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JohanRockstroem_2010G-_让环境引导我们的发展_
We live on a human-dominated planet, putting unprecedented pressure on the systems on Earth. 我们生活在一个由人类支配的星球上, 我们将前所未有的压力 压在地球的整个系统上?
unprecedented:adj.空前的;无前例的;
This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you, it's also part of the good news. 这有一个坏消息,但也许会让你吃惊, 这也算是一个好消息?
We're the first generation , thanks to science, to be informed that we may be undermining the stability and the ability of planet Earth to support human development as we know it. 感谢科技进步,我们是第一代 知晓我们可能 正在侵蚀着地球的 稳定性和功能性 来维系人类自身发展。
first generation:adj.出生在美国的;原件第一代; informed:adj.见多识广的; v.通知; (inform的过去分词和过去式) undermining:v.逐渐削弱;使逐步减少效力;从根基处破坏;(undermine的现在分词) stability:n.稳定性;坚定,恒心;
It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing are so large, that business as usual is not an option . 还有一个好消息,因为我们面临的风险 如此之大, 以前的办法已经没有用了。
planetary:adj.行星的; business as usual:na.照常营业; option:n.选择;可选择的东西;
In fact, we're in a phase where transformative change is necessary, which opens the window for innovation , for new ideas and new paradigms . 实际上,我们处在新的阶段 必须采取变革的阶段, 为创新得打开一扇窗, 迎接新想法和新模式。
phase:n.阶段;时期;月相;(月亮的)盈亏;v.分阶段进行;逐步做; transformative:adj.变化的,变形的;有改革能力的; innovation:n.创新,革新;新方法; paradigms:n.范例,模范(paradigm的复数形式);
This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity in the global phase of sustainability . 这是一次人类 关于全球可持续发展面临挑战的科学之旅。
scientific:adj.科学的,系统的; journey:n.旅行;行程;vi.旅行; humanity:n.人类;人道;仁慈;人文学科; global:adj.全球的;总体的;球形的; sustainability:n.持续性;永续性;能维持性;
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves, a good friend, a stakeholder , who's always absent when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues , a stakeholder who refuses to compromise -- planet Earth. 在这趟旅途中,除了你们,我希望带上 一个好朋友, 一位利益相关者但常常被忽视, 当我们处理沟通环境问题时, 一个拒绝妥协的利益相关者 它就是一颗叫做地球的星球。
stakeholder:n.利益相关者;赌金保管者; absent:adj.缺席的;缺少的;心不在焉的;茫然的;v.使缺席; negotiations:n.谈判(negotiation的复数);磋商; issues:n.重要议题;争论的问题;v.宣布;公布;发出;(issue的第三人称单数和复数)
So I thought I'd bring her with me today, on stage, to have her as a witness of a remarkable journey, which humbly reminds us of the period of grace we've had over the past 10,000 years. 我原本想把她带上舞台, 让她亲眼目睹 这非凡的旅途, 同时谨提醒我们 在过去1万年我们所经历过的恩泽 时代。
witness:n.证人;目击者;证据;v.目击;证明;为…作证; remarkable:adj.卓越的;非凡的;值得注意的; humbly:adv.谦逊地;卑贱地;低声下气地; reminds:v.提醒;使想起;(remind的第三人称单数) grace:n.优雅;恩惠;魅力;慈悲;v.使优美;
This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years. 这是一个持续了十万年的生机勃勃的星球。
It's a very important period. 这是一个非常重要的时期。
It's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet. 这几乎持续了我们进化成为现代人类一半的时间。
roughly:adv.粗糙地;概略地;
We've had the same, roughly, abilities that developed civilizations as we know it. 我们也大致拥有同样能力来创造 如大家所知发展了文明。
civilizations:n.文明(civilization的复数形式);
This is the environmental conditions on the planet. 这是目前星球的状况。
Here, used as a proxy , temperature variability . 在这我们用温度变化作为一个参考物。
proxy:n.代理人;委托书;代用品; variability:n.可变性,变化性;[生物][数]变异性;
It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis , we leave Africa, we colonize Australia in another crisis , 60,000 years back, we leave Asia for Europe in another crisis , 40,000 years back, and then we enter the remarkably stable Holocene phase, 上下波动很大。这是八万年前的危机, 我们离开非洲,我们殖民澳洲是 在六万年后的另一次危机中, 我们从亚洲来到欧洲是 在四万年前的危机中, 我们在那时进入了 相当稳定的全新时代,
jumpy:adj.神经质的;跳跃的; crisis:n.危机;危险期;决定性时刻;adj.危机的;用于处理危机的; colonize:vt.将…开拓为殖民地; vi.开拓殖民地; remarkably:adv.非常;极为;格外;出乎意料地 stable:n.马厩;牛棚;adj.稳定的;牢固的;坚定的;vi.被关在马厩;赶入马房; Holocene:adj.全新统的;n.全新世;
the only period in the whole history of the planet, that we know of, that can support human development. 也是地球史上前所未有的时代, 我们知道,可以维系人类发展的时代。
A thousand years into this period, we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns. 在这1千年发展中, 我们放弃了狩猎采集的模式。
abandon:n.狂热;放任;v.遗弃;放弃;
We go from a couple of million people to the seven billion people we are today, 我们从几千万人口 发展到如今的70亿人口,
The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture, we domesticate animals and plants. 美索不达米亚文化:那时我们发明了农业, 我们驯化动物和植物。
domesticate:vt.驯养;教化;引进;vi.驯养;使习惯于或喜爱家务和家庭生活;
You have the Roman , the Greek and the story as you know it. 然后是罗马文明,希腊文明等等众所周知的文明。
Roman:n.罗马人;古罗马语;adj.罗马的;罗马人的;
The only phase, as we know it, that can support humanity. 我们目前知道地球是唯一 适合人类生存发展文明的地方。
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze on this poor planet, a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze , has population growth, of course. 麻烦的是在这个可怜的星球, 我们四面楚歌, 这第一面, 当然是人口增长。
quadruple:v.(使)变为四倍;adj.四方面的;四倍的;n.四倍 squeeze:v.挤;紧握;勒索;压榨;n.压榨;紧握;拥挤;佣金;
Now, this is not only about numbers. 现在不仅是数字上的增长。
This is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well. 不只是70亿到90亿人口这个事实, 还涉及到一个公平性的问题。
committed:adj.坚信的; v.做出错事; (commit的过去分词和过去式) equity:n.公平,公正;衡平法;普通股;抵押资产的净值;
The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet have been caused by the rich minority , the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon in the mid-18th century. 对地球环境产生很大影响的 往往是富裕的少数人, 在18世纪的中期, 百分之二十的人投身于工业革命中。
majority:n.大部分:大多数:多数票:成年人: impacts:n.影响; v.有影响,有作用; minority:n.少数民族;少数派;未成年;adj.少数的;属于少数派的; industrial:adj.工业的,产业的; n.工业股票; bandwagon:n.流行,时尚;乐队花车;
The majority of the planet, aspiring for development, having the right for development, are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle, a momentous pressure. 这星球的大多数国家 渴望发展,有权发展, 但这些国家大多在追求一种地球无法承受的生活方式, 这是一种巨大的压力。
aspiring:adj.渴望从事…的; v.渴望(成就); (aspire的现在分词) unsustainable:adj.无法支撑的;不可证实的;不能成立的; momentous:adj.重要的;重大的;
The second pressure on the planet is, of course, the climate agenda , the big issue, where the policy interpretation of science is that it would be enough to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm to avoid average temperatures exceeding two degrees, to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet , holding 6 meters -- level rising, the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet , holding another seven meters -- sea level rising. 给地球的第二个压力,当然是气候议程, 一个大议题,往往科学影响着政策 有观点认为 将温室气体含量稳定在450ppm 从而避免温度 升高超过2度, 避免我们失去 南极西部的冰盖层融化, 水平面将升高6米的风险, 避免格陵兰冰盖融化的风险, 这会造成海平面再上升7米。
agenda:n.议事日程; policy:n.政策,方针;保险单; interpretation:n.解释;翻译;演出; stabilize:vt.使稳固,使安定;vi.稳定,安定; greenhouse:n.温室;暖房; exceeding:adj.超越的; v.超过(数量); (exceed的现在分词) destabilizing:v.使动摇;使不稳定;(destabilize的现在分词) Antarctic:adj.南极(地方)的;n.南极地区;网络释义:南极的;南极区;南极地带的; Ice Sheet:n.冰原;冰盖; sea level:海平面;
Now, you would have wished the climate pressure to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet, but unfortunately , the third pressure is the ecosystem decline . 现在,你们会指望 这个强大的,能承受强压力的星球来抵御气候压力, 但是,不幸的是,还有第三种压力 是生态系统的衰落。
resilient:adj.弹回的,有弹力的; unfortunately:adv.不幸地; ecosystem:n.生态系统; decline:v.下降;衰退;减少;谢绝;n.下降;
Never have we seen, in the past 50 years, such a sharp decline of ecosystem functions and services on the planet, one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term, in our forests, land and biodiversity . 在过去50年中,我们从没有见过 生态系统在这颗星球上的作用和影响 如此急剧的衰落, 他们当中有种能力是长期调整 影响森林,土地和生物多样性的气候。
sharp:锋利的,尖的 regulate:v.调节;控制; biodiversity:n.生物多样性;
The forth pressure is surprise, the notion and the evidence that we need to abandon our old paradigm, that ecosystems behave linearly , predictably , controllably in our, so to say, linear systems, and that, in fact, surprise is universal , as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly and often irreversibly . 第四种压力是不同性, 概念和证据 那就是我们必须放弃我们老套的模式, 那就是可以这么说,在我们线性系统旧模式中,生态系统表现是线性的,是可以预见的, 是可控制的, 那就是,实际上,不同性就是共同性, 随着系统迅速地,突然地 往往也是不可逆转的破坏。
notion:n.观念;信念;理解; evidence:n.证据,证明;迹象;明显;v.证明; ecosystems:n.生态系统(ecosystem的复数); behave:v.表现;(机器等)运转;举止端正;(事物)起某种作用; linearly:adv.成直线地;在线上地; predictably:adv.可预言地; universal:adj.普遍的;全体的;全世界的;共同的; tip:n.小窍门,小费;v.给…小费;使倾斜; abruptly:adv.突然地;唐突地; irreversibly:adv.不可逆地;
This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet of momentous scale . 亲爱的朋友们,这是对地球大规模地 施加压力。
poses:姿势; scale:n.规模;比例;鳞;刻度;天平;数值范围;v.衡量;攀登;剥落;生水垢;
We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era, the Anthropocene, where humans are the predominant driver of change at a planetary level. 我们可能,实际上,已经进入了一个新的地质时代, 人类世, 指的是人类是在行星级别中造成变化 的主要驱动。
geological:adj.地质的,地质学的; predominant:adj.显著的;明显的;盛行的;占优势的;n.特优生物
Now, as a scientist, what's the evidence for this? 现在,作为一名科学家, 有什么证据呢？
Well, the evidence is, unfortunately, ample . 证据是, 不幸的是,太多了。
ample:adj.丰富的;足够的;宽敞的;
It's not only carbon dioxide that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change. 不仅仅是二氧化碳 极大地加速了变化的进程。
carbon dioxide:二氧化碳; accelerated:v.(使)加速;加速;加快(accelerate的过去分词和过去式)
You can take virtually any parameter that matters for human well-being -- nitrous oxide , methane , deforestation , overfishing land degredation, loss of species -- they all show the same pattern over the past 200 years. 你几乎可以把任何参数 跟人类相关的任何参数-- 一氧化二氮,甲烷, 砍伐森林,过度捕捞, 土地退化,物种的灭绝-- 它们都证明了过去的200年中 同一种模式。
virtually:adv.事实上,几乎;实质上; parameter:n.参数;系数;参量; well-being:n.幸福;康乐; nitrous oxide:n.氧化亚氮; methane:n.[有化]甲烷;[能源]沼气; deforestation:n.采伐森林;森林开伐; overfishing:n.渔捞过度;vt.过度捕捞(overfish的现在分词); species:n.[生物]物种;种类;
Simultaneously , they branch off in the mid-50s, 10 years after the second world war, showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise starts in the mid-50s. 与此同时,在50年代中期, 第二次世界大战后的10年, 非常清楚的证明了在50年代中期伟大的人类事业 开始加速提高。
Simultaneously:adv.同时地; acceleration:n.加速,促进;[物]加速度;
You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level. 你看,第一次,在全球范围内的一个印记。
imprint:n.印记;痕迹;特征;版本说明;vt.加特征;刻上记号;
And I can tell you, you enter the disciplinary research in each of these, you find something remarkably important, the conclusion that we may have come to the point where we have to bend the curves , 我可以告诉你, 当你开始研究这每一个学科, 你会发现一些非常重要的东西, 结果是我们可能已经到达了 必须改变曲线走向程度,
disciplinary:adj.规律的;训练的;训诫的; conclusion:n.结论;结局;推论; come to the point:直截了当地说;扼要地说; curves:n.曲线; v.(使)沿曲线运动; (curve的第三人称单数和复数)
that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade in the history humanity on the planet, the decade when we have to bend the curves. 在地球上整个人类的历史中,我们可能已经进入了 最富有挑战性和刺激性的时代, 一个我们必须改变曲线走向的时代。
Now, as if this was not enough -- to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet -- we also have to recognize the fact that systems do have multiple stable states, 现在,仿佛这还不够-- 仅仅是改变曲线走向和了解到这颗星球上的急剧增加的压力-- 我们也要意识到一个事实 那就是系统有多种稳定状态,
recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到; multiple:adj.数量多的;多种多样的;n.倍数;
separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram, where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system. 在曲线上由一个个槛区分开来--我在这个用球杯图来表示, 杯子的深度代表了系统的适应能力。
thresholds:n.阈值;[建]门槛;临界值值(threshold的复数); illustrated:v.加插图于;给(书等)做图表;说明,解释;(illustrate的过去分词和过去式) resilience:n.恢复力;弹力;顺应力;
Now, the system may gradually -- under pressure of climate change, erosion , biodiversity loss -- lose the depth of the cup, the resilience, but appear to be healthy and appear to suddenly, under a threshold, be tipping over. Upff. 现在,系统逐渐地-- 受到气候变化, 侵蚀,生物多样性丧失的压力-- 于是杯子的深度开始减少,也就是系统适应能力降低, 但似乎是健康的 也似乎是突然间,经过一个槛后, 又跌落到某一界限下了。哦。
gradually:adv.渐渐地;逐步地; erosion:n.侵蚀,腐蚀; tipping:n.倾卸台;adj.倾翻的;倾卸的;v.使倾斜;轻拍;踮起脚走(tip的现在分词);
Sorry. Changing state and literally ending up in an undesired situation, where new biophysical logic takes over, new species take over , and the system gets locked. 抱歉。改变了原有状态 确实滑落到 一个出乎意料的状态, 从那里开始,新的生物物理逻辑开始运作, 新的物种开始出现,系统再次平衡。
literally:adv.按字面:字面上:确实地: undesired:adj.不受欢迎的;不希望得到的,不希望有的; biophysical:生物物理学的; take over:接管;继承;接收;接任;接替;
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems. 我们有证据吗？是的,珊瑚礁系统。
coral:n.珊瑚;珊瑚虫;adj.珊瑚的;珊瑚色的;
Biodiverse , low-nutrient, hard coral systems under multiple pressures of overfishing, unsustainable tourism, climate change. 生物的多样,低养份,硬珊瑚系统 在过渡捕捞, 不可持续的旅游业,气候变化等多重压力下。
Biodiverse:生物多类状态的;生物多样的;
A trigger and the system tips over, loses its resilience, soft corals take over, and we get undesired systems that cannot support economic and social development. 系统的崩溃一触即发, 失去了它的适应能力, 从而软珊瑚取而代之, 留给我们一个我们出乎意料的系统 一个不能维系经济和社会发展的系统。
trigger:n.触发器; v.触发; tips:n.尖端; v.(使)倾斜,翻覆; (tip的第三人称单数和复数) corals:n.[无脊椎]珊瑚(coral的复数); economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的;
The Arctic, a beautiful system, a regulating biome at the planetary level, taking the knock after knock on climate change, appearing to be in a good state. 北极,一个美丽的生态系统, 我们地球上一个有调节作用的生物群落 受到气候变化的一次次冲击, 看上去似乎还可以。
regulating:vt.调节;校正(regulate的现在分词); biome:n.[生态]生物群系;[生态]生物群落区;
No scientist could predict that in 2007, suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold. 没有科学家能够预测在2007年 突然间,有什么能够跨越这个界限槛。
The system suddenly, very surprisingly , loses 30 to 40 percent of its summer ice cover. 生态系统突然间,非常出人意料地,失去了百分之三十到四十 的夏季冰覆盖率。
surprisingly:adv.令人惊讶地;出乎意料地
And the drama is, of course, that, when the system does this, the logic may change. 当然,具有戏剧效果的是, 当生态系统发生了变化,其中的逻辑也跟着变化。
drama:n.戏剧;戏剧艺术;戏剧文学;戏剧性事件;
It may get locked in an undesired state, because it changes color, absorbs more energy, and the system may get stuck. 这可能锁定了一种不希望的状态, 因为它改变了颜色,吸收了更多的能量, 系统可能陷入困境。
absorbs:v.吸收;吸引…的注意(absorb的第三人称单数形式);
In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity that we are in a precarious situation. 我认为,对于人类来说最大的一面红旗警示是 我们处在一个岌岌可危的时期。
precarious:adj.危险的;不确定的;
As a sideline , you know that the only red flag that popped up here was a submarine from an unnamed country that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic to be able to control the oil resources . 顺便说一下,你知道在那里的唯一一个红色旗 是一架从一个不知名国家来的潜水艇 在北极底部插上一面红旗 从而得以控制石油资源。
sideline:n.副业;球场边线;局外人的观点;vt.迫使退出;adj.倾斜的; submarine:n.潜艇;adj.水下的;海底的v.用潜艇攻击;驾驶潜艇; unnamed:adj.无名的;未命名的;未提及的; resources:n.[计][环境]资源; v.向…提供资金(resource的第三人称单数);
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have, that wetlands , forests, 现在,如果我们有证据,我们现在有了, 湿地,森林,
wetlands:n.湿地(wetland的复数形式);沼泽地;塘地;
[unclear], the rainforests , behave in this nonlinear way. 热带雨林, 不是按照线性方式运作。
rainforests:n.(热带)雨林; nonlinear:adj.非线性的;
30 or so scientists around the world gathered and asked a question for the first time, "Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?" 全世界大约有30名科学家 聚在一起,第一次问了一个问题, “我们要把这星球陷入困境吗？”
So we have to ask ourselves: are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state? 所以,我们必须问自己: 我们正在威胁这个非常稳定的全新世界吗？
extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地;
Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation where we're coming too close to thresholds that could lead to deleterious and very undesired, if now catastrophic , change for human development? 我们真的要将我们自己置于一个困境？ 我们即将接近 下一个界限而可能引向 有害的, 我们极不希望看到的,好比现在灾难性的 为人类发展而做的改变。
deleterious:adj.有毒的,有害的; catastrophic:adj.灾难的;悲惨的;灾难性的,毁灭性的;
You know, you don't want to stand there. 要知道,你并不希望站在那里。
In fact, you're not even allowed to stand where this gentleman is standing, at the foaming , slippery waters at the threshold. 实际上,根本不允许你站在那里 那是这位绅士站着的地方, 在那个槛,湿滑的水冒着泡。
foaming:n.发泡,泡沫形成;v.起泡沫(foam的ing形式); slippery:adj.滑的;狡猾的;不稳定的;
In fact, there's a fence quite upstream of this threshold, beyond which you are in a danger zone. 实际上,在这个界限的高处 有个护栏, 在危险区之上。
upstream:adv.逆流地;向上游;adj.向上游的;逆流而上的;n.上游部门;
And this is the new paradigm, which we gathered two, three years back, recognizing that our old paradigm of just analyzing and pushing and predicting parameters into the future, aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past. 这是个新的模式, 根据我们过去的两、三年收集的信息, 我们发现我们旧的模式 仅仅是分析、引用和预测 影响未来的参数, 目标是减小环境的冲击,那是过去式。
recognizing:v.认识;认出;承认;接受,赞成(recognize的现在分词) analyzing:adj.分析的;v.分析(analyze的现在分词); predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词) parameters:n.决定因素;规范;范围;(parameter的复数)
Now we to ask ourselves: which are the large environmental processes that we have to be stewards of to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene? 现在,我们问我们自己: 哪个是最大的环境进程 我们必须要管的 以保证我们自己在全新世的安全？
processes:n.过程; v.处理(process的第三人称单数形式); stewards:n.干事; v.管理;
And could we even, thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science, identify the thresholds, the points where we may expect nonlinear change? 我们甚至可以 感谢地球系统科学的重大发展, 发现这些一个个槛, 我们所期望的非线性变化的界限点？
advancements:n.进步;进展(advancement的复数形式);升任; identify:v.识别:鉴定:确认:发现:
And could we even define a planetary boundary , a fence, within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity? 我们甚至能定义 地球界限,一个护栏, 通过这些,我们人类就可以有个安全的工作空间吗？
define:v.定义;使明确;规定; boundary:n.边界;范围;分界线;
This work, which was published in "Nature," 在2009年底,“自然”杂志上发表的这个项目
late 2009, after a number of years of analysis , led to the final proposition , that we can only find nine planetary boundaries with which, under active stewardship , would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space. , 经过数年的分析, 终于得出最后的提议, 那就是我们只能够找到 九个地球界限 在积极领导下, 可能允许我们自己有个安全的工作空间。
analysis:n.分析;分解;验定; proposition:n.提议;待处理的问题;任务;(美国)法律修正议案;见解;命题;v.向...提议; boundaries:n.边界;分界线;(boundary的复数) stewardship:n.管理工作;管事人的职位及职责;
These include, of course, climate. 这包括了,当然的,气候。
It may surprise you that it's not only climate. 你可能觉得惊奇,不仅仅是气候。
But it shows that we are interconnected , among many systems on the planet, with the three big systems, climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification being the three big systems, 但是,它告诉了我们,我们是同这个星球上众多的生态系统息息相关的, 特别是其中的三大系统,气候变化, 臭氧层的削弱和海洋酸化 是这三大系统,
interconnected:adj.连通的;有联系的;v.互相连接(interconnect的过去式); stratospheric:adj.平流层的;同温层的; ozone:n.[化学]臭氧;新鲜的空气; depletion:n.消耗;损耗;放血; acidification:n.[化学]酸化;成酸性;使…发酸;
where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds in the paleo-record of the history of the planet. 从古地球的历史记录里已经有 大量的科学证据。
large-scale:adj.大规模的,大范围的;大比例尺的;
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables , the systems that, under the hood, regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet -- 但是,我们也包括,我们所谓的,慢性变量, 这些系统,在表面下, 调节和缓冲着地球的适应能力--
variables:n.[数]变量; buffer:n.[计]缓冲区;缓冲器,[车辆]减震器;vt.缓冲; capacity:n.能力;容量;资格,地位;生产力;
the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet, land use change, rate of biodiversity loss, freshwater use, functions which regulate biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration , diversity. 地球上氮磷大循环的干扰, 土地使用的变更,物种多样性的降低率 淡水的使用, 有调节 地球上的生物量,碳汇,多样性的作用。
interference:n.干扰,冲突;干涉; nitrogen:n.氮;氮气; phosphorus:n.磷; freshwater:adj.淡水的;无经验的;n.淡水;内河;湖水; biomass:n.(单位面积或体积内的)[生态]生物量; sequestration:n.隔离;扣押;退隐;
And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify -- air pollution, including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates , but also chemical pollution. 还有两个我们无法量化的参数-- 空气污染, 包括温室气体和空气污染的硫酸盐和硝酸盐, 以及化学污染。
quantify:vt.量化;为…定量;确定数量;vi.量化;定量; sulfates:n.[无化]硫酸盐(sulfate的复数); v.变成硫酸盐; nitrates:n.硝酸盐(nitrate的复数形式); chemical:n.化学制品,化学药品;adj.化学的;
Together, these form an integrated whole for guiding human development in the Anthropocene, understanding that the planet is a complex self-regulating system. 加在一起,这些综合成 在人类世指导人类发展, 理解地球上的 复杂的自我调节系统。
integrated:adj.综合的; v.整合; (integrate的过去式和过去分词) complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施; self-regulating:adj.自制的;自动调节的;
In fact, most evidence indicates that these nine may behave as three Musketeers -- "One for all. All for one." 事实是,大多数证据指出 这九大界限或许像三剑客一样-- “我为人人,人人为我。”
indicates:v.表明指示,显示;(indicate的第三人称单数) Musketeers:n.火枪手(musketeer的复数);
You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land, you undermine the ability of the climate system to stay stable. 人们滥伐森林,人们超越了土地的界限, 人们破坏了气候系统保持稳定 的能力。
degrade:v.降低…身份;使受屈辱;(使)退化,降解;分解;降低; undermine:vt.破坏,渐渐破坏;挖掘地基;
The drama here is, in fact, that it may show that the climate challenge is the easy one, if you consider the whole challenge of sustainable development . 有戏剧效果的是,实际上, 气候的挑战 可能是很简单的, 如果你考虑可持续发展的 整体性的挑战。
sustainable development:可持续发展;
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries. 现在,这个对于人类发展来说等同于大爆炸 在地球界限内的安全工作空间。
Bang:n.猛敲; v.猛敲; v.正好; equivalent:adj.等价的,相等的;同意义的;n.等价物,相等物;
What you see here in black line is the safe operating space, the quantified boundaries, as suggested by this analysis. 按照这一分析所建议的,你看到的这条黑线是安全工作空间, 量化了的界限 。
quantified:adj.量化的,定量;v.被量化(quantify的过去分词);
The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point , the pre-industrial point, where we're very safely in the safe operating space. 在中间的黄点是我们的开始点, 前工业化点, 我们在安全工作空间里非常地安全。
starting point:n.出发点;基础; pre-industrial:adj.工业化以前的;
In the 50s, we start branching out. 50年代,我们开始发散。
In the 60s already, through the green revolution and the Haber-Bosch process of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere -- you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole . 60年代通过绿色革命 和固定大气中的氮 的哈柏法-- 你知道,人类今天从大气中提取氮的含量 远远大于整个生物圈在自然情况下所提取的。
revolution:n.革命;旋转;运行;循环; atmosphere:n.大气;气氛;气压;风格; biosphere:n.生物圈; naturally:adv.自然地;自然而然地;轻而易举;天生地;大方地; as a whole:总的来说;
We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s, actually, right after Rio. 我们没有越过气候界限直到90年代早期, 实际上,是在里约热内卢召开的地球峰会之后。
transgress:vt.违反;侵犯;犯罪;vi.违反;违法;越界;
And today, we are in a situation where we estimate that we've transgressed three boundaries, the rate of biodiversity loss, which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity -- 今天,我们的处境是我们估计 我们已经越过三个界限, 物种多样性的降低率, 这是在人类历史上的第六个灭绝时期--
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本; transgressed:v.越轨;违背(道德);违犯(法律);(transgress的过去式和过去分词) extinction:n.绝种;
one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs -- nitrogen and climate change. 其中的一个是恐龙灭绝-- 氮气和气候变化。
extinctions:n.[生物]灭绝(extinction的复数);消失;废除;
But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others, but we are approaching fast on land, water, phosphorus and oceans. 但是,我们在其它界限上还有些空间, 但是我们接近土地 水源,磷和海洋的速度实在是太快了。
approaching:v.靠近,接近;接洽;建议;要求;(approach的现在分词)
But this gives a new paradigm to guide humanity, to put the light on our, so far, overpowered industrial vehicle , which operates as if we're only on a dark, straight highway. 但这给了我们一个新的模式 来指导人类, 为我们运转过度的工业引擎 开启一个新曙光, 我们原先仅仅是行驶在一条 黑暗笔直的公路上。
overpowered:n.爱情俘虏(歌曲名); vehicle:n.[车辆]车辆;工具;交通工具;运载工具;传播媒介;媒介物;
Now the question then is: how gloomy is this? 现在的问题是: 有多黑暗？
gloomy:adj.黑暗的;沮丧的;阴郁的;
Is then sustainable development utopia ? 可持续发展会成为乌托邦么？
utopia:n.乌托邦(理想中最美好的社会);理想国;
Well, there's no science to suggest. 没有科学能够给与答案。
In fact there is ample science to indicate that we can do this transformative change, that we have the ability to now move into a new innovative , a transformative gear , across scales . 实际上,大量的科学 表明我们能够完成这次变革, 我们有能力 进入一个新的,创新性的, 转型的,跨尺度的, 新时期。
innovative:adj.革新的,创新的; gear:n.齿轮; v.适合; scales:n.规模范围; v.攀登; (scale的第三人称单数和复数)
The drama is, of course, is that 200 countries on this planet have to simultaneously start moving in the same direction. 当然,有戏剧效果的是, 地球上的200多个国家 都同时朝着同一个方向 开始绿色行动。
But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm, from the current linear, command and control thinking, looking at efficiencies and optimization towards a much more flexible , a much more adaptive approach, where we recognize that redundancy , both in social and environmental systems, is key to be able to deal with a turbulent era of global change. 但是这从根本上改变了我们政府和管理的模式, 从现在的线性模式, 命令和控制性的思考, 关注有效性和优化性 朝着一个更加灵活的, 一个更加能适应的模式, 我们意识到无论社会和环境体系中的 繁冗, 都是能够顺应 瞬息万变的全球化改变的关键。
fundamentally:adv.从根本上;基础地;重要地 governance:n.管理;统治;支配; management:n.管理;管理人员;管理部门;操纵;经营手段; efficiencies:n.效率(efficiency的复数); optimization:n.最佳化,最优化; flexible:adj.灵活的;柔韧的;易弯曲的; adaptive:adj.适应的,适合的; redundancy:n.[计][数]冗余(等于redundance);裁员;人浮于事; turbulent:adj.骚乱的,混乱的;狂暴的;吵闹的;激流的,湍流的;
We have to invest in persistence , in the ability of social systems and ecological systems to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup. 我们要在持续性上投资, 在社交系统和生态系统 能够承受巨大变动,仍然保持我们所希望的适应力曲线。
invest:v.投资;(把资金)投入;投入(时间、精力等);授予; persistence:n.持续;固执;存留;坚持不懈;毅力; ecological:adj.生态的,生态学的; withstand:vt.抵挡;禁得起;反抗;vi.反抗;
We have to invest in transformations capability , moving from crisis into innovation, and the ability to rise after a crisis, and, of course, to adapt to unavoidable change. 我们要在改革能力上投资, 将危机化为创新, 在危机后再次崛起的能力, 当然还有适应不可避免的变化的能力。
transformations:n.[晶体]转变(transformation的复数形式);转换; capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量; unavoidable:adj.不可避免的;不能废除的;
This is a new paradigm. 这是一个新的模式。
We're not doing that at any scale on governance. 我们不在任何政府层面上完成。
But is it happening anywhere? 那这会发生么？
Do we have any examples of success on this mindshift being applied at the local level? 我们有在地方级别上 应用这种思想变革的成功的例子么？
applied:adj.应用的;实用的;v.应用;使用;申请,请求;(apply的过去分词和过去式)
Well, yes, in fact we do, and the list can start becoming longer and longer. 有的。实际上我们有, 这份成功的名单正在变得更长。
There's good news here, for example, from Latin America , where plow-based farming systems of the '50s and '60s led farming basically to a dead-end , with lower and lower yields , degrading the organic matter and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels 好消息是, 例如,在拉丁美洲, 在那里,50年代和60年代的 以犁耕为基础的农业系统 基本上这样的农业系统是没有出路的, 越来越低的产量,降解有机物 和在巴拉圭,乌拉圭和一些国家,巴西
Latin America:n.拉丁美洲(以西班牙语或葡萄牙语为主要语言的美洲地区); basically:adv.主要地,基本上; dead-end:无出路的;辣手的;绝境; yields:n.生产量,投资效益(yield的复数形式); v.[经]生产; degrading:adj.降低身份的; v.降低…身份; (degrade的现在分词) organic:adj.有机的;不使用化肥的;绿色的;有机物的;n.分子有机体; livelihood:n.生计,生活;营生;
in Paraguay, Uruguay, and a number of countries, Brazil , leading to innovation and entrepreneurship among farmers in partnership with scientists into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems combined with mulch farming with locally adapted technologies , which today, for example, in some countries, have led to a tremendous increase in area under mulch, zero till farming, which, not only produces more food, but also sequesters carbon. 的民生基本问题, 这导致农民和科学家们合作 一起创新, 进入一个将免耕系统和 覆盖耕作的农业革命, 同时还有适应地方上需要的科技, 今天,比如,在一些国家, 已经在覆盖耕作,免耕区域 取得了巨大的增长, 不仅仅是生产出更多的粮食, 而且吸收了多余的碳,降低排放。
Brazil:n.巴西(拉丁美洲国家); entrepreneurship:n.企业家精神; partnership:n.合伙;[经管]合伙企业;合作关系;合伙契约; agricultural:adj.农业的;农艺的; tillage:n.耕作,耕种; mulch:n.覆盖物,护盖物;护根;vt.做护根;以护盖物覆盖; locally:adv.在本地;局部地;在地方上; adapted:adj.适于…的; v.使适应,使适合; (adapt的过去分词和过去式) technologies:n.技术;科技(technology的复数); tremendous:adj.极大的,巨大的;惊人的;极好的; sequesters:v.使分开;使隔离;使退隐;(法)扣押;n.螯合剂;(sequester的第三人称单数)
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story . 澳大利亚大堡礁是另一个成功故事。
Barrier Reef:n.堡礁(近海岸的珊瑚礁); success story:n.获得巨大成功的人(或事物);
Under the realization from tourist operators, fishermen, the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed under the current governance regime . 从旅游经营者, 渔夫们, 澳大利亚大堡礁管理局和科学家们所意识到的, 在现行的管理制度下, 大堡礁注定要灭亡的。
realization:n.实现;领悟; Authority:n.权威;权力;当局; doomed:adj.注定的;命定的;v.使…注定失败(doom的过去分词和过去式) regime:n.政权,政体;社会制度;管理体制;
Global change, beautification [unclear] culture, overfishing and unsustainable tourism, all together placing this system in the realization of crisis. 全球变化,美化文化, 过度捕捞和不可持续的旅游业, 所有这一切将这个系统 陷入危机中。
beautification:n.美化;[建]装饰;
But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset , which today has led to a completely new governance strategy to build resilience, acknowledge redundancy 但是创新和新观念带来了机会, 今天已经完成了新的管理机制 来建立应急能力, 认识到繁冗性,
mindset:n.心态;倾向;习惯;精神状态; strategy:n.策略;行动计划;部署;战略;
and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole, and then allow for much more redundancy in the system. 并在综合方面投资整个系统, 这样允许生态系统有更多的繁复之处。
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples, where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as -- as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance in the peri-urban regions . 我所来自的国家瑞典,有另外一个例子, 在瑞典南部,湿地被看做是 跟很多国家一样--像洪水污染泛滥一样 使周围的城市地区厌恶。
nuisance:n.麻烦事;讨厌的人(或东西);妨害行为; peri-urban:城市边缘地区; regions:n.地区;地域;行政区;左近;(region的复数)
But again, a crisis, new partnerships , actors locally, transforming these into a key component of sustainable urban planning. 但是又一次的危机,新的合作, 地方上的执行者们,将这些变成 可持续城市计划的一个 关键组成部分。
partnerships:n.伙伴关系;合伙;(partnership的复数) transforming:v.使改变形态;使改变外观(或性质);使改观;(transform的现在分词) component:n.成分;部件;组成部分;adj.构成的;
So crisis leading into opportunities. 危机变成了机会。
Now, what about the future? 好,那未来呢？
Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge, which is feeding a world of nine billion people. 当然,未来是个巨大的挑战, 要供给全世界90亿人。
massive:adj.大量的;巨大的,厚重的;魁伟的;
We need nothing less than a new green revolution, and the planet boundaries shows that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink. 除了绿色革命我们不需要其它的什么, 地球界限显示 农业已经从一个温室气体排放器到接收器。
nothing less than:完全是;不亚于;与…一模一样;
It has to basically do this on current land. 我们现今的土地正发挥这样的作用。
We cannot expand anymore, because it erodes the planetary boundaries. 我们不能再扩张了, 因为已经侵蚀到地球界限了。
expand:v.扩张;使膨胀;详述;发展;张开,展开; erodes:vt.腐蚀,侵蚀;vi.侵蚀;受腐蚀;
We cannot continue consuming water as we do today, with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean. 我们不能再像我们今天这样继续使用水了, 世界上百分之25的河流都无法流向大海。
consuming:adj.消费的;强烈的;v.消耗(consume的ing形式);
And we need a transformation. 我们需要一个变革。
Well, interestingly , and based on my work and others in Africa, for example, we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems, with innovations and supplementary irrigation to bridge dry spells and droughts , 有趣的是,根据我的研究 和其他人在非洲的研究,比如, 我们讲了即便是最最宝贵的小型降雨耕作系统, 有了创新和补充灌溉 也能解决干旱和旱灾,
interestingly:adv.有趣地; vulnerable:adj.易受攻击的,易受…的攻击;易受伤害的;有弱点的; small-scale:adj.小规模的; rainfall:n.降雨;降雨量; innovations:n.创新(innovation的复数);改革; supplementary:adj.补充的;追加的;n.补充者;增补物; irrigation:n.灌溉;[临床]冲洗;冲洗法; droughts:n.[气候]干旱(drought的复数);旱灾灾情;
sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients from toilets back to farmers' fields, and innovations in tillage systems, we can triple , quadruple, yield levels on current land. 可持续性卫生系统将养分从厕所 循环到农田, 创新的耕作系统, 我们可以在现有的农田上 得到三倍,四倍的产量。
sanitation:n.[医]环境卫生;卫生设备;下水道设施; loop:n.循环;回路;环路;圈;v.使成环;使绕成圈;成环形移动; nutrients:营养盐;[食品]营养素; triple:adj.三部分的; n.三倍的数[量]; v.成为三倍;
Elinor Ostrom, the latest Nobel laureate of economics, clearly shows empirically across the world that we can govern the commons if we invest in trust, local, action-based partnerships and cross-scale institutional innovations, where local actors, together, can deal with the global commons at a large scale. 埃莉诺奥斯特罗姆, 最新的诺贝尔经济学奖得主, 向全世界展示经验 那就是我们能管理好, 如果我们在信心上, 地方上,以行动为基础的合作伙伴关系上 和跨机构的创新体制上投资, 与地方上的执行者们一起, 能够在大规模上 处理全球共有的问题。
laureate:adj.戴桂冠的;荣誉的;n.桂冠诗人;得奖者;vt.使戴桂冠; empirically:adv.以经验为主地; institutional:adj.制度的;
But even on the hard policy area we have innovations. 但是,即便在复杂政治领域,我们也能创新。
We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time. 我们知道我们必须从依赖石油快速转变到 低碳经济。
fossil:n.化石;老人;老古董;adj.从地下发掘出来的;化石的;属于旧时代的;陈腐的; dependence:n.依赖;依靠;信任;信赖; low-carbon:adj.低碳(的),含碳低的;低碳; economy:n.经济;节约;理财;
And what shall we do? 我们该怎么办呢？
Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it wont work -- emission schemes , but for example, one policy measure, feed-in tariffs on the energy system, which is already applied, from China doing it on offshore wind systems, all the way to the U.S., 每个人都在讲碳税--这个不会起作用--碳排放收费计划, 但是,例如,一个政策措施, 对能量系统的电力收购政策, 其实这个已经在实施, 从中国对其海上发电系统收购, 一直到美国,
wont:n.习惯;惯常活动;adj.习惯于;vi.习惯,惯常;vt.使习惯于; emission:n.(光、热等的)发射,散发;喷射;发行; schemes:n.方案,计划;阴谋(scheme的复数);v.计划,设计;谋划(scheme的三单形式); feed-in:adj.进料的;进给的;n.馈入; tariffs:n.[税收]关税(tariff的复数); offshore:adj.离岸的;[海洋]近海的;吹向海面的;adv.向海面,向海;
where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy, but you can subsidize electricity to poor people. 你保证了在可再生能源投资的收购价格, 然后能给穷人补贴电费。
guaranteed:adj.必然的; v.保证; investment:n.投资;投入;封锁; renewable:adj.可再生的;可更新的;可继续的;n.再生性能源; subsidize:vt.资助;给与奖助金;向…行贿; electricity:n.电力;电流;强烈的紧张情绪;
You get people out of poverty . 让人们摆脱贫穷。
poverty:n.贫困;困难;缺少;低劣;
You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector , while at the same time , stimulating innovation -- examples of things that can be out scaled quickly at the planetary level. 人们在能源方面解决了气候问题, 与此同时,刺激了创新-- 在全球范围内迅速出现了 类似的例子。
sector:n.部门;扇形,扇区;象限仪;函数尺;vt.把…分成扇形; at the same time:同时;另一方面;与此同时; stimulating:adj.激励人的; v.促进; (stimulate的现在分词) scaled:adj.有鳞的; v.刮去鳞片;
So there is, no doubt, opportunity here, and we can list many, many examples of transformative opportunities around the planet. 这样,毫无疑问地,机会出现了, 我们可以列举出很多,很多 全球上变革机会的例子。
The key though in all of these, the red thread , is the shift in mindset, moving away from a situation where we are simply are pushing ourselves into a dark future, where we instead [unclear] our future, and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet? 所有这一切的关键, 红色警示 意味观念要改变, 改变了我们只是单一地将我们自己推进 一个黑暗的未来的状况, 而是展望我们的未来, 我们说,“什么是地球的绿色竞技场呢？
thread:n.螺纹;线索;思路;脉络;v.穿过;穿(针);纫(针);(使)穿过; shift:n.移动;变化;手段;轮班;v.移动;转变;转换; playing field:n.运动场;操场;
What are the planetary boundaries within which we can safely operate?" 什么是我们能够安全生活的 地球边界？”
and then backtrack innovations within that. 正是危机背后推动的创新。
backtrack:vi.[计]回溯;由原路返回;放弃;vt.追踪;循迹调查;
But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows that incremental change is not an option. 但是,当然的,它清楚地显示出 渐进式的变化是不可行的。
incremental:adj.增加的,增值的;
So, there is scientific evidence. 这是科学证据。
They sort of say the harsh news, that we are facing the largest transformative development since the industrialization . 他们算是说了些重要的新闻, 那就是我们正面临着 自工业化以来的最大的 变革发展。
harsh:adj.严厉的;严酷的;刺耳的;粗糙的;刺目的; industrialization:n.工业化;
In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years is much more dramatic and more exciting than what we did when we moved into the situation we're in today. 事实上,我们在今后的40年中应该做的 更戏剧化,也更加激动人心 相比当初我们刚面对 今天这个情况时所做的。
dramatic:adj.突然的;巨大的;令人吃惊的;激动人心的;
Now, science indicates that, yes, we can achieve a prosperous future within the safe operating space, if we move simultaneously, collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale, in transformative options , which build resilience on a finite planet. 现在,科学指出, 是的,在安全可操作区域,我们能实现 一个繁荣的未来理想, 如果我们同时行动, 在全球层面上的合作,从地方到全球, 在一个有限的地球建立一种变革的适应性。
prosperous:adj.繁荣的;兴旺的; collaborating:v.合作;协作;通敌;勾结敌人;(collaborate的现在分词) options:n.选择; v.得到或获准进行选择; (option的三单形式) finite:adj.有限的;限定的;n.有限之物;
Thank you. 谢谢。
(Applause) （鼓掌）