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JeremyHoward_2014X-_会学习的电脑带来的美好和恐怖_
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| It used to be that if you wanted to get a computer to do something new, you would have to program it. |
在过去,如果你想让计算机做一件事 你需要设计电脑程序 |
| Now, programming, for those of you here that haven't done it yourself, requires laying out in excruciating detail every single step that you want the computer to do in order to achieve your goal. |
你们可能从没做过这件事 编程需要排列出你想让电脑做的 每一个细枝末节的小步骤来达到你的目的 |
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excruciating:adj.折磨人的;极痛苦的;极坏的;v.折磨;使受酷刑;(excruciate的现在分词)
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| Now, if you want to do something that you don't know how to do yourself, then this is going to be a great challenge. |
假如你自己都不清楚完成这某件事的话 要编写处电脑程序来完成那件事就会显得比登天还要困难 |
| So this was the challenge faced by this man, Arthur Samuel. |
这也是这个人,亚瑟 塞缪尔,所面临的挑战 |
| In 1956, he wanted to get this computer to be able to beat him at checkers . |
在1956年,他想让这台电脑和他下国际象棋 |
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checkers:n.收银员;检查程序;检验员;审核员;(checker的第三人称单数和复数)
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| How can you write a program, lay out in excruciating detail, how to be better than you at checkers? |
你怎样才能罗列出所有的细枝末节, 并且让电脑下象棋比你厉害？ |
| So he came up with an idea: he had the computer play against itself thousands of times and learn how to play checkers. |
他想出一个办法 它让电脑和自己对战几千次 学习如何下象棋 |
| And indeed it worked, and in fact, by 1962, this computer had beaten the Connecticut state champion. |
事实证明他做到了。1962年 这台电脑打败了美国康涅狄克州象棋冠军 |
| So Arthur Samuel was the father of machine learning, and I have a great debt to him, because I am a machine learning practitioner . |
亚瑟 塞缪尔是机器学习之父 我非常敬畏他 因为我是机器学习的实践者 |
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debt:n.债务;借款;罪过; practitioner:n.开业者,从业者,执业医生;
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| I was the president of Kaggle, a community of over 200,000 machine learning practictioners. |
我曾是Kaggle的主席 Kaggle是一个拥有200,000机器学习实践者地社区 |
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community:n.社区;[生态]群落;共同体;团体;
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| Kaggle puts up competitions to try and get them to solve previously unsolved problems, and it's been successful hundreds of times. |
Kaggle会组织竞赛 让人们尝试解决过去未解决的问题 已成功解决问题几百次 |
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competitions:n.比赛,[生态]竞争(competition的复数形式); previously:adv.先前;以前; unsolved:adj.未解决的;未解答的;
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| So from this vantage point , I was able to find out a lot about what machine learning can do in the past, can do today, and what it could do in the future. |
在这个有利环境中,我发现了 机器学习在过去,现在, 和将来可以做些什么 |
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vantage point:n.(观察事物的)有利地点;(尤指考虑旧时事物的)有利时刻;
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| Perhaps the first big success of machine learning commercially was Google . |
第一个机器学习的商业成功案例应该是谷歌 |
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commercially:adv.商业上;通商上; Google:谷歌;谷歌搜索引擎;
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| Google showed that it is possible to find information by using a computer algorithm, and this algorithm is based on machine learning. |
谷歌用计算机算法寻找信息 而且这个算法以计算机学习为基础 |
| Since that time, there have been many commercial successes of machine learning. |
从那以后,机器学习得到了很多的商业成功 |
| Companies like Amazon and Netflix use machine learning to suggest products that you might like to buy, movies that you might like to watch. |
像亚马逊、网飞这类公司 通过机器学习向你推荐你可能想买的东西 你可能想看的电影 |
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Amazon:亚马逊;古希腊女战士; Netflix:n.网飞公司(出租DVD;在线观看电影的网站。);
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| Sometimes, it's almost creepy . |
有时候你会被吓一跳 |
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creepy:adj.令人毛骨悚然的;爬行的;
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| Companies like LinkedIn and Facebook sometimes will tell you about who your friends might be and you have no idea how it did it, and this is because it's using the power of machine learning. |
像领英、脸谱这类的公司 有时会告诉你谁会是你的朋友 你根本不知道他们是如何做到的 其实他们正是运用了机器学习的力量 |
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LinkedIn:人际关系网;邻客音;社交网站;
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| These are algorithms that have learned how to do this from data rather than being programmed by hand. |
这种运算方法使用数据 而非手动编写程序 |
| This is also how IBM was successful in getting Watson to beat the two world champions at " Jeopardy ," |
这也是IBM的Watson超级计算机在 《危险边缘》里打败两届世界冠军的秘诀 |
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Jeopardy:n.危险;(被告处于被判罪或受处罚的)危险境地;
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| answering incredibly subtle and complex questions like this one. |
成功回答了这样一个极其模糊且复杂的问题 |
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incredibly:adv.难以置信地;非常地; subtle:adj.微妙的;精细的;敏感的;狡猾的;稀薄的; complex:adj.复杂的;合成的;n.复合体;综合设施;
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| ["The ancient 'Lion of Nimrud' went missing from this city's national museum in 2003 |
［“古代‘尼姆鲁德狮像’于2003年在这个城市的国家博物馆消失（连同其它很多物品）”］ |
| This is also why we are now able to see the first self-driving cars. |
这也是为什么我们现在有了第一台自驾车 |
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self-driving:自驾;
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| If you want to be able to tell the difference between, say, a tree and a pedestrian , well, that's pretty important. |
如果你想区分一棵树和一个行人 显然这很重要 |
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pedestrian:adj.徒步的;缺乏想像力的;n.行人;步行者;
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| We don't know how to write those programs by hand, but with machine learning, this is now possible. |
但是我们不知道如何写这样一个程序 有了机器学习,这就成为了可能 |
| And in fact, this car has driven over a million miles without any accidents on regular roads. |
这台自驾车已经行驶了十万英里 在正常路面上零事故 |
| So we now know that computers can learn, and computers can learn to do things that we actually sometimes don't know how to do ourselves, or maybe can do them better than us. |
我们知道电脑能够学习 学习做一件有时我们自己 都不知道怎么做的事情 有时甚至比我们做得更好 |
| One of the most amazing examples I've seen of machine learning happened on a project that I ran at Kaggle where a team run by a guy called Geoffrey Hinton from the University of Toronto won a competition for automatic drug discovery. |
我见过机器学习最惊人的例子 是我在Kaggle做的一个项目 一个叫杰弗里 辛顿的人毕业于多伦多大学, 带领一个团队 赢得了一个自动查毒的竞赛 |
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Toronto:n.多伦多(加拿大城市); automatic:adj.自动的;无意识的;必然的;n.自动步枪;自动换挡汽车;
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| Now, what was extraordinary here is not just that they beat all of the algorithms developed by Merck or the international academic community, but nobody on the team had any background in chemistry or biology or life sciences , and they did it in two weeks. |
然而真正精彩的不是他们打败了 所有默克公司或者国际学术团体设计的运算 而是他们团队里没有一个人有化学、生物或者生命科学的背景 却在两个星期内赢得了比赛 |
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extraordinary:adj.非凡的;特别的;离奇的;临时的;特派的; Merck:n.默克公司(财富500强公司之一,部所在地美国,主要经营制药); academic:adj.学术的;理论的;学院的;n.大学生,大学教师;学者; biology:n.(一个地区全部的)生物;生物学; life sciences:n.生命科学;
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| How did they do this? |
他们是如何做到的？ |
| They used an extraordinary algorithm called deep learning. |
他们应用了一种超凡的算法叫做深度学习 |
| So important was this that in fact the success was covered in The New York Times in a front page article a few weeks later. |
几个星期后纽约时报在其首页 报道了此次的重要成功 |
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front page:adj.(新闻等的)头版的;重要的;轰动的;vt.把…登在头版;
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| This is Geoffrey Hinton here on the left-hand side. |
在左手边就是杰弗里 辛顿 |
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left-hand:adj.左手的;左侧的;
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| Deep learning is an algorithm inspired by how the human brain works, and as a result it's an algorithm which has no theoretical limitations on what it can do. |
深度学习是受到人类大脑的启发 也因此这种算法的能力 不受任何理论限制 |
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inspired:adj.受到启发的; v.鼓舞; (inspire的过去分词和过去式) as a result:结果; theoretical:adj.理论的;理论上的;假设的;推理的; limitations:n.局限性;(限制)因素;边界(limitation的复数形式);
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| The more data you give it and the more computation time you give it, the better it gets. |
你给它越多的数据和运算时间 它会工作的越好 |
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computation:n.估计,计算;
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| The New York Times also showed in this article another extraordinary result of deep learning which I'm going to show you now. |
纽约时报在其文章中 还说明了深度学习的另一非凡之处 现在我要展示给你们看 |
| It shows that computers can listen and understand. |
它表明电脑能够听懂信息 |
| (Video) Richard Rashid: Now, the last step that I want to be able to take in this process is to actually speak to you in Chinese. |
（视频）理查德 拉希德: 现在,我要做的最后一步是 用汉语和大家说话 |
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process:v.处理;加工;列队行进;n.过程,进行;方法,adj.经过特殊加工(或处理)的;
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| Now the key thing there is, we've been able to take a large amount of information from many Chinese speakers and produce a text-to-speech system that takes Chinese text and converts it into Chinese language, and then we've taken an hour or so of my own voice and we've used that to modulate the standard text-to-speech system so that it would sound like me. |
在这之前,我们已经通过 很多说汉语的人收集了大量信息 然后形成一个语音合成系统 把汉字转换成汉语言 之后我们收录了一个小时我的声音 使声音合成系统的声音 听起来像我 |
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text-to-speech:n.语音合成;文字转语音;文字-话音切换; converts:vt.使转变; vi.转变,变换; n.皈依者; modulate:vt.调节;(信号)调制;调整;vi.调制;转调; standard:n.标准;水准;旗;度量衡标准;adj.标准的;合规格的;公认为优秀的;
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| Again, the result's not perfect. |
再次,结果并不完美 |
| There are in fact quite a few errors. |
他们会有不少错误 |
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quite a few:不少,相当多;
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| (In Chinese) |
（中文） |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |
| There's much work to be done in this area. |
在这个领域还有很多工作要做 |
| (In Chinese) |
（中文） |
| (Applause) |
（掌声） |
| Jeremy Howard: Well, that was at a machine learning conference in China. |
杰里米 霍华德:这是在一个中国的机器学习会议上 |
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conference:n.会议;研讨会;商讨会;体育协会(或联合会)
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| It's not often, actually, at academic conferences that you do hear spontaneous applause , although of course sometimes at TEDx conferences, feel free. |
事实上,一般来说,你不会在学术会议上听到如此热烈的掌声 当然除了TEDx演讲可以随意鼓掌 |
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conferences:n.会议(conference的复数形式); spontaneous:adj.自发的;自然的;无意识的; applause:n.欢呼,喝采;鼓掌欢迎;
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| Everything you saw there was happening with deep learning. |
你所看到的一切都伴随着深入学习 |
| (Applause) Thank you. |
（掌声）谢谢 |
| The transcription in English was deep learning. |
对英文的转录是深入学习 |
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transcription:n.抄写;抄本;誊写;
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| The translation to Chinese and the text in the top right, deep learning, and the construction of the voice was deep learning as well. |
翻译成汉语以及屏幕右上方的文字是深入学习 声音的合成也是深入学习 |
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construction:n.建设;建筑物;解释;造句;
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| So deep learning is this extraordinary thing. |
深入学习就是这样神奇的事情 |
| It's a single algorithm that can seem to do almost anything, and I discovered that a year earlier, it had also learned to see. |
这个单一的算法似乎可以做任何事情 而且一年前我发现他甚至有视觉 |
| In this obscure competition from Germany called the German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark , deep learning had learned to recognize traffic signs like this one. |
这个名不见经传的德国竞赛 叫做德国交通标志识别基准 深度学习已学得识别这些交通标识 |
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obscure:n.朦胧; adj.无名的; v.使模糊; Recognition:n.识别;认识;承认;认可; Benchmark:n.基准;标准检查程序;vt.用基准问题测试(计算机系统等); recognize:v.认识;认出;辨别出;承认;意识到;
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| Not only could it recognize the traffic signs better than any other algorithm, the leaderboard actually showed it was better than people, about twice as good as people. |
它不仅能够做的比其它算法好 排行榜显示它比人更厉害 是人的准确率的两倍 |
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leaderboard:n.排行榜;通栏广告;
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| So by 2011, we had the first example of computers that can see better than people. |
到2011年,我们有了 第一台视力高于人类的电脑 |
| Since that time, a lot has happened. |
从此更多的电脑也可以做到 |
| In 2012, Google announced that they had a deep learning algorithm watch YouTube videos and crunched the data on 16,000 computers for a month, and the computer independently learned about concepts such as people and cats just by watching the videos. |
在2012年,谷歌宣布让一个深度学习的算法看YouTube视频 收集16,000台电脑上的数据,为期一个月 之后电脑便能仅通过看视频 独立识别人和猫 |
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crunched:v.(使)发出碎裂声;(在路上)行进发出响声;(crunch的过去分词和过去式) independently:adv.独立地;自立地;
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| This is much like the way that humans learn. |
这近似于人类学习的过程 |
| Humans don't learn by being told what they see, but by learning for themselves what these things are. |
人类不需要被告诉他们看到了什么 而是在自己认知事物的过程中学习 |
| Also in 2012, Geoffrey Hinton, who we saw earlier, won the very popular ImageNet competition, looking to try to figure out from one and a half million images what they're pictures of. |
同样在2012年,杰弗里 辛顿,我们之前看到的人 赢了很火的ImageNet比赛 分辨出150万张图片的内容 |
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images:n.印象;声誉;形象;画像;雕像;(image的第三人称单数和复数)
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| As of 2014, we're now down to a six percent error rate in image recognition. |
到2014年,我们已经将图像识别的误差降低到百分之六 |
| This is better than people, again. |
低于人类误差率 |
| So machines really are doing an extraordinarily good job of this, and it is now being used in industry. |
这项非凡的工作 现在已经用于工业 |
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extraordinarily:adv.非常;格外地;非凡地;
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| For example, Google announced last year that they had mapped every single location in France in two hours, and the way they did it was that they fed street view images into a deep learning algorithm to recognize and read street numbers. |
比如说,去年谷歌声明 他们在两小时内把法国的每一个地点汇成地图 他们是将街景填入 深度学习算法以辨认街道号 |
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location:n.地方;地点;位置;定位
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| Imagine how long it would have taken before: dozens of people, many years. |
可以想象从前这件事要花费 多少时间和精力 |
| This is also happening in China. |
同样的事情也发生在中国 |
| Baidu is kind of the Chinese Google, I guess, and what you see here in the top left is an example of a picture that I uploaded to Baidu's deep learning system, |
百度大概类似于中国的谷歌 我们看到左上角 是一张我上传到百度的深度学习系统的图片 |
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uploaded:vt.上传;
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| and underneath you can see that the system has understood what that picture is and found similar images. |
下面你可以看到系统理解了这张照片 并且找到了类似的图片 |
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underneath:prep.在…的下面;在…的支配下;n.下面;底部;adj.下面的;底层的;
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| The similar images actually have similar backgrounds, similar directions of the faces, even some with their tongue out. |
同样的背景 同样的角度 有的甚至也有伸出来的舌头 |
| This is not clearly looking at the text of a web page. |
网页上没有准确的文字 |
| All I uploaded was an image. |
我只是上传了图片 |
| So we now have computers which really understand what they see and can therefore search databases of hundreds of millions of images in real time . |
所以说电脑能够真正理解它所看到的事物 进而在数据库 的几百万张图片中进行实时搜索 |
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real time:adj.实时的;接到指示立即执行的;
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| So what does it mean now that computers can see? |
就现在而言,电脑的视力意味着什么呢？ |
| Well, it's not just that computers can see. |
事实上不仅仅是电脑能够看见 |
| In fact, deep learning has done more than that. |
深度学习其实可以做得更多 |
| Complex, nuanced sentences like this one are now understandable with deep learning algorithms. |
像这样一个细小复杂的语句 对深度学习来说是相对易于理解的 |
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nuanced:adj.微妙的; v.精确细腻地表演; understandable:adj.可以理解的;可以了解的;
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| As you can see here, this Stanford-based system showing the red dot at the top has figured out that this sentence is expressing negative sentiment . |
你可以看到 斯坦福基础系统显示上面的红点 指出这个语句表达的是否定语气 |
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As you can see:正如你所看到的;你是知道的; expressing:v.表示;表达;表露;显而易见;(express的现在分词) negative:adj.[数]负的;消极的;否定的;阴性的;n.否定;负数;[摄]底片;v.否定;拒绝; sentiment:n.感情,情绪;情操;观点;多愁善感;
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| Deep learning now in fact is near human performance at understanding what sentences are about and what it is saying about those things. |
深度学习在理解 语句内容方面已经接近人类水平 |
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performance:n.性能;表现;业绩;表演;
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| Also, deep learning has been used to read Chinese, again at about native Chinese speaker level. |
同样,深度学习在用于阅读汉语上 已经相当于中国本土人水平 |
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native:adj.本国的;土著的;天然的;与生俱来的;天赋的;n.本地人;土产;当地居民;
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| This algorithm developed out of Switzerland by people, none of whom speak or understand any Chinese. |
这个算法开发于瑞士 没有一个人懂汉语 |
| As I say, using deep learning is about the best system in the world for this, even compared to native human understanding. |
要我说,深度学习 是比较于人类 做这件事最好的系统 |
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compared:adj.比较的,对照的; v.相比; (compare的过去式和过去分词)
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| This is a system that we put together at my company which shows putting all this stuff together. |
这个系统是在我们公司建立的 它要把这些东西集合起来 |
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put together:..放在一起;组合;装配; stuff:n.东西:物品:基本特征:v.填满:装满:标本:
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| These are pictures which have no text attached , and as I'm typing in here sentences, in real time it's understanding these pictures and figuring out what they're about and finding pictures that are similar to the text that I'm writing. |
这些图片没有文字描述 随着我在这输入文字 同时它会了解这些图片 理解它们是关于什么的 然后找出和这些相似的图片 |
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attached:adj.依恋;v.重视;把…固定;(attach的过去分词和过去式)
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| So you can see, it's actually understanding my sentences and actually understanding these pictures. |
所以你看,他真正在理解我的文字 理解这些图片 |
| I know that you've seen something like this on Google, where you can type in things and it will show you pictures, but actually what it's doing is it's searching the webpage for the text. |
我知道你在谷歌上看到过类似的 你可以输入文字,它会提供给你图片 但实际上它是在网页上搜索文字 |
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webpage:n.网页;
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| This is very different from actually understanding the images. |
这和理解图片是有很大不同的 |
| This is something that computers have only been able to do for the first time in the last few months. |
理解图片是电脑 在过去几个月里才刚刚会做的事情 |
| So we can see now that computers can not only see but they can also read, and, of course, we've shown that they can understand what they hear. |
电脑不仅有视力,而且能够阅读 而且当然,电脑也能理解所听到的 |
| Perhaps not surprising now that I'm going to tell you they can write. |
也许并不意外,我现在要告诉你们,电脑也可以写 |
| Here is some text that I generated using a deep learning algorithm yesterday. |
这是我昨天用深度学习算法写的文字 |
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generated:v.产生;引起;(generate的过去式和过去分词)
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| And here is some text that an algorithm out of Stanford generated. |
这些是斯坦福的算法做的 |
| Each of these sentences was generated by a deep learning algorithm to describe each of those pictures. |
每一句话都是深度学习算法 对图片进行的描述 |
|
describe:v.描述;形容;把…称为;画出…图形;
|
| This algorithm before has never seen a man in a black shirt playing a guitar. |
算法没见过一个穿黑衣服的男人弹吉他 |
| It's seen a man before, it's seen black before, it's seen a guitar before, but it has independently generated this novel description of this picture. |
它见过男人,见过黑色 见过吉他 它便自己对这个图片作出了这样的描述 |
|
novel:adj.新奇的;异常的;n.小说; description:n.说明;形容;描写(文字);类型;
|
| We're still not quite at human performance here, but we're close. |
我们还做不到完全和人类同等水平,但我们已经很接近了 |
| In tests, humans prefer the computer-generated caption one out of four times. |
统计表明,四分之一的人更喜欢 电脑做的图片说明 |
|
prefer:v.更喜欢;宁愿;提出;提升; computer-generated:adj.计算机产生的;电脑生成的;
|
| Now this system is now only two weeks old, so probably within the next year, the computer algorithm will be well past human performance at the rate things are going. |
目前这个系统刚被开发两周之久 所以按这个速度,估计明年 电脑算法会超过人类水平 |
| So computers can also write. |
电脑会写 |
| So we put all this together and it leads to very exciting opportunities. |
我们把这些都放在一起,会发现一个令人兴奋的机遇 |
| For example, in medicine, a team in Boston announced that they had discovered dozens of new clinically relevant features of tumors which help doctors make a prognosis of a cancer . |
比如说,在医药业 一个波士顿团队宣布 他们发现了肿瘤的几十种临床表现 帮助医生预测癌症 |
|
Boston:n.波士顿(美国城市); clinically:adv.临床地;门诊部地;不偏不倚;通过临床诊断; relevant:adj.相关的;切题的;中肯的;有重大关系的;有意义的,目的明确的; tumors:n.肿瘤(tumor的复数); prognosis:n.[医]预后;预知; cancer:n.癌症;恶性肿瘤;
|
| Very similarly , in Stanford, a group there announced that, looking at tissues under magnification , they've developed a machine learning-based system which in fact is better than human pathologists at predicting survival rates for cancer sufferers . |
同样的,在斯坦福 一个团队宣布通过用放大镜观察组织 开发了一个基于机器学习的系统 可以比病理学家更有效地 预测癌症患者的幸存率 |
|
similarly:adv.同样地;类似于; tissues:n.纸巾,手巾纸;(人、动植物细胞的)组织;(tissue的复数) magnification:n.放大;放大率;放大的复制品; pathologists:[病理]病理学家; predicting:v.预言;预告;预报;(predict的现在分词) survival:n.幸存,残存;幸存者,残存物; sufferers:n.患者;受害者;
|
| In both of these cases, not only were the predictions more accurate , but they generated new insightful science. |
在这两个例子中,不仅预测更加准确 而且他们创造了新的科学视角 |
|
predictions:n.预测,预言(prediction复数形式); accurate:adj.精确的; insightful:adj.有深刻见解的,富有洞察力的;
|
| In the radiology case, they were new clinical indicators that humans can understand. |
在放射学中 新视角是人类可以明白的新临床表现 |
|
radiology:n.放射学;放射线科;X光线学; indicators:n.指示信号;标志;指针;方向灯;(indicator的复数)
|
| In this pathology case, the computer system actually discovered that the cells around the cancer are as important as the cancer cells themselves in making a diagnosis . |
在病理学中 电脑发现癌细胞周围的细胞 在诊断中同癌细胞一样重要 |
|
pathology:n.病理(学);(比喻)异常状态; diagnosis:n.诊断;
|
| This is the opposite of what pathologists had been taught for decades. |
这和病理学家几十年来的教学是相反的 |
| In each of those two cases, they were systems developed by a combination of medical experts and machine learning experts, but as of last year, we're now beyond that too. |
这两个案例中的系统都是由 医学专家和机器学习专家共同开发的 去年我们就已经超过了这个水平 |
|
combination:n.结合;组合;联合;[化学]化合;
|
| This is an example of identifying cancerous areas of human tissue under a microscope . |
这个是用显微镜识别 组织癌变区的例子 |
|
identifying:n.识别,标识;标识关系;v.识别;(identify的现在分词) cancerous:adj.癌的;生癌的;像癌的; microscope:n.显微镜;
|
| The system being shown here can identify those areas more accurately , or about as accurately , as human pathologists, but was built entirely with deep learning using no medical expertise by people who have no background in the field. |
所显示的这个系统能够与病理学专家同样准确地识别癌变区 甚至比病理专家更准确 但是建立系统的都是深度学习的专家 没有一个医学专家 |
|
accurately:adv.精确地,准确地; expertise:n.专门知识;专门技术;专家的意见;
|
| Similarly, here, this neuron segmentation . |
类似的,这是神经细胞分裂 |
|
neuron:n.[解剖]神经元,神经单位; segmentation:n.分割;割断;细胞分裂;
|
| We can now segment neurons about as accurately as humans can, but this system was developed with deep learning using people with no previous background in medicine. |
我们已经可以和人类一样准确地分裂细胞 但这是个深度学习系统 没有一个开发者拥有医学背景 |
| So myself, as somebody with no previous background in medicine, |
对于我这个完全没有医学背景的人来说 |
| I seem to be entirely well qualified to start a new medical company, which I did. |
看起来我也完全可以开一个医药公司 我确实这么做了 |
|
qualified:adj.有资格的; v.合格; (qualify的过去分词和过去式)
|
| I was kind of terrified of doing it, but the theory seemed to suggest that it ought to be possible to do very useful medicine using just these data analytic techniques . |
我开始有点不知所措 但理论上说这件事是可行的 用这些数据分析技术制作医药 |
|
analytic:adj.分析的;解析的;善于分析的; techniques:n.技巧;技艺;工艺;技术;(technique的复数)
|
| And thankfully , the feedback has been fantastic , not just from the media but from the medical community, who have been very supportive . |
所幸的是,反响非常好 不仅是媒体的,包括医药行业 都很支持 |
|
thankfully:adv.感谢地;感激地; feedback:n.反馈;反馈意见;回授;[电子]反馈; fantastic:奇异的,空想的 media:n.媒体;媒质(medium的复数);血管中层;浊塞音;中脉; supportive:adj.支持的;支援的;赞助的;
|
| The theory is that we can take the middle part of the medical process and turn that into data analysis as much as possible, leaving doctors to do what they're best at. |
理论表明我们可以将制药的中间过程 充分转换成数据分析 让医生去做他们最擅长的 |
|
analysis:n.分析;分解;验定;
|
| I want to give you an example. |
我有一个例子 |
| It now takes us about 15 minutes to generate a new medical diagnostic test and I'll show you that in real time now, but I've compressed it down to three minutes by cutting some pieces out. |
制作一个医学诊断测试需要十五分钟 我会给你们实际展示 但是我去掉了一部分,把它压缩到了三分钟 |
|
diagnostic:adj.诊断的;特征的;n.诊断法;诊断结论; compressed:adj.(空气或气体)压缩的; v.(被)压紧; (compress的过去式和过去分词)
|
| Rather than showing you creating a medical diagnostic test, |
不要医学诊断试验 |
| I'm going to show you a diagnostic test of car images, because that's something we can all understand. |
我要给你们展示制作一个汽车图片的诊断测试 因为这个我们都能懂 |
| So here we're starting with about 1.5 million car images, and I want to create something that can split them into the angle of the photo that's being taken. |
现在我们有150万张汽车图片 我想要根据拍照的角度 对他们进行分类 |
|
split:v.分离;使分离;劈开;离开;分解;n.劈开;裂缝;adj.劈开的;
|
| So these images are entirely unlabeled , so I have to start from scratch . |
这些图片完全没有标签,所以我要先对他们进行简单描述 |
|
unlabeled:无标号的;未标记的;未贴标签的; start from scratch:从头开始;白手起家;从起跑线开始;
|
| With our deep learning algorithm, it can automatically identify areas of structure in these images. |
有深度学习算法 它可以自动识别图片的结构要素 |
|
automatically:adv.自动地;机械地;无意识地;adj.不经思索的; structure:n.结构;构造;建筑物;vt.组织;构成;建造;
|
| So the nice thing is that the human and the computer can now work together. |
令人高兴的是人和电脑可以合作 |
| So the human, as you can see here, is telling the computer about areas of interest which it wants the computer then to try and use to improve its algorithm. |
你可以看到,这个人 正在告诉电脑什么是感兴趣的要素 为之后电脑用来完善算法 |
|
improve:v.改进;改善;
|
| Now, these deep learning systems actually are in 16,000-dimensional space, so you can see here the computer rotating this through that space, trying to find new areas of structure. |
现在,这些深度学习算法处在16,000维空间中 所以你看到电脑让他们在这个空间中旋转 尝试找到新的结构要素 |
|
rotating:v.(使)旋转,转动;(工作)由…轮值;(rotate的现在分词)
|
| And when it does so successfully, the human who is driving it can then point out the areas that are interesting. |
当他成功时 开车的人就可以指出感兴趣的要素 |
| So here, the computer has successfully found areas, for example, angles. |
现在电脑成功找出这些要素 比如,角度 |
| So as we go through this process, we're gradually telling the computer more and more about the kinds of structures we're looking for. |
我们在这个过程中 逐渐的告诉电脑更多 我们想寻找的结构 |
|
gradually:adv.渐渐地;逐步地; structures:n.结构; v.建造(structure的第三人称单数形式);
|
| You can imagine in a diagnostic test this would be a pathologist identifying areas of pathosis , for example, or a radiologist indicating potentially troublesome nodules . |
你可以想象一个诊断测试 这就像是病理学家识别病态区域 或者放射学专家找出潜在的问题囊肿 |
|
pathosis:n.病态; radiologist:n.放射线研究者; indicating:v.表明;显示;象征;暗示;(indicate的现在分词) potentially:adv.可能地,潜在地; troublesome:adj.麻烦的;讨厌的;使人苦恼的; nodules:n.结节(nodule的复数);小瘤;
|
| And sometimes it can be difficult for the algorithm. |
有时候这对算法来说有些难度 |
| In this case, it got kind of confused . |
我们的例子就比较麻烦 |
|
confused:adj.困惑的; v.使糊涂; (confuse的过去分词和过去式)
|
| The fronts and the backs of the cars are all mixed up. |
车的正面和背面全部混淆了 |
| So here we have to be a bit more careful, manually selecting these fronts as opposed to the backs, then telling the computer that this is a type of group that we're interested in. |
所以我们要仔细一些 人工地选出正面和背面 人后告诉电脑这是我们所感兴趣的一类 |
|
manually:adv.手动地;用手; opposed:adj.强烈反对; v.反对(计划、政策等); (oppose的过去分词和过去式)
|
| So we do that for a while , we skip over a little bit, and then we train the machine learning algorithm based on these couple of hundred things, and we hope that it's gotten a lot better. |
做这件事花了一些时间,所以我们跳过 之后我们用这几百个东西 训练机器学习算法 希望他会有很大进步 |
|
for a while:adv.片刻;暂时;一会儿;一时;
|
| You can see, it's now started to fade some of these pictures out, showing us that it already is recognizing how to understand some of these itself. |
你能看到,它正在消退一些图片 说明他已经开始可以自己理解这些图片了 |
|
fade:v.褪色; adj.平淡的; n.[电影][电视]淡出; recognizing:v.认识;认出;承认;接受,赞成(recognize的现在分词)
|
| We can then use this concept of similar images, and using similar images, you can now see, the computer at this point is able to entirely find just the fronts of cars. |
我们可以用相似图片的概念 用相似的图片,你可以看到 电脑现在能够只找出正面的车 |
| So at this point, the human can tell the computer, okay, yes, you've done a good job of that. |
在这个时候,人可以告诉电脑 对的,没错,你做的很好 |
| Sometimes, of course, even at this point it's still difficult to separate out groups. |
当然,有时,即使在这个阶段 分组仍然是很困难的 |
| In this case, even after we let the computer try to rotate this for a while, we still find that the left sides and the right sides pictures are all mixed up together. |
像我们这里,让电脑在这里旋转了一段时间了 我们还是看到左面的和右面的 图片有混淆 |
|
rotate:v.旋转;转动;轮换;使…轮流;
|
| So we can again give the computer some hints , and we say, okay, try and find a projection that separates out the left sides and the right sides as much as possible using this deep learning algorithm. |
所以我们可以再一次给电脑一些提示 我们让它通过深度学习算法 尽可能分离出左面和右面的图片 |
|
hints:n.暗示,提示(hint的复数形式);v.暗示,示意(hint的单三形式); projection:n.投射;规划;突出;发射;推测;
|
| And giving it that hint -- ah, okay, it's been successful. |
有了这个指示——好的,它已经完成了 |
| It's managed to find a way of thinking about these objects that's separated out these together. |
它要想办法分开这一部分 |
| So you get the idea here. |
你现在知道了 |
| This is a case not where the human is being replaced by a computer, but where they're working together. |
这不是电脑取代人类 而是一起合作 |
| What we're doing here is we're replacing something that used to take a team of five or six people about seven years and replacing it with something that takes 15 minutes for one person acting alone. |
我们在做的是将过去需要五六人的团队用七年时间做的事情 变成只需一个人花十五分钟 就能完成 |
| So this process takes about four or five iterations . |
这个过程需要四到五次反复 |
|
iterations:n.迭代次数;反复(iteration的复数);
|
| You can see we now have 62 percent of our 1.5 million images classified correctly. |
你可以看到我们已经 将150万张图片的62%正确分类 |
|
classified:adj.机密的; v.将…分类; (classify的过去分词和过去式)
|
| And at this point, we can start to quite quickly grab whole big sections, check through them to make sure that there's no mistakes. |
现在我们就可以快速 地检查整个分组 确保没有错误 |
|
grab:v.攫取;霸占;将…深深吸引;n.攫取;霸占;夺取之物;
|
| Where there are mistakes, we can let the computer know about them. |
如果哪里有错误,我们可以告诉电脑 |
| And using this kind of process for each of the different groups, we are now up to an 80 percent success rate in classifying the 1.5 million images. |
每个分组我们都这样做 现在这150万张图片 已经达到80%的成功率 |
|
classifying:v.将…分类;将…归类;划分;界定;(classify的现在分词)
|
| And at this point, it's just a case of finding the small number that aren't classified correctly, and trying to understand why. |
现在这个阶段 只需要找出几个不正确的分类 并让电脑明白为什么 |
| And using that approach , by 15 minutes we get to 97 percent classification rates. |
到了这个步骤 十五分钟后我们达到了97%的正确率 |
|
approach:n.方法;路径;v.接近;建议;着手处理; classification:n.分类;分级;分类法;归类;
|
| So this kind of technique could allow us to fix a major problem, which is that there's a lack of medical expertise in the world. |
这种技术能帮助我们解决一个问题 医疗专家不足的问题 |
| The World Economic Forum says that there's between a 10x and a 20x shortage of physicians in the developing world, and it would take about 300 years to train enough people to fix that problem. |
世界经济论坛表明,在发展中国家, 内科医生有十倍到二十倍的短缺 而弥补这一短缺需要300年的时间 |
|
Economic:adj.经济的,经济上的;经济学的; Forum:n.论坛,讨论会;法庭;公开讨论的广场; shortage:n.短缺;不足;缺少; physicians:n.[内科]内科医生(physician的复数);
|
| So imagine if we can help enhance their efficiency using these deep learning approaches ? |
所以想象一下,是否我们能够用 深度学习的方法帮助他们提高效率？ |
|
enhance:v.提高;增强;增进; efficiency:n.效率;效能;功效; approaches:v.靠近,接近; n.方式,方法,态度;
|
| So I'm very excited about the opportunities. |
我对这个机会表示很激动 |
| I'm also concerned about the problems. |
我同样的担心一些问题 |
|
concerned:adj.有关的;关心的;v.关心;与…有关;(concern的过去时和过去分词)
|
| The problem here is that every area in blue on this map is somewhere where services are over 80 percent of employment . |
问题是在这张地图上的蓝色区域内 服务占就业的80%以上 |
|
employment:n.使用;职业;雇用;
|
| What are services? |
什么是服务？ |
| These are services. |
这些是服务 |
| These are also the exact things that computers have just learned how to do. |
这些也是电脑才刚刚开始学习的事情 |
| So 80 percent of the world's employment in the developed world is stuff that computers have just learned how to do. |
也就是说世界上发达国家的80%的就业 是电脑刚开始学习的 |
| What does that mean? |
这是什么意思？ |
| Well, it'll be fine. They'll be replaced by other jobs. |
其实也没什么大不了的,他们会被其他职业替代 |
| For example, there will be more jobs for data scientists. |
比如说会有更多的数据学家 |
| Well, not really. |
也不尽然 |
| It doesn't take data scientists very long to build these things. |
数据学家不需要太久的时间做这些事 |
| For example, these four algorithms were all built by the same guy. |
比如这四个算法都是同时一个人开发的 |
| So if you think, oh, it's all happened before, we've seen the results in the past of when new things come along and they get replaced by new jobs, what are these new jobs going to be? |
如果你认为这些曾经都发生过 我们看到过新的事物出现 然后被新的职业所取代 那这些新的职业又会是什么？ |
| It's very hard for us to estimate this, because human performance grows at this gradual rate, but we now have a system, deep learning, that we know actually grows in capability exponentially . |
很难做出估计 因为人的能力以这个均匀的速度增长 但是现在我们有了深度学习系统 它的能力以指数方式增长 |
|
estimate:v.估计;估算;估价;n.估价;(对大小、数量、成本等的)估计;估计的成本; capability:n.才能,能力;性能,容量; exponentially:adv.以指数方式;
|
| And we're here. |
我们现在在这 |
| So currently , we see the things around us and we say, "Oh, computers are still pretty dumb ." Right? |
目前,我们看周围的事物 会说:“电脑还是很笨。”对吧？ |
|
currently:adv.当前;一般地; dumb:adj.哑的,无说话能力的;不说话的,无声音的;
|
| But in five years' time, computers will be off this chart. |
但是在五年内,电脑会超出这张图 |
| So we need to be starting to think about this capability right now. |
所以我们现在要开始考虑这样的能力了 |
| We have seen this once before, of course. |
当然,我们曾经见过这个 |
| In the Industrial Revolution , we saw a step change in capability thanks to engines. |
在工业革命时期 发动机让生产力迈进一大步 |
|
Industrial Revolution:n.工业革命; step change:n.巨大变化;显著进步(或改善);
|
| The thing is, though, that after a while, things flattened out. |
然而问题是,一段时间之后,形势转平了 |
|
flattened:adj.没精打采的;垂头丧气的;v.平整;打倒(flatten的过去分词);
|
| There was social disruption , but once engines were used to generate power in all the situations, things really settled down. |
是由于社会的破坏 但当发动机被普遍应用时 一切都稳定下来了 |
|
disruption:n.破坏,毁坏;分裂,瓦解; settled:adj.稳定的; v.结束; (settle的过去分词和过去式)
|
| The Machine Learning Revolution is going to be very different from the Industrial Revolution, because the Machine Learning Revolution, it never settles down. |
机器学习革命 将和工业革命有很大不同 因为机器学习革命不会停止 |
|
settles:v.结束;解决;决定,确定;定居;n.高背长椅;(settle的第三人称单数和复数)
|
| The better computers get at intellectual activities, the more they can build better computers to be better at intellectual capabilities, so this is going to be a kind of change |
电脑越擅长智能活动 它们越能制造出更加擅长智能活动的电脑 这将会是世界 |
|
intellectual:n.知识分子;脑力劳动者;adj.智力的;脑力的;理智的;有才智的;
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| that the world has actually never experienced before, so your previous understanding of what's possible is different. |
从未经历过的改变 所以你之前理解的可能性是不一样的 |
| This is already impacting us. |
这正在影响我们的生活 |
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impacting:[力]冲击;[力]撞击;[物]碰撞(impact的现在分词);
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| In the last 25 years, as capital productivity has increased, labor productivity has been flat, in fact even a little bit down. |
在过去的25年里,随着资本生产力的增加 劳动生产力在变缓,甚至下降 |
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productivity:n.生产力;生产率;生产能力;
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| So I want us to start having this discussion now. |
所以我希望可以发起大家的讨论 |
| I know that when I often tell people about this situation, people can be quite dismissive . |
我知道当我和人们讲述这样的处境时 人们往往表现出不以为然 |
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dismissive:adj.表示轻视的;解雇的;
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| Well, computers can't really think, they don't emote , they don't understand poetry , we don't really understand how they work. |
电脑不会思考 它们没有情感,也不懂诗 它们甚至都不知道自己是如何运作的 |
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emote:vi.夸张地表现感情; poetry:n.诗;诗意,诗情;诗歌艺术;
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| So what? |
那又怎样？ |
| Computers right now can do the things that humans spend most of their time being paid to do, so now's the time to start thinking about how we're going to adjust our social structures and economic structures to be aware of this new reality. |
电脑现在可以做 人类用大部分有偿的劳动时间做的事情 所以现在该到我们思考 我们将如何调整我们的社会结构和经济结构 来应对新形势 |
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adjust:v.调整;调节;适应;习惯;
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| Thank you. |
谢谢 |
| (Applause) |
（鼓掌） |