到。
nudged:n.推动; vt.推进; vi.轻推; slightly:adv.些微地,轻微地;纤细地;
They're not even aware of this themselves. 哪怕是他们自己。
And the other question, who changed their mind? 另外一个问题是,是谁改变了他们的想法呢？
Who changed their opinion, and why? 谁让他们改变了主意,而且为什么会改变呢？
So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds? 于是我们做了另外一个调查,试着了解 人们为什么改变主意,哪一些人改变了主意？
And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds. 分析结果显示 有超过一半的人认为 自己的想法并没有改变。
analyzing:adj.分析的;v.分析(analyze的现在分词);
They're actually confident that they have liked congestion pricing all along. 他们都自以为本来 就是收取交通拥堵费的支持者。
Which means that we are now in a position where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers, 所以,现在的实际情况是 我们把堵点的交通流量降低了20％, 从而极大减少了拥堵的状况,
toll:n.伤亡人数; v.(缓慢而有规律地)敲(钟); (尤指)鸣(丧钟); cordon:n.警戒线,封锁线;v.以警戒线分隔或包围; enormous:adj.庞大的,巨大的;凶暴的,极恶的;
and people aren't even aware that they have changed, and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along. 而人们竟浑然不知自己的行为已经产生了变化, 而且他们真心诚意认为自己一开始就是支持的。
This is the power of nudges when trying to solve complex social problems, and when you do that, you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt. 这就是微小的推动力在解决 复杂的社会问题中妙用,而当你利用它的时候, 不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。
nudges:轻推;说服;轻轻的推动;好言说服;轻轻地推动;
You should just nudge them in the right direction. 只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。
And if you do it right, people will actually embrace the change, and if you do it right, people will actually even like it. 如果你做对了, 人们就会接受这种变化, 如果做好了,人们甚至可能喜欢上它。
embrace:n.拥抱,怀抱;v.拥抱;乐意采纳(思想、建议等);信奉;包括;
Thank you. (Applause) 谢谢。(掌声)