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JohanRockstrom_2020T-_用_10_年改变人类的未来——还是破坏地球的稳定_-
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| (Beeps) |
[倒计时] |
| [Countdown] |
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| (Clapboard claps) |
（打板声） |
| Ten years is a long time for us humans on earth. |
十年对我们地球上的人类来说很长, |
| Ten turns around the sun. |
相当于绕太阳公转十圈。 |
| When I was on the TED stage a decade ago, |
十年前,当我站在 TED 讲台上时, |
| I talked about planetary boundaries that keep our planet in a state that allowed humanity to prosper . |
我谈到了地球上的边界, 它们能使我们的地球 保持在一种让人类繁荣的状态。 |
| The main point is that once you transgress one, the risks start multiplying . |
重点是一旦你越界, 风险就会开始倍增。 |
| The planetary boundaries are all deeply connected, but climate, alongside biodiversity , are core boundaries. |
地球的边界都是紧密相连的, 但是气候和生物多样性是边界之核心, |
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planetary:adj.行星的; boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数) humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; prosper:v.繁荣;成功;发达;兴旺; transgress:vt.违反;侵犯;犯罪;vi.违反;违法;越界; multiplying:n.繁殖;adj.乘法的;v.乘;繁殖;增加(multiply的ing形式); biodiversity:n.生物多样性; core:n.核心;要点;果心;[计]磁心;vt.挖...的核;
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| They impact on all others. |
它们会影响到其余一切。 |
| Back then we really thought we had more time. |
当时,我们真的以为我们有更多的时间, |
| The warning lights were on, absolutely , but no unstoppable change had been triggered . |
警示灯的确是亮着, 但没有引发不可阻挡的变化。 |
| Since my talk, we have increasing evidence that we are rapidly moving away from the safe operating space for humanity on earth. |
自从我的演讲以来, 我们有越来越多的证据表明, 我们正迅速远离地球上 人类的安全活动空间。 |
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impact:n.影响;效果;碰撞;冲击力;v.挤入,压紧;撞击;对…产生影响; absolutely:adv.绝对地;完全地; unstoppable:adj.无法阻碍的;无法停止的(副词unstoppably); triggered:v.发动;引起;触发;开动;起动;(trigger的过去分词和过去式) evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明;
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| Climate has reached a global crisis point. |
气候已经到了全球危机的地步。 |
| We have now had 10 years of record-breaking climate extremes : fires blaze in Australia, Siberia , California and the Amazon , floods in China, Bangladesh and India. |
十年来,极端气候的纪录不断被打破。 肆虐于澳大利亚、西伯利亚、 加利福尼亚和亚马逊的大火, 以及中国、孟加拉国 和印度的洪水。 |
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global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; record-breaking:adj.破纪录的;n.破纪录; extremes:n.极端不同的感情;极端;极度;极限;(extreme的复数) blaze:vt.在树皮上刻路标; n.火焰,烈火; vi.燃烧; Siberia:n.西伯利亚; Amazon:亚马逊;古希腊女战士;
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| We're now enduring heat waves across the entire northern hemisphere . |
我们现在正经历着 |
| We risk crossing tipping points that shift the planet from being our best resilient friend, dampening our impacts , to start working against us, amplifying the heat. |
我们冒着跨越临界点的风险, 将地球从我们最好的朋友—— 它能抵御冲击, 转变为开始与我们作对的朋友—— 它加剧升温。 |
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enduring:adj.持久的;耐久的;v.忍耐;忍受;持续;持久;(endure的现在分词) hemisphere:n.半球; tipping:n.倾卸台;adj.倾翻的;倾卸的;v.使倾斜;轻拍;踮起脚走(tip的现在分词); shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换; resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的; dampening:n.回潮,润湿;v.抑制(dampen的ing形式);弄湿;消沉; impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用; amplifying:adj.放大的;
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| For the first time, we are forced to consider the real risk of destabilizing the entire planet. |
我们第一次被迫考虑 破坏整个地球稳定的真正风险。 |
| Our children can see this. |
我们的孩子可以看到这一点。 |
| They are walking out of school to demand action, looking with disbelief at our inability to deviate away from potentially catastrophic risks. |
他们罢课要求采取行动, 怀疑我们无法摆脱 潜在的灾难性风险。 |
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destabilizing:v.使动摇;使不稳定;(destabilize的现在分词) disbelief:n.怀疑,不信; inability:n.无能力;无才能; deviate:vi.脱离;越轨;vt.使偏离; potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; catastrophic:adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的;
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| The next 10 years, to 2030, must see the most profound transformation the world has ever known. |
直至 2030 年的未来十年, 必须发生世界有史以来 |
| This is our mission . |
这是我们的使命。 |
| This is the countdown . |
这就是倒计时。 |
| (Clock ticks) |
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| When my scientific colleagues summarized , about a decade ago, for the first time, the state of knowledge on climate tipping points, just one place had strong evidence that it was on a serious downward spiral . |
大约十年前,当我的科学家同事 第一次 总结关于 气候临界点的知识状况时, 只有一个地方有确凿证据表明[02:10] |
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profound:adj.深厚的;意义深远的;渊博的; transformation:n.转变;(用于南非)民主改革; mission:n.使命,任务;代表团;布道;v.派遣;向…传教; countdown:n.倒数计秒; scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; colleagues:n.同事;同行(colleague的复数); summarized:v.总结,概括;概述(summarize的过去式及过去分词形式); downward:adj.下降的;向下的;adv.同"downwards"; spiral:n.螺旋;旋涡;螺旋形之物;adj.螺旋形的;v.使成螺旋形;vi.盘旋;螺旋形上升;
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| Arctic sea ice. (Water sounds) |
北极海冰 （船机轰鸣） |
| Other tipping points were long way off -- 50 or 100 turns around the sun. |
我们离其他的临界点还很远, 至少还要等公绕太阳转 50 或 100 圈。 |
| Just last year we revisited these systems, and I got the shock of my career . |
就在去年,我们重新查看了这些系统, 我受到了我职业生涯最大的冲击。 |
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Arctic:adj.北极的;北极地区的;极冷的;严寒的;n.北极;北极地区; revisited:vt.重游;再访;重临;n.再访问; career:n.职业;事业;生涯;经历;
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| We are only a few decades away from an Arctic without sea ice in summer. |
我们离夏天没有海冰的北极 |
| In Siberia, permafrost is now thawing at dramatic scales . |
在西伯利亚, 永久冻土正以惊人的规模消融; |
| Greenland is losing trillions of tons of ice and may be approaching a tipping point . |
格陵兰岛正在失去数万亿吨的冰, 并可能接近临界点; |
| The great forests of the North are burning with plumes of smoke the size of Europe. |
北方的大森林燃烧着 相当于欧洲大小的烟雾; |
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permafrost:n.永久冻土,永久冻地;永久冻结带;永久冰冻; thawing:n.融化;熔化;v.融化(thaw的ing形式); dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的; scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数) trillions:n.[数]万亿;adj.万亿的;num.[数]万亿; approaching:v.靠近,接近;接洽;建议;要求;(approach的现在分词) tipping point:n.(个案积累终成大趋势的)引爆点; plumes:羽状物;
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| The Atlantic ocean circulation is slowing. |
大西洋环流正在放缓; |
| The Amazon rainforest is weakening and may start emitting carbon within 15 years. |
亚马逊雨林正在减弱, 可能在 15 年内开始排放碳; |
| Half of the coral of the Great Barrier Reef has died. |
大堡礁一半的珊瑚已经死亡了。 |
| West Antarctica may have crossed the tipping point already today. |
今天,南极洲西部可能已经 |
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Atlantic:adj.大西洋的;巨人阿特拉斯的;n.大西洋; circulation:n.流通,传播;循环;发行量; rainforest:n.(热带)雨林; weakening:v.(使)虚弱;减弱;动摇;犹豫;(weaken的现在分词) emitting:v.发出,射出,散发(光、热、声音、气等);(emit的现在分词) carbon:n.[化学]碳;碳棒;复写纸;adj.碳的;碳处理的; coral:n.珊瑚;珊瑚虫;adj.珊瑚的;珊瑚色的; Barrier Reef:n.堡礁(近海岸的珊瑚礁);
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| And now, the most solid of glaciers on earth, East Antarctica, parts of it are becoming unstable . |
现在,地球上最坚固的冰川 南极洲东部的部分冰川 正在变得不稳定。 |
| Nine out of the 15 big biophysical systems that regulate climate are now on the move , showing worrying signs of decline and potentially approaching tipping points. |
调节气候的 15 大生物物理系统中 显示出令人担忧的下降迹象, 并可能接近临界点。 |
| Tipping points bring three threats. |
临界点会带来三个威胁。 |
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glaciers:n.[地理][水文]冰川(glacier的复数);[地理][水文]冰河; unstable:adj.不稳定的;变化莫测的;(行为、情绪)反复无常的 biophysical:生物物理学的; regulate:v.调节;控制; on the move:在活动中,在进行中;四处奔波; decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
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| First, sea level rise. |
第一,海平面上升。 |
| We can already expect up to one meter this century. |
本世纪我们已经可以预计到一米, |
| This will endanger the homes of 200 million people. |
这将危及两亿人的家园。 |
| But when we add the melting ice from Antarctica and Greenland into the equation , this might lead to a two meter rise. |
但是,当我们把南极洲 和格陵兰岛融化的冰加入方程时, 这可能会导致两米的上升, |
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sea level:海平面; endanger:v.使遭危险;危及;危害; melting:adj.感人的;v.(使)熔化,融化;(melt的现在分词) equation:n.方程式,等式;相等;[化学]反应式;
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| But it won't stop there, it will keep on getting worse. |
但不会就此停止,它会继续恶化。 |
| Second, if our carbon stores like permafrost and forest flip to belching carbon, then this makes the job of stabilizing temperatures so much harder. |
第二,如果我们的碳储存, 如永久冻土和森林转变为排放碳, 那么稳定气温的工作 |
| And third, these systems are all linked like dominoes : |
第三,这些系统都像 多米诺骨牌一样息息相关。 |
| If you cross one tipping point, you lurch closer to others. |
如果你越过了一个临界点, 你就会向其他临界点靠拢。 |
| Let's stop for a moment and look at where we are. |
让我们停一会儿,看看我们在哪里。 |
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flip:n.浏览;空翻;轻抛;捻掷;v.迅速翻动;按(开关);按(按钮);开(或关)(机器等); belching:n.[内科]嗳气;v.喷射(belch的现在分词); dominoes:n.多米诺骨牌(效应);牙齿;骰子(domino的复数); lurch:n.突然倾斜;蹒跚;挫折;vi.倾斜;蹒跚;vt.击败;
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| The foundation of our civilization is a stable climate and a rich diversity of life. |
我们文明的基础是稳定的气候 和丰富多样的生活。 |
| Everything, I mean everything, is based on this. |
一切,所有一切都是基于此。 |
| Civilization has thrived in a Goldilocks zone: not too hot, not too cold. |
文明在一个宜居带蓬勃发展, 不能太热,也不能太冷。 |
| This is what we have had for 10,000 years since we left the last ice age. |
这就是我们距离上一个 |
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foundation:n.基础;地基;基金会;根据;创立; civilization:n.文明;文明社会;文明世界;(特定时期和地区的)社会文明; thrived:v.兴盛,繁荣(thrive的过去式和过去分词形式); Goldilocks:n.金发姑娘,金凤花;
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| Let's zoom out a little here. |
让我们把这里放大一点。 |
| Three million years -- temperatures have never broken through the two degrees Celsius limit. |
300 万年来, 气温从未突破 两摄氏度的极限。 |
| Earth has self-regulated within a very narrow range of plus two degrees in a warm interglacial , minus four degrees, deep ice age. |
地球在一个非常狭窄的 范围内进行自我调节, 即在温暖的间冰期加两度, 深冰期减四度。 |
| Now, we are following a path that would take us to a three to four degree world in just three generations. |
我们而今正沿着一条道路前进, 这条道路将在仅三代人的时间里 把我们带到一个三到四度的世界。 |
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Celsius:adj.摄氏的;n.摄氏度; narrow:adj.狭窄的; v.使窄小; n.峡谷; (场所,物品等的)狭窄部分; interglacial:adj.间冰期的; minus:prep.减,减去;n.负号,减号;不足;负数;adj.减的;负的;
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| We would be rewinding the climate clock, not one million, not two million, but five to 10 million years. |
我们倒转的气候时钟,不是 100 万年, 不是 200 万年, 而是 500 万到 1000 万年。 |
| We are drifting towards hot-house earth. |
我们正朝着温室地球漂移。 |
| For each one degree rise, one billion people will be forced to live in conditions that we today largely consider uninhabitable . |
每上升一度, 就会有十亿人被迫生活在 我们今天认为不适宜居住的环境中, |
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rewinding:v.重绕(磁带等);倒带;倒片;(rewind的现在分词) drifting:v.漂流;漂移;缓慢行走;顺其自然地做;(drift的现在分词) largely:adv.主要地;大部分;大量地; uninhabitable:adj.不适宜居住的;
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| This is not a climate emergency , it is a planetary emergency. |
这不是气候紧急情况。 |
| My fear is not that Earth will fall over a cliff on the 1st of January, 2030. |
我担心的不是 2030 年 1 月 1 日 地球会掉下悬崖。 |
| My fear is that we press unstoppable buttons in the Earth system. |
我担心的是我们按下了 |
| What happens in the next 10 years will likely determine the state of the planet we hand over for future generations. |
未来十年发生的事情 可能会决定我们留给后代的 地球状况。 |
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emergency:n.紧急情况;突发事件;非常时刻;adj.紧急的;备用的; cliff:n.悬崖;绝壁; determine:v.决定;确定;测定;查明;形成;影响;裁决;安排;
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| Our children have every reason to be alarmed. |
我们的孩子完全有理由感到震惊。 |
| We need to get serious about stabilizing our planet. |
我们需要将稳定地球的使命认真对待, |
| Two frontiers will guide this transformation. |
两条战线将引领这一转变。 |
| The first one is in science. |
第一条是在于科学。 |
| Here's a new equation for a sustainable planet: planetary boundaries plus global commons equals planetary stewardship . |
这里有一个可持续地球的新等式, 地球边界,加上全球公域, 等于地球管理。 |
| We need to a safe corridor for humanity to allow us all to become stewards of the entire planet, not to save the planet but to provide a good future for all people. |
我们需要为人类建立一个安全的走廊, 让我们都成为整个地球的管理者, 不是为了拯救地球, |
| And the second frontier is in society. |
第二条战线是在社会。 |
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sustainable:adj.可以忍受的;足可支撑的;养得起的;可持续的; stewardship:n.管理工作;管事人的职位及职责; corridor:n.通道;过道;走廊(一国领土通过他国境内的狭长地带);
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| We need a new economic logic based on well-being . |
我们需要一种 基于福祉的新经济逻辑。 |
| We are now in a position to provide science-based targets for all global commons for all companies and cities in the world. |
我们现在有能力为全球, 为所有企业和城市 |
| First task, we need to cut global emissions by half by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050 or sooner. |
第一项任务,我们需要 在 2030 年前将全球排放量减半, 在 2050 年或更早达到净零排放。 |
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economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; logic:n.逻辑;逻辑学;逻辑性;adj.逻辑的; well-being:n.幸福;康乐; emissions:n.(光、热、气等的)发出,排放;排放物;散发物;(emission的复数)
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| This means decarbonizing the big systems that run our lives: energy, industry, transport , buildings. |
这意味着让我们生活、能源、 工业、交通和建筑的大系统去碳化, |
| The fossil fuel era is over. |
化石燃料时代已经结束。 |
| We need to transform agriculture from a source of emissions to a store of carbon, and critically , we must protect our oceans and land, the natural ecosystems that absorb half of our emissions. |
我们需要将农业从排放源 转变为碳储存源,关键是我们必须 保护我们的海洋和土地, 它们是能吸收我们 一半排放量的自然生态系统。 |
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decarbonizing:v.使脱碳;(decarbonize的现在分词) transport:n.运输;输送;运送;运输机;v.输送;传播;使产生身临其境的感觉;(旧时)流放; fossil fuel:n.化石燃料(如煤或石油); era:n.新时期;纪元;年代;新时代; source:n.来源;水源;原始资料; critically:adv.精密地;危急地;批评性地;用钻研眼光地; ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数); absorb:v.吸收;使并入;吞并;同化;理解;吸收;耗费;承受;
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| The good news is, we can do this. |
好消息是我们可以做到。 |
| We have the knowledge. We have the technology . |
我们有知识,我们有技术。 |
| We know it makes social and economic sense. |
我们知道它有社会和经济意义。 |
| And when we succeed, we can all take lungfuls of fresh air. |
当我们成功时, 我们都能呼吸到新鲜的空气, |
| We will be saying hello to healthy lifestyles and resilient economies in livable cities. |
我们将向宜居城市的健康生活方式 和弹性经济招手。 |
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technology:n.技术;工艺;术语; lungfuls:n.两肺的容量; lifestyles:n.生活方式(lifestyle的复数); economies:n.经济;经济结构;节约;(economy的复数) livable:adj.适于居住的;生活过得有价值的;
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| We are all on this journey around the sun together. |
我们都在一起绕着太阳旅行, |
| This is our only home. |
这是我们唯一的家, |
| This is our mission: to protect our children's future. |
这是我们保护孩子未来的使命。 |
| Thank you. |
谢谢大家。 |
| (Lights click off) |
[07:40] |
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journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行;
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